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Broncos RB. (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Eminence
- Start date
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I think we see a committee.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
McGahee and Moreno are competing for one roster spot. It'll be a huge shock if both make the team, since neither plays special teams. My money's on Moreno, because he's younger and cheaper.
Hillman and Ball are both locks for the roster, and Jacob Hester would probably be my guess for the 4th RB spot on the team. Whoever the 4th RB winds up being (Hester or Lance Ball, probably), he's not going to be a factor in the running game. It's strictly going to be Montee Ball, Ronnie Hillman, and whoever wins the Moreno/McGahee battle. I think the coaching staff views Hillman as a CoP, but Cecil says he's been hearing a lot of praise for him from the coaching staff. He's bulked up a little bit- mostly in the upper body- but his biggest advantage will just be getting another offseason in the conditioning program. Hillman was all the way down to 180 pounds by the end of last season, which isn't extremely uncommon for rookies (Portis dropped down into the 180s as a rookie, too). As he builds more of an NFL body, the weight will stick better during the season.
If I were betting today, I'd bet on Montee Ball leading the Broncos in carries. It's not a lock, but my reading of the tea leaves suggests he's the leader in the clubhouse. Second choice would probably be Moreno, then Hillman, then McGahee.
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Touchdown There
Footballguy
Consensus seems to be that McGahee will be cut. I originally thought they would start Moreno at the beginning of the year, until Ball was seasoned, but Moreno has been hurt. I also think that Peyton works well with rookie rbs who are eager to learn. Interesting situation because of the value of the starting Broncos rb in 2012.
Loved Ball at Wisconsin (Badger fan here) ... super smart dude that excelled in a similar blocking scheme.
Calling my shot now ... I think he's going to shock the world with mid/low RB2 numbers and be in the discussion for offensive rookie of the year (due in large part to the guy behind center and the talent around him on offense). There's not a better rookie fantasy play out there this year. I plan on targeting him around the 6th round in drafts, and I think he'll easily be there. Unless he gets hyped up you might be able to get him in 7th-10th. PFF has him around RB42, which I think is too low.
230 carries / 1050 yards / 30 rec / 250 yards ~8 total TDs
Calling my shot now ... I think he's going to shock the world with mid/low RB2 numbers and be in the discussion for offensive rookie of the year (due in large part to the guy behind center and the talent around him on offense). There's not a better rookie fantasy play out there this year. I plan on targeting him around the 6th round in drafts, and I think he'll easily be there. Unless he gets hyped up you might be able to get him in 7th-10th. PFF has him around RB42, which I think is too low.
230 carries / 1050 yards / 30 rec / 250 yards ~8 total TDs
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He's already pretty hyped up as it is and I don't think those kind of numbers would shock anyone really. I still think Le'Veon Bell is a better rookie fantasy play this year though.
I'm very high on Bell, I just don't know if the Steelers know wtf they're doing when it comes to running the ball. The continual 'run up the middle, get stuffed, run up the middle, get stuffed, run up the middle' stuff was ridonkulous at times.
Mr Non Sequitur
Footballguy
FYI, you might want to click or find the Montee Ball thread. In all seriousness despite John Fox's track record I am willing to make an exception because I believe Elway is trying desperately to recreate what he knows to win championships. It didn't take long for him to go out and find someone to play his role at QB in Peyton Manning, perhaps the only person who could fill those shoes. Ball has been walked around town by Manning who is treating him like a kid brother right now and Manning is on record as saying that Ball "will not be brought along slowly." Now you can say that's just coach speak but that would be unwise as I haven't seen Manning talk up a rookie like this before. I expect Ball to see a lot of work between the 20s. By Week 6 he will be the clear starter in Denver. He is being taught pass protection personally by Manning thru reading defenses. Ball may not be the most gifted athlete ever but he's smart and they are loading him up with a lot more than probably any other rookie right now including Bernard in Cinci.
Do as you like but the smart money right now is on Ball. By the 2nd or 3rd week of camp his stock could rise a lot. Good Luck
Do as you like but the smart money right now is on Ball. By the 2nd or 3rd week of camp his stock could rise a lot. Good Luck
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Those numbers should be shocking... 1300 yards for a rookie is no cake-walk, especially for a pass-first team. And the fact that he'll likely not be full-time for the first 4-5 games as he is adjusting to the speed of the pro game. McGahee didn't hit that many total yards on a run-first team with Tebow at the helm back in 2011.
I think the bulk of those stats will be in the last ten games of the year, so on a PPG basis he is going to be a very good performer for whoever gets him. In the leagues that I don't draft him, I will likely try to trade for him after he has a couple of middling yardage weeks to start the year.
McGahee is going to be cut. Likely there will be an open line of communication to bring him back if Ball falls on his face. That kind of stuff happens a lot with veterans. The Pats cut Stallworth half a dozen times but never moved stuff from his locker. And I don't see any other team jumping to sign McGahee.
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Shutout
Footballguy
When it counts during the fantasy playoff run, it will be Moreno.
I'm not going to get into a hash-slinging contest or crank out a disertation about it but, to me, its pretty clear:
You've got a team completely in win-now mode with a small window.
You've got a rookie Rb who is playing for a coach who has never, ever put as much trust into a rookie RB as what is being said. Saying in May is one thing; seeing the history of what he has always done in September-December is another. Just like people say every day around here that the leopard Andy Reid won't change his spots in KC, it won't happen with Fox either.
If people leave out their biases, they will accept the fact that a great deal of the hype around Ball is largely influenced by this particular landing spot, McGahee being older, Moreno being historically nicked up. He is being overhyped.
Moreno excels (and showed it down the stretch last season) at what Manning wants and needs.
When the rubber hits the road and the season grinds out, Moreno will be the guy you want at the end of the year, just like last year.
I'm not going to get into a hash-slinging contest or crank out a disertation about it but, to me, its pretty clear:
You've got a team completely in win-now mode with a small window.
You've got a rookie Rb who is playing for a coach who has never, ever put as much trust into a rookie RB as what is being said. Saying in May is one thing; seeing the history of what he has always done in September-December is another. Just like people say every day around here that the leopard Andy Reid won't change his spots in KC, it won't happen with Fox either.
If people leave out their biases, they will accept the fact that a great deal of the hype around Ball is largely influenced by this particular landing spot, McGahee being older, Moreno being historically nicked up. He is being overhyped.
Moreno excels (and showed it down the stretch last season) at what Manning wants and needs.
When the rubber hits the road and the season grinds out, Moreno will be the guy you want at the end of the year, just like last year.
Just thought it was worth mentioning that Denver ranked #3 in the NFL in RB rushes with 449. I haven't made my mind up on this one, so I can't contribute much else. I'm in the same vein of thought as shutout - Moreno appears to be a perfect fit for this offense. It's hard to discern what is worth listening to with all the offseason fluff. Am I going to kick myself for not listening or am I going to kick myself for believing it? Given Fox's history, Moreno's hands and pass blocking, and the bust rate for second round rookie RBs, the prudent move would be to spend that 6th round pick elsewhere and gamble a 14th on Moreno.meyerj31 said:
Also, why did this thread ever get started? There is a completely empty spotlight for this exact topic: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=682257
Faust
MVP
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Don Quixote
Footballguy
Adam Harstad
Moderator
I don't understand predictions like this. If you think the guy is the best, he'll probably win the job. If 3 months of camps and preseason wasn't enough for him to do so, then 4 weeks of NFL games probably won't be, either. If Ball is not the opening-week starter, I will be pessimistic about his prospects of gaining the starting job any time soon, barring injury or underperformance ahead of him, or near-miraculous play from Ball himself.Faust said:
Tackling Dummies
Footballguy
Tempest in a tea pot. The article looked like he was phoning in a requirement for column inches.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
It seems like people are only looking at the John Fox side of the equation and not the Peyton Manning side. I get that Fox historically has trusted vets over rookies out of the backfield. But Manning doesn't seem to have the same concerns. Over his career in IND, Manning had Edge suit up and play a ton as a rookie (2139/17), Rhodes played well as a rookie when Edge went down (1328/9 in mostly 10 games), and Addai was also pretty productive his first season (1406/8).
Rhodes and Addai certainly did not have the same pedigree that James had, yet they both seemed to put up decent numbers and did not appear to struggle in picking up the offense or with pass protection schemes. IMO, if Manning wants Ball to be the main guy, I suspect Ball will get a lot of the reps.
Rhodes and Addai certainly did not have the same pedigree that James had, yet they both seemed to put up decent numbers and did not appear to struggle in picking up the offense or with pass protection schemes. IMO, if Manning wants Ball to be the main guy, I suspect Ball will get a lot of the reps.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
When Edge suited up, marshall faulk was gone and the cupboard was bare.
I dont recall if Edge and Addai over lapped.
Moonlight
Footballguy
this is what might get Moreno more work then expected. He's a great receiver and blocker. No matter what Ball does he isn't going to be a better receiver and I highly doubt he'll be as good of a blocker as Moreno his rookie year.
Shutout
Footballguy
This is why people are are sleeping on Moreno, yet again. Every year, it seems like people can't help from chasing the shiny. Ball might be a very good ff player to own but he is absolutely going to be over drafted this season
Anarchy99
Footballguy
If Moreno is such a valued commodity, why was he a healthy scratch for 6 weeks last year? It certainly looks like he was the last man standing in terms of RB options. Isn't this the team that opted to try for Lawrence Maroney? Is any of that a vote of confidence in Moreno? IMO, Moreno is an old regime player and not the choice of the new administration.
Buffaloes
Footballguy
I don't see what Josh McDaniels trading for Laurence Maroney (to fill in for an injured
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
They added Maroney in 2010 when Moreno had a minor injury. They added McGahee in 2011. They drafted Hillman last year and Ball this year. Where in that are we to conclude that Moreno is the guy that is going to emerge, seeing how the team has added a RB EVERY YEAR since they drafted Moreno (even if the coaching staff and team leadership has changed).
Buffaloes
Footballguy
No, McDaniels added Maroney in 2010 when Moreno had a nagging training camp hammy injury that flared up again in week 2. I wouldn't say 'they' added Maroney because virtually no one left from that regime is left in the FO.
They did add McGahee in 2011 and proceeded to draft RBs in the early to midrounds in the past 2 drafts. I'd point to that as evidence, and I'd agree that evidence points to Denver moving past relying on KM.
But the Maroney pickup has absolutely no bearing on how this regime views Moreno. He was picked up when Moreno was hurt. Moreno's first week back from that injury coincided with Maroney's final game played as a Bronco. I think Ball will be as close as it comes to being the guy in 2013, but that has nothing to do with Maroney being signed by a different staff while KM was injured 3 years ago.
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Beerguzzler
Footballguy
You guys need to see the writing on the wall in regards to Moreno. It's fairly clear to see it when you take a RB in the 2nd round. It's even clearer to see when Manning takes the guy under his wing to get him ready for the season and breaks down film with him.
Moreno is exactly what he is, an injury handcuff to Ball.
If anyone needs more evidence just watch him play.
Moreno is exactly what he is, an injury handcuff to Ball.
If anyone needs more evidence just watch him play.
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The only hope here for Moreno owners is that Ball is slow to pickup pass-blocking, Manning doesn't tolerate that ####.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DttfyOeU3vw
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DttfyOeU3vw
bostonfred
Footballguy
Happens all the time. Coaches see a lot of stuff they like with their rookie RB in practice and preseason, but when people are hitting for realsies, they get gunshy about giving 20 carries and who knows how many blocking assignments to a guy who has never faced NFL competition in a live game.I traded a lot to get Ball in my dynasty league, and will be targetting him in my other leagues as well, but not as a week 1 starter. I'll start my WR4 in a flex over Ball until I see something from him in a real NFL game. I love his potential this year - he's one of the very few players I can see getting 4 TDs in a game in weeks 15 and 16 since the team will be looking to protect Manning for the playoff run and establish the run so they can make opponents think twice about how to defend Manning in the playoffs. But coaches are real people who have real fears and I think most coaches will take a little time before throwing their rookie - and their franchise QB - to the proverbial wolves.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
If Moreno were the ideal third down back, wouldn't DEN have used him in that role last year with Manning?
Not if his knee wasn't healthy (which could also be a problem this year, if his recovery doesn't go well).
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Moreno was a healthy scratch several weeks last year (like 6 times) and only got a chance to play because he was the only healthy back later in the season. But that happened in Week 12. As I see things, Moreno is not a back the current coaching staff really endorses, as they've now drafted Ball and Hillman in consecutive drafts.
I'm not saying the coaching staff endorses Moreno (or that they don't); just that his knee wasn't healthy. He played in the first few games, didn't look good, and was subsequently scratched. He wasn't missing practice time, so he wasn't in the injury report, so when he didn't play, he was seen as a "healthy scratch," but there was no reason to have him active if he wasn't 100%. McGahee was carrying the load (and he is very capable at pass-blocking & catching), Moreno doesn't play ST (while Hillman, Ball, and Gronkowski do) and NFL teams don't usually keep 5 RBs active on game day, THAT is why Moreno was scratched, not because he isn't suited for 3rd down duties.
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Faust
MVP
ROYALWITCHEESE
Footballguy
I don't think so. When I watch Ball's film, I am reminded a lot of Moreno's Georgia film. To me, they look like the same player. Moreno is likely much better in pass pro, but Ball is likely to be healthier. Other than that I see two guys who aren't overly big or fast, who catch well, and need a lot of moves to pick up yards.Eminence said:
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I'll ask the following question again. From the time he was drafted, when has Moreno been looked at to be a candidate as a heavy load back for the Broncos? For whatever reason, since he was drafted, DEN went on to add Correll Buckhalter, Lamont Jordan, Lawrence Maroney, Lance Ball, Willis McGahee, Jacob Hester, Ronnie Hillman, and now Montee Ball. Wouldn't it stand to reason that if Moreno were the anointed one that the team would not constantly be looking for RBs?
I realize there have been 3 head coaches in that timeframe, but one has to wonder if Moreno is really viewed as a lead RB candidate. Is there any reason 4 years later, after multiple injuries, time missed, a limited workload, and seemingly only getting the ball when there were no other options, that Moreno will start the season at the head of the list and be a bell cow running back?
I realize there have been 3 head coaches in that timeframe, but one has to wonder if Moreno is really viewed as a lead RB candidate. Is there any reason 4 years later, after multiple injuries, time missed, a limited workload, and seemingly only getting the ball when there were no other options, that Moreno will start the season at the head of the list and be a bell cow running back?
I tend to agree with this. The problem is that it is really tough to make a great argument for any of the RB's on the team being viewed this year as the lead RB candidate. With Ball, you have the whole Fox history with Rookie RBs ( http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=historyofjohnfoxrookierunningbacks ), Hillman seems like he has potential and the team traded up last year to get him, but when McGahee was injured they went to Moreno instead. Then you have Moreno, who you make a great argument against.
So maybe this is just RBBC. That is certainly a possibility. But if one of these guys does end up being the lead back by a significant margin they will have tremendous value this year. It is just a matter of who that will be if anyone.
Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
I'm bullish on the Broncos RB. Not sure who it is, but even if I overspend a bit to get them all, I think the benefits will outweigh the risks.
Calling it now: The key to my 2013 fantasy season.
Calling it now: The key to my 2013 fantasy season.
Shutout
Footballguy
We tend to always blame the player and never the organization for not realizing what they have. Lots of players get overlooked in their current situation and flourish in other locations or when finally pressed into service due to the organization's perception of they have nothing else to lean on.I will not say I think Moreno is the bee's knees but I have noticed that in the few times that the team has used him for a month or so at a time, he is a top 12 or so fantasy RB and that is nothing to sneeze at.
For whatever reason, Moreno seems to get no shot at making this job his. But the same can be said of Thomas Jones for years and DWIL and JStew at times and lots and lots of other players.
So, bottom line, I'm not going to do like most and say Moreno is just simply not good. I, instead, think he is misused and I recognize his value should his opportunity arise again and for that reason, I clearly see the strong value in the Denver RB; I just have no idea who that is (but I am betting on Moreno just as much as any of the others based on his ability to play that role that Manning needs and play it well).
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
I'm not knocking Moreno. I've rostered him pretty much every year in one league or another. His talent may be better or worse than he's shown, but as you pointed out, he's been pretty productive when he finally got in the line up. The poster boy I used to point at as EXHIBIT A in terms of how well he did when he finally got the football was Mewelde Moore. He had 15 touches in a game 14 times and had over 100 yfs in 11 of them, averaging 124 yfs in those games.
Moreno hasn't been quite as good in his 27 games with 15 touches, as he hit the 100 yfs mark 13 times in the those games (but still averaged 101 yfs in those games).
LawFitz
Footballguy
And if it turns into a full blown RBBC (a fairly decent probability), you've blown three roster spots and one decently high pick. I think the odds of a 3-headed monster are much higher early than late, but by then, it might be too late for your squad. If I go this route of thinking, I'll probably only roster two of three and hope for the best. Probably Ball/Moreno, since I view Hillman as the least likely to get a fantasy starter's load this year.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I guess it depends on how many spots you have on a roster. In a redraft, I took Ball as my 4th RB. If he ends up at some point getting the lion's share of the work, I can wait until then.
I agree with your logic, but it also depends on your league. Ball's ADP is 46 which means most people would have to go RB-RB-RB-RB to land him as their 4th running back. I doubt you did this, but suspect you landed him so late due to fortunate circumstances rather than the number of spots on your roster.
Pigskin Fanatic
Footballguy
Talking to some of the guys I play with who are football fans more than hardcore fantasy guys, they seem to be shying away from this situation due to the potential RBBC. I venture to guess in many leagues that draft early, like in the next few weeks before camps are in full force, you can get Ball much later than this. This is probably even more true in redrafts anyway.FF Ninja said:
Buffaloes
Footballguy
I think Ball is the better player in real life and will be the better fantasy back.Anarchy99 said:
Now that that is out of the way, the answer to your question is he looked like a fine RB from the week after McGahee went down all the way until Moreno himself was hurt in the divisional round last year. He was a completely different RB from the one who couldn't find a hole, had zero patience, couldn't keep his feet under him, and the guy who took himself out of the game after a huge 8 yard scamper. The Broncos trusted him enough to give him more 20+ carry games than McGahee last year. I don't think he'll have to carry the load, but in a pinch he has proven to be up to the task at least for a handful of games.
Moreno is an ideal 3rd down RB. He wasn't used as one because he looked terrible the 1st 2 weeks last year. He's always had good hands, though and he's the best pass-blocking back on the roster. He grew a lot while being a healthy scratch. No, I don't think he's going to be the guy. That, imo, will eventually be Ball. But Moreno's game fits really well for a 3rd-down RB in this offence and I expect that (hold your breath), barring injury, he'll hold that role down to begin the season. I'm not sure anyone in here is saying Moreno is going to be a 'bell cow' RB.
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