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ComfortablyNumb

Official Tom Brady - bust alert (in 2013)

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I've always liked Brady and have targeted him in prior years, including his 50 TD-Pass season. But I'll be avoiding him like the plague this year. He has an alarming lack of proven skill position talent behind his "Big-3" of Amendola, Gronk, and Hernandez, and each of those three have a terrible injury history/risk. Nobody to stretch the field.

I know Belichek & Brady have always managed to get the most out of marginal talent, but when one or two of the Big-3 are sidelined, I just don't see where Top 5 QB stats can come from. Even Teblow could vulture a few TD's if they use him in a goal-line package. I'm seeing 4500/30 as his ceiling with considerable downside risk...

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Saw something crazy today that really made me think....the top 4 WRs on the Pats depth chart weren't on the roster last year (no, I'm not counting Tebow as a WR, either).

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Where to begin with this . . .

The Pats will not be taking the ball out of Brady's hands and giving it to Tim Tebow, so that's a total non-issue.

Amendola at this point is a younger and slightly faster version of Welker. He had essentially 2 totally fluke injuries that mucked up two seasons, neither of which are likely to happen again. IMO, Amendola takes over for Welker and as far as that element goes they don't miss a beat. The slot position in NE has been a gravy train for years, as even Troy Brown notched 90-100 catches a year playing with Brady and averaged over 1000 yards receiving.

Gronk and Hernandez have always been injury risks. But now they also have Ballard, who is a capable TE in his own right. Those 3 combined will produce what the Pats usually get out of the TE spot.

Woodhead is gone and will be replaced with Vereen, who is more than capable and likely just as quick. Woodhead took over for Faulk, so I see that the 3rd down/COP role as one that is almost plug and play.

The only real true question mark IMO is having someone to fill the void left by Lloyd leaving in terms of total numbers. And Lloyd may not be totally out of the picture, as they could resign him in a heartbeat. The question becomes can Edelman, Dobson, and Boyce combined add up to what Lloyd produced last year.

Overall, I suspect the Pats will run a little more this year, especially if Gronk is not available to start the year. But I would not panic on the NE offense. People said Welker was a no name and would never do anything. People said Brady's numbers would never be close to the same without Moss. People said they would never be able to get a clutch receiver out of the backfield to replace Faulk. Literally all the names other than Brady have changed over the years, and I haven't seen much drop off offensively, have you?

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I've always liked Brady and have targeted in prior years, including his 50 TD-Pass season. But I'll be avoiding him like the plague this year. He has an alarming lack of proven skill position talent behind his "Big-3" of Amendola, Gronk, and Hernandez, and each of those three have a terrible injury history/risk. Nobody to stretch the field.

I know Belichek & Brady have always managed to get the most out of marginal talent, but when one or two of the Big-3 are sidelined, I just don't see where Top 5 QB stats can come from. Even Teblow could vulture a few TD's if they use him in a goal-line package. I'm seeing 4500/30 as his ceiling with considerable downside risk...

I agree here, and with the points you bring up the chances that Brady will have one of best year's this year is very slim... Brady will be closer to #10 qb in my opinion, and I think your 4500 yards, and 30 tds is a fair assessment

Where to begin with this . . .

The Pats will not be taking the ball out of Brady's hands and giving it to Tim Tebow, so that's a total non-issue.

Amendola at this point is a younger and slightly faster version of Welker. He had essentially 2 totally fluke injuries that mucked up two seasons, neither of which are likely to happen again. IMO, Amendola takes over for Welker and as far as that element goes they don't miss a beat. The slot position in NE has been a gravy train for years, as even Troy Brown notched 90-100 catches a year playing with Brady and averaged over 1000 yards receiving.

Gronk and Hernandez have always been injury risks. But now they also have Ballard, who is a capable TE in his own right. Those 3 combined will produce what the Pats usually get out of the TE spot.

Woodhead is gone and will be replaced with Vereen, who is more than capable and likely just as quick. Woodhead took over for Faulk, so I see that the 3rd down/COP role as one that is almost plug and play.

The only real true question mark IMO is having someone to fill the void left by Lloyd leaving in terms of total numbers. And Lloyd may not be totally out of the picture, as they could resign him in a heartbeat. The question becomes can Edelman, Dobson, and Boyce combined add up to what Lloyd produced last year.

Overall, I suspect the Pats will run a little more this year, especially if Gronk is not available to start the year. But I would not panic on the NE offense. People said Welker was a no name and would never do anything. People said Brady's numbers would never be close to the same without Moss. People said they would never be able to get a clutch receiver out of the backfield to replace Faulk. Literally all the names other than Brady have changed over the years, and I haven't seen much drop off offensively, have you?

I think you bring up some great points as well... although I think most everyone is skeptical of Amendola health concerns until he plays a full season without injury... I agree with you that the NE offense as a whole will most likely not skip a beat as they have plenty of weapons on offense... however, I do agree with the above post that Brady's number will drop this year.. the only way they are similar to last season is if Gronkowski magically is 100% by the beginning of the season and stays healthy for the entirety of the season.. other wise I think Comfortablynumb's assessment of Brady is pretty accurate, it is tough for any QB to do well with players that don't know the system as well and rookie WR's.. it would be silly to think that his numbers won't drop atleast some from last year given the WR corps from last year compared to this year..

Edited by DeaLerZ

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I've always liked Brady and have targeted in prior years, including his 50 TD-Pass season. But I'll be avoiding him like the plague this year. He has an alarming lack of proven skill position talent behind his "Big-3" of Amendola, Gronk, and Hernandez, and each of those three have a terrible injury history/risk. Nobody to stretch the field.

I know Belichek & Brady have always managed to get the most out of marginal talent, but when one or two of the Big-3 are sidelined, I just don't see where Top 5 QB stats can come from. Even Teblow could vulture a few TD's if they use him in a goal-line package. I'm seeing 4500/30 as his ceiling with considerable downside risk...

Quick ... without looking it up, who were Brady's wide receivers when he won three super bowls?

Hint: Not Welker or Moss.

QBs make the WRs. Not hesitating to nab Brady this year. It's June. Stop getting fancy. If Brady isn't injured then he is a complete beast. Last year NE ranked top 5 in rushing attempts and he still killed it fantasy-wise. And since when is NE's offense predicated on stretching the field? They've had one true field-stretcher in the past 10 years and they didn't win the Super Bowl with him on the roster.

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I think Brady is one of those guys that elevates those around him. Welker was nothing before he got to the Patriots. Troy Brown was already mentioned. Deion Branch can't do squat in the regular season and morphs into Jerry Rice in the post season.

I'm a believer in the Amendola injury risk and think that Gronk is damaged goods right now, but I'm not downgrading Brady at all.

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I've always liked Brady and have targeted in prior years, including his 50 TD-Pass season. But I'll be avoiding him like the plague this year. He has an alarming lack of proven skill position talent behind his "Big-3" of Amendola, Gronk, and Hernandez, and each of those three have a terrible injury history/risk. Nobody to stretch the field.

I know Belichek & Brady have always managed to get the most out of marginal talent, but when one or two of the Big-3 are sidelined, I just don't see where Top 5 QB stats can come from. Even Teblow could vulture a few TD's if they use him in a goal-line package. I'm seeing 4500/30 as his ceiling with considerable downside risk...

Quick ... without looking it up, who were his wide receivers when he won three super bowls?

Hint: Welker was not on the team for any of those wins.

QBs make the WRs. Not hesitating to nab Brady this year. It's June. Stop getting fancy. If Brady isn't injured then he is a complete beast. Last year NE ranked top 5 in rushing attempts and he still killed it fantasy-wise.

thats nice and all but Brady wasnt a great fantasy option when he was winning superbowls, Its when he was losing superbowls and had Moss/Welker/Gronk era that he was a dominate fantasy force.

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I've always liked Brady and have targeted in prior years, including his 50 TD-Pass season. But I'll be avoiding him like the plague this year. He has an alarming lack of proven skill position talent behind his "Big-3" of Amendola, Gronk, and Hernandez, and each of those three have a terrible injury history/risk. Nobody to stretch the field.

I know Belichek & Brady have always managed to get the most out of marginal talent, but when one or two of the Big-3 are sidelined, I just don't see where Top 5 QB stats can come from. Even Teblow could vulture a few TD's if they use him in a goal-line package. I'm seeing 4500/30 as his ceiling with considerable downside risk...

Quick ... without looking it up, who were his wide receivers when he won three super bowls?

Hint: Welker was not on the team for any of those wins.

QBs make the WRs. Not hesitating to nab Brady this year. It's June. Stop getting fancy. If Brady isn't injured then he is a complete beast. Last year NE ranked top 5 in rushing attempts and he still killed it fantasy-wise.

thats nice and all but Brady wasnt a great fantasy option when he was winning superbowls, Its when he was losing superbowls and had Moss/Welker/Gronk era that he was a dominate fantasy force.

Bingo. Having said that, I have no doubt that Brady can take these new WRs and still be an upper echelon fantasy QB in 2013, but with the deep pool of quarterbacks this year, I will let someone else pay a lot for him.

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Where to begin with this . . .

The Pats will not be taking the ball out of Brady's hands and giving it to Tim Tebow, so that's a total non-issue.

Amendola at this point is a younger and slightly faster version of Welker. He had essentially 2 totally fluke injuries that mucked up two seasons, neither of which are likely to happen again. IMO, Amendola takes over for Welker and as far as that element goes they don't miss a beat. The slot position in NE has been a gravy train for years, as even Troy Brown notched 90-100 catches a year playing with Brady and averaged over 1000 yards receiving.

Gronk and Hernandez have always been injury risks. But now they also have Ballard, who is a capable TE in his own right. Those 3 combined will produce what the Pats usually get out of the TE spot.

Woodhead is gone and will be replaced with Vereen, who is more than capable and likely just as quick. Woodhead took over for Faulk, so I see that the 3rd down/COP role as one that is almost plug and play.

The only real true question mark IMO is having someone to fill the void left by Lloyd leaving in terms of total numbers. And Lloyd may not be totally out of the picture, as they could resign him in a heartbeat. The question becomes can Edelman, Dobson, and Boyce combined add up to what Lloyd produced last year.

Overall, I suspect the Pats will run a little more this year, especially if Gronk is not available to start the year. But I would not panic on the NE offense. People said Welker was a no name and would never do anything. People said Brady's numbers would never be close to the same without Moss. People said they would never be able to get a clutch receiver out of the backfield to replace Faulk. Literally all the names other than Brady have changed over the years, and I haven't seen much drop off offensively, have you?

So are you saying that the Patriots could march anyone out there and have the success they've had through the years? Amendola is not Welker.

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I've always liked Brady and have targeted in prior years, including his 50 TD-Pass season. But I'll be avoiding him like the plague this year. He has an alarming lack of proven skill position talent behind his "Big-3" of Amendola, Gronk, and Hernandez, and each of those three have a terrible injury history/risk. Nobody to stretch the field.

I know Belichek & Brady have always managed to get the most out of marginal talent, but when one or two of the Big-3 are sidelined, I just don't see where Top 5 QB stats can come from. Even Teblow could vulture a few TD's if they use him in a goal-line package. I'm seeing 4500/30 as his ceiling with considerable downside risk...

Quick ... without looking it up, who were Brady's wide receivers when he won three super bowls?

Hint: Not Welker or Moss.

QBs make the WRs. Not hesitating to nab Brady this year. It's June. Stop getting fancy. If Brady isn't injured then he is a complete beast. Last year NE ranked top 5 in rushing attempts and he still killed it fantasy-wise. And since when is NE's offense predicated on stretching the field? They've had one true field-stretcher in the past 10 years and they didn't win the Super Bowl with him on the roster.

Quick, without looking it up, what were his finishes in fantasy football the three times he won the Super Bowl?

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I think Brady is one of those guys that elevates those around him. Welker was nothing before he got to the Patriots. Troy Brown was already mentioned. Deion Branch can't do squat in the regular season and morphs into Jerry Rice in the post season.

I'm a believer in the Amendola injury risk and think that Gronk is damaged goods right now, but I'm not downgrading Brady at all.

That's not true. Belichick is on record stating that they couldn't cover Welker when they played them and that is why they targeted him as an addition.

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Where to begin with this . . .

The Pats will not be taking the ball out of Brady's hands and giving it to Tim Tebow, so that's a total non-issue.

Amendola at this point is a younger and slightly faster version of Welker. He had essentially 2 totally fluke injuries that mucked up two seasons, neither of which are likely to happen again. IMO, Amendola takes over for Welker and as far as that element goes they don't miss a beat. The slot position in NE has been a gravy train for years, as even Troy Brown notched 90-100 catches a year playing with Brady and averaged over 1000 yards receiving.

Gronk and Hernandez have always been injury risks. But now they also have Ballard, who is a capable TE in his own right. Those 3 combined will produce what the Pats usually get out of the TE spot.

Woodhead is gone and will be replaced with Vereen, who is more than capable and likely just as quick. Woodhead took over for Faulk, so I see that the 3rd down/COP role as one that is almost plug and play.

The only real true question mark IMO is having someone to fill the void left by Lloyd leaving in terms of total numbers. And Lloyd may not be totally out of the picture, as they could resign him in a heartbeat. The question becomes can Edelman, Dobson, and Boyce combined add up to what Lloyd produced last year.

Overall, I suspect the Pats will run a little more this year, especially if Gronk is not available to start the year. But I would not panic on the NE offense. People said Welker was a no name and would never do anything. People said Brady's numbers would never be close to the same without Moss. People said they would never be able to get a clutch receiver out of the backfield to replace Faulk. Literally all the names other than Brady have changed over the years, and I haven't seen much drop off offensively, have you?

So are you saying that the Patriots could march anyone out there and have the success they've had through the years? Amendola is not Welker.

So you knew Welker was going to be an uber-stud when he came over for a bag of peanuts from the Fins? Please.

Amendola in his current state is light years better than what Welker was when he arrived.

Brady does more with less than anyone in the league... maybe ever. He's been working some with some "alternative" coaches during the off-season and supposedly is feeling better than ever about his throwing motion.

Pleased Brady dynasty owner here, and I would do backflips in my redrafts if folks thought along these lines.

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The Pats swapped out essentially an entire new receiving corps from 06 to 07, adding Moss, Welker, Stallworth, and Gaffney. Things turned out ok. (And yes, I get that the guys they added this offseason should not be confused with the players they added in 2007). Brady ranked #1 and had a season for the ages.

Moss got shipped out in 2010 and the Pats were never going to be able to survive with out him. They had no one to stretch the field. No one to draw double coverage. They offense was going to sputter and crash and burn. Enter Gronk and Hernandez . . . and Brady finished the year as the #1 QB.

And why does everyone want to compare Amendola in STL to Welker in NE? How about people compare Welker to Amendola at Texas Tech (where both played) and Amendola put up better totals as a senior than Welker did. Or how about comparing Welker in MIA to Amendola in STL? Cause Welker was a complete nobody in MIA. How while we're at it, why are people comparing Welker in NE with Brady to Amendola in STL with SAM BRADFORD throwing the ball in an anemic offense? Amendola will put up numbers in NE similar to what Welker did, especially if they throw him the ball 188 times like they did to Welker.

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I think Brady is one of those guys that elevates those around him. Welker was nothing before he got to the Patriots. Troy Brown was already mentioned. Deion Branch can't do squat in the regular season and morphs into Jerry Rice in the post season.

I'm a believer in the Amendola injury risk and think that Gronk is damaged goods right now, but I'm not downgrading Brady at all.

That's not true. Belichick is on record stating that they couldn't cover Welker when they played them and that is why they targeted him as an addition.

2005 29 receptions for 434 yards and a 15.0 YPC 0 TD's

2006 67 receptions for 687 yards and a 10.3 YPC 1 TD

Seems pretty uncovereable to me...

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Where to begin with this . . .

The Pats will not be taking the ball out of Brady's hands and giving it to Tim Tebow, so that's a total non-issue.

Amendola at this point is a younger and slightly faster version of Welker. He had essentially 2 totally fluke injuries that mucked up two seasons, neither of which are likely to happen again. IMO, Amendola takes over for Welker and as far as that element goes they don't miss a beat. The slot position in NE has been a gravy train for years, as even Troy Brown notched 90-100 catches a year playing with Brady and averaged over 1000 yards receiving.

Gronk and Hernandez have always been injury risks. But now they also have Ballard, who is a capable TE in his own right. Those 3 combined will produce what the Pats usually get out of the TE spot.

Woodhead is gone and will be replaced with Vereen, who is more than capable and likely just as quick. Woodhead took over for Faulk, so I see that the 3rd down/COP role as one that is almost plug and play.

The only real true question mark IMO is having someone to fill the void left by Lloyd leaving in terms of total numbers. And Lloyd may not be totally out of the picture, as they could resign him in a heartbeat. The question becomes can Edelman, Dobson, and Boyce combined add up to what Lloyd produced last year.

Overall, I suspect the Pats will run a little more this year, especially if Gronk is not available to start the year. But I would not panic on the NE offense. People said Welker was a no name and would never do anything. People said Brady's numbers would never be close to the same without Moss. People said they would never be able to get a clutch receiver out of the backfield to replace Faulk. Literally all the names other than Brady have changed over the years, and I haven't seen much drop off offensively, have you?

So are you saying that the Patriots could march anyone out there and have the success they've had through the years? Amendola is not Welker.

So you knew Welker was going to be an uber-stud when he came over for a bag of peanuts from the Fins? Please.

Amendola in his current state is light years better than what Welker was when he arrived.

Brady does more with less than anyone in the league... maybe ever. He's been working some with some "alternative" coaches during the off-season and supposedly is feeling better than ever about his throwing motion.

Pleased Brady dynasty owner here, and I would do backflips in my redrafts if folks thought along these lines.

No, all I am saying is the two are not the same player. Saying that Amendola is a better version of Welker is hyperbole with nothing to back it up.

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I think Brady is one of those guys that elevates those around him. Welker was nothing before he got to the Patriots. Troy Brown was already mentioned. Deion Branch can't do squat in the regular season and morphs into Jerry Rice in the post season.

I'm a believer in the Amendola injury risk and think that Gronk is damaged goods right now, but I'm not downgrading Brady at all.

That's not true. Belichick is on record stating that they couldn't cover Welker when they played them and that is why they targeted him as an addition.

2005 29 receptions for 434 yards and a 15.0 YPC 0 TD's

2006 67 receptions for 687 yards and a 10.3 YPC 1 TD

Seems pretty uncovereable to me...

I didn't say it, Hoodie said it.

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I think Brady is one of those guys that elevates those around him. Welker was nothing before he got to the Patriots. Troy Brown was already mentioned. Deion Branch can't do squat in the regular season and morphs into Jerry Rice in the post season.

I'm a believer in the Amendola injury risk and think that Gronk is damaged goods right now, but I'm not downgrading Brady at all.

That's not true. Belichick is on record stating that they couldn't cover Welker when they played them and that is why they targeted him as an addition.

This is one of the biggest urban legends ever floated which was uttered to stroke Welker upon his arrival to NE.

Here were Welker's massive games against the Pats:

0-0-0

0-0-0

2-61-0

2-20-0

9-77-0

1-(-1)-0

That's it. He had one decent game. ONE. But yet, somehow he was this folklore hero that legends were built on.

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I think Brady is one of those guys that elevates those around him. Welker was nothing before he got to the Patriots. Troy Brown was already mentioned. Deion Branch can't do squat in the regular season and morphs into Jerry Rice in the post season.

I'm a believer in the Amendola injury risk and think that Gronk is damaged goods right now, but I'm not downgrading Brady at all.

That's not true. Belichick is on record stating that they couldn't cover Welker when they played them and that is why they targeted him as an addition.

This is one of the biggest urban legends ever floated which was uttered to stroke Welker upon his arrival to NE.

Here were Welker's massive games against the Pats:

0-0-0

0-0-0

2-61-0

2-20-0

9-77-0

1-(-1)-0

That's it. He had one decent game. ONE. But yet, somehow he was this folklore hero that legends were built on.

You're right, Welker is "just a guy"

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I've always liked Brady and have targeted in prior years, including his 50 TD-Pass season. But I'll be avoiding him like the plague this year. He has an alarming lack of proven skill position talent behind his "Big-3" of Amendola, Gronk, and Hernandez, and each of those three have a terrible injury history/risk. Nobody to stretch the field.

I know Belichek & Brady have always managed to get the most out of marginal talent, but when one or two of the Big-3 are sidelined, I just don't see where Top 5 QB stats can come from. Even Teblow could vulture a few TD's if they use him in a goal-line package. I'm seeing 4500/30 as his ceiling with considerable downside risk...

Quick ... without looking it up, who were Brady's wide receivers when he won three super bowls?

Hint: Not Welker or Moss.

QBs make the WRs. Not hesitating to nab Brady this year. It's June. Stop getting fancy. If Brady isn't injured then he is a complete beast. Last year NE ranked top 5 in rushing attempts and he still killed it fantasy-wise. And since when is NE's offense predicated on stretching the field? They've had one true field-stretcher in the past 10 years and they didn't win the Super Bowl with him on the roster.

True, not Welker or Moss. But Brady was also an average fantasy QB those years, certainly not a top 5 (or maybe even top 10).

This is very interesting to me and I could see him returning to a 4000 25 TD 10 INT type season due to all the above...

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Where to begin with this . . .

The Pats will not be taking the ball out of Brady's hands and giving it to Tim Tebow, so that's a total non-issue.

Amendola at this point is a younger and slightly faster version of Welker. He had essentially 2 totally fluke injuries that mucked up two seasons, neither of which are likely to happen again. IMO, Amendola takes over for Welker and as far as that element goes they don't miss a beat. The slot position in NE has been a gravy train for years, as even Troy Brown notched 90-100 catches a year playing with Brady and averaged over 1000 yards receiving.

Gronk and Hernandez have always been injury risks. But now they also have Ballard, who is a capable TE in his own right. Those 3 combined will produce what the Pats usually get out of the TE spot.

Woodhead is gone and will be replaced with Vereen, who is more than capable and likely just as quick. Woodhead took over for Faulk, so I see that the 3rd down/COP role as one that is almost plug and play.

The only real true question mark IMO is having someone to fill the void left by Lloyd leaving in terms of total numbers. And Lloyd may not be totally out of the picture, as they could resign him in a heartbeat. The question becomes can Edelman, Dobson, and Boyce combined add up to what Lloyd produced last year.

Overall, I suspect the Pats will run a little more this year, especially if Gronk is not available to start the year. But I would not panic on the NE offense. People said Welker was a no name and would never do anything. People said Brady's numbers would never be close to the same without Moss. People said they would never be able to get a clutch receiver out of the backfield to replace Faulk. Literally all the names other than Brady have changed over the years, and I haven't seen much drop off offensively, have you?

So are you saying that the Patriots could march anyone out there and have the success they've had through the years? Amendola is not Welker.

So you knew Welker was going to be an uber-stud when he came over for a bag of peanuts from the Fins? Please.

Amendola in his current state is light years better than what Welker was when he arrived.

Brady does more with less than anyone in the league... maybe ever. He's been working some with some "alternative" coaches during the off-season and supposedly is feeling better than ever about his throwing motion.

Pleased Brady dynasty owner here, and I would do backflips in my redrafts if folks thought along these lines.

No, all I am saying is the two are not the same player. Saying that Amendola is a better version of Welker is hyperbole with nothing to back it up.

I didn't say that. Reading comprehension 101.

I said that Amendola, in his present state, is better than what Welker was when he arrived in New England. Shall I go bold that statement for you in my original post here for further reinforcement?

There's nothing Patriot-related to back it up since Amendola has yet to see a real snap with their offense, but as someone else noted, Amendola was able to put up pretty impressive stats with Sam Bradford hurling the rock. I think Brady may be a bit better than Bradford. Do you need me to look up stats for you to back that up or are you OK with me just stating that as fact?

Amendola will put up solid stats in the Pat offense if he can stay healthy. Perhaps not Welker-like stats, yet... but it sure has a chance to be that way.

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I think Brady is one of those guys that elevates those around him. Welker was nothing before he got to the Patriots. Troy Brown was already mentioned. Deion Branch can't do squat in the regular season and morphs into Jerry Rice in the post season.

I'm a believer in the Amendola injury risk and think that Gronk is damaged goods right now, but I'm not downgrading Brady at all.

That's not true. Belichick is on record stating that they couldn't cover Welker when they played them and that is why they targeted him as an addition.

This is one of the biggest urban legends ever floated which was uttered to stroke Welker upon his arrival to NE.

Here were Welker's massive games against the Pats:

0-0-0

0-0-0

2-61-0

2-20-0

9-77-0

1-(-1)-0

That's it. He had one decent game. ONE. But yet, somehow he was this folklore hero that legends were built on.

I was JUST looking at his game numbers for those two years. Year one, 4 catches for 81 yards over TWO games. And that was his better season against the Pats!

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I think Brady is one of those guys that elevates those around him. Welker was nothing before he got to the Patriots. Troy Brown was already mentioned. Deion Branch can't do squat in the regular season and morphs into Jerry Rice in the post season.

I'm a believer in the Amendola injury risk and think that Gronk is damaged goods right now, but I'm not downgrading Brady at all.

That's not true. Belichick is on record stating that they couldn't cover Welker when they played them and that is why they targeted him as an addition.

This is one of the biggest urban legends ever floated which was uttered to stroke Welker upon his arrival to NE.

Here were Welker's massive games against the Pats:

0-0-0

0-0-0

2-61-0

2-20-0

9-77-0

1-(-1)-0

That's it. He had one decent game. ONE. But yet, somehow he was this folklore hero that legends were built on.

You're right, Welker is "just a guy"

He certainly was in SD and MIA. And Hoodie (rightly or wrongly) apparently things Wes is easily replaceable.

But Troy Brown (by all accounts a JAG in his own right) was able to put up 101-1199-5 and 97-890-3 in his 30s out of the slot. We saw what Welker did playing out of the slot. And NE fans have seen what Edelman could do filling in for Welker in limited opportunities working out of the slot. The biggest thing Welker had going for him was that he could take a pounding and keep playing. That's no small accomplishment, as many people think the Pats receiving options are all injury prone. So that could prove to be a huge difference between Amendola and Welker if Amendola gets his clock cleaned and can't answer the bell for the next round.

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I've always liked Brady and have targeted in prior years, including his 50 TD-Pass season. But I'll be avoiding him like the plague this year. He has an alarming lack of proven skill position talent behind his "Big-3" of Amendola, Gronk, and Hernandez, and each of those three have a terrible injury history/risk. Nobody to stretch the field.

I know Belichek & Brady have always managed to get the most out of marginal talent, but when one or two of the Big-3 are sidelined, I just don't see where Top 5 QB stats can come from. Even Teblow could vulture a few TD's if they use him in a goal-line package. I'm seeing 4500/30 as his ceiling with considerable downside risk...

Quick ... without looking it up, who were Brady's wide receivers when he won three super bowls?

Hint: Not Welker or Moss.

QBs make the WRs. Not hesitating to nab Brady this year. It's June. Stop getting fancy. If Brady isn't injured then he is a complete beast. Last year NE ranked top 5 in rushing attempts and he still killed it fantasy-wise. And since when is NE's offense predicated on stretching the field? They've had one true field-stretcher in the past 10 years and they didn't win the Super Bowl with him on the roster.

True, not Welker or Moss. But Brady was also an average fantasy QB those years, certainly not a top 5 (or maybe even top 10).

This is very interesting to me and I could see him returning to a 4000 25 TD 10 INT type season due to all the above...

IIRC, Brady ranked as the #12 fantasy QB the rest of the way when he took over for Bledsoe in 2001. Since then, he's ranked 6, 10, 9, 2, 7, 1, 8, 1, 3, 3 (ignoring the year he got hurt).

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I can buy it. Completion percentage, yards per attempt, TD's, everything declined across the board last year and he turns 36 this year. His fantasy status was boosted last year by a career record number of attempts and an uncharacteristic 4 rushing TD's. Of course, 2011 was a huge year and would be very hard to top or come close to.

At his age, at some point the music will stop and his fantasy owners will be left without a chair. I can easily see Brady having a very good NFL Football year but disappointing his fantasy owners. With it being a big field for fantasy QB's and at their ages, I would much rather pass on Manning & Brady as the 3rd & 4th QB's off the board in redraft (that is their ADP based on what I saw on 1 website) and let someone else take on the risk of father time finally catching up to them.

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I can buy it. Completion percentage, yards per attempt, TD's, everything declined across the board last year and he turns 36 this year. His fantasy status was boosted last year by a career record number of attempts and an uncharacteristic 4 rushing TD's. Of course, 2011 was a huge year and would be very hard to top or come close to.

At his age, at some point the music will stop and his fantasy owners will be left without a chair. I can easily see Brady having a very good NFL Football year but disappointing his fantasy owners. With it being a big field for fantasy QB's and at their ages, I would much rather pass on Manning & Brady as the 3rd & 4th QB's off the board in redraft (that is their ADP based on what I saw on 1 website) and let someone else take on the risk of father time finally catching up to them.

I'm curious. Is there a magical age where a QB's arm just falls off and then they suddenly can't throw the football? Brady is a year older than Drew Brees. Yet has anyone suggested that Brees already has one foot in the grave?

There have been a number of QBs 35+ that have posted big seasons in the past 10-20 years. Brady, Manning, Young, Warner, Favre, Gannon, Moon, Elway, Cunningham, etc. Given the two hand touch rules that are essentially the norm these days, I can see many more QBs joining the pantheon of "old" QBs that can still be very productive.

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I think Brady is one of those guys that elevates those around him. Welker was nothing before he got to the Patriots. Troy Brown was already mentioned. Deion Branch can't do squat in the regular season and morphs into Jerry Rice in the post season.

I'm a believer in the Amendola injury risk and think that Gronk is damaged goods right now, but I'm not downgrading Brady at all.

That's not true. Belichick is on record stating that they couldn't cover Welker when they played them and that is why they targeted him as an addition.

This is one of the biggest urban legends ever floated which was uttered to stroke Welker upon his arrival to NE.

Here were Welker's massive games against the Pats:

0-0-0

0-0-0

2-61-0

2-20-0

9-77-0

1-(-1)-0

That's it. He had one decent game. ONE. But yet, somehow he was this folklore hero that legends were built on.

I was JUST looking at his game numbers for those two years. Year one, 4 catches for 81 yards over TWO games. And that was his better season against the Pats!

I remember Belichick saying they couldn't cover Welker as well, and that's why they gave up a 3rd rounder for him.

It's possible that they couldn't cover him, but since he had Cleo friggin' Clemons as a QB, he wasn't able to see the mismatch.

I also don't think Brady will have a big drop-off from last year. I think they have some excellent WR prospects, and if one can shine, he likely wont miss a beat.

Edited by PatsFanCT

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I've always liked Brady and have targeted in prior years, including his 50 TD-Pass season. But I'll be avoiding him like the plague this year. He has an alarming lack of proven skill position talent behind his "Big-3" of Amendola, Gronk, and Hernandez, and each of those three have a terrible injury history/risk. Nobody to stretch the field.

I know Belichek & Brady have always managed to get the most out of marginal talent, but when one or two of the Big-3 are sidelined, I just don't see where Top 5 QB stats can come from. Even Teblow could vulture a few TD's if they use him in a goal-line package. I'm seeing 4500/30 as his ceiling with considerable downside risk...

Quick ... without looking it up, who were Brady's wide receivers when he won three super bowls?

Hint: Not Welker or Moss.

Quick ... without looking it up, what were Brady's fantasy finishes when he won three Super Bowls without Welker or Moss?

Hint: no higher than QB #9 (FBG scoring).

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I think the missing point here is that there is undiscovered fantasy gold somewhere to be mined from the NE receiving corps. Assuming Brady puts up big numbers, who is the unknown beneficiary?

Edited by moleculo

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I think the missing point here is that there is undiscovered fantasy gold somewhere to be mined from the NE receiving corps. Assuming Brady puts up big numbers, who is the unknown beneficiary?

I'm not sure there is one beyond Gronk-Hernandez-Amendola. There may be isolated decent games if one of those three is out of the lineup. I don't think anyone else approaches Brandon Lloyd numbers.

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I think the missing point here is that there is undiscovered fantasy gold somewhere to be mined from the NE receiving corps. Assuming Brady puts up big numbers, who is the unknown beneficiary?

Dobson

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I think the missing point here is that there is undiscovered fantasy gold somewhere to be mined from the NE receiving corps. Assuming Brady puts up big numbers, who is the unknown beneficiary?

Dobson

Him or Thomkins is my guess. Big fast guys with good hands.

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I think the missing point here is that there is undiscovered fantasy gold somewhere to be mined from the NE receiving corps. Assuming Brady puts up big numbers, who is the unknown beneficiary?

Dobson

Him or Thomkins is my guess. Big fast guys with good hands.

Yeah, I think the Boyce thing is overblown. I like Dobson. Maybe not out of the gate but by the tail end of the season I think he may be producing quite well.

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Even if all of the bad things said here are true there are two things to remember here 1. The rules favor offenses now, it isn't the same as when Brady was just an average fantasy quarterback 2. IT IS TOM BLEEPING BRADY!!!

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Will Brady be Top 5? Hard to say in June. Let the injuries heal up. Let him work on chemistry with Ballard and Amendola. If Gronk and/or Hernandez can get back in there I think they'll be a top offense again this year.

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But I'll be avoiding him like the plague this year. He has an alarming lack of proven skill position talent behind his "Big-3" of Amendola, Gronk, and Hernandez, and each of those three have a terrible injury history/risk. Nobody to stretch the field.

They had nobody to stretch the field in 2010, 2011 or 2012. Brandon Lloyd did literally nothing but drop balls in New England. He drew very little coverage.

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I can buy it. Completion percentage, yards per attempt, TD's, everything declined across the board last year and he turns 36 this year. His fantasy status was boosted last year by a career record number of attempts and an uncharacteristic 4 rushing TD's. Of course, 2011 was a huge year and would be very hard to top or come close to.

At his age, at some point the music will stop and his fantasy owners will be left without a chair. I can easily see Brady having a very good NFL Football year but disappointing his fantasy owners. With it being a big field for fantasy QB's and at their ages, I would much rather pass on Manning & Brady as the 3rd & 4th QB's off the board in redraft (that is their ADP based on what I saw on 1 website) and let someone else take on the risk of father time finally catching up to them.

People are over thinking this. New England will be continue to go fast-snap no-huddle, and they still run the score up whenever possible. Good chance that Brady will lead the league in attempts again and thus there is a good chance he will be a fantasy stud again.

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Edelman is the stopgap here if anyone doesn't pan out. For early drafts I think he's a nice last pick and see what happens. He's not even drafted in many leagues.

Pats issues are outside. Their interior passing game is as good as it gets

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Will Brady be Top 5? Hard to say in June. Let the injuries heal up. Let him work on chemistry with Ballard and Amendola. If Gronk and/or Hernandez can get back in there I think they'll be a top offense again this year.

I'll say no. I give him a 3.6% chance to finish in the top 5. 78.4% to finish in the top 10. 18% to finish outside the top 10.

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He definitely will not be a "bust", but I agree he will have a hard time finishing top 5.

However, with all pieces they have healthy he could certainly be putting up nice numbers during the fantasy league playoffs.

So for total points leagues I don't think he will live up to his ADP, so I probably would avoid him. Leagues with playoffs though, different story for me

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Where to begin with this . . .

The Pats will not be taking the ball out of Brady's hands and giving it to Tim Tebow, so that's a total non-issue.

Amendola at this point is a younger and slightly faster version of Welker. He had essentially 2 totally fluke injuries that mucked up two seasons, neither of which are likely to happen again. IMO, Amendola takes over for Welker and as far as that element goes they don't miss a beat. The slot position in NE has been a gravy train for years, as even Troy Brown notched 90-100 catches a year playing with Brady and averaged over 1000 yards receiving.

Gronk and Hernandez have always been injury risks. But now they also have Ballard, who is a capable TE in his own right. Those 3 combined will produce what the Pats usually get out of the TE spot.

Woodhead is gone and will be replaced with Vereen, who is more than capable and likely just as quick. Woodhead took over for Faulk, so I see that the 3rd down/COP role as one that is almost plug and play.

The only real true question mark IMO is having someone to fill the void left by Lloyd leaving in terms of total numbers. And Lloyd may not be totally out of the picture, as they could resign him in a heartbeat. The question becomes can Edelman, Dobson, and Boyce combined add up to what Lloyd produced last year.

Overall, I suspect the Pats will run a little more this year, especially if Gronk is not available to start the year. But I would not panic on the NE offense. People said Welker was a no name and would never do anything. People said Brady's numbers would never be close to the same without Moss. People said they would never be able to get a clutch receiver out of the backfield to replace Faulk. Literally all the names other than Brady have changed over the years, and I haven't seen much drop off offensively, have you?

So are you saying that the Patriots could march anyone out there and have the success they've had through the years? Amendola is not Welker.

So you knew Welker was going to be an uber-stud when he came over for a bag of peanuts from the Fins? Please.

Amendola in his current state is light years better than what Welker was when he arrived.

Brady does more with less than anyone in the league... maybe ever. He's been working some with some "alternative" coaches during the off-season and supposedly is feeling better than ever about his throwing motion.

Pleased Brady dynasty owner here, and I would do backflips in my redrafts if folks thought along these lines.

A bag of peanuts? Please.

If you don't remember things, don't just blow smoke. The Patriots traded a 4th round pick for Randy Moss, but they traded a 2nd and a 7th for Welker.

Personally, I was very impressed with Welker at Texas Tech, but I'm not one to draft guys based off my eyeball test. What he did in his second season in the NFL was very good for an undrafted free agent with Joey Harrington as his QB. 100 targets for 67 receptions. Obviously that is a 67% catch ratio which is solid for any WR, but that should always be looked at in comparison to QB completion percentage as the two share a strong correlation. The Dolphins, in this case, threw for less than 58% that year, making his numbers even more impressive.

I know the 3-year WR theory is not very relevant these days, but that's because guys get thrown into the mix very quickly. For an UDFA, it takes 3 years to work your way up the ranks. 67 receptions in just a second season should've raised everyone's eyebrows, but it was a short white guy on a terrible team so it didn't. But getting traded to the Pats for a gigantic bag of peanuts should have, but no, Randy Moss was also traded for, so that was also overshadowed.

So yes, the writing was on the wall for Welker being very good in New England for anyone who had half a brain. No one could have predicted 112 receptions, but he was easily worth targeting as a value play.

Off topic for this post, but I'd like to agree that Amendola is not Welker. He's not a bad player, but he's not Welker. He'll compile stats if he gets 150 targets, but his skill set is simply not as good as Welker's. Younger and maybe faster 40 time? Sure, but there is a lot more to the position than that.

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I've always liked Brady and have targeted in prior years, including his 50 TD-Pass season. But I'll be avoiding him like the plague this year. He has an alarming lack of proven skill position talent behind his "Big-3" of Amendola, Gronk, and Hernandez, and each of those three have a terrible injury history/risk. Nobody to stretch the field.

I know Belichek & Brady have always managed to get the most out of marginal talent, but when one or two of the Big-3 are sidelined, I just don't see where Top 5 QB stats can come from. Even Teblow could vulture a few TD's if they use him in a goal-line package. I'm seeing 4500/30 as his ceiling with considerable downside risk...

Quick ... without looking it up, who were Brady's wide receivers when he won three super bowls?

Hint: Not Welker or Moss.

QBs make the WRs. Not hesitating to nab Brady this year. It's June. Stop getting fancy. If Brady isn't injured then he is a complete beast. Last year NE ranked top 5 in rushing attempts and he still killed it fantasy-wise. And since when is NE's offense predicated on stretching the field? They've had one true field-stretcher in the past 10 years and they didn't win the Super Bowl with him on the roster.

They were also top 5 in passing attempts. They ran a lot of plays last year (as they usually do). Should that number drop, Brady's numbers will drop. Also, Brady rushed for 4 TDs last year and finished QB3. He also lost two of his top targets. What is his ADP? QB3. I can't agree that he'll be a bust this year, but I think there's a very slim chance he places at or above his ADP.

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Brady will finish top 5, and I would not at all be shocked if he had 4 rushing TDs this season also.

Hes got a taste for the QB sneak, he can't stop - it will probably end his career.

Edited by Run It Up

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Its possible but big qb numbers seem to me more system based than stud talent at wr. Who are the stud groups Rodgers and Brees are throwing to this year? I think Gronk, Hernandez and Amendola compare pretty favorably to Colston, Graham and Moore or Jordy, Cobb and Finley.

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Where to begin with this . . .

The Pats will not be taking the ball out of Brady's hands and giving it to Tim Tebow, so that's a total non-issue.

Amendola at this point is a younger and slightly faster version of Welker. He had essentially 2 totally fluke injuries that mucked up two seasons, neither of which are likely to happen again. IMO, Amendola takes over for Welker and as far as that element goes they don't miss a beat. The slot position in NE has been a gravy train for years, as even Troy Brown notched 90-100 catches a year playing with Brady and averaged over 1000 yards receiving.

Gronk and Hernandez have always been injury risks. But now they also have Ballard, who is a capable TE in his own right. Those 3 combined will produce what the Pats usually get out of the TE spot.

Woodhead is gone and will be replaced with Vereen, who is more than capable and likely just as quick. Woodhead took over for Faulk, so I see that the 3rd down/COP role as one that is almost plug and play.

The only real true question mark IMO is having someone to fill the void left by Lloyd leaving in terms of total numbers. And Lloyd may not be totally out of the picture, as they could resign him in a heartbeat. The question becomes can Edelman, Dobson, and Boyce combined add up to what Lloyd produced last year.

Overall, I suspect the Pats will run a little more this year, especially if Gronk is not available to start the year. But I would not panic on the NE offense. People said Welker was a no name and would never do anything. People said Brady's numbers would never be close to the same without Moss. People said they would never be able to get a clutch receiver out of the backfield to replace Faulk. Literally all the names other than Brady have changed over the years, and I haven't seen much drop off offensively, have you?

So are you saying that the Patriots could march anyone out there and have the success they've had through the years? Amendola is not Welker.

So you knew Welker was going to be an uber-stud when he came over for a bag of peanuts from the Fins? Please.

Amendola in his current state is light years better than what Welker was when he arrived.

Brady does more with less than anyone in the league... maybe ever. He's been working some with some "alternative" coaches during the off-season and supposedly is feeling better than ever about his throwing motion.

Pleased Brady dynasty owner here, and I would do backflips in my redrafts if folks thought along these lines.

A bag of peanuts? Please.

If you don't remember things, don't just blow smoke. The Patriots traded a 4th round pick for Randy Moss, but they traded a 2nd and a 7th for Welker.

Personally, I was very impressed with Welker at Texas Tech, but I'm not one to draft guys based off my eyeball test. What he did in his second season in the NFL was very good for an undrafted free agent with Joey Harrington as his QB. 100 targets for 67 receptions. Obviously that is a 67% catch ratio which is solid for any WR, but that should always be looked at in comparison to QB completion percentage as the two share a strong correlation. The Dolphins, in this case, threw for less than 58% that year, making his numbers even more impressive.

I know the 3-year WR theory is not very relevant these days, but that's because guys get thrown into the mix very quickly. For an UDFA, it takes 3 years to work your way up the ranks. 67 receptions in just a second season should've raised everyone's eyebrows, but it was a short white guy on a terrible team so it didn't. But getting traded to the Pats for a gigantic bag of peanuts should have, but no, Randy Moss was also traded for, so that was also overshadowed.

So yes, the writing was on the wall for Welker being very good in New England for anyone who had half a brain. No one could have predicted 112 receptions, but he was easily worth targeting as a value play.

Off topic for this post, but I'd like to agree that Amendola is not Welker. He's not a bad player, but he's not Welker. He'll compile stats if he gets 150 targets, but his skill set is simply not as good as Welker's. Younger and maybe faster 40 time? Sure, but there is a lot more to the position than that.

I agree with everything you said, but his 67 catch season was actually his third season (which is still impressive given the fact that he wasn't a starter and Joey Harrington was mediocre, at best), his first NFL season was split between San Diego and Miami as mostly a special teams player.

I do think Welker is one of the more under-rated players in the league, as people are quick to call him a "system" guy.

On topic - I actually agree with the OP. I wouldn't call Brady a "bust" but do think we could see a decrease in some of the gaudy numbers he's been putting up. People seem to think Ballard can just replace Gronk due to the "system", but the player's skill set dictate the system to a large extent. Ballard is a decent player but is not even close to Gronk's skill set. Even in his breakout season, which put him on the fantasy map, he didn't even catch 40 balls - and the Giants are also known as a TE friendly system.

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Its possible but big qb numbers seem to me more system based than stud talent at wr. Who are the stud groups Rodgers and Brees are throwing to this year? I think Gronk, Hernandez and Amendola compare pretty favorably to Colston, Graham and Moore or Jordy, Cobb and Finley.

I think the premise of this thread is based on Gronk missing significant time, which is starting to seem like a strong possibility at this time. If he does start the season on the PUP it could be Week 8 or 9 before he's in the line-up.

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Hmmm... Lots of good points made here. Maybe "bust" is too strong a word, but I do firmly believe he will underperform his ADP (perhaps significantly)primarily due to the lack of WR depth/talent/experience coupled with Big 3 receiver injuries (big downside risk IMO). His age may not be a decisive factor yet, but he WILL decline sometime in the next 2-3 seasons(possibly beginning now?). And sure - Teblow sucks and could get cut, but he MAY also vulture a few TD's. So...go ahead and draft him at QB3, but hear me now and believe me later - it wouldn't be prudent.

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Its possible but big qb numbers seem to me more system based than stud talent at wr. Who are the stud groups Rodgers and Brees are throwing to this year? I think Gronk, Hernandez and Amendola compare pretty favorably to Colston, Graham and Moore or Jordy, Cobb and Finley.

I think the premise of this thread is based on Gronk missing significant time, which is starting to seem like a strong possibility at this time. If he does start the season on the PUP it could be Week 8 or 9 before he's in the line-up.

Yes - AND Amendola and Hernandez. By the way, I like Amendola's effort/intensity, but am aware that he has an embarrassing 8.8 career YPC and only 7 TDs in 196 career catches! Sure, you can say it's "the system" but it's also a guy who lacks explosiveness and disappears in the red zone...

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I can buy it. Completion percentage, yards per attempt, TD's, everything declined across the board last year and he turns 36 this year. His fantasy status was boosted last year by a career record number of attempts and an uncharacteristic 4 rushing TD's. Of course, 2011 was a huge year and would be very hard to top or come close to.

At his age, at some point the music will stop and his fantasy owners will be left without a chair. I can easily see Brady having a very good NFL Football year but disappointing his fantasy owners. With it being a big field for fantasy QB's and at their ages, I would much rather pass on Manning & Brady as the 3rd & 4th QB's off the board in redraft (that is their ADP based on what I saw on 1 website) and let someone else take on the risk of father time finally catching up to them.

I'm curious. Is there a magical age where a QB's arm just falls off and then they suddenly can't throw the football? Brady is a year older than Drew Brees. Yet has anyone suggested that Brees already has one foot in the grave?

There have been a number of QBs 35+ that have posted big seasons in the past 10-20 years. Brady, Manning, Young, Warner, Favre, Gannon, Moon, Elway, Cunningham, etc. Given the two hand touch rules that are essentially the norm these days, I can see many more QBs joining the pantheon of "old" QBs that can still be very productive.

Brees is 18 months younger and doesn't turn 35 until after the season is over, but he is someone I'd would start worrying about too (at least for dynasty purposes. For redraft, I'd be more worried about the coaching staff returning and a shift back to a more balanced offense along with improvement to a historically awful defense.) Big difference though from Brady who will be 36 when the season starts.

Last year the #12 QB put up 322 FPT (Andy Dalton.) The number of times that a QB 36 or older has achieved those kind of numbers is exactly 7 instances total. Only Rich Gannon managed it more than once although Manning has a very good shot at repeating. (Interestingly, all of these seasons have come in the last 20 years, so you can point to the increase in passing statistics there.)

Every QB is different though and Brady is obviously a 1st ballot HOF and you can even make an argument for GOAT. Therefore this is just a risk factor fantasy drafters will have to take into account. Some will give it less weight (like yourself) than others. But couple the advancing age, signs of (possibly, might have easily been just reversion to the mean) declining productivity last year, and the loss of Welker/injuries to others and I think he's too risky a proposition to be spending your 3rd or 4th round pick on this year. Especially given how many viable QB's you can draft after him that have a shot at big/solid numbers like the young guys (RG3, Cam, Ryan, Kaep, Wilson, Luck) and the steady vets (Romo, Big Ben, Eli, etc.)

I don't think he'll outright bust, but I do think it's probable he's going to be a disappointment (at least fantasy-wise) this year.

Edit: And I say this as someone who drafted Brady in the 1st round of one of my redraft leagues last year.

Edited by Buckna

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Brady is not just any other QB, he is a Super Stud, this thread is for the haters to speculate.

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