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QB Tom Brady, TB (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ComfortablyNumb
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
He would be, but he is also the only way to the other players to play together. Both Gronk and AB claim they will only play with TB12 (although at this point I think AB would play for any team dumb enough to want him). I think Gronk would come back if he didn't have to deal with the evil genius. It's unlikely NE would give permission for him to play elsewhere, but he could force their hand by waiting for them to have no cap room and filing for reinstatement. NE would have to get under the cap to roster him, if not, they would have to release him.
CalBear
Footballguy
You really are reaching on this one. The last time Brady led an offense that scored even 500 points was 2012. He still had Wes Welker for heaven's sake (as well as Edelman and Gronk). The best offense he's ever led, which included Randy Moss, only scored 589.
Brady is not capable at this point of playing behind anything but an elite o-line. He's not better than Phillip Rivers, let alone Daniel Jones who had three games with 4+ TD in the second half of the season. Brady hasn't done that in a season since 2014.
He's done.
Andrew74
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Dallas. I’d be happier paying him like 2/40 than a huge Dak contract. Good run game, draft a TE in the first round, go after like Perriman & see if a discounted AJ Green is available. 
Anarchy99
Footballguy
$20M a year won’t be enough. If he leaves NE, it will be a much bigger number.Dallas. I’d be happier paying him like 2/40 than a huge Dak contract. Good run game, draft a TE in the first round, go after like Perriman & see if a discounted AJ Green is available.
Just Win Baby
Footballguy
Are you saying you believe some team will pay him a much bigger number than $20M? I don't think any team other than possibly NE will do that.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
It will take more than $20M a year for any team to get Brady. IMO, Brady could ultimately take less to stay in NE, but from all the talk I have heard, Brady was potentially looking for fair market value for a top QB. Another team signing Brady could be a huge windfall financially to that team. He got paid $23 million this year. I don’t see him getting less next year.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
why cant he be franchised? some contract thing? or the pats don't have the cap room?
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Brady copied the contract Brees has. Sign for two years with the second year being a voidable bogus year to allow the team to space out the cap hit. It specifies he can’t be franchised. The team has to either draw up a new contract or let him become a free agent and take on the left over cap hit from last year.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Brady is no longer a top QB. I'm not knocking the guy, even as a SF fan I'll begrudgingly admit he is the GOAT, but nonetheless, dude will be 43 when he takes his next snap. For the first time in his career, it was highly visible this season that his arm strength was fading and accuracy was off. I can't imagine anyone committing more than 2 seasons to the guy, knowing that second season could be a complete dud, any GM paying over $20mm per season is insane.
For Brady, it can't be about the money... He has already earned $235mm (not including who knows how much from other ventures) and his wife makes more than him. He is a competitor, and if he feels disrespected by BB or the Pats, my gut says it is principle and he would happily take a 2/40 deal in a situation he thinks he can win one more SB.
For Brady, it can't be about the money... He has already earned $235mm (not including who knows how much from other ventures) and his wife makes more than him. He is a competitor, and if he feels disrespected by BB or the Pats, my gut says it is principle and he would happily take a 2/40 deal in a situation he thinks he can win one more SB.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
NE / BB / TB really only care about wins and losses. So some of the newer age metric formulas won't like how Brady performed this season. Yes, he was not the Brady of old, but the Patriots receivers had a ton of drops (not sure that gets factored into the metrics). Similarly, Brady would rather throw the ball away than turn it over or take a sack. That also drove his numbers down. Whether he needed to or should have thrown the ball away is a different question. And as discussed multiple times, his weapons and the health of the offense (as well as Brady) was an ongoing concern this season.
Yes, Brady's totals trended the wrong way this year, but with better health, a better OL, and more weapons, I would suggest his numbers would have been a lot better (and would be next year). Having an elbow injury for a good part of the year would contribute to apparent arm strength and accuracy issues.
CalBear
Footballguy
The idea that Brady at 44 would be better than Brady at 43 is...unsupported by logic.
Brady's passer rating the past four years:
- 112.2
- 102.8
- 97.7
- 88.0
Anarchy99
Footballguy
JetMaxx
Footballguy
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Exactly. He is not going to turn 43 and suddenly get healthier; it doesn't work that way. His alleged elbow and foot injuries he had this past season are a symptom of getting older. Little nagging injuries creep up more and take longer to heal. He staved off Father Time longer than anyone who has ever played the QB position, but it's clear that he is now losing the battle.
CalBear
Footballguy
It's not impossible. What is the likelihood that in 2020, Brady throws over 300 passes and has a rating better than 88.0?
I'd say, less than 5%. Maybe less than 2%.
I’d wager Brady is the first so long as he’s provided with another legitimate WR and TE, remains on the Patriots, and has an offensive line that suffers fewer injuries. The odds of all of the above happening are unlikely but not impossible. He’s still really good and his supporting cast devolved into a pitiful mess.
CalBear
Footballguy
I don't see how he's still really good. He has his mental game but he can't execute anymore.
By the way, Brady had six games of Josh Gordon and one of Antonio Brown. Then NE went out and got Sanu who was better on Atlanta than he was on the Pats. He also still had one of the best receiving backs in the NFL.
His weapons could have been better but the problems in the passing game start with inaccurate passes.
I can’t think of many teams if any that had worse offensive weapons. Maybe Philly bc of all the injuries.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I would't underestimate Brady. He may never look like he did in years past, but with BB as coach and if they fix some holes on the offense,, ........ I wouldn't underestimate the Patriots at all.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
Brady’s receivers had the second most drops and Brady himself had the most throwaways in the league when under heavy duress from his patch work OL. If his receivers caught half the drops and he didn’t have to throw the ball into the ground as often, his QB rating would have been at least in the mid 90’s. Both of those had more to do with his metric scores than Brady himself.
Yes, Brady in 2019 was not the same guy. But he can still be league average and not in the bottom tier in terms of starting QB’s. IMO, under better circumstances next year, Brady could bounce back some compared to this season.
Put another way, any other QB playing in NE this year would also have had poor passing numbers. The injuries and lack of playmakers would have hurt anyone else as well.
rzrback77
Footballguy
@Anarchy99 I have not read all this, but what do you see as the percentage chance that Brady stays with the Patriots. And if he does, isn't just adding WRs and/or a quality TE a tough assignment for those players in their first year in the Patriot's system. I have heard that it is complex and many struggle with understanding enough to just play. Can you give me insight on that and whether you think it is likely that Brady again signs in New England?
Thanks, I value your opinion so I will hang up and listen.
Thanks, I value your opinion so I will hang up and listen.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
L.A. might put a fresh charge in him.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
There's a lot to review in all of this. Part of the reason the NE offense is hard to master is TB sees things that the defense is doing and he needs his receivers to see the same thing. Receivers have a series of hot reads they have to make both pre-snap and in-play as far as adjustments go. Sometimes they have to process and break down a play step by step to end up where Brady expects them. And depending upon what Brady sees and expects, the ball will be delivered accordingly. For example, if a receiver runs a route and the CB is behind him with help on the backside, Brady will throw the ball down and away. If the help is in front of the play, Brady will throw the ball high and away. Part of the issue this year was receivers took too long to make their cuts and/or did not expect the ball thrown where Brady was throwing it. Similarly, there were a few times when Brady looked like he just over threw a pass, when on film breakdown the receiver did not run deep enough, cut too soon, or otherwise was not in the right spot. But in real time, it looked like Brady was way off.
Based on all that, rookies in the NE system really stand no chance. They have too much to absorb and TB won't work with them or put in extra time to bring them along. At this stage, he wants guys that can be plug and play. Over the years, some new (first year) guys have fit in perfectly without a hitch (Welker and Moss in the huge win category, guys like Lloyd / Stallworth / LaFell in the pretty good category). Antonio Brown looked like he had promise as a Patriot. Others have crashed and burned (Galloway / Ocho Cinco). Others had mixed results (Gordon). Sanu didn't really mesh with things as a mid season acquisition (and had an ankle injury that didn't help).
In recent years, Brady essentially made football a lower priority than in the past. He only attended mandatory / team required practices. He made it clear that family time was of great importance, so he skipped voluntary workouts and OTA's and went on around the world trips. He essentially only showed up for the bare minimum, even with high turnover for skilled position players on offense. This year, he had load management days during practice (most first practices of the week off) and also had multiple practices where he was too banged up to really practice. Combining all of that (and a lack of interest in working with new guys and rookies), and the quality of play for the offense dropped and was evident on the field.
That's what I find odd about Brady potentially wanting to play somewhere else. He wants everything his way and at least in recent years wanted to show up as little as possible. He's worked with the same HC and OC for years now, so that made the system easy for him. Now put Brady on another team with a new coaching staff, a new system, and all new players. That is the exact situation Brady has AVOIDED and has verbalized not enjoying.
Other issues include his relationship with BB. Lots has been speculated, but to summarize, it sounds like Brady has always felt unappreciated and he has asked for a bigger voice in how things work. Another consideration is Brady's wife, who has indicated she needs to be in or around NYC for her business interests in the fashion industry. If Brady picked up and moved somewhere else, how does that fit with the family and fashion industry plan? They just bought a house in Connecticut that is an easy commute to NYC . . . would they look to buy another mansion somewhere else (not like they can't afford it).
I have posted several times that IMO, NE is better off letting Brady walk and taking the money they would have had to pay him to upgrade the offense. Get a WR1 (AJ Green?) and a real TE (Hunter Henry?) . . . maybe a couple of ok OL men for depth . . . keep the defense intact . . . and they could be just as good. Stidham got positive reviews, and his cheap contract could afford them the chance to upgrade at their weak spots. Paying Brady would not give them any cap room to do that. If they move on from Brady, they might bring in a veteran as someone to potentially start or be a mentor to Stidham. Someone like Alex Smith comes to mind (if he can still play). I believe Washington can get out from under his contract and release him by 3/17 and not take a bath in doing so.
The way it sounds is that BB will say Brady is now worth X dollars. Brady will say he wants Z amount of dollars. Kraft will try to offer Brady Y dollars to stay. I can't imagine Brady cares that much about the money as he doesn't need it. I think Brady will not be re-signed by NE at the start of free agency and he will see who really wants him. At this stage, I highly doubt Brady wants to get into a team rebuild, so he may find there are fewer suitors than he would hope for (and they may not want to give him the contract he wants).
Initially, I felt there really wasn't much chance Brady left. But that was mid season when the team looked great. Then the second half of the season rolled around and things went south quickly. Since then, I thought one option would be McDaniels would become a head coach somewhere and then Brady would go with him. I have heard lots of talk of Brady to the Chargers . . . perhaps with others in tow (McDaniels? Gronk? Antonio? Other NE free agents?). Gronk would have to be traded to the Chargers for that one to work out.
So to answer your question, it's too soon to tell what Brady will do and the percentages of his return to NE could vary from week to week. The Vegas odds of him returning to the Patriots the other day were posted at 1 to 2. Oddly enough, I don't think that Brady at this stage is a difference maker to put any team over the top . . . and that includes NE. The only way I think he could make a team better is playing for a team that has a number of playmakers on offense that was getting below average QB play.
We can debate what teams fit that description. Maybe Dallas? Chicago? I have heard a lot of hot takes involving other teams . . . MIA, IND, TEN, the Raiders. I don't think anyone has more than a guess at this point. I am not sure even Brady knows what he is going to do. He tweeted today that he's not done, so one has to conclude that he won't be retiring.
I think NE will offer him a contract and Brady will have to decide if he wants to play for less (again) and if he wants to deal with the same culture and weapons to work with. (He will likely have to re-sign before the team could make many changes to the roster . . . so the best he might get is a promise of new people to throw to.) When I get a better sense of how things are shaping up, I might be better suited to give you an actual percentage of how likely Brady will still be on the Patriots.
rzrback77
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I think the level of how poor his weapons were is being grossly exaggerated because his fans do not want to admit that the end is coming. That's not a knock on Brady. There's a reason players retire and he beat Father Time longer than most. Edelman and White are still two of the best at what they do. He had Gordon for 6 games, they traded for Sanu who was solid with the Falcons and did nothing with the Pats, they had a first round rookie and a solid veteran in Phillip Dorsett....
Now that offense is far from stacked but it's not complete trash either.
As to how many teams had worse weapons - I think it's debateable that the following teams were at least on equal footing:
Philadelphia
NY Jets
NY Giants (with Engram and Sheppard missing a lot of time and Tate suspended 4 games)
Green Bay (especially with Adams missing so many games)
Washington
Steelers (with JuJu missing so many games but even with him)
Bengals (AJG missed all season)
Broncos
Perhaps that's even an argument in Brady's favor though as only two of those teams made the playoffs with below average offensive weapons. Anyone that watched Brady play and says none of the drop-off is on him is just not being very realistic though. I'm not counting him out and heck maybe next year he comes out with a vengeance and tears the league up, but he certainly was noticeably "older" this season and his arm is close to shot.
I think you are overstating his decline. He's not elite any longer, but he's still really good. To your point, he has missed more throws this year and physically is not where he once was but I don't see the decline as precipitous. Josh Gordon was a shell of what he once was. He was not good at all. Sadly, it looks as if the substance abuse, aside from destroying his life, turned him into an afterthought, not just on the Patriots, but the Seahawks, too. He was a non-factor in both places. Antonio Brown played one game in New England. The sample size is too small to meaningfully factor into the discussion regarding Brady's 2019 performance. Sanu was abysmal, both physically and mentally. He created exactly zero separation and struggled to conceptualize his role in the offense.
Further, he went from Gronk (who was certainly beyond his prime) but nonetheless exponentially better than Ben Watson . Edelman fell apart physically by the end of the year, Harry needs seasoning, Dorsett is, well, Dorsett. In totality, this group, coupled with Shaq Mason's injury that cost him several games, to me all factor in more heavily than Brady's (relatively small) decline.
If the Patriots rebuild the supporting cast, I'd wager Brady's 2020 performance exceeds his 2019 performance.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Similarly, I think you are over-inflating how good Brady's weapons were.
Edelman: did great the first half of the season, suffered multiple injuries, will almost certainly need shoulder surgery and was REALLY banged up.
Sanu: joined one of the most complex offenses in the league, got hurt after one game (high ankle sprain) and had very little chance to gel without training camp / much practice.
Harry: rookies don't do much in NE . . . especially ones that go on IR and had very little practice with Brady.
Gordon: other than his one banner season in CLE, what has he really done? How's he do in SEA?
Dorsett: is pretty fast but is not a precision route runner. He hasn't been a great fit in NE and generally only does well on play action (and NE couldn't run the ball most of the year).
Meyers: Had a lot of drops, was often in the wrong spot, and was not very reliable.
Brown: looked good in his one start but all his off field stuff prevented him from making an impact on the field.
Watson: if not for Brady, he would be considered older than dirt.
LaCosse: was one of the lowest graded TE's across the board this season.
Michel: took a step back from last year (for a variety of reasons) but did not emerge as a great receiving option.
Burkhead: I thought NE should have used him more as a receiver . . . but they didn't.
White: Was the only true viable weapon that was healthy the whole year. But when everyone else isn't that productive, it limits how much they could go to White (as teams knew what was coming).
Just out of curiosity, do you expect all rookies and mid-season pick ups and acquisitions to be impact players right out of the gate? It sure sounds like it.
I am not saying Brady played well, but a lot of the situation was not of his doing. He had a patch work OL most of the season. We all know he isn't mobile and won't extend plays with his feet. Many plays his only option was to the throw the ball away. That makes his stats look bad. I'm not sure that really enters into the discussion as an example of why Brady is done or not.
As I already posted, in a better situation, I think Brady would have performed better. On the flip side, given the same set of circumstances that Brady went through (foot and elbow injuries, inexperienced receiving options (in the NE system), patchwork OL, very little time to throw, receivers not getting open, etc.) who else would have put up top tier numbers playing in place of Brady this year?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
hes done yuds....give it up....pats need to move on as well
Anarchy99
Footballguy
If you read any of my other posts, I said NE is best served to move on and invest the money he would get into upgrading the rest of the offense. Brady is average at this stage (and should not be viewed as a difference maker for any team moving forward). It would be bad business to float money out to a guy that people should know is near the end and on the decline.
That being said, the NE offense was DOA this year and it wasn't all on Brady. Put another way, whomever the NE QB is, with the same personnel and health issues to other players, the offense will again struggle next year. Brady may not have been the whole problem, but he certainly should not be viewed as a solution.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
CalBear
Footballguy
Brady had those throwaways because he's used to playing behind a dominant offensive line, and now is immobile and afraid of taking a hit.
There are plenty of other QBs who would have had fewer throwaways and more success in NE than Brady did this year. Many of them are still alive in the playoffs without substantially better offensive support. Only three of the teams remaining have a receiver better than Edelman, for example (Hopkins, AJ Brown, Tyreek Hill), and only one has a receiving RB as good as White (Cook). And all of them have QBs with more mobility than Brady.
Football Outsiders ranked New England's offensive line 5th in pass protection; only Kansas City had better protection among the remaining 8 teams. Seattle is 24th.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
I haven't formed a final answer, but I do think Brady has a positive VOS (Value Over Stidham). I also think Stidham has a positive VOF (Value Over Field), where Field is defined as who could be brought in via draft or free agency. I'd start either in NE's system over Rivers or Brees or Newton. Bridgewater....now that's an interesting proposition.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Stidham has a $750K cap hit next year. Brady on any of the other 31 teams carries a $13.5M cap hit for NE next year. That makes keeping Brady around even tougher. They can’t keep kicking his salary cap charge into future seasons.
I don’t know enough about the salary cap rules to know if they can split Brady’s cap hit across two seasons. IMO, Stidham and updated weapons would probably have a better impact on the team than Brady coming back with band aid upgrades on offense. I don’t see the Pats having cap room to make big splashes on offense with Brady back. Without Brady, they are projected to have $42M in cap space next year.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
In the right situation, I think he could be an excellent game manager for another year... If you're looking for 350/3, those years are behind him. Guy is going to be 43, he won't be able to make it through an entire season unscathed, his arm strength and accuracy have all trended in the wrong direction.
Like most things, those who argue for and against are both at extremes. He didn't have the worst offense ever assembled, but on the flip side, it wasn't loaded with talent either. Josh Gordon didn't make Seattle a passing juggernaut (I haven't looked, but I actually would guess their passing stats were down after his arrival), Dorsett is not a solid veteran (read that upthread
), Edelman/White are solid, and those were his best options. Sanu was the number 3 WR on a pretty bad ATL team, let's not make it out like they brought in Jerry Rice in that guy.
In the right situation, I think he can still play the position better than any QB not named Wilson, Rodgers, Mahomes, Jackson, & Brees, but that list will most likely double in 2020, double again in 2021 when I expect he will finally be out of the league.
The biggest positive we can all take away from this is the NE dynasty we've been stuck with for almost two decades is just about over. Now those obnoxious front-running Boston fans can fade into the fog. I can't wait to see a half empty Gillette Stadium as the 4-7 Jets head in for a dominating MNF performance in about 2 or 3 years.
If you want to talk about a guy who is toast, start with Phillip Rivers.
Like most things, those who argue for and against are both at extremes. He didn't have the worst offense ever assembled, but on the flip side, it wasn't loaded with talent either. Josh Gordon didn't make Seattle a passing juggernaut (I haven't looked, but I actually would guess their passing stats were down after his arrival), Dorsett is not a solid veteran (read that upthread
), Edelman/White are solid, and those were his best options. Sanu was the number 3 WR on a pretty bad ATL team, let's not make it out like they brought in Jerry Rice in that guy. In the right situation, I think he can still play the position better than any QB not named Wilson, Rodgers, Mahomes, Jackson, & Brees, but that list will most likely double in 2020, double again in 2021 when I expect he will finally be out of the league.
The biggest positive we can all take away from this is the NE dynasty we've been stuck with for almost two decades is just about over. Now those obnoxious front-running Boston fans can fade into the fog. I can't wait to see a half empty Gillette Stadium as the 4-7 Jets head in for a dominating MNF performance in about 2 or 3 years.
If you want to talk about a guy who is toast, start with Phillip Rivers.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I’ve asked this in a couple of places. What exactly does the “end of the dynasty” mean or translate to? Assuming Brady is gone, NE adds a couple of pieces, rolls with Stidham, and keeps their defense intact. BB is still the head coach. What record do people think the Pats will have in 2020? (They play the AFC West and NFC West next year in addition to BAL and HOU.)
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Year 2 Sanu and healthy Edelman plus getting Devlin back plus letting Watson retire and bringing 2 decent TEs (proper backfilling on the Gronk / Allen departures). Sprinkle in an AJ Green or Amari Cooper (does Emmanuel Sanders hate BB or what?). To me thats enough to get the 7th ring for TB.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
They've had the greatest QB of all-time in place for the last 20 years. Brady didn't make BB and vice versa, but the relationship is reciprocal. Brady isn't a plug and play guy. The air of invincibility around them will be gone too.
I appreciate your optimism, but I'm wholeheartedly rooting to never see another NE SB in my lifetime.
Oh, and FYI, the NFCW is the best division in football.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
I since found the answer to the salary cap question I posed earlier. NE has until 3/17 to sign Brady to a new multi-year deal to be able to space out the cap hit across two seasons. As of 3/18, NE will be forced to immediately take on a $13.5 million salary cap hit from his expiring contract EVEN IF they end up re-signing him later in the preseason. That will make the negotiating window for NE pretty tight timeline wise. And they will be at a disadvantage compared to other teams that are not on the hook for a pre-existing $13.5 million in a cap hit.
How would you compare this years weapons (and overall offensive situation) vs. 2006? Reason I ask this question is, this is the last year I can truly remember where everyone was up in arms about Brady's weapons. For example, in 2006, Brady had:
* WR: Troy Brown, Reche Caldwell, J. Gaffney, D. Gabriel
* TE: B. Watson, D. Graham
* RB: C. Dillon, K. Faulk
Brady's stats that year: 319-516 (61.8%)-3529-24-12
To me, the 2006 corp is equally as bad.
If you recall, Bill finally gave him weapons in 2007...and he went on to throw 50 TDs.
Give him a legit TE and a downfield threat and I think he can still get it done.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
While all that may be true, it's the last line that becomes the issue. NE has $42 million in cap space with Brady unsigned. Kyle Van Noy, Devin McCourty, Jamie Collins, and Joe Thuney are also all notable free agents. Where do they get the $$$ and cap space to keep those guys and bring in a legit WR1 and TE1.
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