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Official Tom Brady - bust alert (in 2013)

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I since found the answer to the salary cap question I posed earlier. NE has until 3/17 to sign Brady to a new multi-year deal to be able to space out the cap hit across two seasons. As of 3/18, NE will be forced to immediately take on a $13.5 million salary cap hit from his expiring contract EVEN IF they end up re-signing him later in the preseason. That will make the negotiating window for NE pretty tight timeline wise. And they will be at a disadvantage compared to other teams that are not on the hook for a pre-existing $13.5 million in a cap hit.

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3 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

Similarly, I think you are over-inflating how good Brady's weapons were.

Edelman: did great the first half of the season, suffered multiple injuries, will almost certainly need shoulder surgery and was REALLY banged up.
Sanu: joined one of the most complex offenses in the league, got hurt after one game (high ankle sprain) and had very little chance to gel without training camp / much practice.
Harry: rookies don't do much in NE . . . especially ones that go on IR and had very little practice with Brady.
Gordon: other than his one banner season in CLE, what has he really done? How's he do in SEA?
Dorsett: is pretty fast but is not a precision route runner. He hasn't been a great fit in NE and generally only does well on play action (and NE couldn't run the ball most of the year).
Meyers: Had a lot of drops, was often in the wrong spot, and was not very reliable.
Brown: looked good in his one start but all his off field stuff prevented him from making an impact on the field.
Watson: if not for Brady, he would be considered older than dirt.
LaCosse: was one of the lowest graded TE's across the board this season.
Michel: took a step back from last year (for a variety of reasons) but did not emerge as a great receiving option.
Burkhead: I thought NE should have used him more as a receiver . . . but they didn't.
White: Was the only true viable weapon that was healthy the whole year. But when everyone else isn't that productive, it limits how much they could go to White (as teams knew what was coming).

Just out of curiosity, do you expect all rookies and mid-season pick ups and acquisitions to be impact players right out of the gate? It sure sounds like it. 

I am not saying Brady played well, but a lot of the situation was not of his doing. He had a patch work OL most of the season. We all know he isn't mobile and won't extend plays with his feet. Many plays his only option was to the throw the ball away. That makes his stats look bad. I'm not sure that really enters into the discussion as an example of why Brady is done or not.

As I already posted, in a better situation, I think Brady would have performed better. On the flip side, given the same set of circumstances that Brady went through (foot and elbow injuries, inexperienced receiving options (in the NE system), patchwork OL, very little time to throw, receivers not getting open, etc.) who else would have put up top tier numbers playing in place of Brady this year?

How would you compare this years weapons (and overall offensive situation) vs. 2006? Reason I ask this question is, this is the last year I can truly remember where everyone was up in arms about Brady's weapons. For example, in 2006, Brady had:

* WR: Troy Brown, Reche Caldwell, J. Gaffney, D. Gabriel

* TE: B. Watson, D. Graham

* RB: C. Dillon, K. Faulk

Brady's stats that year: 319-516 (61.8%)-3529-24-12

To me, the 2006 corp is equally as bad.

If you recall, Bill finally gave him weapons in 2007...and he went on to throw 50 TDs. 

Give him a legit TE and a downfield threat and I think he can still get it done.

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, kyoun1e said:

How would you compare this years weapons (and overall offensive situation) vs. 2006? Reason I ask this question is, this is the last year I can truly remember where everyone was up in arms about Brady's weapons. For example, in 2006, Brady had:

* WR: Troy Brown, Reche Caldwell, J. Gaffney, D. Gabriel

* TE: B. Watson, D. Graham

* RB: C. Dillon, K. Faulk

Brady's stats that year: 319-516 (61.8%)-3529-24-12

To me, the 2006 corp is equally as bad.

If you recall, Bill finally gave him weapons in 2007...and he went on to throw 50 TDs. 

Give him a legit TE and a downfield threat and I think he can still get it done.

While all that may be true, it's the last line that becomes the issue. NE has $42 million in cap space with Brady unsigned. Kyle Van Noy, Devin McCourty, Jamie Collins, and Joe Thuney are also all notable free agents. Where do they get the $$$ and cap space to keep those guys and bring in a legit WR1 and TE1.

Edited by Anarchy99
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3 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

While all that may be true, it's the last line that becomes the issue. NE has $42 million in cap space with Brady unsigned. Kyle Van Noy, Devin McCourtey, Jamie Collins, and Joe Thuney are also all notable free agents. Where do they get the $$$ and cap space to keep those guys and bring in a legit WR1 and TE1.

This is why NE might be better off just letting him go.  All that money can be committed to a true rebuild.

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2 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

I since found the answer to the salary cap question I posed earlier. NE has until 3/17 to sign Brady to a new multi-year deal to be able to space out the cap hit across two seasons. As of 3/18, NE will be forced to immediately take on a $13.5 million salary cap hit from his expiring contract EVEN IF they end up re-signing him later in the preseason. That will make the negotiating window for NE pretty tight timeline wise. And they will be at a disadvantage compared to other teams that are not on the hook for a pre-existing $13.5 million in a cap hit.

Is this the same situation for Brees in New Orleans? Except the immediate cap hit is much larger?

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6 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

I have heard lots of talk of Brady to the Chargers . . . perhaps with others in tow (McDaniels? Gronk? Antonio? Other NE free agents?). Gronk would have to be traded to the Chargers for that one to work out.

I have heard this a lot, too, and IMO it is a non-starter:

  1. Brady is presumably smart enough not to finish his career going from a franchise with ownership, front office, and coaching among the best in the NFL to one where all of those things are among the worst.
  2. Brady is presumably smart enough not to go to the team that had PFF's #31 ranked pass blocking in 2019. Not with his style of play and at his age. @Anarchy99 keeps referencing Brady's "patchwork OL," which he says contributed to Brady's decline... but PFF graded New England's pass blocking as #11 in the league this season. Try putting him in the #31 pass blocking offense... good luck with that.
  3. The Chargers are not going to replace Anthony Lynn, so Brady + Daniels is not a possibility, unless you think Daniels is going to work as OC under Lynn, which I don't see happening. Plus, the Chargers have already endorsed the return of OC Steichen, who took over at midseason when Whisenhunt was fired. Similar story for Antonio Brown (not going to pay him while having both Allen and Mike Williams under contract) and Gronk (will prefer to re-sign Henry than to bring Gronk out of retirement).
  4. At this point, Rivers is better than Brady for 2020, so it wouldn't be a QB upgrade for the Chargers. If the team is not going to move on to their QB of the future with the #6 pick, I see them keeping Rivers. Actually, that is what I think is the most likely scenario for the Chargers.

 

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2 minutes ago, Stephen Holloway said:

Is this the same situation for Brees in New Orleans? Except the immediate cap hit is much larger?

Yes, except the cap hit would be $21.3M. If we are to believe Spotrac's salary calculations, Brees is worth $37.1M and Brady $34.1M per year. They don't really explain how they get to their numbers . . . and I don't know if that is based solely on past performance and if there is any consideration for future results.

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

I have heard this a lot, too, and IMO it is a non-starter:

  1. Brady is presumably smart enough not to finish his career going from a franchise with ownership, front office, and coaching among the best in the NFL to one where all of those things are among the worst.
  2. Brady is presumably smart enough not to go to the team that had PFF's #31 ranked pass blocking in 2019. Not with his style of play and at his age. @Anarchy99 keeps referencing Brady's "patchwork OL," which he says contributed to Brady's decline... but PFF graded New England's pass blocking as #11 in the league this season. Try putting him in the #31 pass blocking offense... good luck with that.
  3. The Chargers are not going to replace Anthony Lynn, so Brady + Daniels is not a possibility, unless you think Daniels is going to work as OC under Lynn, which I don't see happening. Plus, the Chargers have already endorsed the return of OC Steichen, who took over at midseason when Whisenhunt was fired. Similar story for Antonio Brown (not going to pay him while having both Allen and Mike Williams under contract) and Gronk (will prefer to re-sign Henry than to bring Gronk out of retirement).
  4. At this point, Rivers is better than Brady for 2020, so it wouldn't be a QB upgrade for the Chargers. If the team is not going to move on to their QB of the future with the #6 pick, I see them keeping Rivers. Actually, that is what I think is the most likely scenario for the Chargers.

The other non on-field factor to the Chargers byline is that Brady would sell PSL's and put fannies in the seats. The Chargers had a goal of selling $400M in seat licenses at this stage and they could only muster $50M to date. It has been speculated that adding Brady would cause an influx in interest and would get them over that $350M threshold in additional license revenue. That would be the business side in the Chargers wanting Brady. I agree from an on-field football perspective it would not make sense for Brady to choose the Chargers.

I think what happens with Brady will be determined by how many teams would be interested in him and what type of money he could command. If teams shy away from an ancient QB and don't offer him much, that would make his return to NE more likely. Given that the Pats rolled over a decent chunk of Brady's contract into a 2020 salary cap hit, Brady may have to end up playing for less than he did in 2019 if he wants to stay in NE.

Edited by Anarchy99
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Anarchy99 said:

The other non on-field factor to the Chargers byline is that Brady would sell PSL's and put fannies in the seats. The Chargers had a goal of selling $400M in seat licenses at this stage and they could only muster $50M to date. It has been speculated that adding Brady would cause an influx in interest and would get them over that $350M threshold in additional license revenue. That would be the business side in the Chargers wanting Brady. I agree from an on-field football perspective it would not make sense for Brady to choose the Chargers.

I think what happens with Brady will be determined by how many teams would be interested in him and what type of money he could command. If teams shy away from an ancient QB and don't offer him much, that would make his return to NE more likely. Given that the Pats rolled over a decent chunk of Brady's contract into a 2020 salary cap hit, Brady may have to end up playing for less than he did in 2019 if he wants to stay in NE.

Which teams are in play, other than the Chargers?

Browns?  Dolphins?

 

Edited by SeniorVBDStudent

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10 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

I’ve asked this in a couple of places. What exactly does the “end of the dynasty” mean or translate to? Assuming Brady is gone, NE adds a couple of pieces, rolls with Stidham, and keeps their defense intact. BB is still the head coach. What record do people think the Pats will have in 2020? (They play the AFC West and NFC West next year in addition to BAL and HOU.)

I'm not so sure BB will want to stick around for very many more seasons to battle through the likely upcoming mediocre/rebuilding years for NE.

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1 hour ago, NotSmart said:

I'm not so sure BB will want to stick around for very many more seasons to battle through the likely upcoming mediocre/rebuilding years for NE.

I get to listen to BB all the time in interviews (not press conferences), where he is much more open and outgoing. He’s mentioned several times that he enjoys coaching more now than ever, and he doesn’t see himself stopping any time soon. While no one really knows how long his contract runs for, it does not appear that he can up and leave to coach another team. 

While the team will have to undergo some personnel and coaching changes, I am not sure the team will go through many (any?) mediocre years. BB is still in a class of his own at a coach and they manage the salary cap better than any other team. I don’t think either of those change without Brady being around. 

Which is why I am curious what people envision happening to NE. Missing the playoffs? Multiple seasons with 4-6 wins?

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5 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

I get to listen to BB all the time in interviews (not press conferences), where he is much more open and outgoing. He’s mentioned several times that he enjoys coaching more now than ever, and he doesn’t see himself stopping any time soon. While no one really knows how long his contract runs for, it does not appear that he can up and leave to coach another team. 

While the team will have to undergo some personnel and coaching changes, I am not sure the team will go through many (any?) mediocre years. BB is still in a class of his own at a coach and they manage the salary cap better than any other team. I don’t think either of those change without Brady being around. 

Which is why I am curious what people envision happening to NE. Missing the playoffs? Multiple seasons with 4-6 wins?

NE isn't above having to rebuild some, but given they have BB I like their chances of maintaining some relevance, but it isn't a guarantee.  I'm not sure the Patriots fan base can stomach rebuilding years however.  20+ years of dominance can make a fan base feel entitled.

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6 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

I get to listen to BB all the time in interviews (not press conferences), where he is much more open and outgoing. He’s mentioned several times that he enjoys coaching more now than ever, and he doesn’t see himself stopping any time soon. While no one really knows how long his contract runs for, it does not appear that he can up and leave to coach another team. 

While the team will have to undergo some personnel and coaching changes, I am not sure the team will go through many (any?) mediocre years. BB is still in a class of his own at a coach and they manage the salary cap better than any other team. I don’t think either of those change without Brady being around. 

Which is why I am curious what people envision happening to NE. Missing the playoffs? Multiple seasons with 4-6 wins?

honestly it depends on if miami...the jets and the bills can become competitive year in and year out....buffalo appears on track...

and what happened to that defense at thr end of the year? 

 

 

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dave you know this team just went 4 n 5 in their last 9 game stretch....this just wasnt a good team this year.....their first 8 games were buttery soft as well...you almost couldnt have picked and easier start to a season...

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19 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

I’ve asked this in a couple of places. What exactly does the “end of the dynasty” mean or translate to? Assuming Brady is gone, NE adds a couple of pieces, rolls with Stidham, and keeps their defense intact. BB is still the head coach. What record do people think the Pats will have in 2020? (They play the AFC West and NFC West next year in addition to BAL and HOU.)

Sounds like an unusual amount of travel next year.

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Just now, Ditkaless Wonders said:

Sounds like an unusual amount of travel next year.

Things go in cycles. This year, they hardly traveled at all and the furthest they went on the road was Texas. 

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6 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

I get to listen to BB all the time in interviews (not press conferences), where he is much more open and outgoing. He’s mentioned several times that he enjoys coaching more now than ever, and he doesn’t see himself stopping any time soon. While no one really knows how long his contract runs for, it does not appear that he can up and leave to coach another team. 

While the team will have to undergo some personnel and coaching changes, I am not sure the team will go through many (any?) mediocre years. BB is still in a class of his own at a coach and they manage the salary cap better than any other team. I don’t think either of those change without Brady being around. 

Which is why I am curious what people envision happening to NE. Missing the playoffs? Multiple seasons with 4-6 wins?

Wishful thinking by many.

I think even with Stidham and using $'s not spent on Brady fo plug offensive holes they could probably pull out 9-7 or 10-6 in that division with that defense.

And there's always the chance Stidham is the real deal...which would drive haters absolutely crazy.

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8 hours ago, NotSmart said:

I'm not so sure BB will want to stick around for very many more seasons to battle through the likely upcoming mediocre/rebuilding years for NE.

He seems like the type that would relish that challenge.

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14 minutes ago, kyoun1e said:

Wishful thinking by many.

I think even with Stidham and using $'s not spent on Brady fo plug offensive holes they could probably pull out 9-7 or 10-6 in that division with that defense.

And there's always the chance Stidham is the real deal...which would drive haters absolutely crazy.

I'm not doubting a Bill Belichick coached team and I think they'd still compete for a division title but I think the AFC East will be improved overall and it won't be a cakewalk.

Buffalo will likely be the favorite to win the division (in a world where Brady is gone), the Jets finished 6-2 in the second half of the season with a ton of injuries and Miami beat the Pats in New England and look to be on the right path.

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

I get to listen to BB all the time in interviews (not press conferences), where he is much more open and outgoing. He’s mentioned several times that he enjoys coaching more now than ever, and he doesn’t see himself stopping any time soon. While no one really knows how long his contract runs for, it does not appear that he can up and leave to coach another team. 

While the team will have to undergo some personnel and coaching changes, I am not sure the team will go through many (any?) mediocre years. BB is still in a class of his own at a coach and they manage the salary cap better than any other team. I don’t think either of those change without Brady being around. 

Which is why I am curious what people envision happening to NE. Missing the playoffs? Multiple seasons with 4-6 wins?

There have been many reasons for NE’s sustained success.  Two of the biggest, IMO, are Brady being a top QB who played for loss than market value (thus giving them an edge when it comes to managing the cap), and a weak division.  IF Brady leaves, both of those edges could be gone.  Sure, they could have another stud QB in Stidham,  but it’s not guaranteed, and Buffalo looks like they won’t be a pushover in th AFCE any more.  They’d still have BB, and a great D (although I’m not familiar enough with NE’s cap situation to know how that might change), but things WILL be different for NE, IMO.

Edited by Bayhawks

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1 hour ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

dave you know this team just went 4 n 5 in their last 9 game stretch....this just wasnt a good team this year.....their first 8 games were buttery soft as well...you almost couldnt have picked and easier start to a season...

I will use this as a starting point for several comments covering multiple topics. Yes, the NE offense was dysfunctional and stuck in neutral most of the season. Yes, NE lost 5 of their last 9 games. Four were one possession games and the other a 17 point loss to BAL . . . which swung on a scoop and score that could easily have been a 14 point swing. In the loss to KC, the refs blew a clear TD that would have sent the game to OT (the Harry call out of bounds). Had that play had been called properly, NE could have kicked a FG at the end of regulation to tie the game. (Yes, NE has benefited many times over the years by questionable calls.)

For whomever mentioned what happened to the vaunted NE defense over the second half of the season, the defense allowed 18.2 ppg over NE's last 9 games (excluding three return TD's the offense allowed). That would project to 292 points over a full season. That would have been good enough to rank third in points allowed this year. So no, they were not as dominant, they didn't force as many turnovers, they didn't get as many sacks, but they were still a very good defense.

What I find interesting is that NEW ENGLAND is the team that benefitted from a soft schedule and they are in the decline because of it. Yet the other AFC EAST teams are on the rise but no one considers the similar soft schedule each had in evaluating them. Here's how NE fared this year against common opponents vs. their divisional foes.

Buffalo
NE went 2-0 with a +13 scoring differential against BUF
BUF went 9-4 with a +51 scoring differential against common opponents
NE went 10-3 with a +188 scoring differential against common opponents

New York
NE went 2-0 with a +49 scoring differential against NYJ
NYJ went 6-6 with a -51 scoring differential against common opponents
NE went 10-2 with a +159 scoring differential against common opponents

Miami
NE went 1-1 with a +40 scoring differential against MIA
MIA went 3-9 with a -132 scoring differential against common opponents
NE went 11-1 with a +168 scoring differential against common opponents

We don't know what we don't know . . . meaning who knows what the Patriots will look heading into next year. A lot could be different. In the BB / TB era, the Patriots have gone 14-6 when Brady didn't play (Cassel, Jimmy G, Brissett). Cassel hadn't started a football game in 8 years and the team went 11-5. Not really apples to apples, as the roster is way different now than it was in 2008 or 2016.

Another factor lying in the periphery is that over the past 5 season, NE played almost a full season's worth of post season games (14). In that time, SEA was second with 8 and PIT and GB each played 7 playoff games. The Patriots will get an extra month off for the first time since the 2015 season . . . and they will get a jump on evaluating free agents, college players, etc. way earlier than in prior years.

NE has limped down the stretch and underperformed at the end of seasons in the past. In 2015, they finished the season 3-5 . . . and won the SB the following year. In 2009, they finished 3-4 . . . and went 14-2 the following year. In 2002, they finished 4-3 . . . and the following year they won the SB. Other than the Brady recovering from injury year, the last time the team ranked outside the Top 5 in points scored and had no receiving weapons, the team brought in Moss, Welker, Stallworth, and Gaffney. (To state the obvious, no I am not predicting the Patriots are going to the SB next year . . . only pointing out that they have made adjustments, personnel changes, and bounced back in the past.)

None of any of that really matters much, as none of us knows how much Brady has left in the tank if he comes back . . . and NE would really be in uncharted waters if he doesn't. The point being, BB will address the team's issues and target ways to rectify them. Who knows how effective he will be in correcting those issues.
 

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1 hour ago, Faust said:

I remember when Johnny Unitas left Baltimore for the Chargers.  One of the saddest things I've ever had to witness in Professional Football.  He should have retired.   Kind of reminds me of when Muhammad Ali fought Holmes.   I'm not saying Brady is Ali, but he could end up like Unitas with the Chargers.  I believe we're well past Montana with the Chiefs, but probably better than Unitas with the Chargers.

Edited by JohnnyU

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9 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

I will use this as a starting point for several comments covering multiple topics. Yes, the NE offense was dysfunctional and stuck in neutral most of the season. Yes, NE lost 5 of their last 9 games. Four were one possession games and the other a 17 point loss to BAL . . . which swung on a scoop and score that could easily have been a 14 point swing. In the loss to KC, the refs blew a clear TD that would have sent the game to OT (the Harry call out of bounds). Had that play had been called properly, NE could have kicked a FG at the end of regulation to tie the game. (Yes, NE has benefited many times over the years by questionable calls.)

For whomever mentioned what happened to the vaunted NE defense over the second half of the season, the defense allowed 18.2 ppg over NE's last 9 games (excluding three return TD's the offense allowed). That would project to 292 points over a full season. That would have been good enough to rank third in points allowed this year. So no, they were not as dominant, they didn't force as many turnovers, they didn't get as many sacks, but they were still a very good defense.

What I find interesting is that NEW ENGLAND is the team that benefitted from a soft schedule and they are in the decline because of it. Yet the other AFC EAST teams are on the rise but no one considers the similar soft schedule each had in evaluating them. Here's how NE fared this year against common opponents vs. their divisional foes.

Buffalo
NE went 2-0 with a +13 scoring differential against BUF
BUF went 9-4 with a +51 scoring differential against common opponents
NE went 10-3 with a +188 scoring differential against common opponents

New York
NE went 2-0 with a +49 scoring differential against NYJ
NYJ went 6-6 with a -51 scoring differential against common opponents
NE went 10-2 with a +159 scoring differential against common opponents

Miami
NE went 1-1 with a +40 scoring differential against MIA
MIA went 3-9 with a -132 scoring differential against common opponents
NE went 11-1 with a +168 scoring differential against common opponents

We don't know what we don't know . . . meaning who knows what the Patriots will look heading into next year. A lot could be different. In the BB / TB era, the Patriots have gone 14-6 when Brady didn't play (Cassel, Jimmy G, Brissett). Cassel hadn't started a football game in 8 years and the team went 11-5. Not really apples to apples, as the roster is way different now than it was in 2008 or 2016.

Another factor lying in the periphery is that over the past 5 season, NE played almost a full season's worth of post season games (14). In that time, SEA was second with 8 and PIT and GB each played 7 playoff games. The Patriots will get an extra month off for the first time since the 2015 season . . . and they will get a jump on evaluating free agents, college players, etc. way earlier than in prior years.

NE has limped down the stretch and underperformed at the end of seasons in the past. In 2015, they finished the season 3-5 . . . and won the SB the following year. In 2009, they finished 3-4 . . . and went 14-2 the following year. In 2002, they finished 4-3 . . . and the following year they won the SB. Other than the Brady recovering from injury year, the last time the team ranked outside the Top 5 in points scored and had no receiving weapons, the team brought in Moss, Welker, Stallworth, and Gaffney. (To state the obvious, no I am not predicting the Patriots are going to the SB next year . . . only pointing out that they have made adjustments, personnel changes, and bounced back in the past.)

None of any of that really matters much, as none of us knows how much Brady has left in the tank if he comes back . . . and NE would really be in uncharted waters if he doesn't. The point being, BB will address the team's issues and target ways to rectify them. Who knows how effective he will be in correcting those issues.
 

New England was surely the best team in the division and yes all the teams benefitted from a featherweight schedule. I was basing next year on Brady not being there when I said the division wouldn't be the usual cakewalk for them next year. I'm willing to admit that there's a possibility they're better though without a diminished Brady and using the cap to improve other areas. While obviously Brady was great and an integral part I also think Belichick was the most important part of the dynasty so I'm not counting them out if Brady's there or not.

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not going to quote your novel there Yuds. but here is the way I see it.

If the Pats want to make one more run at it, sure, go for it, sign Brady to a 1 year deal and BEG Gronk to come back.

The real strength of the team was the defensive secondary, them dude are getting older.

The division will still be Buffalo and two other chumps, Gase is a joke and even though Miami beat NE in week17 they will be playing a rookie QB probably.

The real problem is I think Baltimore, KC and Houston aren't going anywhere good young mobile QBs, BigBen with one more go round & that defense got nasty as the year went on.  and the Titans probably sign Tannehill back, they seem to have the pats number 

New England lost to the other AFC contenders this year, and believe it or not all 3 of those QBs could IMPROVE. scary really. 

Truth be told, I wanna see Brady and BB break up and see who does better without the other, but Brady is gonna be 43 and should retire but he wont.

 

Edited by bicycle_seat_sniffer

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I am no fan of the Patriots, but I am a fan of greatness... and I think Brady should retire. He's got nowhere to go but (further) down. Nobody outside of Foxboro is going to listen to a 43-yr old system QB w/ diminishing skills yelling at them to "DO THEIR JOB"

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I'm having a hard time believing that Bill will want Tom back at the price he'll demand.

The comparable market is Brees and Rivers. Gotta think Brees gets north of $25M and Rivers was at $21M last year and some dopey team will give him a raise. Brady is NO WAY taking less than Rivers to come back for the Pats. That means, we're talking $25M ish plus another $6.5M in dead money if he signs prior to March 18th.

Just don't see Bill going for this. Only way it happens is if Kraft demands it. And if he does, I could see Bill saying bye bye.

 

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It would be classic Bellicheck for him to contact Miami and to take Josh Rosen off of their scrap heap relatively cheaply, bring him in, and polish that apparent turd into a jewel.  It would be classic Miami to not recognize what they have.  Rosen was a first round talent to many.  He likely can be signed at a bargain price now. 

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1 hour ago, kyoun1e said:

I'm having a hard time believing that Bill will want Tom back at the price he'll demand.

The comparable market is Brees and Rivers. Gotta think Brees gets north of $25M and Rivers was at $21M last year and some dopey team will give him a raise. Brady is NO WAY taking less than Rivers to come back for the Pats. That means, we're talking $25M ish plus another $6.5M in dead money if he signs prior to March 18th.

Just don't see Bill going for this. Only way it happens is if Kraft demands it. And if he does, I could see Bill saying bye bye.

 

Bill could say bye bye but his rights would remain with NE. So they certainly could block him from coaching elsewhere. There's no way around it, if Brady wants to stay in NE, he is going to (again) have to take less money. There was buzz the past few days that he is more concerned about playing in an offense with weapons than the money he would be making. He certainly does not need the money, so he might be willing to take a lot less on the promise that NE will make moves to bring in some better offensive players. (I am sure many will say there is nothing wrong with the players they have and Brady is the problem . . . the reality is probably some of both.)

Once Brady goes, I can see a renewed and refreshed BB going even more balls to the wall to show the world he doesn't need Brady to win. Talk radio in Boston was describing the team moving forward as a 6 win team (which I just don't see) but not in position to draft high enough to get a true stud QB. Impossible to even guess until probably training camp to see where the Pats are headed.

Edited by Anarchy99
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30 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

 (I am sure many will say there is nothing wrong with the players they have and Brady is the problem . . . the reality is problem some of both.)

 

I think most would admit it's "both". Some of Brady's defenders are exaggerating how bad he had it and ignoring the obvious signs of decline and some of the "haters" are exaggerating the level of decline. Brady is still competent enough and like I suggested Indianapolis would be a great landing spot for him. With him in place, they're a playoff team next year but would they beat Baltimore, KC or Pitt? I'm not sure. 

If the Pat are able to re-sign Brady and add some real weapons for him, I think most would say they are the favorites in the AFC East (some may say Buffalo) but the same problem likely exists once we get to the playoffs. I wouldn't write them off, but it's no longer an easy road.

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3 hours ago, Dr. Octopus said:

I think most would admit it's "both". Some of Brady's defenders are exaggerating how bad he had it and ignoring the obvious signs of decline and some of the "haters" are exaggerating the level of decline. Brady is still competent enough and like I suggested Indianapolis would be a great landing spot for him. With him in place, they're a playoff team next year but would they beat Baltimore, KC or Pitt? I'm not sure. 

If the Pat are able to re-sign Brady and add some real weapons for him, I think most would say they are the favorites in the AFC East (some may say Buffalo) but the same problem likely exists once we get to the playoffs. I wouldn't write them off, but it's no longer an easy road.

It was a tale of two seasons for NE on both offense and defense. Offensively, in the first half of the season, NE really did have OL injury and protection issues. But at that point, they had a healthy Edelman, they still had Gordon, and Dorsett was being relatively productive. In the second stage of the season, Brady did get a lot better protection and usually had time to throw.

But by then Edelman was a physical wreck. Henry came back (with no practice time with Brady). Sanu came in not knowing the system (and hurt his ankle). Brady didn't trust Meyers. Dorsett did close to nothing (9 catches and 1 TD his last 9 games). Collectively the receivers struggled to get open. I am sure there are enough pieces of the blame pie to go around to include Brady, the receivers, and McDaniels (whose play calling was pretty disappointing).

That being said, a lot of that really doesn't fall on Brady in terms of the revolving door of guys NE had coming and going from last year and this year. Gronk, Gordon, AB, Demaryius Thomas, Hogan, Patterson, and now Watson all ended up out of the mix. Edelman had 100 receptions. White had 72. No one else had 30. Churning a lot of your receiving targets from year to year (which NE has done quite often) is not really conducive to getting the chemistry right and stimulating good production.

IMO, Brady on ANY team at this point is not the difference maker to get a team into the playoffs and to making a post season run. He is a decent game manager that usually won't make dumb mistakes and won't turn the ball over much. I don't think Brady offers much more than Brissett does at this stage. If the Colts got healthy and that made them a playoff contender, that would not be due to adding Brady.

Brady is best served on a team with a good defense, a strong running game, and a couple of reliable guys that can move the sticks as receivers. IMO, that's NE, TEN, and BUF in the AFC. NE with Devlin back, a blocking TE, one more receiver, and a cohesive OL would be great for Brady. And I doubt TEN or BUF would bring Brady in (unless they want to slot Brady over their existing QB's). Maybe the Bears or the Cowboys in the NFC. Would Jerry actually move on from Dak to bring in TB12?

Edited by Anarchy99
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1 hour ago, Anarchy99 said:

It was a tale of two seasons for NE on both offense and defense. Offensively, in the first half of the season, NE really did have OL injury and protection issues. But at that point, they had a healthy Edelman, they still had Gordon, and Dorsett was being relatively productive. In the second stage of the season, Brady did get a lot better protection and usually had time to throw.

But by then Edelman was a physical wreck. Henry came back (with no practice time with Brady). Sanu came in not knowing the system (and hurt his ankle). Brady didn't trust Meyers. Dorsett did close to nothing (9 catches and 1 TD his last 9 games).Collectively the receivers struggled to get open. I am sure there are enough pieces of the blame pie to go around to include Brady, the receivers, and McDaniels (whose play calling was pretty disappointing).

That being said, a lot of that really doesn't fall on Brady in terms of the revolving door of guys NE had coming and going from last year and this year. Gronk, Gordon, AB, Demaryius Thomas, Hogan, Patterson, and now Watson all ended up out of the mix. Edelman had 100 receptions. White had 72. No one else had 30. Churning a lot of your receiving targets from year to year (which NE has done quite often) is not really conducive to getting the chemistry right and stimulating good production.

IMO, Brady on ANY team at this point is not the difference maker to get a team into the playoffs and to making a post season run. He is a decent game manager that usually won't make dumb mistakes and won't turn the ball over much. I don't think Bray offers much more than Brissett does at this stage. If the Colts got healthy and that made them a playoff contender, that would not be due to adding Brady.

Brady is best served on a team with a good defense, a strong running game, and a couple of reliable guys that can move the sticks as receivers. IMO, that's NE, TEN, and BUF in the AFC. NE with Devlin back, a blocking TE, one more receiver, and a cohesive OL would be great for Brady. And I doubt TEN or BUF would bring Brady in (unless they want to slot Brady over their existing QB's). Maybe the Bears or the Cowboys in the NFC. Would Jerry actually move on from Dak to bring in TB12?

Brady in Dallas would be one of the biggest media circuses ever. It would be fascinating.

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On 1/10/2020 at 10:31 AM, dhockster said:

Brady in Dallas would be one of the biggest media circuses ever. It would be fascinating.

McCarthy couldn't control Rodgers' ego... Brady would be worse 

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29 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

McCarthy couldn't control Rodgers' ego... Brady would be worse 

Huh?

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Looks like McDaniels is back.

Think the odds just increased that they keep the band together for at least another year.

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The Brady clan has vacated their Mass home and now have moved onto their house in Greenwich, CT: The luxury box at Gillette used by Giselle has been emptied out. 

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5 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

The Brady clan has vacated their Mass home and now have moved onto their house in Greenwich, CT: The luxury box at Gillette used by Giselle has been emptied out. 

Charger time or off to the old guy wall walk?

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On 1/12/2020 at 12:28 PM, kyoun1e said:

Looks like McDaniels is back.

Think the odds just increased that they keep the band together for at least another year.

the only way it works is if they beg GRONK to come back, and he does.

 

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13 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

The Brady clan has vacated their Mass home and now have moved onto their house in Greenwich, CT: The luxury box at Gillette used by Giselle has been emptied out. 

The first part doesn’t seem to mean much. Perhaps the second part does, but I’m not sure how much can be read into that. It could be a negotiation tactic or even just a precautionary move.

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55 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

The first part doesn’t seem to mean much. Perhaps the second part does, but I’m not sure how much can be read into that. It could be a negotiation tactic or even just a precautionary move.

really?? greenwich is 3 hours from boston....not like it close....its closer to new york

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5 hours ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

really?? greenwich is 3 hours from boston....not like it close....its closer to new york

Yes. The only two NFL teams closer than Boston would be the 2 NY teams and they’re not going to sign him. This is likely just the home he'll ultimately retire in. Wherever he ends up playing I’m sure he’d just get an apartment somewhere in the area.

Edited by Dr. Octopus

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After observing a lot over the last 10 days, here is a summary of what some people are reporting / speculating / contemplating . . .

- Both Brady and NE were obviously disappointed with the way things ended this year.  However, both sides may have come to the rationalization that both parties may be better off continuing on together.

- Brady didn't even last a week before behind close doors he allegedly started mentioning that maybe things could work out in NE.

- NE is said to not believe Stidham is ready to take over just yet, and while they still think he could develop into a decent QB option, they don't appear confident enough in him yet to hand him the keys to the offense.

- McDaniels coming back really ups the odds of Brady returning.

- NE is feverishly mining what the market will be for Brady's services and what sort of contract offers he might get. On the flip side, they are also monitoring who else will be available as veteran free agent QB's and what their projected cost would be. The one name I have heard come up several times was Andy Dalton.

- By extension, if the options are someone like Dalton or Brady for slightly more money, they would much prefer Brady. PLAN B may be bringing in a lower cost veteran free agent, drafting a QB, and better evaluating Stidham in camp and the one that does best would become the starter.

- Given the clause in Brady's contract that he will become a free agent on 3/18 (I think that is the right date), Brady will have to go on a promise that NE will make a concerted effort to get Brady more pieces offensively. The Pats will not be able to have signed anyone BEFORE that contract deadline, and if a new deal is not consummated by then, NE will have to eat a $13.5 million cap hit for Brady for this year on that date.

- Bottom line, we probably won't have any idea what will happen with Brady for two more months and expect a crazy negotiating window in the legal tampering window between NE, Brady, and other free agents.

- Center David Andrews said he is doing much better (blood clot issues kept him out this past season), and while not yet medically cleared, he believes he will come back in 2020.

- The speculation is that if they can solidify the line and add a WR and TE, that would be enough to bring Brady back (unless they offer him an insult of a contract). That's the scuttlebutt with 8 weeks before things get real for both sides.

- If I had to guess as of what we think we know today, I would suggest the likelihood of Brady coming back to NE would be at around 70%. What we won't know for a while is if there is a team out there willing to throw around crazy money for Brady to make a splash to a fan base to energize interest and ticket sales (Chargers, Raiders, and Dolphins come to mind).

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1 hour ago, Anarchy99 said:

- If I had to guess as of what we think we know today, I would suggest the likelihood of Brady coming back to NE would be at around 70%. What we won't know for a while is if there is a team out there willing to throw around crazy money for Brady to make a splash to a fan base to energize interest and ticket sales (Chargers, Raiders, and Dolphins come to mind).

I'm rooting for the Dolphins to sign as it would be a double bonus, since it would break Pat fans' hearts and I'd be able to hate him just as much since I may hate the Dolphins even more than the Pats.

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Well if he comes back we will get a better read on this year's performance by comparing it with next years.  Me, I think he is in greater decline than he himself thinks. Many of the greats in sport, in all fields of sport have a tough time seeing their own decline and their last year becomes somewhat painful to watch.  Few go out on top.  We shall see, maybe.   

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6 minutes ago, Ditkaless Wonders said:

Well if he comes back we will get a better read on this year's performance by comparing it with next years.  Me, I think he is in greater decline than he himself thinks. Many of the greats in sport, in all fields of sport have a tough time seeing their own decline and their last year becomes somewhat painful to watch.  Few go out on top.  We shall see, maybe.   

What will be interesting is if they start adding pieces that help the team overall or ones that specifically help Brady (as they may not be the same types of players). For example, if they got a burner to target deep routes several times a game, I am not sure that fits Brady's game, and I doubt he has the arm strength to chuck the ball downfield multiple times per game. In many ways, Brady limits the play calling capabilities of the offense (as does not having a regular dual threat back). It's a lot easier for receivers to get open when the defense has to cover more than 10 yards of the field. This year, teams did not have to worry about Michel running routes or the TE's doing much of anything. So the passing game was Edelman and just about nothing else if Michel was in the game. They had more options with White in the game, but no one else had 30 receptions this year. (To be fair, Gordon would have had he stuck around and Sanu had 26 receptions in 8 games.) It will definitely be interesting to see what they do roster wise this off season (and draft wise). If they convince Brady to stick around, I wonder what he would do when they sign a safety, a defensive lineman, and a special teams player the first week of free agency but no offensive players.

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19 minutes ago, Ditkaless Wonders said:

Well if he comes back we will get a better read on this year's performance by comparing it with next years.  Me, I think he is in greater decline than he himself thinks. Many of the greats in sport, in all fields of sport have a tough time seeing their own decline and their last year becomes somewhat painful to watch.  Few go out on top.  We shall see, maybe.   

A lot of Pat homers had trouble with it also.

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