BRADY-LED BUCS: Is Tampa Bay really a Super Bowl contender?
I'm not trying to be a party pooper or throw out clickbait as a perceived hater, but I can't join the masses in suddenly feting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as bona fide Super Bowl LV contenders now that Tom Brady's aboard the pirate ship.
Look, I have the utmost respect for the six-time Super Bowl champion and three-time NFL MVP. His unparalleled on-field accomplishments have indeed made him the G.O.A.T. That said, I think it's laughable that many are touting Tampa Bay as a legitimate title threat because the Bucs just scooped up a soon-to-be 43-year-old quarterback fresh off one of the worst seasons of his career. Despite all the excuses regarding Brady's lack of weapons and suspect offensive line in New England last season, his decline in play can't be ignored when studying the tape or digging into his numbers.
After a sizzling three-game start to 2019 (SEE: 67.9 percent completion rate, 303.7 passing yards per game, 8.6 yards per attempt and a 7:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio), Brady ranked near the bottom of the league in Weeks 4 through 17 in completion percentage (59.4, ranking 28th), yards per attempt (6.2, tied for 30th) and passer rating (82.0, 27th). The 14-time Pro Bowler struggled against pressure, as evidenced by his 37.4 percent completion rate on those throws -- the third-lowest mark in the NFL in 2019 among quarterbacks with at least 30 pass attempts under duress, per Next Gen Stats. Considering he posted a 52.1 percent completion rate against pressure from 2016 through '18, that's a highly concerning downturn. In addition, Brady has limitations when it comes to utilizing the entire field, particularly on throws to the outside. According to Next Gen Stats, he finished with the lowest passer rating (67.4) among 32 qualified quarterbacks on throws to wide targets, along with a 53 percent completion rate and a 5:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio on such throws.
If Brady's most recent numbers are woeful, and they came in the scheme he's run for two decades, why should I expect him to flourish when he gets with the Buccaneers and has to adapt to Bruce Arians' attack while acclimating to a new supporting cast?
Studying Arians' offense from past seasons, it's easy to notice his love of the deep ball. He wants to push the ball downfield every chance he gets, and his previous quarterbacks (Ben Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck, Carson Palmer and Jameis Winston) were more than willing to let it fly. The heavy utilization of five- and seven-step drops places an extraordinary burden on the offensive line while also testing the patience and courage of the quarterback. Vertical routes take time to develop, and the QB has to believe his protection can hold up against ultra-athletic edge rushers and disruptive interior defenders. Last season, Brady seemingly lost his nerve in the pocket under duress. His reluctance to hang tough until the last possible moment resulted in an NFL-high 41 throwaways, per Sports Info Solutions. And given that each of the aforementioned passers (Roethlisberger, Luck, Palmer and Winston) suffered through 40-plus-sack seasons while working under Arians, Brady could take a pounding in this new scheme.
While Arians previously told NFL Network's Michael Silver that he'd be willing to "adapt" his offense to Brady's strengths, it is hard to teach an old dog new tricks. History suggests BA wants the deep ball featured prominently in the offense. If Arians is insistent on continuing to push the ball down the field, he might elect to feature more play-action passes in the game plan. Last season, Brady had 160 dropback attempts on play-action -- compared to Winston's 123 -- and he completed 61.5 percent of these throws with a healthy average of 8.2 yards per attempt. With the Buccaneers capable of utilizing maximum protection from "12" personnel packages (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR) with their best perimeter players on the field (Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate), the team could build a fortress in front of Brady that enables him to find his big-bodied playmakers down the field on an assortment of vertical routes.
Speaking of personnel, there's no denying that Tampa Bay's receiving corps is a significant upgrade over the crew Brady played with last season in New England. He has a pair of 1,000-yard receivers (Evans and Godwin) with the size, strength and speed to dominate opponents in one-on-one matchups. Howard and Brate are a solid 1-2 punch at tight end with the capacity to win on an assortment of seam routes, short crossers and digs over the middle of the field. Considering Brady's propensity for throwing the ball inside the numbers, the Bucs' tight end combo could be the biggest beneficiary of TB12's arrival.
Opponents facing the Buccaneers can also expect to see an uptick in empty formations with Brady at the helm. The no-back sets enable Brady to quickly identify coverage and any possible blitzes while forcing opponents into uncomfortable matchups on the perimeter. Studying Tampa Bay's roster, Evans could really benefit from an increase in no-back formations by moving around within the formation. If No. 13 is capable of playing outside and in the slot within those formations, Evans could avoid some of the double-teams and bracket coverages opponents have deployed to neutralize his impact on the passing game.
Brady frequently targets running backs on swings, screens and checkdowns, taking advantage of sagging defenses intent on taking away deeper throws. The Buccaneers could seek an upgrade at running back, someone with established pass-catching chops. Dare Ogunbowale (35 catches for 286 yards) and Ronald Jones (31 catches for 309 yards) each flashed potential in the passing game last season, but Tampa Bay could use a real threat out of the backfield to maximize Brady's impact.
From an O-line standpoint, the Buccaneers could use a tackle to complement Donovan Smith on the edges. With the No. 14 overall pick in the draft, they could still land a Tier 1 pass protector to make Brady feel more comfortable in the pocket. Meanwhile, the interior trio of LG Ali Marpet, C Ryan Jensen and RG Alex Cappa is rock solid. Marpet and Jensen, in particular, are studs at their respective positions -- their ability to stonewall interior blockers will be critical in allowing the statuesque Brady to excel from the pocket.
These Buccaneers certainly give Brady a great opportunity to reverse the narrative suggesting that his game is on a steep decline, purportedly making him a liability at the game's most important position. He has an all-star cast around him on the perimeter and a fearless play-caller crafting a scheme that apparently will be tailored to the QB's strengths.
That said, personally, I don't expect a change of scenery to result in a renaissance for an aging quarterback with a diminished game. While it'd be quite a thrill to watch Brady guide the Bucs on a magic carpet ride that results in the franchise's second (and Brady's seventh) Lombardi Trophy, I don't believe a new supporting cast will help the 21st-year veteran feel the confetti falling on his shoulders ever again.