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QB Tom Brady, TB (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter ComfortablyNumb
- Start date
Well, that'd be both their losses.
I don't see why it'd be a big deal. People get demoted all the time. Its clear nobody else think s Winston should be starting or he'd have been signed by now.
Maybe I'm underestimating pride/ego here, but those things are bad for business, both team and players.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
So...per thread title...this is the year Brady actually busts, right?
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Johnny B. Goode
Footballguy
I think people tend to underestimate the fact that many of these guys dont mind sitting the bench and getting paid... especially at certain positions where being on the bench still nets you millions of dollars.
Deamon
Footballguy
simsarge
Footballguy
Gotta figure he has a point to prove this year. He's going to try to answer the question of whether he made Belechick or Belechick made him
Perhaps most importantly, an extremely aggressive HC. They likely aren't done adding either. I'd expect RB and WR to be 2 of their top-4 picks in the draft. They'll likely lean toward YAC guys at both spots. So maybe CEH, and say Devin Duvernay or Lynn Bowden? Or if they go WR first, Brandon Aiyuk or KJ Hamler and Zack Moss?
I'd have Brady as a top-10 QB, he's unlikely to hit top-5 unless he hits 40+ TD's though, just because he does zero as a runner. 2015 Carson Palmer is a reasonable outcome I think.
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Tau837
Footballguy
Palmer 2015 is a pretty high bar IMO. I would be surprised if Brady passes for 4615/35.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
Don't know if he will surpass that but wouldn't be shocked AT ALL if he hit around those numbers.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Forget Carson Palmer numbers. Look at last year's Winston numbers. I don't see Brady throwing for 5,000 yards, I don't see him throwing the ball 626 times, and I don't see him being able to withstand 47 sacks. I think people are underestimating that Brady has to play with a new cast of characters and a different set of coaches. And having no way to practice (currently) and likely little time to prepare once (if?) the season gets green lighted won't help getting everyone on the same page any. Sure, if everything pans out for Brady and Tampa, everything clicks, Brady plays like 2007, and no one gets hurt he could have a huge season. But there are plenty of outcomes where Brady has loses some skills, shows his age, or gets hurt and things are not as rosy. Projections for Brady should be all over the map this year, but I am not sure how many people will factor in the chance of poor outcomes into their projections.
It is a high bar agreed. But I don't think its unattainable. Its pretty close to what Brady did in 2017, with an inferior supporting cast(Gronk, Cooks, Amendola were the top-3.)
I think people are really underrating Brady right now from an ability perspective. I think that Pats team could fall apart without him, and that he basically willed the offense to decency last year. Other than Guard, that team was/is in the lower half of the NFL at every single offensive position. Tampa meanwhile, is weak at OT and RB, and that is it. I think Brady is still a top-10 NFL QB.
Brady is an interesting case to me, because I think he's underrated currently, but overrated historically.
Deamon
Footballguy
I know people are talking WR but I just don't see it. They have Godwin and Evans on top of 2 good pass catching tight ends. Using a high draft pick on a rookie WR that won't see a ton of field action doesn't seem that appealing. Tom already has the best receivers he's ever had... he needs some damn protection and defense to keep them in games. I could see a ton of OL and defense with their picks. Tom has never really needed a top RB either, I could see them addressing this later in the draft and FA.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
This may be true, but are people thinking that Godwin and Evans will perform better than Moss and Welker in 2007 with Brady in his prime (210-2668-31 combined)?
He also won't throw 30 INT's, and kill countless drives in the process with bad decisions. The sack numbers could easily drop by 20 for Tampa. Winston was always a slow processing QB, many(maybe most) of those 47 sacks were on him. Brady recognizes blitzes and knows when to get rid of the ball, and is willing to check down. Winston was almost always looking downfield, and never really adjusted in 5 years, which is why he's gone, and still unsigned.
I think Brady can get to 4,500 yards on 570 or so attempts. I fully expect close to 8 YPA, which is about where he was on average the previous 3 years until he ran out of guys to throw to last year. 4,500-35-10, 66% comp %, maybe a QB sneak score or 2.
Anyone expecting 2007 numbers is just being silly. But it'd be silly to expect 2007 Brady numbers from Mahomes .That is simply an freakish outlier season from a historical standpoint for anybody.
Deamon
Footballguy
No, definitely not. Just mean his weapons are better so the chances of them taking a WR in the 1st round (or even 2nd) seem lower.
I do think he has better receivers and a more pass-oriented coach so that will drive his numbers up, but him being past his prime will drive them back down. Still think he has a good year but not the 2007 type year he had from a numbers standpoint.
Tampa actually has a pretty good defense. Other than Safety it doesn't really have much in the way of holes. The OL isn't bad either, its probably on par with NE's. The Bucs are likely at least 10-6 last year with better QB play.
Keep in mind Godwin is in a contract year, and their current #3 is...Scotty Miller?
The RB think isn't a Brady thing, but its kind of an Arians thing.
I think those catches and yards are possible. 31 receiving TD's between 2 guys isn't likely happening anytime soon for Tampa or anyone else.
Yards could probably happen with fewer catches, as Evans/Godwin likely will have higher YPC than Welker ever did.
Deamon
Footballguy
I'll give you the benefit of the doubt on the OL thing because I don't really follow the team that closely to know. That being said, Tampa allowed the 4th most points in the NFL last year so I wouldn't really call that a 'pretty good defense"
Anarchy99
Footballguy
It certainly will be interesting how things play out. I think BB was on to something by trying to build a team around defense, special teams, and running the football to keep Brady healthy and potentially cover up that his skills were starting to deteriorate some. I personally don't think he should be counted on to be the focal point of an offense and have to rely on him too much to win games on his own. Brady the last few years got dinged up some with various minor injuries. Maybe BB was being over protective, but they certainly ran a ton of quick release throws and tons of short passes. That is not the way Arians historically has tried to move the football. I honestly have no idea what those conflicts in styles will mean to the Tampa offense. I didn't get to see a lot of the Bucs play last year, and I do recall Winston trying to force the ball downfield a lot. Sometimes it worked, sometimes it didn't, sometimes the ball got picked off. More than likely, Brady would not have thrown any of those passes as he is certainly more risk averse than Winston. I don't really see Brady putting the ball up for grabs 20+ yards down the field.
Deamon
Footballguy
As much as I think Godwin and Evans are both great, I'd be shocked if they combined for 2700 yards this year. Gotta think he hits around 4500 yards this year if he has a solid year, and close to half of that is going to go to RB's, WR3, WR4, Howard, Gronk.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
To be fair, a ton of those points came on Winston pick 6's. They allowed 30 passing TD (25th ranked) and 11 rushing TD (7th ranked).
Deamon
Footballguy
Yes he's definitely gone downhill especially with his long balls. I just think sheer volume of passes is going to help him. I think they're going to want him to let loose a bit, have fun, and throw the ball around a lot. I could easily see his passing yardage improving to the 4500 range.
Deamon
Footballguy
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Their first and second half splits for the year were very different. JPP was out for the first half of the season. They were much better in the second half.
Deamon
Footballguy
Fair enough. I agree it seems like they weren't as bad as their 4th last ranking shows. But I still wouldn't put them above average.
Tau837
Footballguy
I think it is hard to tell how much the decline in Brady's play was due to decline in his skills, arm strength, etc. vs. not having better receiving targets. You mentioned 2017, so consider his performance since then (excluding the 2000 and 2008 seasons in my 2019 comments, since he had 11 or fewer pass attempts in those seasons):
- Completion percentage: 2017 66.3%, 2018 65.8%, 2019 60.8% (by far his lowest since 2013)
- TD percentage: 2017 5.5%, 2018 5.1%, 2019 3.9% (lowest of his career)
- YPA: 2017 7.9, 2018 7.6, 2019 6.6 (2nd lowest of his career, lowest since 2002)
- YPC: 2017 11.9, 2018 11.6, 2019 10.9 (3rd lowest of his career, lowest since 2002)
- Passer rating: 2017 102.8, 2018 97.7, 2019 88.0 (lowest since 2013)
- Brady's average depth of target was 7.6, which ranked #24 in the league (PFR)
- His bad throw percentage was 20.6%, which tied with Winston for 3rd worst in the league (PFR)
- His on target percentage was 73.1%, which ranked #22 in the league (PFR)
- Among QBs with at least 15 deep attempts in the regular season, his deep target accuracy was 41.9%, which ranked #19; however, he ranked #29 in percentage of deep attempts (PFF)
- Among QBs with at least 100 dropbacks in the regular season, he had the 9th lowest percentage of dropbacks under pressure (29.9%), and his passer rating on those dropbacks was 51.8, which ranked #38 (PFF)
There is a chance he will be rejuvenated and a chance that playing with a stronger set of targets than he had in 2019 will show us that his decline wasn't all on him. But I think fans are overrating how good he is at this point.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I never implied that it was good, but you mentioned they gave up the 4th most points in the league. Winston threw 7 pick 6's, they allowed a punt return TD, and the offense gave up a safety. Just based on that alone, that's 58 points of the 458 allowed with the defense not even on the field. That doesn't factor in however many more times that Winston put opponents in scoring position from his other 23 INTs and 5 lost fumbles. The point being, just looking at the total points allowed is not a true reflection of the defense. They weren't great, but they weren't quite as bad as "Bottom 4."
Deamon
Footballguy
Fair points. One has to think though, that if those pick-6's got tackled or pushed out of bounds, that those points against would be even higher though. Those pick 6's kept the ball out of the opposing offenses hands, and also gave other teams leads which would make them less aggressive offensively.
I agree it probably wasn't as bad as 4th worst but I'd still put their defense below average, and Tom has succeeded much better as you know, with a good defense.
The defense was rough at the start of the year, but really cam on down the stretch. They allowed under 400 yards in all of the last 7 games in the NFL, and were a top-10 unit in DVOA rankings. In the only games they gave up 30+ points during that stretch, Winston averaged 4 TO's per game, with a pick-6 in every game. Really after the bye week the only game the defense played poorly in was the Seattle game, which frankly, Russell Wilson makes most defenses look bad. Even the 49ers struggled with him.
They have 2 really good young CB's in Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis. Arguably the NFL's best coverage(and overall) LB in Lavonte David, another ascending player in Devin Whte, 2 solid pass rushers in JPP and Shaq Barrett, and 2 good interior stars in Vita Vea and Suh.
Tau837
Footballguy
Brady averaged 8.0 YPA 3 times in his career: 2007, 2011, and 2016. His career YPA is 7.5. Expecting 8 YPA seems optimistic IMO.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
actually right now I'd say 3.
I also think Scott Miller could be a decent slot guy there with Brady.
Basically I agree that they would be far better off using resources at RB, OL and defense if they truly want to compete for a Championship.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Sure, the defense may have allowed more points and more yards with fewer turnovers by the Tampa offense, but the counter argument would be that the TAMPA offense could have been the one getting more points, more yards, and more time of possession . . . thus REDUCING what the opponents could do offensively. Overall, Tampa as a team wouldn't have given up MORE points with fewer return TD's allowed. The opposition would not get more than a TD on the possession they would have had.
This is similar to an argument by fans that on a single drive for their favorite team, bad calls and penalties wiped out THREE TOUCHDOWNS. Yet they will go on to say those 21 points would have changed the game. Of course, that one drive could only result in one score, not three.
Bottom line, as you indicated, Tampa seems to be built more on offense and less on defense, so I tend to agree with you that IN NEW ENGLAND, Brady benefited by their defensive minded philosophy. At present, we have no idea if the NE offensive model (a patient, conservative, ball control offense) would work in Tampa (if they even go that direction) and if that style of offense would make the defense look better based just on that. One would expect that the Brady effect would help the defense out some . . . how much is pretty difficult to calculate and predict.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah they're going to be getting better at RB for sure. On the second bolded, have you not seen his % on sneaks? JK.
Maybe I'm optimistic, but I really don't think those 2019 numbers matter much. He had almost nobody to throw to. The Patriots had a bottom 5 in the NFL supporting cast around Brady, and he likely(and I know I'm projecting intent here) played closer to the vest than he needed to, because of how dominant the defense was for then majority of the season. Like Aaron Rodgers last year, I think there were a lot of throwaways that were near a WR, but not really catchable, and I think that was on purpose.I think it is hard to tell how much the decline in Brady's play was due to decline in his skills, arm strength, etc. vs. not having better receiving targets. You mentioned 2017, so consider his performance since then (excluding the 2000 and 2008 seasons in my 2019 comments, since he had 11 or fewer pass attempts in those seasons):
A few other metrics from 2019:
- Completion percentage: 2017 66.3%, 2018 65.8%, 2019 60.8% (by far his lowest since 2013)
- TD percentage: 2017 5.5%, 2018 5.1%, 2019 3.9% (lowest of his career)
- YPA: 2017 7.9, 2018 7.6, 2019 6.6 (2nd lowest of his career, lowest since 2002)
- YPC: 2017 11.9, 2018 11.6, 2019 10.9 (3rd lowest of his career, lowest since 2002)
- Passer rating: 2017 102.8, 2018 97.7, 2019 88.0 (lowest since 2013)
To me, there is clear evidence of a dropoff in 2019. And that was despite playing in a familiar offense with familiar teammates and coaches and playing behind good pass blocking. Last year, Tampa also had good pass blocking, so maybe he will still have that. But new system, coaches, and teammates. He gets a physically diminished Gronk but no James White or Edelman, his security blanket guys for many years.
- Brady's average depth of target was 7.6, which ranked #24 in the league (PFR)
- His bad throw percentage was 20.6%, which tied with Winston for 3rd worst in the league (PFR)
- His on target percentage was 73.1%, which ranked #22 in the league (PFR)
- Among QBs with at least 15 deep attempts in the regular season, his deep target accuracy was 41.9%, which ranked #19; however, he ranked #29 in percentage of deep attempts (PFF)
- Among QBs with at least 100 dropbacks in the regular season, he had the 9th lowest percentage of dropbacks under pressure (29.9%), and his passer rating on those dropbacks was 51.8, which ranked #38 (PFF)
There is a chance he will be rejuvenated and a chance that playing with a stronger set of targets than he had in 2019 will show us that his decline wasn't all on him. But I think fans are overrating how good he is at this point.
I do agree he's probably not the QB he was 3 years ago, but I think the dropoff is more from QB1, to QB10 or so. Not as big as many seem to believe, or that the stats indicate.
Based on this thread, I think Brady is a guy I'm more likely to have in fantasy. Brady, Ryan, Rodgers and Roethlisberger seem to be my guys based on early rankings. People are sick of veterans I guess. Really liking Mayfield too as a post-hype guy.
I'm not saying he'll hit 8.0 YPA, but I think he'll be near it. 7.7+ or so. I think last year's 6.6 was entirely the result of supporting cast and playcalling.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Deamon
Footballguy
Right, but you were subtracting the return TD's and Pick-6's from your stats. Had he not thrown the interception, or had the defense picked it off and been tackled, the passing and rushing defense would have been worse than the 25th and 7th ranked that you mentioned. The truth is likely in the middle, that if Winston reduced his pick 6's, both by throwing less picks, and by the defender being tackled before the endzone, they'd probably rank in between the 28th I mentioned, and 25th/7th you mentioned. Still overall not that great. I agree with other posters on the 2nd half and the injuries, etc... I just don't think their defense overall was very good last year, and at best they were probably slightly below average.
Deamon
Footballguy
His receivers had part to do with it, but Tom has always found a way to do well with bad receivers. You can't ignore the eye test, and you can't possibly tell me you think his arm and accuracy didn't drop off the last 2 years. How much it dropped off is surely debatable, but this isn't the same Tom Brady of the past.
However, with this new offensive scheme, and WR quality, I do think his numbers can and will improve over his last two seasons, but I don't expect 5000 yards or an 8.0 YPA. I think Tampa's offense is going to be exciting and really good, but they really really really need to protect him. Again I know next to nothing about their OL, but a trade for Williams and/or drafting Thomas at 14 if he falls there, would really help.
Other than 2019, the last year Brady had truly bad WR's was 2006. We saw what a difference it made when they massively upgraded in 2007. It just seems to me like 2019 was an outlier and not an indicator, and that a bad supporting cast is the best explanation.
I don't think anybody is arguing that Brady is the same Brady of the past. I'm just arguing that I don't think he's washed up by any means., that he is a monster upgrade from Winston, and is still a top-10 NFL QB. I'd never argue he's still on par with guys like Mahomes or Wilson.
Deamon
Footballguy
His 2018 numbers were not that great either. The last 2 years his numbers have gone down and you can blame that on his receivers, or maybe the fact that he hit 40?!?! Father time eventually gets everyone. Tom is not and will not be the same QB he ever was. I don't think anyone would use the words "washed up" though. He's still very good. His protection of the ball, leadership, reading of defenses, etc more than makes up for what he has lost in arm talent. Like I said, he is going to have a good season in my opinion, and a lot of things are working for him in Tampa. It's the perfect fit for him even if his arm isn't as good.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Here's the thing . . . this may be a very true and accurate statement FOR THE 2019 SEASON. Lots of things have changed since then (new team / weapons / coaches / offensive line / offensive style, climate, COVID, limited practices, etc.). Who knows if those items combined yield a net positive or a net negative. HOWEVER, that doesn't change that Brady will be 43 years old. If his skills had already started declining, his skills ARE NOT going to start getting better at age 43.
I get that there is no comp for Brady. He broke the mold a long time ago. But Peyton went from 4700/39/15 one year to 2249/9/17 and getting benched the next. And that was playing on the same team with the same offensive players with a new, more offensive minded head coach (Kubiak vs. Fox).
We have absolutely no idea what will happen, and if Brady will go from being a Top 3 NFL QB . . . to a Top 10-12 QB to . . . ??? It's unlikely that he will fall to pieces, but other aging QB's have had sudden and precarious drop-offs over the years. I am still concerned that he could suffer a bad injury that will knock him out for either a huge part of the season or most of it. If he does get hurt, it's a pretty safe bet that his recovery timeline would take longer than it would if he were half his age. Yes, that is a concern for all QB's, but playing with a new team with what will probably be a lot fewer pre-season practices, all it takes is one missed blocking assignment for Brady to be pummeled. Hopefully that won't happy, and if it does, maybe there wouldn't even be an injury (or only a minor one). But a major shoulder, throwing hand, knee, back, or hip injury could be career ending (and again, I realize that those types of injuries are the risks for any QB). (To clarify, it might not have been career ending at 25, but it could be at 43.)
That is not that far fetched an outcome. Back in 2008, RB Kevin Faulk was found possessing marijuana while attending a Lil Wayne concert. He got suspended for Week 1 of the upcoming season. Instead, Sammy Morris filled in against the Chiefs with Faulk out for the game. Early in the game, Morris hit an oncoming blitzer on a deep route to Randy Moss. The defender was still able to continue moving forward on the play, Brady got hit low, and he tore his ACL. Who knows what would have happened if Faulk was available, if he would have been in the game, and if his block would have been any better. But the entire season changed on that one play.
The chances of that are admittedly unlikely, but getting a new group of teammates to all work together and think like Brady may be a challenge. Maybe it won't be, who knows? But I would say there is a greater chance of it happening playing for a new team than there would be if he stayed in NE.
Deamon
Footballguy
When exactly did he say his reason for leaving NE was to prove to everyone that he can do it "himself"?
NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
Haha, cmon Dave, maybe there is truth to Gronk just not being able to stand BB anymore and brady peddling maybe theres a chance he comes back for the right situation (IE no BB treating him like ####); so what, can you blame either one is there something wrong with that?Anarchy99 said:
However, I do want to point out that the source here is the Greg Hill show right? Weren't they the same source for the "Brady and Kraft have secret under the table deal for Brady to get partial ownership of the Patriots when he is done playing"
As they say in Boston nowadays, hows that working out for ya?
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NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
I can see where its easy for those not watching closely or with a certain bias to pick PFF stats they like such as #38 in blah blah blah and ignore PFF had him rated as the 10th qb overall in the league. I watched every game and he can still throw deep and can still throw with zip. I certainly concede that throwing the ball deep has never ever been Bradys forte sans moss yr but the nattering no nothings prattling on about his lack of arm strength are boobs who do not watch him play much.I think it is hard to tell how much the decline in Brady's play was due to decline in his skills, arm strength, etc. vs. not having better receiving targets. You mentioned 2017, so consider his performance since then (excluding the 2000 and 2008 seasons in my 2019 comments, since he had 11 or fewer pass attempts in those seasons):
A few other metrics from 2019:
- Completion percentage: 2017 66.3%, 2018 65.8%, 2019 60.8% (by far his lowest since 2013)
- TD percentage: 2017 5.5%, 2018 5.1%, 2019 3.9% (lowest of his career)
- YPA: 2017 7.9, 2018 7.6, 2019 6.6 (2nd lowest of his career, lowest since 2002)
- YPC: 2017 11.9, 2018 11.6, 2019 10.9 (3rd lowest of his career, lowest since 2002)
- Passer rating: 2017 102.8, 2018 97.7, 2019 88.0 (lowest since 2013)
To me, there is clear evidence of a dropoff in 2019. And that was despite playing in a familiar offense with familiar teammates and coaches and playing behind good pass blocking. Last year, Tampa also had good pass blocking, so maybe he will still have that. But new system, coaches, and teammates. He gets a physically diminished Gronk but no James White or Edelman, his security blanket guys for many years.
- Brady's average depth of target was 7.6, which ranked #24 in the league (PFR)
- His bad throw percentage was 20.6%, which tied with Winston for 3rd worst in the league (PFR)
- His on target percentage was 73.1%, which ranked #22 in the league (PFR)
- Among QBs with at least 15 deep attempts in the regular season, his deep target accuracy was 41.9%, which ranked #19; however, he ranked #29 in percentage of deep attempts (PFF)
- Among QBs with at least 100 dropbacks in the regular season, he had the 9th lowest percentage of dropbacks under pressure (29.9%), and his passer rating on those dropbacks was 51.8, which ranked #38 (PFF)
There is a chance he will be rejuvenated and a chance that playing with a stronger set of targets than he had in 2019 will show us that his decline wasn't all on him. But I think fans are overrating how good he is at this point.
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/03/25/bruce-arians-perception-tom-brady-cant-throw-deep-is-wrong/
In his introductory press conference on Tuesday, Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady said that he thinks head coach Bruce Arians’ offense is great for quarterbacks and said he’ll be “throwing the ball to the guy who’s open” when asked about Arians-led offenses throwing a lot of deep balls.
Some have questioned Brady’s ability to consistently deliver such passes, but Arians isn’t among them. He said on Wednesday that “the perception is just wrong” and that Brady was “outstanding” in that area. According to ESPN, Brady completed 43 percent of his passes that went traveled more than 20 yards in the air. That was good for seventh-best in the league, so it seems the team won’t be removing any plays from the playbook.
Who the hell was he throwing deep to last yr? He can still toss the ball 60yds so how far does he have to throw it?
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Tau837
Footballguy
What do you think Arians is going to say? Praise from him at this point means nothing. He obviously likes Brady or they wouldn't have signed him. That doesn't mean you can take every positive thing he says about Brady at face value.
You cite PFF's overall grade for him but want to dismiss PFF's data about him throwing deep. Perhaps you can't see the inconsistency there.
Then again, anyone with a different opinion than you is apparently a "nattering do nothing" and a "boob," so what's the point of engaging with you about it?
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