Jeremy
Footballguy
I think takes year off to battle legal troubles might be a bit low while options 4 and 5 might be a bit high. I think there's a relatively high probability that he either killed the guy or was an accessory to murder but walks due to a top notch defense team and/or lack of evidence.Instead of assuming he won't play for five years, why don't we assign a level of probability based on what we know now?Lets reset the panic button some.
Hernandez appears to be in some trouble; let's assume that just so we are all evaluating from the same position. So lets assume he is in trouble and let's assume he won't play for five years. As crazy as that seems to hold a player, lets remember that if that happened, he would still be young enough to come back and put up five more years of top production. That's not a given of course but with all things being equal, the point is to illustrate that, given his known level of talent, isn't it crazy to even consider trading him away for such low compensation?
If you tell me today that he won't play for two years, I'm still holding a dynasty spot for him and saying "see you when you're 25" before I'm trading him away for 3rd rounders and houslers and second rate talent.
Here is a guess:
Not sure how this happens, but ok - Nothing comes of it, plays all season - 5%
Cooperates with police, someone else did it, gets slap on wrist - Misses significant time (4-10 games) - 20%
Takes year off to battle legal troubles for season, ultimately gets off - Misses 1 season - 20%
Eventual accessory to murder conviction or indefinite ban by Goodall with later reinstatement - Misses multiple seasons (2-5 years) - 30%
Murder conviction or lifetime ban or both - NFL Career Is Over - 25%
Does this seem far off to most of you? I actually am struggling to not assign much higher probabilities to the last three choices, but am trying not to overreact. Hard not to, given the way Hernandez has acted guilty with cleaners, cell destruction, security destruction and by the various news reports.
I think there's about a 75% chance he misses 2 years or less. You've got the possibility of a Ray Lewis type plea bargain that might keep him in jail for one season and suspended for another, or he may go to trial and be aquitted, like you said.
We're also dealing with the Patriots who don't mind low character guys, so If you can stomach having this creep on your roster I'd consider trying to get him cheaply.