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ZWK

ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (updated post-draft April-May 2019)

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14 hours ago, ZWK said:

The idea that TEs need time to develop often gets overstated - a lot of great TEs were already putting up much stronger numbers than his in their second season.

Along similar lines, are we as a community massively overrating Evan Engram right now?  I don't necessarily mean in terms of his spot in the rankings (the scarcity of elite options almost dictates we have to put him there), but rather in regards to the value gap between him and other guys that are ranked similarly like Henry, Njoku, etc.

The reason I ask is that when we look beyond Engram's volume stats last year, his efficiency was really pretty horrific for a TE.  55% catch rate and 6.25 YPT are both really bad and don't measure up to what other elite TE options were doing as young players.  For instance Gronk as a rookie was 71% catch and 9.25 YPT and those numbers only went up from there.  Kelce in his first year playing (2nd year on the roster) was 77% catch and 9.9 YPT.  Ertz was a little closer, at 63% catch and 8.2 YPT as a rookie, but still well ahead of Engram.

Engram's efficiency numbers are more inline with other overhyped flops like Ebron (53% catch, 5.27 YPT).  He just had a lot more volume.

Now getting that volume is not nothing, and the lack of other options that led to that volume likely didn't help the efficiency, but I think the thoughts that he had a 1st year similar to guys like Gronk or Kelce or Ertz has some pretty large gaps in it.  Maybe those lack of options means we give it a pass but at that point, why wouldn't he have value the same as someone like Njoku (who also wasn't ver efficient) or Howard instead of way above it?

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4 minutes ago, thriftyrocker said:

:ph34r:

Haha, fair enough, but the 1st four weeks are the least valuable weeks in the season. Nobody is hurt, nobody is on bye. And now Edelman is more likely to be healthy during the fantasy playoffs since his risk of injury from weeks 1-4 is zero!

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On 6/7/2018 at 3:42 PM, FF Ninja said:

the 1st four weeks are the least valuable weeks in the season. Nobody is hurt, nobody is on bye

:goodposting:

This seems obvious, but it seems that there are many who either don't see it this way or don't think critically about it. Edelman is a pretty strong buy at his likely price IMO, whereas I don't think his suspension should really move the needle on Hogan's value.

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I can't buy the Travis Kelce hype. I mean, he's good a 3x pro bowl player, but he's wildly inconsistent.

he seems to get his stats in bunches.

in 2017 , he played in 15 regular season games.. he caught 6 or fewer balls in 8 games..

only once did he catch 6 balls in any of those games...

1 single 5 rec game

4 catches , four  times

3 catches just  once 

and one game with a single rec

those are pretty ho-hum stats for a supposedly top flight TE..the inconsistency is enough to drop him down the list..especially with Mahomes at QB, and the Vegas o/u for KC wins at just 8, I think this team takes a HUGE step backwards..

first 3 weeks he went 5/40, 8/103/1, 1/1 - yikes..

final 7 weeks of the season he avg'd 5.5 catches/gm, and scored 4 TDs during that span, including a 2-td game..pretty ordinary , otherwise..

I say this as a person who had him and traded him away mid-season..

we're probably missing the point on Engram - a full season with OBJ and now Barkley is going to open things up for the 2nd year phenom. he's going to make some noise.

Gronk might be bigger than ever, with the loss of B.C. and Edelman and Amendola. who's left? 

 

 

 

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On 07/06/2018 at 1:42 PM, FF Ninja said:

Haha, fair enough, but the 1st four weeks are the least valuable weeks in the season. Nobody is hurt, nobody is on bye. And now Edelman is more likely to be healthy during the fantasy playoffs since his risk of injury from weeks 1-4 is zero!

Yeah.....no. You still need to win games early or late, most guys come back rusty, a lot of guys get minor injuries like hamstring pulls, you probably can't start him his first week or two back so you might not play him the first six weeks, hes probably off roids now so he'll be slower and weaker, etc, etc. Great news.

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2 hours ago, Tanner9919 said:

I can't buy the Travis Kelce hype. I mean, he's good a 3x pro bowl player, but he's wildly inconsistent.

he seems to get his stats in bunches.

in 2017 , he played in 15 regular season games.. he caught 6 or fewer balls in 8 games..

only once did he catch 6 balls in any of those games...

1 single 5 rec game

4 catches , four  times

3 catches just  once 

and one game with a single rec

those are pretty ho-hum stats for a supposedly top flight TE..the inconsistency is enough to drop him down the list..

I think your expectations are kind of out of whack here.  Reading this none of that sounded that bad to me, so I went back and checked some other guys...

Gronk:
Caught 6 or fewer in 10 out of 14 games
Caught 4 or fewer 6 times
Caught 3 or fewer 4 times

Ertz
Caught 6 or fewer in 10 out of 14
Caught 4 or fewer 5 times
Caught 3 or fewer 4 times

Kelce (per your stats)
Caught 6 or fewer in 8 out of 15
Caught 4 or fewer 4 times
Caught 3 or fewer 2 times

So what exactly are you expecting out of your TEs here?  If Kelce doesn't fit the bill on this, literally no one does.  Literally every TE in the league was worse than him on the stats you're looking at.

Even top WRs aren't really much/any better.

Antonio Brown
Caught 6 or fewer in 6 out of 14
Caught 4 or fewer 4 times
Caught 3 or fewer 2 times

Julio
Caught 6 or fewer in 12 out of 16
Caught 4 or fewer 5 times
Caught 3 or fewer 3 times

 

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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43 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I think your expectations are kind of out of whack here.  Reading this none of that sounded that bad to me, so I went back and checked some other guys...

Gronk:
Caught 6 or fewer in 10 out of 14 games
Caught 4 or fewer 6 times
Caught 3 or fewer 4 times

Ertz
Caught 6 or fewer in 10 out of 14
Caught 4 or fewer 5 times
Caught 3 or fewer 4 times

Kelce (per your stats)
Caught 6 or fewer in 8 out of 15
Caught 4 or fewer 4 times
Caught 3 or fewer 2 times

So what exactly are you expecting out of your TEs here?  If Kelce doesn't fit the bill on this, literally no one does.  Literally every TE in the league was worse than him on the stats you're looking at.

Even top WRs aren't really much/any better.

Antonio Brown
Caught 6 or fewer in 6 out of 14
Caught 4 or fewer 4 times
Caught 3 or fewer 2 times

Julio
Caught 6 or fewer in 12 out of 16
Caught 4 or fewer 5 times
Caught 3 or fewer 3 times

 

But he traded him though, he must be overrated.

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12 hours ago, voiceofunreason said:

Yeah.....no. You still need to win games early or late, most guys come back rusty, a lot of guys get minor injuries like hamstring pulls, you probably can't start him his first week or two back so you might not play him the first six weeks, hes probably off roids now so he'll be slower and weaker, etc, etc. Great news.

But on how many teams would Edelman be an every week starter? I would expect that he would be a rotation player for most teams, based on matchups, injuries, and byes. So this is just 4 games he doesn't rotate in.

Even if he is an every week starter, how big is the likely dropoff from him to a replacement player in those first 4 weeks, when most players are at their healthiest? How many games is that dropoff really likely to cost his owners?

And I wouldn't hesitate to play him in week 5.

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12 hours ago, Tanner9919 said:

in 2017 , he played in 15 regular season games.. he caught 6 or fewer balls in 8 games..

Wait, what?  You're complaining about a guy that caught more than six passes in seven different games?

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@ZWK why so low in Kirk? I agree that long term Sutton is ahead of Kirk, but just curious what your thoughts were. 

 

I like the list. I think you are low on Guice but it's nice to see someone else's rankings. ty

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Agreed on Edelman being a good buy. The fantasy playoffs are basically half the season (having a guy for the fantasy playoffs but not the fantasy regular season helps roughly as much as the reverse, and is about half as good as having him for all the games), and Edelman is just missing about 1/3 of the fantasy regular season, so he loses about 1/6 of his value for this year. Some uncertainty with his age and returning from his injury, but more likely than not he returns to his 6+ receptions per game role.

I don't pay much attention to week-to-week consistency because it just isn't that important. 1) An inconsistent player has almost no effect on how much your team wins, compared to a more consistent player who scores the same total points (unless the inconsistency leads to you make bad sit-start decisions). 2) As FreeBaGeL showed with Kelce, a player who we think of as "inconsistent" usually wasn't much (or any) more inconsistent than other players. 3) Past inconsistency is only a weak predictor of future inconsistency; the guy who was inconsistent last season won't necessarily be inconsistent next season. 4) I suspect that past inconsistency is a weak predictor of future total production, especially for guys (like Kelce) who have a strong multi-year track record of past total production.

Christian Kirk didn't produce enough in college, by my numbers, so I'm relatively down on him as a prospect. I see him as part of a relatively big tier of guys in this year's WR class who are all clearly behind the top 3 (Moore, Ridley, Sutton);

Derrius Guice fell to the end of the 2nd round. He went 20-30 picks behind Michel/Chubb/Jones; I have him just slightly behind those guys in my rankings so I'm still rating him ahead of where his draft position alone would place him. My formulas were even lower on him than his draft position, but before the draft I was inclined to put more weight on the love he was getting from the fantasy community than on my formulas (it seemed plausible that his numbers were down this past year just because he was playing through injuries). But then he fell in the draft too. Also, questions about his receiving chops are a negative in PPR.

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On ‎6‎/‎7‎/‎2018 at 0:42 PM, FF Ninja said:

Haha, fair enough, but the 1st four weeks are the least valuable weeks in the season. Nobody is hurt, nobody is on bye. And now Edelman is more likely to be healthy during the fantasy playoffs since his risk of injury from weeks 1-4 is zero!

Not if you win those four weeks in your league. One loss can make the difference in making your league playoffs or not. Those early week wins can make the difference...and once you make the playoffs, anything can happen.

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4 minutes ago, squistion said:

Not if you win those four weeks in your league. One loss can make the difference in making your league playoffs or not. Those early week wins can make the difference...and once you make the playoffs, anything can happen.

IF one player makes the difference between a win or loss, then sure. But generally speaking my statement is undeniably true. Those four weeks are the weeks where it is least valuable to have a previously projected bench player scoring extra points. You don't need that guy to fill in for injury or fill in for a bye. You are probably benching a pretty solid player to start him.

You should have the depth to cover Edelman for 4 weeks while your team is healthy and not on byes. If you are starting Hogan during those 4 weeks, who are you benching? Probably somebody pretty good or else you are likely hosed after Edelman comes back.

There was a FBG article (last year maybe) that showed just how infrequently a single player makes a difference in a win. It was mainly detailing if you should give up much for a trade to cover a bye week, but the principle fits for this situation. The conclusion was that one player rarely makes a difference between a win or a loss. So having Hogan as an early season, 4 week rental will probably net you 0.1 extra wins over whoever you would've been starting. 

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15 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

IF one player makes the difference between a win or loss, then sure. But generally speaking my statement is undeniably true. Those four weeks are the weeks where it is least valuable to have a previously projected bench player scoring extra points. You don't need that guy to fill in for injury or fill in for a bye. You are probably benching a pretty solid player to start him.

You should have the depth to cover Edelman for 4 weeks while your team is healthy and not on byes. If you are starting Hogan during those 4 weeks, who are you benching? Probably somebody pretty good or else you are likely hosed after Edelman comes back.

There was a FBG article (last year maybe) that showed just how infrequently a single player makes a difference in a win. It was mainly detailing if you should give up much for a trade to cover a bye week, but the principle fits for this situation. The conclusion was that one player rarely makes a difference between a win or a loss. So having Hogan as an early season, 4 week rental will probably net you 0.1 extra wins over whoever you would've been starting. 

So one guy doesn't matter, so just pick a kicker in the first round. They are some incredibly weak arguments.

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47 minutes ago, voiceofunreason said:

So one guy doesn't matter, so just pick a kicker in the first round. They are some incredibly weak arguments.

That's not what he said, and you know it. Why bother posting about it if you aren't actually willing to have an intellectually honest exchange?

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14 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

That's not what he said, and you know it. Why bother posting about it if you aren't actually willing to have an intellectually honest exchange?

some people just like to watch the world burn

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On 6/9/2018 at 6:18 PM, ZWK said:

 1) An inconsistent player has almost no effect on how much your team wins, compared to a more consistent player who scores the same total points (unless the inconsistency leads to you make bad sit-start decisions). `

I am bad at sit-start decisions.  It also depends on format; I like inconsistent players more in bigger lineups or best ball formats.

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I've been looking over historical TE VBD from the past 30 years. Three patterns jumped out:

1. How top-heavy the position is. A few guys account for a large fraction of all fantasy value. Last year it was Gronk, Kelce, and Ertz; those 3 combined for more than half of all TE VBD. If you look at all the VBD that all TEs have gotten over the past 30 years, half of it is accounted for by the top 14 guys (Gonzalez, Sharpe, ..., Green, Novacek). It's roughly 1/4 from the top 4 guys, 1/4 from guys 5-14, 1/4 from guys 15-34, and 1/4 from everyone else combined.

2. Draft position tells you a lot. First round TEs have an incredibly good track record, 2nd and 3rd rounders pan out with a decent frequency, and guys drafted after that (and UDFAs) occasionally pop up. There were 19 TEs drafted in the first round from 1997 to 2013, and 18 of them have been fantasy starters for at least one season. Yes, 18/19, 95%, every single one except Anthony Becht. There were 65 TEs drafted in rounds 2-3 over that time period, and those guys have combined to account for about as much VBD as the 19 first rounders. Another 172 TEs were drafted in rounds 4+ over that time period, and those guys have combined to account for about 1/3 as much VBD as the first rounders. UDFAs have about as much VBD as rd 4+ guys, with almost all of the UDFA VBD coming from Antonio Gates. (In other words, VBD has been 3/8 first rounders, 3/8 rd 2-3 TEs, 1/8 rd 4+ TEs, 1/8 Gates & other UDFAs.)

3. Elite TEs usually break out in year 2, and very good TEs are usually at least fantasy starters within their first 2 seasons and stars within their first 4. The 7 TEs with 300+ career VBD who entered the NFL since 1997 all had an 80+ VBD season within their first 3 years; 6 of the 7 did it in their first 2 years (Gonzalez had just 31 VBD in year 2 before breaking out with 76/849/11 in year 3). If we lower the cutoff to 200+ career VBD, and also include 3 active guys who have a good chance of hitting that mark (Walker, Reed, Ertz), then we get to a sample of 18 TEs. 15 out of the 18 were fantasy starters within their first 2 seasons (with Winslow, Walker, and Ertz as the exceptions), and Winslow missed his entire 2nd season with a torn ACL. 14 out of the 18 had their first 50+ VBD season within their first 4 seasons (Clark & Ertz did it in year 5, Olsen in year 8, and Walker in year 10).

 

The strategy that this suggests for TE prospects:

Acquire highly drafted rookie TEs, especially first rounders and to a lesser extent rd 2-3 guys. Hold or buy these guys after their first season, too.

If a young TE isn't a fantasy starter within his first 2 years then sell or dump him, with possible exceptions for guys with a really good excuse (like missing a year with an ACL) or who came really close (like Ertz's 58/702/3 stat line).

If he's a fantasy starter within his first 2 years but hasn't put up big numbers, you might have to wait a few years to see if he takes that next step. He probably won't be the next Gates or Gronk, but he might be the next Vernon Davis or Greg Olsen. You should be willing to sell if the market is real high on him, though it could be worth holding for at least another year or two.

 

Looking at the current TE landscape, there are a lot of good prospects out there. Engram, Howard, Njoku, and Hurst are first rounders from the past 2 draft classes. Henry is a 2016 second rounder who hit the "fantasy starters within first 2 years" standard. Gesicki, Everett, Shaheen, and Goedert are second rounders. It's rare for there to be so many rd1-2 TEs (compared to history and probably also compared to the next several years), and most of these guys are valued primarily for their receiving. Kittle is going into his second year and has a good shot at being a fantasy starter within his first 2 years. If you want to go deeper, Andrews, Akins, and Jonnu Smith are 3rd rounders, and Ian Thomas & Herndon are early 4th rounders.

Right now, Hurst, Everett, and Shaheen look like the best dynasty buys. They're all going outside the top 20 TEs, according to all the sources I've seen, and have pretty good prospects. Pretty ridiculous for a first round TE to be going after Ricky Seals-Jones, Charles Clay, or Jonnu Smith, given what we've seen from first round TEs over the past couple decades. The second year second rounders are more likely than Hurst to be complete busts, but upside matters more and history suggests that (contrary to popular lore about TEs) you don't need to hang onto them for long to see if they pan out - it's pretty safe to cut bait later this season if you don't like what you see. The other rd 1-2 guys (Engram, Howard, Njoky, Henry, Gesicki, Goedert) are more expensive, but might be worth it. Hunter Henry is at least worth asking about; often injured players get discounted too much (as Adam Harstad often notes). In deeper leagues & TE premium, Akins & Herndon are among my favorite end-of-roster adds.

I am trying to stock up on a whole bunch of these guys (especially in deeper and TE premium leagues). This seems like an unusually good opportunity to get good TE prospects, and while some of them are pricy others are pretty cheap. I wouldn't be worried about rostering "too many" of them unless I'm literally running out of roster space. For one thing, the majority of prospects bust; no need to worry about roster imbalance unless it affects my starting lineup. For another thing, TE is super top-heavy - if I wind up with both the next Gronk and the next Cooley on my team, I'll be way better off than if I only had the next Cooley. Also, most dynasty leagues allow trades.

There are also some TEs out there who this analysis cautions against. Austin Hooper has made it through 2 seasons without coming close to the "fantasy starter" standard, Trey Burton has done it through 4 seasons, and Vance McDonald has done it through 5. Kyle Rudolph has been around for 7 years without hitting the 50 VBD standard, and Ebron & ASJ haven't done it in their 4 seasons (though they did all hit the "fantasy starter within first 2 years" standard). These guys all have some fantasy value, and some upside (as you get farther down the career VBD rankings there is more variability in the shape of players' careers, and some very good TEs like Walker & Olsen have some resemblance to the careers so far of guys like Burton & Ebron), but I am generally less high on them than their market value.

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9 hours ago, ZWK said:

Right now, Hurst, Everett, and Shaheen look like the best dynasty buys

Good post. Understand you are using historical VBD relating to draft position, but how do you apply situational context?

For Shaheen, the team signed Burton to a big contract this offseason to "play the Kelce role in the offense" and also brought in 3 WRs (Robinson, Gabriel, Miller). I'm not seeing Shaheen as one of the best few dynasty buys given those facts, but interested in your thoughts on it.

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I agree that the Burton signing is bad for Shaheen's value, but that is already priced in (or more than priced in) to his cheap cost to acquire. At the rankings I'm seeing, in most leagues the biggest cost to acquiring Shaheen is the roster spot.

The biggest question is whether Shaheen is good. The fact that the Bears chose to bring in Burton is evidence that he's not good. But their new coaching staff didn't know that much more about Shaheen than the general public does, and I think it's not a huge update. Shaheen still has all the qualities that made him a 2nd round pick, and as a rookie he at least showed his red zone skills even though he didn't see the field much. By the end of this season (or even by the middle) we'll have a lot more info on whether Shaheen is good, and if it looks like he's not then you can cut bait.

The other issue with Burton is that he's competition for touches, and that also reduces Shaheen's value. But there are various possibilities for how that will play out. Gronk produced even with Hernandez there. Vernon Davis kept Delanie Walker on the bench. Ertz kept Burton on the bench. Plenty of big free agent TE signings have busted. Most of them, actually - since 2011 Burton has the 8th biggest FA TE contract (for players changing teams, as % of the cap per season), behind Julius Thomas to JAX in 2015, Jared Cook to STL in 2013, Zach Miller from OAK to SEA in 2011, Jimmy Graham to GB in 2018, Charles Clay to BUF in 2015, Jordan Cameron to MIA in 2015, and Coby Fleener to NO in 2016. If Shaheen does look good, then maybe Burton is good too and that will reduce Shaheen's value and maybe Burton isn't that good and won't reduce Shaheen's value.

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Looking through my dynasty rosters, the guys that I own the most are: Sammy Watkins, Eric Ebron, John Ross, Gerald Everett, Adam Shaheen, and Darren Sproles.

Starting from the bottom: Darren Sproles has consistently been a 10ppg guy in Philly (PPR), and he has been free or very cheap to acquire. At age 35, on a cheap contract, coming off a torn ACL, with Clement looking good in the playoffs, he might be a lot less than a 10ppg guy this year. But he might still be a 10ppg guy, in which case he'll provide nice RB depth at very little cost (especially in deeper leagues and best ball leagues, which are overrepresented among the leagues that I'm in). And we're likely to have a pretty good idea by week 3 (if not sooner) which of those worlds we're in, so if he is diminished then it'll be easy to cut him and move on to play the waiver wire.

I just wrote a lot about guys like Everett & Shaheen. They're second round TEs going into their second season, and they seem like high-upside players. Everett was great after the catch in college and his rookie year, showed strong athleticism at the combine, was highly regarded by PFF, and looks to have a great coaching staff. Shaheen went to a tiny school where he had big production, especially in the red zone. They have been underpriced since they entered the league, probably partly because of they were part of a strong draft class that included better TE prospects. On average only about 2 TEs per year get drafted in the first round and a half, which marks both of these guys as strong prospects in the eyes of NFL decision makers. Also, I tend to play in TE premium leagues which makes these guys more clearly worth the roster space.

John Ross is another guy whose trade value is way below his NFL draft value. I liked him less than a typical first round WR coming into the league, and his first season was a huge disappointment, but dude was a top 10 pick in the NFL draft a year ago and he has obvious strengths. He's being valued near guys like Dede Westbrook and Paul Richardson. I think he was undervalued coming into the league (relative to where he should have been given what we knew then) and is now even more undervalued.

I don't think that Watkins and Ebron are great buys at this point. I think I like Watkins a bit more than the consensus, and Ebron near the consensus. They're on my rosters more because I thought they were undervalued a year or two ago, and they haven't flipped to overvalued so I haven't sold them.

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On 7/25/2018 at 0:24 AM, ZWK said:

Looking through my dynasty rosters, the guys that I own the most are: Sammy Watkins, Eric Ebron, John Ross, Gerald Everett, Adam Shaheen, and Darren Sproles.

Starting from the bottom: Darren Sproles has consistently been a 10ppg guy in Philly (PPR), and he has been free or very cheap to acquire. At age 35, on a cheap contract, coming off a torn ACL, with Clement looking good in the playoffs, he might be a lot less than a 10ppg guy this year. But he might still be a 10ppg guy, in which case he'll provide nice RB depth at very little cost (especially in deeper leagues and best ball leagues, which are overrepresented among the leagues that I'm in). And we're likely to have a pretty good idea by week 3 (if not sooner) which of those worlds we're in, so if he is diminished then it'll be easy to cut him and move on to play the waiver wire.

I just wrote a lot about guys like Everett & Shaheen. They're second round TEs going into their second season, and they seem like high-upside players. Everett was great after the catch in college and his rookie year, showed strong athleticism at the combine, was highly regarded by PFF, and looks to have a great coaching staff. Shaheen went to a tiny school where he had big production, especially in the red zone. They have been underpriced since they entered the league, probably partly because of they were part of a strong draft class that included better TE prospects. On average only about 2 TEs per year get drafted in the first round and a half, which marks both of these guys as strong prospects in the eyes of NFL decision makers. Also, I tend to play in TE premium leagues which makes these guys more clearly worth the roster space.

John Ross is another guy whose trade value is way below his NFL draft value. I liked him less than a typical first round WR coming into the league, and his first season was a huge disappointment, but dude was a top 10 pick in the NFL draft a year ago and he has obvious strengths. He's being valued near guys like Dede Westbrook and Paul Richardson. I think he was undervalued coming into the league (relative to where he should have been given what we knew then) and is now even more undervalued.

I don't think that Watkins and Ebron are great buys at this point. I think I like Watkins a bit more than the consensus, and Ebron near the consensus. They're on my rosters more because I thought they were undervalued a year or two ago, and they haven't flipped to overvalued so I haven't sold them.

 

I hope you got all those guys on the cheap.

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@ZWK

I'm just curious; in your QB rankings you have Mariota as a top 10 dynasty QB and 1 spot ahead of Jameis Winston. 

Can you explain what you see in Mariota that has him ranked so highly considering Tennessee's dedication towards the run and his lack of production so far through year 3?

Do you foresee a significant rise in production to warrant the ranking?

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TE rankings headed into the season. Assuming PPR, 12 TE starters, and about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/18. Prev from 5/14/18.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    Rob Gronkowski    NE    29.3    (2)
1    2    Travis Kelce    KC    28.9    (1)
2    3    Evan Engram    NYG    24.0    (4)
2    4    Zach Ertz    PHI    27.8    (3)
3    5    David Njoku    CLE    22.1    (6)
3    6    O.J. Howard    TB    23.8    (7)
3    7    Hunter Henry    LAC    23.7    (5)
4    8    Jimmy Graham    GB    31.8    (8)
4    9    Mike Gesicki    MIA    22.9    (9)
4    10    Kyle Rudolph    MIN    28.8    (15)
4    11    Jordan Reed    WAS    28.2    (10)
4    12    Hayden Hurst    BAL    25.0    (12)
4    13    Dallas Goedert    PHI    24.7    (17)
4    14    Gerald Everett    RAM    24.2    (11)
5    15    George Kittle    SF    24.9    (16)
5    16    Trey Burton    CHI    26.8    (20)
5    17    Tyler Eifert    CIN    28.0    (14)
5    18    Greg Olsen    CAR    33.5    (21)
5    19    Delanie Walker    TEN    34.1    (24)
5    20    Eric Ebron    IND    25.4    (13)
5    21    Jack Doyle    IND    28.3    (19)
5    22    Adam Shaheen    CHI    24.9    (18)
6    23    Mark Andrews    BAL    22.0    (22)
6    24    Cameron Brate    TB    27.2    (25)
6    25    Austin Hooper    ATL    23.8    (23)
6    26    Austin Seferian-Jenkins    JAX    25.9    (26)
6    27    Jordan Akins    HOU    26.4    (29)
6    28    Ricky Seals-Jones    ARI    23.5    (28)
6    29    Jonnu Smith    TEN    23.0    (27)
6    30    Chris Herndon    NYJ    22.5    (33)
7    31    Charles Clay    BUF    29.5    (34)
7    32    Jared Cook    OAK    31.4    (32)
7    33    Jake Butt    DEN    23.1    (37)
7    34    Vance McDonald    PIT    28.2    (56)
7    35    Ben Watson    NO    37.7    (38)
7    36    Tyler Kroft    CIN    25.9    (40)
7    37    Tyler Higbee    RAM    25.7    (36)
7    38    Ian Thomas    CAR    22.2    (39)
7    39    Nick Vannett    SEA    25.5    (41)
7    40    Vernon Davis    WAS    34.6    (35)
8    41    Rico Gathers    DAL    24.6    (31)
8    42    Luke Willson    DET    28.6    (63)
8    43    Hakeem Valles    DET    25.8    unr
8    44    Ryan Griffin    HOU    28.6    (49)
8    45    Ed Dickson    SEA    31.1    (44)
8    46    Virgil Green    LAC    30.1    (71)
8    47    Jeff Heuerman    DEN    25.8    (45)
8    48    Jesse James    PIT    24.2    (43)
8    49    Antonio Gates        38.2    (67)
8    50    Braedon Bowman    LAC    24.6    unr
8    51    Will Dissly    SEA    22.1    (47)
8    52    Seth DeValve    CLE    25.6    (42)
8    53    David Morgan    MIN    25.3    unr
8    54    Jordan Leggett    NYJ    23.6    (53)
8    55    Blake Jarwin    DAL    24.1    unr
9    56    Jordan Thomas    HOU    22.1    unr
9    57    Coby Fleener        29.9    (46)
9    58    Dalton Schultz    DAL    22.1    (48)
9    59    Tyler Conklin    MIN    23.1    (64)
9    60    Michael Roberts    DET    24.3    (52)
9    61    Maxx Williams    BAL    24.4    (50)
9    62    Erik Swoope    IND    26.3    (54)
9    63    A.J. Derby    MIA    26.9    (55)
9    64    Dwayne Allen    NE    28.5    (58)
9    65    Eric Saubert    ATL    24.3    (60)
9    66    Niles Paul    JAX    29.1    (61)
9    67    Nick Boyle    BAL    25.5    (62)

Dropped: Stephen Anderson (30) and some guys in the 50s or later.

Some shifts based on the thoughts I laid out here, though a lot of those thoughts were already incorporated in my rankings (even though I hadn't articulated them as clearly before). I think the biggest change based on that is moving Ebron down; despite his draft pedigree and the hints of promise his chances of becoming a stud TE are not good.

Generally I've moved up guys who have good redraft rankings; redraft rankings were less settled back in May & I wasn't paying as much attention to them then. One reasonable approach to dynasty TEs (which is basically what Mr. Irrelevant advocated) is to devote ~half your efforts to finding a starter for this year, treating it like redraft and going season-to-season, while the other ~half of your efforts are spent going after young high-upside prospects hoping to land the next Gronk/Graham/Gates/etc.

Depth charts are looking clearer in some places, which has led to some reshuffling in the bottom half of the rankings.

Edited by ZWK
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3    6    O.J. Howard    TB    23.8    (7)
3    7    Hunter Henry    LAC    23.7    (5)

 

I'd trade Howard for Henry in the blink of an eye.

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1 minute ago, BigSteelThrill said:

3    6    O.J. Howard    TB    23.8    (7)
3    7    Hunter Henry    LAC    23.7    (5)

 

I'd trade Howard for Henry in the blink of an eye.

Why??? :/

You can probably do so 6 months from now and get a 2nd or 3rd to sweeten the deal.  

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Love the depth at TE right now. Good mixture of win now guys and high ceiling prospects. Eifert and Ebron are interesting redemption candidates. Among the young guys, I like the value of the two Baltimore TEs. They're both good and they're sooo cheap in drafts. Hurst is routinely available in the late 2nd-mid 3rd of rookie drafts and I've gotten Andrews for a 4th. Great value at those prices. Also high on Njoku, though I'm not sure I'd commit an early pick on him in a startup. Fantasypros.com has him at 58th overall and that just feels a bit pricey for any TE who isn't an established difference-maker.

The depth at TE in general is so good that I think the play this year in redraft and in dynasty is probably to go cheap, spitball it, and use your high picks elsewhere.

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1 hour ago, cockroach said:

Why??? :/

You can probably do so 6 months from now and get a 2nd or 3rd to sweeten the deal.  

What? The Henry owner wont trade Henry in 6 months from now.

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1 hour ago, BigSteelThrill said:

What? The Henry owner wont trade Henry in 6 months from now.

Really depends on how OJ does.  He might establish himself as a top TE this year.  Henry isn't doing dick. 

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3 minutes ago, cockroach said:

Really depends on how OJ does.  He might establish himself as a top TE this year.  Henry isn't doing dick. 

:lol:

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2 hours ago, EBF said:

Love the depth at TE right now. Good mixture of win now guys and high ceiling prospects. Eifert and Ebron are interesting redemption candidates. Among the young guys, I like the value of the two Baltimore TEs. They're both good and they're sooo cheap in drafts. Hurst is routinely available in the late 2nd-mid 3rd of rookie drafts and I've gotten Andrews for a 4th. Great value at those prices. Also high on Njoku, though I'm not sure I'd commit an early pick on him in a startup. Fantasypros.com has him at 58th overall and that just feels a bit pricey for any TE who isn't an established difference-maker.

The depth at TE in general is so good that I think the play this year in redraft and in dynasty is probably to go cheap, spitball it, and use your high picks elsewhere.

Hurst seems like such good value right now. Going in the 3rd round of rookie drafts with Gesiki and sometimes Dallas going ahead of him. An every down TE with 1st rd pedigree, will just have to see how Lamar likes to use his TE. Seems like could be a fire and forget top 10 TE for many years to come.

 

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8 minutes ago, BigSteelThrill said:

:lol:

Yea, it's so laughable that a guy like Howard could jump into the top 5 conversation at TE. 

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7 minutes ago, cockroach said:

Yea, it's so laughable that a guy like Howard could jump into the top 5 conversation at TE. 

Its not.  But Henry was top 3 right before his injury.  His injury doesnt change that much at all for next year.  Now you'll give up a pick an Henry in 6 months?

Cameron Brate just signed a 6 year deal. Winston?  Who knows.  I wouldn't hesitate to trade OJ for Henry right now. And Ill have no shot at that trade in a few months.

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18 minutes ago, FreshiZ said:

Hurst seems like such good value right now. Going in the 3rd round of rookie drafts with Gesiki and sometimes Dallas going ahead of him. An every down TE with 1st rd pedigree, will just have to see how Lamar likes to use his TE. Seems like could be a fire and forget top 10 TE for many years to come.

 

Yea, I wound up with him in 4/5 rookie drafts. He has WR-like athleticism and route fluidity. Was showing some nice things before the injury:

https://twitter.com/Ravens/status/1026950169047126016

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UINXywNvZpM

I don't see a Gonzo/Gronk ceiling there, but I think you're getting something in the ballpark of a prime Pitta-Heap-Shockey.

ESPN has him at dynasty TE22. Fantasypros.com has him at TE21. Yikes.

He's a steal at those prices. I'm not sure why nobody likes the guy. The track record of first round TEs is quite good and he looks solid in film. I think it's just a case where the age and the lack of name recognition/familiarity are keeping the price down. I was getting this guy in the 25-30+ range of rookie drafts in May and that's just crazy value for a guy who was the 7th skill player picked in the draft this year (QB/RB/WR/TE). Obviously the positional value of TE hurts his overall value, but so many of the scrub RB/WRs people reached for ahead of him are going to be irrelevant in a year or two when he's starting every week for FF teams.

When you can get a quality prospect like this in the 3rd round of your rookie draft, it's just found money because usually in that range you have to settle for some very fringe type of talents.

 

Edited by EBF

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59 minutes ago, BigSteelThrill said:

Its not.  But Henry was top 3 right before his injury.  His injury doesnt change that much at all for next year.  Now you'll give up a pick an Henry in 6 months?

Cameron Brate just signed a 6 year deal. Winston?  Who knows.  I wouldn't hesitate to trade OJ for Henry right now. And Ill have no shot at that trade in a few months.

I've never seen HH ranked that high. I guess you have him above Gronk due to age?  I guess we'll see where the community has them ranked this off-season.  I'm guessing very few will have Henry in their top 5.  

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3 hours ago, BigSteelThrill said:

Its not.  But Henry was top 3 right before his injury.  His injury doesnt change that much at all for next year.  Now you'll give up a pick an Henry in 6 months?

Cameron Brate just signed a 6 year deal. Winston?  Who knows.  I wouldn't hesitate to trade OJ for Henry right now. And Ill have no shot at that trade in a few months.

I wouldn’t hesitate to trade Henry for OJ. If I owned OJ I’d need something decent on top to move him for Henry, even before the injury. One is a generational TE talent, the other is an above average TE but without special traits.

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20 hours ago, ZWK said:

3    7    Hunter Henry    LAC    23.7    (5)
8    46    Virgil Green    LAC    30.1    (71)
8    49    Antonio Gates        38.2    (67)
8    50    Braedon Bowman    LAC    24.6    unr

I thought it was odd that you included Bowman and not Culkin, even before Bowman was cut today. I view Culkin as a better receiver than both Green and Bowman.

After cuts, the Chargers currently only have 2 TEs on their 53 man roster -- Green and Culkin. My guess is that this means Gates will be signed soon.

Anyway, you can probably drop Bowman from your rankings at this point...

Edited by Just Win Baby

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31 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:
21 hours ago, ZWK said:

3    7    Hunter Henry    LAC    23.7    (5)
8    46    Virgil Green    LAC    30.1    (71)
8    49    Antonio Gates        38.2    (67)
8    50    Braedon Bowman    LAC    24.6    unr

I thought it was odd that you included Bowman and not Culkin, even before Bowman was cut today. I view Culkin as a better receiver than both Green and Bowman.

After cuts, the Chargers currently only have 2 TEs on their 53 man roster -- Green and Culkin. My guess is that this means Gates will be signed soon.

Anyway, you can probably drop Bowman from your rankings at this point...

I added Bowman to my rankings a few weeks ago when he was getting some buzz. I hadn't realized how things had changed. I'll drop him from my rankings and add Culkin, probably a few spots behind where I had Bowman.

On some of the other players that have come up:

I see Henry vs. Howard as basically a tossup.

Agreed that Hurst is wildly underrated. Highly drafted young TEs are pretty valuable, at least compared to most other TEs. On the previous page of this thread I picked out Hurst & Everett as two of the most underrated guys around (also Shaheen, though he is less valuable if he is out for a while, eating up roster space while we don't get any new info on how good he is).

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WR rankings headed into the season. Assuming PPR, start 3 WR, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/18. Prev from 5/1/18.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    Odell Beckham Jr.    NYG    25.8    (1)
1    2    DeAndre Hopkins    HOU    26.2    (2)
2    3    Michael Thomas    NO    25.5    (4)
2    4    Mike Evans    TB    25.0    (3)
2    5    Antonio Brown    PIT    30.1    (5)
3    6    Keenan Allen    LAC    26.3    (7)
3    7    Davante Adams    GB    25.7    (6)
4    8    Tyreek Hill    KC    24.5    (9)
4    9    Amari Cooper    OAK    24.2    (8)
4    10    Jarvis Landry    CLE    25.8    (12)
4    11    Julio Jones    ATL    29.6    (10)
4    12    Brandin Cooks    RAM    24.9    (11)
4    13    Allen Robinson    CHI    25.0    (13)
4    14    Stefon Diggs    MIN    24.8    (17)
4    15    JuJu Smith-Schuster    PIT    21.8    (18)
5    16    A.J. Green    CIN    30.1    (14)
5    17    T.Y. Hilton    IND    28.8    (15)
5    18    Adam Thielen    MIN    28.0    (19)
5    19    D.J. Moore    CAR    21.4    (22)
5    20    Corey Davis    TEN    23.6    (21)
5    21    Doug Baldwin    SEA    29.9    (23)
5    22    Sammy Watkins    KC    25.2    (16)
6    23    Courtland Sutton    DEN    22.9    (32)
6    24    Calvin Ridley    ATL    23.7    (24)
6    25    Demaryius Thomas    DEN    30.7    (25)
6    26    Golden Tate    DET    30.1    (28)
6    27    Josh Gordon    CLE    27.4    (20)
6    28    Mike Williams    LAC    23.9    (30)
6    29    Alshon Jeffery    PHI    28.5    (29)
6    30    Will Fuller    HOU    24.4    (31)
6    31    Marvin Jones    DET    28.5    (33)
6    32    John Ross    CIN    22.8    (34)
6    33    Robby Anderson    NYJ    25.3    (40)
7    34    Anthony Miller    CHI    23.9    (44)
7    35    Devin Funchess    CAR    24.3    (37)
7    36    Cooper Kupp    RAM    25.2    (36)
7    37    Sterling Shepard    NYG    25.6    (41)
7    38    Chris Godwin    TB    22.5    (58)
7    39    Tre’Quan Smith    NO    22.7    (46)
7    40    DeVante Parker    MIA    25.6    (27)
7    41    Larry Fitzgerald    ARI    35.0    (49)
7    42    Christian Kirk    ARI    21.8    (50)
7    43    Kelvin Benjamin    BUF    27.6    (42)
7    44    Kenny Golladay    DET    24.8    (43)
7    45    Marquise Goodwin    SF    27.8    (73)
7    46    James Washington    PIT    22.4    (53)
7    47    Julian Edelman    NE    32.3    (55)
7    48    Chris Hogan    NE    29.9    (57)
7    49    Michael Gallup    DAL    22.5    (45)
7    50    Randall Cobb    GB    28.0    (54)
7    51    Robert Woods    RAM    26.4    (47)
7    52    Dez Bryant        29.8    (35)
7    53    Josh Doctson    WAS    25.7    (39)
7    54    Cameron Meredith    NO    25.9    (48)
7    55    Taywan Taylor    TEN    23.5    (60)
8    56    Emmanuel Sanders    DEN    31.4    (56)
8    57    Dante Pettis    SF    22.9    (52)
8    58    Nelson Agholor    PHI    25.3    (59)
8    59    Tyler Lockett    SEA    25.9    (70)
8    60    Jamison Crowder    WAS    25.2    (66)
8    61    D.J. Chark    JAX    21.9    (61)
8    62    Michael Crabtree    BAL    31.0    (64)
8    63    Pierre Garcon    SF    32.1    (65)
8    64    Keelan Cole    JAX    25.4    (71)
8    65    Kenny Stills    MIA    26.4    (86)
8    66    John Brown    BAL    28.4    (67)
8    67    Antonio Callaway    CLE    21.6    (63)
8    68    Donte Moncrief    JAX    25.1    (62)
8    69    Allen Hurns    DAL    26.8    (74)
8    70    Keke Coutee    HOU    21.6    (77)
9    71    Marqise Lee    JAX    26.8    (51)
9    72    Zay Jones    BUF    23.4    (68)
9    73    Curtis Samuel    CAR    22.1    (69)
9    74    Paul Richardson    WAS    26.4    (75)
9    75    Tyrell Williams    LAC    26.6    (83)
9    76    Jordy Nelson    OAK    33.3    (81)
9    77    Rishard Matthews    TEN    28.9    (88)
9    78    Geronimo Allison    GB    24.6    unr
9    79    Dede Westbrook    JAX    24.8    (90)
9    80    Chad Williams    ARI    23.9    (91)
9    81    Ryan Grant    IND    27.7    (111)
10    82    DaeSean Hamilton    DEN    23.5    (80)
10    83    Phillip Dorsett    NE    25.7    (117)
10    84    Terrelle Pryor    NYJ    29.2    (82)
10    85    DeSean Jackson    TB    31.7    (87)
10    86    Laquon Treadwell    MIN    23.2    (89)
10    87    Jordan Lasley    BAL    21.8    (92)
10    88    Ted Ginn    NO    33.4    (94)
10    89    Tyler Boyd    CIN    24.8    unr
10    90    Quincy Enunwa    NYJ    26.3    (96)
10    91    Marquez Valdes-Scantling    GB    23.9    (113)
10    92    Deon Cain    IND    22.1    (99)
10    93    Jordan Matthews        26.1    (76)
10    94    Kevin White    CHI    26.2    (78)
10    95    Mohamed Sanu    ATL    29.0    (121)
10    96    Cole Beasley    DAL    29.3    (106)
10    97    Danny Amendola    MIA    32.8    (116)
10    98    Jermaine Kearse    NYJ    28.6    (130)
11    99    Chester Rogers    IND    24.6    unr
11    100    Cordarrelle Patterson    NE    27.5    unr
11    101    Willie Snead    BAL    25.9    (93)
11    102    Jeremy Maclin        30.3    (85)
11    103    J'Mon Moore    GB    23.3    (79)
11    104    ArDarius Stewart    NYJ    24.7    (97)
11    105    Trent Taylor    SF    24.3    (98)
11    106    Brandon Marshall    SEA    34.4    (120)
11    107    Equanimeous St. Brown    GB    21.9    (100)
11    108    Torrey Smith    CAR    29.6    (101)
11    109    Taylor Gabriel    CHI    27.6    (103)
11    110    Albert Wilson    MIA    26.1    (105)
11    111    Brandon Zylstra    MIN    25.4    unr
11    112    Josh Malone    CIN    22.4    (108)
11    113    Jaleel Scott    BAL    23.5    (109)
11    114    Mike Wallace    PHI    32.1    (110)
11    115    Corey Coleman        24.2    (26)
11    116    Shelton Gibson    PHI    23.5    unr
11    117    J.J. Nelson    ARI    26.4    (118)
11    118    Cody Latimer    NYG    25.9    (119)
11    119    Justin Watson    TB    23.4    (122)
11    120    Chris Conley    KC    25.9    (125)
11    121    Mack Hollins    PHI    25.0    (127)
11    122    Martavis Bryant        26.7    (38)
11    123    Josh Reynolds    RAM    23.5    (131)
11    124    Travis Benjamin    LAC    28.7    unr
11    125    Rashard Higgins    CLE    23.9    unr
11    126    Tajae Sharpe    TEN    23.7    unr
11    127    Terrance Williams    DAL    29.0    unr
11    128    Jaron Brown    SEA    28.6    unr
11    129    Chris Moore    BAL    25.2    unr
11    130    Ryan Switzer    PIT    23.8    unr

Falling out of the rankings: Carlos Henderson (72), Daurice Fountain (84), Malcolm Mitchell (95), and some tier 11 folks.

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9 hours ago, ZWK said:

4    12    Brandin Cooks    RAM    24.9    (11)
7    36    Cooper Kupp    RAM    25.2    (36)
7    51    Robert Woods    RAM    26.4    (47)
11    123    Josh Reynolds    RAM    23.5    (131)

@ZWK:

Just included Reynolds for completeness here, not so interested in him. I am interested in your thought process on Kupp vs. Woods. 15 spots seems like a big difference in their rankings, though you have them in the same tier. Also, it doesn't seem likely that all 3 of Cooks, Kupp, and Woods can possibly match these rankings.

Last season average targets per game:

  • Woods - 7.1
  • Kupp - 6.3
  • Watkins - 4.7
  • All other WRs (Austin, Cooper, Reynolds, Thomas) - 4.5

That was with the Rams attempting 518 passes, which was #24 in the NFL. They had 454 rushing attempts, which was #9 in the NFL. While it seems they could attempt more passes, nothing has changed that would suggest fewer rushing attempts... so I'm not sure it makes sense to count on a non-trivial increase in passing attempts.

Surely Cooks will get more targets than Watkins did, given what they gave up for him and what they paid him via a rumored contract extension. But will he get enough targets to be a top 10 WR? It seems that at least 7 targets per game is the minimum for a player to have a shot, and most top 10 WRs are at 8+. Cooks seems like a guy who could do it on 7, since he should get deep targets.

If Cooks gets 7 targets per game, how do the remaining targets get split between Kupp, Woods, and the others? The team favored Woods over Kupp last season, but Kupp was a rookie, so does that change?

Also, the team only targeted TEs 88 times. Does that number go up, and, if so, does it eat into WR targets? I assume no.

Both Woods and Kupp played well last season. I'm afraid that they will split the targets fairly evenly, limiting value for both this season. If that happens, dynasty value for both may be capped until/unless one of them leaves the team.

But Kupp is under a rookie contract for 3 more years, and I don't see Woods going anywhere, since they just signed him one year ago, and he played well in his first season with the team, and his cap number is not particularly high after 2018.

Thoughts?

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Kupp is ahead of Woods mainly because he was a rookie which gives him more potential to improve. (And I think this is true even though they're just 1.2 years apart in age.) The gap isn't huge, though; as you note there are a lot of similarly valued WRs in that part of the rankings.

It's true that the mainline scenario for the Rams is that the 3 WRs split the targets and that limits all 3 of their production. But there is plenty of uncertainty in FF - guys who looked solid a couple of years ago who aren't doing much anymore. If any one of them falters, that is a significant boost to the other two.

For instance, maybe for each of Cooks, Woods, and Kupp there is a 75% chance that he'll be a healthy solid player (or better) for the Rams over the next 2 years. That means that Kupp has a 25% chance of having a rough 2 years with an injury or something, a 42% chance of contributing as part of a spread-the-wealth offense with 3 solid or better WRs, and a 33% chance of having a bigger opportunity as part of an offense where either Cooks or Woods is out or struggling.

Compared to the other guys that are near him in the rankings, that's not bad. The 7th tier contains a bunch of young okay prospects (rounds 2-3) who aren't going to have that great of a hit rate, some former top prospects who may be on their way to busting, some old guys without many years left, some useful NFL receivers who may or may not have much fantasy value, etc.

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QB rankings headed into the season. Assuming 12 QB starters and about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/18. Prev from 5/12/18.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev

1    1    Russell Wilson    SEA    29.8    (1)
1    2    Carson Wentz    PHI    25.7    (2)
1    3    Aaron Rodgers    GB    34.7    (3)
1    4    Deshaun Watson    HOU    23.0    (4)
2    5    Andrew Luck    IND    29.0    (5)
2    6    Jimmy Garoppolo    SF    26.8    (6)
2    7    Baker Mayfield    CLE    23.4    (7)
2    8    Marcus Mariota    TEN    24.8    (8)
3    9    Jameis Winston    TB    24.7    (9)
3    10    Cam Newton    CAR    29.3    (10)
3    11    Jared Goff    RAM    23.9    (11)
3    12    Sam Darnold    NYJ    21.2    (12)
3    13    Dak Prescott    DAL    25.1    (13)
3    14    Tom Brady    NE    41.1    (15)
3    15    Kirk Cousins    MIN    30.0    (17)
3    16    Patrick Mahomes    KC    23.0    (18)
3    17    Matt Ryan    ATL    33.3    (16)
3    18    Mitchell Trubisky    CHI    24.0    (19)
3    19    Lamar Jackson    BAL    21.6    (20)
3    20    Drew Brees    NO    39.6    (21)
3    21    Matthew Stafford    DET    30.6    (22)
3    22    Josh Rosen    ARI    21.6    (23)
3    23    Ben Roethlisberger    PIT    36.5    (25)
3    24    Josh Allen    BUF    22.3    (24)
3    25    Derek Carr    OAK    27.4    (14)
4    26    Philip Rivers    LAC    36.7    (26)
4    27    Tyrod Taylor    CLE    29.1    (27)
4    28    Case Keenum    DEN    30.5    (28)
4    29    Andy Dalton    CIN    30.8    (29)
4    30    Alex Smith    WAS    34.3    (32)
4    31    Ryan Tannehill    MIA    30.1    (30)
4    32    Teddy Bridgewater    NO    25.8    (31)
4    33    Blake Bortles    JAX    26.7    (38)
5    34    Sam Bradford    ARI    30.8    (34)
5    35    Nick Foles    PHI    29.6    (33)
5    36    Chad Kelly    DEN    24.4    (40)
5    37    Mason Rudolph    PIT    23.1    (35)
6    38    Kyle Lauletta    NYG    23.5    (36)
6    39    Jacoby Brissett    IND    25.7    (43)
6    40    DeShone Kizer    GB    22.7    (42)
6    41    Eli Manning    NYG    37.7    (45)
6    42    Joe Flacco    BAL    33.6    (59)
6    43    Mike White    DAL    23.4    (48)
6    44    Robert Griffin III    BAL    28.5    (57)
6    45    Colin Kaepernick        30.8    (44)
6    46    Josh McCown    NYJ    39.2    (47)
6    47    Nathan Peterman    BUF    24.3    unr
7    48    A.J. McCarron    OAK    28.0    (37)
7    49    Ryan Fitzpatrick    TB    35.8    (58)
7    50    Johnny Manziel        25.7    (39)
7    51    Trevor Siemian    MIN    26.7    (51)
7    52    Ryan Griffin    TB    28.8    unr
7    53    Cody Kessler    JAX    25.3    (61)
7    54    Brian Hoyer    NE    32.9    (55)
7    55    Davis Webb        23.6    (41)
7    56    C.J. Beathard    SF    24.8    (52)
7    57    Blaine Gabbert    TEN    28.9    (53)
7    58    Mike Glennon    ARI    28.7    (54)
7    59    Paxton Lynch        24.6    (46)
7    60    David Fales    MIA    27.9    unr
7    61    Brett Hundley    SEA    25.2    (60)
7    62    Brock Osweiler    MIA    27.8    (62)
7    63    Geno Smith    LAC    27.9    (63)
7    64    Chase Daniel    CHI    31.9    (64)
7    65    Matt Moore        34.1    (65)
7    66    Luke Falk    MIA    23.7    (49)
7    67    Tom Savage        28.4    (56)

Not many changes since May, or even since March. Biggest mover is probably Carr sliding down to the bottom of tier 3. There has also been some reshuffling of the later tiers. I haven't cleaned out tier 7 as well as I should, which is not that relevant since I probably wouldn't take any QB after tier 4 in the format that these are intended for.

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20 minutes ago, ZWK said:

QB rankings headed into the season. Assuming 12 QB starters and about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/18. Prev from 5/12/18.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
2    8    Marcus Mariota    TEN    24 (8)
3    16    Patrick Mahomes    KC    23.0    (18)

Would take Mahomes over Mariota without second thought 

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Forgive me if I have asked before - what gives with the Agholor ranking?  He’s about 30 spots too low in my opinion.  If I recall, you were fairly high on him coming out.  His early struggles shouldn’t be held against him, much like you don’t pay any mind to Davante Adams’ bad seasons with his ranking.  

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Agholor only had about 50 yards per game in his "breakout" season. He doesn't seem especially likely to take on a high volume role, and the TD rate probably won't continue.

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On ‎8‎/‎31‎/‎2018 at 11:33 PM, ZWK said:t

TE rankings headed into the season. Assuming PPR, 12 TE starters, and about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/18. Prev from 5/14/18.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    Rob Gronkowski    NE    29.3    (2)
1    2    Travis Kelce    KC    28.9    (1)
2    3    Evan Engram    NYG    24.0    (4)
2    4    Zach Ertz    PHI    27.8    (3)
3    5    David Njoku    CLE    22.1    (6)
3    6    O.J. Howard    TB    23.8    (7)
3    7    Hunter Henry    LAC    23.7    (5)
4    8    Jimmy Graham    GB    31.8    (8)
4    9    Mike Gesicki    MIA    22.9    (9)
4    10    Kyle Rudolph    MIN    28.8    (15)
4    11    Jordan Reed    WAS    28.2    (10)
4    12    Hayden Hurst    BAL    25.0    (12)
4    13    Dallas Goedert    PHI    24.7    (17)
4    14    Gerald Everett    RAM    24.2    (11)
5    15    George Kittle    SF    24.9    (16)
5    16    Trey Burton    CHI    26.8    (20)
5    17    Tyler Eifert    CIN    28.0    (14)
5    18    Greg Olsen    CAR    33.5    (21)
5    19    Delanie Walker    TEN    34.1    (24)
5    20    Eric Ebron    IND    25.4    (13)
5    21    Jack Doyle    IND    28.3    (19)
5    22    Adam Shaheen    CHI    24.9    (18)
6    23    Mark Andrews    BAL    22.0    (22)
6    24    Cameron Brate    TB    27.2    (25)
6    25    Austin Hooper    ATL    23.8    (23)
6    26    Austin Seferian-Jenkins    JAX    25.9    (26)
6    27    Jordan Akins    HOU    26.4    (29)
6    28    Ricky Seals-Jones    ARI    23.5    (28)
6    29    Jonnu Smith    TEN    23.0    (27)
6    30    Chris Herndon    NYJ    22.5    (33)
7    31    Charles Clay    BUF    29.5    (34)
7    32    Jared Cook    OAK    31.4    (32)
7    33    Jake Butt    DEN    23.1    (37)
7    34    Vance McDonald    PIT    28.2    (56)
7    35    Ben Watson    NO    37.7    (38)
7    36    Tyler Kroft    CIN    25.9    (40)
7    37    Tyler Higbee    RAM    25.7    (36)
7    38    Ian Thomas    CAR    22.2    (39)
7    39    Nick Vannett    SEA    25.5    (41)
7    40    Vernon Davis    WAS    34.6    (35)
8    41    Rico Gathers    DAL    24.6    (31)
8    42    Luke Willson    DET    28.6    (63)
8    43    Hakeem Valles    DET    25.8    unr
8    44    Ryan Griffin    HOU    28.6    (49)
8    45    Ed Dickson    SEA    31.1    (44)
8    46    Virgil Green    LAC    30.1    (71)
8    47    Jeff Heuerman    DEN    25.8    (45)
8    48    Jesse James    PIT    24.2    (43)
8    49    Antonio Gates        38.2    (67)
8    50    Braedon Bowman    LAC    24.6    unr
8    51    Will Dissly    SEA    22.1    (47)
8    52    Seth DeValve    CLE    25.6    (42)
8    53    David Morgan    MIN    25.3    unr
8    54    Jordan Leggett    NYJ    23.6    (53)
8    55    Blake Jarwin    DAL    24.1    unr
9    56    Jordan Thomas    HOU    22.1    unr
9    57    Coby Fleener        29.9    (46)
9    58    Dalton Schultz    DAL    22.1    (48)
9    59    Tyler Conklin    MIN    23.1    (64)
9    60    Michael Roberts    DET    24.3    (52)
9    61    Maxx Williams    BAL    24.4    (50)
9    62    Erik Swoope    IND    26.3    (54)
9    63    A.J. Derby    MIA    26.9    (55)
9    64    Dwayne Allen    NE    28.5    (58)
9    65    Eric Saubert    ATL    24.3    (60)
9    66    Niles Paul    JAX    29.1    (61)
9    67    Nick Boyle    BAL    25.5    (62)

Dropped: Stephen Anderson (30) and some guys in the 50s or later.

Some shifts based on the thoughts I laid out here, though a lot of those thoughts were already incorporated in my rankings (even though I hadn't articulated them as clearly before). I think the biggest change based on that is moving Ebron down; despite his draft pedigree and the hints of promise his chances of becoming a stud TE are not good.

Generally I've moved up guys who have good redraft rankings; redraft rankings were less settled back in May & I wasn't paying as much attention to them then. One reasonable approach to dynasty TEs (which is basically what Mr. Irrelevant advocated) is to devote ~half your efforts to finding a starter for this year, treating it like redraft and going season-to-season, while the other ~half of your efforts are spent going after young high-upside prospects hoping to land the next Gronk/Graham/Gates/etc.

Depth charts are looking clearer in some places, which has led to some reshuffling in the bottom half of the rankings.

First, I appreciate the effort that goes into your rankings and posts.  But that said, how in the world can you rank Eiffert, Tyler Eiffert ahead of Olsen.  I can understand not being high on Olsen, but listing a guy that has had a million surgeries and has no chance to stay healthy for anywhere close to a whole season, IMO, is madness.  Before breaking his foot, Olsen was an iron man and a very trusted target of Newton.  Putting Olsen in tier 5, ranked as 18 TE smacks of personal bias to me.   

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Olsen is almost 34. If you're a contender needing immediate help then you'd probably rather gamble that Olsen can keep it together for another year or two, but unless he ages like Tony Gonzalez then his window is very short. Eifert is a special talent when healthy. If not for all the injury issues, he'd likely be a top 3-4 dynasty TE. So while I can understand the trepidation based on his spotty fitness record, he's already heavily discounted at TE17.

I think it's a case where roster composition might determine who you favor. If I had a good starter locked in, I'd rather gamble on the upside of Eifert. If I needed immediate help, I'd take Olsen and pair him with a prospect like Andrews to hopefully replace him when he falls off.

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48 minutes ago, JackReacher said:

Would take Mahomes over Mariota without second thought 

Pretty sure I've had that exact trade offered to me (I have Mahomes) and turned it down.

I would give Mahomes a bump on this list. I have him in a lot of leagues and I'm excited about the potential. IIRC the Chiefs traded up to get him and then they were pretty quick to jettison Smith after having a look at Mahomes in practice/games last season. That's encouraging. Then you look at the weapons and the play style. Big arm throwing to Hill, Watkins, and Kelce. Sounds good to me. 

As a multi-league Mahomes owner, I would not trade him for: Brady, Dak, Cousins, Darnold, Goff, Winston, or Mariota. I think these QB rankings show a little too much respect for NFL draft position with some guys who haven't really flashed special potential in the NFL. QB is kind of a unique position and sometimes guys who look pedestrian all of a sudden wake up and take the next step (Brees is a good example, and even Brady wasn't sensational in FF right out of the gate). Even with that being the case, I've just not seen anything from Cousins, Winston, or Mariota that makes me think I'm looking at anything more than a fringe QB1 type ala Ryan/Stafford/Eli/Cutler. Rather gamble on the unknown. It's closer with Darnold and Goff, but my sense is that Mahomes has a higher ceiling than either. Not a Dak believer and Brady is just so old.

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