Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
ZWK

ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (WR updated Oct 2020)

Recommended Posts

Tyrell Williams - Good catch, JWB. I missed him when I was adding people this preseason. He should be in there at WR77 or so.

Justin Blackmon - I'd guess he has a 5-10% chance of eventually getting things together, coming back, and having a top 20 WR season. Maybe worth rostering for years just for that chance; it depends on things like roster size.

Nelson Agholor - He's a first rounder who had a bad rookie season. See also: Michael Floyd, Demaryius Thomas, Roddy White, Reggie Wayne, and Plaxico Burress (along with plenty of guys who actually were busts).

Chris Conley - I have him rated roughly where I did right after he was drafted. Third rounder, not that great a prospect coming in. Playing with Alex Smith is a bad situation for a deep threat WR.

Sammy Watkins vs. Mike Evans - Watkins had a top 10 fantasy season in 2015, with excellent efficiency stats, and he looked good doing it. It wasn't at the level of Beckham's 2014, but it was basically what we'd want to see from him. (In case you don't like pro-rating, over his last 16 games Watkins has 74/1334/10 receiving.) With Evans we're still hoping that he puts it all together and stops having ugly games like the one last year against the Giants.

Phillip Dorsett - First round receiver playing with Andrew Luck. Now seems to be earning significant playing time. There is a lot to like there. I'm not sure how someone could be excited by Moncrief and not be excited by Dorsett too.

Stefon Diggs - He had a "good for a rookie 5th rounder" season, but not the kind of season that makes me think that he's likely to become his team's go-to wide receiver or someone with a lot of fantasy value. Part of the concern is how little he produced after the first 4 games (305 yards in 9 games). I'd much rather have the first rounder playing with Luck, the more electric (and more promising as a prospect) Lockett, or the guy who already has a 1000-yard season in Hurns.

Brandon Marshall vs. Larry Fitzgerald - Marshall is a 2nd rounder in redraft, Fitz is going a few rounds later. That makes a huge difference for these guys, since you're basically buying about 2 years of that level of production.

Martavis Bryant - Through 21 career games, he has averaged 1038 yards and 11.4 TDs per 16 games. His per snap stats are much more impressive than that. A lot like Josh Gordon in that there's basically no cap on his upside if he can make it onto the field (though Gordon has demonstrated more on the field, and found his way back onto the field this season). Bryant's WR32 slot already includes a large downgrade for suspension risk.

Michael Floyd & Tyler Lockett - These are interesting cases; I'll try to write some more about them in a bit. I am thinking now that Floyd should be a few spots higher.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

More on Lockett, and an argument with myself on Floyd:

Tyler Lockett: I tend to be relatively conservative about moving young WRs up based on what they've flashed in the NFL. There are a lot of receivers who flash skills as a rookie, and only a few of them turn into stars. People don't seem to be very good at distinguishing Allen Robinsons from Cordarelle Pattersons.

Good performance over a small number of plays doesn't necessarily translate into sustained success. Impressive performance at some aspects of the WR role doesn't necessarily translate into becoming a top WR who is a master of the whole craft. Success in a complementary role doesn't necessarily translate into success as the offense's primary option when the defense has game-planned around you. So I don't move young receivers with moderate statlines as far as some people do from where I rate them as prospects coming into the league.

Michael Floyd: My point about Lockett covers some of this. We can't really know if he "was set to break out" if he'd been healthy a year ago, and flashing for a 7-game stretch in a fantasy WR3 season is not a dealmaker. But there are a bunch of interesting points on both sides with Floyd, let me go into some more depth in debate format.

Pessimistic Case: He has been in the league for four years and hasn't been better than a fantasy WR3. He was his team's third-most productive receiver last year. If he's going to be a star, wouldn't we have seen more by now?

Optimistic Reply: He is a talented receiver with a first round pedigree, and the size/athleticism to match. He is part of a stacked receiving core so the ball gets spread around and he doesn't put up huge totals. Last season he started the year with dislocated fingers, and then went on a huge seven-game stretch midseason. And there have been previous elite receivers who had a fifth year breakout after having only pretty good numbers for their first 3 years, at least in terms of yardage - Jeremy Maclin (though he had 10 TDs his 2nd year), Hines Ward (though he somehow made the Pro Bowl his 4th year), even sort of Terrell Owens (though he was a fantasy stud his 3rd year with 14 TDs).

Pessimistic Reply: His talent is part of what's in question; plenty of "first round talents" aren't so good against NFL competition. I'm concerned about cherry picking one hot stretch - 7 games out of his 66-game career. He did have that nice 7 game stretch in weeks 8-16, but then Floyd totaled 79 yards over his last 3 games (wk17 & 2 playoff games). And it's a lot easier to look good on a high-flying offense like last year's Cardinals, with 35-year-old Carson Palmer having a career year and the defensive secondary spread thin. Each of the receivers had some good games. Palmer is due for some regression this year, and we don't know who Floyd's quarterback will be a couple years from now (but he'll probably be worse than Palmer 2015).

Optimistic Reply: A prototypical WR like Floyd has a better chance succeeding with average or mediocre quarterbacking than a small speedy guy like Brown. Arizona 2015 might have been a great situation for efficiency stats (and Floyd's efficiency stats were great, e.g. 8th among WRs in receiving DVOA), but it was not so good for volume stats. Floyd does seem good enough to attract more targets once he's no longer playing alongside Fitz & Brown, and that sort of change does typically lead to increased fantasy production (despite attracting more defensive attention).

Pessimistic Reply: It's not that clear that Floyd would attract a bunch more targets. In 2013 the Cardinals' third receiver was Andre Roberts and Floyd (in his second year) still only had 113 targets in 16 games and fantasy WR3 production. In 2014 John Brown was just a rookie out of Pittsburg State and Floyd managed only 99 targets (3 less than Brown, even though Brown played 2/3 as many snaps). Interestingly, in 2015 John Brown seemingly moved ahead of Floyd in the pecking order, playing more snaps than Floyd all season along and widening the target gap to 12.

Jumping out of the debate format - I think that there are strong points on both sides. I think I've been correct in dropping Floyd a bit from the WR30 slot where I had him after his rookie year when I started these rankings (since he is now less likely to turn out to be elite), but he does still have more upside than I was giving him credit for so he should be a few spots higher than WR43 where I had him a few days ago.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Preseason running back rankings. Assuming 0.5 ppr, start 2 RB, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/16. Prev from 5/16/16.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    Todd Gurley    RAM    22.1    (2)
2    2    LeVeon Bell    PIT    24.5    (1)
2    3    Ezekiel Elliott    DAL    21.1    (3)
2    4    David Johnson    ARI    24.7    (4)
4    5    Lamar Miller    HOU    25.4    (6)
4    6    Devonta Freeman    ATL    24.5    (5)
4    7    Mark Ingram    NO    26.7    (7)
4    8    Eddie Lacy    GB    26.3    (9)
5    9    Derrick Henry    TEN    22.1    (13)
5    10    Jamaal Charles    KC    29.7    (8)
5    11    LeSean McCoy    BUF    28.1    (11)
5    12    Doug Martin    TB    27.6    (10)
5    13    Jeremy Hill    CIN    23.9    (12)
5    14    Carlos Hyde    SF    25.0    (14)
5    15    Thomas Rawls    SEA    23.1    (16)
5    16    Adrian Peterson    MIN    31.4    (17)
5    17    Giovani Bernard    CIN    24.8    (18)
5    18    Ameer Abdullah    DET    23.2    (15)
5    19    T.J. Yeldon    JAX    22.9    (20)
5    20    Melvin Gordon    SD    23.4    (21)
6    21    C.J. Anderson    DEN    25.6    (22)
6    22    Duke Johnson    CLE    22.9    (28)
6    23    Latavius Murray    OAK    25.5    (24)
6    24    Jerick McKinnon    MIN    24.3    (33)
6    25    Jeremy Langford    CHI    24.7    (26)
6    26    Christine Michael    SEA    25.8    (55)
6    27    Dion Lewis    NE    25.9    (19)
6    28    Matt Jones    WAS    23.5    (25)
6    29    Matt Forte    NYJ    30.7    (27)
6    30    Tevin Coleman    ATL    23.4    (40)
6    31    Jay Ajayi    MIA    23.2    (30)
7    32    Jonathan Stewart    CAR    29.4    (29)
7    33    Ryan Mathews    PHI    28.9    (32)
7    34    Karlos Williams    FA    23.3    (23)
7    35    Arian Foster    MIA    30.0    (35)
7    37    Kenyan Drake    MIA    22.6    (31)
7    36    Kenneth Dixon    BAL    22.6    (41)
7    38    DeMarco Murray    TEN    28.5    (38)
7    39    Spencer Ware    KC    24.8    (56)
7    40    Charles Sims    TB    26.0    (34)
7    41    C.J. Prosise    SEA    22.3    (39)
7    42    Isaiah Crowell    CLE    23.6    (46)
8    43    Frank Gore    IND    33.3    (43)
8    44    Danny Woodhead    SD    31.7    (42)
8    45    Paul Perkins    NYG    21.8    (44)
8    46    Devontae Booker    DEN    24.3    (45)
8    47    Rashad Jennings    NYG    31.4    (48)
8    48    DeAndre Washington    OAK    23.5    (69)
8    49    Chris Ivory    JAX    28.4    (49)
8    50    Bilal Powell    NYJ    27.8    (50)
8    51    Andre Ellington    ARI    27.6    (37)
8    52    James White    NE    24.6    (52)
8    53    DeAngelo Williams    PIT    33.4    (57)
8    54    Justin Forsett    BAL    30.9    (36)
8    55    Terrance West    BAL    25.6    unr
8    56    LeGarrette Blount    NE    29.7    (54)
8    57    Theo Riddick    DET    25.3    (62)
8    58    Jordan Howard    CHI    21.8    (47)
8    59    Darren Sproles    PHI    33.2    (84)
8    60    C.J. Spiller    NO    29.1    (59)
9    61    Javorius Allen    BAL    25.0    (61)
9    62    Jonathan Williams    BUF    22.6    (64)
9    63    Tyler Ervin    HOU    22.9    (65)
9    64    Shane Vereen    NYG    27.5    (63)
9    65    Malcolm Brown    RAM    23.3    unr
9    66    Ronnie Hillman    DEN    25.0    (51)
9    67    Alex Collins    SEA    22.0    (60)
9    68    Zach Zenner    DET    25.0    (68)
9    69    Wendell Smallwood    PHI    22.6    (86)
9    70    Alfred Morris    DAL    27.7    (53)
9    71    Charcandrick West    KC    25.3    (58)
9    72    Khiry Robinson    NYJ    26.7    (66)
9    73    Rob Kelley    WAS    23.9    unr
9    74    Darren McFadden    DAL    29.0    (81)
10    75    Cameron Artis-Payne    CAR    26.2    (76)
10    76    Mike Davis    SF    23.5    unr
10    77    Keith Marshall    WAS    22.5    (73)
10    78    Denard Robinson    JAX    25.9    (67)
10    79    James Starks    GB    30.5    (74)
10    80    Andre Williams    NYG    24.0    unr
10    81    Chris Johnson    ARI    30.9    (75)
10    82    Daniel Lasco    NO    23.9    (70)
10    83    Mike Gillislee    BUF    25.8    unr
10    84    Trent Richardson    BAL    26.1    (71)
10    85    Darius Jackson    DAL    22.8    (72)
10    86    Dwayne Washington    DET    22.4    unr
10    87    Alfred Blue    HOU    25.3    (77)
10    88    David Cobb    TEN    23.2    (78)
10    89    Benny Cunningham    RAM    26.2    (82)
10    90    Tim Hightower    NO    30.3    unr
10    91    Shaun Draughn    KC    28.7    unr
10    92    Terrell Watson    CLE    23.0    unr
10    93    Josh Ferguson    IND    23.3    unr
10    94    Bishop Sankey    TEN    24.0    (83)
10    95    Travaris Cadet    NO    27.6    (85)
10    96    Robert Turbin    IND    26.7    (88)
10    97    Lorenzo Taliaferro    BAL    24.7    (79)
10    98    Tre Mason    RAM    23.1    (87)
10    99    KaDeem Carey    CHI    23.8    unr
10    100    Stevan Ridley    IND    27.6    (80)

Le'Veon Bell has dropped a spot and a tier since his suspension news came out, but he's still at #2 because 1) he has still never failed an NFL drug test and 2) he is still in stage 2 of the substance abuse program. See Adam Harstad for more on why that matters (shorter nonsubscriber's version).

Doug Martin vs. LeSean McCoy is a close call.

My tier 5 (RB9-20) has a lot of players but the guys at the bottom of the tier still seem relatively close to the guys at the top.

I am higher than most on Jerick McKinnon, Christine Michael, and Karlos Williams. For young(ish) RBs I pay a lot of attention to talent, and to who has the potential to become a strong starter for several years. These 3 have that potential, with McKinnon & Michael having elite athleticism and generally looking good with their limited touches (including this preseason) and Williams producing at an elite level over a smallish sample size last year. Michael has had problems with the mental side of things, getting to the point where his coaches trust him to be on the field, but he now seems to have matured to the point where he has that trust. The things that I liked about him entering the league are still true, and the negatives that I hadn't expected are now greatly diminished, so my view on him is approaching where it was at the start (though he does have some lingering negatives). Karlos Williams's problems (with conditioning, etc.) are still in his present, so he's a tier back of the other two.

Arian Foster is ranked exactly where I had him in May, 2 months before he signed with Miami (RB35). That might be a sign that I was too high on him in May. At the time I was thinking that he had a chance of returning to his 2014 form & role, but so far this preseason has been more like 2015 (much better as a receiver than as a runner) and with more of a timeshare.

Tier 9 guys seem only borderline rosterable, though I guess they should all be rostered by someone.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Possibly I am blind, but I think you are missing Tyler Gaffney. Someone inexplicably dropped Blount in one of my leagues during final cuts, but still I am pretty sure I will be looking to add Gaffney over him during BB waivers. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Quote

7    37    Kenyan Drake    MIA    22.6    (31)
7    36    Kenneth Dixon    BAL    22.6    (41)
7    41    C.J. Prosise    SEA    22.3    (39)

People are dumping on Drake. He is being labeled a special teams player at this point. There's a lot of confirmation bias that because he already has had an injury during camp and they signed an old dude to take any role he might have, that he is what the post-draft naysayers thought he would be. His value is closer to Tyler Ervin at this point. Do you believe or are you hanging on to last threads of draft pedigree? I had a couple drafts right after the Foster signing where I took him in the late 2nd because he seemed like an okay value as last of the tier. But his real world value has only dropped, at least until Foster gets hurt again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On ‎8‎/‎29‎/‎2016 at 2:02 AM, ZWK said:

More on Lockett, and an argument with myself on Floyd:

Tyler Lockett: I tend to be relatively conservative about moving young WRs up based on what they've flashed in the NFL. There are a lot of receivers who flash skills as a rookie, and only a few of them turn into stars. People don't seem to be very good at distinguishing Allen Robinsons from Cordarelle Pattersons.

Good performance over a small number of plays doesn't necessarily translate into sustained success. Impressive performance at some aspects of the WR role doesn't necessarily translate into becoming a top WR who is a master of the whole craft. Success in a complementary role doesn't necessarily translate into success as the offense's primary option when the defense has game-planned around you. So I don't move young receivers with moderate statlines as far as some people do from where I rate them as prospects coming into the league.

Michael Floyd: My point about Lockett covers some of this. We can't really know if he "was set to break out" if he'd been healthy a year ago, and flashing for a 7-game stretch in a fantasy WR3 season is not a dealmaker. But there are a bunch of interesting points on both sides with Floyd, let me go into some more depth in debate format.

Pessimistic Case: He has been in the league for four years and hasn't been better than a fantasy WR3. He was his team's third-most productive receiver last year. If he's going to be a star, wouldn't we have seen more by now?

Optimistic Reply: He is a talented receiver with a first round pedigree, and the size/athleticism to match. He is part of a stacked receiving core so the ball gets spread around and he doesn't put up huge totals. Last season he started the year with dislocated fingers, and then went on a huge seven-game stretch midseason. And there have been previous elite receivers who had a fifth year breakout after having only pretty good numbers for their first 3 years, at least in terms of yardage - Jeremy Maclin (though he had 10 TDs his 2nd year), Hines Ward (though he somehow made the Pro Bowl his 4th year), even sort of Terrell Owens (though he was a fantasy stud his 3rd year with 14 TDs).

Pessimistic Reply: His talent is part of what's in question; plenty of "first round talents" aren't so good against NFL competition. I'm concerned about cherry picking one hot stretch - 7 games out of his 66-game career. He did have that nice 7 game stretch in weeks 8-16, but then Floyd totaled 79 yards over his last 3 games (wk17 & 2 playoff games). And it's a lot easier to look good on a high-flying offense like last year's Cardinals, with 35-year-old Carson Palmer having a career year and the defensive secondary spread thin. Each of the receivers had some good games. Palmer is due for some regression this year, and we don't know who Floyd's quarterback will be a couple years from now (but he'll probably be worse than Palmer 2015).

Optimistic Reply: A prototypical WR like Floyd has a better chance succeeding with average or mediocre quarterbacking than a small speedy guy like Brown. Arizona 2015 might have been a great situation for efficiency stats (and Floyd's efficiency stats were great, e.g. 8th among WRs in receiving DVOA), but it was not so good for volume stats. Floyd does seem good enough to attract more targets once he's no longer playing alongside Fitz & Brown, and that sort of change does typically lead to increased fantasy production (despite attracting more defensive attention).

Pessimistic Reply: It's not that clear that Floyd would attract a bunch more targets. In 2013 the Cardinals' third receiver was Andre Roberts and Floyd (in his second year) still only had 113 targets in 16 games and fantasy WR3 production. In 2014 John Brown was just a rookie out of Pittsburg State and Floyd managed only 99 targets (3 less than Brown, even though Brown played 2/3 as many snaps). Interestingly, in 2015 John Brown seemingly moved ahead of Floyd in the pecking order, playing more snaps than Floyd all season along and widening the target gap to 12.

Jumping out of the debate format - I think that there are strong points on both sides. I think I've been correct in dropping Floyd a bit from the WR30 slot where I had him after his rookie year when I started these rankings (since he is now less likely to turn out to be elite), but he does still have more upside than I was giving him credit for so he should be a few spots higher than WR43 where I had him a few days ago.

 

Quote

 

Cardinals coach Bruce Arians said Monday that John Brown is still experiencing headaches.

Arians did insist Brown is "making progress," and that Smokey has been headache free for two days. Brown's recovery has still been alarmingly slow from an early-camp concussion. The Cardinals have not yet given any indication that Brown's reoccurring headaches could keep him out of Week 1.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8/29/2016 at 8:38 PM, ItsOnlytheRiver said:

Possibly I am blind, but I think you are missing Tyler Gaffney. Someone inexplicably dropped Blount in one of my leagues during final cuts, but still I am pretty sure I will be looking to add Gaffney over him during BB waivers. 

I missed the news on Gaffney. I guess put him on tier 9, RB70 or so.

18 hours ago, thriftyrocker said:

People are dumping on Drake. He is being labeled a special teams player at this point. There's a lot of confirmation bias that because he already has had an injury during camp and they signed an old dude to take any role he might have, that he is what the post-draft naysayers thought he would be. His value is closer to Tyler Ervin at this point. Do you believe or are you hanging on to last threads of draft pedigree? I had a couple drafts right after the Foster signing where I took him in the late 2nd because he seemed like an okay value as last of the tier. But his real world value has only dropped, at least until Foster gets hurt again.

I think you're right that I didn't downgrade Drake enough. Offseason injuries generally aren't that strong an indicator of problems, but they are more concerning for guys with Drake's history of injuries and limited workload. He should be down a tier, near Perkins & Booker.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Preseason tight end rankings. Assuming 0.5 PPR, 12 TE starters, and about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/16. Prev from 5/20/16.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    Rob Gronkowski    NE    27.3    (1)
2    2    Jordan Reed    WAS    26.2    (2)
2    3    Tyler Eifert    CIN    26.0    (4)
2    4    Travis Kelce    KC    26.9    (3)
3    5    Zach Ertz    PHI    25.8    (5)
3    6    Eric Ebron    DET    23.4    (7)
3    7    Greg Olsen    CAR    31.5    (6)
3    8    Coby Fleener    NO    27.9    (11)
4    9    Austin Seferian-Jenkins    TB    23.9    (9)
4    10    Ladarius Green    PIT    26.3    (8)
4    11    Jimmy Graham    SEA    29.8    (10)
4    12    Hunter Henry    SD    21.7    (13)
4    13    Delanie Walker    TEN    32.1    (14)
4    14    Julius Thomas    JAX    28.2    (15)
4    15    Dwayne Allen    IND    26.5    (16)
4    16    Tyler Higbee    RAM    23.7    (20)
4    17    Gary Barnidge    CLE    30.9    (12)
5    18    Austin Hooper    ATL    21.8    (21)
5    19    Clive Walford    OAK    24.9    (28)
5    20    Maxx Williams    BAL    22.4    (18)
5    21    Jared Cook    GB    29.4    (19)
5    22    Martellus Bennett    NE    29.5    (17)
5    23    Charles Clay    BUF    27.5    (23)
5    24    Jordan Cameron    MIA    28.1    (22)
5    25    Antonio Gates    SD    36.2    (24)
6    26    Jace Amaro    NYJ    24.2    (26)
6    27    Kyle Rudolph    MIN    26.8    (25)
6    28    Will Tye    NYG    24.8    (29)
6    29    Virgil Green    DEN    28.1    (55)
6    30    Vance McDonald    SF    26.2    (39)
6    31    MyCole Pruitt    MIN    24.4    (27)
6    32    Jeff Heuerman    DEN    23.8    (32)
6    33    Jason Witten    DAL    34.3    (30)
6    34    Richard Rodgers    GB    24.6    (31)
6    35    Seth DeValve    CLE    23.6    (33)
6    36    Zach Miller    CHI    31.9    (35)
6    37    Cameron Brate    TB    25.2    (36)
6    38    Gavin Escobar    DAL    25.6    (34)
6    39    Jesse James    PIT    22.2    (53)
7    40    Dennis Pitta    BAL    31.2    (38)
7    41    Troy Niklas    ARI    24.0    (50)
7    42    Ryan Griffin    HOU    26.6    (51)
7    43    Josh Hill    NO    26.3    (37)
7    44    Crockett Gilmore    BAL    24.8    (41)
7    45    Darren Waller    BAL    24.0    (40)
7    46    Garrett Celek    SF    28.3    (42)
7    47    Nick Vannett    SEA    23.5    (43)
7    48    Jacob Tamme    ATL    32.5    (44)
7    49    Niles Paul    WAS    27.1    (45)
8    50    Tyler Kroft    CIN    23.9    unr
8    51    Demetrius Harris    KC    25.1    (54)
8    52    Vernon Davis    FA    32.6    (47)
8    53    Mychal Rivera    OAK    26.0    (48)
8    54    Luke Willson    SEA    26.6    (52)
8    55    Larry Donnell    NYG    27.8    unr
8    56    Derek Carrier    WAS    26.1    (49)

I'm finding tier 4 (TE10-17) the hardest to rank. You could randomly reshuffle that tier and the results would probably still look plausible.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, ZWK said:

 

I'm finding tier 4 (TE10-17) the hardest to rank. You could randomly reshuffle that tier and the results would probably still look plausible.

4    9    Austin Seferian-Jenkins    TB    23.9    (9)
4    10    Ladarius Green    PIT    26.3    (8)
4    11    Jimmy Graham    SEA    29.8    (10)
4    12    Hunter Henry    SD    21.7    (13)
4    13    Delanie Walker    TEN    32.1    (14)
4    14    Julius Thomas    JAX    28.2    (15)
4    15    Dwayne Allen    IND    26.5    (16)
4    16    Tyler Higbee    RAM    23.7    (20)
4    17    Gary Barnidge    CLE    30.9    (12)

For me this isn't that hard 

1 asj - best combination of youth and immediate scoring potential.  The fact he's playing with a quality young qb makes a breakout more valuable than anyone else in this tier.

2 hunter henry - i don't think i've seen anyone project this guy to be a bust.  The main knock on him is that he didn't catch a lot of touchdowns in college, but that was because he was a really good goal line blocker for a run heavy team.  Now he's going to learn from a guy contending for the most tight end touchdowns in nfl history and play with the guy that threw them to him.  

3 delanie walker - gronk, olsen, walker.  That's the top 3 scorers at tight end the last two years.  Walker is the best receiving option for mariotta and is going to face a lot of tired defenders.  The immediate production is just too good.  

Then, at least to me, there's a tier break.  

1. Dwayne allen - meh.  Should be weak starter production for years, but if he doesn't break out this year, the dream is dead.  Better than a lot of other options i guess.

2. Tyler higbee - young te, young qb, no receivers.  Not a bad formula for success.  I normally hate young tight ends but the path to immediate playing time and the near total lack of competition for targets makes a year one or two breakout very possible.  

3. Gary barnidge - if i were certain he would be as good this year as he was last year i would take him at the top of this tier, but the combination of age and risk hurts.  But you don't win leagues because your tight end got you 600 yards and 6 tds, so the upside is worth the risk.

4. Julius thomas - i think a lot of people put him higher but the truth is this guy just isn't that good.  Playing with manning made him look like a legitimate tight end.  Bortles is good enough to make him serviceable each year but he's in his prime, played 12 healthy games with bortles during a year where bortles was chucking it a ton, and he ended with 450/5 which is pace for 600 and 6.  Yuck.

5. Ladarius green - the good news is tgar he looked good in flashes, plays with a top qb, and is still relatively young.  The bad news is he's going to start the season on the pup list with an ankle and/or concussion headaches, he moved from a very tight end friendly offense to a wr heavy offense that got consistently ok production from heath miller, and while he's young, he could retire at any time.  So you get to clog your roster waiting to find out if he's any good, hoping he plays this year and doesn't retire, and if he does eventually play well you'll still have a hard time getting full exit value the way jordan reed owners do.  One caveat - this is a great guy to target if you're selling off veterans for a total rebuild and can wait for the breakout.  

Another tier or more down

Jimmy graham - even if he weren't coming back from a brutal injury, i wouldn't be that interested.  He was the beneficiary of brees liking big targets.  I think he can play again, but it's a steep uphill climb to ever being good.

 

I also think you are too low on martellus bennett, vance mcdonald, clive walford and kyle rudolph, but otherwise love this as always 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, bostonfred said:

4    9    Austin Seferian-Jenkins    TB    23.9    (9)
4    10    Ladarius Green    PIT    26.3    (8)
4    11    Jimmy Graham    SEA    29.8    (10)
4    12    Hunter Henry    SD    21.7    (13)
4    13    Delanie Walker    TEN    32.1    (14)
4    14    Julius Thomas    JAX    28.2    (15)
4    15    Dwayne Allen    IND    26.5    (16)
4    16    Tyler Higbee    RAM    23.7    (20)
4    17    Gary Barnidge    CLE    30.9    (12)

For me this isn't that hard 

1 asj - best combination of youth and immediate scoring potential.  The fact he's playing with a quality young qb makes a breakout more valuable than anyone else in this tier.

2 hunter henry - i don't think i've seen anyone project this guy to be a bust.  The main knock on him is that he didn't catch a lot of touchdowns in college, but that was because he was a really good goal line blocker for a run heavy team.  Now he's going to learn from a guy contending for the most tight end touchdowns in nfl history and play with the guy that threw them to him.  

3 delanie walker - gronk, olsen, walker.  That's the top 3 scorers at tight end the last two years.  Walker is the best receiving option for mariotta and is going to face a lot of tired defenders.  The immediate production is just too good.  

Then, at least to me, there's a tier break.  

1. Dwayne allen - meh.  Should be weak starter production for years, but if he doesn't break out this year, the dream is dead.  Better than a lot of other options i guess.

2. Tyler higbee - young te, young qb, no receivers.  Not a bad formula for success.  I normally hate young tight ends but the path to immediate playing time and the near total lack of competition for targets makes a year one or two breakout very possible.  

3. Gary barnidge - if i were certain he would be as good this year as he was last year i would take him at the top of this tier, but the combination of age and risk hurts.  But you don't win leagues because your tight end got you 600 yards and 6 tds, so the upside is worth the risk.

4. Julius thomas - i think a lot of people put him higher but the truth is this guy just isn't that good.  Playing with manning made him look like a legitimate tight end.  Bortles is good enough to make him serviceable each year but he's in his prime, played 12 healthy games with bortles during a year where bortles was chucking it a ton, and he ended with 450/5 which is pace for 600 and 6.  Yuck.

5. Ladarius green - the good news is tgar he looked good in flashes, plays with a top qb, and is still relatively young.  The bad news is he's going to start the season on the pup list with an ankle and/or concussion headaches, he moved from a very tight end friendly offense to a wr heavy offense that got consistently ok production from heath miller, and while he's young, he could retire at any time.  So you get to clog your roster waiting to find out if he's any good, hoping he plays this year and doesn't retire, and if he does eventually play well you'll still have a hard time getting full exit value the way jordan reed owners do.  One caveat - this is a great guy to target if you're selling off veterans for a total rebuild and can wait for the breakout.  

Another tier or more down

Jimmy graham - even if he weren't coming back from a brutal injury, i wouldn't be that interested.  He was the beneficiary of brees liking big targets.  I think he can play again, but it's a steep uphill climb to ever being good.

 

I also think you are too low on martellus bennett, vance mcdonald, clive walford and kyle rudolph, but otherwise love this as always

ASJ, Green, and Graham would all be ahead of this tier if not for recent troubles with injuries or (in ASJ's case) with their coach/mentality/role. The question is how serious those troubles are and how far to drop them. Then there's the rookies -- Higbee a 4th rounder who has the athleticism and had a nice offseason, Henry who has the reputation & draft pedigree but with mediocre athleticism and perhaps limited upside. Allen who is in this tier thanks to his quarterback rather than his own skills. Barnidge & Walker who are getting up there in years and have only a short track record of success (where their success has probably at least in part due to their team's lack of good or reliable WRs).

For the others: Rudolph has been in the league 5 years, has never topped 500 yards, and only has a season and a half of borderline fantasy relevance (which came in 2012-13). I'm not particularly excited about McDonald or Walford as players - the main thing to like about them is that they seem to have won their teams' starting jobs. Bennett is now his team's TE2, and I don't think we're going to see a repeat of the Patriots' 2011 offenses where 67% of the targets went to Welker, Gronk, and Hernandez.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 5/24/2016 at 2:51 PM, ZWK said:

(like at QB) I'm mostly betting on upside once we get past the top few TEs.

 

On 8/29/2016 at 0:02 AM, ZWK said:

I tend to be relatively conservative about moving young WRs up based on what they've flashed in the NFL.

 

Interesting contrast here. @ZWK, this is a purposeful distinction between QB/TE and WR? At what point do you switch to upside in your WR rankings?

Edited by Just Win Baby

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Two big differences, @Just Win Baby:

1. In one case I'm talking about where I rank players, in the other I'm talking about how I change their rankings. Things like athleticism and draft pedigree are strong indicators of upside, which factor into my rankings from the start. Guys like Corey Coleman already flashed a bunch in college (and at the combine and in the draft), so I already have lots of evidence of his upside and ranked him accordingly. A few good games like Diggs had are less strong evidence of upside, so they don't earn a player as high a ranking.

2. A typical league starts 12 TEs (or QBs) and 36 WRs, which makes upside much more important for TEs. Solid WRs are worth a lot more than solid TEs, and there are lot more WRs who will wind up being worth more than a baselineish amount. Jason Witten, over the past 5 years, has been worth about as much as Torrey Smith or Crabtree (WR36ish), whereas Gronk is up there among the 5 WRs (Marshall, Julio, etc.). Moving up the TE rankings past a solid guy who will play like Jason Witten 2011-15 over the next 5 years should be as easy as moving up the WR rankings past a solid WR who is about to have 5 years like Torrey Smith 2011-15. In other words, it's harder to climb up the WR rankings because there are more WRs with reasonably high expected VBD. So a guy who has flashed upside but might be totally worthless (like Ladarius Green or Martavis Bryant) has more value relative to TEs than relative to WRs.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jared Cook is getting no love from anyone...He will be the 2nd highest(if not the highest) scoring TE this year behind gronk. Perfect offense for his skills and a legit QB throwing to him. will be a beast in the red zone.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, ffinmyblood said:

Jared Cook is getting no love from anyone...He will be the 2nd highest(if not the highest) scoring TE this year behind gronk. Perfect offense for his skills and a legit QB throwing to him. will be a beast in the red zone.

Dropping easy catches? Running the wrong routes? Giving up on plays? What skills are you referring to?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Jared Cook yeah I'm a biased Ram fan but I love this breakdown of the last years Rams offense

Cook begins at 9:45 "The number of drives that Jared cook has killed all by himself with dropped balls is staggering."  .... and for the love of god stop throwing if to Cook on 3rd down"

The Film Room Ep 11: Todd Gurley and Tavon Austin vs the Steelers, Cardinals, & Packers

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a2w-SULm2B8

Rodgers is easily the best QB hes played with but if it hits you in the hands it doesn't matter who threw it Cook=bad. my opinion is biased

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, ffinmyblood said:

Jared Cook is getting no love from anyone...He will be the 2nd highest(if not the highest) scoring TE this year behind gronk. Perfect offense for his skills and a legit QB throwing to him. will be a beast in the red zone.

I bumped Cook a lot when he came to GB. I think he has a reasonable shot at being a strong TE1 this season. But he's very situation-dependent and on a one-year deal. Maybe there's a 50% chance of things clicking in GB and him putting up a good year, and then if he does that he has a 50% chance of re-signing and putting up 3 more good years. That's only 1.25 good years in expectation. I'd rather take a shot on a rookie like Hooper who could become Matt Ryan's #2 target (as Jacob Tamme was last year), or a vet with a tighter hold on his job like Gary Barnidge.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Preseason quarterback rankings. Assuming 12 QB starters and about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/16. Prev from 5/17/16.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    Cam Newton    CAR    27.3    (1)
1    2    Aaron Rodgers    GB    32.8    (2)
1    3    Russell Wilson    SEA    27.8    (3)
1    4    Andrew Luck    IND    27.0    (4)
3    5    Marcus Mariota    TEN    22.8    (5)
3    6    Jameis Winston    TB    22.7    (6)
4    7    Ben Roethlisberger    PIT    34.5    (7)
4    8    Tyrod Taylor    BUF    27.1    (11)
4    9    Andy Dalton    CIN    28.8    (15)
4    10    Blake Bortles    JAX    24.7    (12)
4    11    Derek Carr    OAK    25.4    (10)
4    12    Jared Goff    RAM    21.9    (9)
4    13    Tom Brady    NE    39.1    (13)
4    14    Carson Wentz    PHI    23.7    (14)
5    15    Matt Ryan    ATL    31.3    (8)
5    16    Drew Brees    NO    37.6    (18)
5    17    Matthew Stafford    DET    28.6    (23)
5    18    Kirk Cousins    WAS    28.0    (24)
5    19    Teddy Bridgewater    MIN    23.8    (17)
5    20    Dak Prescott    DAL    23.1    unr
5    21    Carson Palmer    ARI    36.7    (16)
5    22    Ryan Tannehill    MIA    28.1    (19)
5    23    Paxton Lynch    DEN    22.6    (20)
5    24    Robert Griffin III    CLE    26.5    (25)
5    25    Philip Rivers    SD    34.7    (22)
5    26    Jimmy Garoppolo    NE    24.8    (34)
5    27    Eli Manning    NYG    35.7    (26)
6    28    Sam Bradford    MIN    28.8    (33)
6    29    Brock Osweiler    HOU    25.8    (28)
6    30    Trevor Siemian    DEN    24.7    unr
6    31    Blaine Gabbert    SF    26.9    (35)
6    32    Tony Romo    DAL    36.4    (27)
6    33    Alex Smith    KC    34.4    (29)
6    34    Jay Cutler    CHI    33.3    (30)
6    35    Colin Kaepernick    SF    28.8    (21)
7    36    Bryce Petty    NYJ    25.3    (40)
7    37    Ryan Fitzpatrick    NYJ    33.8    (31)
7    38    Joe Flacco    BAL    31.6    (32)
7    39    Geno Smith    NYJ    25.9    (36)
8    40    Christian Hackenberg    NYJ    21.5    (37)
8    41    Johnny Manziel    CLE    23.7    (38)
8    42    Cody Kessler    CLE    23.3    (39)
8    43    A.J. McCarron    CIN    26.0    (42)
8    44    Chase Daniel    PHI    29.9    (41)
8    45    Brett Hundley    GB    23.2    (44)
8    46    Garrett Grayson    NO    25.3    (45)
8    47    Jacoby Brissett    NE    23.7    (46)
8    48    Case Keenum    RAM    28.5    unr
8    49    Shaun Hill    MIN    36.6    unr

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mariotta and winston in their own tier 3 seems odd to me.  I would merge them all with tier 4.  I would also move tyrod down a tier, because he's the only one in that group i can see getting replaced next off season.  Personally i would move goff and wentz down too because if you offered me goff for any of those guys it would be an easy no.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree with Fred in regards to Goff and Wentz. I wouldn't trade most of the tier 5 QB for these guys, so they would be in tier 5 for me. I would still rank them higher than Dak Prescott, Lynch, Garappolo.

Edited by Biabreakable

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A few QB missing. I know the end of bench QB are kind of a worthless proposition but weird some guys are listed but other guys aren't.

Thinking NR on Cardale is an oversight. He is behind Tyrod for the foreseeable but a lot of guys listed are buried. 

I'd also rank Foles somewhere as his contract with KC is essentially "show me you're better than Alex Smith" with a huge 2nd year team option. Worth a roster spot in some leagues. Getting a decision point on him at the end of the year is a positive as you don't have to hold and hope like Brissett or Hundley types.

A guy I think increased in value as a project QB is Tom Savage. He was rumored when Minnesota was looking. Beat out Weeden to be the backup. O'Brien drafted him and developed him. Would definitely add in Superflex.

Boykin played well enough for SEA not to bring in a veteran backup and would put up enough rushing to be startable.

Stanton has a verbal contract to be the ARI starter after Palmer, which is worth about the same as most verbal contracts, but is something compared to most 3rd stringers.

Could see adding Glennon or Nassib given they are FA in 2017 and could be bridge starters next year.

The spread from Brady/Brees/Palmer is interesting to me. They are similar guys with different degrees of HOF eligibility and all-time-ness. FFC has Brees as QB5 in redraft, Brady as QB7 and Palmer as QB8. I think Brees is too low in your rankings given he should be great this year (if Brady is tier 4 so should Brees), and Palmer is too high but just my opinion on him this year after a dumpy preseason (if Brees is tier 5, Palmer isn't).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I understand why you do it this way but I'd prefer to see 5 (and 6) split into 5a/5b depending on what the team wanted vet / prospect.  For the first few tiers that's not a big issue, although Ben would be 4a perhaps by himself. 

Also, Brady, Goff and Wentz should be tier 5. Huge drop imo from the others in tier 4 to those 3. I'd probably take Brees over Brady today. 

Edited by FUBAR

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, bostonfred said:

Mariotta and winston in their own tier 3 seems odd to me.  I would merge them all with tier 4.  

Disagree.  Tiers should mean a reasonable person could trade anyone in that tier for another, even if you like one qb more than the other (meaning, it would be reasonable for one team to trade carr for Dalton even if I think that's a bad deal) but I just can't see anyone trading Dalton or TT for MM or Winston without others wondering WTF. (I'd also have carr and Bortles ahead of the others in tier 4 but :shrug:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I understand its difficult to mix old veterans with the promise of youth in rankings.  

 

IMO Eli Manning is in the perfect offense for him.  He's finished 7th and 8th among QBs the last two seasons respectively, and the first one of those was working in Beckham as a rookie.  Guess I just think he's a really strong bet for another 3+ years of 4400-5000 yards and 30-35 TDs.  Wouldn't surprise me a bit if Eli put up career numbers this year.  I think you can pretty much plug in Philip Rivers for the same stats too.  

 

After Cam, Wilson, Rodgers, Luck and Brady, I'm not sure that I'd have a major preference with anybody over Manning and Rivers.  (at least for the next 3 seasons).  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I like dalton better than either, but I'm not talking about my rankings.  I understand i'm one of the few people who's been beating the dalton drum for years and we can discuss that another time

I think a reasonable person might prefer bortles to mariotta or mariotta to winston or winston to carr or carr to all of them.  I don't see a tier break where winston and mariotta belong ahead of bortles or carr.  If anything i prefer bortles and carr.  It sounds like you're on board.

I honestly don't see a lot of qb for qb trades.  Everyone has guys they like and people tend to like guys they have.  If i had winston and traded him for dalton i would probably ask for more because i understand the market values, but i think it's fairly even.  If someone traded carr for tyrod taylor, though, i would think it's a ripoff.  I see the upside of taylor but he also might not be the bills starter next year.  He signed a contract extension that gives the bills the right to cut him after this year with no cap hit.  That, plus the possibility of rex playing for his job, too, makes tyrod a much riskier option than the other guys in that tier, and that is a lot different than debating how good dalton is or how many years brady and roethlisberger have left.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, bostonfred said:

I see the upside of taylor but he also might not be the bills starter next year.  He signed a contract extension that gives the bills the right to cut him after this year with no cap hit.  That, plus the possibility of rex playing for his job, too, makes tyrod a much riskier option than the other guys in that tier, and that is a lot different than debating how good dalton is or how many years brady and roethlisberger have left.

I interpret Taylor's ranking here as showing that @ZWK thinks Taylor will play well. If that is what he expects and bases his ranking on, there is no reason to downgrade his ranking for the risk you address here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Compare:

QB A: 281/434, 3494 yards, 27 TD, 9 INT, 41 sacks, 10 fumbles, 69.9 QBR, with 103/608/3 rushing
QB B: 277/434, 3469 yards, 23 TD, 7 INT, 41 sacks, 10 fumbles, 67.8 QBR, with 119/649/5 rushing

Who are these 2 QBs? One is Russell Wilson, with his career totals pro-rated down to 16 games (from 64). The other is Tyrod Taylor, with his 2015 season pro-rated up to 16 games (from 14).

My QB rankings are heavily influenced by upside, because the top 5 fantasy QBs are where most of the VBD comes from. Taylor is a great runner and put up strong efficiency numbers last year, which makes me think that he's more likely than Dalton or Carr to break into tier 1 or 2 (even though he's also more likely to bust and find himself out of a job).

Similarly, guys who've been in the league a few years and have averageish numbers are not that exciting, while rookies with elite draft pedigree are pretty exciting even if they haven't looked good in their first offseason - the top of the first round is where a large fraction of top QBs come from. After the 2015 draft I got some flak for ranking the rookies Mariota & Winston 5-6, ahead of "safer bets" like Stafford and Tannehill. I don't like Goff & Wentz as much as I liked Mariota & Winston then (so they aren't ranked as high), but the principle is the same.

Eli & Rivers seem like fine options for this year if you miss out on the top 7 (through Brady, Brees, & Ben), but they (and the rest of that pack of 12 or so QBs) are not that likely to be difference-makers this year. They're both around 35 years old, so even in a moderately optimistic case you're just looking at a couple years of slightly above baseline production.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

4333 yards, 33 tds, 9 int, 188 rush yards, 4 rush tds

4296 yards, 33 tds. 20 int, 183 rush yards, 2 rush tds

4381 yards, 38 tds, 5 ints, 269 rush yards, 2 rush tds

That's andy dalton in 2015 prorated, andy dalton in 2013 actual, and aaron rodgers 2014 actual, with a healthy cobb and jordy.and medium sized eddie.  It's not like tyrod is the only guy putting up big numbers.  

When dalton went down last year he was top 5.  In 2013 he was top 5.  In 2014, eifert, gio, aj green, jones and sanu all got hurt.  In the playoffs his leading wide receiver was rex burkhead.  I don't mean the guy with the most catches.  I mean rex burkhead, their number three running back, played wide receiver because they had nobody left.  

The league is littered with running qbs who had a good year then flamed out. From Kordell to Tebow, rg3 to kaepernick, it's easier to find one year wonders than two or three year wonders like culpepper and vick.  Newton and wilson look like outliers compared to the field. 

 

I agree with liking tyrod for a one year shot at top 5 numbers.  But there's a huge risk with a running qb with less than one successful year under his belt, an injury prone wr1 with no real depth at wr or te behind him, a defensive minded head coach fighting for his job and a contract extension they just negotiated to let them cut him after this year with no cap hit.  Much more than there is with a passing qb with multiple top 5 seasons who is signed long term.  And the reward is pretty much the same - a top 5 season.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

4333 yards, 33 tds, 9 int, 188 rush yards, 4 rush tds

4296 yards, 33 tds. 20 int, 183 rush yards, 2 rush tds

4381 yards, 38 tds, 5 ints, 269 rush yards, 2 rush tds

That's andy dalton in 2015 prorated, andy dalton in 2013 actual, and aaron rodgers 2014 actual, with a healthy cobb and jordy.and medium sized eddie.  It's not like tyrod is the only guy putting up big numbers.  

When dalton went down last year he was top 5.  In 2013 he was top 5.  In 2014, eifert, gio, aj green, jones and sanu all got hurt.  In the playoffs his leading wide receiver was rex burkhead.  I don't mean the guy with the most catches.  I mean rex burkhead, their number three running back, played wide receiver because they had nobody left.  

The league is littered with running qbs who had a good year then flamed out. From Kordell to Tebow, rg3 to kaepernick, it's easier to find one year wonders than two or three year wonders like culpepper and vick.  Newton and wilson look like outliers compared to the field. 

 

I agree with liking tyrod for a one year shot at top 5 numbers.  But there's a huge risk with a running qb with less than one successful year under his belt, an injury prone wr1 with no real depth at wr or te behind him, a defensive minded head coach fighting for his job and a contract extension they just negotiated to let them cut him after this year with no cap hit.  Much more than there is with a passing qb with multiple top 5 seasons who is signed long term.  And the reward is pretty much the same - a top 5 season.  

I agree that Dalton has shown a lot of promise. I looked into him more closely this summer and moved him up from QB15 to QB9 based on analysis a lot like this. I do think you're overselling him somewhat - his 2015 was very good by any measure, but his 2013 was averageish on the whole (tons of INTs) and his excuses for 2014 aren't that strong (Green missed only 3 games, Bernard missed only 3 games, the Burkhead game was in the playoffs which aren't included in his 3398 & 19 statline). But it's not unheard of for QBs to develop in their late 20s (Brady did it).

I see your RG3 2012 and point you to Foles 2013 and Stafford 2011. Taylor, Dalton, Palmer, Bortles, and Cousins are all candidates for having 2015 as a career year that they never get close to again. Running QBs do seem to be at higher risk of injuries and shortened careers, but they don't seem more prone to being one year wonders. See this list of every QB season since 1980 with at least 30 rushing yards per game, sorted by passing efficiency.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Over the past 6 years (2010-2015), the top 5 QBs have accounted for 57% of all QB VBD. Not each season's top 5, the 5 individuals with the most cumulative VBD: Rodgers, Brees, Newton, Brady, and Manning.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, ZWK said:

I do think you're overselling him somewhat - his 2015 was very good by any measure, but his 2013 was averageish on the whole (tons of INTs) and his excuses for 2014 aren't that strong (Green missed only 3 games, Bernard missed only 3 games

The season ending stats show that Aj green played 13 games.  But he didn't really.  He was hurt all year.  He got turf toe on the opening drive week 2.  He came back and played then missed 3 more games with the same turf toe. Again, he came back and played, but the first two games after he came back he was listed as questionable and posted 44 and 23 yards, respectively. He started week 16,  but he didn't record a catch - to.be fair, he was covered by talib and jeremy hill was en fuego.  He missed the playoffs.  A quick glance at the stats says oh aj green was fine but he really wasn't.  

Gio bernard got hurt in week 8.  He missed 3 games and came back ineffective, prompting the team to turn to jeremy hill the rest of the year.  

Marvin jones missed all of 2014.

Tyler eifert caught all 3 of his targets for 37 yards week 1 before getting hurt and going on ir.  

I don't think i overstated anything, but if i did, please note that i was just as fair in comparing dalton 2015 with aaron rodgers 2014.  It would have been absurd to use rodgers 2015 - you know, because one of his top receivers missed the whole year and another top receiver was hobbled all year and his pass catching running back underperformed.    Sounds a lot like dalton 2014 actually except dalton lost eifert too.  

The fair case to make against dalton is this - he doesn't have sanu or jones anymore.  And eifert is hurt again.  Who knows if eifert will be injury prone his entire career.  Who knows if boyd and lafell can replace jones and sanu.  And dalton has never won games with arm strength.  

But look at manning, brady and brees winning games recently.  None of them are winning on arm strength.  The game has changed to calling plays at the line of scrimmage and finding or creating mismatches and Dalton plays it very well. Dalton right now is arguably the best under 30 pocket passer in the league - there are other guys who may pass him, but he's quietly set the bar pretty high.  The team seems committed to giving him good weapons to work with and promoted his qb coach to fill the offensive coordinator vacancy.  

The Bills, on the other hand, don't seem particularly committed to who their qb, head coach, wr2, tight end, or offensive coordinator will be in 2017. 

I'll just set this mic down here.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It feels a little weird to be taking the anti-Dalton side. When I posted these rankings, I thought I might be in for an argument on Dalton in the other direction. I don't know of many other people who have Dalton in the top 10 dynasty QBs - all 6 FBG dynasty rankers (updated in the last 90 days) and 7 of the 8 DLF rankers have him at 12th or worse; one DLF guy does have him at 8th.

Before last season, Dalton was averageish at passing efficiency. His career highs were 56.8 QBR, 6.3 ANY/A, and 5.6% DVOA. For comparison, Rodgers has beaten each of those numbers 7 times in his 8 seasons as a starter (and he beat the QBR number all 8 times). Last year, at age 28 Dalton had a huge season, ranking 5th in QBR, 2nd in ANY/A, 2nd in DVOA, 7th in PFF grade, and up there in various other stats. It might have been a breakout year, with Dalton taking a step up and figuring out how to avoid mistakes. Or it might have been a one-time career year, due to some mix of flukishness and a favorable situation with lots of healthy weapons and a great offensive line in Hue Jackson's well-designed offense.

I don't think he's a safe bet to keep putting up numbers that are only a step below Rodgers, but the possibility is there and (in my eyes) it's enough to put him ahead of most of the young QBs. But I still have him behind Taylor (as described above), Mariota (not as good a season as Taylor, but he was a rookie and a highly touted prospect), and Winston (who doesn't add as much on the ground, but had a solid rookie year as the #1 pick).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2 weeks in, the biggest risers are Will Fuller, Marvin Jones, Stefon Diggs, Melvin Gordon, CJ Anderson, Spencer Ware, and Theo Riddick.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't keep kicker rankings, but if you were making overall dynasty rankings 5 years ago it turns out in hindsight that Stephen Gostkowski belonged squarely among the top 100. Quite possibly among the top 50. He was the #1 kicker 4 years in a row before this season, and the #3 kicker the year before that, so the value adds up. I posted more about that in the kicker thread, including some numbers from one of my dynasty leagues.

His numbers are down so far this year, partly from missing a few kicks, partly from a drop in New England field goal attempts, and partly from New England's horrible Jacoby Brissett game against Buffalo. So right now there is a window where you can probably acquire Gostkowski for a modest cost (or maybe even for free, if his owner dropped him).

The question is whether he'll bounce back, and whether New England will keep playing in a way that makes the next few years for their kicker like the last few years. Seems worth taking a shot at.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 9/6/2016 at 4:00 AM, ZWK said:

Preseason quarterback rankings. Assuming 12 QB starters and about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/16. Prev from 5/17/16.

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    Cam Newton    CAR    27.3    (1)
1    2    Aaron Rodgers    GB    32.8    (2)
1    3    Russell Wilson    SEA    27.8    (3)
1    4    Andrew Luck    IND    27.0    (4)
3    5    Marcus Mariota    TEN    22.8    (5)
3    6    Jameis Winston    TB    22.7    (6)
4    7    Ben Roethlisberger    PIT    34.5    (7)
4    8    Tyrod Taylor    BUF    27.1    (11)
4    9    Andy Dalton    CIN    28.8    (15)
4    10    Blake Bortles    JAX    24.7    (12)
4    11    Derek Carr    OAK    25.4    (10)
4    12    Jared Goff    RAM    21.9    (9)
4    13    Tom Brady    NE    39.1    (13)
4    14    Carson Wentz    PHI    23.7    (14)
5    15    Matt Ryan    ATL    31.3    (8)
5    16    Drew Brees    NO    37.6    (18)
5    17    Matthew Stafford    DET    28.6    (23)
5    18    Kirk Cousins    WAS    28.0    (24)
5    19    Teddy Bridgewater    MIN    23.8    (17)
5    20    Dak Prescott    DAL    23.1    unr
5    21    Carson Palmer    ARI    36.7    (16)
5    22    Ryan Tannehill    MIA    28.1    (19)
5    23    Paxton Lynch    DEN    22.6    (20)
5    24    Robert Griffin III    CLE    26.5    (25)
5    25    Philip Rivers    SD    34.7    (22)
5    26    Jimmy Garoppolo    NE    24.8    (34)
5    27    Eli Manning    NYG    35.7    (26)
6    28    Sam Bradford    MIN    28.8    (33)
6    29    Brock Osweiler    HOU    25.8    (28)
6    30    Trevor Siemian    DEN    24.7    unr
6    31    Blaine Gabbert    SF    26.9    (35)
6    32    Tony Romo    DAL    36.4    (27)
6    33    Alex Smith    KC    34.4    (29)
6    34    Jay Cutler    CHI    33.3    (30)
6    35    Colin Kaepernick    SF    28.8    (21)
7    36    Bryce Petty    NYJ    25.3    (40)
7    37    Ryan Fitzpatrick    NYJ    33.8    (31)
7    38    Joe Flacco    BAL    31.6    (32)
7    39    Geno Smith    NYJ    25.9    (36)
8    40    Christian Hackenberg    NYJ    21.5    (37)
8    41    Johnny Manziel    CLE    23.7    (38)
8    42    Cody Kessler    CLE    23.3    (39)
8    43    A.J. McCarron    CIN    26.0    (42)
8    44    Chase Daniel    PHI    29.9    (41)
8    45    Brett Hundley    GB    23.2    (44)
8    46    Garrett Grayson    NO    25.3    (45)
8    47    Jacoby Brissett    NE    23.7    (46)
8    48    Case Keenum    RAM    28.5    unr
8    49    Shaun Hill    MIN    36.6    unr

Have you updated since this list? 

I'd think carr would rise to tier 3, Ryan up a bit, does dak go to tier 3? Drop rg3, brisset might rise a little, and Kessler should go tier 5 or 6 but otherwise not much has changed in QBs (imo). 

Edited by FUBAR

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, FUBAR said:

Have you updated since this list? 

I'd think carr would rise to tier 3, Ryan up a bit, does dak go to tier 3? Drop rg3, brisset might rise a little, and Kessler should go tier 5 or 6 but otherwise not much has changed in QBs (imo). 

I don't have an up-to-date list. There should be a few other changes besides the guys you mentioned - Garoppolo up, Bortles, Gabbert, and Palmer down. Brees & Kaepernick up a bit. Probably some others.

The gap between tier 1 and the rest has shrunk, so I might stop skipping over tier 2.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 11/17/2016 at 10:19 AM, ZWK said:

I don't have an up-to-date list. There should be a few other changes besides the guys you mentioned - Garoppolo up, Bortles, Gabbert, and Palmer down. Brees & Kaepernick up a bit. Probably some others.

The gap between tier 1 and the rest has shrunk, so I might stop skipping over tier 2.

Prescott UP a ton ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Casting Couch said:

Prescott UP a ton ?

Yep, FUBAR included that one. 5th-9th is probably a single tier at this point, with Mariota, Winston, Prescott, Carr, and Ryan (not necessarily in that order).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

End-of-season WR rankings. Assuming 0.5 ppr, start 3 WR, about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/17. Prev from 8/26/16 (or Tyrell Williams here).

Tr    Rk    Player    Team    Age    Prev
1    1    Odell Beckham Jr.    NYG    24.8    (1)
1    2    Mike Evans    TB    24.0    (11)
2    3    Julio Jones    ATL    28.6    (4)
2    4    Amari Cooper    OAK    23.2    (7)
2    5    Sammy Watkins    BUF    24.2    (3)
2    6    DeAndre Hopkins    HOU    25.2    (2)
2    7    Antonio Brown    PIT    29.1    (5)
2    8    A.J. Green    CIN    29.1    (8)
3    9    T.Y. Hilton    IND    27.8    (12)
3    10    Alshon Jeffery    CHI    27.5    (9)
3    11    Allen Robinson    JAX    24.0    (6)
3    12    Dez Bryant    DAL    28.8    (10)
3    13    Keenan Allen    SD    25.3    (15)
3    14    Brandin Cooks    NO    23.9    (14)
3    15    Michael Thomas    NO    24.5    (42)
4    16    Corey Coleman    CLE    23.2    (17)
4    17    Devante Parker    MIA    24.6    (19)
4    18    Davante Adams    GB    24.7    (50)
4    19    Kelvin Benjamin    CAR    26.6    (18)
4    20    Josh Doctson    WAS    24.7    (20)
5    21    Stefon Diggs    MIN    23.8    (54)
5    22    Doug Baldwin    SEA    29.9    (33)
5    23    Jordy Nelson    GB    32.3    (28)
5    24    Jarvis Landry    MIA    24.8    (22)
5    25    Demaryius Thomas    DEN    29.7    (16)
5    26    Donte Moncrief    IND    24.1    (29)
5    27    Will Fuller    HOU    23.4    (39)
5    28    Jordan Matthews    PHI    25.1    (30)
5    29    Sterling Shepard    NYG    24.5    (38)
5    30    Kevin White    CHI    25.2    (21)
5    31    Michael Crabtree    OAK    30.0    (52)
5    32    Terrelle Pryor    CLE    28.2    (61)
5    33    Tyrell Williams    SD    25.6    (77)
6    34    Randall Cobb    GB    27.0    (13)
6    35    Julian Edelman    NE    31.3    (26)
6    36    Martavis Bryant    PIT    25.7    (32)
6    37    Laquon Treadwell    MIN    22.2    (24)
6    38    Tyler Lockett    SEA    24.9    (36)
6    39    Josh Gordon    CLE    26.4    (25)
6    40    Emmanuel Sanders    DEN    30.4    (47)
6    41    Tyreek Hill    KC    23.5    unr
6    42    Phillip Dorsett    IND    24.7    (35)
6    43    Jeremy Maclin    KC    29.3    (23)
6    44    Marvin Jones    DET    27.5    (55)
6    45    Cameron Meredith    CHI    24.9    unr
6    46    Golden Tate    DET    29.1    (31)
7    47    Leonte Carroo    MIA    23.6    (37)
7    48    Jamison Crowder    WAS    24.2    unr
7    49    Kenny Britt    FA    28.9    (72)
7    50    John Brown    ARI    27.4    (41)
7    51    Tyler Boyd    CIN    23.8    (46)
7    52    Breshad Perriman    BAL    24.0    (49)
7    53    Adam Thielen    MIN    27.0    unr
7    54    Taylor Gabriel    ATL    26.6    unr
7    55    Eric Decker    NYJ    30.5    (44)
7    56    Rishard Matthews    TEN    27.9    (86)
7    57    Malcolm Mitchell    NE    25.1    (60)
7    58    Allen Hurns    JAX    25.8    (34)
7    59    Brandon Marshall    NYJ    33.4    (27)
8    60    Chris Hogan    NE    28.9    (76)
7    61    Larry Fitzgerald    ARI    34.0    (45)
7    62    Marqise Lee    JAX    25.8    (85)
8    63    Sammie Coates    PIT    24.4    (56)
8    64    Devin Funchess    CAR    23.3    (40)
8    65    Michael Floyd    NE    27.8    (43)
8    66    DeSean Jackson    WAS    30.7    (48)
8    67    Willie Snead    NO    24.9    (58)
8    68    Mike Wallace    BAL    31.1    (71)
8    69    Tajae Sharpe    TEN    22.7    (59)
8    70    Kenny Stills    MIA    25.4    (75)
8    71    Cole Beasley    DAL    28.4    unr
8    72    Robby Anderson    NYJ    24.3    unr
8    73    J.J. Nelson    ARI    25.4    unr
8    74    Nelson Agholor    PHI    24.3    (51)
8    75    Travis Benjamin    SD    27.7    (53)
8    76    Quincy Enunwa    NYJ    25.3    unr
8    77    Paul Richardson    SEA    25.4    (74)
8    78    Dontrelle Inman    SD    28.6    unr
8    79    Tavon Austin    RAM    26.5    (62)
8    80    Dorial Green-Beckham    PHI    24.4    (57)
8    81    Kendall Wright    TEN    27.8    (67)
8    82    Braxton Miller    HOU    24.8    (68)
9    83    Robert Woods    BUF    25.4    (94)
9    84    Pierre Garcon    WAS    31.1    (89)
9    85    Brandon LaFell    CIN    30.8    (126)
9    86    Terrance Williams    DAL    28.0    (102)
9    87    Geronimo Allison    GB    23.6    unr
9    88    Bruce Ellington    SF    26.0    (70)
9    89    Eli Rogers    PIT    24.7    (88)
9    90    Devin Smith    NYJ    25.5    (64)
9    91    Justin Blackmon    JAX    27.6    (81)
9    92    Chris Conley    KC    24.9    (84)
9    93    Percy Harvin    BUF    29.3    unr
9    94    DeAndre Smelter    SF    25.7    (83)
9    95    Ted Ginn    CAR    32.4    (79)
9    96    Mohamed Sanu    ATL    28.0    (92)
10    97    Trevor Davis    GB    24.2    (91)
10    98    Chris Moore    BAL    24.2    (101)
10    99    Jaelen Strong    HOU    23.6    (65)
10    100    Jeff Janis    GB    26.2    (77)
10    101    Markus Wheaton    PIT    26.6    (69)
10    102    Cordarrelle Patterson    MIN    26.5    (113)
10    103    Jeremy Kerley    NYJ    28.8    unr
10    104    Quinton Patton    SF    27.1    (99)
10    105    Torrey Smith    SF    28.6    (63)
10    106    Kamar Aiken    BAL    28.3    (82)
10    107    Jermaine Kearse    SEA    27.6    (80)
10    108    Cody Latimer    DEN    24.9    (87)
10    109    Charles Johnson    MIN    28.5    (66)
10    110    Rashard Higgins    CLE    22.9    (96)
11    111    Vincent Jackson    TB    34.6    (98)
11    112    Russell Shepard    TB    26.8    unr
11    113    Marquess Wilson    CHI    25.0    (110)
11    114    Steve Johnson    SD    31.1    (109)
11    115    Brice Butler    OAK    27.6    unr
11    116    Albert Wilson    KC    25.1    (104)
11    117    Corey Brown    CAR    25.7    (105)
11    118    Pharoh Cooper    RAM    22.5    (107)
11    119    Jakeem Grant    MIA    24.8    (112)
11    120    Mike Thomas    RAM    23.0    (111)
11    121    Moritz Boehringer   FA     23.9    (97)
11    122    Nelson Spruce    RAM    24.7    (125)
11    123    Ricardo Louis    CLE    23.4    (121)
11    124    Bryce Treggs    PHI    23.3    unr
11    125    Danny Amendola    NE    31.8    (100)
11    126    Anquan Boldin    DET    36.9    (114)
11    127    Brian Quick    RAM    28.2    (103)
11    128    Brandon Coleman    NO    25.2    (106)
11    129    Victor Cruz    NYG    30.8    (95)
11    130    Eddie Royal    CHI    31.3    (116)

  • Like 9

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

First off, appreciate the rankings. :thumbup:

18 hours ago, ZWK said:

2    5    Sammy Watkins    BUF    24.2    (3)

Seems considerably too high IMO. I did a quick check in one PPR dynasty league, and he ranked #27, #16, and #20 in PPG for the past 3 seasons. Tyrod could be gone, replacement unknown. He has had difficulty staying healthy. Can you elaborate on why you rank him here? I know you have a system for ranking draft prospects, and I'm wondering if it ranked Watkins really high, and that could be influencing this ranking.

18 hours ago, ZWK said:

3    12    Dez Bryant    DAL    28.8    (10)
3    13    Keenan Allen    SD    25.3    (15)
3    14    Brandin Cooks    NO    23.9    (14)
3    15    Michael Thomas    NO    24.5    (42)
4    16    Corey Coleman    CLE    23.2    (17)
4    17    Devante Parker    MIA    24.6    (19)
4    18    Davante Adams    GB    24.7    (50)
4    19    Kelvin Benjamin    CAR    26.6    (18)
4    20    Josh Doctson    WAS    24.7    (20)
5    21    Stefon Diggs    MIN    23.8    (54)
5    22    Doug Baldwin    SEA    29.9    (33)

Seems like too large a spread between Dez and Baldwin. Not only 10 ranking spots, but putting Dez 2 tiers higher seems way off. Baldwin has outperformed Dez for the past 2 seasons, and has the better QB. Does one year of age dictate this gap? IMO Dez is ranked a bit high and Baldwin is ranked too low.

18 hours ago, ZWK said:

8    78    Dontrelle Inman    SD    28.6    unr

Inman played well in 2016, but this ranking seems high. You have 3 other Chargers WRs ranked higher, and justifiably so. The Chargers also have a strong young TE and target their RBs quite a bit. It also may be that the Chargers will throw fewer passes under Anthony Lynn. Inman is a RFA, so it seems safe to expect he will be back with the Chargers in 2017 and thus will be at least 29 before his situation changes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting that you have VJax and Russell Shepard at 111 & 112 but Humphries didn't make the list at all. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Just Win Baby said:

Seems like too large a spread between Dez and Baldwin. Not only 10 ranking spots, but putting Dez 2 tiers higher seems way off. Baldwin has outperformed Dez for the past 2 seasons, and has the better QB. Does one year of age dictate this gap? IMO Dez is ranked a bit high and Baldwin is ranked too low.

I would imagine a lot of this has to do with ceilings.  Baldwin just put up the best year of his career with 264 fantasy points.  Dez has outscored that number, considerably, three times.

I think Baldwin is safer, and he's definitely trended way up the last two years, but if I told you I went into the future and one of these guys was going to go for 1300 yards and 15 TDs next year I think just about everyone would expect that to be Dez.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tyreek Hill seems really low at 41, off hand I'd think he's on par with Fuller at 27.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I haven't done rankings in a really long time, but I'm pretty high on Hill. I think he'd be at least around the 20-25 range for me.

The main selling point is that he's clearly a special talent in terms of his playmaking ability. He is a freak athlete and when he gets the ball, good things happen.

Drawbacks are his character issues and his lack of a conventional position. Will he get enough touches to be consistent in FF? I think so, but he's unique.

Ultimately, I'll bet on the talent.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, EBF said:

I haven't done rankings in a really long time, but I'm pretty high on Hill. I think he'd be at least around the 20-25 range for me.

The main selling point is that he's clearly a special talent in terms of his playmaking ability. He is a freak athlete and when he gets the ball, good things happen.

Drawbacks are his character issues and his lack of a conventional position. Will he get enough touches to be consistent in FF? I think so, but he's unique.

Ultimately, I'll bet on the talent.

Lot of risk for an upside that may low wr2 though. Percy Harvinish I would say right now, good and bad.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, voiceofunreason said:

Lot of risk for an upside that may low wr2 though. Percy Harvinish I would say right now, good and bad.

Maybe, but he finished wr18 in ppr as a rookie.  #11 ppg after the Chiefs bye week.  That combined with his youth doesn't add up to a receiver outside the top 30 in dynasty even with the risk of him being a Harvin clone (which I don't completely buy anyway)

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.