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ZWK's Dynasty Rankings (WR updated April 2021) (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter ZWK
- Start date
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Thanks for sharing as always, ZWK.
I'm very curious about Tate being so low. For instance he's 20 spots being Michael Crabtree. Their numbers have been fairly close the last couple years and Tate is actually a year younger. In addition, Crabtree has an up and coming WR across from him that could presumably start taking a bigger piece of the pie going forward.
Cobb seems pretty high still as well.
I'm very curious about Tate being so low. For instance he's 20 spots being Michael Crabtree. Their numbers have been fairly close the last couple years and Tate is actually a year younger. In addition, Crabtree has an up and coming WR across from him that could presumably start taking a bigger piece of the pie going forward.
Cobb seems pretty high still as well.
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ZWK
Footballguy
If we divide successful WRs into "technicians" and "freaks", I think that technicians are generally more QB-dependent. Witness Reggie Wayne vs. Pierre Garcon when Manning got hurt, for example. With a technician, the QB needs to get the ball down the field into the right window at the right time. In this case, we also have direct data on what Brown and Martavis Bryant have done when Roethlisberger missed time.
Just Win Baby
Footballguy
ZWK
Footballguy
Pittsburgh's next long-term solution at QB will be better than Landry Jones, but it may take them a couple years to find that guy. Those couple years would be a large fraction of 29-year-old Antonio Brown's remaining career.
ZWK
Footballguy
Crabtree has about 37 fpts more than Golden Tate over the past 2 seasons, which may not seem like much but actually gives him about twice as much VBD. Crabtree's edge over Tate has come on TDs, but given their style of play and their TD production over the rest of their careers, it seems likely that this is a real edge and just short-term variation. Golden Tate's style of play is also more RB-like (more reliant on broken tackles and YAC), which makes me suspect that he is unlikely to age well.
With Cobb I'm mostly betting on upside - he has Rodgers as his QB, which could turn out very well for him if he manages to return to form. But he is more likely than Crabtree or Tate to never be a fantasy starter again.
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
Terrell Pryor escapes the dumpster fire that is Cleveland for a Skins team with an above-average QB who lost their co-#1 WR to FA, and as a result he moves ... down five spots?
Color me curious on that one.
Color me curious on that one.
ZWK
Footballguy
Pryor basically stayed put. 3 rookies slotted in ahead of him and Martavis Bryant leapfrogged him. I don't think that Cleveland vs. Washington makes a huge difference, especially since he was at the end of his contract in Cleveland and is on a one-year deal in Washington.
ZWK
Footballguy
Post-draft quarterback rankings. Assuming 12 QB starters and about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/17. Prev from 2/17/17.
Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev
1 1 Andrew Luck IND 28.0 (1)
1 2 Aaron Rodgers GB 33.7 (2)
2 3 Russell Wilson SEA 28.8 (3)
2 4 Derek Carr OAK 26.4 (4)
2 5 Marcus Mariota TEN 23.8 (5)
2 6 Jameis Winston TB 23.7 (6)
2 7 Matt Ryan ATL 32.3 (7)
2 8 Dak Prescott DAL 24.1 (8)
3 9 Cam Newton CAR 28.3 (9)
4 10 Mitchell Trubisky CHI 23.0 rook
4 11 Patrick Mahomes KC 22.0 rook
4 12 Drew Brees NO 38.6 (15)
4 13 Tom Brady NE 40.1 (16)
4 14 Carson Wentz PHI 24.7 (12)
4 15 Deshaun Watson HOU 22.0 rook
4 16 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 35.5 (10)
4 17 Kirk Cousins WAS 29.0 (14)
4 18 Tyrod Taylor BUF 28.1 (11)
4 19 Andy Dalton CIN 29.8 (13)
4 20 Jared Goff RAM 22.9 (17)
4 21 Jimmy Garoppolo NE 25.8 (19)
4 22 Matthew Stafford DET 29.6 (18)
5 23 Ryan Tannehill MIA 29.1 (20)
5 24 Sam Bradford MIN 29.8 (21)
5 25 Blake Bortles JAX 25.7 (23)
5 26 Teddy Bridgewater MIN 24.8 (22)
5 27 Paxton Lynch DEN 23.6 (24)
5 28 Philip Rivers LAC 35.7 (25)
5 29 DeShone Kizer CLE 21.7 rook
5 30 Eli Manning NYG 36.7 (27)
5 31 Colin Kaepernick 29.8 (26)
5 32 Mike Glennon CHI 27.7 (37)
6 33 Davis Webb NYG 22.6 rook
6 34 Robert Griffin III 27.5 (29)
6 35 Carson Palmer ARI 37.7 (30)
6 36 Trevor Siemian DEN 25.7 (31)
6 37 Cody Kessler CLE 24.3 (41)
6 38 C.J. Beathard SF 23.8 rook
6 39 Alex Smith KC 35.4 (33)
6 40 A.J. McCarron CIN 27.0 (48)
6 41 Brock Osweiler CLE 26.8 (40)
6 42 Brian Hoyer SF 31.9 (38)
6 43 Matt Barkley SF 27.0 (32)
6 44 Bryce Petty NYJ 26.3 (36)
6 45 Landry Jones PIT 28.4 (44)
6 46 Joe Flacco BAL 32.6 (43)
6 47 Tom Savage HOU 27.4 (45)
6 48 Chad Kelly DEN 23.4 rook
6 49 Josh McCown NYJ 38.2 unr
6 50 Geno Smith NYG 26.9 (35)
6 51 Jacoby Brissett NE 24.7 (42)
6 52 Christian Hackenberg NYJ 22.5 (46)
7 53 Matt Moore MIA 33.1 (39)
7 54 Tony Romo RET 37.4 (28)
7 55 Brett Hundley GB 24.2 (47)
7 56 Johnny Manziel 24.7 (50)
7 57 Chase Daniel NO 30.9 (51)
7 58 Ryan Fitzpatrick 34.8 (53)
7 59 Mark Sanchez CHI 30.8 (54)
7 60 Case Keenum MIN 29.5 (57)
I've decided to move Brady and Brees up my rankings. They keep putting up high-end numbers, and while the historical data say that we should keep betting on them hitting their decline any year now, it does seem plausible that they'll have a few more years at this level. High-end QB production is worth a lot more than a low-end starter, so I'll take the chance at getting 1-4 years of high-end production in start 1 QB leagues where starting quarterbacks are readily available each year.
I have the rookies higher than most people do, for similar reasons. The odds aren't great, but they have a better chance than most mid-career QBs do of turning out to be stars. (And, if they do, you get them for their whole career.) Ryan Tannehill is unlikely to emerge as a star at age 29, Eli Manning is unlikely to give you anything more than a few years of borderline QB1/2 production, and Joe Flacco seems like a safe bet to continue his career-long streak outside the top 12 fantasy QBs. So I'll roll the dice on Trubisky, Mahomes, or Watson (alongside Wentz), a tier or more ahead of any of those vets.
Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev
1 1 Andrew Luck IND 28.0 (1)
1 2 Aaron Rodgers GB 33.7 (2)
2 3 Russell Wilson SEA 28.8 (3)
2 4 Derek Carr OAK 26.4 (4)
2 5 Marcus Mariota TEN 23.8 (5)
2 6 Jameis Winston TB 23.7 (6)
2 7 Matt Ryan ATL 32.3 (7)
2 8 Dak Prescott DAL 24.1 (8)
3 9 Cam Newton CAR 28.3 (9)
4 10 Mitchell Trubisky CHI 23.0 rook
4 11 Patrick Mahomes KC 22.0 rook
4 12 Drew Brees NO 38.6 (15)
4 13 Tom Brady NE 40.1 (16)
4 14 Carson Wentz PHI 24.7 (12)
4 15 Deshaun Watson HOU 22.0 rook
4 16 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 35.5 (10)
4 17 Kirk Cousins WAS 29.0 (14)
4 18 Tyrod Taylor BUF 28.1 (11)
4 19 Andy Dalton CIN 29.8 (13)
4 20 Jared Goff RAM 22.9 (17)
4 21 Jimmy Garoppolo NE 25.8 (19)
4 22 Matthew Stafford DET 29.6 (18)
5 23 Ryan Tannehill MIA 29.1 (20)
5 24 Sam Bradford MIN 29.8 (21)
5 25 Blake Bortles JAX 25.7 (23)
5 26 Teddy Bridgewater MIN 24.8 (22)
5 27 Paxton Lynch DEN 23.6 (24)
5 28 Philip Rivers LAC 35.7 (25)
5 29 DeShone Kizer CLE 21.7 rook
5 30 Eli Manning NYG 36.7 (27)
5 31 Colin Kaepernick 29.8 (26)
5 32 Mike Glennon CHI 27.7 (37)
6 33 Davis Webb NYG 22.6 rook
6 34 Robert Griffin III 27.5 (29)
6 35 Carson Palmer ARI 37.7 (30)
6 36 Trevor Siemian DEN 25.7 (31)
6 37 Cody Kessler CLE 24.3 (41)
6 38 C.J. Beathard SF 23.8 rook
6 39 Alex Smith KC 35.4 (33)
6 40 A.J. McCarron CIN 27.0 (48)
6 41 Brock Osweiler CLE 26.8 (40)
6 42 Brian Hoyer SF 31.9 (38)
6 43 Matt Barkley SF 27.0 (32)
6 44 Bryce Petty NYJ 26.3 (36)
6 45 Landry Jones PIT 28.4 (44)
6 46 Joe Flacco BAL 32.6 (43)
6 47 Tom Savage HOU 27.4 (45)
6 48 Chad Kelly DEN 23.4 rook
6 49 Josh McCown NYJ 38.2 unr
6 50 Geno Smith NYG 26.9 (35)
6 51 Jacoby Brissett NE 24.7 (42)
6 52 Christian Hackenberg NYJ 22.5 (46)
7 53 Matt Moore MIA 33.1 (39)
7 54 Tony Romo RET 37.4 (28)
7 55 Brett Hundley GB 24.2 (47)
7 56 Johnny Manziel 24.7 (50)
7 57 Chase Daniel NO 30.9 (51)
7 58 Ryan Fitzpatrick 34.8 (53)
7 59 Mark Sanchez CHI 30.8 (54)
7 60 Case Keenum MIN 29.5 (57)
I've decided to move Brady and Brees up my rankings. They keep putting up high-end numbers, and while the historical data say that we should keep betting on them hitting their decline any year now, it does seem plausible that they'll have a few more years at this level. High-end QB production is worth a lot more than a low-end starter, so I'll take the chance at getting 1-4 years of high-end production in start 1 QB leagues where starting quarterbacks are readily available each year.
I have the rookies higher than most people do, for similar reasons. The odds aren't great, but they have a better chance than most mid-career QBs do of turning out to be stars. (And, if they do, you get them for their whole career.) Ryan Tannehill is unlikely to emerge as a star at age 29, Eli Manning is unlikely to give you anything more than a few years of borderline QB1/2 production, and Joe Flacco seems like a safe bet to continue his career-long streak outside the top 12 fantasy QBs. So I'll roll the dice on Trubisky, Mahomes, or Watson (alongside Wentz), a tier or more ahead of any of those vets.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Do you appreciate that this ranking of Wentz appears anti-Wentz? Especially given your higher than normal ranking of Winston and Mariota last year. I would view Wentz's 2016 as not significantly different than Winston's 2015, and he benefits that the whole organization has shown no inclination to run the ball for the foreseeable future. Certainly part of the reason he hasn't climbed is there are more "long term QB1s" than last year with Carr's cemented status, Ryan's bounceback, etc. I think Wentz has more upside than anyone in the 2016 class including Mahomes if he hits. Is this more based on metric because he dinked too much, previous negative views on him, or just how the chips fell? Certainly there is some homerism in my reaction, but it would be my nature to be very pessimistic if I thought there was a chance he would bust.
I would favor Cam over Dak and possibly others in tier 2 by a significant margin for exactly the same reason you want to move the 40 year old guys up a few spots.
I still don't get how you have Cousins so low (and falling). Is this a "will never be elite" ranking like Staffford? Then why do you have Carr so high.
I would favor Cam over Dak and possibly others in tier 2 by a significant margin for exactly the same reason you want to move the 40 year old guys up a few spots.
I still don't get how you have Cousins so low (and falling). Is this a "will never be elite" ranking like Staffford? Then why do you have Carr so high.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I totally agree with your strategy here. I want upside upside upside with QBs in a normal 1qb 12 team league.
However, it is probably worth noting that QBs do have a tendency to suddenly turn another corner a little older than at other positions. Matt Ryan's best finish prior to turning 30 was QB7. Tannehill has been QB8 and still has another year left before turning 30. He also has two seasons where he scored more than anything Brady had done through age 30 (different eras, to be fair).
I'm not saying it's likely that he'll magically turn a corner, and I'm not high on him, but it's not that out of line for it to happen with a QB. Oddly with QBs sometimes it is those slow and steady borderline QB1/QB2 guys that suddenly turn a corner later in their careers.
ZWK
Footballguy
I had Wentz ranked at 14 before his rookie year and caught some flak for having him so high. His rookie year wasn't very good - he was in the bottom third of passers by most efficiency stats (ANY/A, QBR, DVOA) - and I still have him rated about the same (and again at QB14). It feels like some of the excitement that people were feeling after his strong start to the season is lingering more than it should - if Wentz's good games had been spread throughout the season then that would if anything be a more positive sign about his prospects, but I think that his reputation would not be as positive. Winston was a better prospect, in my eyes and in the eyes of NFL evaluators, and he had a better rookie year, so I ranked him significantly higher than Wentz both as a rookie and as a rising sophomore.
I suspect that Cam's decline is permanent - QBs who ran the ball well in their mid-20s often have a large permanent decline in their rushing output in their late 20s, as I wrote about here and here. The fact that Carolina is looking to remake his playing style seems to support that concern. He has some upside relative to the tier 4 guys based on his chances of reemerging as a high-end fantasy QB, but I'd bet against it (and have, where I owned him).
Tier 4 QB have some upside, or a chance to stick around for several years as a low-end QB1. My expectations of Cousins haven't dropped, he just got leapfrogged by the rookies and Brady+Brees.
Before his age 29 season, Matt Ryan had 2 Pro Bowls, 2 seasons above 7 ANY/A, a 71.5 career QBR, and a career high of 305 fpts (PFR scoring). Ryan Tannehill currently has 0 Pro Bowls, a career high of 6.27 ANY/A, a 54.7 career QBR, and a career high of 279 fpts. Matt Ryan is an example of how age 30+ QBs still have a chance to wildly surprass their previous career highs, but he is not a close comparison to Tannehill in particular. Tannehill has a chance of further improvement, but I (obviously) prefer the guys ahead of him.
jtd13
Footballguy
Thanks as always for sharing your rankings.
Are you really taking guys like Bradford, Lynch, Bridgewater, etc. over Rivers? He has been a top 10 option the last few years even with his receivers going down every year, and his weapons seem to be the best he has had in a long time this coming year. I think I'd have him at least 10 spots higher.
Are you really taking guys like Bradford, Lynch, Bridgewater, etc. over Rivers? He has been a top 10 option the last few years even with his receivers going down every year, and his weapons seem to be the best he has had in a long time this coming year. I think I'd have him at least 10 spots higher.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I think it's popular to say this but the Packers usually hang onto their own guys - and don't generally sign outside free agents. Everyone though they'd let Cobb walk as well. I'm not saying it's a lock they hold onto Adams, but they did invest a second round pick in him and I do think they make an effort to retain him - especially if Rodgers stumps for it.
steelers1080
Footballguy
They could, but he could price himself out of their range if he manages to put up great numbers again, or motivate them to move on if he regresses, to be replaced by one of their other WRs like Geronimo or Malachi. I'm not an Adams fan, so I think 17 is high for him, but I know a lot of people have him ranked around there or higher.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I do not rank him that highly either (and don't own him anywhere) but it just seems like people act like it's more likely than not that he leaves - when my guess is that it's more likely the Packers look to retain him.
"Pricing himself out of their range" is a nebulous statement because it assumes that other teams will value him more than the Packers will; a team that made a heavy investment in him draft pick-wise and in developing him. GB always has these end of bench/depth guys that the fantasy community think can just step in and keep the machine going (before this crop you named it was Abbredis and Janis as popular future studs), yet the Packers keep brining back the guys they spent the high draft picks on like Nelson and Cobb.
Obviously being in the last year of his contract does make it a risk that he will leave, but for one thing there's also a possibility that him leaving is not the deathknell that people make it out to be either. Maybe he is the prospect that many here thought he was when he entered the draft, and what made him a second round pick by a pretty smart organization. Maybe he goes to another good situation.
Maybe I should try and buy low
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Additionally you could say Wentz was a better prospect in the eyes of NFL evaluators than all this years rookies, which is famously justification provided by the Eagles and Roseman of why they invested in him last year.
I think Wentz's good games were spread throughout the year. He definitely made more mistakes in the 2nd half but it's a false narrative that he did great in the first 3 games and then fell apart. They played 3 patsies in the first month and then their schedule got tougher.
How many more pass attempts will Wentz have than Prescott this year? Over/under on 125.
Well, you were too low on him to begin with and have only adjusted down in ranking. He is coming off 2 straight mid QB1 seasons and you are ranking him as if he only has an "some upside" chance to do so again. This is a drastically different situation than Tyrod Taylor who has 3 career VBD and little team commitment. Two teams want Cousins to have high volume pass attempts for their team. No team wants Tyrod to be a starter; his next career phase is journeyman.
You are treating his 2016 like it is a Dalton 2015 fluke (or Foles' one year). But you even gave Dalton credit for that by making him top 10 after 2015. I am open to a viewpoint that Cousins is a flash in the pan but you're not committing to that. You're just saying "he could be good" when his recent history has been very good. Ehh, Rodgers has some upside next year, we'll wait and see.
I see Cousins' chance to become an elite Brees level volume QB at about 20% and chance to maintain mid level QB1 at about 50%. I feel your ranking reflects about a 20% chance of maintaining what he has done the past 2 years. I feel Cousins will outperform Dak, Winston, and Mariota every year over the next standard lifespan of a money league.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
How many good young WRs have the Packers let go? They always seem to re-sign them. They eventually let Jennings and Jones go but that wasn't until each of them were into their 30's.
They signed all of Jennings. Nelson, and Cobb to pretty decent contracts to keep them around when they were in their 20's.
They signed all of Jennings. Nelson, and Cobb to pretty decent contracts to keep them around when they were in their 20's.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I don't get why you have Brees and Brady so low when you have the rookies so high, this seems contradictory to me. If it's so easy to find a starter (with which I concur), and you're putting the premium on upside (also concur), why aren't Brady and Brees top 3 (with Rodgers)? If I get a chance to put those points on the board every year I'm taking it. I'll let someone else hopes Jared Goff gets there then hopes Deshaun Watson can get there and then hopes Josh Rosen can get there ad infinitum.
Just Win Baby
Footballguy
Same question. In particular, why is Rivers a tier and 12 spots lower in the rankings than Roethlisberger?
It appears that Rivers will have an improved offensive line this year, likely one that will not be in the bottom few in the league for the first time in at least a few years. On top of that, he gets Allen back, adds Mike Williams, Tyrell Williams should be improved after a year of experience forced into a WR1 role, and Henry should make a typical second year improvement for a TE. If they remain healthy, Rivers has one of the best groups of targets in the NFL, both for this season and for the foreseeable future.
Meanwhile, Roethlisberger gets hurt a lot for a QB and has missed 5 starts over the past 2 seasons, and he has openly discussed retirement. Neither of those things applies to Rivers. They are the same age.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I would imagine it has to do with Big Ben outscoring Rivers handily over the last 3 years when on the field.
In PPG, Big Ben has finished the last three years as QB5, QB7, QB7. Rivers has finished QB15, QB16, QB18. That is a pretty massive difference.
That said, I am buying Rivers this offseason for all the reasons you listed. However people seem to be treating it like they've been performing the same on the field while Rivers arrow is pointing up and Big Ben's is pointing down. The latter is true, the former is not. Rivers' arrow is pointing up short-term, but he still has to make up the ground he's been trailing (well) behind Big Ben before he can surpass him.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Ben is ranked correctly, Rivers is too low but right tier. Biggest problem is Bradford, Bridgewater (best of luck to him though), Glennon, and Kaepernick should be one tier lower, not in the same tier as Rivers.
ZWK
Footballguy
Many of these questions are covered pretty well just by looking at ppg. Kirk Cousins has lower ppg than Tyrod Taylor over the past 2 seasons (by 0.1 ppg). Philip Rivers is in the QB2 range, 1.5 ppg behind Roethlisberger (and only 1.0 ppg ahead of Eli Manning and Alex Smith). Wentz is down near the bottom, despite his large number of attempts.
Roethlisberger also has some upside relative to his recent ppg, considering the upgrades to Pittsburgh's receiving corps.
I'm going to take another look at things and do a little reshuffling. On reflection I think Cousins should be ahead of Roethlisberger instead of right behind him, and Palmer's upside (if 2016 was an injury-induced down year) should make him a few spots higher.
Roethlisberger also has some upside relative to his recent ppg, considering the upgrades to Pittsburgh's receiving corps.
I'm going to take another look at things and do a little reshuffling. On reflection I think Cousins should be ahead of Roethlisberger instead of right behind him, and Palmer's upside (if 2016 was an injury-induced down year) should make him a few spots higher.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Less when its 6 pt pass TDs. I know you bang the table for Tyrod so I don't want to get too focused on him. I would feel 29 yo passer > nonelite 28 yo dual threat. Recent evidence of Kaepernick (who also blazed PPG last year) is not encouraging. His drawback is longevity both in style and team buy-in, so he is a special case.
That same table shows Cousins ahead of Ben, Carr, Prescott, Mariota, Winston, etc.
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Hu-Tang Clan
Footballguy
Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
Philip Rivers was ppg QB2 in 2015 over the first 8 games, the last time Keenan Allen was healthy. Plenty of upside as long as Allen is healthy, especially with the added weapons.
Just Win Baby
Footballguy
So Roethlisberger has upside considering upgrades to PIT receiving corps but Rivers doesn't considering upgrades to Chargers OL and receiving corps? Seems inconsistent.
I really think this is a case where past performance is not a great predictor of future performance. In 2015, Rivers was QB4 in ppg through week 8, which is when Allen went down for the season, and injuries snowballed from there. Last season, he lost Allen in game 1 and Woodhead in game 3. Those are situations that are not representative of his situation going forward.
ZWK
Footballguy
The last time that Rivers finished as a top 12 QB in ppg was 2013 (19.9 VBD as QB8), and 2011 was the last season where he had more than 20 VBD. He did have a nice stretch at the start of 2015, but that's an 8 game stretch out of the past 5 seasons where a lot of things came together for him at once. He was on pace for a career high both in passing attempts and in passing TDs thanks in large part to a lousy running game (especially in the red zone) and a lousy defense that left them playing from behind a lot. Now Gordon and the defense are solid, and Woodhead is gone.
Rivers does have upside over what he's been doing the past couple years, but Roethlisberger's upside is higher, and young guys like Bortles, Bridgewater, and Lynch have upside and a chance of sustaining it for several years if they reach their upside.
FGB projections for this season have Rivers at QB16, on average, and FFCalculator has his ADP at QB15. Not the sort of numbers that you want to see if you're banking on short-term upside from a QB in his mid-30s.
Rivers does have upside over what he's been doing the past couple years, but Roethlisberger's upside is higher, and young guys like Bortles, Bridgewater, and Lynch have upside and a chance of sustaining it for several years if they reach their upside.
FGB projections for this season have Rivers at QB16, on average, and FFCalculator has his ADP at QB15. Not the sort of numbers that you want to see if you're banking on short-term upside from a QB in his mid-30s.
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Just Win Baby
Footballguy
Fair enough. Although I would point out a couple things. Using one of my fairly typical scoring leagues:
- Rivers was QB6 in ppg in 2013
- He was QB4 in ppg through week 8 in 2014; injuries (most notably Mathews and Woodhead, plus had to play 5 centers) and resulting terrible OL play derailed the offense
- He was QB4 in ppg through week 8 in 2015; injuries (Allen, other WRs, OL) and resulting terrible OL play derailed the offense
- 2016 was a disaster from the start due to injuries (Allen, Stevie, Woodhead) and terrible OL play
We'll see.
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MAC_32
Footballguy
That isn't true.
It'd be difficult to justify ranking him above someone like Garoppolo, but as a 3rd (or 4th) QB I'd rather have him than most veterans that I don't want to start - Alex Smith and Flacco immediately come to mind.
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
Ideally, you want to be both those owners at once.
In a standard-sized, somewhat-deep league, I'm firmly convinced the Nassim Taleb-esque "barbell strategy" is the way to go with QBs ... spend one roster spot on an older elite-level vet while dedicating multiple roster spots to cycling through young, high-upside dart throws (and culling them ruthlessly if they haven't shown at least flashes of being elite by Year 2, i.e. Wilson, Mariota, Winston-level or better). You get top-end points today while maximizing your odds at top-end points years down the line. And if your vet retires before one of your young guys hits, simply acquire another short-timer at low cost, rinse, and repeat.
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MAC_32
Footballguy
Yep, drafted Manning and Bridgewater in a startup 3 years ago. When it was clear Manning was at the end I traded for Rivers. Timing of Bridgewater's injury hurt last year because it was difficult to buy a young QB at that time, but thankfully Rivers stayed healthy. Picked Kizer and Watson in the rookie draft then flipped them for Mariota.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
MAC_32
Footballguy
While I don't think it's an apples-to-apples comparison it may be now, but I think he was about to breakout. I want him as my 3rd QB, so I can find out if he can get back to where I think he was about to be. If he isn't ever going to be the same I think we'll know by this time next year and I can move on if that's the case.
It isn't? Who has come back from this kind of horrific injury and been fantasy relevant? I honestly don't know, so I'm asking.
MAC_32
Footballguy
It may be semantics, but I mainly took exception to the 'highly probable' portion. We're still wedged in the we don't know zone. There aren't enough relevant samples to reference one way or another. This is what Jean wrote April 1 and I'm not aware of an update since then. Would be cool to get one before camp, but I'm really not expecting anything until at least then.
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=17bramel_february_injury_rounds&utm_content=buffer02f09&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
ZWK
Footballguy
Pre-injury, Bridgewater was still in the early stages of his career where there's a lot of uncertainty about what a QB will become. He had some fans who liked what they saw, which suggests that there was some upside there. I've tried to take a snapshot of what I thought of him then and put it on pause, with downgrades for the 2-year delay and the chance that he will never return to form.
My guess on what that chance is, to a first approximation, is that there's a 50% chance that the injury prevents him from ever having any fantasy value and a 50% chance that he recovers completely by the start of the 2018 season and goes on to have the same career that he would've had without the injury. So he should be worth a little under half as much as he was pre-injury.
My guess on what that chance is, to a first approximation, is that there's a 50% chance that the injury prevents him from ever having any fantasy value and a 50% chance that he recovers completely by the start of the 2018 season and goes on to have the same career that he would've had without the injury. So he should be worth a little under half as much as he was pre-injury.
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ZWK
Footballguy
I don't. Partly that's because it's more work and I haven't come up with a simple/elegant way to do that work. Partly it's because the overall ranking depends a lot more on the specifics of the league format. None of the dynasty leagues that I play in have the standard format that I assume for my rankings (scoring, number of starters, roster sizes, etc.), but my positional rankings still come pretty close to how I rank players in each of my leagues. But if I made an overall ranking for a particular format, it would be way off when I looked at a league with a different format.
I do have an overall ranking of rookies here, which you can use to get a rough sense of how the positions relate to each other.
Mr. Irrelevant
IBL Representative
ZWK
Footballguy
Post-draft tight end rankings. Assuming 0.5 PPR, 12 TE starters, and about 250 position players rostered. Age as of 9/1/17. Prev from 2/13/17.
Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev
1 1 Rob Gronkowski NE 28.3 (1)
2 2 Travis Kelce KC 27.9 (2)
2 3 Jordan Reed WAS 27.2 (3)
3 4 Tyler Eifert CIN 27.0 (4)
3 5 Evan Engram NYG 23.0 rook
3 6 O.J. Howard TB 22.8 rook
3 7 David Njoku CLE 21.1 rook
3 8 Hunter Henry LAC 22.7 (5)
3 9 Eric Ebron DET 24.4 (6)
3 10 Zach Ertz PHI 26.8 (7)
4 11 Gerald Everett RAM 23.2 rook
4 12 Greg Olsen CAR 32.5 (8)
4 13 Jimmy Graham SEA 30.8 (9)
5 14 Martellus Bennett GB 30.5 (15)
5 15 Adam Shaheen CHI 23.9 rook
5 16 Kyle Rudolph MIN 27.8 (13)
5 17 Delanie Walker TEN 33.1 (12)
5 18 Austin Hooper ATL 22.8 (17)
6 19 Jonnu Smith TEN 22.0 rook
6 20 Tyler Higbee RAM 24.7 (18)
6 21 C.J. Fiedorowicz HOU 25.9 (14)
6 22 Cameron Brate TB 26.2 (11)
6 23 Dwayne Allen NE 27.5 (19)
6 24 Jack Doyle IND 27.3 (28)
6 25 Coby Fleener NO 28.9 (27)
6 26 Vance McDonald SF 27.2 (16)
6 27 Ladarius Green 27.3 (10)
7 28 Julius Thomas MIA 29.2 (25)
7 29 Zach Miller CHI 32.9 (23)
7 30 Dennis Pitta BAL 32.2 (24)
7 31 Jared Cook OAK 30.4 (32)
7 32 Gary Barnidge 31.9 (22)
7 33 Maxx Williams BAL 23.4 (20)
7 34 Austin Seferian-Jenkins NYJ 24.9 (26)
7 35 Charles Clay BUF 28.5 (31)
7 36 Clive Walford OAK 25.9 (21)
7 37 Jesse James PIT 23.2 (36)
7 38 Antonio Gates LAC 37.2 (35)
7 39 Jason Witten DAL 35.3 (37)
8 40 Bucky Hodges MIN 22.1 rook
8 41 Jake Butt DEN 22.1 rook
8 42 Seth DeValve CLE 24.6 (29)
8 43 Jeff Heuerman DEN 24.8 (34)
8 44 George Kittle SF 23.9 rook
8 45 Eric Saubert ATL 23.3 rook
8 46 Michael Roberts DET 23.3 rook
8 47 Vernon Davis WAS 33.6 (30)
8 48 Jordan Leggett NYJ 22.6 rook
8 49 A.J. Derby DEN 25.9 unr
8 50 Jace Amaro TEN 25.2 (33)
8 51 Lance Kendricks GB 29.6 unr
8 52 Richard Rodgers GB 25.6 (38)
8 53 Darren Waller BAL 25.0 (49)
8 54 Crockett Gilmore BAL 25.8 (58)
8 55 Stephen Anderson HOU 24.6 (53)
9 56 Jermaine Gresham ARI 29.2 (41)
9 57 Jerell Adams NYG 24.7 (43)
9 58 Erik Swoope IND 25.3 (44)
9 59 Troy Niklas ARI 25.0 (45)
9 60 Nick Vannett SEA 24.5 (46)
9 61 Jacob Tamme 33.5 (47)
9 62 Virgil Green DEN 29.1 (57)
There were 5 rookie TEs drafted in the first 45 picks of the NFL draft. All 5 were admired primarily for their receiving (with only Howard standing out as a blocker as well), and 4 of the 5 showed excellent athleticism at the combine (with Shaheen's 4.79 40 time lagging behind the rest). All 5 crack my top 15. Add in Hunter Henry, who is coming off a strong rookie year, and Eric Ebron, who is still only 24 years old, and there is quite a group of young TEs.
My numbers were highest on Engram, both for production and for athleticism, and I think draft position also points slightly in his favor over Howard and Njoku after adjusting for the fact that New York clearly didn't draft him for his blocking. Howard & Njoku are right there behind him, with excellent size/athleticism though not as much production. Henry's impressive-for-a-rookie-TE season puts him up there, and I think he's a safer bet to have at least a solid NFL career, but I am less excited about his upside so he slots in after the rookie first rounders. Eric Ebron has been gradually sliding down my ratings as his production hasn't lived up to what the Lions hoped for, but he hasn't slid that far because his production has still been okay (and improving each year), he is still only 24, and apparently he was playing through injuries last year. I expect that there would be a lot more excitement about Gerald Everett if he'd been taken at pick 44 in one of the previous few draft classes (e.g., as the first TE off the board 11 picks ahead of Maxx Williams) - he is another high-upside receiving TE and PFF had a lot of good things to say about him. Shaheen's athleticism and reputation weren't as good as the others, but they weren't bad, so he's a tier back at #15.
Not far behind them are 2nd year TE Austin Hooper, who looks like the starter for last year's top passing offense, and rookie Jonnu Smith who also has the athleticism and college production but wasn't drafted until pick 100. 2nd year TE Tyler Higbee is another high-upside prospect, although the fact that the Rams chose to draft Everett in the 2nd round is a negative sign for him.
The dynasty TE position is deeper and more talented than it has ever been before. Things aren't quite as strong at the top as they have been, though, as all of the top 4 have injury troubles (Gronk, Kelce, Reed, and Eifert). They have a pretty clear rank order in my eyes, as no one matches Gronk's production, Eifert has been the least productive, and Reed has much bigger injury concerns than Kelce.
Tr Rk Player Team Age Prev
1 1 Rob Gronkowski NE 28.3 (1)
2 2 Travis Kelce KC 27.9 (2)
2 3 Jordan Reed WAS 27.2 (3)
3 4 Tyler Eifert CIN 27.0 (4)
3 5 Evan Engram NYG 23.0 rook
3 6 O.J. Howard TB 22.8 rook
3 7 David Njoku CLE 21.1 rook
3 8 Hunter Henry LAC 22.7 (5)
3 9 Eric Ebron DET 24.4 (6)
3 10 Zach Ertz PHI 26.8 (7)
4 11 Gerald Everett RAM 23.2 rook
4 12 Greg Olsen CAR 32.5 (8)
4 13 Jimmy Graham SEA 30.8 (9)
5 14 Martellus Bennett GB 30.5 (15)
5 15 Adam Shaheen CHI 23.9 rook
5 16 Kyle Rudolph MIN 27.8 (13)
5 17 Delanie Walker TEN 33.1 (12)
5 18 Austin Hooper ATL 22.8 (17)
6 19 Jonnu Smith TEN 22.0 rook
6 20 Tyler Higbee RAM 24.7 (18)
6 21 C.J. Fiedorowicz HOU 25.9 (14)
6 22 Cameron Brate TB 26.2 (11)
6 23 Dwayne Allen NE 27.5 (19)
6 24 Jack Doyle IND 27.3 (28)
6 25 Coby Fleener NO 28.9 (27)
6 26 Vance McDonald SF 27.2 (16)
6 27 Ladarius Green 27.3 (10)
7 28 Julius Thomas MIA 29.2 (25)
7 29 Zach Miller CHI 32.9 (23)
7 30 Dennis Pitta BAL 32.2 (24)
7 31 Jared Cook OAK 30.4 (32)
7 32 Gary Barnidge 31.9 (22)
7 33 Maxx Williams BAL 23.4 (20)
7 34 Austin Seferian-Jenkins NYJ 24.9 (26)
7 35 Charles Clay BUF 28.5 (31)
7 36 Clive Walford OAK 25.9 (21)
7 37 Jesse James PIT 23.2 (36)
7 38 Antonio Gates LAC 37.2 (35)
7 39 Jason Witten DAL 35.3 (37)
8 40 Bucky Hodges MIN 22.1 rook
8 41 Jake Butt DEN 22.1 rook
8 42 Seth DeValve CLE 24.6 (29)
8 43 Jeff Heuerman DEN 24.8 (34)
8 44 George Kittle SF 23.9 rook
8 45 Eric Saubert ATL 23.3 rook
8 46 Michael Roberts DET 23.3 rook
8 47 Vernon Davis WAS 33.6 (30)
8 48 Jordan Leggett NYJ 22.6 rook
8 49 A.J. Derby DEN 25.9 unr
8 50 Jace Amaro TEN 25.2 (33)
8 51 Lance Kendricks GB 29.6 unr
8 52 Richard Rodgers GB 25.6 (38)
8 53 Darren Waller BAL 25.0 (49)
8 54 Crockett Gilmore BAL 25.8 (58)
8 55 Stephen Anderson HOU 24.6 (53)
9 56 Jermaine Gresham ARI 29.2 (41)
9 57 Jerell Adams NYG 24.7 (43)
9 58 Erik Swoope IND 25.3 (44)
9 59 Troy Niklas ARI 25.0 (45)
9 60 Nick Vannett SEA 24.5 (46)
9 61 Jacob Tamme 33.5 (47)
9 62 Virgil Green DEN 29.1 (57)
There were 5 rookie TEs drafted in the first 45 picks of the NFL draft. All 5 were admired primarily for their receiving (with only Howard standing out as a blocker as well), and 4 of the 5 showed excellent athleticism at the combine (with Shaheen's 4.79 40 time lagging behind the rest). All 5 crack my top 15. Add in Hunter Henry, who is coming off a strong rookie year, and Eric Ebron, who is still only 24 years old, and there is quite a group of young TEs.
My numbers were highest on Engram, both for production and for athleticism, and I think draft position also points slightly in his favor over Howard and Njoku after adjusting for the fact that New York clearly didn't draft him for his blocking. Howard & Njoku are right there behind him, with excellent size/athleticism though not as much production. Henry's impressive-for-a-rookie-TE season puts him up there, and I think he's a safer bet to have at least a solid NFL career, but I am less excited about his upside so he slots in after the rookie first rounders. Eric Ebron has been gradually sliding down my ratings as his production hasn't lived up to what the Lions hoped for, but he hasn't slid that far because his production has still been okay (and improving each year), he is still only 24, and apparently he was playing through injuries last year. I expect that there would be a lot more excitement about Gerald Everett if he'd been taken at pick 44 in one of the previous few draft classes (e.g., as the first TE off the board 11 picks ahead of Maxx Williams) - he is another high-upside receiving TE and PFF had a lot of good things to say about him. Shaheen's athleticism and reputation weren't as good as the others, but they weren't bad, so he's a tier back at #15.
Not far behind them are 2nd year TE Austin Hooper, who looks like the starter for last year's top passing offense, and rookie Jonnu Smith who also has the athleticism and college production but wasn't drafted until pick 100. 2nd year TE Tyler Higbee is another high-upside prospect, although the fact that the Rams chose to draft Everett in the 2nd round is a negative sign for him.
The dynasty TE position is deeper and more talented than it has ever been before. Things aren't quite as strong at the top as they have been, though, as all of the top 4 have injury troubles (Gronk, Kelce, Reed, and Eifert). They have a pretty clear rank order in my eyes, as no one matches Gronk's production, Eifert has been the least productive, and Reed has much bigger injury concerns than Kelce.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I'm interested in hearing more about CJ Fiedorowicz.
21st ranked TE and that's not particularly out of line with most rankings. Yet last year in his first year as a starter he posted 52-552-4 in 12 games as the starter. Over 16 games that projects to 69-736-5. That would have been good for TE7 last year (just behind Zach Ertz) and he did it with his first real playing time and with Brock Osweiler tossing the rock. It seems like it's possible or perhaps even probable that both he AND his situation will improve going forward (hard to get much worse than Osweiler).
21st ranked TE and that's not particularly out of line with most rankings. Yet last year in his first year as a starter he posted 52-552-4 in 12 games as the starter. Over 16 games that projects to 69-736-5. That would have been good for TE7 last year (just behind Zach Ertz) and he did it with his first real playing time and with Brock Osweiler tossing the rock. It seems like it's possible or perhaps even probable that both he AND his situation will improve going forward (hard to get much worse than Osweiler).
Just Win Baby
Footballguy
Interesting. Henry already showed he is an excellent red zone target, with 8 TDs on 53 targets as a rookie. He added 36/478 on those targets, despite playing with HOF TE Gates, who got 93 targets himself... Gates will be retired after this season, implying Henry is in line for 100+ targets starting NLT next season. He could easily double his receptions and receiving yards from his rookie season with that many targets. IMO he should be ranked above Njoku and Engram.
ZWK
Footballguy
I see Fiedorowicz as the kind of guy who might hang around the borderline TE1/TE2 part of the rankings but isn't that likely to emerge as a difference maker. His efficiency stats were bad (YPT, DVOA, fpts/target) - I expect that part of that was Osweiler loving to dump it off, but that also helped him get so many targets (10th most among TEs).
Fiedorowicz started 15 games according to PFR - he didn't have many targets in his first 3 games but in 2 of the 3 he played more than half the snaps and led Houston's TEs in snaps. So pro-rating his last 12 games seems kind of iffy. Even if we do just focus on those 12 games, you neglected to pro-rate everyone else's stats. 52/552/4 in 12 games would've ranked 15th in ppg (min 8 games, 0.5 ppr), behind guys like Zach Miller (47/486/4 in 10 games) and Camero Brate (57/660/8 in 15 games).
Henry did have very good efficiency stats as a rookie. But I think that some of that was Rivers (who doesn't have many years left), and it's also a small sample size. He doesn't have the athleticism or draft pedigree of guys like Njoku and Engram, and often the difference-makers at TE do. Henry is a safer bet than than rookies to string together several top-10 TE seasons, so in some formats I'd prefer him, but in a league with only 12 TEs starting each week I'll roll the dice on the athletic rookie first rounders.
EBF
Footballguy
I think Henry has a chance to become a Witten type of player. Witten isn't the same type of athlete as guys like Eifert, Gonzalez, and Graham, but he wins with a combination of routes, size, and hands. I could see Henry turning out to the same. Steady and reliable, without ever being the unquestioned #1 TE in the NFL.
In my opinion he definitely has a higher floor than Engram/Njoku. They might have a higher ceiling than him, but I'd probably favor him in dynasty since he has already shown that he can play. I like Njoku a lot, but there's at least a little bit of a bust risk. I think Engram is a volatile prospect who could be a star or a big disappointment.
In my opinion he definitely has a higher floor than Engram/Njoku. They might have a higher ceiling than him, but I'd probably favor him in dynasty since he has already shown that he can play. I like Njoku a lot, but there's at least a little bit of a bust risk. I think Engram is a volatile prospect who could be a star or a big disappointment.
ZWK
Footballguy
I basically agree with EBF on shape of the Henry vs. Engram/Njoku debate, I just come down in favor of the riskier higher ceiling guys.
Some more brief player capsules:
On tier 5: Martellus Bennett has Aaron Rodgers, which gives him plenty of upside. Rudolph finally had a breakout year, but it was too Pettigrewesque for my taste. I have Walker ranked 4th in this tier but I might take him ahead of the other guys if I'm in win-now mode and in a league where TEs are relatively cheap to add.
On tier 6: TE19 (Jonnu Smith) through 25 (Coby Fleener) are all pretty tightly packed together. Smith & Higbee are high-upside young athletic guys who have an uphill battle to amount to anything, Brate & Fiedorowicz are solid early-career guys who probably won't offer much fantasy value in leagues with only 12 TEs starting each week (though they still have some upside), and Allen, Doyle, and Fleener don't look like great TEs but do have great QBs. Howard going to the Bucs was bad news for Brate (both because it's competition and because it's a bad sign about what they think of him) but not necessarily the end of his fantasy value - TEs often take a couple years to develop and Brate will be an unrestricted free agent in 2 years. There is still a chance that Fleener will do in 2017 what everyone was hoping for in 2016, now that he has had another year to get familiar with the NO playbook and develop rapport with Brees.
Jack Doyle has Andrew Luck. Coby Fleener has Drew Brees, and his mediocre 2016 doesn't necessarily doom him - he has had another year to get familiar with the NO playbook and develop rapport with Brees.
Tier 7 is relatively low-upside TE2s (aka potentially decent stopgaps) and not-so-great prospects, although some of them could be low-end TE1s (like Pitta, if none of Baltimore's other TEs step up). In start-1 TE leagues, I probably wouldn't want to own anyone in tier 8 or lower unless I had taxi squad space, or was churning a roster spot (e.g., as we find out who is likely to get the TE targets in Denver. Even with the tier 7 guys I might not want to use a roster spot on them if I don't need to.
Some more brief player capsules:
On tier 5: Martellus Bennett has Aaron Rodgers, which gives him plenty of upside. Rudolph finally had a breakout year, but it was too Pettigrewesque for my taste. I have Walker ranked 4th in this tier but I might take him ahead of the other guys if I'm in win-now mode and in a league where TEs are relatively cheap to add.
On tier 6: TE19 (Jonnu Smith) through 25 (Coby Fleener) are all pretty tightly packed together. Smith & Higbee are high-upside young athletic guys who have an uphill battle to amount to anything, Brate & Fiedorowicz are solid early-career guys who probably won't offer much fantasy value in leagues with only 12 TEs starting each week (though they still have some upside), and Allen, Doyle, and Fleener don't look like great TEs but do have great QBs. Howard going to the Bucs was bad news for Brate (both because it's competition and because it's a bad sign about what they think of him) but not necessarily the end of his fantasy value - TEs often take a couple years to develop and Brate will be an unrestricted free agent in 2 years. There is still a chance that Fleener will do in 2017 what everyone was hoping for in 2016, now that he has had another year to get familiar with the NO playbook and develop rapport with Brees.
Jack Doyle has Andrew Luck. Coby Fleener has Drew Brees, and his mediocre 2016 doesn't necessarily doom him - he has had another year to get familiar with the NO playbook and develop rapport with Brees.
Tier 7 is relatively low-upside TE2s (aka potentially decent stopgaps) and not-so-great prospects, although some of them could be low-end TE1s (like Pitta, if none of Baltimore's other TEs step up). In start-1 TE leagues, I probably wouldn't want to own anyone in tier 8 or lower unless I had taxi squad space, or was churning a roster spot (e.g., as we find out who is likely to get the TE targets in Denver. Even with the tier 7 guys I might not want to use a roster spot on them if I don't need to.
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