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Official Latavius Murray - top 5 RB 2013 class

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I think hes a nice value in redraft for those that wait on rb.  If he can be even close to Ingram that's a decent play every week

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I love him this year and am taking him at 7.01 in mocks as rb4 because he doesn't get back to me at 8.12.  If Kamara goes down, you got a league winner.  I'm getting raked over the coals in the Guice thread for trading Watson and Guice for Aaron Rodgers and Murray in redraft.  🙄

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13 minutes ago, SCT said:

I love him this year and am taking him at 7.01 in mocks as rb4 because he doesn't get back to me at 8.12.  If Kamara goes down, you got a league winner.  I'm getting raked over the coals in the Guice thread for trading Watson and Guice for Aaron Rodgers and Murray in redraft.  🙄

Watson alone is probably a good enough reason for that

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15 minutes ago, SCT said:

I love him this year and am taking him at 7.01 in mocks as rb4 because he doesn't get back to me at 8.12.  If Kamara goes down, you got a league winner.  I'm getting raked over the coals in the Guice thread for trading Watson and Guice for Aaron Rodgers and Murray in redraft.  🙄

I read the Guice thread, and I think most assumed it was a dynasty league instead of redraft.  Once it was made clear it was redraft, the raking all but stopped.

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3 hours ago, need2know said:

I think hes a nice value in redraft for those that wait on rb.  If he can be even close to Ingram that's a decent play every week

I’m not convinced he can be. 

I’ve had LM on my teams for the last several years. 

When given opportunity he’s had mixed results. Couple nice games, couple stinkers, but mostly mediocrity. 

He’s a plodder, who gets what the OL gives him. He doesn’t have great hands, which is not good in that saints offense. 

he’s a guy who  FF owners will convince themselves “could be a top 10 back if only [elite RB] gets hurt. But here’s the thing - he’s not. 

If Kamara goes down the Saints will pull out some no-name RBs + Murray and it’ll likely be a RBBC where Murray gets a few nice runs & maybe a score here & there but ultimately not enough to be a viable fantasy contributor with any level of trust or consistency. 

These are just opinions, and I’m not a football guru - just a dude who’s seen enough of Murray over the years to not be a believer in him ever becoming a feature back, and especially not on a team where they already use a RBBC by design to limit Kamara’s load. 

If he was sitting there in the 12-14 rounds like when he was behind Cook in MIN, I’d probably grab him, but in the 7-8 rounds I think he’s vastly over-drafted for his value. 

Assuming good health all around he’s not as good as Ingram, and if his upside is a Kamara injury, I expect he’ll disappoint. 

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10 hours ago, SCT said:

I love him this year and am taking him at 7.01 in mocks as rb4 because he doesn't get back to me at 8.12.  If Kamara goes down, you got a league winner.  I'm getting raked over the coals in the Guice thread for trading Watson and Guice for Aaron Rodgers and Murray in redraft.  🙄

Don’t get your panties in a bunch. 

I’ve always been down on Murray but this year I’m on board. I have Kamara already so I’m not super excited to start both but if he falls to round 9 I’ll take him. Should get plenty of goal line work. 

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11 hours ago, SCT said:

I love him this year and am taking him at 7.01 in mocks as rb4 because he doesn't get back to me at 8.12.  If Kamara goes down, you got a league winner.  I'm getting raked over the coals in the Guice thread for trading Watson and Guice for Aaron Rodgers and Murray in redraft.  🙄

Wouldn't they just continue Murray in his role and bring up another back or two?  This is what Payton has done in the past if I recall?

Edited by matuski

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Devine Ozigbo is basically free. I heard an analyst today on SiriusXM Fantasy Channel say that there's some smoke building in Saints camp that he might be developing to the point where he could threaten Murray's workload. I'm proceeding with caution while trying to gather more info, but thought it might be worth mentioning, in case it turns out to be a thing.

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10 hours ago, nittanylion said:

Devine Ozigbo is basically free. I heard an analyst today on SiriusXM Fantasy Channel say that there's some smoke building in Saints camp that he might be developing to the point where he could threaten Murray's workload. I'm proceeding with caution while trying to gather more info, but thought it might be worth mentioning, in case it turns out to be a thing.

Always appreciate the rare bits of info most don’t hear. Thank you. 

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10 hours ago, nittanylion said:

Devine Ozigbo is basically free. I heard an analyst today on SiriusXM Fantasy Channel say that there's some smoke building in Saints camp that he might be developing to the point where he could threaten Murray's workload. I'm proceeding with caution while trying to gather more info, but thought it might be worth mentioning, in case it turns out to be a thing.

The Saints usually carry 6+ RBs on the roster.  Under Payton, the Saints have used a 3-headed RB rotation going back to before Reggie Bush.  I love Ozigbo.  He is literally on every dynasty team.  He will develop into a terrific player IMO.  I don't think he is threatening Murray at all.  He has a role barring injuries.  If you know Paytons offense, you should know what that role is.  It takes a village to win in the NFL. IMHO.

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23 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I’m not convinced he can be. 

I’ve had LM on my teams for the last several years. 

When given opportunity he’s had mixed results. Couple nice games, couple stinkers, but mostly mediocrity. 

He’s a plodder, who gets what the OL gives him. He doesn’t have great hands, which is not good in that saints offense. 

he’s a guy who  FF owners will convince themselves “could be a top 10 back if only [elite RB] gets hurt. But here’s the thing - he’s not. 

If Kamara goes down the Saints will pull out some no-name RBs + Murray and it’ll likely be a RBBC where Murray gets a few nice runs & maybe a score here & there but ultimately not enough to be a viable fantasy contributor with any level of trust or consistency. 

These are just opinions, and I’m not a football guru - just a dude who’s seen enough of Murray over the years to not be a believer in him ever becoming a feature back, and especially not on a team where they already use a RBBC by design to limit Kamara’s load. 

If he was sitting there in the 12-14 rounds like when he was behind Cook in MIN, I’d probably grab him, but in the 7-8 rounds I think he’s vastly over-drafted for his value. 

Assuming good health all around he’s not as good as Ingram, and if his upside is a Kamara injury, I expect he’ll disappoint. 

Tend to agree that Latavius is a good, not great RB who hasn't shown tons of consistency to be a featured back. I can't say that his hands are poor, but it is notable that he is not thought of as a receiver, especially inside the 20s. He has not caught a TD in his career thus far.

But that's not his value nor his role. His value is dependent upon his rushing TD, and while his performance can be variable, he has averaged 8.75 TDs/season for the last 4 years across roles where he was more of a featured/2-down back in OAK and more of a speller/injury starter in MIN.

Ingram was used in the red zone, and I don't see this changing for Murray in terms of his usage on the Saints. So despite yardage, I would expect him to net out just under his average at around 7, with a solid floor of yardage around 625. 

So seems like a solid RB3, with a little more upside in TD-dependent leagues.

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13 hours ago, Elevencents said:

I have Kamara already so I’m not super excited to start both but if he falls to round 9 I’ll take him. Should get plenty of goal line work. 

I also have Kamara, it would lock up most of the saints running game but never thrilled about starting 2 rbs on the same team.

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2 minutes ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

Tend to agree that Latavius is a good, not great RB who hasn't shown tons of consistency to be a featured back. I can't say that his hands are poor, but it is notable that he is not thought of as a receiver, especially inside the 20s. He has not caught a TD in his career thus far.

But that's not his value nor his role. His value is dependent upon his rushing TD, and while his performance can be variable, he has averaged 8.75 TDs/season for the last 4 years across roles where he was more of a featured/2-down back in OAK and more of a speller/injury starter in MIN.

Ingram was used in the red zone, and I don't see this changing for Murray in terms of his usage on the Saints. So despite yardage, I would expect him to net out just under his average at around 7, with a solid floor of yardage around 625. 

So seems like a solid RB3, with a little more upside in TD-dependent leagues.

Not an unfair assessment. That said, the saints may start off using him in the short yardage/GL role, and Murray may be ineffective causing the Saints to change their plans a little. 

Murray has been used in that role - and he’s been  able to score several touchdowns a year, as you suggest. IIRC his conversion rate was unspectacular.  I distinctly recall him failing to punch it in several times in Minnesota. I remember it distinctly because a couple of times those failures cost me a win. 

 But in terms of expectations I think you were on point. He is a RB3 who, if all goes well, has RB2 upside.

The trouble is, people are drafting him as a RB2 with RB1 upside if Kamara gets hurt. 

I think he’d be borderline & the Saints would get pass-happy. Heh

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I personally couldn’t imagine burning a pick in the 7th on Murray. He seems like a guy you are going to cut week 3 or 4 or sit on all year, burn a roster spot and never start.  After watching him close on the vikes the last couple years he seems very average to me. 

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31 minutes ago, mozzy84 said:

I personally couldn’t imagine burning a pick in the 7th on Murray. He seems like a guy you are going to cut week 3 or 4 or sit on all year, burn a roster spot and never start.  After watching him close on the vikes the last couple years he seems very average to me. 

I think he’s slightly below average. He’s a plodder who gets what his OL gives him.

He lacks top end speed, so even if he finds a hole he gets tackled from behind. 

I looked up his conversion rate in short yardage, and was surprised to see it was 67%, but that was in 2017. In 2018 that dropped to 53%. Wonder what it’ll be in 2019? Likely whatever the Saints OL is capable of creating for him. 

Here’s an interesting irony: many drafting Murray are doing so as a lottery ticket in case Kamara gets hurt. Meanwhile Murray is rated a 2/5 on durability. While no guarantee, they give him a 49.6% chance of getting hurt based on his injury history (which is lengthier than I thought).

https://sportsinjurypredictor.com/player/latavius-murray/6732

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3 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I think he’s slightly below average. He’s a plodder who gets what his OL gives him.

He lacks top end speed, so even if he finds a hole he gets tackled from behind. 

I looked up his conversion rate in short yardage, and was surprised to see it was 67%, but that was in 2017. In 2018 that dropped to 53%. Wonder what it’ll be in 2019? Likely whatever the Saints OL is capable of creating for him. 

Here’s an interesting irony: many drafting Murray are doing so as a lottery ticket in case Kamara gets hurt. Meanwhile Murray is rated a 2/5 on durability. While no guarantee, they give him a 49.6% chance of getting hurt based on his injury history (which is lengthier than I thought).

https://sportsinjurypredictor.com/player/latavius-murray/6732

Idk dude. Plodders don't usually get 3rd contracts, except maybe for league minimum price. 

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On 8/13/2019 at 11:13 AM, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I think he’s slightly below average. He’s a plodder who gets what his OL gives him.

He lacks top end speed, so even if he finds a hole he gets tackled from behind. 

I looked up his conversion rate in short yardage, and was surprised to see it was 67%, but that was in 2017. In 2018 that dropped to 53%. Wonder what it’ll be in 2019? Likely whatever the Saints OL is capable of creating for him. 

Here’s an interesting irony: many drafting Murray are doing so as a lottery ticket in case Kamara gets hurt. Meanwhile Murray is rated a 2/5 on durability. While no guarantee, they give him a 49.6% chance of getting hurt based on his injury history (which is lengthier than I thought).

https://sportsinjurypredictor.com/player/latavius-murray/6732

Most plodder's don't run 4.45 at their Pro Day's coming out.

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2 hours ago, LakeCowboy said:

Most plodder's don't run 4.45 at their Pro Day's coming out.

How long ago was that? Are you saying he’s running a 4.45 currently? 😳

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45 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:
2 hours ago, LakeCowboy said:

Most plodder's don't run 4.45 at their Pro Day's coming out.

How long ago was that? Are you saying he’s running a 4.45 currently? 😳

I think he hand timed that himself this morning? 

A long time ago (6 years?) Murray was left off the invite list to the Combine, and subsequently ran a 4.38 at the UCF Pro Day. Odd factoid actually, I don’t think anyone has ever said “Boy that guy is a burner.”

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23 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

I think he hand timed that himself this morning? 

A long time ago (6 years?) Murray was left off the invite list to the Combine, and subsequently ran a 4.38 at the UCF Pro Day. Odd factoid actually, I don’t think anyone has ever said “Boy that guy is a burner.”

These days you can time him  with a sundial. :lol: 

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I don't think anyone would call Murray a speed back, but I never though of him as a plodder either. He shows fairly good speed in his 2018 highlights (2018 Lat Murray) - and he'll have a far superior o-line this season.

I don't agree with some that say he's as good/better than Ingram, but he could earn a decent role behind Kamara and return value.

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11 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

These days you can time him  with a sundial. :lol: 

Can’t remember who said it but heard on a podcast his running style hasn’t changed since he was a sixth rounder buried on the Oakland depth chart: run hard to the hole that was called - I believe “chicken with its head cutoff” was employed - and if there’s a hole, great, if not, he’ll probably fall down.

Good ball security (8 in 1027 touches), so there’s that.

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On 8/13/2019 at 12:13 PM, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I think he’s slightly below average. He’s a plodder who gets what his OL gives him.

He lacks top end speed, so even if he finds a hole he gets tackled from behind. 

I looked up his conversion rate in short yardage, and was surprised to see it was 67%, but that was in 2017. In 2018 that dropped to 53%. Wonder what it’ll be in 2019? Likely whatever the Saints OL is capable of creating for him. 

Here’s an interesting irony: many drafting Murray are doing so as a lottery ticket in case Kamara gets hurt. Meanwhile Murray is rated a 2/5 on durability. While no guarantee, they give him a 49.6% chance of getting hurt based on his injury history (which is lengthier than I thought).

https://sportsinjurypredictor.com/player/latavius-murray/6732

I think a better metric would be how did he do VS others running behind the same terrible vikings line.  I forgot where I saw it but I remember reading that he preformed better than the other rbs in short yardage situations for the past few years there.

If he "gets what the line gives him" then an upgrade in his oline this big gives him a huge advantage from the past few seasons.

 

Personally, he's not a Kamara insurance.  He's an Ingram replacement.  And that's a back end rb2.

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39 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

I think a better metric would be how did he do VS others running behind the same terrible vikings line.  I forgot where I saw it but I remember reading that he preformed better than the other rbs in short yardage situations for the past few years there.

If he "gets what the line gives him" then an upgrade in his oline this big gives him a huge advantage from the past few seasons.

 

Personally, he's not a Kamara insurance.  He's an Ingram replacement.  And that's a back end rb2.

 Except Ingram is better at pretty much everything,  other than short yardage. And even that category is close. 

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Just now, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 Except Ingram is better at pretty much everything,  other than short yardage. And even that category is close. 

Well Ingram was a solid to top rb2 depending on the league.  Which is why I give Murray a back rb2 rating. He's still going to feast on tds.

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47 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

Can’t remember who said it but heard on a podcast his running style hasn’t changed since he was a sixth rounder buried on the Oakland depth chart: run hard to the hole that was called - I believe “chicken with its head cutoff” was employed - and if there’s a hole, great, if not, he’ll probably fall down.

Good ball security (8 in 1027 touches), so there’s that.

To me, this is the biggest difference between Latavius Murray and marking room. Ingram has vision and often adjusts in the backfield on the fly, improvising to find a hole and make some yards. Murray far too frequently runs into a pile. 

 If people are drafting Murray expecting marking room production, I think they may be disappointed.  He’s just not as good at making his own yards  and especially on a busted play. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

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4 minutes ago, wgoldsph said:

Well Ingram was a solid to top rb2 depending on the league.  Which is why I give Murray a back rb2 rating. He's still going to feast on tds.

 Unless he gets in Sean Payton‘s doghouse for literally any reason. Then he’ll be benched for a game or two.  :doh: 

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2 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 Unless he gets in Sean Payton‘s doghouse for literally any reason. Then he’ll be benched for a game or two.  :doh: 

Yeah, but you could say that of any Saint not named Brees

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2 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

To me, this is the biggest difference between Latavius Murray and marking room. Ingram has vision and often adjusts in the backfield on the fly, improvising to find a hole and make some yards. Murray far too frequently runs into a pile. 

 If people are drafting Murray expecting marking room production, I think they may be disappointed.  He’s just not as good at making his own yards  and especially on a busted play. 

In honor of your penchant for posting via voice-to-text, I hereby nominate Marking Room as Mark Ingram’s new nickname. Stylized M-Room in FF Forums.

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1 hour ago, BobbyLayne said:

In honor of your penchant for posting via voice-to-text, I hereby nominate Marking Room as Mark Ingram’s new nickname. Stylized M-Room in FF Forums.

I sat there for 3 minutes trying to figure out what the hell “Marking room” was.  

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On 8/13/2019 at 11:34 AM, mozzy84 said:

I personally couldn’t imagine burning a pick in the 7th on Murray. He seems like a guy you are going to cut week 3 or 4 or sit on all year, burn a roster spot and never start.  After watching him close on the vikes the last couple years he seems very average to me. 

Average + Opportunity on a high scoring offense can equal a nice bye week filler/backup on a ff roster 

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Q1. Who is the most undervalued RB based on his current half-PPR ADP and why?

Latavius Murray (NO)


ADP: 91st Overall | RB36
“I could say Chris Carson, but I’ll go down the draft board a bit and say that Murray is being severely undervalued. Did you know both Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara were RB1s in 2017? Or how about that they scored even more combined fantasy points per game in 2018? Murray was signed early in free agency, highlighting the need the Saints knew they had. RB2 numbers are well within reach.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)

“Latavius Murray is assuming the Mark Ingram role with the Saints. Since 2014, Ingram has finished as the RB14, RB12, RB8, RB6, and RB32 (12 games). Murray screams value with his ADP residing at RB31. To boot, Murray has the fourth most rushing touchdowns (26) over the last three seasons. He’s getting attention in fantasy drafts, but not enough.”
– Zach Greubel (Gridiron Experts)

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2 hours ago, BobbyLayne said:

In honor of your penchant for posting via voice-to-text, I hereby nominate Marking Room as Mark Ingram’s new nickname. Stylized M-Room in FF Forums.

Acceptable. 

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Any idea what's the deal with his undisclosed injury? Monday night game. CBS has him Questionable.  TIA

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13 minutes ago, sped1103 said:

Any idea what's the deal with his undisclosed injury? Monday night game. CBS has him Questionable.  TIA

Hard as hell getting any updates on this. I'm starting him in best ball just because I think he scores if healthy.

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CBS now saying he's good to go. Phew.

Saints' Latavius Murray: Bypasses injury report

by RotoWire Staff
(14 mins ago) Murray (undisclosed) wasn't listed on the Saints' initial Week 1 injury report, Luke Johnson of USA Today reports.

Murray missed practice and preseason Week 3 for an unknown reason, but it turned out to be a non-story in the end. Set to serve as the second piece in a backfield that employs Alvin Kamara, Murray should have a healthy dose of snaps on a weekly basis, like Mark Ingram received both of the past two seasons.

Edited by sped1103
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On 8/12/2019 at 6:44 AM, SCT said:

I love him this year and am taking him at 7.01 in mocks as rb4 because he doesn't get back to me at 8.12.  If Kamara goes down, you got a league winner.  I'm getting raked over the coals in the Guice thread for trading Watson and Guice for Aaron Rodgers and Murray in redraft.  🙄

Now who's laughing?

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Quote

Latavius Murray rushed six times for 43 yards and one touchdown in the Saints' Week 1 win over the Texans.

He "added" two catches for four yards on three targets, with all three of those coming in the opening two series. Murray was getting a considerable amount of run early in this one, but the game got away from the Saints a bit, so they decided to go back to Alvin Kamara looking for big plays. Murray provided one of his own with a perfectly-blocked one-cut scamper to the end zone from 30 yards out for a touchdown. Murray's eight touches are probably on the low end of what we'll see from him most weeks. He's somewhat TD-dependent, but there's enough here to make Murray an RB2/3 headed into Week 2 at the Rams.

Sep 9, 2019, 11:01 PM ET

 

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Latavius Murray rushed 27 times for 119 yards and two touchdowns in the Saints' Week 7 win over the Bears, adding five receptions for 31 additional yards.

Murray worked as the backfield’s undisputed lead dog with Alvin Kamara (ankle) sidelined. He ran hard all afternoon, regularly breaking through first contact and falling forward for extra yards. Murray also demonstrated an enhanced pass-game floor, as Sunday marked just the ninth time in 84 career games that he caught at least five passes. The Saints are clearly comfortable handing Murray a three-down workload as long as Kamara is sidelined. It wouldn’t be surprising if they attempt to give their stud RB some extra rest in Week 8 against the Cardinals before the Saints’ Week 9 bye. Drew Brees (thumb) is tentatively expected to return in Week 10.

Oct 20, 2019, 8:15 PM ET

 

 

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Given the recent Murray breakout what are the expectations of the snap count/touch distribution after a healthy Kamara returns (presumably after the bye)...back to the early season Kamara dominance or more like the Ingram/Kamara days of old?

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43 minutes ago, PhantomJB said:

Given the recent Murray breakout what are the expectations of the snap count/touch distribution after a healthy Kamara returns (presumably after the bye)...back to the early season Kamara dominance or more like the Ingram/Kamara days of old?

What ever anybody says could be right as nobody knows. We got 1 week with healthy kamara, murray and brees playing together and that was week 1. My guess is they start using murray as the Ingram role. Kamara getting banged up already and not even half way through the season. Saints are playing for the superbowl, not regular season stats. Kamara will be useless to them if he can't be healthy for the playoffs. That being said I have no idea. It's possible they keep the week 1 ratio but it just seems dumb for the long run.

Edited by RealReactions

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Recent "ESPN commentary" has it Kamara will only see a few touches this week vs Weak ARZ def and go into Bye to get fully healthy. 

While I agree, we don't know what will happen, this actually makes sense to me... 

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36 minutes ago, Birdie048 said:

Recent "ESPN commentary" has it Kamara will only see a few touches this week vs Weak ARZ def and go into Bye to get fully healthy. 

While I agree, we don't know what will happen, this actually makes sense to me... 

I'm sure it's obvious, but why bother putting him on the field if they're concerned about injury?  

I can see using him if they're losing and need the spark. But I don't expect that to happen.

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8 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

I'm sure it's obvious, but why bother putting him on the field if they're concerned about injury?  

I can see using him if they're losing and need the spark. But I don't expect that to happen.

As someone who has both, I'd rather he sit thru the bye. Or I will have to activate AK and cut a player to make room.

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25 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

Best two-week wonder in a Fantasy season - ever?

Billy Volek won me a fantasy playoff in the early 00s.

I wish I knew how touches will be split for the rest of the season after the two big weeks from Murray. 

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Latavius Murray rushed 21 times for 102 yards and a touchdown in the Saints' Week 8 win over the Cardinals, adding nine receptions for 55 additional yards and another score as a receiver.

Murray scored an eight-yard touchdown on the ground that featured some tough running and also found the end zone for the first time in his career as a receiver on a well-executed option route from 15-yards out. He once again worked as the offense’s undisputed lead back with Alvin Kamara (ankle) sidelined. Still, Kamara has until Week 10 to get right since the Saints have a Week 9 bye. The good news is that Murray could provide mid-level FLEX value now that Drew Brees is back in action.

 

Edited by The Frankman
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Latavius Murray handled seven carries for 64 yards and a touchdown in the Saints' Week 12 win over the Panthers.

Murray got off to a hot start, scoring on a 26-yard run on the opening drive of the game. In fact, it was the Saints first opening-drive touchdown this season, a wild statement for a 9-2 football team. The Saints then seemed to rely on Alvin Kamara in the second half, as the primary back recorded 20 total touches compared to Murray's nine.

 

Edited by The Frankman

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Latavius Murray rushed seven times for 69 yards and caught 2-of-3 targets for 25 yards in the Saints' Week 14 loss to the 49ers.

Murray was out-touched 17-9 by Alvin Kamara, but Murray more than doubled Kamara up in yards 94-43 while neither found the end zone. Murray's touches have been all over the place since Kamara's return from an ankle injury, and he remains nothing more than a low-floor handcuff who is an RB1 any time Kamara is hurt.

 

Edited by The Frankman

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