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If they use him properly I would put him 3rd, and very close to Graham

Would you trade Kelce straight up for Graham or anyone else?

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I have to choose between him & Julius next year as a keeper. :shrug:

My decision is Kelce or Olsen in a contract league. Right now I probably only have room to give a 1 year deal but I'm torn.

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I have to choose between him & Julius next year as a keeper. :shrug:

My decision is Kelce or Olsen in a contract league. Right now I probably only have room to give a 1 year deal but I'm torn.

I like Kelce in that matchup.

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If they use him properly I would put him 3rd, and very close to Graham

Would you trade Kelce straight up for Graham or anyone else?

I said close to Graham so I would need something else. Gronk obviously no. Everyone else yes. Although if I owned Julius I might try to make him give me extra, but if push came to shove I would do it straight up

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I have to choose between him & Julius next year as a keeper. :shrug:

Trade Julius

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Wow. I'm a bit taken back on the views of Kelce. It's not that I don't like him but I don't see putting him right there with Jimmy Graham and Julius Thomas. He was the #9 TE in my league and his scoring wasn't very consistent. I see him as a decent tier 2 TE but I don't see him near the top tier.

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I think it shows a couple things. First, the talent at tight end. Second how impressive he was for his 1st year on the field.

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Wow. I'm a bit taken back on the views of Kelce. It's not that I don't like him but I don't see putting him right there with Jimmy Graham and Julius Thomas. He was the #9 TE in my league and his scoring wasn't very consistent. I see him as a decent tier 2 TE but I don't see him near the top tier.

I think most people here are looking at the long term... and I'd have to put Kelce there. Maybe a guy like Olsen/Bennett outproduces him next year, but in three years I think Kelce is definitely in that top tier.

Of course, if he gets a QB with any kind of arm it would help. Alex Smith is horrible. I'd be interested to see Kelce's reception chart, my guess is 50% of what he caught was within 8 yards of the line of scrimmage, and most of that right in the middle.

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brohans i am interested to see what the old exploding burrito does this upcoming season i think he will have a break out season you might even say and explosive season take that to the burrito bank bromigos

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Projecting out a sample of games for a full season is definitely flawed but if you take Kelce's final month this season and project out to 16 games they come to:

92-1,136-4

The TDs are low but the receptions and yardage are elite at the TE position. Again, I'm not saying that's what people should project him for in 2015 but that is the type of talent and potential he has. For me, it all comes down to whether Reid is going to utilize him properly or not. In the last month he finally did more of it.

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Projecting out a sample of games for a full season is definitely flawed but if you take Kelce's final month this season and project out to 16 games they come to:

92-1,136-4

The TDs are low but the receptions and yardage are elite at the TE position. Again, I'm not saying that's what people should project him for in 2015 but that is the type of talent and potential he has. For me, it all comes down to whether Reid is going to utilize him properly or not. In the last month he finally did more of it.

IMO that is a dangerous projection. Too small of a sample size to select and I don't see what has changed that would make someone want to choose the last 4 games to jump off of. I do like Kelce. I think he benefits from Alex Smith who throws the short pass. The WR group could look a lot different next year and whether that helps or hurts, who knows. If you use his last 8 games his projections would be 70-886-2. Still nice numbers and probably closer to what someone could hope for in my mind.

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Projecting out a sample of games for a full season is definitely flawed but if you take Kelce's final month this season and project out to 16 games they come to:

92-1,136-4

The TDs are low but the receptions and yardage are elite at the TE position. Again, I'm not saying that's what people should project him for in 2015 but that is the type of talent and potential he has. For me, it all comes down to whether Reid is going to utilize him properly or not. In the last month he finally did more of it.

IMO that is a dangerous projection. Too small of a sample size to select and I don't see what has changed that would make someone want to choose the last 4 games to jump off of. I do like Kelce. I think he benefits from Alex Smith who throws the short pass. The WR group could look a lot different next year and whether that helps or hurts, who knows. If you use his last 8 games his projections would be 70-886-2. Still nice numbers and probably closer to what someone could hope for in my mind.

That would be only 3 more catches for 24 more yards and 3 less TD's than this year. I'd have to think he would improve on this year's numbers personally.

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Projecting out a sample of games for a full season is definitely flawed but if you take Kelce's final month this season and project out to 16 games they come to:

92-1,136-4

The TDs are low but the receptions and yardage are elite at the TE position. Again, I'm not saying that's what people should project him for in 2015 but that is the type of talent and potential he has. For me, it all comes down to whether Reid is going to utilize him properly or not. In the last month he finally did more of it.

IMO that is a dangerous projection. Too small of a sample size to select and I don't see what has changed that would make someone want to choose the last 4 games to jump off of. I do like Kelce. I think he benefits from Alex Smith who throws the short pass. The WR group could look a lot different next year and whether that helps or hurts, who knows. If you use his last 8 games his projections would be 70-886-2. Still nice numbers and probably closer to what someone could hope for in my mind.

It's definitely flawed as I said and I would not use it as a projection for 2015. I selected those four games because on the surface it appeared the light bulb finally went on for Reid in terms of integrating Kelce into the offense more intelligently and consistently. But mainly I did it to display the type of potential we're talking about here. Kelce may never get there but this is the type of talent he possesses. Other than Gronk, Graham and Thomas, I'm not sure there's another TE in the league with this type of potential. Olsen is by far safer and more consistent right now but I don't think even he has Kelce's type of upside.

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Projecting out a sample of games for a full season is definitely flawed but if you take Kelce's final month this season and project out to 16 games they come to:

92-1,136-4

The TDs are low but the receptions and yardage are elite at the TE position. Again, I'm not saying that's what people should project him for in 2015 but that is the type of talent and potential he has. For me, it all comes down to whether Reid is going to utilize him properly or not. In the last month he finally did more of it.

IMO that is a dangerous projection. Too small of a sample size to select and I don't see what has changed that would make someone want to choose the last 4 games to jump off of. I do like Kelce. I think he benefits from Alex Smith who throws the short pass. The WR group could look a lot different next year and whether that helps or hurts, who knows. If you use his last 8 games his projections would be 70-886-2. Still nice numbers and probably closer to what someone could hope for in my mind.

It's definitely flawed as I said and I would not use it as a projection for 2015. I selected those four games because on the surface it appeared the light bulb finally went on for Reid in terms of integrating Kelce into the offense more intelligently and consistently. But mainly I did it to display the type of potential we're talking about here. Kelce may never get there but this is the type of talent he possesses. Other than Gronk, Graham and Thomas, I'm not sure there's another TE in the league with this type of potential. Olsen is by far safer and more consistent right now but I don't think even he has Kelce's type of upside.

I guess I'm not disagreeing. He looks pretty good in that next tier but I would put him in tier 2 as I said when I first posted as I think he is a ways from tier 1. I can't put him close to Jimmy Graham as others have been talking. To me, Gronk and Graham are the top tier. I put Thomas in his own spot below those two. Kelce belongs in that next group. I'm just saying those who were ranking him very close to Graham are setting the bar pretty high.

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Wow. I'm a bit taken back on the views of Kelce. It's not that I don't like him but I don't see putting him right there with Jimmy Graham and Julius Thomas. He was the #9 TE in my league and his scoring wasn't very consistent. I see him as a decent tier 2 TE but I don't see him near the top tier.

I think most people here are looking at the long term... and I'd have to put Kelce there. Maybe a guy like Olsen/Bennett outproduces him next year, but in three years I think Kelce is definitely in that top tier.

Of course, if he gets a QB with any kind of arm it would help. Alex Smith is horrible. I'd be interested to see Kelce's reception chart, my guess is 50% of what he caught was within 8 yards of the line of scrimmage, and most of that right in the middle.

12 receptions behind the LOS, 39 between 0-9, 13 between 10-19, and 3 receptions 20+. His average depth of target was 6.3 which is in the same range as Bennett and Julius. The only fantasy relevant TEs with a shorter aDOT were Gresham and Reed.

Most fantasy studs were between 8.5 and 10. The ones that have higher aDOT than that were mostly situational guys like Davis, Fleener and Ertz. Over the last few years the 8.5 to 10 range seems to be a sweet spot.

But Kelce has fantastic YAC ability so the primary thing we're looking for is volume, not direction or depth of targets. That being said Smith went 3 for 3 when he targeted Kelce at 20+ yards so it would be nice to see more of it.

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Projecting out a sample of games for a full season is definitely flawed but if you take Kelce's final month this season and project out to 16 games they come to:

92-1,136-4

The TDs are low but the receptions and yardage are elite at the TE position. Again, I'm not saying that's what people should project him for in 2015 but that is the type of talent and potential he has. For me, it all comes down to whether Reid is going to utilize him properly or not. In the last month he finally did more of it.

IMO that is a dangerous projection. Too small of a sample size to select and I don't see what has changed that would make someone want to choose the last 4 games to jump off of. I do like Kelce. I think he benefits from Alex Smith who throws the short pass. The WR group could look a lot different next year and whether that helps or hurts, who knows. If you use his last 8 games his projections would be 70-886-2. Still nice numbers and probably closer to what someone could hope for in my mind.

It's definitely flawed as I said and I would not use it as a projection for 2015. I selected those four games because on the surface it appeared the light bulb finally went on for Reid in terms of integrating Kelce into the offense more intelligently and consistently. But mainly I did it to display the type of potential we're talking about here. Kelce may never get there but this is the type of talent he possesses. Other than Gronk, Graham and Thomas, I'm not sure there's another TE in the league with this type of potential. Olsen is by far safer and more consistent right now but I don't think even he has Kelce's type of upside.

I guess I'm not disagreeing. He looks pretty good in that next tier but I would put him in tier 2 as I said when I first posted as I think he is a ways from tier 1. I can't put him close to Jimmy Graham as others have been talking. To me, Gronk and Graham are the top tier. I put Thomas in his own spot below those two. Kelce belongs in that next group. I'm just saying those who were ranking him very close to Graham are setting the bar pretty high.

I'm optimistic and excited where I own Kelce and a bit nervous where I own Graham or Julius.

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Projecting out a sample of games for a full season is definitely flawed but if you take Kelce's final month this season and project out to 16 games they come to:

92-1,136-4

The TDs are low but the receptions and yardage are elite at the TE position. Again, I'm not saying that's what people should project him for in 2015 but that is the type of talent and potential he has. For me, it all comes down to whether Reid is going to utilize him properly or not. In the last month he finally did more of it.

IMO that is a dangerous projection. Too small of a sample size to select and I don't see what has changed that would make someone want to choose the last 4 games to jump off of. I do like Kelce. I think he benefits from Alex Smith who throws the short pass. The WR group could look a lot different next year and whether that helps or hurts, who knows. If you use his last 8 games his projections would be 70-886-2. Still nice numbers and probably closer to what someone could hope for in my mind.

It's definitely flawed as I said and I would not use it as a projection for 2015. I selected those four games because on the surface it appeared the light bulb finally went on for Reid in terms of integrating Kelce into the offense more intelligently and consistently. But mainly I did it to display the type of potential we're talking about here. Kelce may never get there but this is the type of talent he possesses. Other than Gronk, Graham and Thomas, I'm not sure there's another TE in the league with this type of potential. Olsen is by far safer and more consistent right now but I don't think even he has Kelce's type of upside.

I guess I'm not disagreeing. He looks pretty good in that next tier but I would put him in tier 2 as I said when I first posted as I think he is a ways from tier 1. I can't put him close to Jimmy Graham as others have been talking. To me, Gronk and Graham are the top tier. I put Thomas in his own spot below those two. Kelce belongs in that next group. I'm just saying those who were ranking him very close to Graham are setting the bar pretty high.

I can't put him in the Gronk/Graham tier either. He clearly hasn't earned that. However, if you were to ask me what TE has the best chance to join that group next season I'd put Julius Thomas first and Kelce second. Thomas' biggest advantage is TD potential. If the Chiefs were to start using Kelce more in the Red Zone (which they clearly should) it's not a stretch to say Kelce's upside is higher than Thomas'.

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I owned Kelce in 2 of my 3 leagues, so I'm confident that most of my competition did not follow his progression last year. Although I'm not sold that Reid will make the logical move of increasing Kelce's role next year, Kelce's last 4-5 games DO give me confidence that his floor will be pretty high. Assuming there are good reports during training camp/preseason, I will be targeting Kelce as a value pick at TE.

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Projecting out a sample of games for a full season is definitely flawed but if you take Kelce's final month this season and project out to 16 games they come to:

92-1,136-4

The TDs are low but the receptions and yardage are elite at the TE position. Again, I'm not saying that's what people should project him for in 2015 but that is the type of talent and potential he has. For me, it all comes down to whether Reid is going to utilize him properly or not. In the last month he finally did more of it.

IMO that is a dangerous projection. Too small of a sample size to select and I don't see what has changed that would make someone want to choose the last 4 games to jump off of. I do like Kelce. I think he benefits from Alex Smith who throws the short pass. The WR group could look a lot different next year and whether that helps or hurts, who knows. If you use his last 8 games his projections would be 70-886-2. Still nice numbers and probably closer to what someone could hope for in my mind.

It's definitely flawed as I said and I would not use it as a projection for 2015. I selected those four games because on the surface it appeared the light bulb finally went on for Reid in terms of integrating Kelce into the offense more intelligently and consistently. But mainly I did it to display the type of potential we're talking about here. Kelce may never get there but this is the type of talent he possesses. Other than Gronk, Graham and Thomas, I'm not sure there's another TE in the league with this type of potential. Olsen is by far safer and more consistent right now but I don't think even he has Kelce's type of upside.

I guess I'm not disagreeing. He looks pretty good in that next tier but I would put him in tier 2 as I said when I first posted as I think he is a ways from tier 1. I can't put him close to Jimmy Graham as others have been talking. To me, Gronk and Graham are the top tier. I put Thomas in his own spot below those two. Kelce belongs in that next group. I'm just saying those who were ranking him very close to Graham are setting the bar pretty high.

I can't put him in the Gronk/Graham tier either. He clearly hasn't earned that. However, if you were to ask me what TE has the best chance to join that group next season I'd put Julius Thomas first and Kelce second. Thomas' biggest advantage is TD potential. If the Chiefs were to start using Kelce more in the Red Zone (which they clearly should) it's not a stretch to say Kelce's upside is higher than Thomas'.

I have Gronk in his own tier, then Graham in his own tier, then Julius and Kelce in the next tier. If Kelce is the main weapon in the passing game I think he jumps up to Graham's tier. That is a if though.

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Wow. I'm a bit taken back on the views of Kelce. It's not that I don't like him but I don't see putting him right there with Jimmy Graham and Julius Thomas. He was the #9 TE in my league and his scoring wasn't very consistent. I see him as a decent tier 2 TE but I don't see him near the top tier.

I think most people here are looking at the long term... and I'd have to put Kelce there. Maybe a guy like Olsen/Bennett outproduces him next year, but in three years I think Kelce is definitely in that top tier.

Of course, if he gets a QB with any kind of arm it would help. Alex Smith is horrible. I'd be interested to see Kelce's reception chart, my guess is 50% of what he caught was within 8 yards of the line of scrimmage, and most of that right in the middle.

12 receptions behind the LOS, 39 between 0-9, 13 between 10-19, and 3 receptions 20+. His average depth of target was 6.3 which is in the same range as Bennett and Julius. The only fantasy relevant TEs with a shorter aDOT were Gresham and Reed.

Most fantasy studs were between 8.5 and 10. The ones that have higher aDOT than that were mostly situational guys like Davis, Fleener and Ertz. Over the last few years the 8.5 to 10 range seems to be a sweet spot.

But Kelce has fantastic YAC ability so the primary thing we're looking for is volume, not direction or depth of targets. That being said Smith went 3 for 3 when he targeted Kelce at 20+ yards so it would be nice to see more of it.

Great breakdown and couldn't agree more.

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Red Zone usage remains key for me. He rather shockingly only got 3 targets the whole season inside the 10. Just three. True to form, he caught two of them and both of his receptions went for touchdowns. As with nearly all of his statistical metrics they screamed for more usage then he was given.

His third-down usage also demonstrates how wildly underutilized he was. He caught 21 of 26 targets on third down, converting 15 into first downs. Kelce was very clutch and productive when needed the most.

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Red Zone usage remains key for me. He rather shockingly only got 3 targets the whole season inside the 10. Just three. True to form, he caught two of them and both of his receptions went for touchdowns. As with nearly all of his statistical metrics they screamed for more usage then he was given.

His third-down usage also demonstrates how wildly underutilized he was. He caught 21 of 26 targets on third down, converting 15 into first downs. Kelce was very clutch and productive when needed the most.

Yeah, without checking it up I guess there was a lot of trick plays down there with all these backup RBs, fullbacks and Fasano getting work... When they draft a WR in one of the first couple rounds this year we should hopefully see a more traditional red zone offense and not just trick plays.

But the by far most impressive metric, and I'm sure this has been mentioned earlier in this thread, was his yards per target where he ranked number 1 in the NFL at 9.9 yds. Gronk had 8.6 yds. So even with Smith at QB, with very few other receivers for defenders to key in on, with a short aDOT, and playing his first NFL season on the field he was still amazingly effective. It's very impressive.

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The more I have analyzed and read this thread the better I feel about Kelce. I still can't mention him in the same group as Graham and Gronk like a few people were but he seems to be right up there with anyone else.

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The more I have analyzed and read this thread the better I feel about Kelce. I still can't mention him in the same group as Graham and Gronk like a few people were but he seems to be right up there with anyone else.

Seems to have a pretty high floor, It's not like they have a bunch of WRs stealing his TD targets.

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Was just offered the 2.05 rookie pick for him, TE premium league.

Have Graham, Julius, Kelce, Green and Wright, rejected it.

Good call. I wouldn't trade him for less than a mid-1st in a regular scoring league. His value is a lot higher in a TE premium. I'm a believer!

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But does he, really? I mean, let's be honest. Here's a list of TEs who have compiled 150 points or more in PPR scoring (which only corresponds to a 50/640/6 season - basically a replacement-level starting TE in most scoring systems) in 16 years of Andy Reid teams:

  • Brent Celek, 2009 (221)
  • Brent Celek, 2011 (173)
  • Chad Lewis, 2000 (160)

That's it; that's the list. Three names.

It's one of the great mysteries of the 21st-century NFL that Reid is so addicted to passing, has had some freakish athletes at WR and TE, and yet has never seemed to produce a consistent fantasy stud. I'd still be a buyer on Kelce in dynasty for the right price ... but in the (redraft) 2015 WSLs he's going as high as TE4, and IMO those who go all in on him at prices like that are just setting themselves up for disappointment.

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But does he, really? I mean, let's be honest. Here's a list of TEs who have compiled 150 points or more in PPR scoring (which only corresponds to a 50/640/6 season - basically a replacement-level starting TE in most scoring systems) in 16 years of Andy Reid teams:

  • Brent Celek, 2009 (221)
  • Brent Celek, 2011 (173)
  • Chad Lewis, 2000 (160)

That's it; that's the list. Three names.

It's one of the great mysteries of the 21st-century NFL that Reid is so addicted to passing, has had some freakish athletes at WR and TE, and yet has never seemed to produce a consistent fantasy stud. I'd still be a buyer on Kelce in dynasty for the right price ... but in the (redraft) 2015 WSLs he's going as high as TE4, and IMO those who go all in on him at prices like that are just setting themselves up for disappointment.

In my PPR league Kelce ended TE7 with 191.2 points (0,2 points behind Fleener at TE6), 67/862/5 (87 targets). And that's with the world sceaming that Kelce was underutilized and Fasano was a chump.

So there seems to be a data point missing from your list.

I guess your point is that you do not trust Andy Reid to use him more than this year. OK.

Do you think he will be used less next year? Or do you agree with me that 2014 represents his floor?

We do not know what Kelce's ceiling is in Reid's offense and there is risk there. On the other hand TE4 in above league had 233,6 points (M. Bennett).

Granted not sure I'd buy Kelce at that price (TE4) but 42 points is not exactly reaching for the sky either with Fasano gone (25/226/4 on 37 targets)

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Do you think he will be used less next year? Or do you agree with me that 2014 represents his floor?

We do not know what Kelce's ceiling is in Reid's offense and there is risk there. On the other hand TE4 in above league had 233,6 points (M. Bennett).

Granted not sure I'd buy Kelce at that price (TE4) but 42 points is not exactly reaching for the sky either with Fasano gone (25/226/4 on 37 targets)

You literally could not script a better setup than last year for a monster season out of Kelce: a healthy Charles pulling attention away from the passing game, a full season of Captain Checkdown under center, a solid offensive line, and a WR corps that couldn't catch a single touchdown pass the entire season.

And as a result of that perfect storm, Kelce finished with ... 67/862/5.

Look, I love the guy's talent. I owned him in multiple leagues in '14 and, yes, he delivered great value for his ADP, but it's not like he put owners on his back and carried them to a title. But to deliver that same value at a top-5 ADP, that's almost what he'll need to do next year. And if watching a decade and a half of the Eagles under Reid taught me anything, it's that he isn't going to blow up his whole offensive scheme just to leverage a mismatch at a receiver spot, no matter how much of a freak that receiver might be.

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I'm not arguing for perpetual stardom. In the league referenced above TE3-13 was fairly tightly grouped between 237.8 points and 159,2 points.

Thats a 40 point or so difference in either direction or one fifteen yard reception per game more or less.

Personally I think it is more likely that Kelce scores 40 points more next year than 40 points less - but that's why they play the games.

I don't participate many leagues (and not very interested in redraft - prefer auction) but recognize that there is risk by taking Kelce that high in that type of league. But you could say the same about practically anyone of TEs 4-13 (TE3 was Greg Olsen and to me he seems more likley to repeat than to drop down)

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Do you think he will be used less next year? Or do you agree with me that 2014 represents his floor?

We do not know what Kelce's ceiling is in Reid's offense and there is risk there. On the other hand TE4 in above league had 233,6 points (M. Bennett).

Granted not sure I'd buy Kelce at that price (TE4) but 42 points is not exactly reaching for the sky either with Fasano gone (25/226/4 on 37 targets)

You literally could not script a better setup than last year for a monster season out of Kelce: a healthy Charles pulling attention away from the passing game, a full season of Captain Checkdown under center, a solid offensive line, and a WR corps that couldn't catch a single touchdown pass the entire season.

And as a result of that perfect storm, Kelce finished with ... 67/862/5.

Look, I love the guy's talent. I owned him in multiple leagues in '14 and, yes, he delivered great value for his ADP, but it's not like he put owners on his back and carried them to a title. But to deliver that same value at a top-5 ADP, that's almost what he'll need to do next year. And if watching a decade and a half of the Eagles under Reid taught me anything, it's that he isn't going to blow up his whole offensive scheme just to leverage a mismatch at a receiver spot, no matter how much of a freak that receiver might be.

This might be the best post I've read in a year. Exactly right and hits al the TRUE points that need to be recognized:

-ideal situation in 2014 netted really good results but could have easily have been so much more.

-Price is now higher than ever but history shows Reid won't adjust on the fly to leverage it.

-If Reid can't find a way to maximize Jamaal Charles, how can he possibly maximize a TE. If Jimmy Graham were on this team, the result would be disappointing in relation to cost to acquire vs. payout.

The thing that will get missed but needs to be recognized in this is people who aren't stoking this hype will be criticized that we don't think he is good. That is not the case. He is and can be. But in relation to the cost and the expectation, the barrier which is Andy Reid and the way he operates almost guarantees you have to pay a top 5-6 price and almost certainly won't get what you expect.

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I don't participate many leagues (and not very interested in redraft - prefer auction) but recognize that there is risk by taking Kelce that high in that type of league. But you could say the same about practically anyone of TEs 4-13 (TE3 was Greg Olsen and to me he seems more likley to repeat than to drop down)

I'm in a contract league and I have 2 years to give to the position next year and have Kelce and Olsen. I'll try to trade one of them before our draft but if not I don't know what to do.

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@MikeClayNFL 25m

Since 2007, 4 TEs have a 50+ target season where they averaged 7.5 yards after contact. One was Travis Kelce in 2014. #RegressionAlert

He was #17 in TE targets last year. #ProgressionAlert

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@MikeClayNFL 25m

Since 2007, 4 TEs have a 50+ target season where they averaged 7.5 yards after contact. One was Travis Kelce in 2014. #RegressionAlert

He was #17 in TE targets last year. #ProgressionAlert

#andyreidalert

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The unstoppable force vs the immovable object or Alex Smith the check down king vs Andy Ried's inability to game plan a TE. I think talent will rise to the top and Kelce is going to be a force. Will surpass Jimmay for #2 dyno TE by the end of the season.

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Was just offered the 2.05 rookie pick for him, TE premium league.

Have Graham, Julius, Kelce, Green and Wright, rejected it.

Good call. I wouldn't trade him for less than a mid-1st in a regular scoring league. His value is a lot higher in a TE premium. I'm a believer!

in a TE premium league it would take 1.05 just to get me to think about it.

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Rotoworld:

Travis Kelce revealed he wasn't cleared to resume running until a month before training camp last year, and the Chiefs limited his early-season reps as part of a predetermined plan.

Kelce was coming off microfracture surgery. He revealed that Chiefs coaches and medical staff planned the limited role before unleashing Kelce late. "I still wasn't full strength last year," he said. "Which is why I'm excited about this year. Because now I get the time to take a full offseason and get my legs ready. ... I didn't really feel that comfortable on the field (in 2014)." Kelce finished as the No. 8 overall fantasy tight end and was the No. 4 tight end over the season's final five weeks.
Mar 19 - 7:56 PM

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Rotoworld:

Travis Kelce revealed he wasn't cleared to resume running until a month before training camp last year, and the Chiefs limited his early-season reps as part of a predetermined plan.

Kelce was coming off microfracture surgery. He revealed that Chiefs coaches and medical staff planned the limited role before unleashing Kelce late. "I still wasn't full strength last year," he said. "Which is why I'm excited about this year. Because now I get the time to take a full offseason and get my legs ready. ... I didn't really feel that comfortable on the field (in 2014)." Kelce finished as the No. 8 overall fantasy tight end and was the No. 4 tight end over the season's final five weeks.
Mar 19 - 7:56 PM

come eat your crow, reid haters

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come eat your crow, reid haters

Personally, I'm pretty neutral on Reid, but wth are you talking about? I don't have snap counts, but as far as utilization goes, this news blurb appears to be revisionist history. Kelce saw 87 targets on the season, 5.4 per game. Through the first four weeks of the season Kelce average 6 targets per game. So...

Also, he had 42 targets through the first 8 games. 45 in the last 8. I would go so far as to assume this is not statistically significant.

I like the cherry picked stat about the last 5 weeks of the season which were boosted by an unsustainable 79% catch rate and a rushing TD.

I like Kelce a lot, but what are people projecting for next year? I suspect he'll see between 90 and 110 targets, ranking him somewhere between 5th-12th among TEs. His catch rate will probably drop down closer to 70% (Vernon Davis was around 60% with Smith), giving him only a modest boost on last year's numbers. He and Fasano combined for 123 targets, so it's not like the sky is the limit here in KC. Bowe only got 95 targets. I'm sure they'll utilize Maclin more than that.

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come eat your crow, reid haters

I like Kelce a lot, but what are people projecting for next year? I suspect he'll see between 90 and 110 targets, ranking him somewhere between 5th-12th among TEs. His catch rate will probably drop down closer to 70% (Vernon Davis was around 60% with Smith), giving him only a modest boost on last year's numbers. He and Fasano combined for 123 targets, so it's not like the sky is the limit here in KC. Bowe only got 95 targets. I'm sure they'll utilize Maclin more than that.

Why would you expect the catch rate of Davis, the stretch the field target for the 9rs, to match or be comparable to the catch rate of Kelce, who is used in a much different capacity in the Chiefs offense? Expecting Maclin and Davis to have comparable catch rates is comprehensible I suppose, but you make a major leap when you try to determine catch rates from the position played rather than the role played in an offense.

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Rotoworld:

Travis Kelce - TE - Chiefs

Coach Andy Reid said he expects "more and better" from Travis Kelce this season.

2014 was essentially Kelce's rookie year as a knee injury wiped out his entire 2013 campaign. He was coddled, playing just 66.6 percent of the snaps and seeing 5.4 targets per game. Now that Anthony Fasano is gone and Kelce is another year removed from the injury, the beast projects to be unleashed. He has a top-two TE ceiling in 2015.

Source: Will Brinson on Twitter

Mar 24 - 10:38 AM

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the hype on him is going to make him out of reach on draft day. so many people talk about wrs who die under reid. remember the hype celek got is all im going to mention he had one legit year in 2009.

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the hype on him is going to make him out of reach on draft day. so many people talk about wrs who die under reid. remember the hype celek got is all im going to mention he had one legit year in 2009.

Could you also maybe mention how in the world Celek even compares to the player Kelce is/can/will be?

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