Ranking Backup RB's with Clear Future 3-Down Potential (1 Viewer)

There are 4-5 guys right now, with varying pedigrees and risks, who are clearly behind a proven veteran workhorse right now, but who have the potential to take over as "that guy" sooner or later.

I'm not talking about guys who are currently in a battle for the RB1 spot (Ball, etc.). Strictly guys that can be drafted a few rounds later in start-ups who can be workhorse fantasy stars in a year or three.

How heavily do you weigh how soon the opportunity could come vs. perceived talent level? Who is most talented and who benefits from the system, and does it matter?

The contenders, in no particular order:

Marcus Lattimore

-enormous injury risks, some believe his talent when healthy has been overstated

-opportunity could come sooner than the rest with Gore's age, great supporting cast, known to have insane work ethic

Bernard Pierce

-Rice still looks really good

-Pierce looks good enough that there are real concerns about a 60/40 time share, glowing camp reports

Ben Tate

-injury issues, Foster still in his prime

-has shown the goods, is a FA after this season--he doesn't have to wait out Foster

Christine Michael

-knucklehead, deep SEA backfield

-drafted high despite deep SEA backfield, obvious BPA despite lackluster college career = TALENT, could overtake Turbin earlier than expected, glowing camp reports

Bryce Brown

-knucklehead, little financial commitment from Eagles, McCoy is young and elite, possible fumble issues

-blew up when he got the chance, could get opportunity to show more under run-loving Chip Kelly.

Rank 'em up and give reasons, folks.

This is one of the most fascinating topics in dynasty right now, and could make or break start-up drafts with where these potential future fantasy dynamos are being drafted in comparison to possibly less talented rookies and veterans in better situations. Someone who makes the right choice between these guys later in a start-up has the opportunity to absolutely CRUSH their draft.

Could we add Ben Tate to this list? He is in a contract year and has shown that, when given the chance, he can produce at a high level when Foster has gone down.

To me this group is basically Bernard Pierce, Bryce Brown, and Ben Tate. I could see adding Shonn Greene at the end of the list, maybe as an addendum.

I'm not sure how much different this list is than a "best handcuffs" list.

The two seem to be pretty much the same thing?

Pulp-Free O.J. said:

Could we add Ben Tate to this list? He is in a contract year and has shown that, when given the chance, he can produce at a high level when Foster has gone down.

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Great suggestion, missed him.

Leonidas said:

To me this group is basically Bernard Pierce, Bryce Brown, and Ben Tate. I could see adding Shonn Greene at the end of the list, maybe as an addendum.

I'm not sure how much different this list is than a "best handcuffs" list.

The two seem to be pretty much the same thing?

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Shonn Greene has already gotten his shot at his own 3-down gig, for years, and was mediocre.

Handcuffs are about the right-now, filling in if a stud RB is injured.

This thread is about the future stud RB's that you might have to wait on, but that you don't have to draft in the top 6 rounds of a start-up draft, either.

In short, this is about talent, not opportunity if a current stud goes down. That's what handcuffs are about.

ConnSKINS26 said:

Leonidas said:

To me this group is basically Bernard Pierce, Bryce Brown, and Ben Tate. I could see adding Shonn Greene at the end of the list, maybe as an addendum.

I'm not sure how much different this list is than a "best handcuffs" list.

The two seem to be pretty much the same thing?

Click to expand...

Shonn Greene has already gotten his shot at his own 3-down gig, for years, and was mediocre.

Handcuffs are about the right-now, filling in if a stud RB is injured.

This thread is about the future stud RB's that you might have to wait on, but that you don't have to draft in the top 6 rounds of a start-up draft, either.

In short, this is about talent, not opportunity if a current stud goes down. That's what handcuffs are about.

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That makes sense.

Then I stick to Pierce, Tate, Brown, in that order.

Leonidas said:

ConnSKINS26 said:

Leonidas said:

To me this group is basically Bernard Pierce, Bryce Brown, and Ben Tate. I could see adding Shonn Greene at the end of the list, maybe as an addendum.

I'm not sure how much different this list is than a "best handcuffs" list.

The two seem to be pretty much the same thing?

Click to expand...

Shonn Greene has already gotten his shot at his own 3-down gig, for years, and was mediocre.

Handcuffs are about the right-now, filling in if a stud RB is injured.

This thread is about the future stud RB's that you might have to wait on, but that you don't have to draft in the top 6 rounds of a start-up draft, either.

In short, this is about talent, not opportunity if a current stud goes down. That's what handcuffs are about.

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That makes sense.Then I stick to Pierce, Tate, Brown, in that order.

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Brown vs. Tate is interesting. Tate has shown more over time but has the injury issues. But I just can't help but think that I saw more "WOW" out of Brown last year in his two huge starts then I've seen from Tate his entire career. Tate is in a notoriously RB-friendly system, which wouldn't be a big deal, and might actually be a positive, if I thought he was going to stay in Houston. But I don't think he will, and leaving is his best chance to escape Foster's shadow.

ConnSKINS26 said:

Leonidas said:

ConnSKINS26 said:

Leonidas said:

To me this group is basically Bernard Pierce, Bryce Brown, and Ben Tate. I could see adding Shonn Greene at the end of the list, maybe as an addendum.

I'm not sure how much different this list is than a "best handcuffs" list.

The two seem to be pretty much the same thing?

Click to expand...

Shonn Greene has already gotten his shot at his own 3-down gig, for years, and was mediocre.

Handcuffs are about the right-now, filling in if a stud RB is injured.

This thread is about the future stud RB's that you might have to wait on, but that you don't have to draft in the top 6 rounds of a start-up draft, either.

In short, this is about talent, not opportunity if a current stud goes down. That's what handcuffs are about.

Click to expand...

That makes sense.Then I stick to Pierce, Tate, Brown, in that order.

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Brown vs. Tate is interesting. Tate has shown more over time but has the injury issues. But I just can't help but think that I saw more "WOW" out of Brown last year in his two huge starts then I've seen from Tate his entire career. Tate is in a notoriously RB-friendly system, which wouldn't be a big deal, and might actually be a positive, if I thought he was going to stay in Houston. But I don't think he will, and leaving is his best chance to escape Foster's shadow.

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I agree. I don't have a dynasty team so I get stuck thinking just redraft...as I ponder it, I would flip and put Brown ahead of Tate. But either way Pierce is IMO the best IRL RB2 out there at this time.

If Chris Johnsons career was to end tomorrow the TItans would be calling all FA RBs with a pulse. No way are they going to hand the keys to Shonn Greene for an extended period.

ConnSKINS26 said:

There are 4-5 guys right now, with varying pedigrees and risks, who are clearly behind a proven veteran workhorse right now, but who have the potential to take over as "that guy" sooner or later.

I'm not talking about guys who are currently in a battle for the RB1 spot (Ball, etc.). Strictly guys that can be drafted a few rounds later in start-ups who can be workhorse fantasy stars in a year or three.

How heavily do you weigh how soon the opportunity could come vs. perceived talent level? Who is most talented and who benefits from the system, and does it matter?

Click to expand...

Good topic. I had three of those guys ranked in a cluster this offseason (Pierce/Brown/Michael) and thought they were a really interesting group of players.

To answer your question, I would rank them based mainly on talent. The hard part is determining who's the best. I like what Bryce did last year. He's the worst athlete of the bunch on paper, but even so he has rare speed for a 220+ back and I thought he showed good footwork and running instincts. I think he looked like a guy who can eventually start in the NFL. And you've got to remember that he's extremely raw. Barely played in college, so he's just scratching the surface of what he can do. The big obvious drawback here is that he's stuck in a bad situation with no immediate escape route. Can't see him starting before 2015 without a surprise injury or trade.

The same mostly applies to Pierce. He was a dominant RB in college and he didn't skip a beat with the transition to the NFL game. He's got deceptive elusiveness and really good vertical explosiveness. With those long strides he can get moving in a hurry and chew up yardage. Much like Brown, he has no immediate route to a starting role though. One aspect of his game that doesn't get much ink is his questionable durability. Here's a pretty negative scouting report from CFN:

13. Bernard Pierce, Temple (Jr.) 6-0, 218With great size and tremendous speed, checking in around the mid-4.4s, he has the tools and the athleticism to be an intriguing prospect. Already good-sized for an NFL back, he could get up to 230 without a problem and could define himself as a between-the-tackles workhorse – at least for a little while. He took a beating at Temple and can’t be counted on week-in-and-week-out; he’ll always, always be on the injury report and has to be closely monitored after concussion problems. Even with the concerns and with his lack of receiving skills, the potential is there to be a flash of lightning for a stretch. He could be this year’s DeMarco Murray with one or two monster games before spending time in a warm-up suit. A lot of the tools are there, but there are enough red flags to let someone else take a chance.

CFN Projection: Fourth Round

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They only ranked him as the 13th best RB in the 2012 draft. I think it's clear that they were a bit off the mark, but the durability is something that could pop up in the future. He's got kind of a leaner lower body or a RB. The bigger red flag is the concussions. One in 2011. One last season. A couple more and maybe it starts to look like a problem. I'm not rushing out to sell Pierce because I think he has the talent to be a productive starter in the league. I've got him in a bunch of leagues and I'm not looking to sell cheap. However, if there's one thing about him that gives me pause, it's that I'm not sure he could hold up to 300+ touches per season over the long haul.

As for Michael, he's the best workout specimen of the lot. Somewhere between Brown and Pierce in terms of college achievements. You would've liked to have seen better production from a player with his talent, but he never quite put it together. That's what drove down his draft stock though and made him available for a relatively cut-rate price this offseason. The early buzz out of Seattle has been tremendous and he looks like a player who's poised to vault up the charts in future seasons.

So where would I rank these players? I think it's difficult to split them up. If I had to take a guess right this second, I think I'd actually rank Michael first with Brown and Pierce in a close battle for the second spot. It's a cop out answer, but I think all three of these guys are buys right now in dynasty leagues based on their ADP/average ranking.

I am less bullish on Tate and Lattimore. Tate has the best short term outlook of any player on this list due to Foster already being hampered by injuries before the season has even begun, but I think he's less talented than the first three and he hasn't exactly been the picture of durability thus far. He seems like a guy who will end up being more of a tease than a reliable starter. However, the potential for a big season or two is still there.

I've never been the biggest Lattimore fan and I have some strong doubts about his ability to stay healthy. He's not worthless, but clearly behind the first three players on this list in my estimation. His name brand recognition is pretty high and his reputation might actually be inflated, meaning it might be hard to get him at a reduced cost if his owners are overestimating his actual worth.

Do we think of Vereen as part of this group. I think the draft spot would be similar?

Warhogs said:

Do we think of Vereen as part of this group. I think the draft spot would be similar?

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That might be more legit timeshare territory, I'm not sure. He did just go about 1.5 rounds before any of these guys though, in the start-up I'm in. Michael and Tate both just went (not to the Lynch/Foster owners) in the mid-late 7th.

If I were doing a startup dynasty right now, I would go with Tate. Next year, when he signs with someone like, the Falcons, or some other solid team with a clear need for a starting RB, his value will immediately be in the top 12 or so range, generally speaking.

I like the talent of all the other guys mentioned in the OP but the roads is more cluttered.

Three years from now, I can say us saying Michael is clearly the best of them all.

Excellent addition to the topic EBF. I agree that Tate seems less talented than Michael/Pierce/Brown and that Lattimore might be overrated based on name, even when the injury issues ARE taken into account.

msommer said:

If Chris Johnsons career was to end tomorrow the TItans would be calling all FA RBs with a pulse. No way are they going to hand the keys to Shonn Greene for an extended period.

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They signed Greene to a pretty big contract. There must be something they like about him.

I think there is a common misconception in fantasy that just because a guy performs phenomenally well as a change of pace or third down back that he would be a great starter should an injury happen to the guy in front of him. There have been countless instances over the years of great backups being given the keys after an injury and totally flopping.

One of the reasons those guys have been so great as change of pace backs is because they have the talent to be stars but not the body to hold up, or just not enough early down skills to shine all year... or whatever the reason for each guy. They are great in limited touches because that is their specialty. It's like asking a great kicker to handle punt duties - sure he's got the leg but it's a different specialty. Does that make sense?

NFL coaches and personnel are very much aware of what their own players can do - and what they have as limitations. I virtually never take handcuffs for this very reason. Especially not as high as Tate has been going the past few years... using an 8th round pick on a RB handcuff that requires an injury to MAYBE be fantasy relevant is lunancy. Take an upside guy there that doesn't need an injury to be relevant.

meyerj31 said:

I think there is a common misconception in fantasy that just because a guy performs phenomenally well as a change of pace or third down back that he would be a great starter should an injury happen to the guy in front of him. There have been countless instances over the years of great backups being given the keys after an injury and totally flopping.

One of the reasons those guys have been so great as change of pace backs is because they have the talent to be stars but not the body to hold up, or just not enough early down skills to shine all year... or whatever the reason for each guy.

NFL coaches and personnel are very much aware of what their own players can do - and what they have as limitations. I virtually never take handcuffs for this very reason. Especially not as high as Tate has been going the past few years... using an 8th round pick on a RB handcuff that requires an injury to MAYBE be fantasy relevant is lunancy. Take an upside guy there that doesn't need an injury to be relevant.

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This is all very true, but not what the topic is really about.

ConnSKINS26 said:

meyerj31 said:

I think there is a common misconception in fantasy that just because a guy performs phenomenally well as a change of pace or third down back that he would be a great starter should an injury happen to the guy in front of him. There have been countless instances over the years of great backups being given the keys after an injury and totally flopping.

One of the reasons those guys have been so great as change of pace backs is because they have the talent to be stars but not the body to hold up, or just not enough early down skills to shine all year... or whatever the reason for each guy.

NFL coaches and personnel are very much aware of what their own players can do - and what they have as limitations. I virtually never take handcuffs for this very reason. Especially not as high as Tate has been going the past few years... using an 8th round pick on a RB handcuff that requires an injury to MAYBE be fantasy relevant is lunancy. Take an upside guy there that doesn't need an injury to be relevant.

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This is all very true, but not what the topic is really about.

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What do you mean? This is exactly what the thread is about. People see these names and rush out to get them earlier in drafts. I'm saying that's not a wise decision and you shouldn't be drafting change of pace backs much higher than their projected stats just because they've had a couple flashes of brilliance when the lead back went down.

meyerj31 said:

ConnSKINS26 said:

meyerj31 said:

I think there is a common misconception in fantasy that just because a guy performs phenomenally well as a change of pace or third down back that he would be a great starter should an injury happen to the guy in front of him. There have been countless instances over the years of great backups being given the keys after an injury and totally flopping.

One of the reasons those guys have been so great as change of pace backs is because they have the talent to be stars but not the body to hold up, or just not enough early down skills to shine all year... or whatever the reason for each guy.

NFL coaches and personnel are very much aware of what their own players can do - and what they have as limitations. I virtually never take handcuffs for this very reason. Especially not as high as Tate has been going the past few years... using an 8th round pick on a RB handcuff that requires an injury to MAYBE be fantasy relevant is lunancy. Take an upside guy there that doesn't need an injury to be relevant.

Click to expand...

This is all very true, but not what the topic is really about.

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What do you mean? This is exactly what the thread is about. People see these names and rush out to get them earlier in drafts. I'm saying that's not a wise decision and you shouldn't be drafting change of pace backs much higher than their projected stats just because they've had a couple flashes of brilliance when the lead back went down.

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lol I started the thread, I think I know what it's about. This is for possible future workhorses in dynasty, not re-draft handcuffs. Has nothing to do with the lead back going down due to injury, not necessarily. See my post above.

Somehow I ended up with 4 of the 5 in a startup. (Missed Michael by 2 picks and got Ingram instead).

I think Lattimore is the only one really overvalued right now. You can assume he'll be a future starter, but he's the only one where you have to question how effective he'll be.

I'd rank it Michael, Pierce, Brown, Tate, Lattimore right now.

Ryan Williams is a similar guy but probably he'd rank behind all 5 of those guys on everyone's list.