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Not with a 10 foot pole. Stud Edition (1 Viewer)

rizzler

rizzler

Footballguy
I know similar threads exist - But this is a Solo venture into a SINGLE player within the top say, 50 players, that you would NOT touch for one of many reasons.

I know the purpose of fantasy is to find value in any player, but most of us have that ONE guy that just will never see out roster.

Me: Cam Newton

I don't mind him. Think he's a freakish athlete.

Thing is, his weapons are tame, I dont like his attitude, and on top of it, a GM that squirreled the issue of if he was their main man...

Im not buying Cam Newton, at all this season. Someone else might slap me silly with him, and that's cool. Going w my gut

 
I don't really take anyone off my board, but if forced to exile one top 50 player, I'd say MJD. He has a really challenging schedule and I don't know how he'll perform post-Lisfranc. I have almost all of the 3rd and 4th round RBs ranked ahead of him.

 
Looking at FFC + FFB top 50 by ADP, there isn't anybody I "won't touch". I don't think a player gets to a top 50 ADP if he has no value.

So in an attempt to answer the OP's question legitimately, I'll single out the top-50 ADP player that I would be the most-unwilling to draft at this current ADP.

Darren McFadden at 31st overall (3.07 in a 12)

Too much of gamble for me given his, uh, durability concerns

Jones-Drew is a close second, BUT assuming I can see him on the field in pre-season prior to drafting I might then be willing to take him at his ADP, so I won't single him out.

 
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didnt think MJD would be this popular.

Personally, I do have hesitations about him, but having him as an RB2 can solidify a championship if he stays healthy

 
AGreen. I do not think he is the #2 wr.

He is not as efficient, may not be his fault and the schedule is not fair.

He has talent, for sure.

 
Montee Ball. Everything I'm hearing from camp is that he's busting hard so far.

Although I imagine he'll fall out of the top 50 by the time most people draft.

 
butcher boy said:
Montee Ball. Everything I'm hearing from camp is that he's busting hard so far.

Although I imagine he'll fall out of the top 50 by the time most people draft.
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Yea, I've been in some early drafts and a lot of people have tied their RB2 bandwagon to him. They took him pretty high and/or significant money in the auction formats. I scooped up Moreno for $1 and in the 14th round multiple times. Much better money spent than $20 on Ball.

But I do love him... Wisconsin Badger homer... I just think the expectations have been way too high. Denver screams of RBBC this year.

 
meyerj31 said:
butcher boy said:
Montee Ball. Everything I'm hearing from camp is that he's busting hard so far.

Although I imagine he'll fall out of the top 50 by the time most people draft.
Click to expand...
Yea, I've been in some early drafts and a lot of people have tied their RB2 bandwagon to him. They took him pretty high and/or significant money in the auction formats. I scooped up Moreno for $1 and in the 14th round multiple times. Much better money spent than $20 on Ball.

But I do love him... Wisconsin Badger homer... I just think the expectations have been way too high. Denver screams of RBBC this year.
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Not to mention a Hillman that is supposedly bigger, better at blocking and has not lost any speed. Do not pay a lot for any of these RB's unless it shakes its way out in the preseason.

 
steveski said:
meyerj31 said:
butcher boy said:
Montee Ball. Everything I'm hearing from camp is that he's busting hard so far.

Although I imagine he'll fall out of the top 50 by the time most people draft.
Click to expand...
Yea, I've been in some early drafts and a lot of people have tied their RB2 bandwagon to him. They took him pretty high and/or significant money in the auction formats. I scooped up Moreno for $1 and in the 14th round multiple times. Much better money spent than $20 on Ball.

But I do love him... Wisconsin Badger homer... I just think the expectations have been way too high. Denver screams of RBBC this year.
Click to expand...
Not to mention a Hillman that is supposedly bigger, better at blocking and has not lost any speed. Do not pay a lot for any of these RB's unless it shakes its way out in the preseason.
Click to expand...
Ronnie Hillman is reportedly weighing 225 pounds at 5'9" at camp. At the combine Ball was 5'10" and weighed 214 pounds. But Ronnie is a 'change of pace' back...

Can he make Elway eat his words?

 
Peyton Manning. At that ADP I have concerns Denver's O-line is getting a little thin (and it's still very early). With so much value at QB several rounds later (Kaepernick, Luck, Griffin, Romo, Wilson) I don't think it's necessary to spend a late 3rd - early 4th on Peyton.

 
Broncos WRs are all overvalued

DT WR6

Welker WR14

Decker WR24

No way Denver has three WRs in the top 25 at the end of the year. One of them may perform at their ADP but impossible to say who. Odds are all three will get their production dinged more than drafters expect.

 
msommer said:
steveski said:
meyerj31 said:
butcher boy said:
Montee Ball. Everything I'm hearing from camp is that he's busting hard so far.

Although I imagine he'll fall out of the top 50 by the time most people draft.
Click to expand...
Yea, I've been in some early drafts and a lot of people have tied their RB2 bandwagon to him. They took him pretty high and/or significant money in the auction formats. I scooped up Moreno for $1 and in the 14th round multiple times. Much better money spent than $20 on Ball.

But I do love him... Wisconsin Badger homer... I just think the expectations have been way too high. Denver screams of RBBC this year.
Click to expand...
Not to mention a Hillman that is supposedly bigger, better at blocking and has not lost any speed. Do not pay a lot for any of these RB's unless it shakes its way out in the preseason.
Click to expand...
Ronnie Hillman is reportedly weighing 225 pounds at 5'9" at camp. At the combine Ball was 5'10" and weighed 214 pounds. But Ronnie is a 'change of pace' back...

Can he make Elway eat his words?

Hillman is @200 lbs, twenty pounds heavier, but not 45 pounds heavier.
Click to expand...
 
PhantomJB said:
Broncos WRs are all overvalued

DT WR6

Welker WR14

Decker WR24

No way Denver has three WRs in the top 25 at the end of the year. One of them may perform at their ADP but impossible to say who. Odds are all three will get their production dinged more than drafters expect.
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I don't think it's impossible. Welker WAY underperforms, Decker stays in the same range, and DT is in the right spot.

 
Lavachebeadsman said:
Arian Foster, Montee Ball, Marshawn Lynch. No way, no how.
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Laughable. I don't think there is any serious FF player out there that, should they be sitting there with the 50th overall selection and saw any of these guys available, wouldn't take them. Maybe there is an argument for Ball but no way, no how, stop kidding yourself that you don't pull the trigger on Lynch or Foster somewhere in the top 50.

 
Top-50ish players that someone else will definitely draft before I would consider them:

Ryan Matthews (I think Woodhead takes more third down snaps than people expect)

Wes Welker (Of the three broncos WRs, he's the one I see as over-ranked. I don't see Decker dropping below a WR2)

Mike Wallace (Never liked his game much. Rarely like WRs moving to new teams. Stormclouds...)

 
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Peyton Manning is a good one. I thought it looked like he lost arm strength from previous years and then lost a little more towards the end of last year. I just see him trying to play like yesteryear and not having the physical tools to do it anymore. It wouldn't surprise me if he throws a bunch of INT's this year

 
CJ Spiller...The guy has GREAT talent, but his situation sucks and his ADP is too high for me. Fred Jackson will have a slight impact on his numbers, rookie QB will hurt way more. Lack of quality WR threats will mean they could face more 8 in the box fronts..

 
Shutout said:
Lavachebeadsman said:
Arian Foster, Montee Ball, Marshawn Lynch. No way, no how.
Click to expand...
Laughable. I don't think there is any serious FF player out there that, should they be sitting there with the 50th overall selection and saw any of these guys available, wouldn't take them. Maybe there is an argument for Ball but no way, no how, stop kidding yourself that you don't pull the trigger on Lynch or Foster somewhere in the top 50.
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Maybe I'm misunderstanding the question. I thought it was which of the top 50 players would you not touch anywhere near their ADP. Not which of the top 50 would you not touch with the first 50 picks.

There's not a name among the top 15 I wouldn't take with the 50th pick, but aren't we going on the assumption that there's probably not a realistic chance for them to still be on the board?

 
rizzler said:
didnt think MJD would be this popular.

Personally, I do have hesitations about him, but having him as an RB2 can solidify a championship if he stays healthy
Click to expand...
I think he's getting dangerously close to that Michael Turner-esque wall. Turner had the luxury of playing on a good offense. MJD doesn't, so, if he does hit a wall he becomes worthless.

Don't get me wrong. I think he's got another decent year ahead, but I'm not sure I'm going to gamble on it. I'm turned off by recent durability, and the wall.

 
FantasyTrader said:
Shutout said:
Lavachebeadsman said:
Arian Foster, Montee Ball, Marshawn Lynch. No way, no how.
Click to expand...
Laughable. I don't think there is any serious FF player out there that, should they be sitting there with the 50th overall selection and saw any of these guys available, wouldn't take them. Maybe there is an argument for Ball but no way, no how, stop kidding yourself that you don't pull the trigger on Lynch or Foster somewhere in the top 50.
Click to expand...
I thought it was which of the top 50 players would you not touch anywhere near their ADP.
Click to expand...
I think that's the assumption.

 
We Tigers said:
I don't really take anyone off my board, but if forced to exile one top 50 player, I'd say MJD. He has a really challenging schedule and I don't know how he'll perform post-Lisfranc. I have almost all of the 3rd and 4th round RBs ranked ahead of him.
Click to expand...
I will second this! I just will not draft MJD this year unless he falls and falls and falls in our draft!

 
booda said:
CJ Spiller...The guy has GREAT talent, but his situation sucks and his ADP is too high for me. Fred Jackson will have a slight impact on his numbers, rookie QB will hurt way more. Lack of quality WR threats will mean they could face more 8 in the box fronts..
Click to expand...
What has changed since last year? A new coach? That is offset by Spiller only starting 7 games last year and now has a full season. In regards to Jackson, he couldn't have more of an impact this year than he did last year.

 
JayJay328 said:
Tom Brady
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I don't get this one at all. I understand that he lost many WR's and that one TE that did a bad thing, but Tom Brady makes his WR's and TE's year in and year out. He has always made the players around him way better than they really are. He still has Amendola and Gronk. Yes, I don't think Gronk will be out long. Those 2 right there are a great start for a HOF QB. He just doesn't need much around him to be great. Add in Vareen and Dobson and I think he will be just fine. Do I think he will be #1, definitely not, but he will finish right around his ADP, IMO.

 
ImTheScientist said:
msommer said:
Ronnie Hillman is reportedly weighing 225 pounds at 5'9" at camp. At the combine Ball was 5'10" and weighed 214 pounds. But Ronnie is a 'change of pace' back...

Can he make Elway eat his words?
Click to expand...
Where have you seen that? :link:
Click to expand...
Yeah, 225 is not right.

“(Ball) is a much bigger back. He’s like 225 pounds and I’m like 190,” Hillman said. “He’s more of a power back and I am more of a speed back who is kind of balanced.”

 
Steven Jackson. It just smells like a RBBC, and he's being drafted as an every down back. It's definately the right move to keep both backs healthy for the postseason. Falcons offense will be studly, no doubt, but I think Jackson will be on the better end of a 60/40 split which puts him quite below his ADP.

 
Shutout said:
Lavachebeadsman said:
Arian Foster, Montee Ball, Marshawn Lynch. No way, no how.
Click to expand...
Laughable. I don't think there is any serious FF player out there that, should they be sitting there with the 50th overall selection and saw any of these guys available, wouldn't take them. Maybe there is an argument for Ball but no way, no how, stop kidding yourself that you don't pull the trigger on Lynch or Foster somewhere in the top 50.
Click to expand...
Do you see that happening in any draft? No. I'm talking about at their current ADP's.

 
LuckyOne said:
Steven Jackson. It just smells like a RBBC, and he's being drafted as an every down back. It's definately the right move to keep both backs healthy for the postseason. Falcons offense will be studly, no doubt, but I think Jackson will be on the better end of a 60/40 split which puts him quite below his ADP.
Click to expand...
RBBC with who? Jacquizz Rodgers wasn't even good enough to force a 60 / 40 split in carries with last year's version of Michael Turner. Jacquizz is garbage.

 
Lavachebeadsman said:
Shutout said:
Lavachebeadsman said:
Arian Foster, Montee Ball, Marshawn Lynch. No way, no how.
Click to expand...
Laughable. I don't think there is any serious FF player out there that, should they be sitting there with the 50th overall selection and saw any of these guys available, wouldn't take them. Maybe there is an argument for Ball but no way, no how, stop kidding yourself that you don't pull the trigger on Lynch or Foster somewhere in the top 50.
Click to expand...
Do you see that happening in any draft? No. I'm talking about at their current ADP's.
Click to expand...
Maybe I can't read but the OP says which of the top 50 players would you NOT touch? It doesn't say anything about ADP. Just says would not touch.

 
booda said:
CJ Spiller...The guy has GREAT talent, but his situation sucks and his ADP is too high for me. Fred Jackson will have a slight impact on his numbers, rookie QB will hurt way more. Lack of quality WR threats will mean they could face more 8 in the box fronts..
Click to expand...
They have a LOT better WR threats than last season, and he did just fine then, right?

 
Coeur de Lion said:
LuckyOne said:
Steven Jackson. It just smells like a RBBC, and he's being drafted as an every down back. It's definately the right move to keep both backs healthy for the postseason. Falcons offense will be studly, no doubt, but I think Jackson will be on the better end of a 60/40 split which puts him quite below his ADP.
Click to expand...
RBBC with who? Jacquizz Rodgers wasn't even good enough to force a 60 / 40 split in carries with last year's version of Michael Turner. Jacquizz is garbage.
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This ^

RBBC with Steven Jackson? lolNO

 
Brady - I don't care how great he is or that he's produced with less than optimal talent, but between losing Hernandez, Welker and at best having a gimpy Gronk, I just don't see the passing game being as much of a factor as it has been in years past. If they can plus in re-treads, scrubs and rookies and pull off a regular "Brady" season, I'll have to tip my hat to Belechik.

Underrated for Me - I came in here actually wanting to put this guy as my bust, but I think MJD bounces back nicely. I thought Peterson was toast after blowing two ligaments. I wrote off Demaryus Thomas after the achilles tear. I think science in medicine and therapy really has progressed eons in the last ~5 years. On terrible teams, the guy has never below 4.2 YPC in a season (4.6 career) and has averaged right around 50 receptions a season (pro-rated using games play). Unless he's still hurt or someone else on the roster eats into his touches big-time, he's gotta be a lock for 275-300 carries and 40-50 receptions. He's proved when healthy, he will produce, even if he has garbage around him.

 
Grigs Allmoon said:
rizzler said:
didnt think MJD would be this popular.

Personally, I do have hesitations about him, but having him as an RB2 can solidify a championship if he stays healthy
Click to expand...
I think he's getting dangerously close to that Michael Turner-esque wall. Turner had the luxury of playing on a good offense. MJD doesn't, so, if he does hit a wall he becomes worthless.

Don't get me wrong. I think he's got another decent year ahead, but I'm not sure I'm going to gamble on it. I'm turned off by recent durability, and the wall.
Click to expand...
MT caught something like 8 balls in his career; if you play in any type of PPR league, MJD's receptions could add another 50+ points to his season totals. If he struggles to return from injury, I could see his rushing number fall though. I do agree that once turner lost his speed, he became just another grind it out power back (see late Jamal Lewis).

I think MJD is similar in that style. He's a tough, bulky little runner that depends on his acceleration and cutting ability to get past the line and then bowl people over. If he loses that quickness, he could have a Turner like fall. I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt he's healed.

 
Arian Foster. I really don't have a great reason and if he was available around pick number 10-12 I would still jump at the chance to draft him. I owned him last year and thought a lot of his production was based on volume and touchdowns and I think with a healthy Ben Tate around he'll decline in both. I'd rather have AP, Martin, Charles, McCoy, Calvin, Lynch, Rice, and Spiller.

I highly doubt I end up with Foster in any of my leagues.

 
Pulp-Free O.J. said:
JayJay328 said:
Tom Brady
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I don't get this one at all. I understand that he lost many WR's and that one TE that did a bad thing, but Tom Brady makes his WR's and TE's year in and year out. He has always made the players around him way better than they really are. He still has Amendola and Gronk. Yes, I don't think Gronk will be out long. Those 2 right there are a great start for a HOF QB. He just doesn't need much around him to be great. Add in Vareen and Dobson and I think he will be just fine. Do I think he will be #1, definitely not, but he will finish right around his ADP, IMO.
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36 years old with little receiver talent around to help his numbers. At all. Amendola is as good a candidate as any to miss games this season missing 22 in his 4 year career thus far. Oh and then Gronk is no guarantee to be healthy coming off his second back injury and 4th? arm issue. What's left? Rookies and unproven talent. Sounds like pre-2007 to me when Brady was a great QB, just not for FF purposes. Coming of the board with an ADP of 41 overall and QB5, no thanks. By the time I start thinking he is comparable and good value you get to the likes of Romo who is going end of 6th early 7th round. Brady won't be there so I'm not touching him with the proverbial 10 foot pole.

 
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