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WR Keenan Allen, CHI (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Sabertooth
- Start date
FavreAndAwayAnIdiot
Footballguy
Who in the hell is "Rob Pitzer" and why is his blog credible?
EDIT: 2011, pre-draft statement about AJ Green and Julio Jones:
"Having said all that, I still feel an obligation to make a concrete call. So while I can't quite rule Green or Jones out, I still wouldn't take them at the top of the first round. There were lower risk guys available and I think it's unlikely that either of them turns into the kind of WR that dramatically improves their team."
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Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Because he said in March that Keenan Allen either wouldn't be a first round pick when everyone else had him as the #1 WR. Then said that based on his comparables that Keenan Allen should go in the third round. And said that he was probably slow. Plus he wouldn't actually be able to perform as a #1 WR in the NFL.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Who in the hell is "Rob Pitzer" and why is his blog credible?
EDIT: 2011, pre-draft statement about AJ Green and Julio Jones:
"Having said all that, I still feel an obligation to make a concrete call. So while I can't quite rule Green or Jones out, I still wouldn't take them at the top of the first round. There were lower risk guys available and I think it's unlikely that either of them turns into the kind of WR that dramatically improves their team."
How I'm doing this is out there for everyone to see. And I explained at length why I struggled with those two players. There just weren't many good comps to go on. Or I wasn't sure who to consider a comp in the first place.
Figuring out why I was wrong about them has really helped move things forward in terms of understanding the role of exceptional explosion, and also what to make of tall, thin WRs (like Danario Alexander and Marlon Brown).
I know some people will cherry-pick the failures, or the remaining holes in these models (there are some) -- but I think if you look at this year's results things are looking pretty damn good. Partly because when I'm wrong about something I look to see if there have been other places where I was wrong for the same reasons and try to learn from it.
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dickey moe
Fingerpicker
Really wondering about this guy. He was drafted in the 3rd in our rookie draft but was soon dropped and no one else has picked him up. I'd have to drop either Justin Hunter or Greg Little to pick him up, though.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
He hasn't quite adjusted to the pro game yet it seems. If when Floyd gets hurt I think Allen will get a shot to take that spot. Brown and Royal aren't the prototypical guys to play that receiver position. Ajirotutu would be more likely to get in front of Allen there than Brown or Royal. Allen is also behind royal on the depth chart for returning punts. Allen did an o.k. job with punt returns in preseason while Royal was injured.
Given the tenuousness of the health of all the Charger WRs and Gates I'm pretty sure we'll see Allen get some heavy reps at some point this season.
I don't think he's worth a roster spot right now in redraft unless you've got a ton of teams or huge rosters. Pick him up when the starting Chargers' WRs start to get hurt. I figure he's a bubble guy for dynasty.
Given the tenuousness of the health of all the Charger WRs and Gates I'm pretty sure we'll see Allen get some heavy reps at some point this season.
I don't think he's worth a roster spot right now in redraft unless you've got a ton of teams or huge rosters. Pick him up when the starting Chargers' WRs start to get hurt. I figure he's a bubble guy for dynasty.
FavreAndAwayAnIdiot
Footballguy
Honestly wasn't my intent to cherry-pick failures, and until now I wasn't aware that the blog you linked to was in fact yours. I actually went back to your 2011 archive (first few posts ever in the blog) as I hoped it would explain who Rob Pitzer was so that I could get some insight. I then realized that you/Rob Pitzer was at least dedicated to football analysis, so then my next goal was to see how right you were with past predictions. At that point, knowing how Jones/Green turned out, I clicked that link and got that paragraph. It was all I needed to see.Who in the hell is "Rob Pitzer" and why is his blog credible?
EDIT: 2011, pre-draft statement about AJ Green and Julio Jones:
"Having said all that, I still feel an obligation to make a concrete call. So while I can't quite rule Green or Jones out, I still wouldn't take them at the top of the first round. There were lower risk guys available and I think it's unlikely that either of them turns into the kind of WR that dramatically improves their team."
How I'm doing this is out there for everyone to see. And I explained at length why I struggled with those two players. There just weren't many good comps to go on. Or I wasn't sure who to consider a comp in the first place.
Figuring out why I was wrong about them has really helped move things forward in terms of understanding the role of exceptional explosion, and also what to make of tall, thin WRs (like Danario Alexander and Marlon Brown).
I know some people will cherry-pick the failures, or the remaining holes in these models (there are some) -- but I think if you look at this year's results things are looking pretty damn good. Partly because when I'm wrong about something I look to see if there have been other places where I was wrong for the same reasons and try to learn from it.
That said, you may or may not be right most of the time, but I've often found that predicting everyone to fail or become mediocre is still going to give you an 80-90% accuracy rating-- which sounds great in real-world applications. Because when someone does hit it big, it doesn't skew the curve as much as predicting a bunch of players to make it when in fact very few really ever become stars in the NFL.
Anyway, I really just want to know if Allen is already failing, or if he's just a slow starter, assuming he's not the bust you predicted him to be (which I think is entirely too early to tell at this point).
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dontknowaboutme
Footballguy
I am picking him up while he is cheap, stranger things have been known to happen, why not throw a $1 out there from the FAAB?
Allen certainly doesn't appear fast, there is no question about that. Although, he was probably still hampered by his knee injury when he posted those pro day 40 times. 40 times are severely overrated in the NFL--most measurables are. Jerry Rice, Cris Carter, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin all ran 4.6 or higher as far as I know. I have always said, what is the point in measuring the 40 yard time and vertical of a guy without pads on? Why not measure what they can do with the pads on? Why not use tape to get real feedback on in game speed both with the eye-test and actual video analysis of 10-20-40-60 yard times?
Based on pure eye test, Allen does not seem overly fast but he does have decent short-area burst and agility that allows him in and out of breaks quickly. He is big and plays fearless. He is aggressive while the ball is in the air and has pretty good hands. He has been compared a couple of places to Jordy Nelson (who ran a 4.52 forty yard dash). He doesn't cost you much if he doesn't work out, . If he does well while Floyd is out, you got him cheap. Most of us are on a fantasy football forum to get ahead of the curve and beat the mainstream trends and articles.
Allen certainly doesn't appear fast, there is no question about that. Although, he was probably still hampered by his knee injury when he posted those pro day 40 times. 40 times are severely overrated in the NFL--most measurables are. Jerry Rice, Cris Carter, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin all ran 4.6 or higher as far as I know. I have always said, what is the point in measuring the 40 yard time and vertical of a guy without pads on? Why not measure what they can do with the pads on? Why not use tape to get real feedback on in game speed both with the eye-test and actual video analysis of 10-20-40-60 yard times?
Based on pure eye test, Allen does not seem overly fast but he does have decent short-area burst and agility that allows him in and out of breaks quickly. He is big and plays fearless. He is aggressive while the ball is in the air and has pretty good hands. He has been compared a couple of places to Jordy Nelson (who ran a 4.52 forty yard dash). He doesn't cost you much if he doesn't work out, . If he does well while Floyd is out, you got him cheap. Most of us are on a fantasy football forum to get ahead of the curve and beat the mainstream trends and articles.
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
Choo choo. 
Not Sleeping
Footballguy
You guys are all talking about dynasty right? Or are people actually getting excited about a rookie receiver with 3 NFL targets in redraft?
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
Eddie Royal is the guy to own.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Can/should probably merge my thread into this one (this one being the original) as I think this will be hot over the next few weeks... 
....not sure how to make that happen
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=688356
Go Keenan.......just able to pick him up again
....not sure how to make that happenhttp://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=688356
Go Keenan.......just able to pick him up again
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
I'd say that was quite the typical Floyd stat line there vs DAL: 6/5/80/0.
Does this continue trending upward?
Isn't this OAK game looking like a terrific matchup???
Does this continue trending upward?
Isn't this OAK game looking like a terrific matchup???
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Ketamine Dreams
Footballguy
Per Rotoworld:
Malcom Floyd | Wide Receiver
Team: San Diego Chargers Age / DOB: (32) / 9/8/1981 Ht / Wt: 6'5' / 225 College: Wyoming Contract: view contract details Share:
Latest News
Recent News
Chargers placed WR Malcom Floyd on injured reserve with a neck injury, ending his season.
Floyd went down in Week 2, and suffered a knee scare in the preseason. In between was his 32nd birthday. Translation, Floyd is no guarantee to be back with the Bolts in 2014 even though he's due $5.75 million through 2015. He's out of guaranteed money after this season. A one-dimensional deep threat, Floyd has never caught more than 56 passes in a season, and has long had durability issues. Oct 1 - 5:50 PM
Source: Ian Rapoport on Twitter
Malcom Floyd | Wide Receiver
Team: San Diego Chargers Age / DOB: (32) / 9/8/1981 Ht / Wt: 6'5' / 225 College: Wyoming Contract: view contract details Share:
Latest News
Recent News
Chargers placed WR Malcom Floyd on injured reserve with a neck injury, ending his season.
Floyd went down in Week 2, and suffered a knee scare in the preseason. In between was his 32nd birthday. Translation, Floyd is no guarantee to be back with the Bolts in 2014 even though he's due $5.75 million through 2015. He's out of guaranteed money after this season. A one-dimensional deep threat, Floyd has never caught more than 56 passes in a season, and has long had durability issues. Oct 1 - 5:50 PM
Source: Ian Rapoport on Twitter
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Allen will certainly have a prolonged opportunity to do something now.
Not Sleeping
Footballguy
Dammit. There goes my plan to snag Floyd for free a week or two before his return. I already dropped VBrown and am not particularly excited to pick him up again. I'm not all that excited about Allen either, but it wouldn't matter even if I was...he'll go to someone with a higher waiver priority this week. I was eyeing San Diego vs. Washington in Week 9 as my bye-week fill-in game all season, but I'm starting to think the SD wide receiver situation is fool's gold. Of Rivers' 401 yards and 3TDs this past week, 163 yards and 0 TDs were split between his 3 WRs.Per Rotoworld:
Malcom Floyd | Wide Receiver
Team: San Diego Chargers Age / DOB: (32) / 9/8/1981 Ht / Wt: 6'5' / 225 College: Wyoming Contract: view contract details Share:
Latest News
Recent News
Chargers placed WR Malcom Floyd on injured reserve with a neck injury, ending his season.
Floyd went down in Week 2, and suffered a knee scare in the preseason. In between was his 32nd birthday. Translation, Floyd is no guarantee to be back with the Bolts in 2014 even though he's due $5.75 million through 2015. He's out of guaranteed money after this season. A one-dimensional deep threat, Floyd has never caught more than 56 passes in a season, and has long had durability issues. Oct 1 - 5:50 PM
Source: Ian Rapoport on Twitter
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Oof....I traded Allen away a few weeks ago.
CalBear
Footballguy
Royal is in his sixth year in the league and has never had a good season or led his team in any receiving category. He's a poor man's Danny Amendola. He also has received just 5 targets in the past two weeks.
It's a choice between Brown and Allen, and the cost for Allen is less than for Brown.
I'm on the train. Allen has a real "my ball" attitude, routinely winning fights on balls in key situations where everyone knew his brother was throwing it his way. He showed some of that this week. He may not wind up being a TD machine (Gates/Woodhead take too many) but I think he's likely to lead SD WRs in receptions from this point out.
eurotrashman
Footballguy
thecardiackid
Footballguy
Is Allen going to take Floyd's place now that he's IR'd, and if so does that mean he's likely to draw the #1 CB's on a weekly basis?
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
I'd want to watch that game, if you haven't, before getting too excited, because I think he did his damage against claiborne, who's been pretty terrible, and I believe has now been benched.
CalBear
Footballguy
He might draw more coverage because he's had a good game now, but Floyd was out for this week's game too.
San Diego has a lot of weapons and it's not likely that Allen will be the main focus of defenses (or the main focus of the offense, for that matter).
Mr. Know-It-All
Footballguy
Before you leap just look back to last week when the hype was on Broyles....Allen may excel - but don't put too many eggs in that basket.
Beerguzzler
Footballguy
He took over for Floyd the minute he got hurt. He should retain that position all year and get 95+% of the offensive snaps.
As far as the defensive focus goes, he likely will get the top CB's for teams, but he won't get over the top help from safeties. He has enough talent and fantastic separation off the line to beat most CB's off the line of scrimmage.
Gates and Royal should continue to dominate the vast majority of defensive coordinators attention and safety help.
The offense is turning into a juggernaut with weapons all over the field. Gotta pick your poison. None of the weapons are in the elite range, but it's a collection of NFL caliber players all playing their role. It's fairly similar to what the Saints did in 2010 with just weapons all over the field, but no real stars aside from Gates.
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Beerguzzler
Footballguy
Broyles was misplaced hype IMO. He still looks injured and Stafford only has eyes for Megatron and Bush.
Yea because there's sooo much risk when it comes to picking up a player. People are going to drop guys like Donnie Avery to pick him up, not Calvin Johnson.
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Darryl Talley
Footballguy
Why was he drafted so high when he is slow?
Black
Footballguy
He played hurt (PCL) his senior year (maybe missed some time) and played with a horrible QB. He could have been the top WR prospect in this draft.
Guys like Matt Waldman and Greg Cosell liked him above DeAndre Hopkins in assessments this offseason. Just Google his name and see other scouting reports.
Seeing him play in limited snaps and preseason, he plays 'large' as someone stated, and he lays out for the ball. Good hands, good boundary receiver. I don't know the quality of CB he's playing against, but I think as he get settled in the offense and gets his PCL healed, he could develop into a top 20 WR next year. For this year, I would temper expectations.
socrates
Footballguy
Very well stated.
Much has been said on here about Allen's lack of vertical speed, and while I agree Allen is not a burner, he has adequate speed and good quickness for a receiver his size. I personally do not see Keenan Allen's lack of deep speed as being a bar to him having success in the NFL. Prior to his knee injury, Allen's name was being mentioned as potentially the top receiver in his draft class. He does many things extremely well. Allen has a high football IQ, he understands coverages very well. Keenan Allen has a nice combination of physical traits (big, strong, impressive catch radius, strong hands) and athleticism (able to create separation, excellent run after catch ability). The ingredients are all there for Allen to develop into a prototypical No. 1 receiver. Despite subpar QB play at Cal, Allen had tremendous success. He has that "my ball" mentality we see from many top receivers.
I agree with Black's assessment above: Allen could develop into a top 20 receiver, and he makes a top Dynasty hold (or add), but you will need to temper immediate expectations.
Mr. Know-It-All
Footballguy
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
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LawFitz
Footballguy
Let's recap here now that Malcom Floyd is officially out of the picture for 2013, which IMO is very big news.
Combined Floyd and Allen stats this season -
vs. Hou - 98% of snaps, 5 tgt, 1 rec, 47 yds (all Floyd)
@ Phi - 96% snaps, 9 tgt, 7 rec, 136 yds (Floyd hurt after posting 5/102 on 53% of snaps)
@ Ten - 83% snaps, 1 tgt, 1 rec, -4 yds
vs. Dal - 94% snaps, 6 tgt, 5 rec, 80 yds
Keenan is now the deep threat on an offense that seems very potent. If he's better than Malcom Floyd - and aside from straight line speed, I think he is in every other way - this guy is now in position to make some serious noise. Temper expectations given that he's a rookie and has a bummy knee, but skills wise and opportunity wise, this is a very sneaky situation for fantasy.
I'm on the wagon on one team with suspect WR depth, but still lurking for another where my WRs are stacked. I love that sans the Ten week, his first as an NFL starter, against a stout D, his YPR is very nice. I also think he's going to be a G/L threat as teams focus on Gates, Royal and Woodhead.
Combined Floyd and Allen stats this season -
vs. Hou - 98% of snaps, 5 tgt, 1 rec, 47 yds (all Floyd)
@ Phi - 96% snaps, 9 tgt, 7 rec, 136 yds (Floyd hurt after posting 5/102 on 53% of snaps)
@ Ten - 83% snaps, 1 tgt, 1 rec, -4 yds
vs. Dal - 94% snaps, 6 tgt, 5 rec, 80 yds
Keenan is now the deep threat on an offense that seems very potent. If he's better than Malcom Floyd - and aside from straight line speed, I think he is in every other way - this guy is now in position to make some serious noise. Temper expectations given that he's a rookie and has a bummy knee, but skills wise and opportunity wise, this is a very sneaky situation for fantasy.
I'm on the wagon on one team with suspect WR depth, but still lurking for another where my WRs are stacked. I love that sans the Ten week, his first as an NFL starter, against a stout D, his YPR is very nice. I also think he's going to be a G/L threat as teams focus on Gates, Royal and Woodhead.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
That Philly game could also be an outlier.
But that Dallas line sure seems like a standard Floyd line, very nice, especially when you throw in a TD.
This whole thing makes sense to me, the value has been there since before the year, but would it be (first) Brown, then Royal, and now Allen?
Gates remains a fixture, he's really number one isn't he. Royal/Woodhead continue to play a role, an important one. I was just thinking it would be Brown instead of Royal, but you could see in Game 1 it just wasn't happening.
The better feature might be the closing schedule:
Oak, Jax, Was, and then NYG week 14 and Oak wk 16. That all sounds very good.
5 10/6 @OAK - - - - - - 6 10/14 IND - - - - - - 7 10/20 @JAC - - - - - - 8 BYE - - - - - - - - 9 11/3 @WAS - - - - - - 10 11/10 DEN - - - - - - 11 11/17 @MIA - - - - - - 12 11/24 @KC - - - - - - 13 12/1 CIN - - - - - - 14 12/8 NYG - - - - - - 15 12/12 @DEN - - - - - - 16 12/22 OAK
Not Sleeping
Footballguy
Turns out Allen cleared waivers in my league. With Floyd on IR, I'm starting to buy into the hype. Would you guys drop Mike Williams for him? Williams is fairly heavily targeted every week, and has a track record of solid (but not spectacular) production, but I'm worried about Tampa Bay calling it quits soon and of course worried about the QB situation there.
Based on this thread, Allen seems like the better WR3/WR4 for ROS. How about this week? Is anyone daring to actually start him against Oakland?
Based on this thread, Allen seems like the better WR3/WR4 for ROS. How about this week? Is anyone daring to actually start him against Oakland?
LawFitz
Footballguy
Watch the game rewind and you'll be even more impressed. Several of the catches he made weren't easy at all AND the sixth target was to him in the end zone where he had his man beat, but Rivers overthrew b/c he was scrambling and going down as he threw it. A better pass and Allen's line would've been 6 for 6 for 90 and a TD, and Allen would be THE hot waiver pickup right now. Instead everyone's still snoozing on him. Take it fwiw.
mere blitzianity
Footballguy
much appreciated! I just picked him up in a dynasty league and feel good about his future
Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
I'm aboard this hype train. Always did like Keenan Allen, ever since that photo of him wearing a Raiders hat got around the innernets. He's a Raider fan, well alright son! Welcome home to the black hole this Sunday Night. I got a feeling he's going to bring something special for the friends and fam. Choo choo!
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I grabbed a couple tickets on this train after last weekend. KA has a golden opp for a rookie. WR1 and WR2 are done for the season. Eddie Royal is not a WR1 on any level, Vincent Brown is a short route guy in this offense right now...enter Keenan Allen to save the day. This rookie is finding himself, he catches about everything thrown his way, he is getting more targets. He still won't be balls to the wall this year but I can see some solid production the more he works with Rivers.
He could easily start putting up box scores like 5/80/TD, 6/90, 5/70/TD...have you seen the San Diego schedule? It's pretty soft and they are going to be in a lot of 30-24 type contests so there will be plenty of passing TDs to go around. His snap count is almost the tops of all the WRs right now, he is on the field most of the time.
Get on board because you could do worse out of your WR5 slots at the end of the bench.
He could easily start putting up box scores like 5/80/TD, 6/90, 5/70/TD...have you seen the San Diego schedule? It's pretty soft and they are going to be in a lot of 30-24 type contests so there will be plenty of passing TDs to go around. His snap count is almost the tops of all the WRs right now, he is on the field most of the time.
Get on board because you could do worse out of your WR5 slots at the end of the bench.
That guy Marquez colston isn't a burner by any means either and he's pretty good. This other guy...can't remember his name...anguine balding? Something like that ..he's also not that fast and also kinda sorta good.
I'm starting Allen over bowe this week. Opportunity is there in a great offense with a great qb that isn't afraid to sling the ball and a great matchup...count me in.
If he goose eggs me it won't be much worse than what bowe would do for me most weeks lol
I'm starting Allen over bowe this week. Opportunity is there in a great offense with a great qb that isn't afraid to sling the ball and a great matchup...count me in.
If he goose eggs me it won't be much worse than what bowe would do for me most weeks lol
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
On board in my deeper league.
Yeah I was thinking this too, since he wasn't even on ESPN's waiver pickups list, which normally has the most obvious options. It ended up being a perfect stat line - enough to give us an indication that there might be something there in the second half of the season, but not good enough (around 13 pts in PPR) that he would be a hot WW pickup, especially since he had done nothing in the first three weeks so it probably seemed like an outlier if you were just scanning numbers. A TD would have brought far more attention this week.
