False Start
Footballguy
That is one way to look at it. Since this is your first year watching football you will understand it over time.
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WR Keenan Allen, CHI (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Sabertooth
- Start date
Tau837
Footballguy
See this post.
Aside from that, Allen had 101 targets in the regular season last year. Are you saying you can't see him getting that many or more targets again?
Let's say Floyd remains healthy (which he hasn't done since 2009). Let's say Green emerges (though it is the same coaching staff who didn't choose to use him more last season). Let's say they continue to emphasize the run game as they did late last season. I think there is a good chance all of that happens.
In that case, where would you put the over/under on Allen's targets? I think he is a lock for more than 101 targets if he stays healthy. And that means he can put up similar or better numbers.
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zamboni
Footballguy
I think Allen is being undervalued because he's not a "sexy" pick. Not oversized, not overly fast, but still manages to get open and catch the ball.
I see a lot of "look at Michael Clayton or Mike Williams" comments, and yes, the question of whether he can do it again in year 2 is relevant. But he strikes me as a hard worker with a good QB where they have great chemistry.
I see a lot of "look at Michael Clayton or Mike Williams" comments, and yes, the question of whether he can do it again in year 2 is relevant. But he strikes me as a hard worker with a good QB where they have great chemistry.
steveski
Footballguy
Thanks for your quality input, as usual. Glad you're here and a part of this community.
Good post that you linked. I do think he will get about the same amount of targets as last year or a little more since he will have that extra 1.5 games . But yes, I do think Floyd will be eating into his targets some and I do think Green will be eating into his TDs. I think Allen's points per target is unusually high and I don't think it's because he's an unusual talent. I think it's just the result of a small sample size and a few games where he was barely targeted at all during the game except in the redzone. I also think those few games greatly skews his point total.
He really didn't play the first few weeks (wasn't part of the game plan at least), So I think the fact that he'll play a full 16 games and the fact that they will run the ball more and will have Floyd/Green to throw to will balance out his targets. Even if we expect an increase in targets/receptions, I do not see an increase in his TDs as I think those 3 weeks where he was basically only used as a redzone option won't be there anymore.
So if I expect his targets to go up to 125, that would put him at 85 catches for 1250 yards. Is that an optimistic enough assumption? If his TDs stay the same at 8 then his points would be 173 in a standard league which is WR12 last year. He's coming off the board as WR11, so pretty close. Since my targets/receptions are optimistic as well as his almost league leading reception % staying the same is also optimistic, what am I missing here? Do people expect a lot more TD's? Because if not, he's coming off the board 1 spot earlier than he should be given my optimistic estimation.
BoltNlava
Footballguy
Rivers hits his open receivers. The sad fact is he has not had many true talented wr#1's in his Charger career. He has one now and had one in Vjax. Talent is talent. Rivers has talent and so does Allen. I see great things in store if a talented #2 gets added. Floyd isn't it.
steveski
Footballguy
True. But I also could see Green becoming similar to what Gates once was. That would give him 2 good receiving options. Would be nice for Rivers.
And I'm not saying I hate Allen. I just said that I'm probably using him as my keeper in one league so I obviously am hoping he does well. I just feel like his ADP is pretty high right now and it's not like he's some value pick. He's not a bad pick, but far from a steal like I see some of the later round WR's. He's a really well rounded WR and he'll be a good WR for a long time. I just don't think he has much head room given his ADP.
I'm in major agreement with the general sentiment here.
My projections have him at 80/1100/7 (tend to be conservative with TD's) which puts him in a very large group of high-end WR2's including a boatload of guys who may perform as a WR1 in any given week but will likely end up WR10-20 overall. This includes Garcon, VJax, R.White (inj risk), L. Fitz, A. Johnson etc.
At a current ADP of WR11 (FFC), K. Allen is being drafted at the top of this tier yet there is nothing compelling to pick him at 3.10 vs. waiting almost a round to get, say, Andre Johnson at 4.08. Obviously this is the essence of tier-based drafting.
Nothing about either K. Allen's talent, red zone ability or the SD passing game would seem to indicate he belongs in the top 10 tier. Would love to see a compelling argument otherwise. Meantime I'll pass at Allen's current ADP for similar performance later.
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
I'm facing the same decision and I'm going with Allen too. I just think he has a better chance of becoming the focal point of the offense, while Bell has a lot of other talented options around him to take touches away.
steveski
Footballguy
I agree. Only issue is that I'm also sitting at the 12 spot and starting off WR/WR is very tempting. Would rather have a RB being kept instead of a WR, but it's hard to pass up on Allen's value for an 8th...even if I do think his ADP really should be in the 4th/5th round
Tau837
Footballguy
I disagree about Floyd, who has long been underappreciated, even by San Diego fans. When Floyd has been healthy over the years, he has been an excellent WR2. His aggregate numbers haven't been impressive because he has been injured a lot and because the Chargers #2 WR has typically been their #4 target, behind Gates, at least one RB, and the #1 WR.
Consider his PFF ratings going back to 2008:
2008 - +8.8 - WR#13 in 13 games
2009 - +16.9 - WR#7 in 16 games
2010 - +9.9 - WR#6 in 11 games
2011 - +14.2 - WR#8 in 12 games
2012 - +10.7 - WR#22 in 14 games
2013 - +3.6 - WR#55 in 2 games
PFF's rating is a cumulative metric, so to have been consistently high in their ratings is impressive, given that he has typically missed games every season. And I believe Floyd has typically ranked favorably in other advanced stats (e.g., yards per target).
Floyd is a veteran who has been with the Chargers since 2004, Rivers' rookie year, and he and Rivers definitely have chemistry. If he stays healthy this year, he is a massive upgrade on what they had after Allen last season.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
I would like Floyd alot more if they were still in Norvs offense, but thank god they are not
rjv
Footballguy
Was debating in a 3 player keeper, no penaltys must keep 3, keeping Foster over Allen in a PPR but decided keeping Marshal, Allen and AJ Green so Im solidified at my WR and Flex position for several years. Reading all this information from you guys made my decision much more sound.
False Start
Footballguy
Thank you. I offer a lot of opinions, stats and otherwise. #1 WRs get theirs, a lot of the passing game goes through the #1 WR on the team. Like I said, your way is one way to look at it and as you watch more football you will understand how little effect a TE not named Gronk or Graham has on a #1 WR.
steveski
Footballguy
"#1 WR's get theirs" Once again, quality analysis. Where would we be without you?
I really wish we could vote to ban users.
False Start
Footballguy
Do #1 WRs not get theirs? Does Calvin not get fed? Dez? Green? How about D Thomas, Marshall? Andre Johnson? Do they get fed? How about Keenan, is it possible the Chargers will throw to their #1 WR a lot? Did something I say bother you? Who is to say people wouldnt vote to ban you. What is your grief man, just said that is one way to look at it, bad day?
steveski
Footballguy
How about the #1 on Buffalo or Carolina last year?
Maybe we'd have a little better luck digging a little deeper than just ranking guys on based on where they are on their teams depth chart.
And yes you did say something to bother me. You came in here and started insulting me right away while everyone else was having a discussion about a player. "Since this is your first year watching football you'll understand over time" I played football for 8 years. Now just go on your way and I'll do the same. I already fixed the problem of having to see your posts so we wont have any more issues.
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False Start
Footballguy
Clearly Keenan Allen was better than anything Carolina or Buffalo had. Is this a discussion? How did I insult you? I did not do anything to insult you. I said your way is one way of looking at it and you will understand as you watch more football. I hope that didnt offend you? You seemed to start talking snarky about my contributions first.
Clearly as you watch more football you will understand why your comparison of Buffalos and Carolinas situation to San Diegos is representative of someone new to watching football, football gets new fans every day. My apologies if you are not new to football and I just assumed. Sorry if that offended you, your comments just led me to assume, sorry again.
I'm gonna stop engaging discussion with you, you seem like you are having a bad day. Hope it gets better. Football season is only 35 days away, so thats good news.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Can unpack the bolded part? Why would anyone come to that conclusion?
Also, if you are throwing out Floyd.... Harvin and Crabtree are #1 receivers in offenses that struggle to get 3,400yrds passing per season. Rivers has averaged about ~4,400yrds passing yards over the four years. I'm not saying Rivers/Allen are far superior talents than those other QB/WR combos but the size of the statistical pie being sliced has a lot to do with it.
Beerguzzler
Footballguy
All I can say is that Allen has looked fantastic at training camp. He is the perfect WR for this quick hitting, short passing offense.
The inclusion of Green and Floyd in the offense is only going to help Allen. Last season teams started to adjust and roll coverage to Allen later in the season. Allen was still able to beat it most of the time. Green's emergence started to pull the safety out of the middle since he was just destroying teams up the seam. Expect Green to continue to clear out the middle of the field for Allen crossing routes.
Now adding Floyd opposite Allen will take the offense to a different level (has also looked fantastic in training camp). He's a perfect complimentary WR and will force opposing defenses to respect his speed and size. Last season Vincent Brown was basically dead weight. Teams could line up any corner and just forget him. That won't be the case this season.
Rivers has continued to lock onto Allen in the 11 on 11 drills with a high rate of success. It's just very difficult to cover Allen off the line because he has tremendous explosion and great hand use to get off press coverage.
I really wouldn't be surprised to see Allen average about 10-12 targets a game, which would put him in the 160 target range. 100 catches really isn't out of the question (granted not likely). His 14.7 yards per catch is about what I would expect given the routes he runs. Putting him at a more realistic 85 catches on the season, that would put him at 1250 yards for the year. The 15 catch increase is a result of him not really playing the first two weeks of the season.
The TD's are tough to predict. Green has really, really been excelling in the red zone this offseason and during training camp. They want to make him a focal point and you can't blame them considering his 6'6 frame and speed profile. Floyd will also get significant red zone looks due to his size and chemistry with Rivers.
Now the good news is that the Chargers got to the end zone a ton last season. They just had to settle for FG's way too often. There will be plenty of opportunities for TD's, I'm just not sure if Allen will be the first read, so I would temper my TD expectations.
85 receptions, 14.7 ypc, 1250 yards, 7 TD.
The inclusion of Green and Floyd in the offense is only going to help Allen. Last season teams started to adjust and roll coverage to Allen later in the season. Allen was still able to beat it most of the time. Green's emergence started to pull the safety out of the middle since he was just destroying teams up the seam. Expect Green to continue to clear out the middle of the field for Allen crossing routes.
Now adding Floyd opposite Allen will take the offense to a different level (has also looked fantastic in training camp). He's a perfect complimentary WR and will force opposing defenses to respect his speed and size. Last season Vincent Brown was basically dead weight. Teams could line up any corner and just forget him. That won't be the case this season.
Rivers has continued to lock onto Allen in the 11 on 11 drills with a high rate of success. It's just very difficult to cover Allen off the line because he has tremendous explosion and great hand use to get off press coverage.
I really wouldn't be surprised to see Allen average about 10-12 targets a game, which would put him in the 160 target range. 100 catches really isn't out of the question (granted not likely). His 14.7 yards per catch is about what I would expect given the routes he runs. Putting him at a more realistic 85 catches on the season, that would put him at 1250 yards for the year. The 15 catch increase is a result of him not really playing the first two weeks of the season.
The TD's are tough to predict. Green has really, really been excelling in the red zone this offseason and during training camp. They want to make him a focal point and you can't blame them considering his 6'6 frame and speed profile. Floyd will also get significant red zone looks due to his size and chemistry with Rivers.
Now the good news is that the Chargers got to the end zone a ton last season. They just had to settle for FG's way too often. There will be plenty of opportunities for TD's, I'm just not sure if Allen will be the first read, so I would temper my TD expectations.
85 receptions, 14.7 ypc, 1250 yards, 7 TD.
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steveski
Footballguy
The first thing you said to me was: "Since this is your first year watching football you will understand it over time." Since I never said it was my first year of watching football and since I've been a member of this forum for 2 years...I think it's a pretty fair assumption that you're insulting me. Now you're trying to twist it and say that I'm attacking you? We aren't in court here. You know what you were trying to do and I know what you were trying to do, so why are we discussing this? Not only do you attack and insult someone you know nothing about for no reason, but you try to twist it around afterwards and act like you're the victim.
Can you at least post something about the players here? You go from insulting me about it being my first year of watching football to using your reasoning of #1 WR's on teams "get theirs". There are 32 teams in the NFL and we're discussing why his ADP is 11th. That means there are 21 other #1 WR's in the NFL that "get theirs" but are ranked below him.
How is what I posted less knowledgeable about football than "#1 WRs get theirs"? I'm not even embellishing your words.
Mr Non Sequitur
Footballguy
I think Allen is going on the 2/3 turn in redrafts, I believe in 2015 he will not cost a 2nd round pick again. It's a little high IMO.
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False Start
Footballguy
See bolded and underlined.
On a side note, the fact some think he has gained more speed is a good thing.
need2know
Footballguy
He seems to be going mid to late third round in mocks I have seen. That seems right
I'm in a 2 keeper league with a bunch of FBGs and it looks like Allen may be there for me 2.10/3.3 and I'd like him there. The draft falls differently every year so I'm in a wait and see pattern. I'm pretty high on him this year, but he could be gone or someone better may fall. With no keepers, I don't think I would go 2nd round with him.
cstu
Footballguy
Mr Non Sequitur
Footballguy
Ditto. I owned him in almost every league last year and I absolutely reaped the benefits. I'm a fan. I just don't like the asking price. Now if he goes out there and does it again this year and we see a trend towards dominance and perennial off season top 5-10 status, sure I'll pony up the 2nd for him. I think he'll be solid this year, just don't think he can eclipse anything like he did last year.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
You would be wise to not expect much this week. He should have had a 50/50 deep ball versus Peterson but could not come down with it. Also missed on a short crossing route that was batted down at the line.
bill bates hits hard
Footballguy
Week one vs Peterson. Cmon there is an entire season left. Some people here need to watch more football
Sweetness_34
Footballguy
At least he was not Larry Fitzgerald.... 
I like Harvin as well. That being said, it's a little early to be saying Harvin is/will be better than Allen, or vice versa.
Dez Bryant, D. Thomas, Fitzgerald, etc all put up bad games. None of them faced a CB the caliber of Peterson. Does that mean Harvin was a better pick than any of them, as well? After next week (Sherman), I don't see a whole lot of shutdown corners on his schedule. He's a WR, and most (all?) of them are going to be up and down; that's the nature of the position. He's a high-end WR2/low end WR1 still. Nothing's changed, in my mind. Actually, I'm happy to see he got 9 targets. That's a good sign, IMO.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
LawFitz
Footballguy
Been thinking Harvin would be better than Allen all offseason, health permitting. Better player on a better offense with similar (or more) touches, especially if you include the return game. On a PPG basis, it's been Harvin all the way. If you want to downgrade Harvin for health concerns, fine, but otherwise, it's a no brainer for me. And I really like Keenan Allen.
[SIZE=14.3999996185303px]It's never too early to make a call. But often, it's too late.
[/SIZE][SIZE=14.3999996185303px] [/SIZE]
IheartGuinness
Footballguy
I think Allen can be productive this week. Yes, it's Seattle. But since Sherman doesn't shadow any one player, it's possible to still accumulate decent stats. Despite the rough outing for their offense, the Packers' numbers one and two receivers both managed to slog their way to double digits in a PPR league. Seattle's secondary is also a little dinged up. Nothing too drastic, but it's something. Then there's the fact that Seattle isn't quite the same team away from that obnoxious stadium of theirs. I still think they'll win convincingly, and I certainly don't expect Allen to set the world on fire, but I could see six receptions for about seventy yards, provided they're smart enough to shift him away from General Sherman's area of the field.
I saw thats what GB did with J Nelson vs Seattle week 1 but collectively Seattle defense just nasty. At this point, I think its wise to bench all players vs Seattle until we see something different.
LawFitz
Footballguy
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
That's silly. I think you have to pick your matchups carefully. I'd be hesitant to start ANY QB against them, but really good/great WRs usually gets theirs against Seattle. See: Andre Johnson, TY Hilton and Demaryius Thomas last year, and Cobb and Nelson last week.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
In terms of individual match ups I was more concerned this week vs. AZ than I am next vs. SEA. But I'm more concerned about the overall offense vs. SEA than I was vs. AZ. As a result, I don't see Allen doing much better vs. SEA than he did vs. AZ.
He'll be a solid start the rest of the season though. Maybe a buy at a discount guy after this next game.
He'll be a solid start the rest of the season though. Maybe a buy at a discount guy after this next game.
