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WR Keenan Allen, CHI (5 Viewers)

Here is the problem. Fantasy owners are turning their noses up at guys like Keenan Allen because they expect everyone on their roster to perform like OBJ. The truth is, there is only a handful of players who offer elite production. The rest fall in the middle. I considered my receivers to be above average (Calvin Johnson, DT, Alshon, Watkins, Josh Gordon). But last year, I struggled with injuries to nearly all of my receivers at some point in the season. I made a move for Allen and landed him for Jordan Cameron and 1.10. I am not expecting him to be Megatron but having a guy like him for depth will help me sleep at night. I added Kevin White at 1.04 and now I can just sit back and relax until Josh Gordon gets his act together (could be waiting a while). The point is, DEPTH is the key to fantasy success. Studs get hurt and having a guy like Allen ready to fill in is going to be wonderful this year. He is my 22 year old insurance policy. Don't turn your nose up at a guy just because he doesn't offer top 5 value. News flash, only 5 guys actually do (OUT OF A TON OF RECEIVERS). Keenan Allen is a productive receiver who is going to receive the lion's share of targets on his team with a solid quarterback and new running back. Gates is slowing down and they didn't bring anyone else in to compete. I will take that any day for my WR2-WR3 (in my case WR 4). Fantasy owners have become so damn spoiled these days.
agreed. It all comes down to cost though. Personally, I'm more likely to take a couple guys later in the draft with home run potential to match with a couple elite options. Unless someone really falls I generally don't take wr's ranked in the 15-25 range (generally) as I'll try and grab an elite guy or two at the top and pay top dollar for the known stud and then fill in with a bunch of upside plays much later in the draft. If they don't work out (or even if they do) I work the waiver wire hard and you can always find great wr's on the wire. Always. It's how I got Allen his rookie year and ODB last year, Josh Gordon a couple years back and I could go on....

 
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Rotoworld:

Keenan Allen - WR - Chargers

Philip Rivers says he has seen more "focus and determination" from Keenan Allen this offseason.

We don't have any inside info, but Chargers beat writers have dropped subtle hints all offseason that Allen slacked on his work ethic in 2014, potentially playing a role in his second-year step back. Rivers believes Allen is now aware of how "difficult" it is to stay on top in the pros. Allen dipped from 71-1,046-8 as a rookie to 77-783-4 as a sophomore, looking more like an underneath possession receiver than dynamic playmaker. Allen is still a solid bet to bounce back.

Source: Michael Gehlken on Twitter

Jun 16 - 7:29 PM
 
To be honest, the only one who I might have considered would be Agholor because of situation. If he hadn't landed in Philly and Perriman hadn't landed in Baltimore, they wouldn't be receiving half the hype they are. I have never been a Funchess fan. I like Cameron but his concussions worry me. I own Tannehill so the points will still come. I expect by season's end Allen will be a top 10 WR.

 
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Rotoworld:

Keenan Allen has been losing weight in an effort to "play faster."

It's just the latest indication that Allen has gotten more serious about his preparation following a down sophomore campaign. Allen's weight wasn't an obvious issue in 2014, but he certainly wasn't shaking loose from defenders the way he did as a rookie. Philip Rivers recently said he's seen more "focus and determination" from Allen this offseason, and this backs that up. A target monster with sure hands and excellent route-running chops, Allen remains a prime bounce-back candidate for 2015.

Source: ESPN.com
Jun 29 - 5:03 PM
 
I expect a rebound and he has good chance of breaking 80 catches, but I'm not sold on his big-play potential. A lot of things went right for him his rookie year but I don't expect him to top those numbers (14.7 YPR and 8 TD's).

He is what he is - a possession receiver with decent size (6-2) with a good QB. Basically he's Houshmandzadeh to me.
I agree with this. He could lead the team in receptions but not necessarily in yards and might not even be in the top 3 in TDs.

 
Think I'm getting back on the train. With Gates suspended and Royal gone, he should see a big chunk of targets this season. Agree with others that he lacks big play potential, but 80-90 catches seem possible.

 
Think I'm getting back on the train. With Gates suspended and Royal gone, he should see a big chunk of targets this season. Agree with others that he lacks big play potential, but 80-90 catches seem possible.
Stevie Johnson > Royal, so at least part of your stated rationale here is negated. I'd be surprised if he had 90 catches. I think 80 is possible, but not a given.

 
Not trying to change anyone's opinion on Keenan Allen. He is what you believe he is going to be. But, if you are on the fence with this guy, here are some tweets. I'm not a Chargers fan but I live in San Diego and many are very excited about what he is going to do this season.

The Woot & Wye Show@WootandWye 6h6 hours ago
In Ep 60, @jwyeNFL & @LaurieHoresh talk Keenan Allen, both are confident the 2013 version will return (crisp route running, separation etc).

RotoViz@RotoViz Jul 6
Why The Antonio Gates Suspension Means You Should Definitely Be Targeting Keenan Allen http://dlvr.it/BRTd8S

Ali Tmak #1 NFL Fan@NFL_FanTeam_Ldr Jul 3

[NFL: San Diego Chargers] - NFLN: Keenan Allen Breaks Out Again | San Diego Chargers http://ift.tt/1epMKjr

Tom Kessenich@TomKessenich Jul 2
Keenan Allen insists he's working harder this offseason. The #Chargers need him to back that up first month w/Gates gone.

Amazon Herald@amazonherald Jun 29
Chargers WR Keenan Allen 'losing weight in order to play faster' http://ift.tt/1GLO6fZ

RotoLegends@rotolegends Jun 16
Philip Rivers says he has seen more "focus and determination" from Keenan Allen this offseason per @espn #chargers

Again, not trying to change anyone's opinion. If you don't like him, that's fine. But I have seen and heard enough positive things around here to convince me to give him a look, especially at his current ADP. Knowing what I know about last season (complacency/injury) and then hearing news about him working his tail off this offseason, seems like the perfect storm for an increase in production. The guy already has the pedigree (5 star recruit as a DB!!!) and now he has the desire to match. Sign me up at these prices.

 
I expect by season's end Allen will be a top 10 WR.
might be getting a little carried away here......?

ROOKIE: perfect storm of a season....others injured, etc....especially during the fantasy playoffs where many owners fell in love and then overpaid BIG TIME the following season....5 of his 8 TD's came in weeks 14-16....and those 5 TD's came on a combined 8 catches during those 3 weeks....if he doesn't score on some of those, he is a fantasy playoff bust instead of a darling....8 catches for 114 yards in 3 weeks.... but yeah 5 got in the zone....

SEASON 2: an average NFL WR

I'm leaning more toward season 2 from here on out.....top 10 is giving a whole new meaning to "bounce back"....

 
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I expect by season's end Allen will be a top 10 WR.
might be getting a little carried away here......?

ROOKIE: perfect storm of a season....others injured, etc....especially during the fantasy playoffs where many owners fell in love and then overpaid BIG TIME the following season....5 of his 8 TD's came in weeks 14-16....and those 5 TD's came on a combined 8 catches during those 3 weeks....if he doesn't score on some of those, he is a fantasy playoff bust instead of a darling....8 catches for 114 yards in 3 weeks.... but yeah 5 got in the zone....

SEASON 2: an average NFL WR

I'm leaning more toward season 2 from here on out.....top 10 is giving a whole new meaning to "bounce back"....
Ambitious to say the least.

 
I expect by season's end Allen will be a top 10 WR.
might be getting a little carried away here......?

ROOKIE: perfect storm of a season....others injured, etc....especially during the fantasy playoffs where many owners fell in love and then overpaid BIG TIME the following season....5 of his 8 TD's came in weeks 14-16....and those 5 TD's came on a combined 8 catches during those 3 weeks....if he doesn't score on some of those, he is a fantasy playoff bust instead of a darling....8 catches for 114 yards in 3 weeks.... but yeah 5 got in the zone....

SEASON 2: an average NFL WR

I'm leaning more toward season 2 from here on out.....top 10 is giving a whole new meaning to "bounce back"....
:goodposting:

Allen's potential hinges at least to some degree on the health of other players. If key players remain healthy, I expect the Chargers offense to look more like the second half of 2013 than the rest of McCoy's tenure. Here are those splits:

2013 (1st 8 games): 295 passing attempts, 214 rushing attempts

2013 (2nd 8 games): 249 passing attempts, 265 rushing attempts

The 2014 season isn't nearly as predictive, since the OL and RB corps was crushed by injuries. IMO McCoy prefers an offense more like the second half of 2013. Perhaps not quite to that extreme, but close.

So let's say Rivers gets 520 passing attempts. He is known for spreading the ball around, and the Chargers have a lot of good targets. If they all stay healthy, I could easily see something like this:

Rivers: 355/520 (68%) for 4350 passing yards (8.37 YPA), 31 passing TDs (6%)

Allen (16 games): 100 targets, 66/800/5

Floyd (16 games): 70 targets, 46/700/5

Johnson (16 games): 80 targets, 55/690/5

Inman (16 games): 15 targets, 10/135/1

Other WRs (16 games): 10 targets, 6/75/0

Gates (12 games): 80 targets, 55/700/6

Green (16 games): 40 targets, 25/400/3

Other TEs (16 games): 10 targets, 6/70/0


Woodhead (16 games): 70 targets, 55/550/4
Gordon (16 games): 35 targets, 23/170/1
Other RBs (16 games): 10 targets, 8/60/1

I don't think that is the kind of bounce back year people are expecting for Allen, but it is a realistic possibility. Generally speaking, I think a lot of people don't realize how good the Chargers targets are. They have 6 really good targets in Allen, Floyd, Johnson, Gates, Green, and Woodhead, and Inman and Gordon are quite good for 7th/8th best targets.

I'm not saying Allen can't do better than this, but I think top 10 WR is extremely unlikely, barring a significant amount of missed time for other targets.
 
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2013 (1st 8 games): 295 passing attempts, 214 rushing attempts

2013 (2nd 8 games): 249 passing attempts, 265 rushing attempts

?

 
Last year, the Chargers threw 573 times and 544 the year before. If you decide to take the first half of 2013 as a proxy (instead of the second half), you are looking at 295 x 2 = 590 targets. Compared to these numbers, I don't see enough evidence to go with 520. I would go with something less conservative like 540-560.

Then, Allen as the lead receiver with 100 targets (19% of the total) seems very conservative as well. Rivers doesn't spread the ball that much. Maybe you are expecting Allen to miss time? For comparison, last year he had 122 targets (21% of the total), while still missing 2 games and being injured in 2 more. His rookie year, he had 104 targets, while being a non-factor in his very first three NFL games. So I would go with something less conservative around 22-24% of targets.

550 targets x 23% = 126 targets x your catch rate of 66% = 84 receptions. Doubt that will be enough for top-10 WR, but surely not as bleak as 66 receptions for 800 yards....

 
Last year, the Chargers threw 573 times and 544 the year before. If you decide to take the first half of 2013 as a proxy (instead of the second half), you are looking at 295 x 2 = 590 targets. Compared to these numbers, I don't see enough evidence to go with 520. I would go with something less conservative like 540-560.

Then, Allen as the lead receiver with 100 targets (19% of the total) seems very conservative as well. Rivers doesn't spread the ball that much. Maybe you are expecting Allen to miss time? For comparison, last year he had 122 targets (21% of the total), while still missing 2 games and being injured in 2 more. His rookie year, he had 104 targets, while being a non-factor in his very first three NFL games. So I would go with something less conservative around 22-24% of targets.

550 targets x 23% = 126 targets x your catch rate of 66% = 84 receptions. Doubt that will be enough for top-10 WR, but surely not as bleak as 66 receptions for 800 yards....
:goodposting:

 
Last year, the Chargers threw 573 times and 544 the year before. If you decide to take the first half of 2013 as a proxy (instead of the second half), you are looking at 295 x 2 = 590 targets. Compared to these numbers, I don't see enough evidence to go with 520. I would go with something less conservative like 540-560.

Then, Allen as the lead receiver with 100 targets (19% of the total) seems very conservative as well. Rivers doesn't spread the ball that much. Maybe you are expecting Allen to miss time? For comparison, last year he had 122 targets (21% of the total), while still missing 2 games and being injured in 2 more. His rookie year, he had 104 targets, while being a non-factor in his very first three NFL games. So I would go with something less conservative around 22-24% of targets.

550 targets x 23% = 126 targets x your catch rate of 66% = 84 receptions. Doubt that will be enough for top-10 WR, but surely not as bleak as 66 receptions for 800 yards....
1. I clearly posted 16 games for Allen and for everyone else except Gates, for whom I showed 12 games. The biggest reason the projections I posted may be unrealistic is that there will be injuries, but we can't predict those.

2. As I pointed out, 2014 is not a good predictor, because the Chargers OL and running game were crushed by injuries. They played 5 centers last season and had other OL injuries, and their top 2 RBs missed significant time. That made it impossible for the Chargers to establish their running game. They were #30 in rushing yards and #31 in ypc last year; in 2013, they were #13 in rushing yards and #21 in ypc. IMO last year's passing attempts are not a valid predictor.

3. The Chargers' RB targets were down significantly in 2014 with Woodhead and Mathews combining to miss 23 games. This is one reason why Allen, a possession receiver, got a higher percentage of targets last season. In 2013, the Chargers targeted the RBs 133 times in 544 attempts (24%), compared to 109 times in 574 attempts (19%) in 2014. Woodhead is back. I expect the RB share of targets to go back up.

I could quibble with other stuff in your projection, but the rest is smaller stuff. Look, I just threw out those projections off the top of my head. I haven't spent a lot of time thinking about them yet. I will refine them at some point, and maybe I will bump Allen's targets.

But I am a Chargers fan, I have watched every Chargers game for years, and I live in San Diego and keep up with all Chargers news. Allen supporters could be right, he could finish as a top 20 or even top 10 WR. But I think the odds of that are low.

 
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2013 (1st 8 games): 295 passing attempts, 214 rushing attempts

2013 (2nd 8 games): 249 passing attempts, 265 rushing attempts

?
Do you have a question?
Your post indicated comparing 2nd half of 2013 to 1st half of 2014, but then you post the two halves of 2013.
Fixed, thanks. But the point is the same, albeit not quite as extreme as the first half of 2013:

2014 (1st 8 games): 271 passing attempts, 217 rushing attempts

Actually, comparing the last 8 games of 2013 vs. the first 8 of 2014 shows that the middle ground was exactly 260 passing attempts, which projects to the 520 I used in my projections. :thumbup:

 
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Why do you think their first 8 games of 2013 are less predictive? I'd think that's when they were more likely playing how they "wanted" to, given the entire offseason/pre-season of preparation, with the 2nd half adaptation being what they felt they had to move to be it due to injury, new identity, or just going with what's working more.

 
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Why do you think their first 8 games of 2013 are less predictive? I'd think that's when they were more likely playing how they "wanted" to, given the entire offseason/pre-season of preparation, with the 2nd half adaptation being what they felt they had to move to be it due to injury, new identity, or just going with what's working more.
1. It was McCoy's first season as a head coach. It is reasonable to think it took he and his staff some time to adjust, determine what worked, exactly how they wanted to use personnel, etc. Especially since he is such a young head coach.

2. It was the offense's first season in McCoy's system. It is reasonable to think that the players took some time to adjust. For one thing, McCoy changed the running game from a power blocking scheme to a zone blocking scheme when he arrived. That may have taken some time to gel.

3. McCoy has always stated a desire for a balanced offense.

4. The most successful stretch in McCoy's career were the last 8 games of 2013, including the 2 playoff games. In those last 6 regular season games, the Chargers went 5-1 and earned a playoff spot. During that stretch, the Chargers were #1 in the NFL in rushing attempts and #23 in passing attempts. Then they won their first playoff game on the road as they passed for 122 yards and rushed for 196 yards. In the next game, Mathews got hurt and they could not establish the running game and they lost at Denver. They didn't shift to a run heavy offense because of injuries or poor performance in the passing game. They did it by choice.

Even if McCoy didn't enter the 2013 season wanting to be as run heavy as they were late that season, I expect that success has had an impact on his thinking and philosophy. (Although it is also worth pointing out that he was the Denver OC in 2011 when Denver led the NFL in rushing.) I think we would have seen more of that balance last season if not for the OL and RB injuries.

Now the Chargers have a workhorse RB who they paid quite a bit for (3 draft picks) and who will theoretically be as good or better than Mathews but presumably healthier. And they have significantly improved their OL.

IMO it seems obvious. :shrug:

 
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Why do you think their first 8 games of 2013 are less predictive? I'd think that's when they were more likely playing how they "wanted" to, given the entire offseason/pre-season of preparation, with the 2nd half adaptation being what they felt they had to move to be it due to injury, new identity, or just going with what's working more.
1. It was McCoy's first season as a head coach. It is reasonable to think it took he and his staff some time to adjust, determine what worked, exactly how they wanted to use personnel, etc. Especially since he is such a young head coach.

2. It was the offense's first season in McCoy's system. It is reasonable to think that the players took some time to adjust. For one thing, McCoy changed the running game from a power blocking scheme to a zone blocking scheme when he arrived. That may have taken some time to gel.

3. McCoy has always stated a desire for a balanced offense.

4. The most successful stretch in McCoy's career were the last 8 games of 2013, including the 2 playoff games. In those last 6 regular season games, the Chargers went 5-1 and earned a playoff spot. During that stretch, the Chargers were #1 in the NFL in rushing attempts and #23 in passing attempts. Then they won their first playoff game on the road as they passed for 122 yards and rushed for 196 yards. In the next game, Mathews got hurt and they could not establish the running game and they lost at Denver. They didn't shift to a run heavy offense because of injuries or poor performance in the passing game. They did it by choice.

Even if McCoy didn't enter the 2013 season wanting to be as run heavy as they were late that season, I expect that success has had an impact on his thinking and philosophy. (Although it is also worth pointing out that he was the Denver OC in 2011 when Denver led the NFL in rushing.) I think we would have seen more of that balance last season if not for the OL and RB injuries.

Now the Chargers have a workhorse RB who they paid quite a bit for (3 draft picks) and who will theoretically be as good or better than Mathews but presumably healthier. And they have significantly improved their OL.

IMO it seems obvious. :shrug:
At this point, we just wait until the games are played. Looking forward to seeing how this turns out!

 
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I know everyone "is in the best shape of their life" in July, but what gets me on the bandwagon is the fact that he admittedly wasn't putting in the work needed to be the best he could, instead relying on what had always gotten him through. 3rd year, figuring things out, working hard, game slowing down type stuff, I think he will have a solid showing. Floyd wants to "try" to play one more year, Gates may not come back as the ageless wonder without peds, Stevie moving the chains, oline additions (won't call them upgrades just yet), San Diego will put up points.

 
not a big numbers guy....seems like we can get lost in those sometimes.....

realistic look at his rookie year numbers + eye ball test + talent and opportunity to me = what we saw last year......I'll say it again, I think everybody wants to take what he did for them in the playoffs his rookie year (which was help them win their leagues) and try and get that for a whole season......it ain't gonna happen.....

perfect storm rookie season with playoff darling ending, eye ball test to me sees nothing "special" about his game, his "talent" is average to slightly above average especially considering he admittedly will settle for being mediocre, and his opportunity probably has his arrow pointing down with a healthy receiving backfield, a stud RB drafted leading to more of a rushing game, healthy receiving options, and probably a pretty significant upgrade in Stevie in town.....

in a redraft....I would feel "okay" with him as my WR4.....and hope for WR3 production but I wouldn't count on it.....not sure where that means I would hope to get him or where he is going now.....but I'm not gonna chase his rookie year numbers until he shows he can do it again.....and even those numbers are a little deceiving.....

 
Is he settling for being mediocre? Has he stopped working? Have I missed something since Rivers' comments? I am going to enjoy revisitting this thread. I am the I told you so type so be ready! Lol.

 
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Last year, the Chargers threw 573 times and 544 the year before. If you decide to take the first half of 2013 as a proxy (instead of the second half), you are looking at 295 x 2 = 590 targets. Compared to these numbers, I don't see enough evidence to go with 520. I would go with something less conservative like 540-560.

Then, Allen as the lead receiver with 100 targets (19% of the total) seems very conservative as well. Rivers doesn't spread the ball that much. Maybe you are expecting Allen to miss time? For comparison, last year he had 122 targets (21% of the total), while still missing 2 games and being injured in 2 more. His rookie year, he had 104 targets, while being a non-factor in his very first three NFL games. So I would go with something less conservative around 22-24% of targets.

550 targets x 23% = 126 targets x your catch rate of 66% = 84 receptions. Doubt that will be enough for top-10 WR, but surely not as bleak as 66 receptions for 800 yards....
1. I clearly posted 16 games for Allen and for everyone else except Gates, for whom I showed 12 games. The biggest reason the projections I posted may be unrealistic is that there will be injuries, but we can't predict those.

2. As I pointed out, 2014 is not a good predictor, because the Chargers OL and running game were crushed by injuries. They played 5 centers last season and had other OL injuries, and their top 2 RBs missed significant time. That made it impossible for the Chargers to establish their running game. They were #30 in rushing yards and #31 in ypc last year; in 2013, they were #13 in rushing yards and #21 in ypc. IMO last year's passing attempts are not a valid predictor.

3. The Chargers' RB targets were down significantly in 2014 with Woodhead and Mathews combining to miss 23 games. This is one reason why Allen, a possession receiver, got a higher percentage of targets last season. In 2013, the Chargers targeted the RBs 133 times in 544 attempts (24%), compared to 109 times in 574 attempts (19%) in 2014. Woodhead is back. I expect the RB share of targets to go back up.

I could quibble with other stuff in your projection, but the rest is smaller stuff. Look, I just threw out those projections off the top of my head. I haven't spent a lot of time thinking about them yet. I will refine them at some point, and maybe I will bump Allen's targets.

But I am a Chargers fan, I have watched every Chargers game for years, and I live in San Diego and keep up with all Chargers news. Allen supporters could be right, he could finish as a top 20 or even top 10 WR. But I think the odds of that are low.
I think this is an excellent post, in the best vein of what the FBG forums can be - so thanks for the time to respond. I don't see Allen as top 10. I do expect him to squeeze into the top 20 ppg stats, but won't argue with your logic re: 520 attempts.

As you are a Chargers fan, a couple questions:

1. I wonder whether you see the bump in RB dumpoffs coming off Allen's tally or from others. Without knowing the Chargers as well, I would have guessed others, particularly the TE group and Floyd being partially replaced by Allen.

2. Spreading the ball - does Rivers really spread it that much? I look again at the target distribution of the first 13 games, when supposedly he had a healthy Allen and went his way >27% of the time.

Lastly, unrelated, how sold are you on old Danny getting back to 2013 performance? You have him at 13% of targets, double that of Gordon, which is quite material usage. Of course, he had a great 2013 campaign, but the little he played in 2014 wasn't too encouraging.

 
Is he settling for being mediocre? Has he stopped working? Have I missed something since Rivers' comments? I am going to enjoy revisitting this thread. I am the I told you so type so be ready! Lol.
he settled last year.....I would hope after disappointing that he does keeps working......actually they should all keep working and trying to get better....please tell me you aren't predicting top 10 based on "comments" in the summer.....if so your top 10 at every position is going to be very crowded.....

 
Stinkin Ref said:
georg013 said:
Is he settling for being mediocre? Has he stopped working? Have I missed something since Rivers' comments? I am going to enjoy revisitting this thread. I am the I told you so type so be ready! Lol.
he settled last year.....I would hope after disappointing that he does keeps working......actually they should all keep working and trying to get better....please tell me you aren't predicting top 10 based on "comments" in the summer.....if so your top 10 at every position is going to be very crowded.....
Going round and round here. Top 20, easy. Top 10, ambitious. I thought I posted that somewhere earlier... Do I believe top 10? No. Do I think the sky is falling and he will barely eclipse 800 yards becasue he decides to settle? Again, no. Clear?

 
Zdravko said:
Last year, the Chargers threw 573 times and 544 the year before. If you decide to take the first half of 2013 as a proxy (instead of the second half), you are looking at 295 x 2 = 590 targets. Compared to these numbers, I don't see enough evidence to go with 520. I would go with something less conservative like 540-560.

Then, Allen as the lead receiver with 100 targets (19% of the total) seems very conservative as well. Rivers doesn't spread the ball that much. Maybe you are expecting Allen to miss time? For comparison, last year he had 122 targets (21% of the total), while still missing 2 games and being injured in 2 more. His rookie year, he had 104 targets, while being a non-factor in his very first three NFL games. So I would go with something less conservative around 22-24% of targets.

550 targets x 23% = 126 targets x your catch rate of 66% = 84 receptions. Doubt that will be enough for top-10 WR, but surely not as bleak as 66 receptions for 800 yards....
1. I clearly posted 16 games for Allen and for everyone else except Gates, for whom I showed 12 games. The biggest reason the projections I posted may be unrealistic is that there will be injuries, but we can't predict those.

2. As I pointed out, 2014 is not a good predictor, because the Chargers OL and running game were crushed by injuries. They played 5 centers last season and had other OL injuries, and their top 2 RBs missed significant time. That made it impossible for the Chargers to establish their running game. They were #30 in rushing yards and #31 in ypc last year; in 2013, they were #13 in rushing yards and #21 in ypc. IMO last year's passing attempts are not a valid predictor.

3. The Chargers' RB targets were down significantly in 2014 with Woodhead and Mathews combining to miss 23 games. This is one reason why Allen, a possession receiver, got a higher percentage of targets last season. In 2013, the Chargers targeted the RBs 133 times in 544 attempts (24%), compared to 109 times in 574 attempts (19%) in 2014. Woodhead is back. I expect the RB share of targets to go back up.

I could quibble with other stuff in your projection, but the rest is smaller stuff. Look, I just threw out those projections off the top of my head. I haven't spent a lot of time thinking about them yet. I will refine them at some point, and maybe I will bump Allen's targets.

But I am a Chargers fan, I have watched every Chargers game for years, and I live in San Diego and keep up with all Chargers news. Allen supporters could be right, he could finish as a top 20 or even top 10 WR. But I think the odds of that are low.
I think this is an excellent post, in the best vein of what the FBG forums can be - so thanks for the time to respond. I don't see Allen as top 10. I do expect him to squeeze into the top 20 ppg stats, but won't argue with your logic re: 520 attempts.

As you are a Chargers fan, a couple questions:

1. I wonder whether you see the bump in RB dumpoffs coming off Allen's tally or from others. Without knowing the Chargers as well, I would have guessed others, particularly the TE group and Floyd being partially replaced by Allen.

2. Spreading the ball - does Rivers really spread it that much? I look again at the target distribution of the first 13 games, when supposedly he had a healthy Allen and went his way >27% of the time.

Lastly, unrelated, how sold are you on old Danny getting back to 2013 performance? You have him at 13% of targets, double that of Gordon, which is quite material usage. Of course, he had a great 2013 campaign, but the little he played in 2014 wasn't too encouraging.
Target distribution by position:

2013: RBs 24%, TEs 28%, WRs 47%

2014: RBs 19%, TEs 22%, WRs 58%

In 2013, Floyd only played 2 games, and Vincent Brown actually got 70 targets. :X That was presumably a factor in the RBs and TEs getting so many targets. However, it has been true for all of Rivers' career that the Chargers WRs were near the bottom of the NFL in percentage of targets. This has no doubt been mostly because of strong RB and TE targets, as Gates, Tomlinson, Tolbert, Mathews, and Woodhead have all been good targets over the years. But this is also because Rivers spreads the ball around.

As I posted before, I expect RB targets to go up. Consider that in 2013, Woodhead and Mathews combined for 121 targets. In 2014, they combined for just 16. Woodhead is back, and Gordon will hopefully be healthier than Mathews was and will capably fill that role, though he may not be as good of a receiver. Both Brown and Oliver are also solid targets, should they be needed. (We can all hope Brown isn't needed.)

Perhaps the TE distribution will be closer to 2014 level than 2013, given Gates' suspension and advancing age, but it is at least possible that Green breaks out as was expected last season. Either way, I doubt the TE target percentage will be lower than in 2014. So perhaps WR targets will split the difference between 2013 and 2014... but on fewer attempts.

Assuming full health since we cannot predict injuries, I think the WR corps will be better this season. Floyd is a known commodity and is a very good, if underrated WR. IMO Johnson is an upgrade over Royal. Inman has a year of NFL experience now and flashed late last season, and I expect him to be better than last season. Even the WR5 is improved... I don't think Jacoby Jones is a great WR, and I hope he won't need to be targeted much, but he should be better than Ajirotutu.

So to me, fewer pass attempts + higher percentage to RBs + same or greater percentage to TEs + more capable/talented WR group behind Allen = Allen performing closer to 2014 than 2013.

To your specific questions:

1. Based on my analysis above, I see some short passing shifting from WRs to RBs. And the WR who could lose the most dumpoff targets is Allen, since he is the possession receiver and had the lowest YPR of all of the WR/TEs last season.

2. With a healthy complement of players, Rivers spreads it around. I think VJax had about 21% of the targets a couple of times with Gates, Floyd, and quality RB targets, but the situations seem different. First off, VJax was a quality deep threat in addition to a quality short and medium target. Allen doesn't seem like much of a deep threat. Also, Johnson seems more talented than the WR3 on those VJax teams, and Green seems like a much better backup TE than they had on those teams. So Rivers had fewer quality options in those seasons than he seems to have entering 2015. I also think Allen's targets went up because of the loss of Woodhead and Mathews; a large amount of targets that might have gone to them went to Allen. Now those RB roles are filled again.

3. Yes, obviously from my quick projections, I expect Woodhead to be a significant factor in the passing game. That's what he does. There is no reason to believe his role will be diminished or the level of his play will slip due to last year's injury. He was extremely effective and was a big part of the offensive success in 2013. He was signed and then extended by this Chargers regime, so he is one of their guys.

 
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I think there is something we can say about all the all-time greats. They all have great work-ethics and are completely 100% dedicated to being the best they can be. They don't start slacking during their 2nd season after finding a little bit of success (and more so fantasy success as opposed to NFL success due to a disproportionate amount of TD's at the right time as opposed to true success), so it is safe to say Keenan Allen will never be a HOFer. He might be able to produce WR2-WR3 at best numbers for a few years to come, if he is willing to put forth the necessary effort remain in the league, but no one slacks this early in their career and turns out to be great.

 
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He seems to be trickling up draft boards, seems to be going consistently 4th-5th in the FFPC drafts (Non-DE) that I've done so far. With the Gates suspension/age, and a seemingly much softer schedule based on CB1 he will face, he seems a decent guy to make his bones with volume if nothing else.

 
He seems to be trickling up draft boards, seems to be going consistently 4th-5th in the FFPC drafts (Non-DE) that I've done so far. With the Gates suspension/age, and a seemingly much softer schedule based on CB1 he will face, he seems a decent guy to make his bones with volume if nothing else.
There was a run on WRs in a high stakes league like FFPC and he was taken late 3rd. The 3RR put owners in a tough position. Be glad if you aren't in a 3RR and if you don't have to pick from a less desirable group of Keenan, Marshall, Golden Tate and Edelman.

 
Notes:

People around the organization believe work ethic and maturity issues led to the down year.

Keenan is the early MVP, has been clutch and is lining up everywhere

Keenan lost weight and is moving well

I wouldn't take him over Matthews or KB but should be considered after. I could see taking him over Andre Johnson if you believe in the early notes and his bounce back year.

 
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Stevie Johnson about to take his lunch. And going rounds later
No way, Keenan is the #1 in that offense, Stevie will be good value but Keenan is the man in that offense. No question.
It depends. If Allen surpasses his 2013 play, he should be the clear #1, but if he plays more like last season, he won't be. A lot of this is in Allen's hands -- the opportunity is there if he wants it and has worked hard enough to take advantage of it.

However, a lot of people are seriously underestimating Johnson. He is in his prime and has never played with a QB or group of complementary targets close to as good as he will play with this season. He could easily have a career best season this year.

 
Stevie Johnson about to take his lunch. And going rounds later
No way, Keenan is the #1 in that offense, Stevie will be good value but Keenan is the man in that offense. No question.
It depends. If Allen surpasses his 2013 play, he should be the clear #1, but if he plays more like last season, he won't be. A lot of this is in Allen's hands -- the opportunity is there if he wants it and has worked hard enough to take advantage of it.

However, a lot of people are seriously underestimating Johnson. He is in his prime and has never played with a QB or group of complementary targets close to as good as he will play with this season. He could easily have a career best season this year.
Did you read what I posted earlier? Everything is pointing to a bounce back.

 
Stevie Johnson about to take his lunch. And going rounds later
No way, Keenan is the #1 in that offense, Stevie will be good value but Keenan is the man in that offense. No question.
It depends. If Allen surpasses his 2013 play, he should be the clear #1, but if he plays more like last season, he won't be. A lot of this is in Allen's hands -- the opportunity is there if he wants it and has worked hard enough to take advantage of it.

However, a lot of people are seriously underestimating Johnson. He is in his prime and has never played with a QB or group of complementary targets close to as good as he will play with this season. He could easily have a career best season this year.
Did you read what I posted earlier? Everything is pointing to a bounce back.
I'm not sure what you are specifically referencing, but I am aware of the positive news on Allen. I am a Chargers fan in San Diego and follow the team.

However, I suspect if I was so inclined, I could go back a year and dig up plenty of positive news on Allen from that time, and that didn't turn out well. :shrug:

I am cautiously optimistic that Allen will play better this season, which would constitute a real world bounceback. That may or may not translate into a significant fantasy bounceback. I posted some thoughts on this previously.

I can also tell you this. Over the past few weeks, I have seen and heard Stevie Johnson's name mentioned a lot more often than Allen's in Chargers blogs and talk radio. No negative news on Allen, but a lot of praise for Stevie.

 
Just Win Baby said:
Fantasysports1 said:
Just Win Baby said:
Fantasysports1 said:
Steed said:
Stevie Johnson about to take his lunch. And going rounds later
No way, Keenan is the #1 in that offense, Stevie will be good value but Keenan is the man in that offense. No question.
It depends. If Allen surpasses his 2013 play, he should be the clear #1, but if he plays more like last season, he won't be. A lot of this is in Allen's hands -- the opportunity is there if he wants it and has worked hard enough to take advantage of it.

However, a lot of people are seriously underestimating Johnson. He is in his prime and has never played with a QB or group of complementary targets close to as good as he will play with this season. He could easily have a career best season this year.
Did you read what I posted earlier? Everything is pointing to a bounce back.
I'm not sure what you are specifically referencing, but I am aware of the positive news on Allen. I am a Chargers fan in San Diego and follow the team.

However, I suspect if I was so inclined, I could go back a year and dig up plenty of positive news on Allen from that time, and that didn't turn out well. :shrug:

I am cautiously optimistic that Allen will play better this season, which would constitute a real world bounceback. That may or may not translate into a significant fantasy bounceback. I posted some thoughts on this previously.

I can also tell you this. Over the past few weeks, I have seen and heard Stevie Johnson's name mentioned a lot more often than Allen's in Chargers blogs and talk radio. No negative news on Allen, but a lot of praise for Stevie.
Same thing happened here in SF last year. Stevie was the shiny new toy.

He kinda sucked but so did Kaepernick. Who knows where the fault lies. Buyer beware.

 
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Just Win Baby said:
Fantasysports1 said:
Just Win Baby said:
Fantasysports1 said:
Steed said:
Stevie Johnson about to take his lunch. And going rounds later
No way, Keenan is the #1 in that offense, Stevie will be good value but Keenan is the man in that offense. No question.
It depends. If Allen surpasses his 2013 play, he should be the clear #1, but if he plays more like last season, he won't be. A lot of this is in Allen's hands -- the opportunity is there if he wants it and has worked hard enough to take advantage of it.

However, a lot of people are seriously underestimating Johnson. He is in his prime and has never played with a QB or group of complementary targets close to as good as he will play with this season. He could easily have a career best season this year.
Did you read what I posted earlier? Everything is pointing to a bounce back.
I'm not sure what you are specifically referencing, but I am aware of the positive news on Allen. I am a Chargers fan in San Diego and follow the team.

However, I suspect if I was so inclined, I could go back a year and dig up plenty of positive news on Allen from that time, and that didn't turn out well. :shrug:

I am cautiously optimistic that Allen will play better this season, which would constitute a real world bounceback. That may or may not translate into a significant fantasy bounceback. I posted some thoughts on this previously.

I can also tell you this. Over the past few weeks, I have seen and heard Stevie Johnson's name mentioned a lot more often than Allen's in Chargers blogs and talk radio. No negative news on Allen, but a lot of praise for Stevie.
Same thing happened here in SF last year. Stevie was the shiny new toy.

He kinda sucked but so did Kaepernick. Who knows where the fault lies. Buyer beware.
Stevie was one of the best slot WRs in the league last season. He didn't control the QB play, playcalling, or his usage. :shrug:

There are no great expectations on him. We'll see.

 
I loved Allen coming in to the league--he was a really polished route runner in college and seemed an unusually-ready-to-contribute rookie. He ended up on nearly all of my teams. After last year though, I'm skeptical of all the "best shape of his life! Working hard!" stories, just because it seems like he may not have a ceiling too far beyond the abilities he honed in college. That's great, and he can be a 70-80 catch guy each year, but the current personnel mix on the charges just doesn't seem to give him a lot of opportunity for TDs and longer gains.

I've always perceived Stevie as doing his best work out of the slot, so I don't know that Allen will get back inside as much as owners would like. I don't think I'm buying this year unless he slips well past guys like Allen Robinson, DeSean Jackson, Vincent Jackson, and so on.

 
Rotoworld:

Keenan Allen is down to 206 pounds after playing last season at 212.

Allen's 2013 Combine weigh-in was 6-foot-2, 206, so he's back at that weight. In the article linked below, Allen all but confirmed rumors of a lagging work ethic contributed to his surprisingly-slow 2014 campaign. Allen changed his diet this offseason, cut weight, and has drawn praise from the coaching staff for his improved commitment level. This season, the Chargers plan to give Allen more slot snaps, in addition to his outside X receiver duties. We like Allen's chances of getting into the 85-catch range in his third NFL season.

Source: Union-Tribune San Diego
Aug 6 - 11:26 PM
 
Just Win Baby said:
Fantasysports1 said:
Steed said:
Stevie Johnson about to take his lunch. And going rounds later
No way, Keenan is the #1 in that offense, Stevie will be good value but Keenan is the man in that offense. No question.
It depends. If Allen surpasses his 2013 play, he should be the clear #1, but if he plays more like last season, he won't be. A lot of this is in Allen's hands -- the opportunity is there if he wants it and has worked hard enough to take advantage of it.

However, a lot of people are seriously underestimating Johnson. He is in his prime and has never played with a QB or group of complementary targets close to as good as he will play with this season. He could easily have a career best season this year.
Went to chargers training camp last week and was really impressed with Allen. I'm no scout or anything, but basically Rivers looked his way all the time, and connected with him every time. Keenan caught everything and just looked like 'the man' on the offense there in general. I see a fairly big season. Obviously somewhere between 2013 and 2014

 

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