Zdravko said:
Last year, the Chargers threw 573 times and 544 the year before. If you decide to take the first half of 2013 as a proxy (instead of the second half), you are looking at 295 x 2 = 590 targets. Compared to these numbers, I don't see enough evidence to go with 520. I would go with something less conservative like 540-560.
Then, Allen as the lead receiver with 100 targets (19% of the total) seems very conservative as well. Rivers doesn't spread the ball that much. Maybe you are expecting Allen to miss time? For comparison, last year he had 122 targets (21% of the total), while still missing 2 games and being injured in 2 more. His rookie year, he had 104 targets, while being a non-factor in his very first three NFL games. So I would go with something less conservative around 22-24% of targets.
550 targets x 23% = 126 targets x your catch rate of 66% = 84 receptions. Doubt that will be enough for top-10 WR, but surely not as bleak as 66 receptions for 800 yards....
1. I clearly posted 16 games for Allen and for everyone else except Gates, for whom I showed 12 games. The biggest reason the projections I posted may be unrealistic is that there will be injuries, but we can't predict those.
2. As I pointed out, 2014 is not a good predictor, because the Chargers OL and running game were crushed by injuries. They played 5 centers last season and had other OL injuries, and their top 2 RBs missed significant time. That made it impossible for the Chargers to establish their running game. They were #30 in rushing yards and #31 in ypc last year; in 2013, they were #13 in rushing yards and #21 in ypc. IMO last year's passing attempts are not a valid predictor.
3. The Chargers' RB targets were down significantly in 2014 with Woodhead and Mathews combining to miss 23 games. This is one reason why Allen, a possession receiver, got a higher percentage of targets last season. In 2013, the Chargers targeted the RBs 133 times in 544 attempts (24%), compared to 109 times in 574 attempts (19%) in 2014. Woodhead is back. I expect the RB share of targets to go back up.
I could quibble with other stuff in your projection, but the rest is smaller stuff. Look, I just threw out those projections off the top of my head. I haven't spent a lot of time thinking about them yet. I will refine them at some point, and maybe I will bump Allen's targets.
But I am a Chargers fan, I have watched every Chargers game for years, and I live in San Diego and keep up with all Chargers news. Allen supporters could be right, he could finish as a top 20 or even top 10 WR. But I think the odds of that are low.
I think this is an excellent post, in the best vein of what the FBG forums can be - so thanks for the time to respond. I don't see Allen as top 10. I do expect him to squeeze into the top 20 ppg stats, but won't argue with your logic re: 520 attempts.
As you are a Chargers fan, a couple questions:
1. I wonder whether you see the bump in RB dumpoffs coming off Allen's tally or from others. Without knowing the Chargers as well, I would have guessed others, particularly the TE group and Floyd being partially replaced by Allen.
2. Spreading the ball - does Rivers really spread it that much? I look again at the target distribution of the first 13 games, when supposedly he had a healthy Allen and went his way >27% of the time.
Lastly, unrelated, how sold are you on old Danny getting back to 2013 performance? You have him at 13% of targets, double that of Gordon, which is quite material usage. Of course, he had a great 2013 campaign, but the little he played in 2014 wasn't too encouraging.
Target distribution by position:
2013: RBs 24%, TEs 28%, WRs 47%
2014: RBs 19%, TEs 22%, WRs 58%
In 2013, Floyd only played 2 games, and Vincent Brown actually got 70 targets. :X That was presumably a factor in the RBs and TEs getting so many targets. However, it has been true for all of Rivers' career that the Chargers WRs were near the bottom of the NFL in percentage of targets. This has no doubt been mostly because of strong RB and TE targets, as Gates, Tomlinson, Tolbert, Mathews, and Woodhead have all been good targets over the years. But this is also because Rivers spreads the ball around.
As I posted before, I expect RB targets to go up. Consider that in 2013, Woodhead and Mathews combined for 121 targets. In 2014, they combined for just 16. Woodhead is back, and Gordon will hopefully be healthier than Mathews was and will capably fill that role, though he may not be as good of a receiver. Both Brown and Oliver are also solid targets, should they be needed. (We can all hope Brown isn't needed.)
Perhaps the TE distribution will be closer to 2014 level than 2013, given Gates' suspension and advancing age, but it is at least possible that Green breaks out as was expected last season. Either way, I doubt the TE target percentage will be lower than in 2014. So perhaps WR targets will split the difference between 2013 and 2014... but on fewer attempts.
Assuming full health since we cannot predict injuries, I think the WR corps will be better this season. Floyd is a known commodity and is a very good, if underrated WR. IMO Johnson is an upgrade over Royal. Inman has a year of NFL experience now and flashed late last season, and I expect him to be better than last season. Even the WR5 is improved... I don't think Jacoby Jones is a great WR, and I hope he won't need to be targeted much, but he should be better than Ajirotutu.
So to me, fewer pass attempts + higher percentage to RBs + same or greater percentage to TEs + more capable/talented WR group behind Allen = Allen performing closer to 2014 than 2013.
To your specific questions:
1. Based on my analysis above, I see some short passing shifting from WRs to RBs. And the WR who could lose the most dumpoff targets is Allen, since he is the possession receiver and had the lowest YPR of all of the WR/TEs last season.
2. With a healthy complement of players, Rivers spreads it around. I think VJax had about 21% of the targets a couple of times with Gates, Floyd, and quality RB targets, but the situations seem different. First off, VJax was a quality deep threat in addition to a quality short and medium target. Allen doesn't seem like much of a deep threat. Also, Johnson seems more talented than the WR3 on those VJax teams, and Green seems like a much better backup TE than they had on those teams. So Rivers had fewer quality options in those seasons than he seems to have entering 2015. I also think Allen's targets went up because of the loss of Woodhead and Mathews; a large amount of targets that might have gone to them went to Allen. Now those RB roles are filled again.
3. Yes, obviously from my quick projections, I expect Woodhead to be a significant factor in the passing game. That's what he does. There is no reason to believe his role will be diminished or the level of his play will slip due to last year's injury. He was extremely effective and was a big part of the offensive success in 2013. He was signed and then extended by this Chargers regime, so he is one of their guys.