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WR Keenan Allen, CHI (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Sabertooth
- Start date
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
I thought the TD catch at least showed us he's willing to lay it all out for a reception.
Later in the game the announcers were talking about Darrius Heyward-Bey swatting at a pass instead of really going out after it. Some WRs just won't dive for the difficult catches. The better ones do.
nyy45
Footballguy
Glad I have them both.. not to mention Julius Thomas anyone!? I blew my #2 WW on Keenan last week and did so reluctantly. Glad to see it seems to have paid off, especially since I was saving the WW spot for the chance one of my RB's went down, and one did, DeMarco. Although I don't have top WW priority this week, I do have Keenan Allen from last week
Khy
Footballguy
He should have had a 2nd TD in last nights game. Rivers threw the ball about a foot short and it bounced off the ground when Allen tried to layout for another TD. If Rivers puts a little more air under the ball it lands right in Allen's chest for a 2nd TD.
The Jerk
Footballguy
I don't know what qualifies as "special" and that's not a very informative claim anyway.
I saw a receiver who, while lacking DeSean Jackson type top gear speed, has sufficient quickness to get adequate separation. He doesn't look like a rookie, and he showed veteran-like intangibles/polish. He was very decisive after the catch and got all the yards that were available with very little of the dancing around and backpedaling players do when they try to do too much. (I think Chucky talked about Allen getting vertical with the ball in his hands...)
I saw a player who has the trust of his QB. Trust is always important, but with the track record of Philip Rivers, the receiver he trusts is going to get a lot of targets, particularly in the red zone.
I saw a player who, to paraphrase Rivers in his postgame comments, plays like the NFL is not too big for him.
I'm all for contrarian thinking and its benefits in FF should not be dismissed. But sometimes, what you are seeing in a player is what you are going to get. Since Allen got his chance, he has performed like a team's featured receiver, and he looks like he is capable of sustaining fantasy WR2 status due to both his ability and opportunity.
He may lack any one "special" trait, but what he does possess is a great opportunity with sufficient talent to capitalize on that opportunity. Defenses may adjust to give Allen more attention, and one thing he has yet to prove is how he handles both success and adversity. But I don't see anything flukish about his production for the past few weeks. Instead, I see a player with the wonderful combination of both a relatively high floor and a reasonably high ceiling. Even if he wasn't a very late draft pick or a free agent pickup, he would be a player nearly anyone would like to have on their roster.
after writing a sentence like that, but in this case, I'm 
. Those missed targets are what allowed Allen to remain anonymous and able to be swiped by the SP brethren.
Khy
Footballguy
Good analysis. I think you'd have to be insane to watch the last 3 weeks and call his performances a fluke. As you said, he's doing everything right, Rivers trusts him, and the offense is moving this ball consistently. Going forward he's a WR3 with WR1 upside. Through 6 weeks he's on pace for 61 receptions 888 yards and 5.3 TDs and that's putting him on pace for all 6 games which isn't fair. In game 1 he didn't even see a snap, in game 2 he didn't start and saw only 45/84 snaps (about 50%).
Since Week 3 though he's been the starter. Looking at his on pace from Week 3 on he's on pace for:
86 Receptions, 1308 yards, 8.6 TDs or 66 Receptions, 1006 yards and 6.6 TDs for the ROY. And that's ignoring the fact that last week Rivers threw one or two bad passes to him in the red zone that should have been touchdowns if they're thrown better and another one this week. He could have legitimately had about 5 TDs over the past 3 weeks instead of the 2 he has right now. If they keep building this chemistry those targets will keep coming and be more consistent.
Over the past three weeks he's been more or less an every down player... Week 4 he was in on 70/74 snaps, Week 5 75/75 snaps and Week 6 77/78 snaps. His targets have gone from 6 to 9 to 12. Rivers is looking at him more and more and on top of that, his reception % is up at 74.1% which is amazing. If Rivers gets the ball near him, he's coming down with it.
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JustinHawkins
Footballguy
Was offered Tavon Austin and Thompkins for Allen and Patterson in my PPR dynasty leagues. I passed.
tombonneau
Footballguy
My whole point is the for a lot of people like me Allen is a bench play. I'm not staring him over BMarsh or Blackmon or Sproles in flex, so the question is you just hold for insurance and/or byes, or trade him to upgrade starting spot. Age old FF dilemma.
For me, if I can flip a guy I just grabbed off waiver and package for a surefire starter upgrade I do it. Allen's points don't do me or others anything on the bench.
Banger
Footballguy
He seems to be an outlier on this one and it may be due to "having too much info" since he's a SD fan. I think he views Rivers as a spread it around to the flavor of the week WR based on Rivers history. Could be wrong but just some of the clues I've put together while looking at this situation. Maurille please correct me if I'm wrong.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
All I know is that I am sorry that I missed out on him. Allen is a solid WR with a good QB on a team that has to pass the ball.
Banger
Footballguy
well last week I didn't think I would use him either since he was behind Gordon, AJ Green and Cobb....now Cobb is down and all the sudden he may be my flex play....things can change quickly.....also, I would certainly look to plug him in over Sproles...Sproles 2013 is not the Sproles of the past..he's had two double digit weeks this year (11 week 1 and 26.5 week 5...the other weeks were junk) which is the same number of Allen (17.5 and 16.7 back to back). Looking at those situations side by side, I think I like the Allen situation more since he's rookie who's got momentum and assuming the #1 receiving role in the offense. Sproles team is winning, throwing for a ton and the offense is largely unchanged but his numbers are down considerably...that's cause for concern IMO.
BlueDredSo
Footballguy
Think he'll have more value than Cecil Shorts the rest of the year? Limited roster league, so I'd have to drop Shorts to acquire Allen. I also have Blackmon on this same team.
Banger
Footballguy
I'd take the risk...it's probably unlikely that you'd start Shorts/Blackmon at the same time, Shorts is hurt, Blackmon is better than Shorts....so you diversify your roster a bit better without losing much (probably gaining) by adding Allen. Seems like addition by subtraction to me.
BlueDredSo
Footballguy
Ah, forgot to add that it's a best ball league, so I don't have to worry about that. I think I'm gonna go for it. I think Blackmon limits Shorts' upside now and Keenan could very well end up a WR2 (maybe even WR1?) Shorts' ceiling is probably WR2 at this point.
If you have him but have to keep him on your bench, it does 2 things:
1) give you insurance in case one of your starting 2 WRs get injured. You can use him in Sproles spot this week as your flex as well
2) it prevents someone else in your league from using his points against you in the playoffs. Giants, Denver, Oakland playoff schedule looks nice too
thank you for elaborating what I was trying to get at with my generic comments, I agree with your assessment completely!
FF Wiseguy
Footballguy
Maybe I misinterpreted the bolded part as you asking if Shorts or Hilton would be WRs you can get in return. But if what you meant was is he as valuable a trade chip as Short or Hilton, then I'd say he's probably right around there, with a higher chance for someone to overpay due to hype and recency bias. If you can combo him with Sproles for a Top 8 back or top 6 WR, then you're getting great value now.
In that case, throw out some offers to see if you can get someone to overpay. Otherwise, waiting a couple weeks will give people more confidence to go after him (as long as he doesn't drop off Royal-style), and allows you to get through a few more of your bye weeks with some insurance.
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I agree with most everything in your post. I saw a lot of good things too.The Jerk said:
However, Allen is 6'2" 210+ -- the fact that you're even saying his name in the same sentence as DeSean (5'8" 175), is a sign he is special. I had a hard time reconciling his quickness (in/out of breaks, turning up field, with the ball in his hands) with how big he actually is.
He moves like a shifty slot WR! He's a different sort of freaky than I've seen before.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
T with T
Footballguy
If only arians would get the guy more touches.... he had 19 points vs SF and was barely out there... 7 carries and 5 catches are you kidding me??? this guy should get 10-14 carries 3-6 catches game and he could be this darling we are all expecting... Wake up Arians.Khy said:
T with T
Footballguy
yea but to be fair, Allen dove for a 10 yard rainbow.... with room in the endzone... DHB had a ball go off his fingertips which was 60 plus yarder... that dive is a hell of a lot scarier my friend, although I think a guy like Don Mega, Dez and AJgreen would have made the catch DHB didn't make.LittlePhatty said:
Pigskin Fanatic
Footballguy
I was wrong about Allen. He's a baller and as some already stated he is getting quality targets. I tried to drop V Brown for him two weeks ago and got outbid in a blind auction. Looks like I missed this train.
T with T
Footballguy
Choo Chooo this train was off two weeks ago, sorry you couldn't board.... Tavon austin, patterson and hopkins were all hyped up to be number 1, and now it looks like it's clearly none other then Keenan Allen out of CAL. :IBTL: :IBTL:
Hank Mardukas
Footballguy
I'm a long time Cal fan and we knew this kid had NFL star written all over him. Allen was a top 5 national recruit at both WR and CB, hence the excellent quickness. He was the best player on the Cal team the day he set foot on campus, and it's no surprise at all to me that he's proving he can do it at the highest level.
Really glad a snatched him up after last week.
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SameSongNDance
Footballguy
It's so much fun to watch how he utilizes his quick feet and burst in short space. He beats the press with ease and will also hurt you if you give him too large of a cushion. Who cares if he doesn't have long speed since he excels in essentially every other aspect of the game.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I had an owner offer me Julio and MJD for Keenan and Trent. I am going to pass, but to be honest, right now I don't know that I'd do it straight up.
Julio had one huge game where he went 11 for 182 and a score against the beleaguered Rams. Outside of that one game, he has scored
In the past three games, Keenan has about 22 fantasy points per game which is higher than Julio if you throw out that one game of Julios' and Keenan's first few games before he broke into the lineup. I'm not a big fan of throwing out this or that game but the truth is, Keenan was three inches from a 10 catch, 130 yard, two TD game last night. That would have been nearly identical to Julio's top game in terms of fantasy points.
No, I'll just keep Allen thanks. I would not accept an offer of Julio for him at this point.
Julio had one huge game where he went 11 for 182 and a score against the beleaguered Rams. Outside of that one game, he has scored
In the past three games, Keenan has about 22 fantasy points per game which is higher than Julio if you throw out that one game of Julios' and Keenan's first few games before he broke into the lineup. I'm not a big fan of throwing out this or that game but the truth is, Keenan was three inches from a 10 catch, 130 yard, two TD game last night. That would have been nearly identical to Julio's top game in terms of fantasy points.
No, I'll just keep Allen thanks. I would not accept an offer of Julio for him at this point.
That's probably a good idea considering Julio was placed on season-ending IR last week. I wouldn't trade Blair Walsh for Julio at this point.
NickyHatton
Footballguy
This is spot on, nice jobThe Jerk said:
CalBear
Footballguy
Besides the TD catch yesterday, there was one play that to me showed why he's already able to be successful as a rookie. It was a third-quarter reception on a crossing round that went for about 15 yards and a first down. He squared the route off perfectly, running directly parallel to the line of scrimmage, which makes it a lot easier for the QB to put the ball where it needs to be to hit him in stride. Rivers threw it well, and Allen made the reception fluidly, and with his momentum sort of eased his way around the corner and upfield. Straight-line speed or not, the way he uses his body makes him play faster.
On another play he had a nifty spin move to break a tackle and get another five yards and a first down.
Glad to see the kid lighting it up! He started for me in week 6 (over Hankerson, Simpson, Tate) and might even start over my boy Gonzo in week 7 (gotta choose between Allen, Gonzo and J.Cameron for 2 slots).
On another play he had a nifty spin move to break a tackle and get another five yards and a first down.
Glad to see the kid lighting it up! He started for me in week 6 (over Hankerson, Simpson, Tate) and might even start over my boy Gonzo in week 7 (gotta choose between Allen, Gonzo and J.Cameron for 2 slots).
cubbie5150
Footballguy
Agree with those stressing that it's better to have Allen on your bench than in your opponent's starting lineup. I won a minimal blind bid on him after their week 4 game against Dallas & he hasn't been in my lineup, but I'm cool with it. (Though bumping the mediocrity of Ray Rice is becoming thinkable). It's a comfortable feeling to have someone starter-worthy to plug in for BYE weeks or injuries
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Second Sight
Footballguy
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Not shoddy logic, just not group think either. Julio does me zero good this season. Except maybe as trade bait.
You're saying to take out Julio's best game, only focus on Allen's best two games (ignoring his first game when he posted 5/60), say that Allen's line would have been higher if he caught a 2nd TD (like Julio has never had Ryan under/overthrow him), then they're scoring the same. You can manage your team how you want, but if you pass up a straight trade, you will regret it in the offseason.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I'm just trying to illustrate that they aren't necessarily that far apart in terms of production. Keenan is going to pay dividends this season and there is a definite advantage to that.
cubbie5150
Footballguy
Yep. That's when I grabbed him in my league where we only do blind bidding & no $0 bids. I had been tracking him given Floyd's injury history & then when Rivers started hot this year, I figured what the hell, he's worth my attention. I'm interested in seeing how the team does traveling to the east coast again. They already played at Philly, @ Jax this week & another east coast game week 11 @ Miami
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tombonneau
Footballguy
Your points while not without validity basically outline why you should never trade a player ever.jbz said:
But yeah based on the insane hype in this thread I'm going to hold another week, at least to get me through a stretch of byes. Dying at QB but I'm going to pawn off other depth and hold Keenan.
The early projections are done on Monday around 2-3 pm eastern, so before the MNF game.Banger said:
I had him at #30 yesterday. I have him at #20 today (depending on scoring system), but my projections are still nowhere near final.
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Sorry, was going off the top of my head. Doesn't change my point that Julio still has a lot more value than Keenan.
