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Is Carson Palmer underrated? (1 Viewer)

GroveDiesel

Footballguy
He finished as QB16 in my league last year despite being on a horrible Raiders team. The Arizona offensive line is vastly upgraded from last year and there is a lot of talent at the WR position. Seems to me that he is being underrated quite a bit. The only reason I could see his situation being any worse than last year is that Oakland was behind and throwing a lot last year while Arizona has a darn good defense to keep them in games a little more.

Thoughts?

 
I like Palmer, Fitzgerald and Roberts. The Raiders were a train wreck last season. And it's a totally different story having LF to go up and get jump balls.

 
To me, after right about QB10, the next dozen or more are almost a crapshoot in terms of ranking them. Every one of those guys seems to have 4250/25 type potential (or running QB equivalent) this year, and it's easy to imagine it for almost all of them, and also easy to imagine reasons it might well not happen.

For me, Palmer fits (Fitz?) nicely into this group. I'm not sure where you're seeing him ranked, but for me, if it's above 10 it's probably too high, and if it's below about 22 or 23, it's probably too low, and anywhere in the middle there I can see the argument for it. :shrug:

I guess it's not so much about seeing guys ranked too low among that glut of QB's for me, as it is about waiting if I don't get a stud and nabbing a couple of whichever ones it is that fall in any particular draft. If that's Palmer and Alex Smith, that's ok by me. Just like if it's Cutler, Bradford, Freeman, Vick...might even be willing to stretch it to accommodate Rivers or Manuel. Deep year at QB.

 
Yes I think Palmer is underrated. For whatever reason many FF enthusiasts seem to think Carson Palmer is not a good QB. That is not the case at all. He has been a very good QB when he is healthy. The situation over Palmers injury, the ruckus of ocho and Palmer having bad blood with the coaching staff over his brothers roster spot on the team, all of these things left a dark cloud over Carson Palmer and helped fuel the already pretty common sentiment that he is not a good QB.

The Cardinals as you mentioned have done very well upgrading their offensive line, coaching staff and QB. Bringing in Mendenhall to me means an upgraded situation from RB in pass protection, but still limted enough as a runner (as well as coaching philospohy) that the Cardinals should be passing more than a lot of other teams will.

Michael Floyd has emerged in the offense as well giving Palmer 3 excellent WR to work with.

Last season Cardinals QB were sacked 58 times. Most in 2012. Despite this the Cardinals still managed to run 940 plays, which is below average, but if they can reduce some of those sacks, as well as improved efficency in the passing game I can see the Cardinals pushing that number above 1k total plays. They will run more than they did last season, but this is not their bread and butter. I am expecting a 62/38 split in pass/run ratio. If they do manage 1k plays that would mean 620pa to 380ra.

All of this adds up to an excellent situation for Carson Palmer, somewhat hard for me to think of how it could be any better. As long as he stays healthy I think he is going to help teams who waited on QB by giving them an option that should be able to keep up with the other highly rated QB such as Tony Romo but you can take Palmer many rounds later than Romo. If Murry is healthy enough the Cowboys may be running much more than they did without him healthy and at that point opportunity between the 2 is looking very much the same aside from Witten. Fitz/Floyd/Roberts/Housler is about even with Dez/Witten/Austin/Williams I think.

 
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He finished as QB16 in my league last year despite being on a horrible Raiders team. The Arizona offensive line is vastly upgraded from last year and there is a lot of talent at the WR position. Seems to me that he is being underrated quite a bit. The only reason I could see his situation being any worse than last year is that Oakland was behind and throwing a lot last year while Arizona has a darn good defense to keep them in games a little more.

Thoughts?
I think Palmer is extremely underrated. I am targeting him as my QB2 in all of my drafts. Given health, I think he has an excellent shot at 4000 yards and 23-25 TD's, with upside towards 4300 yards and 25-27 TD. Of course, With Arians' vertical play calling, he will almost certainly approach 20 interceptions, but my projections place him inside the top 15 Qb's. Given that 18 of 20 FBG experts rate him QB16 or worse, and over 50% of them don't even have him in their top 20, Palmer is very undervalued. Waldman gets it.

 
Yes I think Palmer is underrated. For whatever reason many FF enthusiasts seem to think Carson Palmer is not a good QB. That is not the case at all. He has been a very good QB when he is healthy. The situation over Palmers injury, the ruckus of ocho and Palmer having bad blood with the coaching staff over his brothers roster spot on the team, all of these things left a dark cloud over Carson Palmer and helped fuel the already pretty common sentiment that he is not a good QB.

The Cardinals as you mentioned have done very well upgrading their offensive line, coaching staff and QB. Bringing in Mendenhall to me means an upgraded situation from RB in pass protection, but still limted enough as a runner (as well as coaching philospohy) that the Cardinals should be passing more than a lot of other teams will.

Michael Floyd has emerged in the offense as well giving Palmer 3 excellent WR to work with.

Last season Cardinals QB were sacked 58 times. Most in 2012. Despite this the Cardinals still managed to run 940 plays, which is below average, but if they can reduce some of those sacks, as well as improved efficency in the passing game I can see the Cardinals pushing that number above 1k total plays. They will run more than they did last season, but this is not their bread and butter. I am expecting a 62/38 split in pass/run ratio. If they do manage 1k plays that would mean 620pa to 380ra.

All of this adds up to an excellent situation for Carson Palmer, somewhat hard for me to think of how it could be any better. As long as he stays healthy I think he is going to help teams who waited on QB by giving them an option that should be able to keep up with the other highly rated QB such as Tony Romo but you can take Palmer many rounds later than Romo. If Murry is healthy enough the Cowboys may be running much more than they did without him healthy and at that point opportunity between the 2 is looking very much the same aside from Witten. Fitz/Floyd/Roberts/Housler is about even with Dez/Witten/Austin/Williams I think.
Good analysis, and I generally agree with it.

But I just wanted to comment that 1000 plays with a 62/38 split does not equate to 620 passing attempts. (I'm not sure if you were saying that when you posted 620 pa.) You have to reduce that number by the number of sacks you project and the number of times he will be forced to run on called passing plays.

Last year, Cardinals QBs were sacked 58 times, and many things have changed that should reduce that number. But how far? Luck was sacked 6.1% of the time last season under Arians. Palmer himself has a career sack percentage of 4.7%. I'd say around 30 sacks is a best case number.

Looks like Palmer has averaged about 1.7 rushing attempts per game. Let's assume 1.5 were scrambles, with the balance being sneaks and thus not called passing plays. So in 16 games, he might scramble on 24 called passing plays.

620 passing plays - 30 sacks - 24 scrambles = 566 passing attempts.

Using his career ypa and TD percentage, 566 passing attempts projects to approximately 4075 passing yards and 26 passing TDs. But he has to stay healthy to reach those numbers. And Fitz and the OL need to stay healthy. Based on numbers like these, is he really being underrated?

 
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Arizona has a good defense and Palmer won't be required to throw as much as he had to last year in Oakland.

 
From an NFL standpoint, I don't think so.

In FF terms, I'm intrigued. I really like AZ's receiving group. Fitz is Fitz. Floyd looked impressive in the first preseason game. I think Roberts is a really good NFL receiver. He took a big step forward last year, but his improvement got lost in the haze of the awful QB play. Put those three on the field with a capable QB and there should be some fireworks.

I think Palmer is a good backup candidate in redraft leagues if you're looking for a solid bye week option who could have fringe starter value. There is a little bit of upside there.

 
Yes I think Palmer is underrated. For whatever reason many FF enthusiasts seem to think Carson Palmer is not a good QB. That is not the case at all. He has been a very good QB when he is healthy. The situation over Palmers injury, the ruckus of ocho and Palmer having bad blood with the coaching staff over his brothers roster spot on the team, all of these things left a dark cloud over Carson Palmer and helped fuel the already pretty common sentiment that he is not a good QB.

The Cardinals as you mentioned have done very well upgrading their offensive line, coaching staff and QB. Bringing in Mendenhall to me means an upgraded situation from RB in pass protection, but still limted enough as a runner (as well as coaching philospohy) that the Cardinals should be passing more than a lot of other teams will.

Michael Floyd has emerged in the offense as well giving Palmer 3 excellent WR to work with.

Last season Cardinals QB were sacked 58 times. Most in 2012. Despite this the Cardinals still managed to run 940 plays, which is below average, but if they can reduce some of those sacks, as well as improved efficency in the passing game I can see the Cardinals pushing that number above 1k total plays. They will run more than they did last season, but this is not their bread and butter. I am expecting a 62/38 split in pass/run ratio. If they do manage 1k plays that would mean 620pa to 380ra.

All of this adds up to an excellent situation for Carson Palmer, somewhat hard for me to think of how it could be any better. As long as he stays healthy I think he is going to help teams who waited on QB by giving them an option that should be able to keep up with the other highly rated QB such as Tony Romo but you can take Palmer many rounds later than Romo. If Murry is healthy enough the Cowboys may be running much more than they did without him healthy and at that point opportunity between the 2 is looking very much the same aside from Witten. Fitz/Floyd/Roberts/Housler is about even with Dez/Witten/Austin/Williams I think.
Good analysis, and I generally agree with it.

But I just wanted to comment that 1000 plays with a 62/38 split does not equate to 620 passing attempts. (I'm not sure if you were saying that when you posted 620 pa.) You have to reduce that number by the number of sacks you project and the number of times he will be forced to run on called passing plays.

Last year, Cardinals QBs were sacked 58 times, and many things have changed that should reduce that number. But how far? Luck was sacked 6.1% of the time last season under Arians. Palmer himself has a career sack percentage of 4.7%. I'd say around 30 sacks is a best case number.

Looks like Palmer has averaged about 1.7 rushing attempts per game. Let's assume 1.5 were scrambles, with the balance being sneaks and thus not called passing plays. So in 16 games, he might scramble on 24 called passing plays.

620 passing plays - 30 sacks - 24 scrambles = 566 passing attempts.

Using his career ypa and TD percentage, 566 passing attempts projects to approximately 4075 passing yards and 26 passing TDs. But he has to stay healthy to reach those numbers. And Fitz and the OL need to stay healthy. Based on numbers like these, is he really being underrated?
You are right JWB I hadn't subtracted the scrambles and sacks from that number. :blush:

Here is my more detailed analysis of the situation posted in the spotlight thread. I have talked about this is several other threads as well. My thoughts on this have been pretty consistent I think while still fluid. The Winston signing really improved my view of the Oline situation since this projection. But here that is-

Cardinals 2010 50sk 8.2sk%
2011 54sk 8.9sk%
2012 58sk 8.7sk%

3yravg 54sk 8.6sk%

Here are the last 3 seasons of Arians as OC and how many hits his QBs took-

Colts 2012 41sk 6.1sk%
Steelers 2011 42sk 7.2sk%
Steelers 2010 43sk 8.2sk%

3yravg 42sk 7.2sk%

Please note that these are mobile QBs Luck and Big Ben doing most of the work here. Both are much more mobile than Palmer is. Palmer does have a quick release though. He is going to need it.

36 sacks is the most Palmer has ever taken. That was in his 3rd season. Career average 4.7 Sk% the last 3 seasons this has been 4.5 sk%

When I factor all 3 of these considerations together I get 6.75 sack percentage expected. Levi Brown and Cooper should be an improvement over last season which could take this number down a bit closer to Palmers career numbers. If it doesn't prepare for seeing how good Stanton can be in this offense.

540-610pa 330-390com 3800-4400yds 20-27Td if healthy 16 games.
 
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I was not real excited to see him fail in the redzone twice vs the cowboys in pre-season today. He missed on some plays with his accuracy. One 25 yarder to fitz was called back on a holding call. I did see some positives. That being said Mendenhall and a stout AZ D may not require 300 yard games from Palmer.

 
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Yes I think Palmer is underrated. For whatever reason many FF enthusiasts seem to think Carson Palmer is not a good QB. That is not the case at all. He has been a very good QB when he is healthy. The situation over Palmers injury, the ruckus of ocho and Palmer having bad blood with the coaching staff over his brothers roster spot on the team, all of these things left a dark cloud over Carson Palmer and helped fuel the already pretty common sentiment that he is not a good QB.

The Cardinals as you mentioned have done very well upgrading their offensive line, coaching staff and QB. Bringing in Mendenhall to me means an upgraded situation from RB in pass protection, but still limted enough as a runner (as well as coaching philospohy) that the Cardinals should be passing more than a lot of other teams will.

Michael Floyd has emerged in the offense as well giving Palmer 3 excellent WR to work with.

Last season Cardinals QB were sacked 58 times. Most in 2012. Despite this the Cardinals still managed to run 940 plays, which is below average, but if they can reduce some of those sacks, as well as improved efficency in the passing game I can see the Cardinals pushing that number above 1k total plays. They will run more than they did last season, but this is not their bread and butter. I am expecting a 62/38 split in pass/run ratio. If they do manage 1k plays that would mean 620pa to 380ra.

All of this adds up to an excellent situation for Carson Palmer, somewhat hard for me to think of how it could be any better. As long as he stays healthy I think he is going to help teams who waited on QB by giving them an option that should be able to keep up with the other highly rated QB such as Tony Romo but you can take Palmer many rounds later than Romo. If Murry is healthy enough the Cowboys may be running much more than they did without him healthy and at that point opportunity between the 2 is looking very much the same aside from Witten. Fitz/Floyd/Roberts/Housler is about even with Dez/Witten/Austin/Williams I think.
Good analysis, and I generally agree with it.

But I just wanted to comment that 1000 plays with a 62/38 split does not equate to 620 passing attempts. (I'm not sure if you were saying that when you posted 620 pa.) You have to reduce that number by the number of sacks you project and the number of times he will be forced to run on called passing plays.

Last year, Cardinals QBs were sacked 58 times, and many things have changed that should reduce that number. But how far? Luck was sacked 6.1% of the time last season under Arians. Palmer himself has a career sack percentage of 4.7%. I'd say around 30 sacks is a best case number.

Looks like Palmer has averaged about 1.7 rushing attempts per game. Let's assume 1.5 were scrambles, with the balance being sneaks and thus not called passing plays. So in 16 games, he might scramble on 24 called passing plays.

620 passing plays - 30 sacks - 24 scrambles = 566 passing attempts.

Using his career ypa and TD percentage, 566 passing attempts projects to approximately 4075 passing yards and 26 passing TDs. But he has to stay healthy to reach those numbers. And Fitz and the OL need to stay healthy. Based on numbers like these, is he really being underrated?
You are right JWB I hadn't subtracted the scrambles and sacks from that number. :blush:

Here is my more detailed analysis of the situation posted in the spotlight thread. I have talked about this is several other threads as well. My thoughts on this have been pretty consistent I think while still fluid. The Winston signing really improved my view of the Oline situation since this projection. But here that is-

Cardinals 2010 50sk 8.2sk%

2011 54sk 8.9sk%

2012 58sk 8.7sk%



3yravg 54sk 8.6sk%



Here are the last 3 seasons of Arians as OC and how many hits his QBs took-



Colts 2012 41sk 6.1sk%

Steelers 2011 42sk 7.2sk%

Steelers 2010 43sk 8.2sk%



3yravg 42sk 7.2sk%



Please note that these are mobile QBs Luck and Big Ben doing most of the work here. Both are much more mobile than Palmer is. Palmer does have a quick release though. He is going to need it.



36 sacks is the most Palmer has ever taken. That was in his 3rd season. Career average 4.7 Sk% the last 3 seasons this has been 4.5 sk%



When I factor all 3 of these considerations together I get 6.75 sack percentage expected. Levi Brown and Cooper should be an improvement over last season which could take this number down a bit closer to Palmers career numbers. If it doesn't prepare for seeing how good Stanton can be in this offense.



540-610pa 330-390com 3800-4400yds 20-27Td if healthy 16 games.
This is a very good combination of analyses.

 
Yes I think Palmer is underrated. For whatever reason many FF enthusiasts seem to think Carson Palmer is not a good QB. That is not the case at all. He has been a very good QB when he is healthy. The situation over Palmers injury, the ruckus of ocho and Palmer having bad blood with the coaching staff over his brothers roster spot on the team, all of these things left a dark cloud over Carson Palmer and helped fuel the already pretty common sentiment that he is not a good QB.

The Cardinals as you mentioned have done very well upgrading their offensive line, coaching staff and QB. Bringing in Mendenhall to me means an upgraded situation from RB in pass protection, but still limted enough as a runner (as well as coaching philospohy) that the Cardinals should be passing more than a lot of other teams will.

Michael Floyd has emerged in the offense as well giving Palmer 3 excellent WR to work with.

Last season Cardinals QB were sacked 58 times. Most in 2012. Despite this the Cardinals still managed to run 940 plays, which is below average, but if they can reduce some of those sacks, as well as improved efficency in the passing game I can see the Cardinals pushing that number above 1k total plays. They will run more than they did last season, but this is not their bread and butter. I am expecting a 62/38 split in pass/run ratio. If they do manage 1k plays that would mean 620pa to 380ra.

All of this adds up to an excellent situation for Carson Palmer, somewhat hard for me to think of how it could be any better. As long as he stays healthy I think he is going to help teams who waited on QB by giving them an option that should be able to keep up with the other highly rated QB such as Tony Romo but you can take Palmer many rounds later than Romo. If Murry is healthy enough the Cowboys may be running much more than they did without him healthy and at that point opportunity between the 2 is looking very much the same aside from Witten. Fitz/Floyd/Roberts/Housler is about even with Dez/Witten/Austin/Williams I think.
Good analysis, and I generally agree with it.

But I just wanted to comment that 1000 plays with a 62/38 split does not equate to 620 passing attempts. (I'm not sure if you were saying that when you posted 620 pa.) You have to reduce that number by the number of sacks you project and the number of times he will be forced to run on called passing plays.

Last year, Cardinals QBs were sacked 58 times, and many things have changed that should reduce that number. But how far? Luck was sacked 6.1% of the time last season under Arians. Palmer himself has a career sack percentage of 4.7%. I'd say around 30 sacks is a best case number.

Looks like Palmer has averaged about 1.7 rushing attempts per game. Let's assume 1.5 were scrambles, with the balance being sneaks and thus not called passing plays. So in 16 games, he might scramble on 24 called passing plays.

620 passing plays - 30 sacks - 24 scrambles = 566 passing attempts.

Using his career ypa and TD percentage, 566 passing attempts projects to approximately 4075 passing yards and 26 passing TDs. But he has to stay healthy to reach those numbers. And Fitz and the OL need to stay healthy. Based on numbers like these, is he really being underrated?
You are right JWB I hadn't subtracted the scrambles and sacks from that number. :blush:

Here is my more detailed analysis of the situation posted in the spotlight thread. I have talked about this is several other threads as well. My thoughts on this have been pretty consistent I think while still fluid. The Winston signing really improved my view of the Oline situation since this projection. But here that is-

Cardinals 2010 50sk 8.2sk%

2011 54sk 8.9sk%

2012 58sk 8.7sk%



3yravg 54sk 8.6sk%



Here are the last 3 seasons of Arians as OC and how many hits his QBs took-



Colts 2012 41sk 6.1sk%

Steelers 2011 42sk 7.2sk%

Steelers 2010 43sk 8.2sk%



3yravg 42sk 7.2sk%



Please note that these are mobile QBs Luck and Big Ben doing most of the work here. Both are much more mobile than Palmer is. Palmer does have a quick release though. He is going to need it.



36 sacks is the most Palmer has ever taken. That was in his 3rd season. Career average 4.7 Sk% the last 3 seasons this has been 4.5 sk%



When I factor all 3 of these considerations together I get 6.75 sack percentage expected. Levi Brown and Cooper should be an improvement over last season which could take this number down a bit closer to Palmers career numbers. If it doesn't prepare for seeing how good Stanton can be in this offense.



540-610pa 330-390com 3800-4400yds 20-27Td if healthy 16 games.
This is a very good combination of analyses.
It has a lot of flaws actually because I never subtracted the yardage lost on the sacks.

With Eric Winston now on the Cardinals I do think the sack percentage could be improved from the 6.75% projection. I will say 5% which is still .5% higher than Palmer the last 3 seasons. Perhaps this is too optimistic but the Cardinals actually have depth at offensive tackle now as Massie played pretty well later in the season. Mendenhall if healthy is a much better pass protector than they have had at RB I think as well.

Anyhow at 5%-5.5% sack rate that would be 27-34 sacks. I could see that number being as high as 40 though. If it is more than that Palmer may be in trouble. So at 7 yards/sack for 30-40 sacks would be 210-280 less passing yards than what I was working with above and I think that would be more correct. I didn't subtract sack numbers from any of the QB projections I did earlier so I need to go back through and apply that to all QBs if I am going to do so for Palmer.

Thanks JWB for keeping me honest. I definitely have holes in some of my reasoning. Always trying to get better.

eta- The reason I did not subtract the sack yardage is because that yardage still counts for the receivers. But yes that is the next step that I had not gotten around to yet.

 
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He is, almost certainly. In my leagues, he has been super cheap and almost every instance has been a case where I would think he should clearly be ranked above several that have gone before him. He's not the guy that I dream of when I think of cruising through a season but he is very much a guy that could get the job done if I lose my #1 or keep the ship together if I had a 3-6 week absence from my starter.

 
Fools gold. If you draft him, he's your backup QB, and you expect to have him for your bye week and probably nothing more. Chances are by then, he's carted off on a stretcher and put on IR. The Cards O-line allowed 57 sacks last year and even with nominal improvement Carson's body won't take that kind of punishment. And remember they just lost their prize rookie #7 overall pick Jonathan Cooper to a broken leg. There are better QB2's available. Keep looking.

 
Fools gold. If you draft him, he's your backup QB, and you expect to have him for your bye week and probably nothing more. Chances are by then, he's carted off on a stretcher and put on IR. The Cards O-line allowed 57 sacks last year and even with nominal improvement Carson's body won't take that kind of punishment. And remember they just lost their prize rookie #7 overall pick Jonathan Cooper to a broken leg. There are better QB2's available. Keep looking.
This is why CP will be a bargain this year. Perception.

 
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Palmer was the #1 fantasy QB in 2005. However, if he scored the same number of fantasy points last year, he would have finished as the #12 fantasy QB. Bottom line, Palmer would need a career year at effectively 34 years old to be a starting fantasy QB. He might be a decent back up, but I don't see him offering a competitive fantasy advantage.

 
Leaving the presumed o-line improvements aside, Palmer is pretty good at protecting himself and getting the ball out. He's not going to take anywhere near the sacks the Cards QBs did last year.

 
Palmer was the #1 fantasy QB in 2005. However, if he scored the same number of fantasy points last year, he would have finished as the #12 fantasy QB. Bottom line, Palmer would need a career year at effectively 34 years old to be a starting fantasy QB. He might be a decent back up, but I don't see him offering a competitive fantasy advantage.
Yeah, it all depends on why you're taking your backup QB.

If you've got a top-5 or 6 QB in your starting lineup, your focus in terms of QB2 will probably be a guy who can "hold down the fort" for a bye week or if your stud misses a game or two. That's the kind of situation in which I can see the allure of a Palmer, Cutler, Schaub, Flacco. Palmer is going behind those other three in ADP terms, so might be decent value from that perspective (though his OL and age suggest he probably should be at the bottom of that list, anyway).

If, like many FBG'ers, you've decided to wait on a QB this year and your starter is a warm body like Eli, Dalton, etc., then your QB2 focus might be (I would argue "should be") on a young gun or someone who can get you some upside if he posts a breakout year - Tannehill, Freeman, Alex Smith. There's no real point in grabbing a consistently mediocre QB2 to back up a consistently mediocre QB1.

I probably won't draft a lot of stud QB's this year, so I probably won't be seeking out Palmer.

 
Yes, he's underrated. A 13-18 qb that could rocket into 5-10 qb territory.

BUT... He's also not underrated when you consider who you would have to move below him in order to get him into the top 10. Romo? Rg3? Wilson? Kap? I just can't see him beating any of those guys in pure ff points.

 
Palmer's ratings are more heavily impacted by how interceptions are treated in your league than any other quarterback.

If they aren't penalized, this team will probably be doing a lot of playing from behind and that boosts his viability.

Assuming he doesn't quit.

-QG

 
I agree he's underrated. I like to wait on QBs so I wouldn't be shocked if I end up with him as my QB1 which will look horrible before the season to all the sheep, but honestly if you can get 4k and 28 out of your QB when waiting that late to take one, your other talent/depth should be great. I like Romo, but is there a big gap between him and Palmer? Is Romo going to hit a career high again in pass attempts? How good is RG3 going to be if he runs less and/or sophomore slumps back to a Brady-esque 7.6 ypa? I don't have much faith in Kaepernick. Stafford is no better than Palmer. I mean, really the gap between QB10 and Palmer is non-existent so you might as well harvest value.

I really like the combination of Palmer and Arians. Luck led the league in deep passes last year. I think Fitz/Roberts/Floyd are better than Ocho/Housh/Henry. The loss of Cooper is going to hurt him, as that O-line really needed a boost, but I like the addition of Eric Winston. I think Palmer will not be sacked at the rate the other QBs were last year, partially on his own ability and partially on better protection.

The only thing I don't like is his division. His SoS has to be pretty bad. But they're going to have to throw the ball. Mendenhall just isn't very good, but even RBs who are very good don't do very well against SF and Sea.

 
I also agree that Palmer is underrated. I am not protecting him in my keeper league this year. Not because I dont like him, but because of the team he plays for.

Arizona has had the worst O-line in the league over the last 3 years or so. I see an improvement coming this year, but they honestly needed more than one or two starters replaced.

In Oakland the Defense was bad and they would fall behind early and palmer would have lots of garbage time numbers to pad those stats.

In Arizona, he has better receivers, but the line is still bad. The problem in Arizona is the Defense will keep the team in games, so there will not be as much garbage time to pad the stats.

Defenses Just wont let up when the score is 14-9 so that will be lost to Palmer.

I think Palmer will throw for a couple more TD's as he will have a short field to work with more often than he did in Oakland, but his yardage will likely decline some for the same reason and due to the loss of garbage time at the end of games.

I predict 3800-3900 yards passing along with 25 TD's and 18 INTs.

 
Predicting injuries is a dumb thing to do.

I am predicting a Palmer injury. When I read about the hits Luck took last year, and that line, and Palmers age, and that running game, I picture a little red and white pile of goo 5 yards behind the Cardinals center.

 
In Oakland the Defense was bad and they would fall behind early and palmer would have lots of garbage time numbers to pad those stats.
Ok, I see this all the time. Is it even true?

I had to check, so I looked at the data dominator for week 1-15 (since Palmer was injured very early in week 16).

Palmer ranked 5th in fantasy points in the 4th quarter with 96.7. Griffin was right behind him with 96.2. Ahead of him were Stafford, Bradford, Newton, and Romo. People act like Palmer was a large margin leader in 4th quarter garbage time, but that's just not true. He scored 10 more fantasy points in the 4th quarter than Brady.

I just removed the 4th quarter portion and ran DD for week 1-15 and it turns out that while he was healthy, Palmer was the #12 QB last year. If you remove 4th quarter stats, he drops to 18th, but he's only 9 points away from 12th.

If I remove time constraints and just limit it to 14 points down or more, he is #1 just because of how many times Oakland was down that much, but his metric were worse. His ypa actually slid down to 7.3. Defenses were geared up against the pass but they weren't playing prevent. He really had the worst of both worlds in Oakland. They got behind so quickly that defenses weren't ready to concede yardage like they are when they are up by 14+ with 7 minutes remaining.

All in all, I think the garbage time points argument is overplayed. I think Palmer's improved weapons will more than outweigh any lost garbage time.

 
When looking for a solid QBBC, there's a certain situation that beckons: it's the veteran QB who may have been a little beaten up but still has talent, and suddenly that QB gets traded or signed to a team with significant talent at WR.

Kurt Warner - 4500/30 at age 37

Brett Farve - 4200/33 at age 40

Peyton Manning - 4600/37 at age 36

They are all more legendary than Palmer but don't forget that a young Palmer was once considered top 3 in the NFL.

Palmer was the #1 fantasy QB in 2005. However, if he scored the same number of fantasy points last year, he would have finished as the #12 fantasy QB. Bottom line, Palmer would need a career year at effectively 34 years old to be a starting fantasy QB. He might be a decent back up, but I don't see him offering a competitive fantasy advantage.
Eh, this is kinda bogus. Thomas Edward Patrick Brady had 4100 and 26 TDs in 2005. Manning had 3700/28. The NFL has changed; it's not Palmer's fault he outscored Brady and Manning when there was generally less passing pie to be had. Plus for most of his Bengals career Palmer was simply asked to manage team a solid defense and running game. Be careful of being blind to the fact that a veteran could produce the best numbers of his career when given the best offensive weapons/scheme/play calling of his career.

Speaking of age, are we really expecting Brady to have a (near) career year at 36? Manning at 37? Why, yes. Dem rules changes and WR talent can really make an old QB shine.

Yes, he's underrated. A 13-18 qb that could rocket into 5-10 qb territory.

BUT... He's also not underrated when you consider who you would have to move below him in order to get him into the top 10. Romo? Rg3? Wilson? Kap? I just can't see him beating any of those guys in pure ff points.
There's no reason to take Palmer off the board before QB14 at the absolute earliest.

I agree he's underrated. I like to wait on QBs so I wouldn't be shocked if I end up with him as my QB1 which will look horrible before the season to all the sheep, but honestly if you can get 4k and 28 out of your QB when waiting that late to take one, your other talent/depth should be great. I like Romo, but is there a big gap between him and Palmer? Is Romo going to hit a career high again in pass attempts? How good is RG3 going to be if he runs less and/or sophomore slumps back to a Brady-esque 7.6 ypa? I don't have much faith in Kaepernick. Stafford is no better than Palmer. I mean, really the gap between QB10 and Palmer is non-existent so you might as well harvest value.

I really like the combination of Palmer and Arians. Luck led the league in deep passes last year. I think Fitz/Roberts/Floyd are better than Ocho/Housh/Henry. The loss of Cooper is going to hurt him, as that O-line really needed a boost, but I like the addition of Eric Winston. I think Palmer will not be sacked at the rate the other QBs were last year, partially on his own ability and partially on better protection.

The only thing I don't like is his division. His SoS has to be pretty bad. But they're going to have to throw the ball. Mendenhall just isn't very good, but even RBs who are very good don't do very well against SF and Sea.
Totally agree with all of this. The divisional defense plus the quality of the Cards defense that might be even better than last year, but I think on balance the weaknesses of the Cards running game makes up for it.

In Oakland the Defense was bad and they would fall behind early and palmer would have lots of garbage time numbers to pad those stats.
Ok, I see this all the time. Is it even true?

I had to check, so I looked at the data dominator for week 1-15 (since Palmer was injured very early in week 16).

Palmer ranked 5th in fantasy points in the 4th quarter with 96.7. Griffin was right behind him with 96.2. Ahead of him were Stafford, Bradford, Newton, and Romo. People act like Palmer was a large margin leader in 4th quarter garbage time, but that's just not true. He scored 10 more fantasy points in the 4th quarter than Brady.

I just removed the 4th quarter portion and ran DD for week 1-15 and it turns out that while he was healthy, Palmer was the #12 QB last year. If you remove 4th quarter stats, he drops to 18th, but he's only 9 points away from 12th.

If I remove time constraints and just limit it to 14 points down or more, he is #1 just because of how many times Oakland was down that much, but his metric were worse. His ypa actually slid down to 7.3. Defenses were geared up against the pass but they weren't playing prevent. He really had the worst of both worlds in Oakland. They got behind so quickly that defenses weren't ready to concede yardage like they are when they are up by 14+ with 7 minutes remaining.

All in all, I think the garbage time points argument is overplayed. I think Palmer's improved weapons will more than outweigh any lost garbage time.
:goodposting:

 
When looking for a solid QBBC, there's a certain situation that beckons: it's the veteran QB who may have been a little beaten up but still has talent, and suddenly that QB gets traded or signed to a team with significant talent at WR.

Kurt Warner - 4500/30 at age 37

Brett Farve - 4200/33 at age 40

Peyton Manning - 4600/37 at age 36

They are all more legendary than Palmer but don't forget that a young Palmer was once considered top 3 in the NFL.

Palmer was the #1 fantasy QB in 2005. However, if he scored the same number of fantasy points last year, he would have finished as the #12 fantasy QB. Bottom line, Palmer would need a career year at effectively 34 years old to be a starting fantasy QB. He might be a decent back up, but I don't see him offering a competitive fantasy advantage.
Eh, this is kinda bogus. Thomas Edward Patrick Brady had 4100 and 26 TDs in 2005. Manning had 3700/28. The NFL has changed; it's not Palmer's fault he outscored Brady and Manning when there was generally less passing pie to be had. Plus for most of his Bengals career Palmer was simply asked to manage team a solid defense and running game. Be careful of being blind to the fact that a veteran could produce the best numbers of his career when given the best offensive weapons/scheme/play calling of his career.

Speaking of age, are we really expecting Brady to have a (near) career year at 36? Manning at 37? Why, yes. Dem rules changes and WR talent can really make an old QB shine.
Warner, Favre, Manning, and Brady are all future HOFers. Palmer is . . . Palmer.

If what you said were true that stats have become inflated (and they have), then it would stand to reason that Palmer's stats would have escalated over the past 6-7 years just like everyone else's. Except they haven't. That's because Palmer is . . . Palmer. He's played with very good receivers in the past (Ocho, Owens, Housh) and still not eclipsed his numbers from 2005.

And it's not just Palmer, there are other reasons to expect things to be suboptimal in ARI. For starters, their OL over the past many years has been porous and many a QB have been battered and missed extended time.

The fact remains, there really hasn't been any indication that Palmer can produce at a top level in 2013 compared to the production level of his top peers. His passing totals and per pass metrics have gone backwards since he was the top fantasy QB. In essence, he's been trending the wrong way.

Feel free for people to disagree, but I don't see major signs to indicate that Palmer will make a huge jump fantasy wise. Better then in OAK? Probably. Good enough to be a fantasy starter? Probably not. Decent fantasy backup QB? Probably.

 
When looking for a solid QBBC, there's a certain situation that beckons: it's the veteran QB who may have been a little beaten up but still has talent, and suddenly that QB gets traded or signed to a team with significant talent at WR.

Kurt Warner - 4500/30 at age 37

Brett Farve - 4200/33 at age 40

Peyton Manning - 4600/37 at age 36

They are all more legendary than Palmer but don't forget that a young Palmer was once considered top 3 in the NFL.

Palmer was the #1 fantasy QB in 2005. However, if he scored the same number of fantasy points last year, he would have finished as the #12 fantasy QB. Bottom line, Palmer would need a career year at effectively 34 years old to be a starting fantasy QB. He might be a decent back up, but I don't see him offering a competitive fantasy advantage.
Eh, this is kinda bogus. Thomas Edward Patrick Brady had 4100 and 26 TDs in 2005. Manning had 3700/28. The NFL has changed; it's not Palmer's fault he outscored Brady and Manning when there was generally less passing pie to be had. Plus for most of his Bengals career Palmer was simply asked to manage team a solid defense and running game. Be careful of being blind to the fact that a veteran could produce the best numbers of his career when given the best offensive weapons/scheme/play calling of his career.

Speaking of age, are we really expecting Brady to have a (near) career year at 36? Manning at 37? Why, yes. Dem rules changes and WR talent can really make an old QB shine.
Warner, Favre, Manning, and Brady are all future HOFers. Palmer is . . . Palmer.

If what you said were true that stats have become inflated (and they have), then it would stand to reason that Palmer's stats would have escalated over the past 6-7 years just like everyone else's. Except they haven't. That's because Palmer is . . . Palmer. He's played with very good receivers in the past (Ocho, Owens, Housh) and still not eclipsed his numbers from 2005.

And it's not just Palmer, there are other reasons to expect things to be suboptimal in ARI. For starters, their OL over the past many years has been porous and many a QB have been battered and missed extended time.

The fact remains, there really hasn't been any indication that Palmer can produce at a top level in 2013 compared to the production level of his top peers. His passing totals and per pass metrics have gone backwards since he was the top fantasy QB. In essence, he's been trending the wrong way.

Feel free for people to disagree, but I don't see major signs to indicate that Palmer will make a huge jump fantasy wise. Better then in OAK? Probably. Good enough to be a fantasy starter? Probably not. Decent fantasy backup QB? Probably.
Normally I can count on Stewie for solid analysis, but this is lacking. You are totally ignoring the situation. Palmer was a #1 overall pick and he looked like a #1 overall pick. Poise, arm strength, accuracy. And this was while playing on the Bengals who have been a train wreck for as long as I can remember. He even looked ready to take them deep into the playoffs (after finishing as the #1 FF QB) before getting his knee blown up in the first quarter against the Steelers. He came back (very quickly for an ACL back in 2005) and looked good the next year finishing QB5. As the team fell apart for various reasons, his INTs increased but he still managed 4k+ yards (5th in the league) and finished QB9 in 2007.

That's really all we had on Palmer for a while because he missed most of the season and declined Tommy John surgury in 2008 and his ypa dipped incredibly through the next two seasons. I think this is where most of the bias comes from. People act like Palmer just sucks and was a fluke earlier in his career. I honestly think he had lingering elbow issues.

When he went from one train wreck to another (Oakland) his arm strength appeared to be back. I found a youtube clip of him throwing a 60 yd TD on a rope in 2011. Despite being thrown into the fire with no time to learn the offense, Palmer threw for 8.6 ypa and finished QB10 from weeks 9-17 of 2011. Oakland switched the offense again, let his top target (a mediocre TE) leave, DHB suffered a concussion, Moore suffered poor route running and drops, but Palmer still finished QB12 in 2012 during weeks 1-15 (got injured after 3 passes in week 16).

So sure, we can say "Palmer is... Palmer" all day long and pretend like that's saying something since he doesn't have the name recognition of HOFers, but realistically Palmer could've been elite this whole time if he was on a normal team and did not suffer elbow damage.

Further, you say he's played with great WRs. I honestly thought Chad was a great receiver but after he left Cincy it came out that he routinely had trouble running the right routes and he completely fell on his face in New England due to this. Housh was a great WR? No. Just no. Palmer made Housh. The guy had good hands, but that was about it. I'd say a good Housh comarison would be Burleson. Good role player, but never confused with greatness. And he did play ONE season with TO at the very end of his career and Palmer made TO relevant again after doing almost nothing in Buffalo.

The Cardinals are not a great team but they are far and away the best team Palmer has ever played on. Arians is his best OC. Fitz/Floyd/Roberts are by far the best WRs he's played with. Hell, I think Housler is JAG but he's probably in the running for Palmer's best TE (not that Arians uses the TE anyway). Palmer was never a mobile guy. I should surprise no one if he still looks like a #1 overall pick at the age of 34 this year. I'd be willing to bet he can throw the ball a good 15 yard farther than Brady at this point in their careers.

 
When looking for a solid QBBC, there's a certain situation that beckons: it's the veteran QB who may have been a little beaten up but still has talent, and suddenly that QB gets traded or signed to a team with significant talent at WR.

Kurt Warner - 4500/30 at age 37

Brett Farve - 4200/33 at age 40

Peyton Manning - 4600/37 at age 36

They are all more legendary than Palmer but don't forget that a young Palmer was once considered top 3 in the NFL.

Palmer was the #1 fantasy QB in 2005. However, if he scored the same number of fantasy points last year, he would have finished as the #12 fantasy QB. Bottom line, Palmer would need a career year at effectively 34 years old to be a starting fantasy QB. He might be a decent back up, but I don't see him offering a competitive fantasy advantage.
Eh, this is kinda bogus. Thomas Edward Patrick Brady had 4100 and 26 TDs in 2005. Manning had 3700/28. The NFL has changed; it's not Palmer's fault he outscored Brady and Manning when there was generally less passing pie to be had. Plus for most of his Bengals career Palmer was simply asked to manage team a solid defense and running game. Be careful of being blind to the fact that a veteran could produce the best numbers of his career when given the best offensive weapons/scheme/play calling of his career.

Speaking of age, are we really expecting Brady to have a (near) career year at 36? Manning at 37? Why, yes. Dem rules changes and WR talent can really make an old QB shine.
Warner, Favre, Manning, and Brady are all future HOFers. Palmer is . . . Palmer.If what you said were true that stats have become inflated (and they have), then it would stand to reason that Palmer's stats would have escalated over the past 6-7 years just like everyone else's. Except they haven't. That's because Palmer is . . . Palmer. He's played with very good receivers in the past (Ocho, Owens, Housh) and still not eclipsed his numbers from 2005.

And it's not just Palmer, there are other reasons to expect things to be suboptimal in ARI. For starters, their OL over the past many years has been porous and many a QB have been battered and missed extended time.

The fact remains, there really hasn't been any indication that Palmer can produce at a top level in 2013 compared to the production level of his top peers. His passing totals and per pass metrics have gone backwards since he was the top fantasy QB. In essence, he's been trending the wrong way.

Feel free for people to disagree, but I don't see major signs to indicate that Palmer will make a huge jump fantasy wise. Better then in OAK? Probably. Good enough to be a fantasy starter? Probably not. Decent fantasy backup QB? Probably.
He was a top 12 QB through 15 weeks last year in Oakland. That's a starter in 12 or 14 team leagues. And Arizona is clearly a MUCH better situation than Oakland.

 
I kept Palmer in my 2qb league (Keep one pick taken 5th rd or later). I could've kept Eli but I feel Carson has one of those "where did that come from" years. Good analysis in this thread.

 
Raiderfan32904 said:
GroveDiesel said:
Arizona is clearly a MUCH better situation than Oakland.
You think so? Is it the O-line that's better in Zona? Maybe it's the running game? Oh, I know, it's that Cards play in an easier division than the AFC West right?
Grouchy raiders fans... Arizona has receiving talent and good coaching. The run game in Oakland was crap last year. The o-line was better, sure, but just get over the fact that Oakland is a wasteland. Playing there is a career killer. DHB was hurt last year and Moore just isn't a very good WR. The defense was so bad that Oakland never had the threat of a balanced attack, making Palmer's job harder. But thank you very much for making Palmer such a steal this year. Without Oakland's ineptitude, Palmer's price would be much higher.

 
I know a lot of you don't place as much stock in this as I do, but I go into all of my drafts expecting to be in the championship game (Hawk screech)... and in week 16, the Cardinals are @ Seattle, where they lost 58-0 last season. Call me crazy, but I don't think Palmer is going to make any difference in that stadium. You're asking for trouble if you roll with him as your QB1. But if you insist on drafting him, try to sell high if he has a monster week early on.

 
Seattle has a very good pass defense, but they have a lock down run D. If Arizona scores (which I think they will) it will be through the air. He won't win you the championship, but I'm predicting 240 yds 2 TD, 1 INT.

 
I cannot believe we are already projecting a "championship week" schedule for Carson Palmer. If this guy takes any team to their fantasy Championship, the Raiders will have likely won zero games.

 
Further data that makes me skeptical about Palmer's prospects this year . . .

- He last ranked in the Top 10 QBs in 2007.

- He's missed time in 4 seasons.

- ARI has had a QB play in all 16 games once in the past 10 years (Warner in 2008).

- Arians has had 3 QBs rank in the fantasy Top 10 QBs since becoming an OC or HC in 2001. Big Ben twice and Luck last year (who barely made it at #10 after throwing 627 times).

- Palmer has only hit 550 passing attempts 3 times in 9 years.

- As others have mentioned, he has 4 games with SF and SEA and 6 other games against teams in the top half of pass defenses from last year.

As I said earlier, you could do way worse for a fantasy QB2, but I really don't see Palmer being a fantasy impact player this year. Of guys that ranked near or behind him last year, Kaepernick should easily outproduce Palmer by playing an entire season, Eli would only need to bounce back a little to outscore Palmer, and Vick would more than likely average more than Palmer (assuming he can stay on the field).

IMO, things would have to really go right for Palmer in ARI and bad things would have to happen to many other QBs for Palmer to shoot into the QB5-10 range.

 
I like Palmer, and feel he's more then a capable QB..

But with that OL, the running game, and only 1 good WR(IMO)..

I'm sorry I see the situation in Arizona worse then it was for Palmer in Oakland.

Not to mention a better D in Arizona, I don't see Palmer having as much opportunity

to chuck the ball as much as he did in Oakland, so I see worse stats this year for him.

 
I'm rolling with him and Freeman with Palmer getting higher priority because he's just better. the schedule looks pretty great as of right now. very underrated for QBBC considering where you can get him (12th round for me as my first QB taken)

Freeman: NYJ

Freeman: NO

Palmer: NO

Palmer: TB

Palmer: CAR

Freeman: PHI

Freeman: ATL

Palmer: ATL

Freeman: SEA

Freeman: MIA

Palmer: JAX

Palmer: IND

Palmer: PHI

Freeman: BUF

Palmer: TEN

Freeman: StL

Freeman: NO

Thats how you play Palmer. pair him up with someone else who has a good schedule on the weeks he's going to throw 3 picks. him in combo with someone else has the potential to put out great numbers IMO

 
Further data that makes me skeptical about Palmer's prospects this year . . .

- He last ranked in the Top 10 QBs in 2007. Injuries and Oakland will have that effect

- He's missed time in 4 seasons. One of those four was voluntary when he didn't want to play for the Bengals. Seems misleading to include that when implying he's an injury risk. He missed 2 games as a rookie, most of the season when he tore the elbow ligament, and one game with the Raiders last year. That doesn't count as injury prone in my book for a 9 year veteran.

- ARI has had a QB play in all 16 games once in the past 10 years (Warner in 2008). I'm not sure this could be a less important statistic.

- Arians has had 3 QBs rank in the fantasy Top 10 QBs since becoming an OC or HC in 2001. Big Ben twice and Luck last year (who barely made it at #10 after throwing 627 times). Very misleading. Shame on you.

In 2004, Ben was a rookie.

In 2005, he missed time and played game manager (268 att).

In 2006, he had that motorcycle accident or appendix removed and missed week 1 and had a very slow 3 game start, but from weeks 6-17 he was QB5 (actually finished the season QB10 despite the missed game and slow start).

In 2007, he was QB4 from weeks 1-16 (missed week 17).

In 2008, he did have a bad year (468 att and only 17 TD), finishing QB16

In 2009, he missed a game in the middle of the season so I'm not going to mess with DD, but he finished QB8.

In 2010, in the 12 games he played he was QB6.

In 2011, He was QB10 through week 15 (missed week 16).

In 2012, Luck finished QB10.

So six of the last 7 seasons have yielded QB10 or better numbers for Arians.

- Palmer has only hit 550 passing attempts 3 times in 9 years. How is that relevant? He's on a new team with a new coach. Palmer doesn't call the plays. I think this stat is directly related to your first stat.

- As others have mentioned, he has 4 games with SF and SEA and 6 other games against teams in the top half of pass defenses from last year. He plays one of them in week 17, but yeah, he does have a touch schedule, although SF and SEA are tougher against the run than the pass.

As I said earlier, you could do way worse for a fantasy QB2, but I really don't see Palmer being a fantasy impact player this year. Of guys that ranked near or behind him last year, Kaepernick should easily outproduce Palmer by playing an entire season, Eli would only need to bounce back a little to outscore Palmer, and Vick would more than likely average more than Palmer (assuming he can stay on the field).

IMO, things would have to really go right for Palmer in ARI and bad things would have to happen to many other QBs for Palmer to shoot into the QB5-10 range.
That data makes you skeptical because the data is really bad and/or irrelevant.

 
Palmer was the #1 fantasy QB in 2005. However, if he scored the same number of fantasy points last year, he would have finished as the #12 fantasy QB. Bottom line, Palmer would need a career year at effectively 34 years old to be a starting fantasy QB. He might be a decent back up, but I don't see him offering a competitive fantasy advantage.
That's an odd line of thinking. It's like saying if I bought a gallon of gas in 2005 it would cost $1.35. Now it would cost $3.89.

Peyton Manning and Tom Brady were in the league in 2005, so instead of looking at the numbers that resulted in #1 then and #12 now, wouldn't it be better to look at it in the context of what the players at the position were doing in the league? No matter how you slice it, he played at the same time of other great QBs and he was #1. THe game has changed though. I'm sure Manning's 2005 numbers or Favre's 2005 numbers wouldn't look the same as other years either.

Anyway, I think it goes too far to think Palmer won't be fantasy relevant. We can't predict health, of course, but we know the Arians pholosophy, we know the likeliehood that the Cards will be passing, and we know they have some good pass catchers. In today's NFL, I think that translates into relevancy. I don't want Palmer as my QB1 but I'm not crying if he has to take a few starts on any given Sunday this year as my fill in or injury replacement.

I'd take him over Ponder, Locker, Smith, Sanchez and those guys all the time and guys like Freeman, Bradford, etc in certain matchups.

 
Palmer was the #1 fantasy QB in 2005. However, if he scored the same number of fantasy points last year, he would have finished as the #12 fantasy QB. Bottom line, Palmer would need a career year at effectively 34 years old to be a starting fantasy QB. He might be a decent back up, but I don't see him offering a competitive fantasy advantage.
That's an odd line of thinking. It's like saying if I bought a gallon of gas in 2005 it would cost $1.35. Now it would cost $3.89.

Peyton Manning and Tom Brady were in the league in 2005, so instead of looking at the numbers that resulted in #1 then and #12 now, wouldn't it be better to look at it in the context of what the players at the position were doing in the league? No matter how you slice it, he played at the same time of other great QBs and he was #1. THe game has changed though. I'm sure Manning's 2005 numbers or Favre's 2005 numbers wouldn't look the same as other years either.

Anyway, I think it goes too far to think Palmer won't be fantasy relevant. We can't predict health, of course, but we know the Arians pholosophy, we know the likeliehood that the Cards will be passing, and we know they have some good pass catchers. In today's NFL, I think that translates into relevancy. I don't want Palmer as my QB1 but I'm not crying if he has to take a few starts on any given Sunday this year as my fill in or injury replacement.

I'd take him over Ponder, Locker, Smith, Sanchez and those guys all the time and guys like Freeman, Bradford, etc in certain matchups.
Let's try this again. As others have mentioned, QB production has gone up since 2005. But if you look at the main QBs that are still in the league, their numbers are the ones that have had their production escalate. Drew Brees bested his 2005 fantasy totals 7 time, Peyton did it 6 times, and Brady 5 times. Most of those years for those guys were dramatically better than their numbers from 2005. The new crop of QBs throughout the league have also posted totals higher than the typical 2005 QB numbers.

However, that holds true for everyone but not Palmer. His totals have not escalated along with everyone else. In fact, his numbers have gone backwards since 2005, both in terms of total fantasy points but also in terms of individual category passing stats. In the 2007-2012 timeframe, on a seasonal basis he did not have a year scoring within 50 points of his 2005 season.

Playing almost a full season last year, Palmer was roughly in the middle of the road for NFL passers and that's probably where I would slot him in terms of fantasy. Of 32 NFL starting QBs, I'd rank him pretty much in the middle, which to me makes him about average.

In terms of whether ARI not being able to have a QB play a full season, I definitely think that that is relevant. Palmer is not the most mobile of QBs and is turning 34, and if the Cardinals had problems protecting the QB, Palmer would certainly be a pretty big target to tee off on. That doesn't mean he automatically is going to miss time, but it does make for cause for concern.

As for Arians, he was a HC or OC for CLE 01-03, PIT 07-11, and IND in 12. In terms of passing yards, his teams ranked 28, 18, 25, 22, 17, 9, 14, 10, and 7. In terms of passing TD, his teams ranked 21, T3, T20, T3, 18, 7, 21, 13, 9. That's an average of 17 in passing yards and 13th in passing TD, which admittedly doesn't mean much as a metric but still shows that he hasn't exactly been a modern day Mike Martz.

 
Bump.

He's going to keep playing tough defenses all year, but St. Louis at home is pretty tough. Still managed a nice game... and the RBs were predictably terrible. Mendenhall and company will simply not be able to average 4 yards a carry against defenses the like of StL, SF, and Seattle. And those 3 WRs looked goooood. 4500/30 looks very possible.

 
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I am not sure if I would go that far KR but I like the optimism.

All 3 WR should be solid guys to have on your roster as well. These are the best options they have.

Palmer was sacked 4 times out of 40 attempts however. That is a 9% sack rate and too high. If he were sacked 4 times/game for 16 games that would be 64. I do not know if he can stay healthy if they do not improve on this.

 
Here's the thing. In putting up some nice numbers this week, he was still the #15 QB on the week. Clearly there were a lot of big QB scores this week, but in many games starting Palmer would have left you needing to make up points elsewhere. I get that he was not the same investment as other pricier QBs, but he'll have to keep putting up big numbers throwing the ball because he's not going to get much running it.

 
Not sure how he is more underrated then Matt Schaub.

They have virtually the same Average Draft Position. At 19 & 20.

Yet Schaub has been...

  • 4008 22
  • 3966 27 (prorated to 16 games, with AJ missing almost entire season)
  • 4370 24
  • 4770 29
  • 4426 25 (prorated to 16 games)
...the past 5 years.

 
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Not sure how he is more underrated then Matt Schaub.

They have virtually the same Average Draft Position. At 19 & 20.

Yet Schaub has been...

  • 4008 22
  • 3966 27 (prorated to 16 games, with AJ missing almost entire season)
  • 4370 24
  • 4770 29
  • 4426 25 (prorated to 16 games)
...the past 5 years.
I like Palmer's chances of hitting 30+ TD way more than Schaub. Arian Foster has been a goal line monster whereas Arizona can't run the ball. However, last night was a good start for Schaub.

 

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