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Pwingles

Help with where to target JJ watt in partial IDP league

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this is a 12 team, non ppr league with 4 IDP starters, 1 LB, 1 DB, 1 DL, 1 IDP flex

The scoring is such that the top 15 or so LBs are all within 25 pts of each other, Dbs are similarly close.

The DL players on average appear to score less per game than the other 2 positions, with the exception of JJ Watt last year. I dont expect a repeat, but I expect him to be #1 at his position by a fair margin. In this league last year he outscored Calvin Johnson (219 pts), and all other rec's. He outscored all the RBs except the top 3 (AP, foster, Martin).

Watt had 255 pts in this league last year, he was a top 16 scorer overall, of these 3 (the top 3 rbs) werent QBs.

Starting slots are like this

qb / 2x rb / 3x wr / te / te-wr-rb flex / k / DL / LB / DB / IDP flex

I have the 2 spot, im really considering taking him in rd 2 or 3.

Thoughts?

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With how many offensive players and how few defensive players I really think you should just pass on Watt, I don't disagree that Watt isn't favored to finish by a margin as the DL1 but I don't think that margin is enough to justify passing on a skill position player.

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I feel like its a similar situation to Jimmy Graham and his relative ADP, except in this league Watt outscore Graham by 105 pts, and the TE10 by 150. He outscored the DL 2 by 104... Graham outscored the TE2 by 6.

I feel like that type of scoring and positional advantage/potential cannot be ignored.

Further info on this league,

I am the new guy to this league. I am friends with a couple guys and dont know anyone else personally. I took a look at the previous years draft, the first IDP players were taken in rd 7. A player of the same position who had a solid year prior was the first off the board (Jared Allen), his numbers werent anything like Watts last year, so I can safely assume Watt will go first, and higher than Allen did last year. The question is when. I dont want to miss out on him, I feel like that type of advantage is too huge. Im not quite convinced you can make an argument against taking him in the rd 3-5 range is a reach. But the type of players going off in the 5th round are not nearly as hard to replace points wise at whatever position they play as this guy is.

Not arguing to argue, just trying to make a better case for taking an IDP player that early.

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I feel like its a similar situation to Jimmy Graham and his relative ADP, except in this league Watt outscore Graham by 105 pts, and the TE10 by 150. He outscored the DL 2 by 104... Graham outscored the TE2 by 6.

I feel like that type of scoring and positional advantage/potential cannot be ignored.

Further info on this league,

I am the new guy to this league. I am friends with a couple guys and dont know anyone else personally. I took a look at the previous years draft, the first IDP players were taken in rd 7. A player of the same position who had a solid year prior was the first off the board (Jared Allen), his numbers werent anything like Watts last year, so I can safely assume Watt will go first, and higher than Allen did last year. The question is when. I dont want to miss out on him, I feel like that type of advantage is too huge. Im not quite convinced you can make an argument against taking him in the rd 3-5 range is a reach. But the type of players going off in the 5th round are not nearly as hard to replace points wise at whatever position they play as this guy is.

Not arguing to argue, just trying to make a better case for taking an IDP player that early.

I don't feel like its similar at all, the gap between the #1 DL and the #12 DL is gonna be smaller than the #1 TE and the #12 TE, in addition to that the DL player pool is much deeper giving you even more options than compared to TE.

If you feel like you can't pass on him then don't but consider the reach, I think before the 5th is just too high unless your tiers fall apart mid draft.

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I feel like its a similar situation to Jimmy Graham and his relative ADP, except in this league Watt outscore Graham by 105 pts, and the TE10 by 150. He outscored the DL 2 by 104... Graham outscored the TE2 by 6.

I feel like that type of scoring and positional advantage/potential cannot be ignored.

Further info on this league,

I am the new guy to this league. I am friends with a couple guys and dont know anyone else personally. I took a look at the previous years draft, the first IDP players were taken in rd 7. A player of the same position who had a solid year prior was the first off the board (Jared Allen), his numbers werent anything like Watts last year, so I can safely assume Watt will go first, and higher than Allen did last year. The question is when. I dont want to miss out on him, I feel like that type of advantage is too huge. Im not quite convinced you can make an argument against taking him in the rd 3-5 range is a reach. But the type of players going off in the 5th round are not nearly as hard to replace points wise at whatever position they play as this guy is.

Not arguing to argue, just trying to make a better case for taking an IDP player that early.

I don't feel like its similar at all, the gap between the #1 DL and the #12 DL is gonna be smaller than the #1 TE and the #12 TE, in addition to that the DL player pool is much deeper giving you even more options than compared to TE.

If you feel like you can't pass on him then don't but consider the reach, I think before the 5th is just too high unless your tiers fall apart mid draft.

Re: t

TE 1-12 gap being bigger. It's not. I showed you that in the post you quoted.

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Not the gap between Watt and the TE12... between Graham and the TE12.

But from the numbers you just threw out, if Watt outscored Graham by 105 pts last year (which was a down year for Graham and a monster year from Watt) then take him where you want, from the sound of it the scoring system is weighted in a way that I can't understand.

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I understood what you meant.

Watt- 255, Abraham (DL 12) 122 - 133 difference

Graham- 150.2, Gates (TE 12) 97.8 - 52.8 difference

Grahams points will be easier to make up as well.

the top 12 Te's scored

150, 144, 143, 133, 122, 116, 111, 110, 107, 106, 100, 98 (97.8 from Gates)

The top 12 DL scored

255, 151, 136, 128, 127, 125, 125, 124, 124, 122, 121, 119 (Abraham)

If you notice, they score a about the same, slightly better than TE's as well towards the bottom. But this is part of my reasoning for taking him potentially. After Watt, and the #2, there is a pretty steep drop off, similar to the top 5 TE's, The next 6-9 TE's are all about the same guy, as are the #3-20 DL's.

Does this change your opinion at all, or would you still wait some?

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IDP scoring

Tck, 1

ast tck, .5

sac, 3

int, 4

FF, 4

FR, 4

Def TD, 6

Safety, 6

Pass Def'd, 1

Blocked Kick, 6

TFL, 2

Turnover return yds, 10 yd/ 1 pt

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