Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
I get what you are saying, but what players at 42 do you think will really be more impactful? Especially at RB?I'm in the same camp. I can't imagine spending serious draft capital on Foster coming off groin surgery when I could be using it on players I plan to lean on week in, week out. Foster is one of the best RBs in the league, no doubt, but when his biggest red flag is already being waved I'll largely pass..even in the 5th. I think the market reaction has been appropriate.I disagree. Foster going into the season healthy would still be back of the first round early second material because he tends to get hurt or worse, flirts with GTD and puts his owners in a bind. Now you have the situation where he started the season hurt, and worse, it is a groin injury (something that tends to linger). So the overreaction (taking him down to the 7th round) was probably spot on in the idea that he became a better version of the late round handcuff who can explode (Ryan mathews et al). Now he looks like he will be gone about the same amount of time as Lev bell (maybe a game or two more) but, unlike bell, he is still a back who has hammy and groin issues and who seemed to be on the injury report every week last year.
That makes him a RB#2 who you better have another option for. Somewhere in the 5s is about right at this point. I am picking 12th in a league tomorrow and have to decide do I want him at 4.01 or am I essentially not getting him. Don't see him getting to 5.12.
RBs
Melvin Gordon (maybe)
Latavius Murray
Carlos Hyde
Andre Ellington
Jonathan Stewart
Joseph Randle
WRs
Andre Johnson
Amari Cooper
Julian Edelman
Golden Tate
Keenan Allen
DeSean Jackson
Jeremy Maclin
Sammy Watkins
TE
Greg Olsen
Travis Kelce
QB
Roethlisberger
Ryan
Romo
Brady
There are a few guys (especially Allen and the TEs, and possibly Ellington). It also depends on what you want to do at QB.
I think that the exact draft spot that you have will play a role in the strategy. My belief is that at pick 19 (and leagues will vary), that the top 9 RBs will be gone. I don't feel great about McCoy, Forsett or Miller, at least not better than I do about Calvin Johnson or AJ Green, who I think could be there. There there is what I would call the second tier of the top WRs, with Cobb and Hilton headlining. If I can get one of them at 22, then I would still rather do that than McCoy, Forsett or Miller. So I would ideally grab an RB at pick 2, and 2 WRs at 19 and 22. (If any of the top 9 RBs slid, then I would have to make a different decision.)
Then coming back at 39 and 42, I think that I want Olsen, and at that point, I think that I am just as happy to try to take my chances with Ivory, Martin, Blount, Crowell at 59/62, and cobble together the first few weeks at RB2 with any of them, plus maybe DeAngelo and Alfred Blue snapped up later.