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Jordy Nelson

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Jordy is the son of a farmer and country strong. I have no worries about him in 2016. I believe he'll return to form. Some will point out that he will be 31 next season but I've seen too many WRs remain effective into their mid 30s. I'm counting on 3 more solid years of WR1 production from Jordy staring in 2016.

Thing is, how many of those WRs suffered torn ACLs while in their 30s?

There's a pretty significant difference between a torn ACL at 24 and a torn ACL at 30. Not only does recovery itself take longer, but a 30 year old will lose more of his physical abilities at 30 than if he was 24. And as everyone knows, the older you get, the harder it is to get it back.

I think Jordy has a pretty decent shot to get back to form, but there is no chance I am valuing him as though it's a certainty.

I understand the numbers and agree with what you're saying. He will be a great value draft next year who has a very good chance at WR1, imo. That's what's great about Jordy in 2016. And you just know Rodgers will have a chip after the below expected numbers he put up this season. He's a great buy in dynasty as well if you can get him relatively cheap.

So while I agree he's definitely not a lock, I will be drafting Jordy a ton next year. I think the trend in ACL recovery has rapidly improved in the last 5 years even.

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Jordy is the son of a farmer and country strong. I have no worries about him in 2016. I believe he'll return to form. Some will point out that he will be 31 next season but I've seen too many WRs remain effective into their mid 30s. I'm counting on 3 more solid years of WR1 production from Jordy staring in 2016.

Thing is, how many of those WRs suffered torn ACLs while in their 30s?

There's a pretty significant difference between a torn ACL at 24 and a torn ACL at 30. Not only does recovery itself take longer, but a 30 year old will lose more of his physical abilities at 30 than if he was 24. And as everyone knows, the older you get, the harder it is to get it back.

I think Jordy has a pretty decent shot to get back to form, but there is no chance I am valuing him as though it's a certainty.

I understand the numbers and agree with what you're saying. He will be a great value draft next year who has a very good chance at WR1, imo. That's what's great about Jordy in 2016. And you just know Rodgers will have a chip after the below expected numbers he put up this season. He's a great buy in dynasty as well if you can get him relatively cheap.

So while I agree he's definitely not a lock, I will be drafting Jordy a ton next year. I think the trend in ACL recovery has rapidly improved in the last 5 years even.

I do not see him as a great value play next year. If he is all set to be back week 1 then I see people drafting him darn near where he was before the injury. Not saying that is a bad pick, but I don't see it as any sort of "value pick".

When you say he is a great buy if you can get him cheap, what kind of price are you talking? Projected late future 1st? Sure, I would pay that. I can't see people selling for that though

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Jordy is the son of a farmer and country strong. I have no worries about him in 2016. I believe he'll return to form. Some will point out that he will be 31 next season but I've seen too many WRs remain effective into their mid 30s. I'm counting on 3 more solid years of WR1 production from Jordy staring in 2016.

Thing is, how many of those WRs suffered torn ACLs while in their 30s?

There's a pretty significant difference between a torn ACL at 24 and a torn ACL at 30. Not only does recovery itself take longer, but a 30 year old will lose more of his physical abilities at 30 than if he was 24. And as everyone knows, the older you get, the harder it is to get it back.

I think Jordy has a pretty decent shot to get back to form, but there is no chance I am valuing him as though it's a certainty.

I understand the numbers and agree with what you're saying. He will be a great value draft next year who has a very good chance at WR1, imo. That's what's great about Jordy in 2016. And you just know Rodgers will have a chip after the below expected numbers he put up this season. He's a great buy in dynasty as well if you can get him relatively cheap.

So while I agree he's definitely not a lock, I will be drafting Jordy a ton next year. I think the trend in ACL recovery has rapidly improved in the last 5 years even.

I do not see him as a great value play next year. If he is all set to be back week 1 then I see people drafting him darn near where he was before the injury. Not saying that is a bad pick, but I don't see it as any sort of "value pick".

When you say he is a great buy if you can get him cheap, what kind of price are you talking? Projected late future 1st? Sure, I would pay that. I can't see people selling for that though

I think people will avoid Jordy in the first few rounds of redraft. If he can be had in rounds 4+, I'd consider that a good value.

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I would agree. I don't see him making it to round 4 anywhere though, unless there is some sort of bad news about the knee close to draft time

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If he hasn't been hurt he'd have been a late first, early second in redraft. His 2014 numbers (1519/13) would have made him wr4 this year - ahead of Allen Robinson 1400/14, Odell Beckham (1450/13) and DeAndre Hopkins (1521/11).

The drop off after Hopkins is significant. Baldwin had 1069/14, aj green 1297/10, and Calvin 1219/9.

To be fair, 2014 was a career year for Jordy. His previous highs were 1314/8 and the 1263/15, so 1519/13 is probably the high end of his range. So let's conservatively give him 1263/8 - the worst of his yardage and worst of his tds in his last three full seasons.

That would still have put him in the top 10 receivers. And I'd take him over Calvin or Baldwin, and probably consider him over aj green.

But maybe you wouldn't. Would you out him in the next tier? The guys after that have warts too. Fitzgerald disappears when the other two guys blow up. Demaryius should still be good, but isn't quite great anymore. Decker was as consistent as it gets, but won't win games on his own. Cooks and Watkins are blossoming, but still streaky. Ty Hilton should bounce back. I like Nelson over all those guys, but I can understand someone putting him in this tier.

Then you get into Hurns, Landry, Maclin, Emanuel sanders territory. You can't put him this low, can you?

How many of these receivers would you take ahead of him?

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Redraft only ( to avoid longevity differences), how do you rate Nelson vs. Benjamin? Both had similar injuries at about the same time. Do you expect Benjamin's recovery to be significantly better than Nelson's?

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Nelson 2014 - 98 rec 1519 yds 13 tds

Kelvin 2014 - 73 rec 1008 yds 9 tds

I get that Benjamin was a rookie but you're asking a lot

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Redraft only ( to avoid longevity differences), how do you rate Nelson vs. Benjamin? Both had similar injuries at about the same time. Do you expect Benjamin's recovery to be significantly better than Nelson's?

One is a proven stud WR. The other is a tall guy who caught a lot of jump balls from Cam.

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For those that go nuts in best ball drafts that start pretty much day after Super Bowl, I wonder where he goes? Benjamin too...

I hope to get in one or two of those as soon as the FFPC opens them up, will let you know :)

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Redraft only ( to avoid longevity differences), how do you rate Nelson vs. Benjamin? Both had similar injuries at about the same time. Do you expect Benjamin's recovery to be significantly better than Nelson's?

Nelson WAY ahead of Benjamin in redraft for 2016.

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Packers' Jordy Nelson: 'Far ahead' in rehab
  • by RotoWire Staff


  • Tuesday, Jan 19, 2016






































GB.png

During Monday's media session, head coach Mike McCarthy told Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com that Nelson will "come back better than ever. He's so far ahead of the rehab."


Since Nelson suffered a torn ACL in his right knee during the preseason, he was only seen on the Packers' sideline during the recently-concluded season. Following confirmation from McCarthy that Nelson's recovery is progressing well, the wide receiver seems on pace to be ready for training camp. However, Nelson turns 31 in May, so it's a legitimate question to wonder if he'll regain the explosiveness that was sorely missing from Green Bay's receiving corps in 2015.


















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Redraft only ( to avoid longevity differences), how do you rate Nelson vs. Benjamin? Both had similar injuries at about the same time. Do you expect Benjamin's recovery to be significantly better than Nelson's?

Nelson WAY ahead of Benjamin in redraft for 2016.

I agree. Just trying to put some of this "Nelson is old, ACL will be hard to recover from" talk in perspective. Seems like most people aren't as gloom and doom as they were coming across earlier in thread.

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Redraft only ( to avoid longevity differences), how do you rate Nelson vs. Benjamin? Both had similar injuries at about the same time. Do you expect Benjamin's recovery to be significantly better than Nelson's?

Nelson WAY ahead of Benjamin in redraft for 2016.

I agree. Just trying to put some of this "Nelson is old, ACL will be hard to recover from" talk in perspective. Seems like most people aren't as gloom and doom as they were coming across earlier in thread.

I am one of the people saying that.

Which is why I said IF we don't hear anything bad about the knee when the season is getting close then I would have Nelson way ahead. I wouldnt have Benjamin really high in redraft even if he never tore his ACL.

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Sounds like Jordy is hoping to be able to participate at OTA's in a month.  How is everyone feeling about him for 2016?

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I do not see "stud" this year out of Jordy.  Should be good though, but is almost certainly going to be overdrafted IMO

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7 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

I do not see "stud" this year out of Jordy.  Should be good though, but is almost certainly going to be overdrafted IMO

Nelson will be overdrafted, Cobb will be underdrafted.  Between them they'll come close to their previous totals.

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I like Jordy a lot for the next several years. WRs have proven to be valuable well into their mid 30s. Jordy will turn 31 at the end of the month and I think we see another 3-5 years of WR1 production 

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1 hour ago, Rhythmdoctor said:

I like Jordy a lot for the next several years. WRs have proven to be valuable well into their mid 30s. Jordy will turn 31 at the end of the month and I think we see another 3-5 years of WR1 production 

Who is the last 35 year old wr you saw with elite production?  Seems awfully rare

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6 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Who is the last 35 year old wr you saw with elite production?  Seems awfully rare

Steve Smith comes to mind as one recently who's done well at an advanced age. Not quite WR 1 stats though.

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Top of my head: TO, Reggie Wayne and Smitty all had productive seasons through at least age 34. Jordy won't be 35 until his 5th season from now. 

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9 minutes ago, Rhythmdoctor said:

Top of my head: TO, Reggie Wayne and Smitty all had productive seasons through at least age 34. Jordy won't be 35 until his 5th season from now. 

4th season from now, but still.  That's two guys.  IE, rare

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1,000 yards receiving is not elite but had to use some measuring stick. Ran the data dominator, going back to 1960 we've seen a 35 year old WR go for over 1,000 yards 17 times andI think 13 different WR's did it. Some odd names in the group like Joey Galloway has had two of the top 5 yardage seasons for 35+ year old Wr's and a guy labeled a bust in Irving Fryar did it once.

 

Looks to me like 6 of them went over 250 fantasy points(PPR of course), Cris Carter having the best post-35 fantasy season.

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2 minutes ago, menobrown said:

1,000 yards receiving is not elite but had to use some measuring stick. Ran the data dominator, going back to 1960 we've seen a 35 year old WR go for over 1,000 yards 17 times andI think 13 different WR's did it. Some odd names in the group like Joey Galloway has had two of the top 5 yardage seasons for 35+ year old Wr's and a guy labeled a bust in Irving Fryar did it once.

 

Looks to me like 6 of them went over 250 fantasy points(PPR of course), Cris Carter having the best post-35 fantasy season.

Good find.  What percentage of WRs with multiple 1000+ yard seasons remained productive into their age 33,34,35 years?  That's what we'd really want to look at for Jordy comps I think.

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i know im looking to target him in redraft this year. i have cobb in a dynasty so im not actively looking to buy nelson but what sent an offer for him so what is a value check on him in ppr? i expect 2-3 years of solid production because of rodgers. not league specific just off the top thoughts.

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Just now, Arodin said:

Good find.  What percentage of WRs with multiple 1000+ yard seasons remained productive into their age 33,34,35 years?  That's what we'd really want to look at for Jordy comps I think.

I was actually just checking on that because for me I just feel like most start to fall off around 33,34 with a few rare exceptions and of course most don't make it that far. What I just looked at kind of added a lot of credence to this idea.

 

Again just using 1,000 yards which I know is not elite but have to find a measuring stick:

 

You have 55 occurrences of a WR aged 33 or older who went for 1,000+.  That was to much for me to count the duplicate players who did it, but it's happened 55 times.

That number drops to 38 for WR's aged 34 or older  and of course down to 17 for 35 or older.

You could say it's occurring more these days, only one WR did it before 1981 for instance and he was 34.  But Steve Smith is only 35 year old to go over 1,000 since 2009 with Boldin in 2014 and Wayne in 2012 doing it as 34 year olds.

 

 

 

 

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I think Nelson may be underdrafted as people fear the injury and I see a great season ahead for him and back to being Green Bay's #1 fantasy WR.  He's been running since December and based on reports from back then all signs were looking better than expected.  It's been all positive since too.  Guy has been rehabbing his ### off, but with Jordy work ethic has never been an issue.  

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I said that imo Jordy will be a WR1 for the next 3-5 years. Thats a range of 33-35 years old for Jordy taking the extreme end of that doesn't really do much for the argument.

I'll say it another way. I'm pretty confident that Jordy will be a WR1 for at least 3 seasons (through his age 33 season), anything more than that would be a bonus but definitely doable since he has the best QB in the league throwing to him. For dynasty purposes, there's no reason to plan or count on him past age 33 at this point anyways. 

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Why are we using 1,000 yards as some measuring stick?  If Jordy ends up with 1000 yards that is probably like 60 receptions for him.  He would need a lot of TDs to be scoring WR1 with 1000 yards. 

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I would like to see the analysis on WRs who have had multiple 1,000 yard seasons and how they did in  their age 33, 34 and/or 35 seasons.  Players get hurt mid-season and taking total stats won't account for that.  A better gauge would be fantasy ppg.  

For dynasty purposes - which is the angle I'm coming from - I don't really care if he's WR1 or borderline WR2.  If he's in the top 20 (assuming he plays every game) when he's 34, 35 years old, I'm ecstatic.  I think he will most definitely be in that top 12-15 range for the next 3 years, barring injury of course.

 

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30 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

4th season from now, but still.  That's two guys.  IE, rare

Counting 101:

1st season (2016) = 31

2nd = 32

3rd = 33

4th = 34

5th = 35

Edited by Rhythmdoctor

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3 minutes ago, Rhythmdoctor said:

I would like to see the analysis on WRs who have had multiple 1,000 yard seasons and how they did in  their age 33, 34 and/or 35 seasons.  Players get hurt mid-season and taking total stats won't account for that.  A better gauge would be fantasy ppg.  

For dynasty purposes - which is the angle I'm coming from - I don't really care if he's WR1 or borderline WR2.  If he's in the top 20 (assuming he plays every game) when he's 34, 35 years old, I'm ecstatic.  I think he will most definitely be in that top 12-15 range for the next 3 years, barring injury of course.

 

This would be best, with something like a minimum of 10 games played or something.

But, if anyone is valuing him as a WR1 for the next 3-4 years, SELL SELL SELL

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8 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

Why are we using 1,000 yards as some measuring stick?  If Jordy ends up with 1000 yards that is probably like 60 receptions for him.  He would need a lot of TDs to be scoring WR1 with 1000 yards. 

Like I said need some measuring stick. PPR fantasy stats would be best, site does not compute stats that way. Did the best I could.

 

Personally I still view 33-34 as most likely decline ages, but any WR is still productive at 32 I tend to take year to year. I would never assume I'm getting 3-4 years of production from a 31 year old WR, a chance, but most likely not and far from likely it's elite but more like solid WR2 stuff.

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I won't speak for his 35 year old season (or even 34 or 33) but if Aaron Rodgers is his QB for the next two seasons then I'm buying.

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no matter what anyone's age is it's hard to predict anything more than 3 years out.  the nfl can change fast.  

for the next couple years though, i'd buy jordy.  

Edited by beef
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I am a Bears homer and I have to say, Jordy definitely reminds me of Steve Smith with more gas in the tank. There's no way around the fact that the guy is a tough SOB and a damn hard worker. You want 52 guys on your team with that work ethic. As long as he can put his legs under him, he will be productive in fantasy

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Mike Garafolo ✔@MikeGarafolo

Jordy Nelson said he's on PUP because he tweaked his other knee while working out. "It's not the ACL. No one needs to freak out."

12:27 PM - 26 Jul 2016

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Furthering the age and production discussion, over the past 4 seasons, the #12 fantasy WR has scored between 170 and 175 fantasy points (0 ppr scoring). Since some folks feel Nelson will remain a fantasy WR1 moving forward, here are the number of players at the age listed that have scored 170 points or more in a season (since 1960):

Age 31: 19
32: 14
33: 7
34: 8
35: 2
36 or older: 0

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1 hour ago, Anarchy99 said:

Furthering the age and production discussion, over the past 4 seasons, the #12 fantasy WR has scored between 170 and 175 fantasy points (0 ppr scoring). Since some folks feel Nelson will remain a fantasy WR1 moving forward, here are the number of players at the age listed that have scored 170 points or more in a season (since 1960):

Age 31: 19
32: 14
33: 7
34: 8
35: 2
36 or older: 0

It would be interesting to see how many from age 27 or so did it so we can see where the cliff is. Or if there is a cliff.

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On 5/5/2016 at 6:11 PM, Rhythmdoctor said:

I like Jordy a lot for the next several years. WRs have proven to be valuable well into their mid 30s. Jordy will turn 31 at the end of the month and I think we see another 3-5 years of WR1 production 

Name a couple

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There are several reasons why this method of evaluation might be somewhat sketchy, but since you asked . . .

Age 30: 19
29: 33
28: 33
27: 44
26: 46
25: 45
24: 33
23: 23
22: 7
21: 2
20: 0

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ESPN's Ed Werder reports Jordy Nelson left knee issue is tendinitis, and "not (currently) viewed as serious."

Per Werder, the issue is believed to be the result of Nelson "overcompensating during rehab" from his torn right ACL. Minor side ailments are common as players return from serious injuries like ACL and Achilles' tears, but can often linger. The Pack are putting on a brave face about Nelson's Week 1 status, but it shouldn't be taken for granted.

Rotoworld
 
:unsure:
Edited by Skanker
Source

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14 hours ago, purestrength said:

Janis, Adams or Montgomery? Who is the handcuff if Jordy is forced to miss time?

I'm going with not Adams.

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this news can only help me get him at the price where I hope he will slide...

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2 hours ago, mphtrilogy said:

this news can only help me get him at the price where I hope he will slide...

I'm thinking of selling now, tbh. Which is a bummer since I had both him and Lacey and chose to deal Lacey first.

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Tendinitis has people tripping out?
I'm not worried about him lasting for 6 more years, as a guy with tendinitis in my jerk it wrist, a simple pain killer and anti inflammatory the day of the game will do a professional athlete just fine for the season. I'm pretty sure dynasty people arent expecting anything more than one or two good years anyways.

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