What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Jordy Nelson (2 Viewers)

Seeing him projected to go in first round but very little talk about him. 
Really? I have the 2.08 (20th) and he's always there every time I mock. He's gone by the time it comes back around to 3.05 (29th) - every time.

What I'm seeing on the three sites I have mocked at is the 1st round seems pretty settled for 11 of the 12 spots. Same 5 RBs (DJ, Gurley, Elliott, ADP, Miller), same 5 WRs (Big 3 + Nuk + Green), and Gronk. 12th guy is usually Dez late first, maybe Marshall, or A-Rob, or a 6th RB. 

Pretty much the same pattern for the 2nd: same cluster of 4-7 RBs same 4-7 WRs, occasional Cam pick. Then around the time RB1 panic sets in somebody takes Jordy as their WR2.

:shrug:

 
Really? I have the 2.08 (20th) and he's always there every time I mock. He's gone by the time it comes back around to 3.05 (29th) - every time.

What I'm seeing on the three sites I have mocked at is the 1st round seems pretty settled for 11 of the 12 spots. Same 5 RBs (DJ, Gurley, Elliott, ADP, Miller), same 5 WRs (Big 3 + Nuk + Green), and Gronk. 12th guy is usually Dez late first, maybe Marshall, or A-Rob, or a 6th RB. 

Pretty much the same pattern for the 2nd: same cluster of 4-7 RBs same 4-7 WRs, occasional Cam pick. Then around the time RB1 panic sets in somebody takes Jordy as their WR2.

:shrug:
Yup. In the middle of a slow draft and I grabbed him as my WR2 at 2.11 as the 15th WR off the board in a league where the lineups favor WRs.

 
ESPN's Ed Werder reports Jordy Nelson left knee issue is tendinitis, and "not (currently) viewed as serious."

Per Werder, the issue is believed to be the result of Nelson "overcompensating during rehab" from his torn right ACL. Minor side ailments are common as players return from serious injuries like ACL and Achilles' tears, but can often linger. The Pack are putting on a brave face about Nelson's Week 1 status, but it shouldn't be taken for granted.
Rotoworld
 
:unsure:
That seems to be a classic Rotoworld post.  Facts above are in green and baseless, pull it out of your ***, word salad in red. 

 
Jordy Nelson - WR - Packers


Packers activated WR Jordy Nelson (knee) off the PUP list.
Nelson spent the first two-plus weeks out of practice with tendinitis in his non-surgically repaired knee. He was cleared after passing his physical, but will be worked back slowly. Nelson's return is good news for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense. He remains on track for Week 1.

 
 
 
Aug 17 - 5:46 PM

 
What are people projecting for him this year?  Assuming healthy, can he grab 10 TDs this year?  Is a line of 80/1000/10 reasonable?  Haven't seen much discussion on him honestly.

 
What are people projecting for him this year?  Assuming healthy, can he grab 10 TDs this year?  Is a line of 80/1000/10 reasonable?  Haven't seen much disceussion on him honestly.
I don't do projections but I think a line of 80/1000/10 is not only reasonable but on the low end yardage wise.  Thats projecting 12.5 ypc when he posted 15.5 in both 2013 and 14. and is over 15 ypc for his career.  I would bump the yardage up at least 200 and I also expect him to go over 80 receptions.  TDs are always hard to predict but over his last 60 games Nelson is averaging almost 0.72 TDs per or 11.46 per 16 games.  I think 10 is a very reasonable number.  I'm higher on Jordy than most though.  

He's 31 but I believe the data suggests that trend is a mini drop off for WRs around 32 with more significant decline coming around 34.  Either way I think he still has a lot left in the tank. His game is based on long speed, size, body positioning, and great timing with arugably THE most accurate QB in the game.  That bodes better for him sustaining production into his 30s than if his game was based more on quickness and suddeness IMO. And he'll have over a full year from the ACL where seemingly athletes are coming back sooner and closer to form than they ever have thanks to advances in surgery, rehab, training, etc.

I like Jordy a lot and think he's good value right now.  I do expect his ADP/price to creep up as the are more indications on his health over the next week or two.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I don't do projections but I think a line of 80/1000/10 is not only reasonable but on the low end yardage wise.  Thats projecting 12.5 ypc when he posted 15.5 in both 2013 and 14. and is over 15 ypc for his career.  I would bump the yardage up at least 200 and I also expect him to go over 80 receptions.  TDs are always hard to predict but over his last 60 games Nelson is averaging almost 0.72 TDs per or 11.46 per 16 games.  I think 10 is a very reasonable number.  I'm higher on Jordy than most though.  

He's 31 but I believe the data suggests that trend is a mini drop off for WRs around 32 with more significant decline coming around 34.  Either way I think he still has a lot left in the tank. His game is based on long speed, size, body positioning, and great timing with arugably THE most accurate QB in the game.  That bodes better for him sustaining production into his 30s than if his game was based more on quickness and suddeness IMO. And he'll have over a full year from the ACL where seemingly athletes are coming back sooner and closer to form than they ever have thanks to advances in surgery, rehab, training, etc.

I like Jordy a lot and think he's good value right now.  I do expect his ADP/price to creep up as the are more indications on his health over the next week or two.
Nice post.  I knowingly dropped expectations for ypc to keep the projections conservative, but I agree it's probably closer to floor than to ceiling.

 
Nice post.  I knowingly dropped expectations for ypc to keep the projections conservative, but I agree it's probably closer to floor than to ceiling.
Yeah, I see the reasoning behind being conservative in projecting a 31 year old WR coming off a missed season for an ACL.  But, and maybe I'm just foolish or have personal bias from owning him in redrafts in the past, I fully expect Jordy to pick up where he left out in 2014.  90 receptions 1300 yards and double digit TDs are what I'm looking for.

I really like the value of Jordy in the 2nd and Demaryius in the 3rd right now.  Overall but particularly for teams that don't go WR in the first.

 
Been debating about keeping him as my third keeper behind A. Brown and ODB.  Was going Cam up until recently-this thread had kind of changed my mind.  Thanks all.

 
What is everyone's confidence level here?  He's going pretty high for someone who just came off an ACL injury and didn't make a preseason appearance.  Oh, and is 31.  

His current ADP (from FFC) shows as the 11th WR off the board which seems high.  I'm asking because given my estimates he's very likely to fall to my second pick in a 14 team PPR that has scoring rules that favor WRs.  Do we really trust him about the same as Mike Evans (9th off the board) or Amari Cooper (12th off the board)?  Also in this range is Dez Bryant (10th, and I'm not liking his spot either), Alshon Jeffery (13th), Brandin Cooks (14th), and Jarvis Landry (15th).

I read somewhere (and I can re-find it) that players coming off ACL tears *on average* have their stats drop by 1/3 the following season.  Does that pass the sniff test?

 
Not surprised at all.  They'll ease him in just like they're easing in Charles.  Both will be must starts by mid-season but neither will live up to their lofty ADP.

 
Jordy Nelson confirmed he's talked with the Packers' coaches about being on a potential snap count for Week 1 against the Jaguars.

"We're not going to put a number on it," Nelson said. "We've discussed it. I think the situation of being in Jacksonville, we'll play it by snap-by-snap to be honest with you. But seeing how the possessions are taken, seeing what the weather is like, I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of guys are rotating to stay fresh." Even if Nelson is only in on 60-70 percent of the snaps, he's still a must-start this week in a game with shootout potential and a 48.5-point total.

Source: Green Bay Press-Gazette

 
caught only one of four targets for nine yards in Thursday's 26-10 win over the Bears.

On a night where the trio of Davante Adams, Randall Cobb and Ty Montgomery saw a combined 44 targets, Nelson was shockingly the forgotten man. His one reception prevented him from being shut out of the stat sheet altogether for the first time since November 4, 2012 in a game versus the Cardinals. Aaron Rodgers was simply able to find the aforementioned receivers on a consistent basis, but given Nelson's track record and rapport with the quarterback, Thursday's overall pass distribution has to be considered an outlier. Nelson will look to bounce back to his customary numbers when the Packers take on the Falcons in what could turn into a Week 8 shootout.

 
The back shoulder throw for 8-12 yards that they often did in the past isn't working as he and 12 aren't in sync enough. 

His deep catches were often off play action, and no decent defense will let this Packer team fool them as there is no run threat. 

 
Targets:

Adams 16

Cobb 15

Montgomery 13

Janis 5

Nelson 4

Short passes = de facto run game

Rush Att:

Montgomery 9

Cobb 5

FB 3

2 HBs 4 (2 each)

Rodgers was throwing to the first guy who came open. They have no run game so they used (2 weeks in a row) the short passing game to sustain drives.

Shocking lack of playmakers on the Pavk right now. Eventually they wore the Bears down but the first 20 or so plays they ran in the RZ = 0 TDs. Finally woke up after the Bears DT TD.

 
He was a decoy against the Bears.. Looks like the Bears would shade a safety his way and if he was lined up left, Rodgers just looked only to his right for Adams or Cobb on a short route.  

For Jordy owners, hopefully, it's not a sign of things to come without Lacy - maybe it'll improve when Starks is back.   Yikes.

 
Jordy owner in my league is making noises about wanting to trade him away. Anyone else done any trades for him recently ?

 
Jordy owner in my league is making noises about wanting to trade him away. Anyone else done any trades for him recently ?
I traded Jordy when he first came back from his injury. I got a 2017 1st, 2nd and 1st for 2018. (Dynasty).

Tex

 
I owned Nelson throughout his career it seemed like there's always one game trickle in there were he was just used as a decoy but when he came back the following weeks he was unstoppable.......BUT that was pre-injury AND he is 31 IIRC so take it for what it is.

Tex

 
Last edited by a moderator:
TartanLion said:
Jordy owner in my league is making noises about wanting to trade him away. Anyone else done any trades for him recently ?
Traded Crowell and Shephard two weeks ago for Jordy.  Thought I got a steal...now not so sure.

 
As my season for the league that I own Jordy in is now over, I'm considering my options for older players. 

I can't help but think that this his trade value will never be as high as it now. Are other owners thinking about possible trades, or just planning to ride him for a couple more season?

 
As my season for the league that I own Jordy in is now over, I'm considering my options for older players. 

I can't help but think that this his trade value will never be as high as it now. Are other owners thinking about possible trades, or just planning to ride him for a couple more season?
I would agree there is no way his value ever increases from where it is now.  Deciding whether or not to trade him really depends on how your team is built.  Jordy strikes me as the kind of player who can play at a high level until 35 years old, but that's never a guarantee.  If you feel poised to make a run in the next 2 years, I'd say you are better off keeping him than trading him.  If your league is like mine, guys will balk at his age and low ball their offers.  Best you can do is probably a late 1/early 2.  I'd rather use his top 10 WR points.

The best time to trade him was about three weeks ago when guys were looking to bolster their lineup for a playoff run.  I've found people are willing to pay more when they have a legitimate shot at winning.  

 
jmo87usc said:
I would agree there is no way his value ever increases from where it is now.  Deciding whether or not to trade him really depends on how your team is built.  Jordy strikes me as the kind of player who can play at a high level until 35 years old, but that's never a guarantee.  If you feel poised to make a run in the next 2 years, I'd say you are better off keeping him than trading him.  If your league is like mine, guys will balk at his age and low ball their offers.  Best you can do is probably a late 1/early 2.  I'd rather use his top 10 WR points.

The best time to trade him was about three weeks ago when guys were looking to bolster their lineup for a playoff run.  I've found people are willing to pay more when they have a legitimate shot at winning.  




 
Thanks for the response. As this is turning into more of a trade strategy discussion, I've started a thread in the FFA. Appreciate any input.

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/752163-trade-jordy-nelson/

 
(fantasypros) Jordy Nelson left Sunday's game against the Falcons with a quad injury early in the first quarter. Nelson was visibly in pain after running a curl route on the Packers' second possession. After leaving the field, Nelson never returned and was deemed out shortly after.

Analysis: An update to Nelson's status for this Sunday's game at home versus Cincinnati will be made to the public this Wednesday afternoon. Start making roster adjustments now by targeting Geronimo Allison, who would be the beneficiary of any time missed by Nelson.

 
Adam schefter just tweeted:

"Packers WR Jordy Nelson's quad strain is not considered serious but he is "50-50" for Sunday vs. Bengals, per source."

 
And here we go for the next 6 weeks, gametime decision. He should play, well maybe not, looks good at practice, well maybe not, won't play,will play, maybe, should, not sure

 
And here we go for the next 6 weeks, gametime decision. He should play, well maybe not, looks good at practice, well maybe not, won't play,will play, maybe, should, not sure
So you would've preferred that he tore his quad and was placed on IR?  This  seems like the best possible news for Jordy, no? :oldunsure:

 
Was really my only concern with Jordy this year.  He's just getting to the age where these injuries are more likely to occur.

 
Hawkeye21 said:
Was really my only concern with Jordy this year.  He's just getting to the age where these injuries are more likely to occur.
?? Let me smash your quad with a knee and see how it feels. I'm pretty sure that hurts at any age.

 
Last edited by a moderator:

Users who are viewing this thread

Top