Ilov80s
Footballguy
I wouldn't touch him until he is practicing consistently.Seeing him projected to go in first round but very little talk about him.
I wouldn't touch him until he is practicing consistently.Seeing him projected to go in first round but very little talk about him.
Uuuummm, not trying to be funny buuuutttt....we are talking about a white elite WR!4th season from now, but still. That's two guys. IE, rare
By who? He could start practicing tomorrow and catch 5 TD's in preseason games and I'm still not drafting him in the first two rounds.Seeing him projected to go in first round but very little talk about him.
Gritty, a student of the game and a hard worker, brings his lunch pail to work every day.Dude is farm strong, I think he'll be fine.
Really? I have the 2.08 (20th) and he's always there every time I mock. He's gone by the time it comes back around to 3.05 (29th) - every time.Seeing him projected to go in first round but very little talk about him.
Yup. In the middle of a slow draft and I grabbed him as my WR2 at 2.11 as the 15th WR off the board in a league where the lineups favor WRs.Really? I have the 2.08 (20th) and he's always there every time I mock. He's gone by the time it comes back around to 3.05 (29th) - every time.
What I'm seeing on the three sites I have mocked at is the 1st round seems pretty settled for 11 of the 12 spots. Same 5 RBs (DJ, Gurley, Elliott, ADP, Miller), same 5 WRs (Big 3 + Nuk + Green), and Gronk. 12th guy is usually Dez late first, maybe Marshall, or A-Rob, or a 6th RB.
Pretty much the same pattern for the 2nd: same cluster of 4-7 RBs same 4-7 WRs, occasional Cam pick. Then around the time RB1 panic sets in somebody takes Jordy as their WR2.
That seems to be a classic Rotoworld post. Facts above are in green and baseless, pull it out of your ***, word salad in red.ESPN's Ed Werder reports Jordy Nelson left knee issue is tendinitis, and "not (currently) viewed as serious."
Per Werder, the issue is believed to be the result of Nelson "overcompensating during rehab" from his torn right ACL. Minor side ailments are common as players return from serious injuries like ACL and Achilles' tears, but can often linger. The Pack are putting on a brave face about Nelson's Week 1 status, but it shouldn't be taken for granted.
Rotoworld
I don't do projections but I think a line of 80/1000/10 is not only reasonable but on the low end yardage wise. Thats projecting 12.5 ypc when he posted 15.5 in both 2013 and 14. and is over 15 ypc for his career. I would bump the yardage up at least 200 and I also expect him to go over 80 receptions. TDs are always hard to predict but over his last 60 games Nelson is averaging almost 0.72 TDs per or 11.46 per 16 games. I think 10 is a very reasonable number. I'm higher on Jordy than most though.What are people projecting for him this year? Assuming healthy, can he grab 10 TDs this year? Is a line of 80/1000/10 reasonable? Haven't seen much disceussion on him honestly.
Nice post. I knowingly dropped expectations for ypc to keep the projections conservative, but I agree it's probably closer to floor than to ceiling.I don't do projections but I think a line of 80/1000/10 is not only reasonable but on the low end yardage wise. Thats projecting 12.5 ypc when he posted 15.5 in both 2013 and 14. and is over 15 ypc for his career. I would bump the yardage up at least 200 and I also expect him to go over 80 receptions. TDs are always hard to predict but over his last 60 games Nelson is averaging almost 0.72 TDs per or 11.46 per 16 games. I think 10 is a very reasonable number. I'm higher on Jordy than most though.
He's 31 but I believe the data suggests that trend is a mini drop off for WRs around 32 with more significant decline coming around 34. Either way I think he still has a lot left in the tank. His game is based on long speed, size, body positioning, and great timing with arugably THE most accurate QB in the game. That bodes better for him sustaining production into his 30s than if his game was based more on quickness and suddeness IMO. And he'll have over a full year from the ACL where seemingly athletes are coming back sooner and closer to form than they ever have thanks to advances in surgery, rehab, training, etc.
I like Jordy a lot and think he's good value right now. I do expect his ADP/price to creep up as the are more indications on his health over the next week or two.
Yeah, I see the reasoning behind being conservative in projecting a 31 year old WR coming off a missed season for an ACL. But, and maybe I'm just foolish or have personal bias from owning him in redrafts in the past, I fully expect Jordy to pick up where he left out in 2014. 90 receptions 1300 yards and double digit TDs are what I'm looking for.Nice post. I knowingly dropped expectations for ypc to keep the projections conservative, but I agree it's probably closer to floor than to ceiling.
Jordy Nelson confirmed he's talked with the Packers' coaches about being on a potential snap count for Week 1 against the Jaguars.
"We're not going to put a number on it," Nelson said. "We've discussed it. I think the situation of being in Jacksonville, we'll play it by snap-by-snap to be honest with you. But seeing how the possessions are taken, seeing what the weather is like, I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of guys are rotating to stay fresh." Even if Nelson is only in on 60-70 percent of the snaps, he's still a must-start this week in a game with shootout potential and a 48.5-point total.
Source: Green Bay Press-Gazette
I traded Jordy when he first came back from his injury. I got a 2017 1st, 2nd and 1st for 2018. (Dynasty).Jordy owner in my league is making noises about wanting to trade him away. Anyone else done any trades for him recently ?
Traded Crowell and Shephard two weeks ago for Jordy. Thought I got a steal...now not so sure.TartanLion said:Jordy owner in my league is making noises about wanting to trade him away. Anyone else done any trades for him recently ?
I would agree there is no way his value ever increases from where it is now. Deciding whether or not to trade him really depends on how your team is built. Jordy strikes me as the kind of player who can play at a high level until 35 years old, but that's never a guarantee. If you feel poised to make a run in the next 2 years, I'd say you are better off keeping him than trading him. If your league is like mine, guys will balk at his age and low ball their offers. Best you can do is probably a late 1/early 2. I'd rather use his top 10 WR points.As my season for the league that I own Jordy in is now over, I'm considering my options for older players.
I can't help but think that this his trade value will never be as high as it now. Are other owners thinking about possible trades, or just planning to ride him for a couple more season?
Thanks for the response. As this is turning into more of a trade strategy discussion, I've started a thread in the FFA. Appreciate any input.jmo87usc said:I would agree there is no way his value ever increases from where it is now. Deciding whether or not to trade him really depends on how your team is built. Jordy strikes me as the kind of player who can play at a high level until 35 years old, but that's never a guarantee. If you feel poised to make a run in the next 2 years, I'd say you are better off keeping him than trading him. If your league is like mine, guys will balk at his age and low ball their offers. Best you can do is probably a late 1/early 2. I'd rather use his top 10 WR points.
The best time to trade him was about three weeks ago when guys were looking to bolster their lineup for a playoff run. I've found people are willing to pay more when they have a legitimate shot at winning.
https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/topic/759171-jordy-nelson/ check out thiswhat happened? i didnt see the game.
So you would've preferred that he tore his quad and was placed on IR? This seems like the best possible news for Jordy, no?And here we go for the next 6 weeks, gametime decision. He should play, well maybe not, looks good at practice, well maybe not, won't play,will play, maybe, should, not sure
?? Let me smash your quad with a knee and see how it feels. I'm pretty sure that hurts at any age.Hawkeye21 said:Was really my only concern with Jordy this year. He's just getting to the age where these injuries are more likely to occur.