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Jordy Nelson

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OK thats fair- the only issue is that with a very strong start... you have to predict a lower average than you originally projected the rest of the way to end the season at your original position. I dont see how a strong start justifies a downgrade for the rest of the way just to make your numbers consistent.

Dodds isn't projecting full season stats at this point. He's projecting rest-of-season stats.

Let's say I believed before the season that Eddie Royal was going to average 50 yards and 0.25 scores per game, which would work out to 800/4. Now, Eddie Royal's had a phenomenal start, but let's say I think it was a complete fluke, and I still believe he's a 50/0.25 a game receiver. In this case, I would predict him for 50/0.25 for the rest of the season (13 games), but my prediction for his full season would have risen from 800/4 (my original projection) to 800/8 (13 games of my 50/0.25 projection, plus what he already put up in his first 3 games). In this case, even if Dodds is keeping his per-game projections static, his season-long projections for Nelson have to be rising to account for the good games he's already had.

Also worth pointing out that Dodds has warmed to Nelson a little bit. Dodds had Nelson ranked 22nd in non-PPR before the season, and he's moved Nelson up to 17th in non-PPR today. Still not high enough, in my opinion, but it's not like he's just plugging his fingers in his ears and screaming "neener neener neener".

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Goootcha. Makes sense in that light.

:hifive:

So, with that cleared up... Dodds has Nelson too low. I can't name 12 WRs I'd rather have in non-PPR leagues.

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Can someone @ FBG explain to me why Jordy is ranked WR21? He's behind Torrey, Decker, Colston, etc...

Jordy is the 3rd highest scoring WR after three weeks and the most targeted WR for the best QB in the league... criminally underrated. He should be WR12 minimum. His health is obviously not an issue and he will continue to see tons of deep shots down the field, as well as goal-line looks, once Lacy is back and there is a threat of the run game.

Anyone who has watched him play can attest that he is catching everything that comes his way. He has displayed some amazing body control and athleticism so far this year. On several catches he had to torque his body around to get the ball, then somehow managed to keep both feet in bounds only inches from the sideline. He's been more impressive-looking than Cobb so far.

No, they really cannot explain it. It has to be a mistake, and that should be the answer.

A nit, but Nelson ranks 21st depending on scoring system. In standard FBGs scoring (= no PPR), Nelson ranks 17th. Still low, but not as low. In TD-heavy scoring, Nelson jumps to 14th. So the projections seem to be that Nelson is going to have a lot of touchdowns, a good amount of yards, and not many receptions- which seems like an accurate profile for Jordy Nelson.

Dodds is the guy who compiles the going forward list, and he's extremely thorough. He actually makes rest-of-season projections for every single player and basically creates a brand new VBD list every single week. There have been errors in the spreadsheet before, but for the most part, if a player is ranked somewhere, it's usually because Dodds meant to rank him there.

If I had to guess Dodds' reasons, I'd imagine it'd probably start with the fact that Nelson is currently in an 8-way tie for 35th in targets with just 23 through three games. Cobb has 33, and James Jones has 22. Nelson has been lighting the league on fire because his per-target stats are absolutely insane (78% catch rate on a whopping 16+ yards per reception, good for 12.7 yards per target). If one projects Nelson's per-game targets to remain constant, but his per-target numbers to regress by 25-33% (to a still-huge but reasonable 9-10 yards per target), then I can see how one could reasonably expect Nelson to come back to earth. I wouldn't personally project that, but I can understand why someone else might. I happen to agree that Nelson is too low, but I thought Nelson was too low before the season, too.

Looking at the different projected point totals and doing a little bit of working backwards, it looks like Dodds has Nelson projected for somewhere in the neighborhood of 57 receptions, 860 yards, and 6-7 TDs going forward, which would put him around 75/1150/10 over the full season. Low, but not indefensibly so. Nelson is a top 5 receiver today, but look at the top 10 receivers through three weeks last year: Green, Calvin, Wallace, Julio, Torrey Smith, Austin, Amendola, Bowe, Wayne, and Stevie Johnson. Of those 10 guys, only four (FOUR!) ranked in the top 20 from weeks 4-17 (Calvin, Green, Julio, Wayne). Of those four, only Calvin and Green ranked in the top 10. It seems crazy to be saying that a guy who is top 5 today will not be top 20 the rest of the way, but it's not crazy at all. In fact, it's incredibly common.

Even though you have a good response and most of it is sound. I'm in a Non-PPR league and he's ranked #3. Injury aside I'd be willing to bet he finishing in the top 10 vs the top 20.

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Can someone @ FBG explain to me why Jordy is ranked WR21? He's behind Torrey, Decker, Colston, etc...

Jordy is the 3rd highest scoring WR after three weeks and the most targeted WR for the best QB in the league... criminally underrated. He should be WR12 minimum. His health is obviously not an issue and he will continue to see tons of deep shots down the field, as well as goal-line looks, once Lacy is back and there is a threat of the run game.

Anyone who has watched him play can attest that he is catching everything that comes his way. He has displayed some amazing body control and athleticism so far this year. On several catches he had to torque his body around to get the ball, then somehow managed to keep both feet in bounds only inches from the sideline. He's been more impressive-looking than Cobb so far.

No, they really cannot explain it. It has to be a mistake, and that should be the answer.

A nit, but Nelson ranks 21st depending on scoring system. In standard FBGs scoring (= no PPR), Nelson ranks 17th. Still low, but not as low. In TD-heavy scoring, Nelson jumps to 14th. So the projections seem to be that Nelson is going to have a lot of touchdowns, a good amount of yards, and not many receptions- which seems like an accurate profile for Jordy Nelson.

Dodds is the guy who compiles the going forward list, and he's extremely thorough. He actually makes rest-of-season projections for every single player and basically creates a brand new VBD list every single week. There have been errors in the spreadsheet before, but for the most part, if a player is ranked somewhere, it's usually because Dodds meant to rank him there.

If I had to guess Dodds' reasons, I'd imagine it'd probably start with the fact that Nelson is currently in an 8-way tie for 35th in targets with just 23 through three games. Cobb has 33, and James Jones has 22. Nelson has been lighting the league on fire because his per-target stats are absolutely insane (78% catch rate on a whopping 16+ yards per reception, good for 12.7 yards per target). If one projects Nelson's per-game targets to remain constant, but his per-target numbers to regress by 25-33% (to a still-huge but reasonable 9-10 yards per target), then I can see how one could reasonably expect Nelson to come back to earth. I wouldn't personally project that, but I can understand why someone else might. I happen to agree that Nelson is too low, but I thought Nelson was too low before the season, too.

Looking at the different projected point totals and doing a little bit of working backwards, it looks like Dodds has Nelson projected for somewhere in the neighborhood of 57 receptions, 860 yards, and 6-7 TDs going forward, which would put him around 75/1150/10 over the full season. Low, but not indefensibly so. Nelson is a top 5 receiver today, but look at the top 10 receivers through three weeks last year: Green, Calvin, Wallace, Julio, Torrey Smith, Austin, Amendola, Bowe, Wayne, and Stevie Johnson. Of those 10 guys, only four (FOUR!) ranked in the top 20 from weeks 4-17 (Calvin, Green, Julio, Wayne). Of those four, only Calvin and Green ranked in the top 10. It seems crazy to be saying that a guy who is top 5 today will not be top 20 the rest of the way, but it's not crazy at all. In fact, it's incredibly common.

Even though you have a good response and most of it is sound. I'm in a Non-PPR league and he's ranked #3. Injury aside I'd be willing to bet he finishing in the top 10 vs the top 20.

I meant that Nelson ranks 21st in Dodds' projections going forward depending on scoring system. Dodds has him ranked 21st in PPR, 17th in standard, and 14th in TD-heavy. In terms of scoring to date, Nelson ranks top-5 in pretty much all formats.

Also, Nelson's strong start means he's likely to finish ranked higher, but you can't get those points from the first three weeks again. If one guy scores 100 points in the first 3 weeks and 50 points the rest of the way, and another guy scores 10 points in the first 3 weeks and 100 points the rest of the way, I'd rather have the second guy, even though the first guy will finish much higher than him in end-of-season standings. End-of-season rankings are less important today than rest-of-season rankings.

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What a great season this hasd been.

Moving on from the now thankfully retired Seneca Wallace.

Jordy now plays with Tolzien and maybe who knows possibly eventually Flynn.

I'm benching my good friend for now.

So maybe Rodgers returns week 14 - great. Maybe he returns week 16, too late to help?

Anyone trading Jordy?

Edited by SaintsInDome2006

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I posted this elsewhere, but he made a phenomenal non-catch that really could've been a TD. I think he really is a fine play with Tolzien. He's not the mega-WR1, but he certainly still has WR1 upside with a much lower floor. Who else can you nab to take his place? Rishard Matthews? That's fine, but he's starting for my Roddy White. :kicksrock:

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I posted this elsewhere, but he made a phenomenal non-catch that really could've been a TD. I think he really is a fine play with Tolzien. He's not the mega-WR1, but he certainly still has WR1 upside with a much lower floor. Who else can you nab to take his place? Rishard Matthews? That's fine, but he's starting for my Roddy White. :kicksrock:

and uplifting is the 2 endzone targets...the one "non-catch" that was very close (yes, he rolled over the ball...had it been ruled a TD, it may very well have remained that way...oh well)...and the other INT was targeted at him too...Tolzien just threw it to the inside.

That with a QB who took like 9 snaps in practice that week.

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:cry: so much for this prediction

:ptts:

GREEN BAY PACKERS PASSING OFFENSE AT DETROIT LIONS PASSING DEFENSE (GREAT MATCHUP)

Back on October sixth, the Lions and the Packers engaged in a duel of (mostly) field goals, with Detroit coming out a loser (9-22). Mason Crosby kicked five field goals while Aaron Rodgers threw 20/30 for 274 yards passing, one TD and zero interceptions. Unfortunately, Rodgers is still nursing his broken collarbone and all reports indicate that he is unlikely to play in this rematch.

Scott Tolzien ran in a TD last week but was benched for ineffective passing (7/17 for 98 yards), leading the Packers to return Matt Flynn to the field, where he once again displayed the game-day form that earned him millions of dollars in contracts from Seattle and Oakland. He threw 21/26 for 218 yards, one TD and zero interceptions and now the Packers have a mini-quarterback controversy on their hands. The coaching staff is being coy about who'll start, but Flynn took the first team reps in Tuesday's practice and looks like the guy who'll get the call on Thanksgiving. Regardless of who was under center, the top three receivers last week were James Jones (12 targets for 7/80/0 receiving), Jarrett Boykin (10 for 5/60/10) and Jordy Nelson (seven for 4/58/0).

The Lions' pass D is 28th in the NFL this year averaging 276.8 net yards allowed per game, with a hefty 21 passing scores given away compared to 11 interceptions (17th in the NFL) and 20 sacks (29th) generated to date. Mike Glennon was sacked four times for -40 yards last week and still managed 14/21 for 207 net yards, two TDs and zero interceptions thrown, while Ben Roethlisberger bombed Detroit for 29/45 yielding 358 net yards, four TDs and zero interceptions two games ago.

Advantage, Green Bay. Also, note that Eddie Lacy has a tough matchup in the rushing phase, so if Green Bay is going to move the ball effectively they'll likely need to throw the ball early and often in this game.

Weather: Inside Ford Field weather won't impact either team.

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I'm just gonna say: starting Jordy today was dumb.

Matt Flynn was and has become revealed as a withered noodle arm QB who should not be leading an NFL team into battle.

Seattle did not want him as a backup. Oakland had had enough, would rather have Ty Wilson ... whom they just cut. Buffalo said "hey let's go with Thad Lewis, and hey after that maybe Jeff Tuel might do something."

The matchup on paper today was terrific, in reality it was based on a macaroni elbow with no hope.

Jordy should have been benched from the minute Wallace came in as starter and there he should have stayed.

That is all.

Edited by SaintsInDome2006

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I'm stuck starting Jordy this weekend but not feeling good about as all signs point to Flynn as QB. Hopefully being at home against a weak Falcons team produces okay numbers.

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Think I'm going to throw Cooper in for Jordy this week. Flynn looked so inept.

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Wish I had other options but hes still better than anything on the ww

Agreed. And trust me I took a lonnnnnnnnnnng look

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Wish I had other options but hes still better than anything on the ww

Agreed. And trust me I took a lonnnnnnnnnnng look

I wish this weren't all true.

I can get Baldwin, if I wanted?

Again, this whole team needs Rodgers back. Let's hope it's next week.

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Wish I had other options but hes still better than anything on the ww

Agreed. And trust me I took a lonnnnnnnnnnng look

I wish this weren't all true.

I can get Baldwin, if I wanted?

Again, this whole team needs Rodgers back. Let's hope it's next week.

Baldwin is on my ww too but I still like jordy better. I wish they would go back to tolzien. At least jordy had one good game with him.

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Trying to decide between Jordy and Roddy. Jordy is definitely the better WR, but I don't trust Matt Flynn at all. At least Matt Ryan is a good QB, even though I have no idea what to expect from Roddy.

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Trying to decide between Jordy and Roddy. Jordy is definitely the better WR, but I don't trust Matt Flynn at all. At least Matt Ryan is a good QB, even though I have no idea what to expect from Roddy.

Easy call, I would go with Roddy, especially if you have an advantage and you want to protect points. Jordy could have a big game or come up empty like last week. Roddy also has upside as well.

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Just traded for him, starting him with full confidence. 6/85/0 is my hope.

No trade deadline?

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I think I'm sticking with Jordy. Flynn has had a full week to prepare. Falcons D stinks. Should be able to put up at least 5-70-1

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I don't see this working out well unless the offense makes a concerted effort to get the ball to him - ie screens, short slants, etc. He is such a technical receiver but he also needs a QB that can get him the ball. He's not the "go get it guy" but if you throw it in his radius there are not many receivers with better hands. I could be wrong, and I hope I am since I am starting him, but the Packers need to get him involved to win.

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Watch Flynn come through against a bad defense and make jordy fantasy relevant again...in everyone's bench.

Isnt that the way this stupid game works?

I'm struggling BW jordy/Stacy (vs ari) /miller (vs Pitt).

I want to put jordy in my flex so badly given Stacy's matchup but my goodness Flynn is bad. And it seems like all confidence he once had is gone too.

But there is something telling me that this is a game he will come up big in.

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I don't see this working out well unless the offense makes a concerted effort to get the ball to him - ie screens, short slants, etc. He is such a technical receiver but he also needs a QB that can get him the ball. He's not the "go get it guy" but if you throw it in his radius there are not many receivers with better hands. I could be wrong, and I hope I am since I am starting him, but the Packers need to get him involved to win.

Totally agree.

Rodgers and Nelson together define passing game precision.

I just don't see that taking place with Flynn.

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I'm starting Jordy, I could bench him for Andre Holmes but at the end of the day I can live with losing my playoff match up because Holmes went off on my bench while Jordy sucks. If the reverse happened and Jordy goes off on my bench it would haunt me for weeks.

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Thinking of putting Jordy in over Floyd. Palmers elbow making me nervous but starting to think the Packers whooop it up in the cold temps today.

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Im having trouble benching Jordy since last week was really his only bad game since Rodgers has been out, and ATL's D is awful.

...but if I start him, that means Keenan Allen or Vereen are going to be on my bench. I hate these decisions.

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Rotoworld:

ESPN's Rob Demovsky reports the Packers would like to sign contract-year WR Jordy Nelson to an extension "sooner rather than later."

Demovsky adds that the Packers want to extend Nelson before opening up talks with Randall Cobb. Nelson, 29, is due $2.55 million in the final year of his contract. He's been one of the top receivers in the league playing with Aaron Rodgers the last three seasons and could command $10 million annually. Green Bay has $13.64 million in 2014 cap space. There's more than enough room for the sides to get a long-term deal done prior to training camp.
Source: ESPN.com

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ESPN Packers reporter Rob Demovsky reports walk-year WR Jordy Nelson is seeking "at least" $10 million per season in long-term talks.

Nelson has no intention of handing out another discount. Nelson has been one of the league's most underpaid players since signing his four-year, $13.989 million deal in the fall of 2011. The $10 million demand shouldn't surprise the Packers, who have roughly $13 million in cap space. A deal could be worked out before Week 1.
Source: ESPN.com
Jul 24 - 2:17 PM

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ESPN Packers reporter Rob Demovsky reports walk-year WR Jordy Nelson is seeking "at least" $10 million per season in long-term talks.

Nelson has no intention of handing out another discount. Nelson has been one of the league's most underpaid players since signing his four-year, $13.989 million deal in the fall of 2011. The $10 million demand shouldn't surprise the Packers, who have roughly $13 million in cap space. A deal could be worked out before Week 1.
Source: ESPN.com
Jul 24 - 2:17 PM

4 years/$33.5M would give him the $10M he wants for 2015-17 with him having the same base salary this year.

Get it done.

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I seriously don't think he wants to end up with a 2 year/$15M deal like Decker and playing for the Jets.

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ESPN Packers reporter Rob Demovsky reports walk-year WR Jordy Nelson is seeking "at least" $10 million per season in long-term talks.

Nelson has no intention of handing out another discount. Nelson has been one of the league's most underpaid players since signing his four-year, $13.989 million deal in the fall of 2011. The $10 million demand shouldn't surprise the Packers, who have roughly $13 million in cap space. A deal could be worked out before Week 1.
Source: ESPN.com
Jul 24 - 2:17 PM

4 years/$33.5M would give him the $10M he wants for 2015-17 with him having the same base salary this year.

Get it done.

With the Packers drafting WRs, feels like Nelson might not be in the long term plans.

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ESPN Packers reporter Rob Demovsky reports walk-year WR Jordy Nelson is seeking "at least" $10 million per season in long-term talks.

Nelson has no intention of handing out another discount. Nelson has been one of the league's most underpaid players since signing his four-year, $13.989 million deal in the fall of 2011. The $10 million demand shouldn't surprise the Packers, who have roughly $13 million in cap space. A deal could be worked out before Week 1.
Source: ESPN.com
Jul 24 - 2:17 PM

4 years/$33.5M would give him the $10M he wants for 2015-17 with him having the same base salary this year.

Get it done.

With the Packers drafting WRs, feels like Nelson might not be in the long term plans.

This team knows its best when it has at least three legit receiving options. Them drafting WRs was both to replace Jones and as insurance against Cobb or Jordy (or both) walking. I can't see them letting Jordy walk, I think they resign both.

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Don't see him getting a 10 mil per type deal.

Just don't see TT paying an older WR that type of money.

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My gut feeling is that one of Nelson or Cobb will not be back after this year. A team that seems to always have needs on defense drafted 3 WR during the draft this year. It just seems to be more than a how do we replace James Jones move. Hopefully Boykin can fill a role, Adams can fill a spot, and one of Cobb/Nelson are back.

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My gut feeling is that one of Nelson or Cobb will not be back after this year. A team that seems to always have needs on defense drafted 3 WR during the draft this year. It just seems to be more than a how do we replace James Jones move. Hopefully Boykin can fill a role, Adams can fill a spot, and one of Cobb/Nelson are back.

IIRC, isn't this Boykin's last yr of his contract?

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Don't see him getting a 10 mil per type deal.

Just don't see TT paying an older WR that type of money.

Major sell high red alert unless Cobb wants more. He will go the way of Greg Jennings and former Bronco Eric Decker if he leaves the Pack. From stud WR to bum.

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Don't see him getting a 10 mil per type deal.

Just don't see TT paying an older WR that type of money.

Major sell high red alert unless Cobb wants more. He will go the way of Greg Jennings and former Bronco Eric Decker if he leaves the Pack. From stud WR to bum.

The Packers offered Jennings $8M a year but he decided to chase the money. If Nelson is smart he comes to an agreement that keeps him in GB, even if it's a little less than $10M.

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Don't see him getting a 10 mil per type deal.

Just don't see TT paying an older WR that type of money.

Major sell high red alert unless Cobb wants more. He will go the way of Greg Jennings and former Bronco Eric Decker if he leaves the Pack. From stud WR to bum.
Can we see Decker play a game with the Jets before we call him a bum?
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Don't see him getting a 10 mil per type deal.

Just don't see TT paying an older WR that type of money.

Major sell high red alert unless Cobb wants more. He will go the way of Greg Jennings and former Bronco Eric Decker if he leaves the Pack. From stud WR to bum.

The Packers offered Jennings $8M a year but he decided to chase the money. If Nelson is smart he comes to an agreement that keeps him in GB, even if it's a little less than $10M.

Though in fairness, the cap has gone up $10m since then, and it's projected to make HUGE gains in the next year or two. So $10m in today's financial environment probably isn't too far off from $8m last year.

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Don't see him getting a 10 mil per type deal.

Just don't see TT paying an older WR that type of money.

Major sell high red alert unless Cobb wants more. He will go the way of Greg Jennings and former Bronco Eric Decker if he leaves the Pack. From stud WR to bum.

The Packers offered Jennings $8M a year but he decided to chase the money. If Nelson is smart he comes to an agreement that keeps him in GB, even if it's a little less than $10M.

Though in fairness, the cap has gone up $10m since then, and it's projected to make HUGE gains in the next year or two. So $10m in today's financial environment probably isn't too far off from $8m last year.

Cap may increase but TT isn't giving a WR $10M/year. Brady won three super bowls with no name WRs. It's the QB and o-line that matters.

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