Resuscitating this thread for yesterday's Bears-Lions game, which featured ridiculously dumb calls by both coaches that ultimately became irrelevant.
First, Chicago scores with 12 minutes left in the game to make it 24-22, and Fox goes for one. He gets bailed out when Detroit quickly turns the ball over and Chicago scores again, this time going for two (and getting it).
Now it's 31-24. Lions drive down the field and have a 4th and 4 from the 15. Caldwell sends in the FG unit. Even the announcers, who are usually all "Ya gotta take the points here," are questioning this decision. But then Caldwell also gets bailed out when Detroit gets a quick stop, drives down the field and scores a go-ahead TD with 21 seconds left. And the announcers were like, "Well, I guess Caldwell was right after all."
NO! A positive outcome does not make it the right decision. Both were clearly sub-optimal (the
win probability chart bears this out. too. Going for one knocked 7% of the Bears' chances, and kicking the FG took 5% away from the Lions).