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Post here when coaches do something obviously stupid

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5 hours ago, Gally said:

Agree with this.  Based on that game in those conditions I believe the best chance the Cowboys had to win was to plan to go for it on 4th down if needed when it was 2nd and 7 and go for the TD on that drive.  That was their best chance all game to get in the endzone. 

That's a reasonable position to take, but kicking the FG isn't "obviously stupid." Regardless of the outcome of the 4th-and-7 play they need another score to win the game.

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19 hours ago, CalBear said:

That's a reasonable position to take, but kicking the FG isn't "obviously stupid." Regardless of the outcome of the 4th-and-7 play they need another score to win the game.

But without getting a TD they had no chance to win the game.  A TD extends the game a FG does not.  The Cowboys never got that close for a TD the entire game other than that one instance.  Based on the way the game had unfolded planning to go for it on fourth and adjusting your play call on 2nd knowing you would go for it gives the best chance to extend the game. Kicking a FG did not give them that same opportunity.

Edited by Gally

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1 minute ago, Gally said:

But without getting a TD they had no chance to win the game.  A TD extends the game a FG does not.  The Cowboys never got that close for a TD the entire game other than that one instance.  Based on the way the game had unfolded planning to go for it on fourth and adjusting your play call on 2nd knowing you would go for it gives the best chance to extend the game. Kicking a FG did not give them that same opportunity.

I understand your argument. You apparently don't understand mine, which is that you need two scores to win the game, and that if you "never got that close again" you were going to lose, regardless. Kicking the FG means that if you get close again, you can win.

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26 minutes ago, CalBear said:

I understand your argument. You apparently don't understand mine, which is that you need two scores to win the game, and that if you "never got that close again" you were going to lose, regardless. Kicking the FG means that if you get close again, you can win.

I understand your argument.  I just don't agree that it is increasing your winning ability.

 

You have to get a lot closer to score a TD than a FG.  Especially with Maher's range with the wind.  A TD extends the game to give you opportunity at a second score.  A FG doesn't extend the game.  A TD does.

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59 minutes ago, Gally said:

I understand your argument.  I just don't agree that it is increasing your winning ability.

 

You have to get a lot closer to score a TD than a FG.  Especially with Maher's range with the wind.  A TD extends the game to give you opportunity at a second score.  A FG doesn't extend the game.  A TD does.

"Extending the game" doesn't matter if you never score again.

Your choice is to take an action which has a low probability of success (going for it on fourth and 7) but a greater payoff, vs. an action which has a high probability of success (28-yard FG) but a lesser payoff. It is not obviously stupid to choose either one.

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Cardinals down 10 with about 12 minutes to go.  4th and 2 at the Steelers 10-ish yardline.

Going for it.  Why?  Kick the FG and make it a 1 score game.  

Really Murray should have ran it for easy 1st down and maybe TD, but instead threw an INT.  Besides the point, was a dumb move

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1 hour ago, Joe Summer said:

4th-and-2 from the 10 you should go for it almost every time as a matter of principle.

Almost every time..........but not when you are down 2 scores and a FG makes it 1 score, or when you are up 1 score and a FG makes it 2 scores.

Edited by ghostguy123
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The play by play speaks for itself. Mixon was the only player to actually gain yardage. 6.2 ypc and Taylor goes full blown stupid.

Look at this garbage:

2nd & 7 at CLE 9

(6:21 - 3rd) J.Mixon right guard pushed ob at CLV 3 for 6 yards (J.Schobert).

3rd & 1 at CLE 3

(5:54 - 3rd) (Shotgun) A.Dalton pass incomplete short right to C.Uzomah (S.Redwine).

(5:52 - 3rd) Timeout #1 by CIN at 05:52.

4th & 1 at CLE 3

(5:52 - 3rd) (Shotgun) J.Mixon right guard to CLV 2 for 1 yard (D.Ward; J.Schobert).

1st & Goal at CLE 2

(5:34 - 3rd) (Shotgun) A.Dalton sacked at CLV 10 for -8 yards  SERIOUSLY!!!???!!! (sack split by L.Ogunjobi and B.Cox).

2nd & Goal at CLE 10

(4:50 - 3rd) (Shotgun) A.Dalton pass incomplete short right to G.Bernard.

3rd & 10 at CLE 10

(4:47 - 3rd) (Shotgun) A.Dalton pass incomplete short left to S.Morgan.

4th & Goal at CLE 10

(4:39 - 3rd) Randy Bullock 28 Yd Field Goal

Yep, gotta be tricky.

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On 12/8/2019 at 5:21 PM, ghostguy123 said:

Almost every time..........but not when you are down 2 scores and a FG makes it 1 score, or when you are up 1 score and a FG makes it 2 scores.

It's not a "2-score game". It's a 10-point game. That means you need 11 points to win. A FG, TD and XP only adds up to 10, so a FG means you still need two scores to win. A TD would give you the opportunity to win with only one more score, so getting a TD on that possession is much more valuable than getting a FG.

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5 minutes ago, CalBear said:

It's not a "2-score game". It's a 10-point game. That means you need 11 points to win. A FG, TD and XP only adds up to 10, so a FG means you still need two scores to win. A TD would give you the opportunity to win with only one more score, so getting a TD on that possession is much more valuable than getting a FG.

And if you convert the 4th and 2 there is obviously still no guarantee you score a TD on that drive. 

And of course a TD is more valuable there.  Seems obvious.

Make it a 1 score/possession game.  

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3 hours ago, ghostguy123 said:

And if you convert the 4th and 2 there is obviously still no guarantee you score a TD on that drive. 

And of course a TD is more valuable there.  Seems obvious.

Make it a 1 score/possession game.  

It's not a 1 score/possession game if you're down by 7. You need two scores to win.

The value of a TD down by 10 is far greater than the value of a FG down by 10. Of course there's no guarantee you'll make it on 4th and 2, but your chance of scoring a TD from 4th and 2 at the 10 is certainly greater than your chances of scoring a TD on a drive beginning with a punt reception in your own end. Or a kickoff return if the other team gets a FG (and requiring you to still get 10 points).

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15 hours ago, CalBear said:

It's not a "2-score game". It's a 10-point game. That means you need 11 points to win. A FG, TD and XP only adds up to 10, so a FG means you still need two scores to win. A TD would give you the opportunity to win with only one more score, so getting a TD on that possession is much more valuable than getting a FG.

It is a 2-score game from the pov that if you score the 10 you don't lose in regulation.  Yes, you have to score at least 11 to win, but you don't need all 11 in regulation.

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3 hours ago, bryhamm said:

It is a 2-score game from the pov that if you score the 10 you don't lose in regulation.  Yes, you have to score at least 11 to win, but you don't need all 11 in regulation.

Last I checked, getting 11 in regulation and winning is a lot better than getting 10 and going to OT. Like, you win approximately twice as often when you do that.

So if your chance of scoring a TD when going for it from fourth-and-2 at the 10 is at least 50%, you should clearly go for it. And it's a little better than that, because if you get the first down but don't get the TD in the next three downs, you can still kick the FG. Not to mention scenarios where you kick the FG and the other team goes down and kicks a FG to make it 10 again.

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9 minutes ago, CalBear said:

Last I checked, getting 11 in regulation and winning is a lot better than getting 10 and going to OT. Like, you win approximately twice as often when you do that.

So if your chance of scoring a TD when going for it from fourth-and-2 at the 10 is at least 50%, you should clearly go for it. And it's a little better than that, because if you get the first down but don't get the TD in the next three downs, you can still kick the FG. Not to mention scenarios where you kick the FG and the other team goes down and kicks a FG to make it 10 again.

ok.  virtually everyone else is saying the FG was the right call.  you are the sole voice saying otherwise.

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23 minutes ago, bryhamm said:

ok.  virtually everyone else is saying the FG was the right call.  you are the sole voice saying otherwise.

I believe CalBear is correct here on what the right analytics/statistical based call is.  I think this is one of those situations that is not intuitive, but the math plays out. 

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25 minutes ago, bryhamm said:

ok.  virtually everyone else is saying the FG was the right call.  you are the sole voice saying otherwise.

Virtually no one understands statistics, which is why multi-million dollar NFL coaches keep this thread alive year after year.

OK, according to the PFR calculator, the win probability at fourth and 2 with 12 minutes left is 11.9%.

Your win probability if you kick the FG and the other team gets it at the 20 after a kickoff is 11.4%.

The win probability at first and goal on the 8 is 22.1%. So getting the first down (not even scoring the TD) basically doubles your chance of winning. So if your chance of getting the first down is >50% you should definitely go for it. 

You want to know why your win probability goes down when you kick the FG? Once you do that, PFR has to discount the possibility that you went for it and got the TD, which was a better play.

 

Edited by CalBear
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23 minutes ago, bryhamm said:

ok.  virtually everyone else is saying the FG was the right call.  you are the sole voice saying otherwise.

I don't care to argue about these things so I haven't responded.  I was watching the game at that time the decision was made and thought it was the right call at the time and still do.

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5 minutes ago, CalBear said:

Virtually no one understands statistics, which is why multi-million dollar NFL coaches keep this thread alive year after year.

OK, according to the PFR calculator, the win probability at fourth and 2 with 12 minutes left is 11.9%.

Your win probability if you kick the FG and the other team gets it at the 20 after a kickoff is 11.4%.

The win probability at first and goal on the 8 is 22.1%. So getting the first down (not even scoring the TD) basically doubles your chance of winning. So if your chance of getting the first down is >50% you should definitely go for it. 

You want to know why your win probability goes down when you kick the FG? Once you do that, PFR has to discount the possibility that you went for it and got the TD, which was a better play.

 

By the way, if you get the TD, let's say with 1:00 off the clock, when the other team gets the ball at the 20 up by 3, your win probability has risen to 28.5%.

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16 hours ago, CalBear said:

It's not a 1 score/possession game if you're down by 7. You need two scores to win.

The value of a TD down by 10 is far greater than the value of a FG down by 10. Of course there's no guarantee you'll make it on 4th and 2, but your chance of scoring a TD from 4th and 2 at the 10 is certainly greater than your chances of scoring a TD on a drive beginning with a punt reception in your own end. Or a kickoff return if the other team gets a FG (and requiring you to still get 10 points).

I'm mostly with you on the TD/FG choice, but the bolded is pretty disingenuous.  While it's true that if you get one score to tie it, you still need another score to win, the same is true of the other team at that point -- they also need another score to win.

So the term "two score game" certainly does not apply equally to a 7 point deficit and a 9-16 point deficit.

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Going for it on 4th & 2 was probably the right call. It was definitely not something obviously stupid.

Going for it on 4th & 2 is often the right move, regardless of game situation.

And when you're down 10, scoring a TD is much better than scoring a FG (even though both cut it to a "one score game") because:

now you can take the lead with a TD instead of merely tying it up
now a FG is enough for you to tie the game; you don't need to score a TD
now allowing a FG to the other team will still leave you within 1 score of taking the lead, instead of putting you down by 2 scores

Edited by ZWK

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Giants coaches not having anyone covering the only real Threat at receiver the TE Zach Ertz in the back of the end zone in OT MNF. Probably worst coaching of the season not even close. Literally looked like the players quit on the field for NYG too 

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12 hours ago, DJackson10 said:

Giants coaches not having anyone covering the only real Threat at receiver the TE Zach Ertz in the back of the end zone in OT MNF. Probably worst coaching of the season not even close. Literally looked like the players quit on the field for NYG too 

Yeah I noticed that too. How do you blow the only coverage you need to care about?

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On 12/10/2019 at 3:53 PM, bryhamm said:

ok.  virtually everyone else is saying the FG was the right call.  you are the sole voice saying otherwise.

argumentum ad populum

going for it was the right call

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On 12/10/2019 at 3:53 PM, bryhamm said:

ok.  virtually everyone else is saying the FG was the right call.  you are the sole voice saying otherwise.

When asked, "virtually everyone" will say that after flipping a coin and getting tails 9 times in a row, the 10th flip is most likely to be heads. They'd be wrong.

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2 hours ago, apalmer said:

When asked, "virtually everyone" will say that after flipping a coin and getting tails 9 times in a row, the 10th flip is most likely to be heads. They'd be wrong.

Actually I think most people have figured this one out.    :shrug: 

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22 hours ago, fred_1_15301 said:

Actually I think most people have figured this one out.    :shrug: 

I think most people have learned to parrot back “still 50%.”  Not sure most people have learned the right answer, which is “bet tails.”  At least anecdotally from convenience sampling my Stats students they haven’t.

If it’s a fair coin, you lose nothing.  But you have substantial evidence on which to revise downward your assumed expectation the coin is fair.

 

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31 minutes ago, Arodin said:

I think most people have learned to parrot back “still 50%.”  Not sure most people have learned the right answer, which is “bet tails.”  At least anecdotally from convenience sampling my Stats students they haven’t.

If it’s a fair coin, you lose nothing.  But you have substantial evidence on which to revise downward your assumed expectation the coin is fair.

 

LOL.  That is not the right answer.  You're a stats professor and you're teaching students to fall into Gamblers Fallacy?  

Also, "bet tails" is the answer to a different question. You know the 10th flip is independent of the other 9 flips.  The odds are still 50 percent.  Your game theory move of betting tails is not wrong, but it's not based on the odds of the coin flip. 

What are the odds of a random coin being unfair in such a way?  A lot lower than hitting 9 tails in a row....

 

 

Edited by kittenmittens

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48 minutes ago, Arodin said:

I think most people have learned to parrot back “still 50%.”  Not sure most people have learned the right answer, which is “bet tails.”  At least anecdotally from convenience sampling my Stats students they haven’t.

If it’s a fair coin, you lose nothing.  But you have substantial evidence on which to revise downward your assumed expectation the coin is fair.

 

This is actually brilliant lol.  I hadn’t thought of it this way.

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27 minutes ago, kittenmittens said:

LOL.  That is not the right answer.  You're a stats professor and you're teaching students to fall into Gamblers Fallacy?  

Also, "bet tails" is the answer to a different question. You know the 10th flip is independent of the other 9 flips.  The odds are still 50 percent.  Your game theory move of betting tails is not wrong, but it's not based on the odds of the coin flip. 

What are the odds of a random coin being unfair in such a way?  A lot lower than hitting 9 tails in a row....

 

 

No, actually I don’t KNOW that the 10th flip is independent.  That’s a common assumption based on most coins being relatively fair.  And it’s that fact that the assunption can be called into question that changes the problem.  

The chances of 9 tails in a row on a fair coin is 1 in 512.  Not a huge number, but there are actually 3 possibilities:

1) Coin is fair, and I saw a rare event.  In that case, both outcomes are equally likely, it doesn’t matter what I pick.

2) Coin is weighted to tails (or even has two tails and is a trick coin).

3) Coin is weighted to heads and I saw an even more rare event.

As a statistician attempting to predict the future, I increase my chance of successful prediction above the default 50% if I can assess the relative likelihood of case 2 and case 3.  A run of 9 tails is enough to make 2 far more likely than 3, even if 1 is still by far the most common outcome.

So the correct answer is to guess tails, if you want to maximize the chance of correct prediction.

Don’t see where I taught the gambler’s fallacy.  That would be advocating heads because it was due.  I never did that.

Edited by Arodin

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If you aren't sticking to the coin and toss being fair, there are an infinite number of reasons the 10th flip might not be tails, including the weighted coin option, that the flipper is talented enough to influence the outcome by how he or she flips it, the coin landing with almost exact balance and coming to rest on in its edge, coin wedging into a crack, the flipper being accosted and robbed of the coin before flipping and nuclear holocaust obliterating the coin and participants. If the flipping isn't assumed as fair from the outset, the odds thereafter are incalculable. The fundamental assumption of the example is an assumption that the coin and toss are fair.

Notwithstanding, the odds slightly favored going for it and the coach's decision should have been (and probably was) based on whether he thought it more likely or less likely that they would get the 2 yards.

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14 minutes ago, Arodin said:

No, actually I don’t KNOW that the 10th flip is independent.  That’s a common assumption based on most coins being relatively fair.  And it’s that fact that the assunption can be called into question that changes the problem.  

The chances of 9 tails in a row on a fair coin is 1 in 512.  Not a huge number, but there are actually 3 possibilities:

1) Coin is fair, and I saw a rare event.  In that case, both outcomes are equally likely, it doesn’t matter what I pick.

2) Coin is weighted to tails (or even has two tails and is a trick coin).

3) Coin is weighted to heads and I saw an even more rare event.

As a statistician attempting to predict the future, I increase my chance of successful prediction above the default 50% if I can assess the relative likelihood of case 2 and case 3.  A run of 9 tails is enough to make 2 far more likely than 3, even if 1 is still by far the most common outcome.

So the correct answer is to guess tails, if you want to maximize the chance of correct prediction.

Don’t see where I taught the gambler’s fallacy.  That would be advocating heads because it was due.  I never did that.

I don't disagree with the logic in the right bet here, but I think it's mixing the situations.  

If you ask a random student the odds of the 10th coin flip, they are going to say 50 percent because that is the correct answer.  You didn't ask them what they would bet on.  Even factoring in the tiny probability that the coin is not fair, it's so close to 50 percent that you can't blame them for not saying 50.0000001 percent.  Everyone is going to assume a fair coin in that situation because by nature, coins are very reasonably assumed to be fair and that is a very common math problem in which we assume the coin is fair by default. I would need to see a lot more than 1 in 500 odds before I start wondering if that is a trick question. 

It's the equivalent giving them a different common math problem like how fast a train arrives, and then saying oh that answer is wrong because you have to factor in the train could get derailed, trains never getting derailed is a common assumption. 

The odds your coin isn't a normal coin seem to be more like 1 in millions rather than 1 in hundreds.  I think there is a huge difference between when odds of the next event are independent and when they are not, and your scenario comes dangerously close to a false dependence on prior outcomes/gamblers fallacy in terms of people who lack the an understanding of the nuances you understand.  They might not see the difference in how the sample size effects what you have illustrated.  They might start applying this thinking after 2 or 3 coin flips, when IMO you would need a few more than 9 in a row before the possibility that the coin flips are in fact not independent enters the equation. 

I was probably taking you more literally than you meant it as well.  Sorry to jump down your throat, my reaction was a little strong.  Thanks for explaining further. 

 

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I’m assuming I’m late the the “what the hell was Payton thinking going for 2 in a 13-7 game?!” party? 
 

Just ridiculous. 

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Shanahan kicking a 43-yd FG on 4th & 1 to go up 5 with just under 2 mins left.  One yard ends the game.  Instead gave them the ball with plenty of time and I believe two timeouts.  I might be wrong, but even as it was happening I was thinking how stupid it was to not try to end the game by getting one yard.  Maybe I’m the stupid one, or maybe Harbaugh has rubbed off on me too much by going for it on 4th so many times.  

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17 minutes ago, TheBottomLine said:

Shanahan kicking a 43-yd FG on 4th & 1 to go up 5 with just under 2 mins left.  One yard ends the game.  Instead gave them the ball with plenty of time and I believe two timeouts.  I might be wrong, but even as it was happening I was thinking how stupid it was to not try to end the game by getting one yard.  Maybe I’m the stupid one, or maybe Harbaugh has rubbed off on me too much by going for it on 4th so many times.  

He did the right think goin up 5. They had go 80 yards to score a TD. His D failed him miserably. 

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On the flipside. Saw a boot leg today. QB jogged into the endzone untouched. It was Tannehill coached by Vrabel who has been around long enough to know that the bootleg is a great play and an easy TD. Nothing tricky, just the play you roll out every once in a while because it works almost every time. These young punk so called offensive gurus probably don't even know that its called the bootleg let alone how to run it.

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13 hours ago, lod001 said:

He did the right think goin up 5. They had go 80 yards to score a TD. His D failed him miserably. 

Considering a 43-yard FG is hardly even a sure thing, I would have tried to pick up a yard to end the game.  He was 4 for 6 on the year from 40-49 yds, so I would also factor that in.  I'm getting a yard there, but I guess I'm the moron.  

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Punting when down 13 points with 3:40 remaining in the game.

I don't care where you are on the field, I don't care how many yards you need to gain to get the first down......DO NOT PUNT.

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29 minutes ago, Joe Summer said:

Punting when down 13 points with 3:40 remaining in the game.

I don't care where you are on the field, I don't care how many yards you need to gain to get the first down......DO NOT PUNT.

I dont think he was trying to win the game at this point.  I think he realized this game meant nothing and that he wanted to keep them from an embarrass loss.  Problem was that the embarrassment had ALREADY occurred!

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1 hour ago, Joe Summer said:

Punting when down 13 points with 3:40 remaining in the game.

I don't care where you are on the field, I don't care how many yards you need to gain to get the first down......DO NOT PUNT.

Meh.  I think your post would’ve fit better in this thread had you simply said “Pretty much everything Zimmer did this evening.”

Playing 8 yards off an elite WR with a corner that’s giving up an 85% completion rate when he’s targeted, a WR pass to a QB with zero plus athletic traits on 3rd and 4 from the GB 42, followed by a deep pass on an out and up on 4th and 4, both of those plays occurring up 10-6 with just over two minutes left in the half.  From there, GB easily nets a FG and only a FG because Adams dropped a sure TD.  Then on 3rd and 3 to start the 4th, they run the most disjointed end around(?) to Adam Theilen that had about a 2% chance of success.  I could go on, but the experience of that game was depressing enough.  That punt was about 8th on the list of idiotic things that coaching staff did.

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Zimmer did take a timeout at the start of the 4th after unsuccessfully trying to get GB to jump offsides on 4th & 1.  They were at their own 45 yard line, would think a timeout in that situation is much more valuable than the 5 yards from taking a delay. 

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LAC ran an end around with Keenan Allen. :lmao:  The guy is slow as molasses. You run an end around with fast guys, not slow possession WRs.

They lost 5 yards on the play. Where do these clowns get these ideas?

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2 hours ago, TheBottomLine said:

Zimmer did take a timeout at the start of the 4th after unsuccessfully trying to get GB to jump offsides on 4th & 1.  They were at their own 45 yard line, would think a timeout in that situation is much more valuable than the 5 yards from taking a delay. 

And then PUNTED :lmao:

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51 minutes ago, IHEARTFF said:

And then PUNTED :lmao:

That's beautiful. These are grown men who are actually getting paid for these bonehead moves.

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6 hours ago, TheBottomLine said:

Zimmer did take a timeout at the start of the 4th after unsuccessfully trying to get GB to jump offsides on 4th & 1.  They were at their own 45 yard line, would think a timeout in that situation is much more valuable than the 5 yards from taking a delay. 

 

3 hours ago, IHEARTFF said:

And then PUNTED :lmao:

 

2 hours ago, lod001 said:

That's beautiful. These are grown men who are actually getting paid for these bonehead moves.

The worst part was that they called time out with like 15 seconds left on the play clock.  Time to run the punt team on the field or just take the delay because those 5 yds didn't matter on a punt.  Just a terrible string of events.

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1 hour ago, Gally said:

The worst part was that they called time out with like 15 seconds left on the play clock.  Time to run the punt team on the field or just take the delay because those 5 yds didn't matter on a punt.  Just a terrible string of events.

I was with them on the punt when they were down 13, 4th and 24, 3:45 left, nearly got their top-flight receiver killed on a seam pattern the play before, sixth seed clinched.

Time to get some rest.

But that series at the beginning of the quarter was an abomination. 

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Surprised there's been no discussion of the end of the Niners-Seahawks game. I thought there was plenty of dumb decision-making to go around, starting with Shanahan's decision to punt on 4th and 1 with 2:34 left in the game. Yes, it was from their own 30, but this was just one more example of what has become my biggest pet peeve: coaches who punt on 4th and short (or kick a FG that keeps it a one-score game) and willingly give the ball back to the other team with a chance to win the game, instead of getting that yard and putting the other team away. In fact, Shanahan had done the same thing two weeks earlier vs. Atlanta, and it cost them the game. In Sunday night's case, the numbers said the punt cost the Niners two percentage points of win probability. (More qualitatively, they were giving the ball back to Russel Wilson, and their defense had not looked all that impressive in recent weeks.)

But obviously, the main wearer of goat horns from that game has to be Pete Carroll. The Ringer had a good rundown of all the ways he screwed up that final drive:

Quote

Let’s review what not to do when a game is on the line. The Seahawks (1) threw to a player who had never caught a pass before; (2) spiked away what may have been their best chance at punching the ball in the end zone; (3) called on a player who had been signed just days before, wasn’t ready, and wouldn’t be very useful in this specific situation anyway; (4) botched a goal-line substitution; and (5) lost track of the play clock. Not all of those mistakes are equal (and no. 1 even worked for the most part), but they all add up to one bitter loss.

 

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43 minutes ago, zftcg said:

But obviously, the main wearer of goat horns from that game has to be Pete Carroll. The Ringer had a good rundown of all the ways he screwed up that final drive:

Quote

Let’s review what not to do when a game is on the line. The Seahawks (1) threw to a player who had never caught a pass before; (2) spiked away what may have been their best chance at punching the ball in the end zone; (3) called on a player who had been signed just days before, wasn’t ready, and wouldn’t be very useful in this specific situation anyway; (4) botched a goal-line substitution; and (5) lost track of the play clock. Not all of those mistakes are equal (and no. 1 even worked for the most part), but they all add up to one bitter loss.

3, 4 & 5 are all just one big mistake, though.

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1 hour ago, zftcg said:

Surprised there's been no discussion of the end of the Niners-Seahawks game. I thought there was plenty of dumb decision-making to go around, starting with Shanahan's decision to punt on 4th and 1 with 2:34 left in the game. Yes, it was from their own 30, but this was just one more example of what has become my biggest pet peeve: coaches who punt on 4th and short (or kick a FG that keeps it a one-score game) and willingly give the ball back to the other team with a chance to win the game, instead of getting that yard and putting the other team away. In fact, Shanahan had done the same thing two weeks earlier vs. Atlanta, and it cost them the game. In Sunday night's case, the numbers said the punt cost the Niners two percentage points of win probability. (More qualitatively, they were giving the ball back to Russel Wilson, and their defense had not looked all that impressive in recent weeks.)

But obviously, the main wearer of goat horns from that game has to be Pete Carroll. The Ringer had a good rundown of all the ways he screwed up that final drive:

 

Shanny is absolutely brutal with his end of game management. Besides what you mentioned he should have been calling time outs right after the completion to Locket that moved the ball to the 11. By not doing so he left the team no time if the Seahawks scored. He did something similar in the Falcon game. He does seem to learn from his mistakes and continues to mismanage the end of games. But as Carroll showed it was contagious. Unbelievable. A billion dollar industry and these clowns can’t make the right decisions to give their teams the best chance to win.

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8 hours ago, [scooter] said:

3, 4 & 5 are all just one big mistake, though.

We have a running joke in my family dating back to when we were kids. My mom would be stressed out, and she would list all the reasons: "Your father has to work late and the house is a mess and I don't have anything to make for dinner", etc. And then she would close with "... and I have a headache and my head hurts." As if those were two different things.

9 hours ago, 32 Counter Pass said:

Shanny is absolutely brutal with his end of game management. Besides what you mentioned he should have been calling time outs right after the completion to Locket that moved the ball to the 11. By not doing so he left the team no time if the Seahawks scored. He did something similar in the Falcon game. He does seem to learn from his mistakes and continues to mismanage the end of games. But as Carroll showed it was contagious. Unbelievable. A billion dollar industry and these clowns can’t make the right decisions to give their teams the best chance to win.

That game obviously evoked a lot of memories of Super Bowl XLIX. I know there's been a lot of debate as to whether Belichick screwed up by not calling his timeouts at the end of the game. I don't think we'll ever know for sure, but I tend to lean on the side that says he had a plan. He recognized the moment seemed too big for Carroll, and he determined the Pats' best chance of winning was stopping Seattle rather than conceding the points. The biggest piece of evidence in support of that (other than him staring across at the Seattle timeline with that Cheshire Cat grin as time ticked away) was him inserting Butler into the game, having drilled him earlier in the week on defending the exact play that Seattle ended up running. IMO, he was in Carroll's head, and he knew exactly what he was doing.

Obviously, Shanny has not earned the same benefit of the doubt, so in the case of last week's game I'm more inclined to say he got lucky. But obviously, the clock was a big factor in terms of discombobulating Seattle in that final sequence, as well as their inability to hand the ball off to Lynch (even if they had been able to get him on the field in time). Point is, it may be that the smart play in a situation like that is to let the clock work in your favor as long as you're still ahead. I'd be curious to see what the numbers say (your defense's odds of stopping a first-and-goal drive compared to your offense's odds of completing a long scoring drive), and also if there are factors that the numbers can't properly measure, like the level of confusion you can sow on the opposing sideline. 

 

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