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QB Marcus Mariota, WAS (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
massraider
Footballguy
Whatever, maybe he makes some mistakes tomorrow night. Maybe Winston looks like a stud.
Not sure why this needs to be said every year, but everyone's 'locks' right now are probably going to look silly. None of the top draft guys have gotten any actual inside info from their sources yet, because teams haven't started stacking their boards yet. So their own boards haven't magically changed post-season. Which magically change the boards of everyone else.
Raider fans this time last year were bummed out that they won too many games to be in the Teddy Bridgewater hunt, he was a top 3 lock.
Touchdown Syndrome
Footballguy
This x 100.
This literally happens every single season...it's like people have never been witness to the NFL draft process before.
When was the last time that the top 5 "locks" in December ended up being the top 5 picks?
Manziel, Bridgewater, Matt Barkley, Geno Smith, Quinton Coples....all top 3-5 "locks" in december.
cstu
Footballguy
I've seen enough of Mariota that the Rose Bowl won't greatly change my opinion. He would have to bomb the game with a 50% completion rate and a couple of INT's.
Also, Bridgewater should have been a top 3 pick.
pantherclub
Footballguy
I have only seen like 3-4 complete games (if that much) of Mariota and I honestly havent a clue how he will translate into the NFL. He has a nice arm and seems fast but the offense he runs seems like it would be a wierd transistion to the NFL. I dont recall him staying in teh pocket a lot going through his reads. He just took off and ran.
I have seen plenty of Winston and I think he will be a good to great NFL qb as long as the team puts a handler on him for a couple years
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EBF
Footballguy
This. The idea that he's some kind of a lock elite franchise QB is silly at this point. Not to say he has no chance of becoming that player, but what he does at Oregon doesn't fit what he'll have to do in the NFL. At Oregon he throws out of the spread against minimal pass rush to wide open receivers and takes off running when things get messy. In the NFL, the pass rush will be exponentially more difficult and the passing windows will be a lot smaller. He'll still be able to run every now and then, but he won't be able to lean on that crutch nearly as often.
He has some legitimately good qualities and I think there's a chance that he'll become a franchise QB, but he's not Andrew Luck or even close. There's lots of bust risk here. If I were the fan of an NFL team sitting near the bottom of the standings, I'd be hoping that my team takes a safer player at another position rather than gambling on the huge risk of Mariota. For that matter, I'm not convinced Winston won't be rated higher when the dust settles. He's not as mobile, but he's much less reliant on his legs and Florida State's offense is a lot closer to the pro style.
Touchdown Syndrome
Footballguy
cstu
Footballguy
He has designed runs but he does not panic under minimal pass rush and take off running. When there's pressure he rolls out of the pocket and looks for a receiver first before running, similar to Rodgers and Wilson.
Given the weapons he'll have in TB I'm not worried about him at all if the Bucs can put together a decent OL.
I have to disagree with Panther's statement that he didn't go through his reads. IMO he's one of the best college prospects at going through progressions. When he takes off, it does generally seems to be his pocket presence telling him it's time to go. His offensive line has had some pretty significant injuries, but to the rest of it I think you guys are spot on.
I've watched 90% of his games this year, and I don't think he's a sure fire stud #1 QB. I do think he's ahead of last years class, and it's a pretty easy thing to say "well, he's the best prospect since Luck/RGIII" because short of Wilson who fell for lack of height, who else could you point to during 2012/2013?
In all I think you're pretty spot on EBF. He's a great college player who has a chance to become a franchise QB, but the spread offense really showcases skills that might not transition to the NFL. He's a no-nonsense, humble player who will work hard; basically the opposite of Johnny Manziel in that respect. I'd take him before guys like Tannehill and Foles if they were coming out during the same year, but wouldn't be shocked to learn that it was the wrong decision.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
For better or worse, when I see Mariota play I'm reminded instantly of Sam Bradford.
Right down to the offense both play/played in.
Right down to the offense both play/played in.
cstu
Footballguy
cstu
Footballguy
jurb26
Footballguy
That's what happens when you don't throw to guys who are open by 3 yds and have to make NFL reads/throws.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I'm talking as a passer. You're certainly correct that he's more athletic than Bradford.
I don't see this as a debate. Tampa can't go into the '15-'16 season with what they have now. Free agency doesn't seem to offer much in upgrade. I don't know how you can look at the Manziel-in-Cleveland situation and think about taking a chance on a knuckleheaded QB.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Bradford with wheels sounds like a pretty nice player.
cstu
Footballguy
I'm not disagreeing with you. Bradford is not a bad QB but he's limited by not being mobile. Russell Wilson wouldn't be what he is without the ability to run and throw on the run.I'm talking as a passer. You're certainly correct that he's more athletic than Bradford.
I don't see this as a debate. Tampa can't go into the '15-'16 season with what they have now. Free agency doesn't seem to offer much in upgrade. I don't know how you can look at the Manziel-in-Cleveland situation and think about taking a chance on a knuckleheaded QB.
I wasn't overly impressed by Rodgers in college and don't think he was any better of a passer than Mariota. Unfortunately Mariota won't be able to sit for three years.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Just to be straight...I'm a Mariota booster. 
Grahamburn
Footballguy
I know the above statement will be regurgitated about a million times before May, but...
Why do we assume Mariota can't make NFL reads/throws once he's in the NFL?
It seems like he's been praised endlessly for his football IQ and dedication, intelligence, etc. One thing in common with every successful NFL QB is their dedication on and off the field. It's pretty clear Mariota has those intangibles. When you add that to his arm, legs, athleticism, ability to throw on the run, and the fact that's he already considered "good" within the pocket there's a better than 50/50 chance he's going to be successful.
Winston has already shown regression from one year to the next. Mariota has improved in every season.
cstu
Footballguy
You're in good company:Just to be straight...I'm a Mariota booster.
"A mobile quarterback is the most difficult element to defend in football."Pete Carroll
EBF
Footballguy
Rodgers was insane at Cal. He had games where he was unstoppable throwing the ball.
I have a pretty decent track record with Pac-12 QBs. Liked Rodgers, Luck, Sanchez, and Foles. Was lukewarm on Osweiler and Palmer. Did not like Locker, Derek Anderson, and Boller. I would say Mariota is between the first group and the second group.
As I've said many times before, I don't think Oregon's offense requires him to do a lot of the things that he'll need to do in the NFL. Easy throws to wide open receivers against light pressure. I also think that mobile quarterbacks are prone to being overrated. People are hypnotized by running QBs, but success at the position has always been more about passing ability and instincts than a player's 40 time. Beyond that, what concerns me about Mariota is that the few times I've seen him pressured and hit frequently, he seemed to shrink away from the moment. I think you learn most about a QB prospect when he's working in adverse conditions because that's the everyday reality in the NFL. It is constant pressure with blitzes in your face, confusing coverages, and the pocket collapsing constantly. A player has to be able to thrive in that reality. When Stanford lit up Nick Foles a few years back, he still hung in the pocket, stayed tough, and tried to make his throws. When they got to Mariota in 2012 and 2013, he got the "deer in headlights" look and was generally ineffective.
I'm not going to guarantee failure for this guy, but at the same time he's nowhere near the slam dunk that Luck was.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
jurb26
Footballguy
EBF has it right. Mariott doesn't win from the pocket. That doesn't mean he can't in the future. Those tendencies are hard to break though, se V. Young and J. Manziel. You want to know why Winston is better, start there because he does.
Also, Winston has proven the ability to read and throw into tight windows. Again, it doesn't mean Mariota can't but there is a difference in seeing it.
Also, Winston has proven the ability to read and throw into tight windows. Again, it doesn't mean Mariota can't but there is a difference in seeing it.
What you say is true, but I think it's also worth questioning whether it's only when those kinds of talents come along that it's legitimately worth spending a #1 overall on a player. Especially when there are almost always legitimately elite prospects at other positions available.
Has any team really ever "settled" on a QB that wasn't a can't miss prospect, but taken him #1 or 2 overall anyway because it was a need (passing over higher-rated players in the bargain), and then had him go on to lead them to glory as an elite QB?
I'm not really up for doing the legwork on that question, but I can think of at least a dozen or so times teams spent the #1 on a QB that not everyone was all that high on, and can't remember any of those panning out all that HOF-ishly. I'm not sure there have even been any more than three or four truly "everybody is on board with this guy" type QB picks since I started paying attention to drafts thirty or so years ago. But those guys each proved to be worth it. (Well, Luck is in the process, but the jury is still a tiny bit out, I guess.) I think most of the others -- even the ones who were somewhat successful -- would do it differently if they had it to do over again.
I don't see either of these guys being an Elway/Manning/Luck type slam dunk, so I think the comparisons are apt if the question is whether either guy is worth spending that kind of pick on.
I think in general, your team is almost always going to come way out ahead if they just go ahead and take BPA rather than reaching for what they hope might become a franchise QB.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Vince Young? VY's passing numbers aren't even in the same stratosphere as Mariota's.
To me, Mariota has the higher ceiling and a much higher floor.
EBF
Footballguy
I've always been a believer that great QBs are born, not made. I believe that guys like Luck, Rodgers, and Peyton have a special something that can't be taught. This doesn't mean that work ethic is irrelevant. Guys like Wilson, Peyton, and Brees are known for working extremely hard. I'm sure this has played a role in their success, but from my perspective hard work is necessary but not sufficient for a player to become an elite QB.
What people forget is that the league is full guys with A+ physical tools who have high character and work hard. Josh McCown, Kyle Boller, Charlie Whitehurst, Jake Locker, EJ Manuel, Josh Freeman, Jay Cutler, David Carr, and JP Losman had "all of the tools" needed to become great QBs. I don't know if all of those guys worked hard, but I'd venture to guess that most of them did. The problem is that, at a certain point, the skills required to be successful aren't learnable. They're innate, and a player either has them or he doesn't.
Look at a guy like Luck. Five star QB in high school. Arrived at Stanford and generated a huge buzz in practices as a true freshman. Stepped in the next season as a first-year starter and immediately displayed an innate sense for how to move an offense and improvise under pressure. He got a lot better from his RS-freshman to his sophomore year, but in general there wasn't really much of a learning curve. He was good right away. A natural. Much like Rodgers, who thrived immediately at Cal. This was in stark contrast to guys like Locker, Boller, and even Palmer, who all took years to really "learn" how to play QB in college, if they ever did at all.
I think recognition, accuracy, poise, and instincts are "mental talent" in the same way that speed and strength are physical talents. A player is born with a certain achievable range. He can get better with practice or worse with bad work habits, but at the end of the day his ceiling is pre-determined. And just like you can never "teach" Shonn Greene to run as fast as Chris Johnson, you can't "teach" Josh McCown to do things that elite QBs like Luck, Rodgers, and Roethlisberger have done automatically since day one. This is why when you hear about a "project" QB or a physical specimen that the team is going to "develop" into a great passer, you can pretty much assume that the player will bust. You are who you are, and 2-3 seasons in college will usually tell that story.
As for Mariota, I just think he's a tough evaluation because he has been asked to do so little in terms of the NFL QB skills. It almost is like trying to project an option QB to an NFL RB. You might be able to see that some of the skills are there, but the role he played in college doesn't fit the role he'll be asked to play in the NFL, so you have to take a guess based on limited information. The few times I've seen him tested in the pocket against tight coverage and a brutal pass rush, I haven't been convinced. I won't say he's the next Vince Young because he's not that big of a gimmick and he's a lot smarter, but RGIII and Kaepernick might be good comparisons. Their struggles in the NFL suggest that a player of this sort should probably be viewed as more of a mid-late 1st than a top 3 lock.
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
All true except for the idea that's often left out - ticket sales.
Going into 2015 with Mike Glennon/Josh McCown is something that Tampa simply cannot do from a fan interest perspective.
They're faced with a Sophie's Choice of sorts, but that's the price they pay.
Edit: And I really agree with what EBF posted. More than any position in sports, you have to be born with exceptional talent to be a great NFL QB. From that point the work you put in develops your skills at the position. I don't think either of these guys can be on the Manning/Luck level, but they can be a sufficient QB for any of the top teams in this draft to select with their pick.
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Grahamburn
Footballguy
Another important aspect of this is we're getting to a point in the NFL where several of the truly elite QB's are getting close to retiring. Manning, Brees, and Brady only have a handful of years left.
Then there's Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, and everyone else basically. If you have an opportunity to get a player at the top of the draft who might be the next elite QB you have to take it.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
This is going to be a fun five months for Bucs' fans.
jurb26
Footballguy
So what? You guys keep making this about stats and it should be about skill set, on the field.
EBF
Footballguy
Last thing I'll throw out there for now is that, when you consider his amazing stats, remember that this is a very friendly offense. Here are the last three starting QBs before Mariota:
http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/dennis-dixon-1.html
http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/jeremiah-masoli-1.html
http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/darron-thomas-1.html
None of these guys were as consistently dominant as Mariota on the stat sheet, but that makes sense because Masoli and Thomas were nowhere even close to being draftable QB prospects. Dixon was day three pick who bounced around the NFL for a few years on the heels of a huge senior season at Oregon.
The point here is that you can put any halfway athletic QB in this offense and he's going to thrive. With that being the case, imagine what might happen if you put an actually decent draft prospect in that same offense. You'd expect him to blow up. It's like Crabtree at Texas Tech, RGIII at Baylor, or Melvin Gordon at Wisconsin. When you put a 1st-2nd round NFL talent in a friendly scheme, it's the recipe for a statistical explosion.
As time passes, it's looking like Crabtree and RGIII weren't quite as good as their college careers would have led you to believe. I think part of what happened in both cases is that some of the quality of the situation rubbed off on the players and made them look better than they actually were. With that in mind, is Mariota actually a better prospect than Kaepernick or is his hype just an indication of the hype Kaepernick would've had if he'd played at a visible top 5 program surrounded by NFL talent? It is question worth asking yourself.
http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/dennis-dixon-1.html
http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/jeremiah-masoli-1.html
http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/darron-thomas-1.html
None of these guys were as consistently dominant as Mariota on the stat sheet, but that makes sense because Masoli and Thomas were nowhere even close to being draftable QB prospects. Dixon was day three pick who bounced around the NFL for a few years on the heels of a huge senior season at Oregon.
The point here is that you can put any halfway athletic QB in this offense and he's going to thrive. With that being the case, imagine what might happen if you put an actually decent draft prospect in that same offense. You'd expect him to blow up. It's like Crabtree at Texas Tech, RGIII at Baylor, or Melvin Gordon at Wisconsin. When you put a 1st-2nd round NFL talent in a friendly scheme, it's the recipe for a statistical explosion.
As time passes, it's looking like Crabtree and RGIII weren't quite as good as their college careers would have led you to believe. I think part of what happened in both cases is that some of the quality of the situation rubbed off on the players and made them look better than they actually were. With that in mind, is Mariota actually a better prospect than Kaepernick or is his hype just an indication of the hype Kaepernick would've had if he'd played at a visible top 5 program surrounded by NFL talent? It is question worth asking yourself.
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Mariota is the exact opposite of JFF in every way when it comes to being a knucklehead. You really don't know what you're talking about.I'm talking as a passer. You're certainly correct that he's more athletic than Bradford.
I don't see this as a debate. Tampa can't go into the '15-'16 season with what they have now. Free agency doesn't seem to offer much in upgrade. I don't know how you can look at the Manziel-in-Cleveland situation and think about taking a chance on a knuckleheaded QB.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I (clearly?) meant that Mariota is the obvious choice because there's no way Tampa can take Winston (the knucklehead in this case).Mariota is the exact opposite of JFF in every way when it comes to being a knucklehead. You really don't know what you're talking about.I'm talking as a passer. You're certainly correct that he's more athletic than Bradford.
I don't see this as a debate. Tampa can't go into the '15-'16 season with what they have now. Free agency doesn't seem to offer much in upgrade. I don't know how you can look at the Manziel-in-Cleveland situation and think about taking a chance on a knuckleheaded QB.
See: context
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cstu
Footballguy
Griffin is a close comparison to Mariota at this stage and was red hot as a rookie before hurting his knee.
What I think will help him immediately in TB is huge targets like Evans, VJax and ASJ. He won't immediately need to make those tight spot throws that are a relative weakness right now and instead focus on putting the ball where only those guys can get the ball and let them make plays.
With those receiving options, Martin/Sims in the backfield and Mariota's running ability how do you defend that?
I didn't say thing one about stats. I talked about skills on (and off) the field. I.e., how they rate out as consensus prospects.
Forgetting MM for a moment, the biggest red flag for me where Winston is concerned is the regression. Not only has he not had nearly the season he did last yr, but he routinely seems to be digging himself holes against mediocre competition, only to play hero later by turning it on just in time to salvage the W.
This suggests a couple things to me. One: he is not fastidious about coming into every game prepared. Two: he was content to rest on his laurels knowing he already had a Heisman, a title, and the inside track to a high draft pick. Both these things SCREAM that this is not a guy super dedicated to off-field work, or committed to perfecting his craft. And those things are absolutely mandatory if you hope to justify spending a high first round draft pick on a guy. And tigers so rarely change their stripes that I feel a frachise would have to be insane to hand this kid a multi-million dollar windfall and THEN expect him to become a dedicated professional.
I agree he's got a good skill set and I don't care about what trouble he's been in. If I'm a GM, I only care whether he can physically do the job, and whether I'm convinced he's got the psychological makeup to turn himself into a football monomaniac until he establishes himself as one of the QB elite. Not only do I not see evidence of that: I see the exact opposite.
The one thing I'll add to your analysis here, which again, I generally agree with, but think you missed here is this:
You spent the majority of your time here talking about "born with it." Mariotta came into Oregon, redshirted, then took over that starting QB position when Darron Thomas, a guy who had lead the Ducks to a Rose Bowl win the season before and was widely considered the best Ducks QB since Fouts, mysteriously departed for the NFL. Thomas wasn't drafted by a NFL team. It was widely speculated that he already knew Mariotta was better from practice and would lose his job the following year, thus is stock was as high as it would ever be.
Mariotta came in as a red shirt freshman, won the job over more established players, and went on to post very impressive TD:INT and accuracy totals ever since. In short, if you're going to spend time talking about born with it - you might want to add Mariotta up a notch on your ladder.
Sorry I missed your context, you had not mentioned Winston, and we were in a thread talking about Mariotta. No one had mentioned Winston at all in this conversation as you can see from the quotes, only Bradford and Mariotta, and it appears you assumed if one wasn't saying Mariotta wasn't similar to Bradford as a statue, they must be assuming Winston would be the only other option.I (clearly?) meant that Mariota is the obvious choice because there's no way Tampa can take Winston (the knucklehead in this case).Mariota is the exact opposite of JFF in every way when it comes to being a knucklehead. You really don't know what you're talking about.I'm talking as a passer. You're certainly correct that he's more athletic than Bradford.
I don't see this as a debate. Tampa can't go into the '15-'16 season with what they have now. Free agency doesn't seem to offer much in upgrade. I don't know how you can look at the Manziel-in-Cleveland situation and think about taking a chance on a knuckleheaded QB.
See: context
See: this conversation again... and my awesome run on sentence.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Great take and likely the reason the Bucs will take Mariota.
I didn't say thing one about stats. I talked about skills on (and off) the field. I.e., how they rate out as consensus prospects.
Forgetting MM for a moment, the biggest red flag for me where Winston is concerned is the regression. Not only has he not had nearly the season he did last yr, but he routinely seems to be digging himself holes against mediocre competition, only to play hero later by turning it on just in time to salvage the W.
This suggests a couple things to me. One: he is not fastidious about coming into every game prepared. Two: he was content to rest on his laurels knowing he already had a Heisman, a title, and the inside track to a high draft pick. Both these things SCREAM that this is not a guy super dedicated to off-field work, or committed to perfecting his craft. And those things are absolutely mandatory if you hope to justify spending a high first round draft pick on a guy. And tigers so rarely change their stripes that I feel a frachise would have to be insane to hand this kid a multi-million dollar windfall and THEN expect him to become a dedicated professional.
I agree he's got a good skill set and I don't care about what trouble he's been in. If I'm a GM, I only care whether he can physically do the job, and whether I'm convinced he's got the psychological makeup to turn himself into a football monomaniac until he establishes himself as one of the QB elite. Not only do I not see evidence of that: I see the exact opposite.
massraider
Footballguy
Keep him in the pocket, ignore the crappy RBs, and focus on the WR that's not old and slowing down?
cstu
Footballguy
Manziel has also committed to Oregon but switched to A&M three months after Mariota committed, probably after seeing his high school tape.
And despite already signing Manziel, Kelly offered Mariota who wasn't even a starter his junior year:
Grahamburn
Footballguy
jurb26
Footballguy
The regression is a bit of an issue but not as much to me as you. His team isn't as good this year and it's making an impact. I do agree that Winston seemingly has a laziness around him. At least perceivabley. I think he's guilty of thinking he, and his team for that matter, are better than they are at times. You see it in some of his throws. This does get back to the major concern I've had about him all along. How serious is he going to take being an NFL QB and potential franchise face? Again I go back to his insistent claims of wanting to be a 2 sport athlete in the pros. This makes me absolutely cringe more than anything else about him. More than the crab legs and other offseason foolishness. I just don't think today's NFL can support this type of compartmentalized attention from a QB. Some of these lapses lead more credence to the amount of dedication he's putting in.
None the less, on the field he's just better than Mariota.
