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QB Marcus Mariota, WAS (1 Viewer)

jurb26 said:
Freelove said:
Forgetting MM for a moment, the biggest red flag for me where Winston is concerned is the regression. Not only has he not had nearly the season he did last yr, but he routinely seems to be digging himself holes against mediocre competition, only to play hero later by turning it on just in time to salvage the W.

This suggests a couple things to me. One: he is not fastidious about coming into every game prepared. Two: he was content to rest on his laurels knowing he already had a Heisman, a title, and the inside track to a high draft pick. Both these things SCREAM that this is not a guy super dedicated to off-field work, or committed to perfecting his craft. And those things are absolutely mandatory if you hope to justify spending a high first round draft pick on a guy. And tigers so rarely change their stripes that I feel a frachise would have to be insane to hand this kid a multi-million dollar windfall and THEN expect him to become a dedicated professional.

I agree he's got a good skill set and I don't care about what trouble he's been in. If I'm a GM, I only care whether he can physically do the job, and whether I'm convinced he's got the psychological makeup to turn himself into a football monomaniac until he establishes himself as one of the QB elite. Not only do I not see evidence of that: I see the exact opposite.
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The regression is a bit of an issue but not as much to me as you. His team isn't as good this year and it's making an impact. I do agree that Winston seemingly has a laziness around him. At least perceivabley. I think he's guilty of thinking he, and his team for that matter, are better than they are at times. You see it in some of his throws.This does get back to the major concern I've had about him all along. How serious is he going to take being an NFL QB and potential franchise face? Again I go back to his insistent claims of wanting to be a 2 sport athlete in the pros. This makes me absolutely cringe more than anything else about him. More than the crab legs and other offseason foolishness. I just don't think today's NFL can support this type of compartmentalized attention from a QB. Some of these lapses lead more credence to the amount of dedication he's putting in.

None the less, on the field he's just better than Mariota.
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I would agree to a sentiment such as, "At his best, he does more things that are important to a successful pro style game than Mariota can do at his best." That's about as far as I'd be willing to push it, though. :shrug:

Nonetheless, I think they're pretty close in terms of overall pro potential, especially since I'm more bullish than most on how much a great game manager QB can do for a team. And if Mariota doesn't come in a light the world on fire, I think he has both the skill set and the mental makeup to make that kind of transition and still have a valuable role to play as an NFL starter on a team that just needs a caretaker for a running/defense plan of attack. I don't see that in Winston.

Winston will certainly get his chance to prove the naysayers wrong. No matter the red flags, there are always teams that won't bother downgrading him for them, and will only see the physical upside.

 
Grahamburn said:
This is going to be a fun five months for Bucs' fans.
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I think the fact that it is a 2 top QB draft makes it a more interesting storyline. Add to the fact both of the guys are Heisman winners, will play each other in the 1st ever CFB playoff, and will be compared to each other for the rest of their lives. It's like chapter 1 of what will hopefully be 2 long & successful NFL careers. :popcorn:

 
Quez said:
Grahamburn said:
This is going to be a fun five months for Bucs' fans.
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I think the fact that it is a 2 top QB draft makes it a more interesting storyline. Add to the fact both of the guys are Heisman winners, will play each other in the 1st ever CFB playoff, and will be compared to each other for the rest of their lives. It's like chapter 1 of what will hopefully be 2 long & successful NFL careers. :popcorn:
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8 times in the past 20 years have two QB's been taken in the top 5 of the same draft. Only one time (Couch) has the team with the first pick taken the less successful QB (ignoring SB wins, Eli is another).

Luck/Griffin

Stafford/Sanchez

Eli/Rivers

Carr/Harrington

Couch/McNabb/Smith

Peyton/Leaf

McNair/Collins

Bledsoe/Mirer

 
jurb26 said:
Freelove said:
Forgetting MM for a moment, the biggest red flag for me where Winston is concerned is the regression. Not only has he not had nearly the season he did last yr, but he routinely seems to be digging himself holes against mediocre competition, only to play hero later by turning it on just in time to salvage the W.

This suggests a couple things to me. One: he is not fastidious about coming into every game prepared. Two: he was content to rest on his laurels knowing he already had a Heisman, a title, and the inside track to a high draft pick. Both these things SCREAM that this is not a guy super dedicated to off-field work, or committed to perfecting his craft. And those things are absolutely mandatory if you hope to justify spending a high first round draft pick on a guy. And tigers so rarely change their stripes that I feel a frachise would have to be insane to hand this kid a multi-million dollar windfall and THEN expect him to become a dedicated professional.

I agree he's got a good skill set and I don't care about what trouble he's been in. If I'm a GM, I only care whether he can physically do the job, and whether I'm convinced he's got the psychological makeup to turn himself into a football monomaniac until he establishes himself as one of the QB elite. Not only do I not see evidence of that: I see the exact opposite.
Click to expand...
The regression is a bit of an issue but not as much to me as you. His team isn't as good this year and it's making an impact. I do agree that Winston seemingly has a laziness around him. At least perceivabley. I think he's guilty of thinking he, and his team for that matter, are better than they are at times. You see it in some of his throws.This does get back to the major concern I've had about him all along. How serious is he going to take being an NFL QB and potential franchise face? Again I go back to his insistent claims of wanting to be a 2 sport athlete in the pros. This makes me absolutely cringe more than anything else about him. More than the crab legs and other offseason foolishness. I just don't think today's NFL can support this type of compartmentalized attention from a QB. Some of these lapses lead more credence to the amount of dedication he's putting in.

None the less, on the field he's just better than Mariota.
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Mariota lost his top 4 receivers from 2013 and the Oregon offensive line has been in shambles. It goes both ways.

 
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Kid is on Dan Patrick replay on NBCSN now. It's nearly painful to watch how shy he is. Like really akward.

 
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We weren't talking about Mariota. We were talking about Winston and his stat/int regression.

Winston's regression has been a result of a few things. His oline has performed considerably worse this year. He is overconfident in his ability to make throws at times.... He's got a gunslinger attitude sometimes. He struggles to read underneath coverage, primarily LBs. His offense is very unfriendly for QBs and places a ton of pressure on him that Mariota has never seen even a fraction of. I also speculate that he is a bit lazy in the film room or off the field but that's nearly impossible to say for sure u less you coach for FSU.

Despite all of this he displays a clear ability to play within the pocket, even when it's breaking down. He moves well to find hidden spots in the pocket to still make throws. His ability here is what truly sets him apart from Mariota even when it leads to mistakes. Mistakes like throwing off balance because he thinks he has a Stafford arm when he doesn't. That is a much easier transition to make in the NFL, though. Teaching him to simply throw on balance or not at all. Those instincts in the pocket are largely given to you or not. He also reads downfield coverage and anticipates opening windows extremely well. We don't see this from Mariota. He has to see an open guy before he throws. I could go on but don't have the time.

 
-CE- said:
Freelove said:
seahawk 17 said:
Grahamburn said:
Tampa can't create a pocket anyway. Might as well draft the guy who can escape one and throws well on the run.
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Mariota is use to playing behind an O-Line in shambles...
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...against those legendarily stout Pac 10/12 defenses. :oldunsure:
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...those ACC defenses on the other hand... :rolleyes:
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Before rolling your eyes you should consider the ACC had the #1 ranked and 8 of the top 28 total defenses in FBS and FSU played 7 of them plus an 8th rated FLA D while the PAC 12 has only 2 teams ranked in the top 78. He has a slight point.

Obviously also has something to do with the caliber of offenses their facing too but it's pretty clear that the ACC is a much better defensive conference this year.

 
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-CE- said:
Freelove said:
seahawk 17 said:
Grahamburn said:
Tampa can't create a pocket anyway. Might as well draft the guy who can escape one and throws well on the run.
Click to expand...
Mariota is use to playing behind an O-Line in shambles...
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...against those legendarily stout Pac 10/12 defenses. :oldunsure:
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...those ACC defenses on the other hand... :rolleyes:
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How is that relevant to the question of somebody being accustomed to playing scrambleball behind a makeshift OL? The point there is that the skill doesn't really translate.

 
With the rookie salary cap if you don't have a franchise QB you have to gamble on one if they have potential to be a franchise QB. Tampa has to go with a QB if they feel the potential is there. They really have no other choice, the odds of winning a Super Bowl nowadays without a top notch QB is close to zero.

 
ILUVBEER99 said:
With the rookie salary cap if you don't have a franchise QB you have to gamble on one if they have potential to be a franchise QB. Tampa has to go with a QB if they feel the potential is there. They really have no other choice, the odds of winning a Super Bowl nowadays without a top notch QB is close to zero.
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If by top notch you mean above average I agree. If you literally mean top notch then you are wrong. Big Ben, Eli, Flacco amd Wilson won 6 of the last 10 SBs. All above average, none top notch.
 
mr roboto said:
ILUVBEER99 said:
With the rookie salary cap if you don't have a franchise QB you have to gamble on one if they have potential to be a franchise QB. Tampa has to go with a QB if they feel the potential is there. They really have no other choice, the odds of winning a Super Bowl nowadays without a top notch QB is close to zero.
Click to expand...
If by top notch you mean above average I agree. If you literally mean top notch then you are wrong. Big Ben, Eli, Flacco amd Wilson won 6 of the last 10 SBs. All above average, none top notch.
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Bottom line is that no QB on their roster is even above average.

 
mr roboto said:
ILUVBEER99 said:
With the rookie salary cap if you don't have a franchise QB you have to gamble on one if they have potential to be a franchise QB. Tampa has to go with a QB if they feel the potential is there. They really have no other choice, the odds of winning a Super Bowl nowadays without a top notch QB is close to zero.
Click to expand...
If by top notch you mean above average I agree. If you literally mean top notch then you are wrong. Big Ben, Eli, Flacco amd Wilson won 6 of the last 10 SBs. All above average, none top notch.
Click to expand...
technically those guys are all franchise QB's. They have no risk of losing their jobs and are all solid.

Tampa has Glennon and McCown, they are as weak as it comes at QB, they would kill for a Big Ben type QB.

 
cstu said:
mr roboto said:
ILUVBEER99 said:
With the rookie salary cap if you don't have a franchise QB you have to gamble on one if they have potential to be a franchise QB. Tampa has to go with a QB if they feel the potential is there. They really have no other choice, the odds of winning a Super Bowl nowadays without a top notch QB is close to zero.
Click to expand...
If by top notch you mean above average I agree. If you literally mean top notch then you are wrong. Big Ben, Eli, Flacco amd Wilson won 6 of the last 10 SBs. All above average, none top notch.
Click to expand...
Bottom line is that no QB on their roster is even above average.
Click to expand...
Agreed but the 'must have an elite QB to win' meme causes a lot of resentment and impatience for fans regarding developing QBs. And it's simply not true.
 
Capella said:
Another read that this time favors Winston:

http://nflphilosophy.com/marcus-mariota-vs-jameis-winston/
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That was a brutal read.

Take each aspect of Mariota's game, and everywhere possible, convert good collegiate play into "an inability." (E.g., passing over "open receivers" by NFL standards to find "even more open receivers." He has insane TD:INT numbers, meaning that "passing over" those guys is the correct choice. It says nothing about whether he's able to do it. THAT'S a question mark, but hardly a condemnation of his onfield performance.)

Then take each weakness of Winston's game, and everywhere possible, convert it into a strength, the same way you'd coach a high-school senior to conduct a job interview. Jameis sucks in first halfs? That's just his vastly superior analyitic brain converting the information he sees in the first half into usable material for the second half! When he hits the NFL and has time to study? Watch out!

Lastly, ignore everything that doesn't fit the narrative. Anything happens off field, we simply can't know and won't consider!!! But...Winston has proven his predilection for AVOIDING study and prep, but once he gets to the NFL, he'll be awesome at that same skill, based on how he starts games slowly? Well, we won't consider the negative implications of anything off field...at least not for "our guy."

I still think these guys will grade out close, but that article was a guy who came into the writing session with a conclusion he wanted to write about, and ham-fistedly insisted on torturing the evidence until it fit the narrative.

:X

 
But...Winston has proven his predilection for AVOIDING study and prep, but once he gets to the NFL, he'll be awesome at that same skill
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:lmao: one of his best skills is how much he studies and breaks down film.

 
Freelove said:
Capella said:
Another read that this time favors Winston:

http://nflphilosophy.com/marcus-mariota-vs-jameis-winston/
Click to expand...
That was a brutal read.Take each aspect of Mariota's game, and everywhere possible, convert good collegiate play into "an inability." (E.g., passing over "open receivers" by NFL standards to find "even more open receivers." He has insane TD:INT numbers, meaning that "passing over" those guys is the correct choice. It says nothing about whether he's able to do it. THAT'S a question mark, but hardly a condemnation of his onfield performance.)

Then take each weakness of Winston's game, and everywhere possible, convert it into a strength, the same way you'd coach a high-school senior to conduct a job interview. Jameis sucks in first halfs? That's just his vastly superior analyitic brain converting the information he sees in the first half into usable material for the second half! When he hits the NFL and has time to study? Watch out!

Lastly, ignore everything that doesn't fit the narrative. Anything happens off field, we simply can't know and won't consider!!! But...Winston has proven his predilection for AVOIDING study and prep, but once he gets to the NFL, he'll be awesome at that same skill, based on how he starts games slowly? Well, we won't consider the negative implications of anything off field...at least not for "our guy."

I still think these guys will grade out close, but that article was a guy who came into the writing session with a conclusion he wanted to write about, and ham-fistedly insisted on torturing the evidence until it fit the narrative.

:X
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It was a great read. Well thought out. Focused on skills rather than results. I would take Mariota over Winston any day as a franchise QB but this article wasn't biased.

 
mr roboto said:
Freelove said:
Capella said:
Another read that this time favors Winston:http://nflphilosophy.com/marcus-mariota-vs-jameis-winston/
Click to expand...
That was a brutal read.Take each aspect of Mariota's game, and everywhere possible, convert good collegiate play into "an inability." (E.g., passing over "open receivers" by NFL standards to find "even more open receivers." He has insane TD:INT numbers, meaning that "passing over" those guys is the correct choice. It says nothing about whether he's able to do it. THAT'S a question mark, but hardly a condemnation of his onfield performance.)

Then take each weakness of Winston's game, and everywhere possible, convert it into a strength, the same way you'd coach a high-school senior to conduct a job interview. Jameis sucks in first halfs? That's just his vastly superior analyitic brain converting the information he sees in the first half into usable material for the second half! When he hits the NFL and has time to study? Watch out!

Lastly, ignore everything that doesn't fit the narrative. Anything happens off field, we simply can't know and won't consider!!! But...Winston has proven his predilection for AVOIDING study and prep, but once he gets to the NFL, he'll be awesome at that same skill, based on how he starts games slowly? Well, we won't consider the negative implications of anything off field...at least not for "our guy."

I still think these guys will grade out close, but that article was a guy who came into the writing session with a conclusion he wanted to write about, and ham-fistedly insisted on torturing the evidence until it fit the narrative.

:X
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It was a great read. Well thought out. Focused on skills rather than results. I would take Mariota over Winston any day as a franchise QB but this article wasn't biased.
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That was my take as well. I have no idea why Freelove takes accept ion to the article. Maybe he has some built in bias?
 
I'm not sure they have 1 NFL throw in their playbook. Talented athlete and great college qb but I don't see the hype as a prospect.

 
Also he spends about 0% of his time in the pocket. Pressure is not even coming and he rolls out for no reason.

Looks a lot like RG3 and Kapernick but without the deep accuracy.

 
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ConnSKINS26 said:
jurb26 said:
ConnSKINS26 said:
So glad people are seeing this now.
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Saw it a long time ago.
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Well, yeah. But there is/was a huge contingent who would get their hackles up when someone would post about how he makes zero NFL throws, doesn't stand in the pocket, etc.
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I am definitively not part of this contingent. I just havent watched a lot of CFB this year. Seems pretty evident from just watching one game. I guess with a RG3/Kaepernick style offense he might be good? Maybe Chip Kelly trades for him? idk.

 
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