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QB Marcus Mariota, WAS (1 Viewer)

Bracie Smathers said:
DocHolliday said:
Dilfer is actully mostly correct. Mariota is not truly NFL ready. He will have to learn an entirely new way of running an offense. He should sit for a year. I doubt he slips as far as Dilfer suggests though. This is a QB league. Many teams know that they do not have the QB that they need and must take a chance on someone with the possibility of talent.
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I find myself agreeing with Dilfer and others who have raised questions about Mariota.

The Oregon offense schemes-open WRs so the QB has easy shorter quicker throws and he doesn't face as many tight-quarter throws from the pocket that a guy like Jameis Winston made from a Pro Set traditional NFL type offense.
Click to expand...
What if the team Mariota goes to doesn't run a "Pro Set traditional NFL type offense"? NFL teams increasingly don't.

 
CalBear said:
Bracie Smathers said:
DocHolliday said:
Dilfer is actully mostly correct. Mariota is not truly NFL ready. He will have to learn an entirely new way of running an offense. He should sit for a year. I doubt he slips as far as Dilfer suggests though. This is a QB league. Many teams know that they do not have the QB that they need and must take a chance on someone with the possibility of talent.
Click to expand...
I find myself agreeing with Dilfer and others who have raised questions about Mariota.

The Oregon offense schemes-open WRs so the QB has easy shorter quicker throws and he doesn't face as many tight-quarter throws from the pocket that a guy like Jameis Winston made from a Pro Set traditional NFL type offense.
Click to expand...
What if the team Mariota goes to doesn't run a "Pro Set traditional NFL type offense"? NFL teams increasingly don't.
Click to expand...
The other day Greg Cosell said that no matter what offense that Mariota eventually goes to he will find himself in 3rd and long situations just like Mark Sanchez found himself in with Chip Kelly's offense and that the questions whether or not he can fit the ball into tight windows will be answered. Cosell brought up other issues about Mariota's game that Dilfer didn't touch on concerning his footwork.

But you are right many teams are operating spread-WC-type offenses based on short throws and empty backfields and bunched WR sets, etc. But even in those offenses the quarterback will eventually find himself in a 3rd and long where he's going to have to nail those 5 or 7 step drops and he's going to have to hit those tight window throws and those are the concerns being raised about Mariota's game and why he'll likely have to develop before those questions can be answered.

 
Bracie Smathers said:
CalBear said:
Bracie Smathers said:
DocHolliday said:
Dilfer is actully mostly correct. Mariota is not truly NFL ready. He will have to learn an entirely new way of running an offense. He should sit for a year. I doubt he slips as far as Dilfer suggests though. This is a QB league. Many teams know that they do not have the QB that they need and must take a chance on someone with the possibility of talent.
Click to expand...
I find myself agreeing with Dilfer and others who have raised questions about Mariota.

The Oregon offense schemes-open WRs so the QB has easy shorter quicker throws and he doesn't face as many tight-quarter throws from the pocket that a guy like Jameis Winston made from a Pro Set traditional NFL type offense.
Click to expand...
What if the team Mariota goes to doesn't run a "Pro Set traditional NFL type offense"? NFL teams increasingly don't.
Click to expand...
The other day Greg Cosell said that no matter what offense that Mariota eventually goes to he will find himself in 3rd and long situations just like Mark Sanchez found himself in with Chip Kelly's offense and that the questions whether or not he can fit the ball into tight windows will be answered. Cosell brought up other issues about Mariota's game that Dilfer didn't touch on concerning his footwork.

But you are right many teams are operating spread-WC-type offenses based on short throws and empty backfields and bunched WR sets, etc. But even in those offenses the quarterback will eventually find himself in a 3rd and long where he's going to have to nail those 5 or 7 step drops and he's going to have to hit those tight window throws and those are the concerns being raised about Mariota's game and why he'll likely have to develop before those questions can be answered.
Click to expand...
I don't know of a data source for NCAA stats where you can break things down by down and distance, but I would be shocked if Mariota didn't significantly outperform Winston on third-and-long situations. And if he's throwing out of the shotgun all the time (as a number of NFL QBs do now) he won't have to change his drop. Sure, defenders will be better, but that's true for every QB entering the draft.

 
In the day and age of coaches being fired in as short of time as 1 season, who would want to draft a QB that isn't NFL ready? The Glaziers have given the last 2 coaches only 2 years, and both had a better start than Lovie. Can he afford to spend the #1 overall draft pick on a guy that may not contribute at all to the team?

 
Quez said:
In the day and age of coaches being fired in as short of time as 1 season, who would want to draft a QB that isn't NFL ready? The Glaziers have given the last 2 coaches only 2 years, and both had a better start than Lovie. Can he afford to spend the #1 overall draft pick on a guy that may not contribute at all to the team?
Click to expand...
I think he will definitely start his first season. He may not be the type of QB (Luck, Dalton, RG3, Wilson, etc.) who instantly leads his team to the playoffs as a rookie, but he should at least start.

 
Quez said:
CalBear said:
Quez said:
Kitrick Taylor said:
Andy Dufresne said:
Kitrick Taylor said:
Honest question. Winston has a huge amount of off the field red flags. Obviously QB is a position that is your team leader, face of the franchise, as well as probably the most mentally challenging position in all of sports. Contrast that with the Heisman winner Mariota. No off the field red flags that we know of. Huge production in college. I heard Mike and Mike talking about the two of them this AM. Golic said he absolutely would take Winston 1st overall if he was Tampa. So onto the question, if Tampa takes Winston despite his red flags ahead of Mariota, what does that say about MM?
Click to expand...
It says that Tampa thinks Winston is better than Mariota. :shrug:
Click to expand...
Right, but if that happens, they are basically willing to go with the guy with huge red flags all around him over Mariota. I'd think if it were even a close thing talent wise, they'd prefer the guy without a ton of red flags right?
Click to expand...
If you think Winston is the best QB in the draft you take him no matter what. The hit rate is 50% on QBs in round 1. Can anyone seriously justify "he was the best QB but was too risky so we drafted the 2nd best QB in the draft".
Click to expand...
Head issues are part of what make or break a QB. Of those 50% who fail, a lot of them fail not because their arms don't work or their feet don't work, they fail because their head doesn't work. Many of the biggest busts are that way: Ryan Leaf and Jamarcus Russell to name two.
Click to expand...
If either of these guys scream "head issues" it's Marcus Mariota. From the few times I have heard him talk he reminded me of the soft spoken Josh Freeman, and he turned out to be the biggest screw ball since Barrett Rob
Click to expand...
Wow! You're a great judge of character. I hope Bucs draft Jamis. Won't matter Bucs are terrible. They are a regular top 10 team though, in the draft that is.

 
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Billy Ball Thorton said:
Quez said:
CalBear said:
Quez said:
Kitrick Taylor said:
Andy Dufresne said:
Kitrick Taylor said:
Honest question. Winston has a huge amount of off the field red flags. Obviously QB is a position that is your team leader, face of the franchise, as well as probably the most mentally challenging position in all of sports. Contrast that with the Heisman winner Mariota. No off the field red flags that we know of. Huge production in college. I heard Mike and Mike talking about the two of them this AM. Golic said he absolutely would take Winston 1st overall if he was Tampa. So onto the question, if Tampa takes Winston despite his red flags ahead of Mariota, what does that say about MM?
Click to expand...
It says that Tampa thinks Winston is better than Mariota. :shrug:
Click to expand...
Right, but if that happens, they are basically willing to go with the guy with huge red flags all around him over Mariota. I'd think if it were even a close thing talent wise, they'd prefer the guy without a ton of red flags right?
Click to expand...
If you think Winston is the best QB in the draft you take him no matter what. The hit rate is 50% on QBs in round 1. Can anyone seriously justify "he was the best QB but was too risky so we drafted the 2nd best QB in the draft".
Click to expand...
Head issues are part of what make or break a QB. Of those 50% who fail, a lot of them fail not because their arms don't work or their feet don't work, they fail because their head doesn't work. Many of the biggest busts are that way: Ryan Leaf and Jamarcus Russell to name two.
Click to expand...
If either of these guys scream "head issues" it's Marcus Mariota. From the few times I have heard him talk he reminded me of the soft spoken Josh Freeman, and he turned out to be the biggest screw ball since Barrett Rob
Click to expand...
Wow! You're a great judge of character. I hope Bucs draft Jamis. Won't matter Bucs are terrible. They are a regular top 10 team though, in the draft that is.
Click to expand...
They won a Super Bowl 12 years ago. Not many teams on that list. :ptts: :ptts: :ptts: :ptts:

 
Actually there's only 1 team on the list of 'Teams that won the Super Bowl 12 years ago.' There's always only 1 team on any list titled 'Teams that won the Super Bowl ___ years ago.'

 
CalBear said:
Bracie Smathers said:
CalBear said:
Bracie Smathers said:
DocHolliday said:
Dilfer is actully mostly correct. Mariota is not truly NFL ready. He will have to learn an entirely new way of running an offense. He should sit for a year. I doubt he slips as far as Dilfer suggests though. This is a QB league. Many teams know that they do not have the QB that they need and must take a chance on someone with the possibility of talent.
Click to expand...
I find myself agreeing with Dilfer and others who have raised questions about Mariota.

The Oregon offense schemes-open WRs so the QB has easy shorter quicker throws and he doesn't face as many tight-quarter throws from the pocket that a guy like Jameis Winston made from a Pro Set traditional NFL type offense.
Click to expand...
What if the team Mariota goes to doesn't run a "Pro Set traditional NFL type offense"? NFL teams increasingly don't.
Click to expand...
The other day Greg Cosell said that no matter what offense that Mariota eventually goes to he will find himself in 3rd and long situations just like Mark Sanchez found himself in with Chip Kelly's offense and that the questions whether or not he can fit the ball into tight windows will be answered. Cosell brought up other issues about Mariota's game that Dilfer didn't touch on concerning his footwork.

But you are right many teams are operating spread-WC-type offenses based on short throws and empty backfields and bunched WR sets, etc. But even in those offenses the quarterback will eventually find himself in a 3rd and long where he's going to have to nail those 5 or 7 step drops and he's going to have to hit those tight window throws and those are the concerns being raised about Mariota's game and why he'll likely have to develop before those questions can be answered.
Click to expand...
I don't know of a data source for NCAA stats where you can break things down by down and distance, but I would be shocked if Mariota didn't significantly outperform Winston on third-and-long situations. And if he's throwing out of the shotgun all the time (as a number of NFL QBs do now) he won't have to change his drop. Sure, defenders will be better, but that's true for every QB entering the draft.
Click to expand...
cfbstats lets you break things down by down & distance. On 3rd & 10+, Winston got a first down on 34% (13/38) of his pass attempts vs. 32% (7/22) for Mariota; league average was 25%. But if you include sacks & runs, then that becomes 35% for Winston (14/40) vs. 25% for Mariota (8/32).

 
http://www.bucsnation.com/2015/1/8/7518471/marcus-mariota-jameis-winston-nfl-draft-2015

Mark Helfrich is currently Oregon's head coach, and has coached Marcus Mariota his entire career -- initially as the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach in Mariota's freshman year, and as his head coach since then. And Koetter has a very long history with Helfrich.

In fact, Koetter was Helfrich's superior for the first nine years of his career. For eight of those years, Helfrich was the quarterbacks coach while Koetter was the head coach at Boise State and later Arizona State. So getting some real insight on Mariota would be trivially easy for Koetter.
Click to expand...
 
cfbstats lets you break things down by down & distance. On 3rd & 10+, Winston got a first down on 34% (13/38) of his pass attempts vs. 32% (7/22) for Mariota; league average was 25%. But if you include sacks & runs, then that becomes 35% for Winston (14/40) vs. 25% for Mariota (8/32).
Click to expand...
Mariota in the 4th quarter:

- Ridiculous 233.29 rating last year, in 2013 he had 207.70.

- Never completed less than 74.5% of his passes

- Career 18 TD, 2 INT

 
Last edited by a moderator:
cstu said:
cfbstats lets you break things down by down & distance. On 3rd & 10+, Winston got a first down on 34% (13/38) of his pass attempts vs. 32% (7/22) for Mariota; league average was 25%. But if you include sacks & runs, then that becomes 35% for Winston (14/40) vs. 25% for Mariota (8/32).
Click to expand...
Mariota in the 4th quarter:

- Ridiculous 233.29 rating last year, in 2013 he had 207.70.

- Never completed less than 74.5% of his passes

- Career 18 TD, 2 INT
Click to expand...
He gets better after the other team is exhausted?

He gets better after the other team is down by 20 and mailing it in?

Impressive.

 
ZWK said:
cfbstats lets you break things down by down & distance. On 3rd & 10+, Winston got a first down on 34% (13/38) of his pass attempts vs. 32% (7/22) for Mariota; league average was 25%. But if you include sacks & runs, then that becomes 35% for Winston (14/40) vs. 25% for Mariota (8/32).
Click to expand...
Mariota was better than Winston on 3rd down with 7-9 yards to go, though. If we include those too (including sacks & runs), it's a 34% conversion rate for Mariota (20/59) on 3rd & 7+ vs. 35% for Winston (23/65).

 
davearm said:
cstu said:
cfbstats lets you break things down by down & distance. On 3rd & 10+, Winston got a first down on 34% (13/38) of his pass attempts vs. 32% (7/22) for Mariota; league average was 25%. But if you include sacks & runs, then that becomes 35% for Winston (14/40) vs. 25% for Mariota (8/32).
Click to expand...
Mariota in the 4th quarter:

- Ridiculous 233.29 rating last year, in 2013 he had 207.70.

- Never completed less than 74.5% of his passes

- Career 18 TD, 2 INT
Click to expand...
He gets better after the other team is exhausted?

He gets better after the other team is down by 20 and mailing it in?

Impressive.
Click to expand...
I would say yes, but you might want to ask the Seminoles.

He really cranks it up after the other team quits, just ask Herbstreet.

 
I have heard conflicting reports about linking Koetter to Mariota. Some are saying he ran a similar spread offense at Boise state & ASU. But the other day Koetter said on the radio Helfrixh learned it all under Chip Kelly.

 
Rotoworld:

Marcus Mariota - QB - Ducks

Oregon redshirt junior Marcus Mariota said he hasn't made a decision about the NFL Draft.

"I really haven't made my decision yet," Mariota said at media day for the College Football Playoff National Championship Game. "I don't know if that's my future. It hasn't been a distraction because I'm really just focusing on this game and making sure I go out there prepared." The deadline to declare (Jan. 15) is just three days after the title game. "I think all of us kind of know what he's thinking and what he's going to do," Oregon offensive coordinator Scott Frost told the media prior to the Rose Bowl. "But with him, hey, nobody knows for sure." The 6-foot-4, 219-pound Mariota is the frontrunner to go No. 1 overall. Heading into Monday's tilt with the Buckeyes, he has 4,121 pass yards, 40 touchdowns, 731 rushing yards, 15 rushing touchdowns, a receiving score, and has the Heisman trophy in his pocket. Mariota has been clocked at 4.48 seconds in the 40-yard dash.

Source: NFL.com

Jan 10 - 11:00 PM
Click to expand...
 
The CFB Championship will provide a good scouting opportunity on Mariota, as he will be without one of his weapons:

Helfrich: Oregon WR Darren Carrington ineligible for title game

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000455926/article/helfrich-oregon-wr-darren-carrington-ineligible-for-title-game

Rotoworld:

Bralon Addison - WR - Ducks

Oregon offensive coordinator Scott Frost admits that the program has discussed playing junior WR Bralon Addison (ACL) in the National Championship game versus Ohio State.

"There's been some discussion of a couple of things like that," said offensive coordinator Scott Frost. "I think Bralon is healthy enough to play but I don't think that's something we want to do. Bralon looks back and ready to go. Obviously, we'd like to have two more years with him." The Ducks could really use Addison -- the school's projected No. 1 WR before tearing his ACL in April -- after suspending WR Darren Carrington. Debate amongst the coaching staff must be fierce on this issue. Playing Addison might increase Oregon's chances of winnings its first national title, but it would also burn his redshirt and deprive him of one season of eligibility.

Source: NFL.com

Jan 10 - 10:29 PM
Click to expand...
Oregon hoops star could make an impact on CFB title game:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000456582/article/oregon-hoops-star-could-make-an-impact-on-cfb-title-game

 
The CFB Championship will provide a good scouting opportunity on Mariota, as he will be without one of his weapons:

Helfrich: Oregon WR Darren Carrington ineligible for title game
Click to expand...
His big play receiver...

:shock:

 
Rotoworld:

Oregon redshirt junior Marcus Mariota "is potentially a special weapon because of his speed in an era of dual-threat quarterbacks and has intriguing potential as a passer," according to CBS Sports' Rob Rang.

"He is not, however, the 'can't miss' prospect that some imply," Rang wrote. "Physically, he is most like Colin Kaepernick, formerly of Reno and now with the San Francisco 49ers. Mariota ... is a good, not great, pocket passer at this time and could struggle with the tighter windows he'll see in the NFL." The 6-foot-4, 219-pound Mariota, who runs a 4.48 second forty, heads into the National Championship Game having thrown for 4,121 yards and 40 touchdowns. He's also collected 731 rushing yards, 15 rushing touchdowns, and a receiving score.

Source: CBS Sports
Jan 12 - 8:28 PM
Click to expand...
 
jurb26 said:
mr roboto said:
jurb26 said:
mr roboto said:
jurb26 said:
mr roboto said:
Stats compiled over 300 distinct occurrences have 0 credibility cause I watched a 2% sample and despite the corresponding stats I didn't like the way they looked!
Click to expand...
How do you know I've only watched 2% of Mariota's games/throws?I can assure you it's been significantly more than that. Hell, I've got way more than that still recorded just from this year.
Click to expand...
Sorry. Just going by your comment about the Sugar Bowl where you admitted he had a great statistical game yet was by your estimation inaccurate.
Click to expand...
Did you watch the game and come away with a different impression?
Click to expand...
I saw poor throws. It seemed like he settled down after the first half. Both QBs were less than impressive that first half. I get what you are saying but you don't get gaudy stats, ratings, completion % in any season at any level by being 'inaccurate'.
Click to expand...
I don't disagree but it's about perspective. He is inaccurate in correlation to Winston. That doesn't mean he is inaccurate in correlation to everyone else. I think Mariota misses way too many throws for the ease of his offense, personally. I also see the potential in his ability. They are separate things to me. He has a very good arm and can make any throw. He has clean mechanics with a quick delivery. He just misses a lot of easy throws or makes them harder than they need to be.

Case in point. There was a critical 3rd down conversion Oregon made with a simple flat pass where Mariota delivered the ball, late, high and inside. The WR made a great adjustment to catch the pass and pick up the first. The pass was extremely inaccurate. It was only caught because no defender was within 6 yds and it should have gone for at least 5 yds more had it been accurately thrown.
Click to expand...
Mariota with another terrible throw in the flat.
 
Mariota ripped a 40 yd pass at a dead run (the one the WR dropped). Yet he puts way too much air under those short passes.

He has good enough arm strength. If he can work on stepping into his throws more consistently.

 
mr roboto said:
Mariota ripped a 40 yd pass at a dead run (the one the WR dropped). Yet he puts way too much air under those short passes.

He has good enough arm strength. If he can work on stepping into his throws more consistently.
Click to expand...
His accuracy problem is a foot problem primarily.
 
jurb26 said:
mr roboto said:
Mariota ripped a 40 yd pass at a dead run (the one the WR dropped). Yet he puts way too much air under those short passes.

He has good enough arm strength. If he can work on stepping into his throws more consistently.
Click to expand...
His accuracy problem is a foot problem primarily.
Click to expand...
He does that leaping gazelle-like kick on his scrambling throws and actually seems to get more accurate. It's almost like he flings the ball with his wrist and falls away from the short throws. I've seen this with Teddy in MN this year.
 
Yeah, it's amazing how good Mike Evans has been in college and as a rookie without ever having a real qb throw him a pass yet.

 
Bracie Smathers said:
CalBear said:
Bracie Smathers said:
DocHolliday said:
Dilfer is actully mostly correct. Mariota is not truly NFL ready. He will have to learn an entirely new way of running an offense. He should sit for a year. I doubt he slips as far as Dilfer suggests though. This is a QB league. Many teams know that they do not have the QB that they need and must take a chance on someone with the possibility of talent.
Click to expand...
I find myself agreeing with Dilfer and others who have raised questions about Mariota.

The Oregon offense schemes-open WRs so the QB has easy shorter quicker throws and he doesn't face as many tight-quarter throws from the pocket that a guy like Jameis Winston made from a Pro Set traditional NFL type offense.
Click to expand...
What if the team Mariota goes to doesn't run a "Pro Set traditional NFL type offense"? NFL teams increasingly don't.
Click to expand...
The other day Greg Cosell said that no matter what offense that Mariota eventually goes to he will find himself in 3rd and long situations just like Mark Sanchez found himself in with Chip Kelly's offense and that the questions whether or not he can fit the ball into tight windows will be answered. Cosell brought up other issues about Mariota's game that Dilfer didn't touch on concerning his footwork.

But you are right many teams are operating spread-WC-type offenses based on short throws and empty backfields and bunched WR sets, etc. But even in those offenses the quarterback will eventually find himself in a 3rd and long where he's going to have to nail those 5 or 7 step drops and he's going to have to hit those tight window throws and those are the concerns being raised about Mariota's game and why he'll likely have to develop before those questions can be answered.
Click to expand...
In the championship game Mariota has done damage when its been schemed or on deception but on third and long plays he hasn't been as effective.

Oregon does a great job of scheming open receivers. The super quick hurry-up works well in college but hasn't really took as a base offense in the NFL.

Mariota has size and an arm and he's been successful in college but faces a lot of questions entering the draft evaluation process due to the offense that Oregon runs.

 
Have seen way too many of his short passes hanging the receiver out to dry. Have seen about 5 decent intermediate throws in 4 games. Have seen really soft passes eventually get there, and big plays made, because no one was within 9 yards of receiver.

Maybe he can throw the 12 yard out. Maybe he can throw receivers open, with anticipation.

How would we know?

 
He's not going to be the top pick guys. Can put that one to bed. Probably could have before this game too.

 
massraider said:
Have seen way too many of his short passes hanging the receiver out to dry. Have seen about 5 decent intermediate throws in 4 games. Have seen really soft passes eventually get there, and big plays made, because no one was within 9 yards of receiver.

Maybe he can throw the 12 yard out. Maybe he can throw receivers open, with anticipation.

How would we know?
Click to expand...
His best passes are the hitch, curl and post.
 
He just ripped a ball after hurting his shoulder. He's got the arm this system just doesn't ask him to use it.

 
Just saying he's got enough arm. Can he learn all the throws in the NFL? Honestly I don't know. But from what I've seen he's got enough velocity.

 
Strange that the overly pro Mariota crowd is silent tonight and he actually played better than in the FSU game.

 
Still to this day every time I have watched him (which is only a few times) I do not get the sense he is going to be any sort of great pro.

 
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