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Jordy Nelson's Value (with Seneca) (1 Viewer)

starks

starks

Footballguy
Obviously it takes a hit, but I am not jumping off a cliff as of yet.

GB is going to want Seneca to be a game manager, and by that I mean hand the ball off to Lacy without fumbling it. But that is only going to work for the first couple of quarters. This defense is in shambles and I think all pass catchers for GB are in for some serious junk points in the second half and especially 4th quarter.

Jordy has been killing it on the long ball this year but now it's time for him to work the slot like the blue hairs in Vegas. I see him retaining the most value out of any of the wideouts, especially in ppr. I am pissed but not going to bench him for the waiver wire add d'jour.

 
Down the toilet. Seneca stinks. Hes prolly no better than a WR3 imo now. He had 3 catches for 40 yards last night with Seneca chucking the ball against the Bears lousy defense.

 
Low-end WR2 status in PPR for me. No more weekly 25-30 point upside, but like you said, the garbage time should produce enough volume to keep him active. The 1-3 yard TD's Rodgers and Nelson had going will now turn into runs with Lacy and Wallace. But I still believe in Jordy's talent, so he should be good for 6-8 catches per game with a very low YPC.

 
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He still gets open and he still catches whatever is thrown his way. That's the kind of guy a QB stepping into the starting role is going to be looking for, play after play. I think Jordy drops from a WR1 to a WR2 with Seneca mostly due to a reduction in TD opportunities.

 
It takes the top off his ceiling but his overall targets may increase. Lower quality targets but should see some more of them.

 
He's still a high end WR2 for me. He will be a safety blanket. Giant upside no longer there though, but he'll still be solid.

 
The value/production takes a significant hit. Without the long ball connection that is such a big part of Nelson's weekly point value, the only way to recapture that is to use him in the red zone, which will go to Lacy if really close or Wallace as a scrambler (something that is overlooked but he actually does quite well).

It really isn't in the Packers' style of play to suddenly make him a slot player, especially if Cobb returns (the timing probably doesn't look likely for that though).

Also, with the weather turning colder, this is the time of the year where the Packers would want to start running it a bit more anyway, especially getting the Vikings, Falcons and Steelers at home. I know it looks odd to say "run on" and "Steelers" in the same sentence but this group of Steelers can be run on and they are aging a week every day when they are on the field.§

 
In PPR, Jordy is still a WR2, but I agree with everyone else, his old upside is gone. In non PPR, he's more a WR3, due to the fact the deep ball won't be there nearly as much as with Rodgers.

Teams are now going to gear up to stop the run, so Jordy will get his chances, the question is....can Wallace deliver the ball?

But still, expect Lacy to get 20-25 carries a game, with Starks coming in for another 5-10 more. GB is a run first team now.

 
Nelson is toast. Wallace can't throw and makes poor decisions.

Last night I was freaking out and then told myself to take a breather. All you have to do is throw a slant and Jordy will do the rest. Then it became clear that Wallace can't make that pass. Tried to throw it on a few occasions and kept throwing it behind him.

:wall:

 
I wish this thread title was not just about Jordy, because every Packer player and roster spot is affected.

I have been loading up on Green Bay everywhere - Jordy, Boykin, Crosby, DST - and, then sure enough Rodgers came out zipping it to Jordy last night, another great game was underway. Then, I cannot imagine a more dramatic turnaround from looking so positive given the schedule and talent and everything coming together to absolute near zero in so short a time.

I had the "pleasure" of watching Seneca Wallace this preseason for the Saints, in game and at training camp, and though he was hurt a good bit (another possibility to ponder), he played quite enough to see how much he had detriorated from having been a pretty decent fill-in QB back in the day in Seattle. He stunk in Cleveland before he was out for a year altogether. After NO, San Fran had him in for a ham sandwich for about a week before they sent him packing, they liked Colt McCoy better.

When he came in and immediately threw that pick to Peppers I recognized it instantly. So, so bad. B.A.D. Bad.

What the heck is he doing there? I thought Graham Harrelll had promise but the Packers have just been trying to replace him with Young, now Wallace. McCarthy is not that great of a coach, he had Rodgers fall in his lap. McCarthy is the same guy that tried to turn Aaron Brooks into real live starting material for years, over Marc Bulger and Jake Delhomme.

 
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Seneca was terrible last night but give him a week of first team reps and I bet he comes out more prepared against a Philly D that can be passed on. Still not a good QB but more prepared nonetheless.

 
starks said:
Seneca was terrible last night but give him a week of first team reps and I bet he comes out more prepared against a Philly D that can be passed on. Still not a good QB but more prepared nonetheless.
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I might pick up the Eagles defense, how about that?

Actually I may pick up Cooper & Henery and drop Boykin and Crosby also.

 
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I think he'll be fine this week against eagles. Seneca going to take first team reps all week. Tough to come in ice cold/unprepared and expect to look great.

 
The upside is gone for sure. I had a slight lead last night and had Jordy vs Marshall. I knew it was over after Wallace came in the game. I'll still play him against the poor Eagles defense and re-evaluate after that.

 
WR low end 3 maybe 4 going forward. Lacy will be a top 5 RB going forward. I see the TE position moving up as Wallace can't throw much past 10 yards.

 
Philly horrible against the pass. He'll be fine this week. Still a top 5-10 option. On top of that, teams are going to focus on stopping the run now. Anyone thinking Rodgers absence will help Lacy has it backwards. Those holes you can drive a truck through will be gone.

 
JAMES! said:
Philly horrible against the pass. He'll be fine this week. Still a top 5-10 option. On top of that, teams are going to focus on stopping the run now. Anyone thinking Rodgers absence will help Lacy has it backwards. Those holes you can drive a truck through will be gone.
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I agree this doesn't help Lacy but Nelson being top 5-10 is pure wishful thinking. he's a wr3 at best until Rodgers returns.
 
Second Sight said:
The value/production takes a significant hit. Without the long ball connection that is such a big part of Nelson's weekly point value, the only way to recapture that is to use him in the red zone, which will go to Lacy if really close or Wallace as a scrambler (something that is overlooked but he actually does quite well).

It really isn't in the Packers' style of play to suddenly make him a slot player, especially if Cobb returns (the timing probably doesn't look likely for that though).

Also, with the weather turning colder, this is the time of the year where the Packers would want to start running it a bit more anyway, especially getting the Vikings, Falcons and Steelers at home. I know it looks odd to say "run on" and "Steelers" in the same sentence but this group of Steelers can be run on and they are aging a week every day when they are on the field.§
Click to expand...
Actually, Jordy caught both of his TDs last week from the slot position. Green Bay was moving him around quite a bit while trying to exploit favorable matchups for him, which obviously worked that week. How much they'll keep doing that with a different QB I don't know.

 
thehornet said:
JAMES! said:
Philly horrible against the pass. He'll be fine this week. Still a top 5-10 option. On top of that, teams are going to focus on stopping the run now. Anyone thinking Rodgers absence will help Lacy has it backwards. Those holes you can drive a truck through will be gone.
Click to expand...
I agree this doesn't help Lacy but Nelson being top 5-10 is pure wishful thinking. he's a wr3 at best until Rodgers returns.
Click to expand...
He's going to get less attention now. Seneca is no Rodgers obviously but to think he's just going to fall off a cliff is nuts. Defenses going to dare Seneca to beat them. Jordy may get more targets. The sky is not falling.

 
JAMES! said:
thehornet said:
JAMES! said:
Philly horrible against the pass. He'll be fine this week. Still a top 5-10 option. On top of that, teams are going to focus on stopping the run now. Anyone thinking Rodgers absence will help Lacy has it backwards. Those holes you can drive a truck through will be gone.
Click to expand...
I agree this doesn't help Lacy but Nelson being top 5-10 is pure wishful thinking. he's a wr3 at best until Rodgers returns.
Click to expand...
He's going to get less attention now. Seneca is no Rodgers obviously but to think he's just going to fall off a cliff is nuts. Defenses going to dare Seneca to beat them. Jordy may get more targets. The sky is not falling.
Click to expand...
hmm. sorry man, I understand the thought process but it isn't going to work like that. they will be a run first offense with lacy/Starks. passing attempts will go way down. James jones is coming back. Jordy is cooked as a wr1/2. He'll be a serviceable wr3 with some wr2 weeks
 
thehornet said:
JAMES! said:
thehornet said:
JAMES! said:
Philly horrible against the pass. He'll be fine this week. Still a top 5-10 option. On top of that, teams are going to focus on stopping the run now. Anyone thinking Rodgers absence will help Lacy has it backwards. Those holes you can drive a truck through will be gone.
Click to expand...
I agree this doesn't help Lacy but Nelson being top 5-10 is pure wishful thinking. he's a wr3 at best until Rodgers returns.
Click to expand...
He's going to get less attention now. Seneca is no Rodgers obviously but to think he's just going to fall off a cliff is nuts. Defenses going to dare Seneca to beat them. Jordy may get more targets. The sky is not falling.
Click to expand...
hmm. sorry man, I understand the thought process but it isn't going to work like that. they will be a run first offense with lacy/Starks. passing attempts will go way down. James jones is coming back. Jordy is cooked as a wr1/2. He'll be a serviceable wr3 with some wr2 weeks
Click to expand...
I think your take here is overly simplistic. Offenses take what the defense gives them. There will be 8 in the box until Rodgers returns. This injury hurts Lacy/Starks more than it hurts Nelson.

 
JAMES! said:
thehornet said:
JAMES! said:
Philly horrible against the pass. He'll be fine this week. Still a top 5-10 option. On top of that, teams are going to focus on stopping the run now. Anyone thinking Rodgers absence will help Lacy has it backwards. Those holes you can drive a truck through will be gone.
Click to expand...
I agree this doesn't help Lacy but Nelson being top 5-10 is pure wishful thinking. he's a wr3 at best until Rodgers returns.
Click to expand...
He's going to get less attention now. Seneca is no Rodgers obviously but to think he's just going to fall off a cliff is nuts. Defenses going to dare Seneca to beat them. Jordy may get more targets. The sky is not falling.
Click to expand...
Two things:

1) The bolded is not true...at all. Nelson will likely see fewer targets, as the Packers will not only be run-centric, but will also have fewer offensive plays, as their offense will be less effective. Also, running the ball a lot tends to "shorten" games, also leading to fewer offensive plays.

2) The quality of the guy throwing the ball is not the same - so target numbers don't matter as much. There is a difference between being targeted by Aaron Rodgers and targeted by Seneca Wallace. Heck, Peppers' INT was a Nelson target on the slant. Last night, Nelson was targeted 8 times by Wallace - he caught 3. Save for one game in Baltimore, Jordy has a catch rate of 75% of his targets (or higher) in the other 6 games. That % is going to go waaaay down with Seneca Wallace throwing the ball. I'd say 50% is a fair expectation - at 15 yards per, that's about 4-5 completions/game for about 60 yards and an occasional score. That's something - but that's nowhere near WR1 territory - and actually, weakish WR2 depending on the number of teams in your league. Think right around where Denarius Moore is going forward (his pace is almost exactly the above numbers).

 
JAMES! said:
thehornet said:
JAMES! said:
thehornet said:
JAMES! said:
Philly horrible against the pass. He'll be fine this week. Still a top 5-10 option. On top of that, teams are going to focus on stopping the run now. Anyone thinking Rodgers absence will help Lacy has it backwards. Those holes you can drive a truck through will be gone.
Click to expand...
I agree this doesn't help Lacy but Nelson being top 5-10 is pure wishful thinking. he's a wr3 at best until Rodgers returns.
Click to expand...
He's going to get less attention now. Seneca is no Rodgers obviously but to think he's just going to fall off a cliff is nuts. Defenses going to dare Seneca to beat them. Jordy may get more targets. The sky is not falling.
Click to expand...
hmm. sorry man, I understand the thought process but it isn't going to work like that. they will be a run first offense with lacy/Starks. passing attempts will go way down. James jones is coming back. Jordy is cooked as a wr1/2. He'll be a serviceable wr3 with some wr2 weeks
Click to expand...
I think your take here is overly simplistic. Offenses take what the defense gives them. There will be 8 in the box until Rodgers returns. This injury hurts Lacy/Starks more than it hurts Nelson.
Click to expand...
Ahh no. if anything, you are looking at this with rose colored goggles. I am being realistic and using knowledge of Wallace as a qb and have no dogs in this race. you are probably a nervous jordy owner. and the whole 8 in the box argument is a little overplayed. please provide the breakdown of how many 8 box fronts Green Bay faced last night when Wallace entered the game.

by the way, lacy went for approx 100 yards and a touchdown after Rodgers left the game. jordy on the other hand caught like 3 slant routes.

 
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DoubleG said:
JAMES! said:
thehornet said:
JAMES! said:
Philly horrible against the pass. He'll be fine this week. Still a top 5-10 option. On top of that, teams are going to focus on stopping the run now. Anyone thinking Rodgers absence will help Lacy has it backwards. Those holes you can drive a truck through will be gone.
Click to expand...
I agree this doesn't help Lacy but Nelson being top 5-10 is pure wishful thinking. he's a wr3 at best until Rodgers returns.
Click to expand...
He's going to get less attention now. Seneca is no Rodgers obviously but to think he's just going to fall off a cliff is nuts. Defenses going to dare Seneca to beat them. Jordy may get more targets. The sky is not falling.
Click to expand...
Two things:

1) The bolded is not true...at all. Nelson will likely see fewer targets, as the Packers will not only be run-centric, but will also have fewer offensive plays, as their offense will be less effective. Also, running the ball a lot tends to "shorten" games, also leading to fewer offensive plays.

2) The quality of the guy throwing the ball is not the same - so target numbers don't matter as much. There is a difference between being targeted by Aaron Rodgers and targeted by Seneca Wallace. Heck, Peppers' INT was a Nelson target on the slant. Last night, Nelson was targeted 8 times by Wallace - he caught 3. Save for one game in Baltimore, Jordy has a catch rate of 75% of his targets (or higher) in the other 6 games. That % is going to go waaaay down with Seneca Wallace throwing the ball. I'd say 50% is a fair expectation - at 15 yards per, that's about 4-5 completions/game for about 60 yards and an occasional score. That's something - but that's nowhere near WR1 territory - and actually, weakish WR2 depending on the number of teams in your league. Think right around where Denarius Moore is going forward (his pace is almost exactly the above numbers).
Click to expand...
He got 8 targets from a guy who's barely practiced with him. Seneca will be better next week AND they play one of the worst pass defenses in the league in Philly. I guess we'll see what happens. People just coming out and saying, "this team is just going to pound Lacy/Starks now and only throw when they have to" is just short sighted. Opposing defenses are going to stack the box now. No more cover 2's for Jordy.

 
JAMES! said:
DoubleG said:
JAMES! said:
thehornet said:
JAMES! said:
Philly horrible against the pass. He'll be fine this week. Still a top 5-10 option. On top of that, teams are going to focus on stopping the run now. Anyone thinking Rodgers absence will help Lacy has it backwards. Those holes you can drive a truck through will be gone.
Click to expand...
I agree this doesn't help Lacy but Nelson being top 5-10 is pure wishful thinking. he's a wr3 at best until Rodgers returns.
Click to expand...
He's going to get less attention now. Seneca is no Rodgers obviously but to think he's just going to fall off a cliff is nuts. Defenses going to dare Seneca to beat them. Jordy may get more targets. The sky is not falling.
Click to expand...
Two things:1) The bolded is not true...at all. Nelson will likely see fewer targets, as the Packers will not only be run-centric, but will also have fewer offensive plays, as their offense will be less effective. Also, running the ball a lot tends to "shorten" games, also leading to fewer offensive plays.

2) The quality of the guy throwing the ball is not the same - so target numbers don't matter as much. There is a difference between being targeted by Aaron Rodgers and targeted by Seneca Wallace. Heck, Peppers' INT was a Nelson target on the slant. Last night, Nelson was targeted 8 times by Wallace - he caught 3. Save for one game in Baltimore, Jordy has a catch rate of 75% of his targets (or higher) in the other 6 games. That % is going to go waaaay down with Seneca Wallace throwing the ball. I'd say 50% is a fair expectation - at 15 yards per, that's about 4-5 completions/game for about 60 yards and an occasional score. That's something - but that's nowhere near WR1 territory - and actually, weakish WR2 depending on the number of teams in your league. Think right around where Denarius Moore is going forward (his pace is almost exactly the above numbers).
Click to expand...
He got 8 targets from a guy who's barely practiced with him. Seneca will be better next week AND they play one of the worst pass defenses in the league in Philly. I guess we'll see what happens. People just coming out and saying, "this team is just going to pound Lacy/Starks now and only throw when they have to" is just short sighted. Opposing defenses are going to stack the box now. No more cover 2's for Jordy.
Click to expand...
. because 8 Seneca targets are the same as 8 Rodgers targets...k I'm done, you know where I stand. I'm just trying to help jordy owners plan. I've seen how the Seneca Wallace expirement ends. good luck.
 
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Ummm... the Bears played 8 man fronts last night - most of the time. Jordy got 8 targets - and caught 3 - for 40 yards and no TDs. And in case you missed it - the Bears ARE one of the worst passing defenses as well. They are 23rd now - and they moved up several spots after last night.

A few things I thing you are missing:

Quarless had more receptions than Jordy last night (and one of Jordy's was from Rodgers). Let that sink in for a minute.

Seneca Wallace was 11 of 19 for 114 yards passing. To put that in perspective - that's less than Blain Gabbert has averaged in his 3 starts this season (Gabbert averages 160 yards passing per game).

I take it you own Jordy Nelson?

 
DoubleG said:
Ummm... the Bears played 8 man fronts last night - most of the time. Jordy got 8 targets - and caught 3 - for 40 yards and no TDs. And in case you missed it - the Bears ARE one of the worst passing defenses as well. They are 23rd now - and they moved up several spots after last night.

A few things I thing you are missing:

Quarless had more receptions than Jordy last night (and one of Jordy's was from Rodgers). Let that sink in for a minute.

Seneca Wallace was 11 of 19 for 114 yards passing. To put that in perspective - that's less than Blain Gabbert has averaged in his 3 starts this season (Gabbert averages 160 yards passing per game).

I take it you own Jordy Nelson?
Click to expand...
Yes, bump Quarless, from TE25 to TE18.

 
Pretty obvious from the stat lines across the board that Seneca is gonna kill all the WR/TE potential. Horrible. They were talking about the pack maybe bringing in Matt Flynn when he clears waivers since he is familiar with their system and had success. Can't be worse than Wallace. If that happens it may not be as bad since he had huge games in their system.

 
DoubleG said:
Ummm... the Bears played 8 man fronts last night - most of the time. Jordy got 8 targets - and caught 3 - for 40 yards and no TDs. And in case you missed it - the Bears ARE one of the worst passing defenses as well. They are 23rd now - and they moved up several spots after last night.

A few things I thing you are missing:

Quarless had more receptions than Jordy last night (and one of Jordy's was from Rodgers). Let that sink in for a minute.

Seneca Wallace was 11 of 19 for 114 yards passing. To put that in perspective - that's less than Blain Gabbert has averaged in his 3 starts this season (Gabbert averages 160 yards passing per game).

I take it you own Jordy Nelson?
Click to expand...
I know you know that Wallace came in off the bench without taking any 1st team reps in practice - so why do you try to compare his game stats to what Gabbert has done? Wallace does not have starting QB talent - we all know that. But he is a smart, capable backup QB and that is why he has had a job in the league for 10 years. It's foolish to assume you know how he will play in future games based on last nights game. If he goes out and craps the bed against PHI - then you have some evidence of how he may play in Rodgers absence but until then you're just guessing.

 
DoubleG said:
Ummm... the Bears played 8 man fronts last night - most of the time. Jordy got 8 targets - and caught 3 - for 40 yards and no TDs. And in case you missed it - the Bears ARE one of the worst passing defenses as well. They are 23rd now - and they moved up several spots after last night.

A few things I thing you are missing:

Quarless had more receptions than Jordy last night (and one of Jordy's was from Rodgers). Let that sink in for a minute.

Seneca Wallace was 11 of 19 for 114 yards passing. To put that in perspective - that's less than Blain Gabbert has averaged in his 3 starts this season (Gabbert averages 160 yards passing per game).

I take it you own Jordy Nelson?
Click to expand...
Chicago pass D is middle of the pack. Philly is dead last. Mike McCarthy isn't a brainiac but to think he'll simply say "hey guys, we're just going to run it more" is short sighted. This team is going to throw it next week against the worst pass D in the league who's going to dare Wallace to beat him. I say Jordy is a top 10 play next week. We'll find out.

 
MarcO said:
DoubleG said:
Ummm... the Bears played 8 man fronts last night - most of the time. Jordy got 8 targets - and caught 3 - for 40 yards and no TDs. And in case you missed it - the Bears ARE one of the worst passing defenses as well. They are 23rd now - and they moved up several spots after last night.

A few things I thing you are missing:

Quarless had more receptions than Jordy last night (and one of Jordy's was from Rodgers). Let that sink in for a minute.

Seneca Wallace was 11 of 19 for 114 yards passing. To put that in perspective - that's less than Blain Gabbert has averaged in his 3 starts this season (Gabbert averages 160 yards passing per game).

I take it you own Jordy Nelson?
Click to expand...
I know you know that Wallace came in off the bench without taking any 1st team reps in practice - so why do you try to compare his game stats to what Gabbert has done? Wallace does not have starting QB talent - we all know that. But he is a smart, capable backup QB and that is why he has had a job in the league for 10 years. It's foolish to assume you know how he will play in future games based on last nights game. If he goes out and craps the bed against PHI - then you have some evidence of how he may play in Rodgers absence but until then you're just guessing.
Click to expand...
Hold on - just to be clear - he was pretty good in Seattle way back when, but he was out of football for a year.

His last season(s) before that was in Cleveland where he was pretty bad.

The Saints had him in the offseason and preseason and he was well outplayed by Luke McCown. I saw him play at camp and in preseason, it was not good.

Not only that but he went to San Fran which used him to try to get Colt McCoy to lower his salary but no matter what he was never in the running there.

 
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I don't even think Wallace is going to last, either because of injury or performance.

If not a current free agent, Tolzien will be making an appearance.

 
JAMES! said:
I think he'll be fine this week against eagles. Seneca going to take first team reps all week. Tough to come in ice cold/unprepared be Seneca Wallace and expect to look great.
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fixed.

 
Will likely be riding my bench until Rogers returns. Not enough upside to play over my other WRs (Green, Garcon, and Decker) or in the flex.

 
The packers play the Eagles Giants Viking Lions next four weeks. All pretty favorable matchups. I'm tempering my expectations but I'm not benching or selling on Nelson.

 
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SaintsInDome2006 said:
MarcO said:
DoubleG said:
Ummm... the Bears played 8 man fronts last night - most of the time. Jordy got 8 targets - and caught 3 - for 40 yards and no TDs. And in case you missed it - the Bears ARE one of the worst passing defenses as well. They are 23rd now - and they moved up several spots after last night.

A few things I thing you are missing:

Quarless had more receptions than Jordy last night (and one of Jordy's was from Rodgers). Let that sink in for a minute.

Seneca Wallace was 11 of 19 for 114 yards passing. To put that in perspective - that's less than Blain Gabbert has averaged in his 3 starts this season (Gabbert averages 160 yards passing per game).

I take it you own Jordy Nelson?
Click to expand...
I know you know that Wallace came in off the bench without taking any 1st team reps in practice - so why do you try to compare his game stats to what Gabbert has done? Wallace does not have starting QB talent - we all know that. But he is a smart, capable backup QB and that is why he has had a job in the league for 10 years. It's foolish to assume you know how he will play in future games based on last nights game. If he goes out and craps the bed against PHI - then you have some evidence of how he may play in Rodgers absence but until then you're just guessing.
Click to expand...
Hold on - just to be clear - he was pretty good in Seattle way back when, but he was out of football for a year.

His last season(s) before that was in Cleveland where he was pretty bad.

The Saints had him in the offseason and preseason and he was well outplayed by Luke McCown. I saw him play at camp and in preseason, it was not good.

Not only that but he went to San Fran which used him to try to get Colt McCoy to lower his salary but no matter what he was never in the running there.
Click to expand...
Not arguing with anything you wrote. Just saying I'd wait one more week before declaring Jordy Nelson (or any Pack player) benched. Wallace has shown that he is a capable backup QB on some pretty talent poor teams - in this case he actually has some talent around him.

 
Looks like we are stuck with Wallace.

According to ESPN Milwaukee, the Packers are still concerned that waived QB Matt Flynn has arm issues.
Flynn's elbow problems have caused his already noodled arm to become even more withered. As Ed Werder reported a month ago, it's part of the reason the Packers didn't sign Flynn after the Raiders released him in early October. So even though Aaron Rodgers' ex-backup was waived by the Bills Monday, a claim from Green Bay is not expected. For now, they appear content to ride with Seneca Wallace while Rodgers' collarbone heals up.
Click to expand...
 
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