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Fleener (1 Viewer)

I'm in a league that the TE's get 1.5 PPR. The TE's go fast do to the scoring, because he has not done much in the preseason he slipped to the 6th and I was thrilled, he has been going 2 rounds earlier. The preseason is sometimes way overlooked, he will do just fine and is still possible a top TE this year.

 
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I feel like the Brees effect gives you a built in floor, to go with a sky high ceiling. He may not end up as a top 5 TE, but he should be going about that high in any TE premium league, IMO. If he goes later than that, consider it a bonus

 
I still think he's a top 5 TE when the season ends and all the #s add up. He might not even start that slowly - he's had a little trouble with routes, but with the dark clouds comes the silver lining that he's also had "a lot of really good moments".  As FFB-ers, I think we tend to read only the bad news and fixate on it, obsess over it, cause us to drop players in rankings too far, while the speck of good news gets dramatically overshadowed. 

The good news here is that Drew Brees turns mediocre TEs into total studs. And Fleener has shown signs of being more than mediocre - I think he scores 8-10 TDs this year. With the shaky OL, I expect dump-offs to Snead underneath, Ingram (who I don't see catching 50 again) and Fleener. If Fleener can run a TE seam, and occasionally get open in the red zone, he's gonna be a monster. 

 
Pwingles said:
I feel like the Brees effect gives you a built in floor, to go with a sky high ceiling. He may not end up as a top 5 TE, but he should be going about that high in any TE premium league, IMO. If he goes later than that, consider it a bonus
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He has been drafted for that upside, that's the issue.  

He can have a Ben Watson year, but Watson 2016 would have more value, because he wasn't drafted in rounds 4-6.  

 
massraider said:
He has been drafted for that upside, that's the issue.  

He can have a Ben Watson year, but Watson 2016 would have more value, because he wasn't drafted in rounds 4-6.  
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I feel like this is just bad logic

You are assuming a lot of things here, and maybe the line of thinking would make sense if you used different examples but this is just bad

Watson has never (ever) mattered in FF in his billion seasons until Brees was his QB. He has now parlayed that into a new deal with a new team and a terrible QB. Not to mention, the 26 other TEs on that roster. He is ancient. His qb is terrible. The volume will absolutely not be there for the TEs on that team, let alone a singular one in a platoon.

Fleener has every edge in this comp, sans an outlier year from Watson.

Drafted on his upside is an issue? Even if his floor is almost automatically higher? Id bet if we looked back at all the Brees starting TE since he has been in NO, they have all been relevant. So if being fantasy relevant is your floor, im not sure what the issue is at a position as shallow as TE. If you have a shot at a sky high ceiling, is the gamble really that bad? Assuming no injruy, he would have to be just super terrible for this to be, and i doubt he is that bad.

 
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Yep, that's a mis-type on my part.

I mean to say that Watson 2015 is more valuable than Fleener 2016, because of the relative cost.  Fleener can have a good year, but he needs to, because of where he is drafted.  

To answer your question, yeah, drafting for upside can be an issue.  This isn't Antonio Gates, getting drafted because he is just trucking along, doing the same thing again and again.  This is drafting a guy higher than his previous performance suggests he should be getting drafted.  His ranking is largely less to do with him as a player, and the fact that Jimmy Graham once played there, and Watson had a big year. 

 
There is no risk free method to drafting players in FF, imo. Each approach has some merit but also some downsides. Sometimes you just have to evaluate for yourself how much something is actually a gamble, weigh the possibilities and make the best decision for your squad. You could argue day and night about any pick in the front half of a draft being too much of a risk vs their ADP. If youre in a league that starts 1 or 0 TEs, and doesnt have bonus PPR, I would have no problem with letting him go by at his ADP if you are a confident streamer. But in the scenario i previously spoke about, with premium TE leagues, you would be crazy to not take a swing at his upside, IMO. Brees is too dynamic, and the volume is almost a guarantee. I feel like he should be going after gronk, Reed, olsen and somewhere in the Kelce, Walker range. Throw Eifert in there somewhere, hes just hurt right now so i have no idea where people are valuing him in startups

 
massraider said:
It's never crazy to question drafting a below average talent in a good situation. 
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Agreed - which is why Fleener is a 6th round pick instead of a 4th round pick like Reed. Fleener's upside is basically what people are expecting from Reed - IMO that risk is what knocks Fleener down 2 full rounds (or 5, if you're like me and got him in the 9th round yesterday). 

 
massraider said:
It's never crazy to question drafting a below average talent in a good situation. 
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well obviously you already have an opinion about him, and Im not trying to make you like him, but this is a situation where prior history suggests he can succeed

maybe he is just bad, idk, guess ill find out the hard way in a few leagues

 
Pwingles said:
well obviously you already have an opinion about him, and Im not trying to make you like him, but this is a situation where prior history suggests he can succeed

maybe he is just bad, idk, guess ill find out the hard way in a few leagues
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Here's a fun tidbit from the FBG "rate my draft" tool: 

"Jason Wood defends his high ranking as follows: "Ben Watson, Josh Hill and Michael Hoomanawanui combined for 156 targets, 101 receptions, 1,021 yards and 11 touchdowns last season. BEN WATSON, JOSH HILL and MICHAEL HOOMANAWANUI. If you think Coby Fleener isn't capable of MONSTER numbers this year, you simply haven't paid attention to how Drew Brees values his tight ends."

I dunno about y'all, but I have Fleener rated as a better talent than Hill or Hoomanawanui (though not as fun a name to say)

 
Pwingles said:
well obviously you already have an opinion about him, and Im not trying to make you like him, but this is a situation where prior history suggests he can succeed

maybe he is just bad, idk, guess ill find out the hard way in a few leagues
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Everybody has an opinion about him.  It's not like everyone else saw that he went to New Orleans, went back and watched all his Indy games, and decided it was going to work out.  

I'm just of the opinion that he's not a particularly good tight end.  That's all my opinion is. I think he could be a good fantasy starter as well.  

He's in good situation, no doubt. However, there are some projections and expectations in here that I think should be reserved for players that are actually good.

There is also a weird thing in here where if you dare question Fleener this year, people get really tense. 

 
massraider said:
There is also a weird thing in here where if you dare question Fleener this year, people get really tense. 
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I don't see that at all. I see people high on him, and I see people who are cautiously optimistic. Then I see people who constantly trash him. I suspect the latter is that people invested in him in Indy and got burned - FFB owners hold a grudge like no other. 

What I see the most is cautious optimism. 

I guess you can interpret that any way you like, and since you don't like him you're projecting a bit. 

And by the way - Fleener is a starting TE in the NFL, so he might be "actually good".  Wait, was that me "getting really tense" because I disagreed with you? Hmm....

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I dunno about y'all, but I have Fleener rated as a better talent than Hill or Hoomanawanui (though not as fun a name to say)
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You just lost all credibility by comparing Fleener to the great Hoomanawanathingy.  Fleener couldn't hold his jock :)

I too have players that I won't draft because I have been burned by them in the past.   Eddie Lacy comes to mind and he just might have the year this year that everyone predicted for him last year but his value has gone down quite a bit and it is tough to pull the trigger on him.   he will probably go back being fat and out of shape if he gets another big contract so people will get burned by him again.  

I know Fleener hasn't shown the best of hands and has been a classic underachiever but he is in a better offense for TEs now.  

 
yoman said:
You just lost all credibility by comparing Fleener to the great Hoomanawanathingy.  Fleener couldn't hold his jock :)

I too have players that I won't draft because I have been burned by them in the past.   Eddie Lacy comes to mind and he just might have the year this year that everyone predicted for him last year but his value has gone down quite a bit and it is tough to pull the trigger on him.   he will probably go back being fat and out of shape if he gets another big contract so people will get burned by him again.  

I know Fleener hasn't shown the best of hands and has been a classic underachiever but he is in a better offense for TEs now.  
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rofl - my bad. 

Alshon Jeffery is my personal poison - when I played against him in a PPR league he had 18 catches in a game (my opponent also had Marshall for the nightmare game from hell that week) and then when I draft him as my WR2 in an early draft, he has a "slight hamstring strain" in the preseason that ruins his entire year. I'm still wondering if he had a complete leg amputation/replacement and the Bears just managed to keep it quiet.  :wall:

But yeah - Fleener could not have landed in a better place for a TE to get value just by being a TE. 

 
I'm worried about Josh Hill taking over for an underachieving Fleener, kinda like how the surprising Watson far outproduced the highly drafted Hill last year.

Remember where Hill was being drafted in the summer of 2015?

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Here's a fun tidbit from the FBG "rate my draft" tool: 

"Jason Wood defends his high ranking as follows: "Ben Watson, Josh Hill and Michael Hoomanawanui combined for 156 targets, 101 receptions, 1,021 yards and 11 touchdowns last season. BEN WATSON, JOSH HILL and MICHAEL HOOMANAWANUI. If you think Coby Fleener isn't capable of MONSTER numbers this year, you simply haven't paid attention to how Drew Brees values his tight ends."

I dunno about y'all, but I have Fleener rated as a better talent than Hill or Hoomanawanui (though not as fun a name to say)
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How he compares to Hill or Hoomanawanui isn't really relevant in that comparison.  Those guys were playing alongside Watson, not instead of him.  They'll still be there alongside Fleener.  It's not like NO is only going to throw passes to one TE next year.

The question is how he compares to Watson.  I'm cautiously optimistic that he's at least as good as him if not better, but I don't think that's necessarily a given.

 
Two opinions on this:

One, for me, I place a degree of trust in the Saints' front office.  If they rewarded this guy with a multi-year contract, they must have seen something.  Knowing that these next couple years are Brees' last chances, they clearly believe Fleener offers something.

That being said, I agree there's questions, but the value on this guy is pretty solid as these questions have tamped down the hype.  Got him at 8.1 last night in a 10 team snake draft...what more could you want?

 
massraider said:
Everybody has an opinion about him.  It's not like everyone else saw that he went to New Orleans, went back and watched all his Indy games, and decided it was going to work out.  

I'm just of the opinion that he's not a particularly good tight end.  That's all my opinion is. I think he could be a good fantasy starter as well.  

He's in good situation, no doubt. However, there are some projections and expectations in here that I think should be reserved for players that are actually good.

There is also a weird thing in here where if you dare question Fleener this year, people get really tense. 
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Not trying to come off as tense, we just disagree is all.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
How he compares to Hill or Hoomanawanui isn't really relevant in that comparison.  Those guys were playing alongside Watson, not instead of him.  They'll still be there alongside Fleener.  It's not like NO is only going to throw passes to one TE next year.

The question is how he compares to Watson.  I'm cautiously optimistic that he's at least as good as him if not better, but I don't think that's necessarily a given.
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I disagree - the apples to apples comparison is the targets and production.

those targets went to tight ends.

NOS doesn't run a lot of 2-TE sets, so it's highly relevant that Watson is gone and Fleener is taking over that role.

imo it's far less relevant how Fleener compares to Watson. What's most relevant when evaluating potential value is targets. 

The opportunity is clearly there for Fleener. The only question is what he does with it.

I think it's flawed to slice and dicing the player - that didn't work too well for those who invested heavily in Jimmy Graham in his 1st year in Seattle based on what he did in New Orleans. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I disagree - the apples to apples comparison is the targets and production.

those targets went to tight ends.

NOS doesn't run a lot of 2-TE sets, so it's highly relevant that Watson is gone and Fleener is taking over that role.

imo it's far less relevant how Fleener compares to Watson. What's most relevant when evaluating potential value is targets. 

The opportunity is clearly there for Fleener. The only question is what he does with it.

I think it's flawed to slice and dicing the player - that didn't work too well for those who invested heavily in Jimmy Graham in his 1st year in Seattle based on what he did in New Orleans. 
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I'm still not seeing how this makes any sense.  Obviously NO uses some 2TE sets, and lets their starting TE rest at times, otherwise those guys wouldn't have had any catches.  It's not like NO was using a tight end by committee approach last year.

Hill's numbers were the same last year with Watson there as they were the year before when Graham was there.  Their TE production was higher when Graham was there than when Watson was there.  It certainly scales at least somewhat with the quality of their starting TE, even if it is high either way.  If Fleener is as good as Watson Hill/Hoo will still account for some production, likely about the same amount as last year.  It's not like Fleener is going to get 100% of the TE targets and it's not like NO is going to throw that exact same amount to their TE if Fleener is a worse TE.  It's high relative to most teams, but it still is going to move around relative to the quality of player they have in there.  If Fleener is worse than Watson he'll likely end up with fewer targets and less production.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
I'm still not seeing how this makes any sense.  Obviously NO uses some 2TE sets, and lets their starting TE rest at times, otherwise those guys wouldn't have had any catches.  It's not like NO was using a tight end by committee approach last year.

Hill's numbers were the same last year with Watson there as they were the year before when Graham was there.  Their TE production was higher when Graham was there than when Watson was there.  It certainly scales at least somewhat with the quality of their starting TE, even if it is high either way.  If Fleener is as good as Watson Hill/Hoo will still account for some production, likely about the same amount as last year.  It's not like Fleener is going to get 100% of the TE targets and it's not like NO is going to throw that exact same amount to their TE if Fleener is a worse TE.  It's high relative to most teams, but it still is going to move around relative to the quality of player they have in there.  If Fleener is worse than Watson he'll likely end up with fewer targets and less production.
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Perhaps I phrased it poorly -I don't disagree. Fleener is not playing 100% of snaps. I didn't mean to insinuate that.

but the other 2 are not the "move" TEs - more the blocking TEs who get a catch here and there. 

Fleener's is in replacing Watson's targets.  That comes with great upside. And considering the Saints WR core of Cooks, Snead, Thomas and sometimes a RB, that leaves a safety on Fleener.

that would seem to be a substantial mismatch, and IMO Brees will take advantage of it early & often. 

Time will tell - IMO on volume alone Fleener has great upside. I don't get why you don't get that, but we'll have to agree to disagre and let the season prove one of us wrong I guess. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Perhaps I phrased it poorly -I don't disagree. Fleener is not playing 100% of snaps. I didn't mean to insinuate that.

but the other 2 are not the "move" TEs - more the blocking TEs who get a catch here and there. 

Fleener's is in replacing Watson's targets.  That comes with great upside. And considering the Saints WR core of Cooks, Snead, Thomas and sometimes a RB, that leaves a safety on Fleener.

that would seem to be a substantial mismatch, and IMO Brees will take advantage of it early & often. 

Time will tell - IMO on volume alone Fleener has great upside. I don't get why you don't get that, but we'll have to agree to disagre and let the season prove one of us wrong I guess. 
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I totally get it, that's why I have him on my team as my starting TE this year.  Like I said, I am cautiously optimistic that he's as good as Watson (and hence will have similar production) with a decent possibility that he's better (and hence will have more production).

My issue was with the quote that Fleener was better than Hill/Hoo.  Maybe I misunderstood what you were saying with that.  Their production or how they compare to Fleener isn't very relevant because Fleener isn't playing the same role as them anyway (the blocking TE getting occasional catches).  They're still going to get those.  My point was that how he compares to Watson, who's role he will directly be filling, is what is relevant.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
I totally get it, that's why I have him on my team as my starting TE this year.  Like I said, I am cautiously optimistic that he's as good as Watson (and hence will have similar production) with a decent possibility that he's better (and hence will have more production).

My issue was with the quote that Fleener was better than Hill/Hoo.  Maybe I misunderstood what you were saying with that.  Their production or how they compare to Fleener isn't very relevant because Fleener isn't playing the same role as them anyway (the blocking TE getting occasional catches).  They're still going to get those.  My point was that how he compares to Watson, who's role he will directly be filling, is what is relevant.
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Gotcha - the hill/Who comment was me being a little sarcastic based on the FBG quote.

Yoman caught that, apologies it wasn't too clear. 

Since I have a share of Fleener as well let's hope he hits his ceiling and that his floor isn't too bad either.

with the saints D still not being great, I expect shootouts - on volume potential alone Fleener is an exciting FFB player. 

curious what your O/U is on TDs? 

 
What are Fleener owners doing after such a disappointing Week 1?

We knew Cooks would get his, but it seems Brees is happy looking for Snead and the rookie Thomas over Fleener, even though Brees has always been a TE whisperer.

 
Won't lie, I'm kind of concerned. The Saints looked like they can be plenty efficient without a TE. I tend to be more patient than most so I'll give a few more weeks, but I am definitely starting to lightly graze thru the WW gathering ideas.

 
Something told me to play Macdonald over Fleener this week.  Unfortunately I didn't.  Fleener pooped the bed!  At least he plays the Giants next week.  I'll put him in again.

 
It was a coin flip for me between Fleener and D.Allen in a non-PPR... I lost the coin flip, and it will almost certainly cost me the win (unless the Rams D goes off in a big way, Ds score more than usual in this league).

Probably only give it 1-2 more weeks to see something promising.

 
Lott's Fingertip said:
It was a coin flip for me between Fleener and D.Allen in a non-PPR... I lost the coin flip, and it will almost certainly cost me the win (unless the Rams D goes off in a big way, Ds score more than usual in this league).

Probably only give it 1-2 more weeks to see something promising.
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I sat Allen also for Fleener, and Ebron for Fleener in another league.  

The Saints are setting us up for a 3 TD day for Fleener when everybody benches him.

 
NO ran some really different looks in the RZ than I wouldve expected. No real opportunities for Ingram or Fleener in there. Brees looked like he was too happy to pick on their weak secondary to care about anything else. Fleener got me too this week. Was a pretty poor week for most starting TE after the top 2-3 (reed hasnt played yet tho), im not sure of the quality of the 3 targets he didnt get, but 4 total targets isnt super great anyway. Hopefully that picks up a bit going forward

 
Forget all this talk about the playbook and smarts and whatever. Folks it doesn't matter if Fleener is in the script (he is). It's all up to Brees. If Brees connects with Fleener early they're on their way. If Fleener doesn't catch the ball or isn't on the right place or does something off for wrong, he won't have Brees' trust. Brees almost always shows faith in his receivers by going right back to them if they screw up, but he rarely does it twice. Brees does not waste time. Whatever early couple targets Fleener gets he has to deliver on, it's just that simple. Earn Brees' trust and he's gold. If he really wants Brees to fall in love he will catch the ball over the middle like Jimmy did breaking safeties like twigs. 

 
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Also for what it's worth, it seemed the game plan was to attack OAK on the outside; and it worked pretty well.  Josh Hill got banged up, and this week they have the NYG who had Witten with like 15 targets last week (yah, it was Dak, but still).  With a possible 90-100 point over/under, I'm giving him another roll this week. 

 
Welp, gave up 21 points rolling out Fleener again and leaving Bennett on the bench....bought into the jazz about the Giants being terrible against TEs and the game being a probable shootout.

Gonna go after Pitta, my problem now is what to do with Fleener. I feel like if I drop him outright he and Brees will start gelling around week 6 and I'll be kicking myself all year.

On the other hand, I really don't have room for 3 TEs on the roster.

 
I'd like to see the tape on those 8 targets before proclaiming him dead.  But yeah, the first two weeks do not inspire confidence. 

 
Skoo said:
Welp, gave up 21 points rolling out Fleener again and leaving Bennett on the bench....bought into the jazz about the Giants being terrible against TEs and the game being a probable shootout.

Gonna go after Pitta, my problem now is what to do with Fleener. I feel like if I drop him outright he and Brees will start gelling around week 6 and I'll be kicking myself all year.

On the other hand, I really don't have room for 3 TEs on the roster.
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I'm in the same boat.

 
FF Ninja said:
Did not watch the game, but 8 targets makes me want to buy low.
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If you can hide him on your bench he'll likely have a game that will make him a wanted trade chip at some point.

Watched the game and he looked like the old Fleener from Indy.  Two flat out drops on potentially big plays.

I steered clear of him at the draft feeling he'd break my heart more than help me win.  Nothing I saw Sunday changed that.

 
Feeling pretty fortunate Witten was there in the 3rd to last round of the draft that I got a "bargain" on Fleener in the 10th.  

I still hold out hope - 8 targets is good enough volume to be a productive FFB TE - i didn't see the game so it's hard to say how many were catchable balls, but if the targets stay consistent there is still a chance that he starts to put it together. It's still just 2 games into the season. 

I'll watch him on my bench - I started Witten this week and he was marginally better.  I'm still holding on Fleener until he stops getting 8 targets in a game. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Feeling pretty fortunate Witten was there in the 3rd to last round of the draft that I got a "bargain" on Fleener in the 10th.  

I still hold out hope - 8 targets is good enough volume to be a productive FFB TE - i didn't see the game so it's hard to say how many were catchable balls, but if the targets stay consistent there is still a chance that he starts to put it together. It's still just 2 games into the season. 

I'll watch him on my bench - I started Witten this week and he was marginally better.  I'm still holding on Fleener until he stops getting 8 targets in a game. 
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I have the same fallback with Witten.  Hopefully Fleener is a hold rather than a drop.. but he may be quickly shifting from one to the other.

 
One thing I notice about Fleener since he came into the league is that when he turns his head to look for the ball he slows down a lot his route speed ... more than most players. Some might say he slows down to adjust to the ball, and he does do that well, but I notice he slows down before he even locates the ball most times. I think that is messing up the timing with Brees. Either Brees has to make an adjustment or even better, Fleener needs to solve this problem. It's not just when he is turning his body looking for the ball, although that is extreme slowness, but even when his route is running fairly straight line and he needs to just turn his head he slows down a lot when he looks back for the ball.

It's like his brain slows down his body when he attempts to locate the ball. He is adept at catching and especially routes where he stops and has to make a tough catch. Even on his fly/seam routes with Indy/Stanford he usually runs all out, then slows down to make the catch, and many times he has this hitch in his step, then pulls away from defender after he makes the catch with his great speed. Last week  it looked like he slowed down and it cost him a few catches as Brees "overthrew" him.

His best routes are crossing routes. He seems to slow down the least on those as he already has an eye on the ball without having to turn his head to locate it. If you look at the routes he has run for the Saint's they have not run many of these type routes. The last route he ran vs NYG was a crossing route and Brees hit him in stride. His other catch was also perpendicular to the field, caught in the flat.

Jimmy Graham wasn't as fast as Fleener, but his route speed was more consistent and easier to calculate for Brees. The only time Graham slowed his route was to adjust to the ball.

 
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