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Andrew Luck..... Love fest inside.... (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Carter_Can_Fly
- Start date
Because he says he's a far cry from where he wants to be and he wasn't 100% as of two weeks ago. Link
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cloppbeast
Footballguy
TripleThreat
Footballguy
From MMQB
1. Loved what we saw from Andrew Luck on Saturday against the Niners, even if his arm might not be all the way back. Officially, he wound up 8-of-10 for 90 yards and a touchdown. But I wanted to go a little deeper, so I hit up an exec from an AFC team who got a good look at him in the game. He texted, “On tape, haven’t seen him really rip it and there are times he pushes it. Accuracy, touch, passing instincts all pluses, like always. Guessing he still may be on a pitch count and building arm strength in practice and games. Not hesitant at all physically. Missed OTAs and still working his way back.” And a Niners staffer I talked to echoed that, saying coming back from surgery and into a new system will take a little bit, and may be a reason why he’s not throwing as much heat now, but pointed to a laser on a third-and-9 to T.Y. Hilton early in the first quarter as proof that Luck can still crank it up when he needs to. My feeling? The Colts have seen what they’ve needed to ahead of Sept. 9.
1. Loved what we saw from Andrew Luck on Saturday against the Niners, even if his arm might not be all the way back. Officially, he wound up 8-of-10 for 90 yards and a touchdown. But I wanted to go a little deeper, so I hit up an exec from an AFC team who got a good look at him in the game. He texted, “On tape, haven’t seen him really rip it and there are times he pushes it. Accuracy, touch, passing instincts all pluses, like always. Guessing he still may be on a pitch count and building arm strength in practice and games. Not hesitant at all physically. Missed OTAs and still working his way back.” And a Niners staffer I talked to echoed that, saying coming back from surgery and into a new system will take a little bit, and may be a reason why he’s not throwing as much heat now, but pointed to a laser on a third-and-9 to T.Y. Hilton early in the first quarter as proof that Luck can still crank it up when he needs to. My feeling? The Colts have seen what they’ve needed to ahead of Sept. 9.
Team Smokin'
Footballguy
If we do go Luck late into the draft then we'll come back very soon with a capable QB #2 like a Mahomes, Goff, or Alex Smith. If Luck flames out we're still in the game. If Luck produces like a QB #1 then all good. Targeting TY in the 3rd as well. Slightly non-contrarian.
TripleThreat
Footballguy
I picked him up in the 13th of a ten team after 2 teams had taken their second QB. He’s my only QB and for the moment I feel really good about the risk/reward.
I picked Wentz off the wire last year... There will always be someone available.
I picked Wentz off the wire last year... There will always be someone available.
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Insoxicated
There is literally zero scenario where i can envision luck landing as a top 3 QB this year even if he is somehow magically 100% (which I don’t think he is), and doesn’t have rust (which I think he does). He has one WR and a middling Line.
Youre forced to pay for much of Luck’s upside, and many of us think you’re not going to get what you pay for.
Gun to my head, I see Luck landing somewhere between QB12 and QB18.
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ponchsox
Footballguy
I’m concerned about his lack if weapons. After T.Y. and Doyle/Ebron they are dreadful. If Luck plays all 16 I still think he sneaks into the top 10 towards the end. I still would not feel comfortable with him as my QB1. He’s more of a late round QB2 flier.
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
Is it really any different from 2016 when Luck had 4200 yards and 31 TDs in 15 games? Hilton was the #1. Moncrief got hurt in and only played 9 games- only had 307 yards. Dwayne Allen and Jack Doyle combined for 11 TDs. As bad as Ebron is, he's not worse than Allen. Gore was the RB. They have never been able to give Luck weapons.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
Right now, QB2 is a guy whose played 6+ career games coming off an ACL injury. Why is Luck regaining form (with an improved OL but little running game) so implausible?
Chaka
Footballguy
Of course that could happen and I agree that enough pieces are on the roster that if absolutely everything falls into place it could happen.
But I also agree with @[icon] that there are a ton of things that have to fall exactly in place for that to happen. So I bake that into my draft board.
Chaka
Footballguy
Because people are overdrafting Watson and he didn't have an injury to his throwing shoulder that kept him out for over a full season.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Just because people are wildly over-drafting Watson doesn't really mean anything as it relates to Luck. Watson's ADP and Watson's ranking by experts is one of the widest gaps I can recall.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Luck's injury is more worrisome but he's also had a very long time to recovery. Luck has something Watson doesn't: sustained fantasy success. Luck has played 70 NFL games and has a 16 game average of 4300 and 30, with 300 and 3 on the ground. Their is injury risk, but he has a very high ceiling.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
If the rankings are that fluid...would seem to me that there is plenty of opportunity fo someone to ascend to QB2-3 territory. Your stance was that you couldn’t envision any scenario where that could be Luck.
But if in fact he’s healthy...he’s been able to perform at that level before.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
All true but injuries don't cause players to miss over a full season unless they're really bad. He literally had not thrown a pass in game action since January first 2017. Some would argue that he still hasn't.
I am surprised that Watson is good to go but he is. People shouldn't expect him to be back to his old self for awhile but it is reasonable to expect that he will be because we understand the nature of his common injury. Luck's injury is simply not common enough for us to understand the implications and possible outcomes.
He definitely has high upside but his level of uncertainty is unusual and difficult to predict.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
Sometimes I wonder if the folks who start tuning into the NFL/FF about now have an advantage in a situation like this. 2 months ago, in the dead part of the NFL season...there was this consensus ‘no way I’m touching Luck’ vibe. Those paying attention were worried that he wasn’t throwing ‘The Duke’ yet.
Yet here we are two months later and in two of his three appearances, he’s shown pretty darn good. But we remember that two months ago there was all this concern. I actually understand Luck saying he’s not close to 100% because in his mind, he won’t feel truly 100% until he’s doing this during the regular season. And maybe he is a different QB post injury than he was prior. Maybe his fastball isn’t mid 90’s, but low 90’s. But he was never a ‘flamethrower’ per se. He was special because he knew how to pitch. That part of him was never injured.
Chaka
Footballguy
I am not certain you have the right read on Luck as a QB. He is not a Peyton Manning cerebral QB who doesn't need a fastball to be elite. He's a career sub 60% passer who does a good enough job of taking care of the ball and has good mobility to get him out of trouble. He still has time to morph into the high percentage passer that Manning was but I think he has absolutely been a guy who has relied on his arm talent to make up for questionable decision making. That may not fly now and his ability to change his playing style comes comes into question now.
I think his draft stock inflates people's perception of him as a QB.
CalBear
Footballguy
Luck's fantasy success has been a function of extreme workload; he's #2 among active QBs in pass attempts per game, and in the middle to bottom of most rate statistics. (#13 in yards/attempt, #24 in completion %, #12 in interception %). Unless he performs much better per attempt than he has in the past, or throws it 600+ times again, he's not going to finish near the top in fantasy.
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ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
Peyton Manning in 2013 didn't have great arm strength. He still threw for 55 TD's. Arm strength isn't everything for a QB. As long as Luck is healthy he's a top 5 NFL and fantasy QB without a doubt.
If you could guarantee me Luck plays 16 games i'd be absolutely shocked if he doesn't end the season as a top 5 fantasy QB.
If you could guarantee me Luck plays 16 games i'd be absolutely shocked if he doesn't end the season as a top 5 fantasy QB.
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Insoxicated
You mean aside from the major shoulder surgery rife with setbacks causing him to be away from the game for 20 months, and TY hitting 29 years old (downslope) instead of 27 (late prime)?
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Insoxicated
The “return to sport” data for shoulder surgery on atheletes who throw a ball for a living is not on his side. It’s possible he’s gone from “Cant throw a football for 20 months” right back to his old self in a matter of a month or so... but you’ll have to forgive my skepticism.
IMO we have a rusty Luck who hasn’t seen real game action in an extended period, who by his own admission isn’t 100% and likely won’t be in the immediate future (if ever), throwing to an WR1 entering the twilight of his career followed by a middling to poor set of receiving targets. I’m also guessing we see a less mobile Luck by design, at least initially.
If I were doing a bell curve and assuming he plays a full 16 games (far from a sure thing), I’d say we are looking at Downside: QB16 / Median: QB10 / Upside: QB6. If we assume there is some risk of setback that inhibits performance or worse yet gets him shut down for a period of time... then that slides downward.
None of us know for certain, and we will see as the season unfolds. If he comes out as the Luck of old after a few games, I’ll be the first one back in here admitting I was overly skeptical and will congratulate him on getting back to his old self.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
What weapons did he have in the past? How was his o-line in the past? Worse than middling?
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TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
He may be a career sub 60% passer, but in 2016 that number had moved up to 63.5%. He’s only sub 60 because his rookie year still represents a decent portion of his career. Manning wasn’t hyper accurate during the first stage of his career either and thru 5 seasons had a 3.5% INT rate to Luck’s 2.6%. They QB’ed in different eras, but we remember late stage Peyton who was significantly more efficient and explosive. And obviously Peyton’s injury came later in his career.
What I’d also argue if we’re using Manning has the comparison point is that Manning’s injury was significantly more worrisome. If I’m not mistaken, he never completely rid himself of some ‘numbness?’.
But I brought this up in another thread...we don’t have to be so linear in our comparisons. What I know about Luck is that he’s taken pretty poor rosters to the playoffs. No moment seems ‘too big’ for him. The cerebral aspect of the game? Luck still isn’t a finished product. But he doesn’t panic and he’s still very good in that area. Even in his ‘bad’ 2015 season, he was on pace to throw for 4300 yards (450 rushing too) and 34 TD’s (albeit with 27 INT’s). I actually think people don’t realize how good he was. He’s the type of guy who ‘finds a way’ to maximize the tools he has. I’ll bet on that.
massraider
Footballguy
I don't like him coming off an injury that is sort of unprecedented, in terms of the re-injury, long recovery time, etc.
I don't like his weapons. Heck, I don't like his weapons if this was a COLLEGE team.
Plays the Texans and Jags twice.
Rather just have Stafford in same area.
I don't like his weapons. Heck, I don't like his weapons if this was a COLLEGE team.
Plays the Texans and Jags twice.
Rather just have Stafford in same area.
Chaka
Footballguy
Luck is a 60.8% passer in 2024 attempts since his rookie year. Manning jumped from 56.7% in his rookie year to 62.1% and didn't drop below that for 16 years. He was above 65% for 12 of those seasons. His % increased every season for the first seven years of his career to a high water mark of 67.6%. That is the kind of accuracy you need to be successful without a 98mph fastball.
I use Manning as a comparison not because he has a similar game to Luck, he didn't but because it is the natural comparison everyone makes as Luck was Manning's immediate successor.
Luck still has a lot to prove as a QB.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
I have gone back and forth on Luck for the last couple of weeks but have made the final decision to stay away. His arm is not quite back. His WRs are not good. The running game is not great making defenses respect a balanced attack. And, there are plenty of other QBs available.
Chaka
Footballguy
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Insoxicated
Well, The one year everyone here is secretly pining for (4700/40) whether they’ll admit it or not, he had:
Ty Hilton 82 catches for 1385yds
Reggie Wayne 64/779
Colby Fleener 51/774
plus Hakeem Nicks, Ahmad Bradshaw, Donte Moncreif, Trent Richardson... by all counts a VERY solid core of receiving options. Outside a 29yo TY Hilton he’s got nothing close to that, now.
Anyone that thinks he has anything near that now and wants to use that season as a factor in comparison is not just drinking the kool aid, they’re drowning in it.
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habsfan
Footballguy
Very polarizing player/situation. My league was very "bearish" on Indy's whole offense. I stayed away from Luck but ended up with Hilton and Mack at what I'm trying to view as "Brissett" level value. We all know that when a player is falling there's a point at which he becomes a value but I find it extremely difficult to determine when that is. Often once all the games are played you can still find yourself having paid too much...
Chaka
Footballguy
You got Wayne & Hilton's numbers backwards. But, yes I don't see the same supporting talent as 2014.
Still I like Hilton as a volume play even if it is a gamble that Luck can hit him on deep balls.
ponchsox
Footballguy
Which is why I hate him as a QB1 due to the busy/injury risk but if you can get him late he’s worth the potential as a high-upside QB2. The upside means he could outscore your QB1 and be a top option if you waited on QB.The “return to sport” data for shoulder surgery on atheletes who throw a ball for a living is not on his side. It’s possible he’s gone from “Cant throw a football for 20 months” right back to his old self in a matter of a month or so... but you’ll have to forgive my skepticism.
IMO we have a rusty Luck who hasn’t seen real game action in an extended period, who by his own admission isn’t 100% and likely won’t be in the immediate future (if ever), throwing to an WR1 entering the twilight of his career followed by a middling to poor set of receiving targets. I’m also guessing we see a less mobile Luck by design, at least initially.
If I were doing a bell curve and assuming he plays a full 16 games (far from a sure thing), I’d say we are looking at Downside: QB16 / Median: QB10 / Upside: QB6. If we assume there is some risk of setback that inhibits performance or worse yet gets him shut down for a period of time... then that slides downward.
None of us know for certain, and we will see as the season unfolds. If he comes out as the Luck of old after a few games, I’ll be the first one back in here admitting I was overly skeptical and will congratulate him on getting back to his old self.
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cloppbeast
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I don't own him and doubt I'd draft him due to his shoulder but he has a better o-line now and at least equal weapons. You said if you knew he was 100% healthy you wouldn't trust him due to his weapons and poor o-line.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
Tough crowd. Since his rookie year, his 16 game averages are:
379.6 Completions
600.0 Attempts
60.8% Completion Rate
7.26 YPA
4,356.8 Passing Yards
32.3 TD's
14.8 INT's
66.4 Rushing Attempts
351.8 Rushing Yards
2.7 TD's.
Staying on the field is his bug-a-boo for sure, but when he's been on it...I think he's played pretty good, no?
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Insoxicated
Please go ahead and provide the “at least as good” comparisons on this year’s team:
26YO TY Hilton = 29YO TY Hilton
Reggie Wayne = ?
Colby Fleener = ?
Hakeem Nicks = ?
Donte Moncreif = ?
Ahmad Bradshaw = ?
Trent Richardson = ?
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Insoxicated
I’m just being realistic about his weapons. I’m not saying TY isn’t a great receiver anymore... but is anyone here not of the opinion that he’s hitting the downslope of his career now that he’s turning 29?
Even assuming 29yo TY hasn’t lost anything from 26yo TY, the other options just aren’t there.
Unfortunately this is the absolute worst time to debate a player. You generally have people who are extremely emotionally invested in someone having just drafted them… And yet you are a week or two away from actually seeing any game data that can provide real feedback on how good the players. In Luck’s extreme case, you’re approaching two years without any viable data.
There’s not much sense in going back-and-forth… I’ve stated my case pretty clearly and throwing up studies on return to sport for shoulder surgery on throwing Atheletes.
I was called crazy for my stance back once 2017 too. At least he’s finally been able to throw a football over the last few weeks. I sincerely hope in four or five weeks I can come in here and say that Luck is his old self and I was wrong about him.
Good luck to those who invested in him this season.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
26YO TY Hilton = 29 YO TY Hilton (yes they are equal - 29 is still the prime of a WRs career)Please go ahead and provide the “at least as good” comparisons on this year’s team:
26YO TY Hilton = 29YO TY Hilton
Reggie Wayne = ?
Colby Fleener = ?
Hakeem Nicks = ?
Donte Moncreif = ?
Ahmad Bradshaw = ?
Trent Richardson = ?
Reggie Wayne = (at worst) Ryan Grant (Reggie Wayne was in his last year and washed up at 35 years old)
Colby Fleener < Eric Ebron (Fleener is/was a bum)
Hakeem Nicks <<< Jack Doyle (Nicks was toast at that point he had 38 catches at 10.7 ypc and had one more season with 7 receptions before "retiring")
Donte Moncreif = Daurice Fountain (both rookies, I'll give a slight edge to Moncreif as he was 3rd round pick v. 5th)
Ahmad Bradshaw >> (but maybe not?) Marlon Mack, Nyheim Hines
Trent Richardson < Jordan Wilkens, Christine Michael Robert Turbin (Richardson was an absolute bust at that point)
And the O-line is much better now.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Well whatever about everything else, it's silly to downgrade any at all because TY is all of the sudden 29. How much are you down grading Ben since AB is 29?I’m just being realistic about his weapons. I’m not saying TY isn’t a great receiver anymore... but is anyone here not of the opinion that he’s hitting the downslope of his career now that he’s turning 29?
Even assuming 29yo TY hasn’t lost anything from 26yo TY, the other options just aren’t there.
Unfortunately this is the absolute worst time to debate a player. You generally have people who are extremely emotionally invested in someone having just drafted them… And yet you are a week or two away from actually seeing any game data that can provide real feedback on how good the players. In Luck’s extreme case, you’re approaching two years without any viable data.
There’s not much sense in going back-and-forth… I’ve stated my case pretty clearly and throwing up studies on return to sport for shoulder surgery on throwing Atheletes.
I was called crazy for my stance back once 2017 too. At least he’s finally been able to throw a football over the last few weeks. I sincerely hope in four or five weeks I can come in here and say that Luck is his old self and I was wrong about him.
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