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Andrew Luck..... Love fest inside.... (3 Viewers)

Ya the Pats will win, but Indy’s D is like second in the league in sacks I think and the Pats O line is very mediocre in pass protection.

Brady is gonna get sacked multiple times and it really rattle him you can tell.  It’s fun to watch if you hate the Patriots, which as a Baltimore fan I do.
I would love to see it, but again... knock me over with a feather if the outcomes isn't something like NEP 45, IND 17 (14 of which come in 4th QTR).

 
I would love to see it, but again... knock me over with a feather if the outcomes isn't something like NEP 45, IND 17 (14 of which come in 4th QTR).
Think we misunderstood each other.  I’m just saying the Indy D line is going to pressure Brady and get some sacks.

I would give Indy a shot in this game if they played it Sunday, but they’re missing so many crucial pieces tonight it’s just not happening.  

Tonight: 

NE 31 - Ind 17

But played Sunday I’d put the Colts a TD higher.  Perfect example of why Thursday games are a dumb idea.

 
I want to play him but I'll roll with Bortles. All these missing parts and with what the Pats did to Miami least week and I'm wondering if Indy gets anything beyond ten points. 

 
365 yards and 3 TDs, 2 INTs but one wasn't on him, it was on Pascal.

Given that they had so few players healthy tonight, and missing both TY and Doyle, and throwing bombs to Eric Swoop and Marcus Johnson, that's kinda amazing.

Well played sir.

 
365 yards and 3 TDs, 2 INTs but one wasn't on him, it was on Pascal.

Given that they had so few players healthy tonight, and missing both TY and Doyle, and throwing bombs to Eric Swoop and Marcus Johnson, that's kinda amazing.

Well played sir.
Gotta love passing from the half yard line there. Their D sucks and no running game, if he holds up he could be a strong play rest of year. 

 
Started Luck over Alex Smith, very happy with the results regardless of what Smith does now.  Hats off to you Capt. Luck for your performance tonight

 
Gotta love passing from the half yard line there. Their D sucks and no running game, if he holds up he could be a strong play rest of year. 
He made that throw look so easy, didn't he?  Nice play call. Big night for Ebron, wishing I had drafted him late. Luck looked for him all night.  Even on the series before, the incomplete 4th down throw was for Ebron in traffic.

 
Man such a waste of this guy on this team.  Unreal that he's been in the league this long and is still devoid of any help.  So many drops out there tonight.  Long passes.  TDs.  Balls that popped up into INTs.

From a fantasy standpoint I'd still really like to see him start running again, but the garbage time passing will continue to be kind to him.

 
I have a feeling that he somehow throws for 350-3 tonight but I don’t have the guts to start him.
Nice.

38-59 365 yds 3 TDs 2 INTs and could have been much better if the Colts receivers hadn't dropped about 10 balls. Particularly thinking of that bomb he threw to (I think) Rogers and dropped it right in between his numbers in stride, should have been an easy TD.

 
Nice.

38-59 365 yds 3 TDs 2 INTs and could have been much better if the Colts receivers hadn't dropped about 10 balls. Particularly thinking of that bomb he threw to (I think) Rogers and dropped it right in between his numbers in stride, should have been an easy TD.
Ha...thanks. Wish I would've have convinced myself to play over Mahomes who I think comes back to earth vs. Jacksonville. 

 
Ha...thanks. Wish I would've have convinced myself to play over Mahomes who I think comes back to earth vs. Jacksonville. 
I played him over Wentz. Figured from the week before that if he was doing well enough that the coaching staff let him sling it 62 times, he must have their confidence. He could have had 400 and 4 easily if it weren't for the drops. Once Hilton and Doyle (and maybe even Mack) come back, I could see him getting back to the top tier of must start every week. 

 
It was damn nice to see the stat line for him this week. I didn’t get a chance to watch the game but I’ll be watching in the next couple days. 

A couple concerns I have:

1) Just as Luck was trying to open up his arm for longer throws, his target of choice injures his hamstring... NOT the type of soft tissue injury you want to see on an aging WR. Early word is he’s missing Thursday in New England at the least.

2) his completion percentage was the 2nd worst performance this year (64.5%). This was purely a volume play. Does anyone in here expect Luck to maintain a 995 passing attempt pace this season? Get your Hands up where everyone can see ‘em and get you on record! 

3) He’s still not running. That used to be a nice boost to his value. Is it fear of taking a hit on his shoulder? If so...

4) He took 4 sacks. That’s not good. With the colts having no running game to speak of, and a poor offensive line... expect more defenses to focus on the pass... which likely means more blitzing and more sacks. Curious to see his numbers against the blitz this year. IIRC he used to be great. 

I will say his YPA was solid in face of his poor compiletion percentage. No doubt attributable to an increased ADOT. I’ll be curious to see Hilton’s status/effectiveness going forward as that would be a pretty devastating blow to Luck’s comeback. 

It was a refreshing statline albeit with an unsustainable path to maintaining it. I’ll refrain from judging his actual performance until I’ve seen the game.

Either way... anyone thinking this is the new normal for Luck is far more optimistic than I, at least until he improves his efficiency.

As it stands he’s now QB11 just ahead of my projected range. I anticipate some regression, but we shall see! :popcorn: :D  


He's QB 3 now.

Granted, Brees would be ahead of him except for the bye.

Still . . .

 
What a brutal schedule Luck and the Clods have the next few weeks.  Starting against Buffalo this week, they face the following top passing defenses:

Buffalo  #3

@ Oakland #23 (only good game)

BYE

JAX #6

TEN #5

MIA #8

@ JAX #6

 
His stats come from high volume but his efficiency is down. Points are points I guess. Although ROS the Colts could have more normal pass attempts.

 
They just got Marlon Mack back. He's averaging 5.6 yards per carry. Luck is averaging 5.62 ANY/A.
Also the coach has said something about passing less. But before the Jets game and another 50 attempts.  :shrug:

 
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He's QB 3 now.

Granted, Brees would be ahead of him except for the bye.

Still . . .
He is and I’m happy to see owners getting rewarded. I’m not sure I’d be celebrating just yet...

1) I’m not so sure he’s as “back” as his fantasy stats indicate. Metrics like ADOT seem to indicate he can’t consistently utilize his deep ball yet / any longer. 

2) His number are PURELY volume driven. This is like Kamara going from 35pts a game via 20 carries of 7ypc, having an Achilles injury, then coming back to 30pts a game due to 40 carries of 3ypc. Sure... he’s still getting you points but is that historical volume sustainable on a rehabilitating shoulder, while the team is losing a LOT. 

3) The schedule gets much tougher from here. 

For me, Luck would be a sell high... I’m not sold yet. Too many red flags. I may be in the minority on that. I’m okay with that. I don’t own him in any leagues now so I thankfully don’t have to make that decision. 

Good luck to all owners from here though! 

 
He is and I’m happy to see owners getting rewarded. I’m not sure I’d be celebrating just yet...

1) I’m not so sure he’s as “back” as his fantasy stats indicate. Metrics like ADOT seem to indicate he can’t consistently utilize his deep ball yet / any longer. 

2) His number are PURELY volume driven. This is like Kamara going from 35pts a game via 20 carries of 7ypc, having an Achilles injury, then coming back to 30pts a game due to 40 carries of 3ypc. Sure... he’s still getting you points but is that historical volume sustainable on a rehabilitating shoulder, while the team is losing a LOT. 

3) The schedule gets much tougher from here. 

For me, Luck would be a sell high... I’m not sold yet. Too many red flags. I may be in the minority on that. I’m okay with that. I don’t own him in any leagues now so I thankfully don’t have to make that decision. 

Good luck to all owners from here though! 
I agree with all of this and have tried to cash out. I haven't gotten any takers willing to pay for his production thus far. I think the hail-mary attempt from Brissett put a damper on his value. Despite concerns about his arm strength, (just to play devil's advocate) the attributes which made him the #1 overall still remain: pocket presence, reading the field, anticipation, the will of the lion, ect. 

Nobody likes a volume play since it tends to even out. In this case, it might not. I could see the Colts running the ball more as long as they can improve or decide to stick to it, but I wouldn't count on it. I do count on the defense continuing to suck though. The garbage time points Luck gets, a testament to his resolve, should be in play ROS. You brought up the schedule, which plays right into game scripted pass attempts. So maybe not the extreme 50 att/game, but still a lot.

And he could have a healthy T.Y. for the remainder.

I think qb6-8 is reasonable ros.

 
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He is and I’m happy to see owners getting rewarded. I’m not sure I’d be celebrating just yet...

3) The schedule gets much tougher from here. 

For me, Luck would be a sell high... I’m not sold yet. Too many red flags. I may be in the minority on that. I’m okay with that. I don’t own him in any leagues now so I thankfully don’t have to make that decision. 

Good luck to all owners from here though! 


You can't keep a good man down, even against a tough defense.

 
Using fantasy points per week to account for byes, Luck’s QB5 in my league so far despite having to earn his fantasy points in some tough matchups after being in warm up mode when the season started.  After the cobwebs wore off weeks 1-3ish when he was throwing all those short yardage passes he has more or less matched the pace of the 2014 season when he finished QB1 overall.

The lack of buzz around Luck’s season should end if he torches Jacksonville this week like I think he will. In hindsight his week 7 matchup against Buffalo was much worse as far as fantasy points allowed to QBs but it just didn’t matter for Lucks fantasy production.

Half of the fantasy points the Bills D has allowed to QBs over the past 4 weeks were scored by Brady, Watson and Trubisky combined.  The other half were scored by Luck in that week 7 game.

As far as the matchup this week, the Jacksonville hot start has worn off.  Their defense lost its pass rush over the offseason and they’ll be facing an O-line that is finally healthy and hasn’t allowed Luck to take a sack in like 4 or 5 games.  3 of the last 4 QBs to face the Jags have scored at least 20 fantasy points, 2 of the last 3 have scored 28 or more.

I got spooked when he came out of the gate slow and watched several nice performances I could have used disappear on my bench.  Not happening this week.

 
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He is and I’m happy to see owners getting rewarded. I’m not sure I’d be celebrating just yet...

1) I’m not so sure he’s as “back” as his fantasy stats indicate. Metrics like ADOT seem to indicate he can’t consistently utilize his deep ball yet / any longer. 

2) His number are PURELY volume driven. This is like Kamara going from 35pts a game via 20 carries of 7ypc, having an Achilles injury, then coming back to 30pts a game due to 40 carries of 3ypc. Sure... he’s still getting you points but is that historical volume sustainable on a rehabilitating shoulder, while the team is losing a LOT. 

3) The schedule gets much tougher from here. 

For me, Luck would be a sell high... I’m not sold yet. Too many red flags. I may be in the minority on that. I’m okay with that. I don’t own him in any leagues now so I thankfully don’t have to make that decision. 

Good luck to all owners from here though! 
If Luck crushes JAX this weekend, it will change everything in my mind. I'm considering trading for him, but hate the schedule I see currently:

* JAX, TN, MIA, @JAX, @HOU, DAL, NYG

Will also be interesting to see the impact of the running game with M. Mack and possibly a more balanced attack. 

If what I see and read about Indy's offensive line being a dominant force, the Indy offense...both passing and rushing...could roll.

Think this weekend will be key.

 
At this point I’m rostering two QBs to keep Trubisky away from the guy I’m about to pass for second place who’s starting Stafford (otherwise he’s stacked).

Luck’s 25-30 pt floor regardless of matchup is pretty rare for a fantasy QB and that’s why Im such a big fan right now.  My guess is that it’s thanks to the Colts high TD per drive percentage (25%ish) and their reliance on more passing in _ and goal situations than most teams.

Very happy with 29 points today, just imagine what it could have looked like if the Colts offense had actually shown up in the second half.

 
2nd half was weird for sure given how good they looked in the first. Jags came out start of 3rd and ran a 17 play drive eating a ton of clock. Colts had a holding penalty and went three and out their first 3rd qtr Drive.  That was really all they got in the 3rd.

Lucks INT in the 4th should have been a huge gain but it was a bad drop/tip by Mo Alie-Cox.

They turtled up a bit rest of the 4th with short drives and ineffective running.

Luck has looked great and no reason to see it stop as the line continues to improve. 

 
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If Luck crushes JAX this weekend, it will change everything in my mind. I'm considering trading for him, but hate the schedule I see currently:

* JAX, TN, MIA, @JAX, @HOU, DAL, NYG

Will also be interesting to see the impact of the running game with M. Mack and possibly a more balanced attack. 

If what I see and read about Indy's offensive line being a dominant force, the Indy offense...both passing and rushing...could roll.

Think this weekend will be key.
There's your answer.

Matchup proof. He's playing the best football of his career. Obviously he and Reich seem to be a great match. It's crazy how they scheme to get their TEs so wide open.

 
What a brutal schedule Luck and the Clods have the next few weeks.  Starting against Buffalo this week, they face the following top passing defenses:

Buffalo  #3

@ Oakland #23 (only good game)

BYE

JAX #6

TEN #5

MIA #8

@ JAX #6
So much for my fears of "brutal" schedules.

Lots of credit to Reich and kudos to Luck.

Weeks 15 and 16 at home against the Cowboys and Giants look like fine matchups for the playoffs.  Grats if you have him on your fantasy teams.

 
Simply incredible. At one point I convinced myself the guy would never play again....and certainly if he did he would not be as effective...what a great story. Would love to see him sneak into the playoffs....right now that team is playing good football all the way around.

 
Simply incredible. At one point I convinced myself the guy would never play again....and certainly if he did he would not be as effective...what a great story. Would love to see him sneak into the playoffs....right now that team is playing good football all the way around.
All of this. One of the most fun players to watch right now. He’s completely locked in. 

 
Get this one out of the way before the playoffs.   This one hurt though.

Houston next week, best game of the year week 4.   No way he repeats that though.    40/62   464yds, 4tds

 
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Get this one out of the way before the playoffs.   This one hurt though.

Houston next week, best game of the year week 4.   No way he repeats that though.    40/62   464yds, 4tds
Same thing I thought.  If he’s gonna have a bad fantasy week let’s get it out there now.

Jax D backs came in primed for this matchup and nobody was getting open.  Beside the Int Luck actually played pretty well with what the D gave him, that was just barely anything.

Houston isn’t going to play the Indy receivers this well.

 
Career high yardage for Mayfield at Houston this week.  

Starting Luck in the first round of my playoffs with confidence.

 
Some context for Luck’s “tough matchup” this week:

Here is the list for underachieving QBs vs. Houston (less than 20 points);

Gabbert, Prescott (he didn’t put up 20 fantasy points 4/5 games to start the year.  Houston game was just one example), Allen (alleged cheap shot took him out mid game), Peterman, Bortles, Kessler, Osweiler, Keenum (17 points so he got close), Alex Smith (they broke his leg), McCoy and Mayfield.  Mayfield would have broken 20 fantasy points if he had thrown two less interceptions.  His passing yardage in that game (almost 400) was a career high.

Over achieving QBs vs Houston (20 points plus): 

Brady, Eli, Luck, Mariota. That’s it.  

So maybe this is a tough fantasy matchup for Luck or maybe Houston has just played an absurdly high percentage of bad fantasy QBs this year and injured a couple more mid game.  Guess we’ll find out.

 
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If Hilton sits I think Luck is a bad play in a tough match up.  The Colts WRs outside of Hilton are just plain bad.  Good thing he has Ebron and he's even under the weather.   Even if Hilton plays I don't expect big numbers from Luck.   I'm thinking about rolling the dice with Lamar Jackson instead against a leaky Chiefs defense.

 
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