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Drew Brees Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter tjnc09
- Start date
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
Have happily had him since his first year in New Orleans and am looking forward to many more
Shutout
Footballguy
How many more years can this guy possibly have left? Robot it right. Guy's been like a machine.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Has anyone ever tried stacking Brees and a later round QB/stream with the plan of only starting Brees for his home games? I know it seems crazy to draft a QB so high and only play him half the time, but the numbers might indicate it's the best way to have elite QB play that makes it worth the risk. Drew has some crazy road/home splits.
2012-2015
Home: 332 yards and 2.875 TDs per game (next best is Brady at 287 and 2.1)
Away: 307 yards and 1.77 TD (Brady was 276 and 1.8)
This is such a massive difference. If we put those out to a full season, we can see how huge the road/home split play is here.
Home: Brees 5312 and 46, Brady 4592 and 34
Away: 4912 and 28, Brady 4416 and 29.
Those splits are nuts, but I think you would be hard pressed to find a QB that can even out perform Brees' lower road splits over a season. However, you might weekly find guys that can out perform it. There is a perception among some fantasy players that Brees has fallen off and isn't the same great QB he once was. Let's look at the 2015 numbers.
Home: 356 and 2.9= 5696 and 46
Road: 288 and 1.3= 4608 and 21
We have an incredibly insane split here as well road numbers that can be easily matched. From quick glance it looks like there were about 25 QBs that posted better per game numbers than Drew's road splits last year. We also do have a weird outlier of 2014 where he was actually slightly better on the road than at home which could totally destroy the play. Ultimately, It does seem like you could combine Brees home numbers and streamers to get something like:
345 and 2.7 (8) + 249 and 2 (8)= 2760 and 22 + 1992 and 16= 4752 and 38. Take out about 20 points for a balance of Ints and rushing. That is 398 in a 6 pt TD league which would have been QB just a couple points behind RW. It's about 20 points or almost a full game ahead of where Brees finished.
It is probably an insane strategy, but anyone else ever thought about it?
2012-2015
Home: 332 yards and 2.875 TDs per game (next best is Brady at 287 and 2.1)
Away: 307 yards and 1.77 TD (Brady was 276 and 1.8)
This is such a massive difference. If we put those out to a full season, we can see how huge the road/home split play is here.
Home: Brees 5312 and 46, Brady 4592 and 34
Away: 4912 and 28, Brady 4416 and 29.
Those splits are nuts, but I think you would be hard pressed to find a QB that can even out perform Brees' lower road splits over a season. However, you might weekly find guys that can out perform it. There is a perception among some fantasy players that Brees has fallen off and isn't the same great QB he once was. Let's look at the 2015 numbers.
Home: 356 and 2.9= 5696 and 46
Road: 288 and 1.3= 4608 and 21
We have an incredibly insane split here as well road numbers that can be easily matched. From quick glance it looks like there were about 25 QBs that posted better per game numbers than Drew's road splits last year. We also do have a weird outlier of 2014 where he was actually slightly better on the road than at home which could totally destroy the play. Ultimately, It does seem like you could combine Brees home numbers and streamers to get something like:
345 and 2.7 (8) + 249 and 2 (8)= 2760 and 22 + 1992 and 16= 4752 and 38. Take out about 20 points for a balance of Ints and rushing. That is 398 in a 6 pt TD league which would have been QB just a couple points behind RW. It's about 20 points or almost a full game ahead of where Brees finished.
It is probably an insane strategy, but anyone else ever thought about it?
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Deamon
Footballguy
Interesting take. You did say that his play has been 'down a bit' and then posted 2015 as even better numbers then your 2011-2015 stats though??? It's likely moreso that the league has just caught up to him a bit. However, with his weapons around him this year, I think they'll be up again.
As for the strategy I think a modified version is more realistic and maybe not a bad idea. You couldn't simply sit him every away game though. It would have to be taking a QB later with a high ceiling like a Mariota/Winston and plugging them in WHEN New O had a tough matchup AND was on the road, and, ONLY if that coincides with a decent matchup for your other QB.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
A typo- meant to have a question mark there and some kind of reference to what I feel general opinion is among many fantasy players. A lot of more casual fans I know have talked about how bad Brees was last year or how he just isn't as good as he used to be.
As for which QBs to play. I think you treat it just like streaming. Rotate guys on and off your team for good match-ups. Any starting QB in the league in the right match-up has top 12 QB potential for a week. I think it was something like 42 QBs last year had at least 1 week of top 12QB numbers.
Deamon
Footballguy
Depending on where Brady slips to, what about that as a combo? Brees is typically being undervalued and you could probably get both of them in the 6/7 round range. Might be a bit to high to pay for 2 qbs, but if you have a 6 point passing td league it could be worth it.
First 4 weeks Brees' only 2 away games are vs the Giants and the Chargers, both shouldn't be cold at that time and both don't have the best pass D's. Then on Brees' week 4 bye, Brady comes back and beats up on the Browns.
Brees remaining road games:
Week 7- Brady gets a soft steelers pass D.
Week 9- Patriots bye, but let Brees go wild on San Fran... should also not be cold which is where he struggles the most
Week 11- Brady gets San Fran
Week 14/15- Brady gets Ravens/Broncos
Don't love the playoff week 14/15 matchups, but the rest of the season seems to work perfectly.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Certainly could be interesting. Too pricey for me though. I'd prefer Stafford. Brees is on the road/bye in weeks 2,4,5,7,9,11. Stafford faces four of bottom 8 pass defenses during those 6 weeks.
Note, the other potential weakness here is that the Saints have the toughest QB schedule in the NFL this year. I haven't seen any good research on how consistent/accurate those are year to year.
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Deamon
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Stafford also faces three bottom 8 passing defenses during weeks 13-15. Brees is home against the bottom 8 Bucs for week 16. Brees/Staff is a very nice combo.
Willie Neslon
Footballguy
Anyone worried about Brees schedule? Brutal stretch in the middle of the season:
weeks 5 - 11: Carolina, @KC, Seattle, @SF, Denver, @Carolina
weeks 5 - 11: Carolina, @KC, Seattle, @SF, Denver, @Carolina
Not overly concerned. The only games of Brees that worry me are the ones with the @. I just know he will put up average points on those weeks and I consider using my backuo if he has a good matchup.
Willie Neslon
Footballguy
Three tough home games in a row though. Carolina, Seattle Denver. That's as tough a 3 game home stretch as there is.
Definitely looks scary. I will never question starting Brees in the Superdome again though. Burns me everytime
Willie Neslon
Footballguy
If you have him you're starting him. I was just asking more for drafting purposes. People talking about Brees having stellar weapons but nobody talking about this tough stretch on the schedule.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Schedule analysis right now. While useful. Also could mean nothing. And he gets sea and denver at home.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Per NFL.com, $44.25M fully guaranteed over the next 2 years, with $20M in 2016.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000696100/article/drew-brees-saints-agree-on-contract-extension
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000696100/article/drew-brees-saints-agree-on-contract-extension
Judge Smails
Footballguy
Drafted him again. Doesn't have the easiest schedule, but defense is so bad they should have plenty of volume with more weapons..
saintfool
Dead sexy
this has been the case for a few years now. maybe now with improved cast around him, he can be more efficient and not just put up gaudy numbers.
grateful zed
Footballguy
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Carolina's not that tough and considering the Saints have to play them I'm very happy they get Denver and Seattle in NO, those are really tough places to play.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
The funny thing is that I had a draft on Monday night where I grabbed Brees as the 7th qb taken in our draft--I got him in the 7th round--and was feeling like he was decent value there. I wish I had done my due diligence and looked at the schedule because I probably would have passed on him. I did grab Stafford late as my qb2--and luckily he has what I'd call 3+ matchups in that brutal stretch that Brees has. With that being said--even with that schedule--I still woudn't be surprised to see Brees finish the season as a top 5-6 fantasy qb.
TripItUp
Footballguy
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Sadly--I completely agree with you. If you look at their upcoming schedule--it was important that they have a solid first 3-4 games of the season. I can't see them digging themselves out of this hole with the makeup of their schedule.
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
Trust him at home.
Look what he did at home against the #1 Broncos pass D week 10.
Last week was an anomaly
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Mooks
Footballguy
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
Well then. I would go with your gut. Depends on your other options. I still may start him because my only other option is Tyrod
Mooks
Footballguy
Well Tyrod vs Browns could be good? Other option is Stafford v Giants. I actually picked up Tyrod off waivers this week after Brees wet the bed week 13.
dcgangstas
Footballguy
Unless you have a viable alternative, you have to start Brees. In my particular case, my alternative would be Eli at home against Detroit, and I just can't pull the trigger on him.
Arizona's pass defense isn't as formidable as it used to be, and Brees has a lot of weapons at his disposal in Week 15. He got you this far, might as well stay the course.
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
Saw that Tyrod has Cleveland. The weather is getting bad up North so that could decide it for me. (wind, cold, precip)
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
On the surface ot looks like less passing in NO this year. Traded Cooks, signed Peterson. Not sure id bank on the usual Drew Brees numbers this season.
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