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Toby Gerhart - dynasty buy? (1 Viewer)

EBF

EBF

Footballguy
With the dynasty trade deadline approaching in a lot of leagues, I've been looking around for interesting buy low candidates. Toby Gerhart seems like a guy who could be a sensible cheap investment, especially in mandatory 2RB leagues. He's ranked incredibly low on almost any generic dynasty rankings you'll find, yet I think there's some chance that he could have real value over the next 2-3 years.

POSITIVES

- 2nd round pick (51st overall) in 2010.

- Career 4.3 YPC average.

- Top 12 PPR RB while filling in for Peterson in 2011 (weeks 11-17).

- Above average receiver for his size.

- Solid size/speed/explosiveness combination. 230 pounds with 4.50 speed in the 40 and a 38" vertical leap.

- Prolific college player (Heisman runner-up, D1A leader in rushing yards in 2009).

NEGATIVES

- Relatively old (turns 27 in March).

- Modest overall production.

- Lacks great quickness or make-you-miss ability. More solid than explosive.

Despite being a high draft pick, a great college player, and a decent NFL performer, Gerhart is regarded as waiver fodder in a lot of dynasty leagues. I think that's a bit unfair. Gerhart has been relatively quiet since entering the league, but the reason for that is very obvious. He has been very unlucky to be stuck on the same team as the best pure runner in the league. With Peterson being so great, it's understandable that his backup would never get any carries. Similar to how Darren Sproles and Michael Turner were bit players in San Diego behind Tomlinson. I don't think you can blame that on Gerhart. There are probably only a handful of backs in the league who could force their way into a timeshare with Peterson.

The good news for Gerhart's FF value is that the biggest roadblock to him becoming useful (the lack of opportunity) could be clearing up soon. Gerhart is set to become a free agent in just a few months and there are several RB-needy teams across the league. I count at least 9 teams where he would have some chance of at least becoming a significant contributor in a RBBC, if not an outright starter:

Miami

New York Jets

Cleveland

Jacksonville

Oakland

New York Giants

Atlanta

Arizona

St. Louis

San Francisco

Is there a huge ceiling here? Probably not. I don't think Gerhart is some kind of Pro Bowl talent. On the other hand, I don't think he's incapable of doing what Eddie Lacy and LeVeon Bell are doing right now, and those two guys are automatic starters in a lot of leagues. Given that he's valued between RB60-RB85 on most lists, I think he's a strong buy if you can get him for a RB40-50 price.

Since he's already near worthless and already in the worst situation possible, there's virtually no way his value can go down. Either he signs with a team where he can play and his value rises, or he lands another backup gig and remains worthless. If you can get him for dirt cheap, you can't really lose.

 
He's definitely on my list for guys to add at the end of the season (when I can cut a kicker or some other week-to-week matchup-type to hold upside guys for the offseason). I don't currently have room for a guy like Gerhart, but the good news for me is that no one else in my league does either.

Last year, those spots went to guys like Housler, Jordan Cameron, etc. Just takes one to pay off, and you've struck gold.

Gerhart's a much better athlete than he's given credit for, and in his career as the primary back:

  • 2010 Week 12 -- 22 for 76 yds, 2 receptions for 5 yds - 1 TD
  • 2010 Week 15 -- 16 for 77 yds, 3 receptions for 18 yds - 1 Fumble Lost
  • 2011 Week 12 -- 17 for 44 yds, 2 receptions for 19 yds - 1 TD
  • 2011 Week 13 -- 21 for 91 yds, 8 receptions for 42 yds
  • 2011 Week 14 -- 19 for 90 yds, 3 receptions for 19 yds - 1 TD
  • 2011 Week 15 -- 2 for 12 yds, 4 receptions for 46 yds - 2 TDs
  • 2011 Week 16 -- 11 for 109 yds
  • 2011 Week 17 -- 15 for 67 yds, 1 reception for 3 yds
Just so happens to be half a season's worth of data -- during which he's totaled 566 yards rushing (4.6 YPC), 152 yards receiving on 23 receptions, and 5 TDs.

That's an average line (on a per game basis) of 89.8 total yards with 2.9 receptions and .6 TDs --> 15.48 PPG in PPR

The thing we'll have to assess with Gerhart... is he more Michael Bush (where he willingly chooses to back up another pretty elite starter), or Michael Turner (where he wants a shot to do it himself - and produces like an RB1 for a few years)?

 
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JFS171 said:
The thing we'll have to assess with Gerhart... is he more Michael Bush (where he willingly chooses to back up another pretty elite starter), or Michael Turner (where he wants a shot to do it himself - and produces like an RB1 for a few years)?
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That's also going to hinge on what kind of offers he gets. If KC gives him $4 mil per season to be Jamaal Charles' caddy then maybe he'll just grab the cash. However, my hunch is that he probably has a bit of a chip on his shoulder after riding the pine all these years and would prefer to go to a team where he can actually play and contribute. I don't think too many teams are going to look at him as the absolute answer for their RB situation, but if he goes somewhere like Oakland or Jacksonville and his only competition for the starting job is a 2nd-4th round rookie then he's got a real shot to be a top 15-20 FF back next year.

I've become a big fan of buying players whose lack of immediate opportunity has suppressed their dynasty value. I often cite Bernard Pierce, Christine Michael, Bryce Brown, and Jonathan Stewart as examples. Gerhart is another one. He might be an even more attractive case because everyone is sooooo down on the guy. Think about it. He was better than Eddie Lacy, Christine Michael, and LeVeon Bell in college. He was picked in essentially the same slot in his draft (actually higher than Michael and Lacy). And yet those guys are trendy dynasty buys whereas Gerhart is viewed as almost worthless.

I think people have excessively downgraded him based on the lack of production, which really isn't his fault. Almost nobody would've played a lot behind Peterson all these years. Only some kind of supreme top 10 NFL talent could even push him at all. Gerhart isn't on that level, but I fully believe he's good enough to be Eddie Lacy/LeVeon Bell/Knowshon Moreno if given the chance. I think people are sleeping on his value. The Colts were thinking about trading for him before they got Richardson and you can bet that some teams with RB needs will be interested when he hits the market.

 
I think the problem you may run into is if he's rostered it might be as a handcuff. I own Peterson in my dynasty league and have Gerhart as his obvious handcuff and it would take a very compelling offer to get me to trade him away--in other words one that belies his potential as a starter and not what he is worth as a mere backup.

 
Fair point - hard to blame a guy for taking the money, but Bush had other options with much less competition for playing time - and I don't think the money was THAT far off.

I hope you're right in Gerhart having a chip on his shoulder... He should.

 
biju said:
I think the problem you may run into is if he's rostered it might be as a handcuff. I own Peterson in my dynasty league and have Gerhart as his obvious handcuff and it would take a very compelling offer to get me to trade him away--in other words one that belies his potential as a starter and not what he is worth as a mere backup.
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Yea, I think that's valid. I just had a team knock back a pretty decent offer under similar reasoning.

Gerhart is much easier to acquire from teams who have no stake in Peterson.

However, you may be able to get him at the end of the season when the need for a handcuff is gone. They may actually prefer the roster spot at that point. So you could came back and try your luck in January with an offer.

 
EBF said:
JFS171 said:
The thing we'll have to assess with Gerhart... is he more Michael Bush (where he willingly chooses to back up another pretty elite starter), or Michael Turner (where he wants a shot to do it himself - and produces like an RB1 for a few years)?
Click to expand...
That's also going to hinge on what kind of offers he gets. If KC gives him $4 mil per season to be Jamaal Charles' caddy then maybe he'll just grab the cash. However, my hunch is that he probably has a bit of a chip on his shoulder after riding the pine all these years and would prefer to go to a team where he can actually play and contribute. I don't think too many teams are going to look at him as the absolute answer for their RB situation, but if he goes somewhere like Oakland or Jacksonville and his only competition for the starting job is a 2nd-4th round rookie then he's got a real shot to be a top 15-20 FF back next year.

I've become a big fan of buying players whose lack of immediate opportunity has suppressed their dynasty value. I often cite Bernard Pierce, Christine Michael, Bryce Brown, and Jonathan Stewart as examples. Gerhart is another one. He might be an even more attractive case because everyone is sooooo down on the guy. Think about it. He was better than Eddie Lacy, Christine Michael, and LeVeon Bell in college. He was picked in essentially the same slot in his draft (actually higher than Michael and Lacy). And yet those guys are trendy dynasty buys whereas Gerhart is viewed as almost worthless.

I think people have excessively downgraded him based on the lack of production, which really isn't his fault. Almost nobody would've played a lot behind Peterson all these years. Only some kind of supreme top 10 NFL talent could even push him at all. Gerhart isn't on that level, but I fully believe he's good enough to be Eddie Lacy/LeVeon Bell/Knowshon Moreno if given the chance. I think people are sleeping on his value. The Colts were thinking about trading for him before they got Richardson and you can bet that some teams with RB needs will be interested when he hits the market.
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Gerhart definitely is one of those guys that should be a guy to get, for all the reasons you mentioned. But he has had a few limited opportunities in the past, and he has always looked pretty bad. Not saying he's not worth a flier since he's probably sitting on waiver wires in some leagues, but I would really be surprised if he ever does anything significant.

 
BeTheMatch said:
EBF said:
JFS171 said:
The thing we'll have to assess with Gerhart... is he more Michael Bush (where he willingly chooses to back up another pretty elite starter), or Michael Turner (where he wants a shot to do it himself - and produces like an RB1 for a few years)?
Click to expand...
That's also going to hinge on what kind of offers he gets. If KC gives him $4 mil per season to be Jamaal Charles' caddy then maybe he'll just grab the cash. However, my hunch is that he probably has a bit of a chip on his shoulder after riding the pine all these years and would prefer to go to a team where he can actually play and contribute. I don't think too many teams are going to look at him as the absolute answer for their RB situation, but if he goes somewhere like Oakland or Jacksonville and his only competition for the starting job is a 2nd-4th round rookie then he's got a real shot to be a top 15-20 FF back next year.

I've become a big fan of buying players whose lack of immediate opportunity has suppressed their dynasty value. I often cite Bernard Pierce, Christine Michael, Bryce Brown, and Jonathan Stewart as examples. Gerhart is another one. He might be an even more attractive case because everyone is sooooo down on the guy. Think about it. He was better than Eddie Lacy, Christine Michael, and LeVeon Bell in college. He was picked in essentially the same slot in his draft (actually higher than Michael and Lacy). And yet those guys are trendy dynasty buys whereas Gerhart is viewed as almost worthless.

I think people have excessively downgraded him based on the lack of production, which really isn't his fault. Almost nobody would've played a lot behind Peterson all these years. Only some kind of supreme top 10 NFL talent could even push him at all. Gerhart isn't on that level, but I fully believe he's good enough to be Eddie Lacy/LeVeon Bell/Knowshon Moreno if given the chance. I think people are sleeping on his value. The Colts were thinking about trading for him before they got Richardson and you can bet that some teams with RB needs will be interested when he hits the market.
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Gerhart definitely is one of those guys that should be a guy to get, for all the reasons you mentioned. But he has had a few limited opportunities in the past, and he has always looked pretty bad. Not saying he's not worth a flier since he's probably sitting on waiver wires in some leagues, but I would really be surprised if he ever does anything significant.
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Really? I haven't watched much of MIN the past couple of years, so I'm just box-score scouting, but his stats have always seemed to be pretty solid. Pretty good career YPC, and for that stretch in 2011 when he got extended run, he had around a 4.55. I don't know how he's looked while accumulating those stats, but the stats themselves are pretty decent.

 
BeTheMatch said:
Gerhart definitely is one of those guys that should be a guy to get, for all the reasons you mentioned. But he has had a few limited opportunities in the past, and he has always looked pretty bad. Not saying he's not worth a flier since he's probably sitting on waiver wires in some leagues, but I would really be surprised if he ever does anything significant.
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I definitely don't think he's a difference-maker at the NFL, but I think he has shown flashes of competence. Most notably the run of games in 2011 when Peterson was out. Gerhart seemed to be the kind of guy in college who gained momentum and effectiveness as the game wore on and the defense got tired, so that could be part of the reason why he hasn't been outstanding in spot duty. He hasn't been horrible though. His 4.3 YPC is quite solid.

It's pretty clear that his game lacks the "wow" factor. He's an upright, one speed runner. Not very elusive. Decent top speed, but certainly not a burner at the NFL level. Not explosive. It's tough to envision him becoming much more than a Shonn Greene/BJGE at the NFL level. He can catch the ball though (important in PPR leagues). Probably the most significant variable is the cost. His perceived value is very low. He has even been dropped in some of my leagues. If he's only the 45th best RB in the NFL, but you can get him for the price of the 75th best RB, that still makes him a good value.

I think at any given time there are handful of really good backs in the NFL (maybe 12-15) and then the rest of the starting spots are filled by mediocrities. I wouldn't say Gerhart is a great talent, but then again I wouldn't say that about Moreno or Bell either. We've seen quite a few guys like Hillis, Tolbert, and Moreno have important FF seasons because they were good enough to be serviceable and they were in the right place at the right time. In a deep mandatory start 2 RB league, it wouldn't take a huge stretch for Gerhart to become a RB3 or maybe even a RB2 with a change of scenery.

 
EBF said:
BeTheMatch said:
Gerhart definitely is one of those guys that should be a guy to get, for all the reasons you mentioned. But he has had a few limited opportunities in the past, and he has always looked pretty bad. Not saying he's not worth a flier since he's probably sitting on waiver wires in some leagues, but I would really be surprised if he ever does anything significant.
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I definitely don't think he's a difference-maker at the NFL, but I think he has shown flashes of competence. Most notably the run of games in 2011 when Peterson was out. Gerhart seemed to be the kind of guy in college who gained momentum and effectiveness as the game wore on and the defense got tired, so that could be part of the reason why he hasn't been outstanding in spot duty. He hasn't been horrible though. His 4.3 YPC is quite solid.

It's pretty clear that his game lacks the "wow" factor. He's an upright, one speed runner. Not very elusive. Decent top speed, but certainly not a burner at the NFL level. Not explosive. It's tough to envision him becoming much more than a Shonn Greene/BJGE at the NFL level. He can catch the ball though (important in PPR leagues). Probably the most significant variable is the cost. His perceived value is very low. He has even been dropped in some of my leagues. If he's only the 45th best RB in the NFL, but you can get him for the price of the 75th best RB, that still makes him a good value.

I think at any given time there are handful of really good backs in the NFL (maybe 12-15) and then the rest of the starting spots are filled by mediocrities. I wouldn't say Gerhart is a great talent, but then again I wouldn't say that about Moreno or Bell either. We've seen quite a few guys like Hillis, Tolbert, and Moreno have important FF seasons because they were good enough to be serviceable and they were in the right place at the right time. In a deep mandatory start 2 RB league, it wouldn't take a huge stretch for Gerhart to become a RB3 or maybe even a RB2 with a change of scenery.
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I could see him landing a gig for a year or two. And so, again, why not take a flier if that's possible given the cost here. I just think even guys like Ryan Grant or BJGE looked a lot better when they flashed than anything I've ever seen from Gerhart. But I still think it would be a smart move to roster him. You never know.

 
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I picked him up off waivers for the same reasons, but I don't hold out a lot of hope because of his age and his lack of "wow" factor. It's really a question of whether he gets lucky in FA and lands in just the right spot.

 
I actually like his talent, but I'd have to say "no" to the OP question. As mentioned, he's probably on every AP owner's roster where he has more value as a handcuff. They will likely want to hang onto him on the chance that MIN re-signs him to be AP's backup again, so the price to acquire him won't be cheap enough.

Second, where is he going to go? He's a talented guy but there are several talented free agents next year. MJD still has some life left, DMC is still young, Ben Tate is extremely appealing. Then we've got Chris Johnson who is due $10 million so he'll probably be cut (only $4 million in dead money/cap hit). Frank Gore is due $6.5 million with no dead money if cut. So ignoring the draft, there are going to be a lot of FA options out there that he'll be competing with. I think he's much more likely to end up in a Michael Bush scenario than Michael Turner scenario.

 
Andy Dufresne said:
He's not very good. He's a Ron Dayne, Brandon Jacobs (later in his career), Peyton Hillis kind of runner.
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This. He's not getting signed somewhere to carry the load, so best case is a situation where he's 1B to a 1A, or a handcuff in the event the feature back gets injured (i.e. the same role that he's currently in).

IT's true that he's basically free right now if he's owned by a non-Peterson owner, but that's about the extent of what he has going for him IMO.

 
guys he is not that good he is sort of like a going to a restaurant and ordering one of those huge steaks that costs a ton of money and they say well you get it free if you can eat it all and you are looking at the menu and your eyes are all full of steaks dancing thru the sky and you order it up and then about half way through when you realize it is just a big slab of only kind of good meat and that you are never going to finish it you start thinking man this is not what i thought it was and how much am i going to have to pay for this that right there my friends is old toby so take that to the steak bank brohans

 
Maybe I am wrong, but IIRC, the last two years (mostly pre-season) those who saw the games he was in (not me) said that he looked mediocre, slow and plodding. Not a player I would stash unless the league was really deep (like 28-30 players).

 
FF Ninja said:
Second, where is he going to go? He's a talented guy but there are several talented free agents next year. MJD still has some life left, DMC is still young, Ben Tate is extremely appealing. Then we've got Chris Johnson who is due $10 million so he'll probably be cut (only $4 million in dead money/cap hit). Frank Gore is due $6.5 million with no dead money if cut. So ignoring the draft, there are going to be a lot of FA options out there that he'll be competing with. I think he's much more likely to end up in a Michael Bush scenario than Michael Turner scenario.
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I think there's a legitimate question of whether or not MJD or Chris Johnson are even better than him at this point in their careers. Obviously they had way more talent at one point, but at least based on their play this season you could make a case that those two are basically done.

I think Ben Tate will probably get the most money of the upcoming free agent RBs. Someone will sign McFadden and probably use him in more of a committee situation. After those two I think Gerhart has as much chance to be signed into a prominent role as anyone.

The most likely scenario is him going somewhere as an insurance policy to someone who isn't quite reliable yet. That could be to a place like Arizona to compete with Ellington or to a team like Oakland or Jacksonville that's likely to draft a back high this next year. I fully agree that it's unlikely someone will pursue him as the obvious answer to its problems, but at the same time his opportunity can't possibly get any worse.

I view him as a deep league special. I've basically made no effort to acquire him in my start 1RB leagues because it's so unlikely that he'll be useful there. In deep start 2RB leagues where any back with a pulse has a chance to start some games for you, I think that's where he has obvious appeal.

 
JFS171 said:
Fair point - hard to blame a guy for taking the money, but Bush had other options with much less competition for playing time - and I don't think the money was THAT far off.

I hope you're right in Gerhart having a chip on his shoulder... He should.
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Also, IIRC, the year Bush went to CHI was the year following Forte's one down year in his career thus far...I don't think people thought Forte would be a "lock" to be there the next year.

 
EBF said:
FF Ninja said:
Second, where is he going to go? He's a talented guy but there are several talented free agents next year. MJD still has some life left, DMC is still young, Ben Tate is extremely appealing. Then we've got Chris Johnson who is due $10 million so he'll probably be cut (only $4 million in dead money/cap hit). Frank Gore is due $6.5 million with no dead money if cut. So ignoring the draft, there are going to be a lot of FA options out there that he'll be competing with. I think he's much more likely to end up in a Michael Bush scenario than Michael Turner scenario.
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I think there's a legitimate question of whether or not MJD or Chris Johnson are even better than him at this point in their careers. Obviously they had way more talent at one point, but at least based on their play this season you could make a case that those two are basically done.

I think Ben Tate will probably get the most money of the upcoming free agent RBs. Someone will sign McFadden and probably use him in more of a committee situation. After those two I think Gerhart has as much chance to be signed into a prominent role as anyone.

The most likely scenario is him going somewhere as an insurance policy to someone who isn't quite reliable yet. That could be to a place like Arizona to compete with Ellington or to a team like Oakland or Jacksonville that's likely to draft a back high this next year. I fully agree that it's unlikely someone will pursue him as the obvious answer to its problems, but at the same time his opportunity can't possibly get any worse.

I view him as a deep league special. I've basically made no effort to acquire him in my start 1RB leagues because it's so unlikely that he'll be useful there. In deep start 2RB leagues where any back with a pulse has a chance to start some games for you, I think that's where he has obvious appeal.
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Any other notables (obviously we cannot predict cuts), coming up on FA in 2014?

 
i watched olympus is fallen last weekend and it had the guy from 300 in it who is one of my favorite movie guys ever leonidis who would totally kick butt all over and when he was the last one and it was him versus the whole other army alone i told my wife man these guys do not even know what they have coming this brohan right here kicked zerksees butt and built a wall out of dead guys so just hold on and watch this and bam next thing you know he is saving everyone and kicking butt and getting the bad guy right in the eye it was totally awesome so long story short rent anything with that guy in it becuause leonidis is awesome and do not waste your time with toby gearhart take that to the bank brohans

 
BusterTBronco said:
He is actually getting less carries than ever this year. That tells me that the Vikings do not think he is very good.
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I wouldn't put a lot of faith in what this coaching staff thinks.

 
15 carries for 158 yards the last two weeks. Putting himself in the shop window for all the RB-needy teams.

 
http://espn.go.com/blog/minnesota-vikings/post/_/id/2650/rapid-reaction-minnesota-vikings-7

Stock watch: Rising: Toby Gerhart. The backup running back has talked many times about how he's auditioning for his shot at free agency next year after spending three years behind Adrian Peterson, and when he got his chance to work on Sunday, Gerhart didn't disappoint. He gained 91 yards on eight carries, getting more work than usual while Peterson played with a strained groin, and broke several big runs on the Vikings' game-tying overtime drive after the Packers started the extra period with a field goal. Gerhart didn't match his career high of 109 yards, but as he gets close to free agency, he might have made himself a little money with what he did on Sunday.
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I hope the Raiders and Browns are taking notes. :banned:

 
EBF said:
15 carries for 158 yards the last two weeks. Putting himself in the shop window for all the RB-needy teams.
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I'll be honest: I don't expect him to be a starter ever. But worst backs have gotten the chance. And he could be a volume guy--a guy who could have fantasy value if he gets 20+ touches a week. I think he has the size and health to be a volume guy.

It would be nice if the Vikings used him more down the stretch to keep ADP healthy.

Oakland would be a good landing spot for him and he went to Stanford so the Bay area would be a good fit for him.

 
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az_prof said:
I'll be honest: I don't expect him to be a starter ever. But worst backs have gotten the chance. And he could be a volume guy--a guy who could have fantasy value if he gets 20+ touches a week. I think he has the size and health to be a volume guy.
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I have him squarely in the tier of "good enough to be serviceable if given an opportunity, but not so good that most teams in the NFL would want him as a starter."

All it takes is one team believing for him to become a top 15 redraft RB in 2014. The fact that he's a free agent means he's a more sensible immediate solution for RB-needy teams compared with other promising backups like Pierce, Stewart, and Bolden. You don't have to spend a draft pick to get him. Just throw some $$$ his way for a couple years. That could be attractive to teams looking to improve their RB spot without huge investment. The biggest roadblock is the relatively small number of truly wide open RB jobs. There only figure to be about 3-5 teams with a completely wide open starting job available in the offseason. The rest would be either horrible situations (i.e. Philadelphia and Tampa Bay) or messy RBBCs where it's difficult to project how much he'd play (i.e. Atlanta, San Francisco, Arizona).

We'll see what happens. The fact that he's playing well right now is good though, as it will be like an advertisement to the whole league. Come and get me.

 
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Gerhart playing well makes him one of the top handcuffs too. Any redraft Peterson owners would be crazy not to hold Gerhart right now. I dropped Ellington for him a few weeks ago when Peterson's groin injury became apparent

 
az_prof said:
EBF said:
15 carries for 158 yards the last two weeks. Putting himself in the shop window for all the RB-needy teams.
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I'll be honest: I don't expect him to be a starter ever. But worst backs have gotten the chance. And he could be a volume guy--a guy who could have fantasy value if he gets 20+ touches a week. I think he has the size and health to be a volume guy.
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This. The soon-to-be FA types (new team signees) are commonly way overvalued in dynasty. I think with success of Michael Turner in Atlanta, people assume grass is always greener.

Michael Bush (comparable talent to Gerhart at the time IMO) had to settle for a backup deal and I imagine Gerhart will be no different. Good guy (a la Rashad Jennings) that can be serviceable filling in.

If you can get him for peanuts in dynasty go for it. But if you think you'll be able to spin him for more based upon where he lands (where IMO it'll be committee at best for him), I think you'll be disappointed. I'd go the FA-to-be WR route first.

Someone like Meachem was going for a lot once he was annointed '#1 WR' in San Diego. It was amazing some of the comments I read here about him after he signed there.

 
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Craig_MiamiFL said:
Michael Bush (comparable talent to Gerhart at the time IMO) had to settle for a backup deal and I imagine Gerhart will be no different. Good guy (a la Rashad Jennings) that can be serviceable filling in.
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Hard to say for sure how teams are going to look at him. Michael Turner is obviously a best-case-scenario, but there have been lesser success stories like Benson, Ivory, Green-Ellis, and Woodhead who have achieved various levels of FF relevance after running down their rookie contract and signing with a new team (well Ivory was actually traded, but it's similar). Gerhart's background is a little more promising than the typical FA fodder given his dominant college career and high NFL draft slot. He was a more highly-regarded player coming into the league than Bush or Jennings, so that might be a bit harsh of a comparison. The fact that the Colts were eyeballing him in a trade earlier this season provides further support for the idea that some teams might covet him.

If I'm a team like Cleveland or Oakland and I've got holes all over my roster, I think I'd rather sign a game-ready veteran like Gerhart for a modest contract and pair him with a late round rookie challenger than spend a high pick on a green newcomer who will command a pretty significant salary.

From our perspective, it's a dice roll. Maybe he signs with Cleveland and rushes for 1200 yards next year. Maybe he signs with Detroit and rushes for 400 yards. One thing we know is that opportunity has value when it comes to FF RBs. And Gerhart may soon have a lot more of it. So I like the idea of getting a cheap lottery ticket with the potential for an instant payoff come March. It's all about getting him for a throw-in price. If you can do that, why not? If someone is looking to recoup a top 15-20 rookie pick for him, it might not be worth the trouble. There aren't a lot of guys walking around the league with his credentials and instant boom potential available for cheap though.

 
Saw this today:

http://www.twincities.com/vikings/ci_24629518/vikings-toby-gerhart-might-be-difficult-keep-around

Jerome Felton expects to be blocking next season for Adrian Peterson. As for Toby Gerhart, probably not.

Gerhart has been playing behind star running back Peterson in Minnesota for four years. But Felton won't be surprised to see Gerhart carrying the ball somewhere else next season.

"There's a good chance he will be (one) pretty soon,'' Felton, the Vikings' fullback, said about Gerhart being a starting back with another team. "He's obviously had a lot of success when he's got an opportunity here, so I assume that will continue on forward. I know he's going to be a free agent after this year, and I'm sure there's going to be a lot of teams trying to get him.''

So Gerhart, 26, could be heading into his final five games with the Vikings. While he doesn't want to get ahead of himself, he does admit "it'd be nice'' to be a feature back.

"I hope so,'' Gerhart said about making a continued impression on free-agent suitors the remainder of the season. "That's what you hope for, and trying to play hard and put things on tape and assess your resume and see what happens.''

Over the past two games, Gerhart has carried 15 times for 158 yards for a staggering average of 10.5 per carry. That came after he had carried just four times in the season's first nine games.

Gerhart's seven carries for 67 yards in Minnesota's 41-20 loss at Seattle on Nov. 17 mostly came after the game had been decided. But that wasn't the case with the 91 yards on eight carries Gerhart gained in a 26-26 tie last Sunday at Green Bay.

In the overtime, Gerhart carried four times for 33 yards. It's no wonder Gerhart has plenty of confidence that he can be a showcase guy.

"I think I can definitely be a feature back, a 1,000-yard rusher, if I had the carries and the opportunities,'' said Gerhart, who has rushed 19 times for 186 yards on the season for an average of 9.8 per carry. "But, right now, I'm where I'm at and I got a role I got to embrace.''

Where he's at is behind Peterson, who had 521 of Minnesota's 578 carries by a running back in the team's 25 regular-season games prior to the one at Seattle. But Peterson has been battling a groin strain the past two games, and Vikings coach Leslie Frazier turned to Gerhart to take some of the load off.

Gerhart did more than just that, outgaining Peterson against the Seahawks and providing the Vikings with an impressive one-two combo at Green Bay. Now, Frazier is looking for Gerhart to remain a factor in Sunday's game against Chicago at the Metrodome.

"I don't know if the numbers will be much more than what they were last week,'' said Frazier, who was able to give Peterson 32 carries for 146 yards against the Packers in a game Minnesota ran 79 plays. "But getting him on the field for sure with Adrian being where he is health-wise. We do need to insert him more often than we do even in the first half, not just wait until wait until the second half when Adrian gets tired or gets fatigued.''

Gerhart certainly has proven his worth before. At Stanford, Gerhart rushed for 1,871 yards as a senior in 2009 and finished second in voting for the Heisman Trophy behind Alabama running back Mark Ingram.

Late in his second year with the Vikings in 2011, Gerhart filled in admirably when Peterson was out due to injuries. He had three games of 90 or more yards rushing.

After gaining 531 yards on 109 carries for a 4.9 average in 2011, Gerhart did not have the benefit of being a free agent. So he returned to Minnesota and got just 50 carries last season while Peterson was toting it 348 times for 2,097 yards, the second most in NFL history.

Now, Frazier seems resigned to the fact it will be tough for the Vikings to keep Gerhart around. He was asked how good Gerhart would be if he were with another team and not having to play behind Peterson.

"I think he'd be a featured back,'' Gerhart said. "Whenever he's gotten an opportunity, even the year when Adrian got injured, he stepped in and played very, very well. And you see now, when Adrian's not on the field and he gets his chance, he does extremely well. He's a good back and one of the best teammates you could ever ask for. He's not one of those guys who complains about being a backup to Adrian.''

Yes, Gerhart has kept a good attitude serving as Peterson's understudy four years. But one gets the feeling those days soon will be over.

Follow Chris Tomasson at twitter.com/christomasson
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:ph34r:

Peterson's injury can only be good news for Toby. Gives him a chance to go out there and get extended playing time with fresh legs against tired defenses. The stats are crazy good and not a true reflection of what he would do over a 16 game season, but it's surely going to provide a boost to his market value in free agency.

 
I don't think he is going to be signed for big bucks in free agency. He is not a 3 down back IMO, her an block on passing downs but he doesn't offer much as an extra set of hands.

He is an average NFL RB IMO, nothing more.

 
Ministry of Pain said:
I don't think he is going to be signed for big bucks in free agency. He is not a 3 down back IMO, her an block on passing downs but he doesn't offer much as an extra set of hands.

He is an average NFL RB IMO, nothing more.
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Big bucks? No, of course not. He will get a few million per season. Maybe somewhere between what Mendy and Greene got.

He actually catches the ball quite well. He played center field for Stanford's baseball team. Guy can move around a little bit.

Average NFL RB is hard to say. I think once you get past the top class of runners in the league there's a pretty large population of guys with comparable talent. Call them serviceable. The key ingredient with these players is opportunity. Are Zac Stacy, Knowshon Moreno, and LeVeon Bell putting up useful numbers because they're great talents or because they're average backs in favorable situations where they get 15-20 touches per game? I would lean towards the latter. Assuming that a player has a certain minimum level of talent (which Gerhart almost certainly does), all he needs to be useful in FF is the workload. What separates Gerhart from comparable talents right now in the dynasty landscape is the immediate prospect of him changing teams. With most backup guys like Mike James, Bryce Brown, Brandon Bolden, or Bernard Pierce you need to hope for an injury or a personnel move to make them relevant. With Gerhart you just have to hope that somebody like Cleveland, Oakland, or Jacksonville likes him enough to give him a modest contract and an opportunity. I don't think it's a stretch.

 
http://fansided.com/2014/03/08/nfl-rumors-vikings-chances-keeping-free-agent-toby-gerhart-pretty-low/#!y15Lx

The Minnesota Vikings might be looking for a new back up running back for Adrian Peterson. Vikings fullback Jerome Felton isn’t counting on Toby Gerhart returning.

“Probably pretty low,” Felton said, via the St. Paul Pioneer Press. “Just having played behind Adrian (Peterson), I assume he wants to go somewhere where he can get more touches.

“I’ve texted Toby a little bit. I think there’s going to be a lot of interest in him. I just told him good luck and don’t forget about us when he’s signed his big contract. … I hope he gets in a situation where he has a chance to shine.”
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:ph34r:

Free agency opens on the 11th. You've still got a couple days to get your offers in for Gerhart if you're looking for a cheap-ish depth play at RB.

Currently ranked as the 68th dynasty RB on Dynasty League Football. That number could jump 40-45 spots in a week with a good destination.

 
If you stashed or held Gerhart, you did so with an eye toward March 11. I doubt anyone lets him go on the cheap without seeing where he lands at this point.

 
EBF said:
Currently ranked as the 68th dynasty RB on Dynasty League Football. That number could jump 40-45 spots in a week with a good destination.
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Not happening. You'd pretty much need to be signed to be a starter to be RB 18-23 and no one is signing this guy to be their starting RB. He has zero chance of taking that kind of leap in the next week. At best a good landing spot might see him jump 20-25 spots. To take the kind of leap you suggest he'd need to be projected as an opening day starter and that won't happen by design. If he ends up being any teams opening day starter it's because plan A failed.

 
Some highlights from 2013:

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-fantasy/0ap2000000295474/RB-Gerhart-41-yd-run-TD

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-fantasy/0ap2000000295255/RB-Gerhart-21-yd-run

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-fantasy/0ap2000000287674/RB-Gerhart-26-yd-run

There aren't a lot of backs walking around the league who are 6'0" 230 with 4.50 speed and hands. He has really good acceleration to the hole. Good balance and power. On the downside, he's not elusive in the second level of the defense and has a pretty violent running style.

Fun trivia fact: He had 4 runs of 20+ yards last season on just 36 carries. Eddie Lacy had 3 on 284 carries. LeVeon Bell had 4 on 244 carries.

 
He will be a buy low for the rest of his career.

Any team that signs him will be looking to replace him every year...

I would not give up anything meaningful for him.

 
menobrown said:
Not happening. You'd pretty much need to be signed to be a starter to be RB 18-23 and no one is signing this guy to be their starting RB. He has zero chance of taking that kind of leap in the next week. At best a good landing spot might see him jump 20-25 spots. To take the kind of leap you suggest he'd need to be projected as an opening day starter and that won't happen by design. If he ends up being any teams opening day starter it's because plan A failed.
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Impossible to say without knowing what teams are thinking behind close doors. There's a perception in the FF community that he's a dime-a-dozen scrub, but I don't know how accurate that is. He was a high pick. He has played well in limited duty. He has a versatile skill set with some plus traits. How would signing him to be the frontrunner for your starting job be any worse than using a 2nd-3rd round pick on someone like Lacy, Bell, Hyde, Hill, or Mason with the same goal?

If I'm Oakland or Jacksonville and I can get him for cheap, I'd rather let him babysit my RB spot for a couple years and use my draft picks on premium positions than draft a comparable talent in the 2nd-3rd round. I think maybe because he has been stuck behind Peterson all these years people have forgotten that when he came into the league he was regarded approximately with the same degree of optimism that guys like Hyde and Sankey are today.

Clearly he's not a Peterson/MJD/McCoy/Charles level talent. I see no clear distinction between him and the next class down though.

 
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I did see an article that mentioned that his wife and family were ok with him backing up Peterson for decent money and retiring healthy...sounds like he has a good head on his shoulders and will not necessarily get a starting gig just to get one.

People do forget that he was a center fielder on the Stanford baseball team, so he isn't just a bruiser who can't run...

 
http://min.scout.com/2/1377185.html

A player the Vikings would like to keep is a player they traded up to get even though it was clear he would only be a starter based on injury. It was akin to the Baltimore Orioles drafting a shortstop or the Packers drafting a quarterback during the Ripken/Favre eras, respectively.

Toby Gerhart will be a free agent and, seeing that he plays behind the NFLs top running back, the Vikings arent going to pay market value to keep him. Given he had just 36 carries last season, teams that would be interested in Gerhart have to roll the dice on being a power back that could be part of a legitimate platoon situation.

If the Vikings cant keep Gerhart, these are the teams that could make Gerhart a star. There are 12 teams likely to be in competition if the Vikings want to re-sign Gerhart at a hometown discount. All they need is one team to put a wrench in that plan.

1. Cleveland The Browns made one of the smartest moves of 2013 by off-loading sloth-like RB Trent Richardson for a first-round pick. Gerhart could step in as Tommy Vardell 2.0.

2. Oakland Darren McFadden (a.k.a. Limp DMC) and Rashad Jennings have longstanding injury histories and the Raiders have a penchant to offer a big contract on anticipation of big things. Going back to Cali sweetens the pot.

3. Arizona Rashard Mendenhall led the Cards in rushing last year. Enough said.

4. Atlanta The Falcons signed Steven Jackson last year to be a running option for a pass-first offense. He broke down and the rest was history. He fits what they envisioned Jackson to be.

5. Tennessee Chris Johnson is due $8 million and, if the Titans make a business decision, Gerhart could step into training camp as the No. 1 back on the depth chart.

6. New England He fits the bill of what Bill likes.

7. Miami Daniel Thomas is a lost cause. The Dolphins cant trust Lamar Miller. Opportunity is what makes a star and Miami has an opportunity waiting to happen.

8. NY Giants With David Wilson a big question mark for 2014 and known fumbler Andre Brown a free agent, the old-school G-Men could give Gerhart a legitimate chance to be a workhorse.

9. Baltimore Ray Rices future is in doubt for his production on the field and behavior off of it, and Ozzie Newsome is a solid talent evaluator. For the game the Ravens play, Gerhart could be a gift.

10. Cincinnati BenJarvus Green-Ellis has been the featured power back the last two years, but Gerhart fills the Rudi Johnson role better than any free agent on the market. But he may not be willing to play second fiddle to Gio Bernard, who is the future in Cincy.

11. Jacksonville Maurice Jones-Drew is a free agent, but any player willing to sign with the 2014 Jags is just in it for the money.

12. New York Jets Chris Ivory isnt an every-down back. Gerhart might fit in, but would be better with the Giants than the Jets.

With an average of less than three touches a game, Gerhart shouldnt have a big market in front of him. But dont be shocked if Gerhart gets an offer that blows the Vikings out of the water. Too many teams can use him and all you need are two teams to create a bidding war.
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2 cents. I don't think Toby will be a hot commodity unless a crafty team is after him for cheap. He's just been too hidden. If your team lands Gerhart, you should be happy. He could be a stud in Atl, Mia or Cle. He'd have no roster pressure for carries. Splitting carries with Ellington or Gio wouldn't be fun for FF
 
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I think "Toby" will get into a situation where he gets more regular touches than he did with the Vikings (not hard), but I would be surprised if he gets signed into a situation/dollar amount that makes him more than bye fill-in, occasional starter barring injuries/busts. not a terrible player or anything, but he has just been okay when Peterson has been injured.

 
My gut call is New York Giants. He's Andre Brown with better versatility and durability. Also seems to fit the mold of a Coughlin guy.

Never really know though. The league is weird. Just look at Tennessee paying pretty big money to Greene last year. Wouldn't have predicted that.

He could end up as a Raven or Chief or some other totally random spot.

Nowhere to go but up though. Being stuck behind Peterson is about the worst spot for a RB in the league.

 
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