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***Official 2014 World Cup Thread*** (1 Viewer)

by hidden I meant their names inside the balls with no one being able to see them.
Wait, what? If I watch this from work on Friday, what am I actually going to see? Is there going to be a gradual unfolding of events as each team gets placed in a group, or is it just gonna be an announcement of what happened?

 
I do think the US makes out. Yeah, it's slightly more likely that they end up in a group where they are clearly the 4th best team.

But I think it's less likely they end up in a group where they are clearly the 3rd best team. And consequently more likely they are drawn in a group where they have a legitimate chance to be the 2nd best team (keeping in mind that I think 12-30 is pretty much a toss-up most of the time).

 
They can just use different colored balls to distinguish Brazil/the euro team.. or they'll just skip group a until they put brazil in it

-QG

 
Nobody's sleeping on Belgium. Considering this is their first major competition since 2002, I think it's kind of amazing that they're the first team everyone mentions as a Dark Horse after the usual suspects (Brazil, Spain, Netherlands, Italy, Argentina, Germany).

Belgium is talented, but so are a lot of teams that I'd put in that same general level (France, Portugal, pretty much every Comnebol team except Ecuador). After that, it's a total crapshoot between the rest of the European teams, the two best Asian teams, the three best African teams and probably the US and Mexico. Maybe we consider England at one end of that spectrum and South Korea at another, but i think they're pretty even.

 
Good call QG66 on the 9 team pot and good analysis, but I also think you may be selling France short. For me they are definitely in the top half of pot 4 and could be on par with Holland and Italy by next summer when the young guys (Pogba, Varane, Sakho) are a bit older. They imploded in S. Africa and were shaky in qualification, but the roster is loaded with class. Looking at Pot 4, Holland and Italy are the only teams I'd fear more.

 
by hidden I meant their names inside the balls with no one being able to see them.
Wait, what? If I watch this from work on Friday, what am I actually going to see? Is there going to be a gradual unfolding of events as each team gets placed in a group, or is it just gonna be an announcement of what happened?
Imagine watching the NFL draft, but with Pele and Miss BunBun hosting.

 
They can just use different colored balls to distinguish Brazil/the euro team.. or they'll just skip group a until they put brazil in it

-QG
Here is how I would do the draw (FIFA may do it differently).

First, put Brazil on the board in Group A, then put balls representing Groups B-H in the bin. Go through the remaining seeds and draw the group. Belgium gets Group C or whatever.

Next put all Group 4 teams in the bin and draw one name. Remove all other names and put balls representing the groups with Comnebol seeds in the bin. Group A, GroupD, Group E and Group H maybe. Draw a group. The pot 4 team goes there. Now add all remaining groups (Group B, C, F, and G) to the bin and draw groups for the remaining Pot 2 teams until the bin is empty.

Then put all group balls in and groups for all teams in Pot 3.

Then do the same for Pot 4.

 
Detail from FIFA via ESPN:


2.Pot 1 will then be emptied beginning with Brazil; teams will be allocated to position 1 of Groups A through H sequentially
does this mean that Brazil is the only team not hidden in the draw process?
The ESPN piece makes it sounds like the Pot 1 gets drawn and places in one of the groups. Then the SA teams go back into a hidden pot where 1 gets drawn to be placed with the Euro team in Pot 2. Once the Euro team gets placed, then the rest of Pot 2 gets emptied with Ecuador and Chile getting placed in the first available Euro spot when they are drawn

BTW, having the Pot A go into the group as #1 is not ideal for the US as many of the crappier weather draws are in the 2-4 spots.

 
Sounds like it's going to take some luck for the US to not get stuck a tough group
We've argued about this in the bigger soccer thread, but I don't think that's any more true this year than in other years. The US was certainly lucky to get an easy group in 2010. But if the Europeans teams seem tougher on paper this year, then the African teams seem weaker than in years past, at least by SPI or FIFA ranking. As long as the US is in a pot with the other Concacaf and Asian teams, they'll be likely to face relatively tough groups because they can't play Honduras or Australia.

 
Detail from FIFA via ESPN:

2.Pot 1 will then be emptied beginning with Brazil; teams will be allocated to position 1 of Groups A through H sequentially
does this mean that Brazil is the only team not hidden in the draw process?
The ESPN piece makes it sounds like the Pot 1 gets drawn and places in one of the groups. Then the SA teams go back into a hidden pot where 1 gets drawn to be placed with the Euro team in Pot 2. Once the Euro team gets placed, then the rest of Pot 2 gets emptied with Ecuador and Chile getting placed in the first available Euro spot when they are drawn

BTW, having the Pot A go into the group as #1 is not ideal for the US as many of the crappier weather draws are in the 2-4 spots.
I bet the first African sides drawn will go into South American groups until the problem is resolved either way. I.E. I don't think they'll put any African side with a European seed until either both Chile and Ecuador are placed or all of Brazil/Colombia/Argentina/Uruguay havean opponent.

Traditionally the seeds are placed in position 1 so that's nothing new. I am not surprised that weather/travel issues were mitigated for the slots as well compared to the other slots

-QG

 
So what would be the weakest possible drawn group (overall not for the U.S.)?

Switzerland/Croatia/Algeria/Honduras right? Maybe the Aussies instead?

-QG

 
by hidden I meant their names inside the balls with no one being able to see them.
Wait, what? If I watch this from work on Friday, what am I actually going to see? Is there going to be a gradual unfolding of events as each team gets placed in a group, or is it just gonna be an announcement of what happened?
if you watch from work or home, you will see the following:

*A celebrity and or soccer player you may or may not have heard of is introduced

*Said person sticks his hand into a clear glass pot and swirls his hand around mixing up the balls pretending to not look

*Said person picks one ball out and hands it to the MC

*The MC cracks the ball open, and takes out a large fortune cookie sized piece of paper that reveals the country's name

*Depending upon the regional rules listed in other posts, then the procedure is repeated to see which position in the group the country will be placed

*Pan to the audience to see members of said country's entourage either smirking because they drew Iran or have the "I just got fired" look for getting drawn into the group of death

This is repeated until all 32 countries are placed

 
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by hidden I meant their names inside the balls with no one being able to see them.
Wait, what? If I watch this from work on Friday, what am I actually going to see? Is there going to be a gradual unfolding of events as each team gets placed in a group, or is it just gonna be an announcement of what happened?
It is gradual. The host team is the first team in group A after that, they draw the seeded teams into groups B-H (2nd team into group B, 3rd team into group C,etc). Then, they go to pod 2-4 and do the same however, along with drawing the teams, they are also drawn into what position in the group they have (determining the order in which they play).

 
OK, thanks. Sounds like it might be entertaining at least.
if you are a hard core fan it is extraordinarily entertaining. The amount of possible fascinating match ups based on history and other factors is really fun to watch unfold

US v Ghana

England v Argentina

England v Germany

Holland v Belgium

Brazil v Italy

Argentina v Portugal

Holland v Germany

etc

I am not sure how much entertainment value there is for a casual fan though. If you just watch the draw itself (which starts at 11:45am), it moves along pretty quickly even if it seems a little boring.

Having pot 4 go last should add to the excitement since that draw will determine the groups of death.

 
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OK, thanks. Sounds like it might be entertaining at least.
It is entertaining and nerve racking. They drag it out and the draw essentially has more say in the US getting out of group stage than most anything else. It is funny and weird to see how excited/upset fans get for a non-game.
In a way it almost feels like watching goals scored against your team when you watch the draw unfold negatively for what ever team you root for.

 
From Ian Darke, who will call every US game in the WC

The host nation never gets handed a tough group. Don't be surprised if Brazil are with Iran, Algeria and Bosnia-Herzegovina, which is about as undemanding as it can get given the quality of the overall field.

Jurgen Klinsmann's improving U.S. side find themselves lumped together in the pot of outsiders -- and that's a big negative because it means they cannot be drawn to play any of those "easier" nations.

Four years ago Bob Bradley's team, thanks to Landon Donovan's late lifesaver, topped a group that included a not very frightening England, plus Algeria and Slovenia. That was a kind draw. This one threatens to be far harder.

How would the Americans fancy Lionel Messi's Argentina, African champions Nigeria and four-time winners Italy, or the Netherlands? That would be the draw from hell. (ESPN FC's World Cup simulator cranks out all the permutations, and as youll see, its usually a grim result for the Americans.)

Mr. Klinsmann would probably settle for something like Colombia, Cameroon and Greece -- not that any of those games would be formalities.

One of the favourites will be Germany, with a squad rich in talent and perhaps now ready to deliver a first tournament win since Euro 96. But even their manager, Jogi Loew, will be praying on Friday that the Germans are not drawn alongside their bogey team Italy, who hammered them in the Euro 2012 semis.

Here's another scenario to whet the appetite: arguably the tournament's three biggest stars, Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo and Franck Ribery, could be drawn in the same group.

Many of the coaches are just as worried about the schedule and climate as their opponents. Four groups include a long flight out to the Amazon jungle to play in Manaus, which is widely believed to have been included as a venue simply to boost Brazil's tourist trade. It is not really a "football town."

That trip will be exhausting and the travel will eat into vital recovery time before the next match.

The southeast venues of Rio, Sao Paulo and Belo Horizonte look kindest, and whatever top seed falls into Group H can stay in that area where temperatures are a little milder: a plum draw.

Up in the northeast, lunchtime kickoffs in places like Recife will mean the possibility of playing in extreme heat. And yet a side might have to fly from there to play in a knockout game down south in a freezing Porto Alegre.

The U.S., for one, have planned well and Klinsmann will take his players to the training base in Sao Paulo as part of the national team's January camp.

Friday promises to be a nervy day and, by that night, we will have a clearer picture of just how this World Cup might develop. Every team will have fingers crossed for luck with the draw. But, to win the World Cup, sooner or later you have to meet and beat the best teams on the planet.

History says South American teams triumph in South America and that's why, from this long range, my very unoriginal idea of the winner is Brazil, with Argentina and Uruguay as the most obvious threats. Colombia carry attacking menace with Falcao & Co., but look a little too erratic.

Holders Spain, plus Germany, will fly the flag for Europe, with a progressive Italy, who looked good at the Confederations Cup, possibly causing a shock.

England travel with low expectations but with hope that a new wave of good youngsters will blend well with Wayne Rooney and Steven Gerrard to give a decent account of themselves.

The very thought of it all is mouth-watering. And Friday will set the pulses racing a little quicker.

Be warned. There might be several "Groups of Death" this time.
 
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I think it's exciting. It would be great to see the US go up against Germany, Brazil or the Dutch in such a meaningful forum. I'm into it. Why not? Not like we're going to win the damn thing anyways.

 
I think it's exciting. It would be great to see the US go up against Germany, Brazil or the Dutch in such a meaningful forum. I'm into it. Why not? Not like we're going to win the damn thing anyways.
I am not concerned as much about the OR, it is the AND which scares me :)

There is very good chance you will see one of these type teams in either the group stage or if the US is lucky enough to advance, you will see this in the second round. These type teams will be the typical match up assuming the US finishes second.

 
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Finally a sim I like :)


Group A: Brazil, Cote D'Ivoire, Australia, Portugal
Group B: Spain, Ghana, Japan, Bosnia-Herzegovina
Group C: Germany, Chile, Mexico, Netherlands :lmao:
Group D: Belgium, Nigeria, Costa Rica, England
Group E: Argentina, Russia, Iran, Italy
Group F: Switzerland, Ecuador, USA, Croatia :pickle:
Group G: Colombia, Algeria, Honduras, France
Group H: Uruguay, Cameroon, South Korea, Greece

-QG
 
Got out the trusty excel sheet to crunch some numbers :nerd:

Not counting the slotting of positions 2, 3, and 4 or the actual placing of the groups B through H, in the group stages, there are 5,760 4,608 valid potential World Cup Groups that could be drawn.

For the USA, there are 720 576 different possible groups that can be drawn into.

I'll fix these numbers later to get the real total of different possibilities :)

-QG

 
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Bottom line: This likely isn't going to be pretty folks. And I swear if Mexico comes out of this with a cake draw, Graham Zusi may be dead to me (until he scores a late winner next summer)
The only thing I cling to is when Mexico inevitably gets further than we do, that we can always say they would not have made it with out the US bailing them out. Their fans detest that thought :)

 
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My turn!

Switzerland, Chile, USA, Greece :excited:

Uruguay, Algeria, USA, Bosnia :towelwave:

Spain, Algeria, USA, Italy :mellow:

Switzerland, Cameroon, USA, Croatia :hifive:

Argentina, Cameroon, USA, Netherlands :X

 

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