Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
***Official 2014 World Cup Thread*** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter NewlyRetired
- Start date
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
I have only seen them play a bit this cycle so I am unfamiliar with them. What makes you say this?
The Gator
Footballguy
They are very sound defensively and always seem to play 10 guys behind the ball. I think we'll have a very tough time breaking them down and 3 points from that game will be unlikely.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
That is certainly their modus operandi against clearly better opponents but I have a feeling they will be looking at the US as a must 3 points and will have to come out of their shell.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I just got a group of Brazil, France, Italy, Mexico
Also got Germany, Italy, Chile, USA
Also got Germany, Italy, Chile, USA
The Gator
Footballguy
Mjolnirs
Footballguy
So, kind of like early CONCACAF qualifying.
The Gator
Footballguy
Steve Tasker
Footballguy
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Help me out here, mathguys. I'm starting a very small WC pool - will either be random draw or serpentine drafting (I prefer the latter) of teams until all teams are assigned. Scoring (here's where I need a little help) :
Group stage - 1 point for a draw, 3 for a win for each team.
Knockout round 1 - ___________ pts for a win
Knockout round 2 - ___________ pts for a win
Semifinals - _____________ pts for a win
Finals - _____________ pts for a win
What do you think are the right point values to assign to those blank spots in order to ensure that whoever draws/picks Brazil (or whoever ultimately wins) doesn't automatically roll through the thing? By the same token, I don't want the knockout rounds to be virtually irrelevant if someone has built up a big lead in the group stage. By doing so, that person would clearly have the most sides participating in the knockout stages anyway, so I'd like to at least have the possibility exist that someone could catch up and everyone doesn't lose interest after the round-robin portion. And yes, I understand that I've been somewhat contradictory here.
Basically, just want a good balance between early and late round results like most decent NCAA pools have (I use seed x round to determine points awarded for a win.) This is tougher, though, because there are no numeric seeds to speak of (and I don't much want to assign them) and no two participants can ever have a stake in the same team.
Group stage - 1 point for a draw, 3 for a win for each team.
Knockout round 1 - ___________ pts for a win
Knockout round 2 - ___________ pts for a win
Semifinals - _____________ pts for a win
Finals - _____________ pts for a win
What do you think are the right point values to assign to those blank spots in order to ensure that whoever draws/picks Brazil (or whoever ultimately wins) doesn't automatically roll through the thing? By the same token, I don't want the knockout rounds to be virtually irrelevant if someone has built up a big lead in the group stage. By doing so, that person would clearly have the most sides participating in the knockout stages anyway, so I'd like to at least have the possibility exist that someone could catch up and everyone doesn't lose interest after the round-robin portion. And yes, I understand that I've been somewhat contradictory here.
Basically, just want a good balance between early and late round results like most decent NCAA pools have (I use seed x round to determine points awarded for a win.) This is tougher, though, because there are no numeric seeds to speak of (and I don't much want to assign them) and no two participants can ever have a stake in the same team.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
EG, on the off chance you might want to consider a non draft (ie treat it more like an NCAA hoop pool where everyone picks the result of every game), check out this post, it has worked well the last two WC's for us. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=699418&p=16241292Help me out here, mathguys. I'm starting a very small WC pool - will either be random draw or serpentine drafting (I prefer the latter) of teams until all teams are assigned. Scoring (here's where I need a little help) :
Group stage - 1 point for a draw, 3 for a win for each team.
Knockout round 1 - ___________ pts for a win
Knockout round 2 - ___________ pts for a win
Semifinals - _____________ pts for a win
Finals - _____________ pts for a win
What do you think are the right point values to assign to those blank spots in order to ensure that whoever draws/picks Brazil (or whoever ultimately wins) doesn't automatically roll through the thing? By the same token, I don't want the knockout rounds to be virtually irrelevant if someone has built up a big lead in the group stage. By doing so, that person would clearly have the most sides participating in the knockout stages anyway, so I'd like to at least have the possibility exist that someone could catch up and everyone doesn't lose interest after the round-robin portion. And yes, I understand that I've been somewhat contradictory here.
Basically, just want a good balance between early and late round results like most decent NCAA pools have (I use seed x round to determine points awarded for a win.) This is tougher, though, because there are no numeric seeds to speak of (and I don't much want to assign them) and no two participants can ever have a stake in the same team.
Last edited by a moderator:
Area51Inhabitant
Footballguy
I saw all 4 of Greece's matches during UEFA 2012 and didn't exactly come away fearful of their talent level. They did advance past the group stage but they were extremely lucky to do so. The final group stage match vs Russia they were completely dominated and only snuck by 1-0 because the Russians completely botched a throw in and let Greece get a point blank scoring chance right before halftime. I actually think this would be a very good matchup for the US. They would be able to get a good amount of possession and would likely be able to play the majority of the match in the offensive zone.
CBusAlex
Footballguy
Group stage - 1 point for a draw, 3 for a win for each team.
Knockout round 1 - 6 pts for a win
Knockout round 2 - 9 pts for a win
Semifinals - 12 pts for a win
Finals - 15 pts for a win
There are 48 first-round games, which means anywhere from 96 to 144 points in the first round, depending on how many draws there are. To keep things interesting in the knockout stages without giving an overwhelming advantage to the eventual winner, you probably want to have the available points be somewhere in that range. This setup has 123 (48 round 1, 36 round 2, 24 round 3, 15 final).
Ramsay Hunt Experience
Footballguy
The only think I might add is a point per goals scored. Probably wouldn't make a difference, but it's nice to have some reward for entertaining play.
Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
Looking at Pot 4, Greece is probably the team I'd want to face the most, which is more of a commentary on the other options. I'd be good with Greece or Croatia, I'd be OK (not happy, but OK) with Bosnia, Russia or England all things considered, would rather avoid France and Portugal, and obviously Italy or Netherlands would be a disaster draw.
Last edited by a moderator:
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
If you are looking to not give an overwhelming advantage to the winner, you could also assign some points for the 3rd place game that might help balance. Of course if you do that, you may need to give some points to the loser of the finals since it is not fair that the winner of the 3rd place game gets points and the loser of the final does not.CBusAlex said:
Ramsay Hunt Experience
Footballguy
I think I'd want to face Greece just for the chance to make jokes about Samaras looking like Jesus.
I don't think Greece were really all that stingy in qualifying. They certainly seemed to play open enough in the playoff against Romania. I'm not even sure they still play the same 3 man/5 man backline system.
There's no Slovenia out of Europe this year (the Charlie Brown jerseys will be missed), so there's not a European team that I'd lick my chops to play, but Greece is one of those you should reasonably expect to beat if you consider yourself a knockout round team.
I don't think Greece were really all that stingy in qualifying. They certainly seemed to play open enough in the playoff against Romania. I'm not even sure they still play the same 3 man/5 man backline system.
There's no Slovenia out of Europe this year (the Charlie Brown jerseys will be missed), so there's not a European team that I'd lick my chops to play, but Greece is one of those you should reasonably expect to beat if you consider yourself a knockout round team.
charvik
Footballguy
I hate to be a downer, but I don't expect the US to advance to the knockout stages unless they get a very favorable draw. I have been less than impressed with the US team in the games I have seen where they have been forced to control games. Against "better" opponents I can see them doing fairly ok with a defensive system, hoping to keep a clean sheet and counter or take advantage of set pieces.
For my money, a draw that includes one or more teams that consider themselves superior, and willing to control the play, would be much more advantageous. I would prefer teams like England and Italy, over teams like Greece. I can see those teams struggle to score while being vulnerable from counter attacks.
Maybe I haven't seen enough of the US games, but I don't see a strong midfield that can control the ball, the pace of the game and feed the attackers on a regular basis. I don't see attackers/forwards with a knack to put the ball in the net on every touch and a suspect back line. The only position I consider strong would be goal tending.
What am I missing?
For my money, a draw that includes one or more teams that consider themselves superior, and willing to control the play, would be much more advantageous. I would prefer teams like England and Italy, over teams like Greece. I can see those teams struggle to score while being vulnerable from counter attacks.
Maybe I haven't seen enough of the US games, but I don't see a strong midfield that can control the ball, the pace of the game and feed the attackers on a regular basis. I don't see attackers/forwards with a knack to put the ball in the net on every touch and a suspect back line. The only position I consider strong would be goal tending.
What am I missing?
Last edited by a moderator:
Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
How would everyone rank the teams in the three non-US pots in terms of most desirable opponent to least desirable? Here' s mine:
Seeds:
Switzerland (obvious choice)
Belgium (on par with Colombia, but S American teams get the edge in a Brazil cup)
Colombia
Spain (see 2009 confed cup)
Uruguay (again, edge to S American teams this year)
Germany (a much much better version of JK's US style)
Argentina (no thanks)
Brazil (oof)
Pot 2:
Algeria
Cameroon (would love either of these two)
Nigeria
Ecuador
Ivory Coast
Chile
Ghana (please not again)
Pot 4:
Greece
Croatia
Bosnia
Russia
England
France
Portugal
Netherlands
Italy
Seeds:
Switzerland (obvious choice)
Belgium (on par with Colombia, but S American teams get the edge in a Brazil cup)
Colombia
Spain (see 2009 confed cup)
Uruguay (again, edge to S American teams this year)
Germany (a much much better version of JK's US style)
Argentina (no thanks)
Brazil (oof)
Pot 2:
Algeria
Cameroon (would love either of these two)
Nigeria
Ecuador
Ivory Coast
Chile
Ghana (please not again)
Pot 4:
Greece
Croatia
Bosnia
Russia
England
France
Portugal
Netherlands
Italy
The Gator
Footballguy
charvik
Footballguy
Seed group:
I expect Brazil, Germany and Spain to handle a US team with ease, considering their immense talent advantage. I think Uruguay and Argentina would be a tough opponent in SA, and especially with their scoring advantages. Switzerland, Columbia and Belgium would be teams that the US could beat 25% of the time, draw 50%.
Ramsay Hunt Experience
Footballguy
I think what most people are thinking is that this team is probably objectively better than the equivalent team in 2010. In 2010, our CM pairing was a younger Michael Bradley and either Maurice Edu or Ricardo Clark. Now, it's a mature Bradley and Jermaine Jones (two CL caliber CMs) with Geoff Cameron in reserve. I think we assume that Jozy is better and that Aron Johanssonn is a more capable second striker than we had in 2010 (keeping in mind that we'll still play Dempsey in the hole either way).I hate to be a downer, but I don't expect the US to advance to the knockout stages unless they get a very favorable draw. I have been less than impressed with the US team in the games I have seen where they have been forced to control games. Against "better" opponents I can see them doing fairly ok with a defensive system, hoping to keep a clean sheet and counter or take advantage of set pieces.
For my money, a draw that includes one or more teams that consider themselves superior, and willing to control the play, would be much more advantageous. I would prefer teams like England and Italy, over teams like Greece. I can see those teams struggle to score while being vulnerable from counter attacks.
Maybe I haven't seen enough of the US games, but I don't see a strong midfield that can control the ball, the pace of the game and feed the attackers on a regular basis. I don't see attackers/forwards with a knack to put the ball in the net on every touch and a suspect back line. The only position I consider strong would be goal tending.
I think we assume that no matter how bad our LB is, he can't be worse than Bornstein. Now, there are areas where we're worse off. Donovan and Dempsey are older (but our depth is much better in those positions than in 2010). We don't have a RB in the same zip code of quality as Cherundolo in 2010. That's a problem. And our CBs could be a strength or a weakness. They're young and relatively unproven, but talented.
Of course, we got an easy draw in 2010. And maybe we got lucky in 2002. But I think the reason why we're looking to get in the knock out rounds is the same reason why most teams in the vast middle of World Cup caliber teams are. Because it's a crap shoot. You can't say that Greece or Croatia is objectively any better than the US. Or Cameroon. Or Ecuador. All of these types of teams have holes.
charvik
Footballguy
I'm waiting on the 2nd pot (mostly because it's a must 3pt game, no matter the opponent), but I feel I have a good grasp of this group. Russia, Netherland, Portugal and to some extent France I feel are superior to the US squad, and they would be challenged to get a point from either one, unless they catch them on a bad day. I think the US can draw Greece, Bosnia and Croatia with the right system executed well, and maybe a 10% chance of getting a win on the counter or set pieces.
I like the US chances against both Italy and England, as I feel they are both overrated, and might struggle to break down a back tracking US team. A draw is definitely a strong possibility, and a win could happen.
Ramsay Hunt Experience
Footballguy
I'll do the ranking thing pot by pot. I think it's pointless to try to draw too fine a distinction, though, so I generally break each pot into three caliber of opponents: WOOHOO!, Could be Worse, and Gulp! Keep in mind that all this is in the context of the rest of the group. I don't think Switzerland is a "bad" team. They're just Spain.
So, Pot 1:
WOOHOO!
Switzerland -- 'nuff said
Could be Worse
Uruguay -- Great strikers, not much in midfield, aging defenders
Belgium -- No holes, but little experience and I wonder about fitness
Colombia (spelled properly for Andy) -- I love their pieces in attack and midfield. But Colombia has a tendency to implode. I know nothing about their defenders, to be frank.
Yikes!
Spain -- Probably have more holes than some of the ones I rate less highly, but when you've won the last 3 major championships, I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt.
Brazil -- Played well at the Confed Cup. Neymar is a special talent. And home field is no joke. Still think they lack proven goal scorers and discipline at the back. How will they handle the expectations?
Germany-- Most complete team top to bottom in the field, IMO. Maybe a question of who is the true #9 if Gomez and Klose are past their best. Only real strike I see is the whole European team thing.
Argentina- Finally have a coach who isn't just trying to cram all the offensive talent into a jury rigged system. Maybe lack a bit of the quality at the back that Germany have. Just have a feeling that this will be Messi's Mardonna moment.
So, Pot 1:
WOOHOO!
Switzerland -- 'nuff said
Could be Worse
Uruguay -- Great strikers, not much in midfield, aging defenders
Belgium -- No holes, but little experience and I wonder about fitness
Colombia (spelled properly for Andy) -- I love their pieces in attack and midfield. But Colombia has a tendency to implode. I know nothing about their defenders, to be frank.
Yikes!
Spain -- Probably have more holes than some of the ones I rate less highly, but when you've won the last 3 major championships, I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt.
Brazil -- Played well at the Confed Cup. Neymar is a special talent. And home field is no joke. Still think they lack proven goal scorers and discipline at the back. How will they handle the expectations?
Germany-- Most complete team top to bottom in the field, IMO. Maybe a question of who is the true #9 if Gomez and Klose are past their best. Only real strike I see is the whole European team thing.
Argentina- Finally have a coach who isn't just trying to cram all the offensive talent into a jury rigged system. Maybe lack a bit of the quality at the back that Germany have. Just have a feeling that this will be Messi's Mardonna moment.
Ramsay Hunt Experience
Footballguy
Pot 2!
Woohoo!
Algeria -- we have to be able to beat Algeria
Cameroon -- Not the strongest indomitable lions team anymore
Ecuador -- The Switzerland of Comnebol. You're not in Quinto anymore, guys.
Could Be Worse
Ivory Coast -- Tons of talent. Never gets results. Not great at finding complementary players. Tend to surround Toure with other Toure types. Some key players are past their prime.
Nigeria -- Lots of talent, but they're young. The confederation is a mess. Rely on John Obi Mikel to pull strings in midfield. A good player, but not, IMO demonstably better than Bradley.
Ghana -- Historically the best coached African team. MIght be caught a bit between generations. Young, better players from the youth ranks may be blocked by guys who shouldn't be blocking them.
Yikes!
Chile -- Excellent side, as displayed by a thrashing of England. I have nightmares of what a winger like Alexis can do to our fullbacks.
Scary European Team to Be Named Later -- Essentially any of the top 4 teams from pot 4.
Woohoo!
Algeria -- we have to be able to beat Algeria
Cameroon -- Not the strongest indomitable lions team anymore
Ecuador -- The Switzerland of Comnebol. You're not in Quinto anymore, guys.
Could Be Worse
Ivory Coast -- Tons of talent. Never gets results. Not great at finding complementary players. Tend to surround Toure with other Toure types. Some key players are past their prime.
Nigeria -- Lots of talent, but they're young. The confederation is a mess. Rely on John Obi Mikel to pull strings in midfield. A good player, but not, IMO demonstably better than Bradley.
Ghana -- Historically the best coached African team. MIght be caught a bit between generations. Young, better players from the youth ranks may be blocked by guys who shouldn't be blocking them.
Yikes!
Chile -- Excellent side, as displayed by a thrashing of England. I have nightmares of what a winger like Alexis can do to our fullbacks.
Scary European Team to Be Named Later -- Essentially any of the top 4 teams from pot 4.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
I did see that and like it, but a couple of these guys are hyper casual fans and are way more likely to get into something luck-based than skill based. Kind of the same theory behind many office football pools using straight-up winners only instead of point spreads.NewlyRetired said:EG, on the off chance you might want to consider a non draft (ie treat it more like an NCAA hoop pool where everyone picks the result of every game), check out this post, it has worked well the last two WC's for us.http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=699418&p=16241292Evilgrin 72 said:Help me out here, mathguys. I'm starting a very small WC pool - will either be random draw or serpentine drafting (I prefer the latter) of teams until all teams are assigned. Scoring (here's where I need a little help) :
Group stage - 1 point for a draw, 3 for a win for each team.
Knockout round 1 - ___________ pts for a win
Knockout round 2 - ___________ pts for a win
Semifinals - _____________ pts for a win
Finals - _____________ pts for a win
What do you think are the right point values to assign to those blank spots in order to ensure that whoever draws/picks Brazil (or whoever ultimately wins) doesn't automatically roll through the thing? By the same token, I don't want the knockout rounds to be virtually irrelevant if someone has built up a big lead in the group stage. By doing so, that person would clearly have the most sides participating in the knockout stages anyway, so I'd like to at least have the possibility exist that someone could catch up and everyone doesn't lose interest after the round-robin portion. And yes, I understand that I've been somewhat contradictory here.
Basically, just want a good balance between early and late round results like most decent NCAA pools have (I use seed x round to determine points awarded for a win.) This is tougher, though, because there are no numeric seeds to speak of (and I don't much want to assign them) and no two participants can ever have a stake in the same team.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
That's the exact set of numbers I came up with in the shower this morning. You and I think exactly alike, at least when I am nude and sudsy. Thanks, man.CBusAlex said:
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
That's pretty cool.. I might use this.Ramsay Hunt Experience said:
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
Nothing really. I think most of us feel the same way.
I rate the US midfield better than you do though. Jones, Donovan, Fab and Bradley, while two are a little old, are certainly a solid group.
As Scooby always correctly points out the US is in the same position as probably 22 other countries. Pray for a non death group and scrape and claw to get into the second round.
Don't forget that while we are going to be cringing as we see the draw go by, there are not a lot of knowledgeable fans who are going to be happy to see the US get dropped into their group from pot 3.
Last edited by a moderator:
Ramsay Hunt Experience
Footballguy
Even Moses Malone knows that it's all about Pot Fo' Fo' Fo'
Woohoo!
Greece -- Well coached. Have talented European based players up and down the roster. No stars.
Croatia -- Modric and Mandzucic are excellent. Still think they can be marked out of the game. Physical hold up striker is actually something I think Gonzo is well suited to deal with.
Russia -- Seem, to me, to be a bit old. Did win their group easily. I'm not convinced.
Bosnia -- Great in attack. Dzeko will be a handful. Even assumning they were missing defenders in Sarajevo when they played the US, that side of the ball seems weak.
Could Be Worse
England -- On one hand, I can envision a scenario where England has all the tools. Sturridge up top and in form. Rooney playing Rooney can. Gerrard and Wilshere in CM. Any number of pacy wing options. Even a Joe Hart with PTSD is better than Robert Greene. But I can also see the potential problems. Gerrard wilting in the heat. Welbeck or Sturridege not being ready for prime time. CBs who are good, but a far bit away from prime Rio/Terry partnership. Cole being maybe a year past his best. I think Hodgson has tons of options, with some intriguing young players. And I don't know if he can have the guts to use them. I think they're a fascinating team.
Portugal -- OK, nobody wants anything to do with Ronaldo. Or, for that matter, the magical Jaoa Moutinho (who I think is the most underrated player in the world). Back four is solid. Still, in this pot, any team starting Raul Meireles and Helder Postiga is not a "Yikes".
France -- Could be the deepest team in the tourney save for Germany. But they always seem capable of an implosion. Lots of egos and guys who don't like each other. Koscielny always seems to have an awful tackle in him. Don't play to Loris' strengths the way Spurs do (no super high line). Make no mistake, nobody wants them in their group, but it could be worse.
Yikes:
Italy -- I just think Prandelli maximizes their talent. Not the most talented Italian team and it's unclear who should play with Balotelli. My favorite fullback play in the field, though.
Netherlands -- Scary team, but perhaps one that is also in between generations. Will Strootman play CM? I don't know. Will Robben cut inside? I have a bit more of a clue on that one. RvP is another candidate for an international megastar casual fan breakout star.
Woohoo!
Greece -- Well coached. Have talented European based players up and down the roster. No stars.
Croatia -- Modric and Mandzucic are excellent. Still think they can be marked out of the game. Physical hold up striker is actually something I think Gonzo is well suited to deal with.
Russia -- Seem, to me, to be a bit old. Did win their group easily. I'm not convinced.
Bosnia -- Great in attack. Dzeko will be a handful. Even assumning they were missing defenders in Sarajevo when they played the US, that side of the ball seems weak.
Could Be Worse
England -- On one hand, I can envision a scenario where England has all the tools. Sturridge up top and in form. Rooney playing Rooney can. Gerrard and Wilshere in CM. Any number of pacy wing options. Even a Joe Hart with PTSD is better than Robert Greene. But I can also see the potential problems. Gerrard wilting in the heat. Welbeck or Sturridege not being ready for prime time. CBs who are good, but a far bit away from prime Rio/Terry partnership. Cole being maybe a year past his best. I think Hodgson has tons of options, with some intriguing young players. And I don't know if he can have the guts to use them. I think they're a fascinating team.
Portugal -- OK, nobody wants anything to do with Ronaldo. Or, for that matter, the magical Jaoa Moutinho (who I think is the most underrated player in the world). Back four is solid. Still, in this pot, any team starting Raul Meireles and Helder Postiga is not a "Yikes".
France -- Could be the deepest team in the tourney save for Germany. But they always seem capable of an implosion. Lots of egos and guys who don't like each other. Koscielny always seems to have an awful tackle in him. Don't play to Loris' strengths the way Spurs do (no super high line). Make no mistake, nobody wants them in their group, but it could be worse.
Yikes:
Italy -- I just think Prandelli maximizes their talent. Not the most talented Italian team and it's unclear who should play with Balotelli. My favorite fullback play in the field, though.
Netherlands -- Scary team, but perhaps one that is also in between generations. Will Strootman play CM? I don't know. Will Robben cut inside? I have a bit more of a clue on that one. RvP is another candidate for an international megastar casual fan breakout star.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
So I plugged and chugged some numbers to get the percentage chance of particular draws for the US in terms of the composition of their group as a whole. There's an equal chance for any of the 24 teams in pots 1, 2, and 4 to be drawn in with us (1/8) but there's a different probability for different compositions due to the way the groups have to be composed.
Odds are for a specific combo meeting the criteria.
1) Specific Euro Seed, Specific South American Non-Seed, Specific Euro Pot 4 team. 1 in 288 (0.3472%) 1/4 chance overall of such a group.
2) Specific South American Seed, Specific African Team, Specific Euro Pot 4 team. 1 in 480 (0.2083%) 3/8 chance overall of such a group.
3) Specific Euro Seed, Specific African Team, Specific Euro Pot 4 team. 1 in 720 (0.1389%) 1/4 chance overall of such a group.
4) Specific South American Seed, Two Specific Euro Pot 4 teams. 1 in 1152 (0.0868%) 1/8 chance overall of such a group.
The overall probabilities are pretty elementary when you think about it. The specific cases are where the fun lies.
Let's apply what we consider the "desirables" to try to work up odds of "good" and "disastrous" draws.
Desirable Seeds: Really just Switzerland
Disaster Seeds: Brazil, Argentina, Germany, Spain
Meh Seeds (relatively): Colombia, Uruguay, Belgium
Desireable Pot 4 teams: Croatia, Greece
Disaster Seeds: Italy, Netherlands, France, Portugal
Meh Seeds (relatively): Bosnia, Russia
Desireable Pot 2 teams: Algeria, Cameroon, Ecuador
Disaster Seeds: Chile, Ivory Coast, Ghana, the disaster seeds from Pot 4
Meh Seeds (relatively) Nigeria, the meh and desirable seeds from pot 4.
Total dream draw we're looking at about 1%
Total disaster draw we're looking at about 9% chance
Will work out the combos later maybe
-QG
Odds are for a specific combo meeting the criteria.
1) Specific Euro Seed, Specific South American Non-Seed, Specific Euro Pot 4 team. 1 in 288 (0.3472%) 1/4 chance overall of such a group.
2) Specific South American Seed, Specific African Team, Specific Euro Pot 4 team. 1 in 480 (0.2083%) 3/8 chance overall of such a group.
3) Specific Euro Seed, Specific African Team, Specific Euro Pot 4 team. 1 in 720 (0.1389%) 1/4 chance overall of such a group.
4) Specific South American Seed, Two Specific Euro Pot 4 teams. 1 in 1152 (0.0868%) 1/8 chance overall of such a group.
The overall probabilities are pretty elementary when you think about it. The specific cases are where the fun lies.
Let's apply what we consider the "desirables" to try to work up odds of "good" and "disastrous" draws.
Desirable Seeds: Really just Switzerland
Disaster Seeds: Brazil, Argentina, Germany, Spain
Meh Seeds (relatively): Colombia, Uruguay, Belgium
Desireable Pot 4 teams: Croatia, Greece
Disaster Seeds: Italy, Netherlands, France, Portugal
Meh Seeds (relatively): Bosnia, Russia
Desireable Pot 2 teams: Algeria, Cameroon, Ecuador
Disaster Seeds: Chile, Ivory Coast, Ghana, the disaster seeds from Pot 4
Meh Seeds (relatively) Nigeria, the meh and desirable seeds from pot 4.
Total dream draw we're looking at about 1%
Total disaster draw we're looking at about 9% chance
Will work out the combos later maybe
-QG
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
PRESS RELEASE
Posted by Mac Nwulu on December 4, 2013
ESPN Presents Final Draw for the 2014 FIFA World Cup™
Multiplatform Coverage on U.S. TV, Digital, Radio and more
ESPN will provide comprehensive coverage of the Final Draw for the 2014 FIFA World Cup across its multimedia platforms highlighted by FIFA World Cup Draw, a two-hour live program on ESPN2 and WatchESPN on Friday, Dec. 6, beginning at 11:30 a.m. ET. Bob Ley will host, joined by analysts Michael Ballack, Alexi Lalas, Steve McManaman and Santiago Solari in ESPN’s Bristol, Conn., studio, and Taylor Twellman from Kansas City, site of the 2013 MLS Cup.
The Draw places the 32 teams who have qualified for the 2014 World Cup into eight groups consisting of four teams. The teams in each group play three matches in a round-robin phase with the top two teams from each group advancing to the round of 16 single-elimination phase.
Reporters Jeremy Schaap, John Sutcliffe and ESPN Brasil’s Rubens Pozzi, will provide live reports throughout the day from Costa do Sauípe in the Brazilian state of Bahia, where the draw will be held. Other highlights:
ESPN3, the multiscreen sports network in 85 million homes, will show the live stream of the official FIFA World Cup Draw ceremony (world feed) beginning at 11 a.m.;
SportsCenter – The daytime editions of the ESPN flagship program on Friday at 11 a.m. with Jay Crawford and Karl Ravech, and 1 p.m. show with Linda Cohn and David Lloyd, will offer live look-ins to the Final Draw in Costa do Sauípe;
#TimmyTakeover on social media – U.S. Men’s National Team goalkeeper and FIFA World Cup veteran Tim Howard will take over the @ESPN Twitter account during the Draw to provide instant reaction and comments.
ESPN Deportes, the Spanish-language sports network will offer analysis, predictions and post-Draw reactions starting at 11 a.m. Coverage will originate from ESPN’s studios in Mexico City with a roundtable of experts that includes former coach of Mexico’s National Team Ricardo La Volpe, and former soccer players Luis Roberto Alves “Zague” and Francisco Gabriel de Anda alongside José Ramón Fernández, Tony Cherchi and Ricardo Puig. Sutcliffe and Ciro Procuna will report from Brazil throughout the network’s live programming. Fernando Palomo, Andrés Agulla, Manu Martín and Tato Noriega will also contribute to the analysis from Bristol, Conn. In addition, the coverage will present live reactions and reports from ESPN’s experts and relevant soccer personalities from around the world.
ESPN Deportes Radio, the only 24/7 Spanish-language sports radio network, will present news and information programming prior to, during and after the Draw led by a special two-hour show Destino Brazil 2014 starting at 12 p.m. with the analysis, reactions and news from radio personalities Marcelo Masanti, Ricardo Mayorga, Diego Cora, Giovanni Scavia. José del Valle will join the coverage with live reports from Brazil. SportsCenter minute updates will be incorporated into the radio show with reports every 30 minutes.
ESPN FC on TV
ESPN FC, the definitive soccer studio news and information program, will air World Cup Draw specials on Thursday and Friday on ESPN2:
Thursday, Dec. 5, at 5:30 p.m. – The 30-minute program with host Dan Thomas, analysts Craig Burley, Shaka Hislop, Lalas, McManaman, Alejandro Moreno and Twellman, will preview the Draw;
Friday, Dec. 6 at 5:30 p.m. – A one-hour recap of the World Cup Draw with Thomas, Hislop, McManaman and Solari in Bristol. Kasey Keller, Moreno and Twellman join from 2013 MLS Cup site in Kansas City; reporter Gab Marcotti from Costa do Sauípe, and German football expert Rafael Honigstein from London.
FIFA World Cup Draw on ESPN2 and WatchESPN, Friday, Dec. 6, at 11:30 a.m.
In addition to commentary, news highlights and analysis, ESPN2’s live presentation of the Draw will include the following segments:
An in-depth explanation of the FIFA World Cup Final Draw – how it works and the introduction of soccer legends, generally FIFA World Cup champions and stars such as ESPN Deportes’ Mario Kempes (1978 Argentina World Cup champion), who act as draw assistants;
Before the start of the Draw, leading statistician and analyst Nate Silver, the founder of award-winning FiveThirtyEight.com, will preview the best and worst case scenarios for the U.S. Men’s National Team. Silver will also offer his post-Draw reactions;
Schaap (Draw and U.S. Men’s National Team), Sutcliffe (Mexican National Team) and Ponzi (Brazil), reports and interviews from site;
U.S. Men’s National Team defender DeMarcus Beasley;
Post-Draw interview with U.S. National Men’s Soccer Team manager Jurgen Klinsmann from Costa do Sauipe;
Sutcliffe reports on the Mexican National Team’s draw;
ESPN Brasil reporter Pozzi will react to the host nation’s draw; and
ESPN’s lead soccer commentator Ian Darke joins the program live from London.
ESPN FC Across Global Digital Platforms
Global coverage of the Final Draw for the 2014 FIFA World Cup across ESPN FC digital platforms will be closely integrated with on-air telecasts and will follow every moment of the 2014 FIFA World Cup Draw before, during and after the ceremony. Soccer fans from around the world will have access to up-to-the-minute news, highlights and analysis breaking down the results and final schedule, including:
Pre-Ceremony Coverage – This week, ESPN FC will deliver complete coverage leading up to the draw on Friday, including an in-depth look at the state of Brazil by ESPN The Magazine and ESPN.com senior writer Wright Thompson. Other stories include a look back at the 1994 draw in Las Vegas from ESPN FC’s Roger Bennett, a recap of previous “Group of Death” showdowns, and preview stories from ESPN FC’s Gabriele Marcotti, among others. Fans will also be able to vote on the best position-by-position players and view possible scenarios with ESPN FC’s World Cup Draw simulator.
Live Draw Experience featuring WatchESPN and ESPN Sync – During the draw, fans will be able to access live coverage on ESPN2 and the live world feed on ESPN3 through WatchESPN in the US or follow the event live in Spanish with ESPN Sync in the US, Mexico and select regions of Latin America. The interactive draw experience will also feature an ESPN FC reaction show from 11:50 a.m. – 1:30 p.m. ET live on ESPN’s international English language networks as well as globally online. ESPN FC’s Dan Thomas hosts featuring Nicol, Paul Mariner, Hislop, Honigstein and Moreno among the guests. Additionally, live chats with ESPN FC writers and analysts, conversations on social platforms with @ESPNFC and #FCBootroom, Facebook and more, will also be available.
Rapid Reaction – Instant news and analysis will be reported on-site by ESPN FC’s Marcotti and Fernando Duarte, ESPN Deportes’ Jorge Ramos and Damián Didonato as well as group-by-group analysis and predictions by global contributors from around the world. Perspectives from the US, Mexico, Argentina and others will also be featured.
World Cup Bracket Predictor – At the conclusion of the draw, fans will be able to immediately get in the game by signing up for ESPN FC’s bracket style challenge. Players are tasked with predicting the two winners emerging from each of the eight groups as well as filling out the knockout bracket itself. Over $3,000 in prizes will be won by the most skilled predictors that construct the best brackets.
Highlights of the game include:
Real-time scoring and deep integration with ESPN Gamecast for the latest scores and news
The ability to seamlessly make picks on the Web and mobile Web and share champion picks on social platforms
Hundreds of “Fans of Country” groups and celebrity groups for fans to compete against
Six Months Out – Beginning December 12th, ESPN FC will kick off a six month countdown to the World Cup with the debut of Power Rankings. The site will also share its predictions and what to watch in addition to stories from renowned journalist Simon Kuper, ESPN FC’s Duarte, Firdose Moonda and others.
Posted by Mac Nwulu on December 4, 2013
ESPN Presents Final Draw for the 2014 FIFA World Cup™
Multiplatform Coverage on U.S. TV, Digital, Radio and more
ESPN will provide comprehensive coverage of the Final Draw for the 2014 FIFA World Cup across its multimedia platforms highlighted by FIFA World Cup Draw, a two-hour live program on ESPN2 and WatchESPN on Friday, Dec. 6, beginning at 11:30 a.m. ET. Bob Ley will host, joined by analysts Michael Ballack, Alexi Lalas, Steve McManaman and Santiago Solari in ESPN’s Bristol, Conn., studio, and Taylor Twellman from Kansas City, site of the 2013 MLS Cup.
The Draw places the 32 teams who have qualified for the 2014 World Cup into eight groups consisting of four teams. The teams in each group play three matches in a round-robin phase with the top two teams from each group advancing to the round of 16 single-elimination phase.
Reporters Jeremy Schaap, John Sutcliffe and ESPN Brasil’s Rubens Pozzi, will provide live reports throughout the day from Costa do Sauípe in the Brazilian state of Bahia, where the draw will be held. Other highlights:
ESPN3, the multiscreen sports network in 85 million homes, will show the live stream of the official FIFA World Cup Draw ceremony (world feed) beginning at 11 a.m.;
SportsCenter – The daytime editions of the ESPN flagship program on Friday at 11 a.m. with Jay Crawford and Karl Ravech, and 1 p.m. show with Linda Cohn and David Lloyd, will offer live look-ins to the Final Draw in Costa do Sauípe;
#TimmyTakeover on social media – U.S. Men’s National Team goalkeeper and FIFA World Cup veteran Tim Howard will take over the @ESPN Twitter account during the Draw to provide instant reaction and comments.
ESPN Deportes, the Spanish-language sports network will offer analysis, predictions and post-Draw reactions starting at 11 a.m. Coverage will originate from ESPN’s studios in Mexico City with a roundtable of experts that includes former coach of Mexico’s National Team Ricardo La Volpe, and former soccer players Luis Roberto Alves “Zague” and Francisco Gabriel de Anda alongside José Ramón Fernández, Tony Cherchi and Ricardo Puig. Sutcliffe and Ciro Procuna will report from Brazil throughout the network’s live programming. Fernando Palomo, Andrés Agulla, Manu Martín and Tato Noriega will also contribute to the analysis from Bristol, Conn. In addition, the coverage will present live reactions and reports from ESPN’s experts and relevant soccer personalities from around the world.
ESPN Deportes Radio, the only 24/7 Spanish-language sports radio network, will present news and information programming prior to, during and after the Draw led by a special two-hour show Destino Brazil 2014 starting at 12 p.m. with the analysis, reactions and news from radio personalities Marcelo Masanti, Ricardo Mayorga, Diego Cora, Giovanni Scavia. José del Valle will join the coverage with live reports from Brazil. SportsCenter minute updates will be incorporated into the radio show with reports every 30 minutes.
ESPN FC on TV
ESPN FC, the definitive soccer studio news and information program, will air World Cup Draw specials on Thursday and Friday on ESPN2:
Thursday, Dec. 5, at 5:30 p.m. – The 30-minute program with host Dan Thomas, analysts Craig Burley, Shaka Hislop, Lalas, McManaman, Alejandro Moreno and Twellman, will preview the Draw;
Friday, Dec. 6 at 5:30 p.m. – A one-hour recap of the World Cup Draw with Thomas, Hislop, McManaman and Solari in Bristol. Kasey Keller, Moreno and Twellman join from 2013 MLS Cup site in Kansas City; reporter Gab Marcotti from Costa do Sauípe, and German football expert Rafael Honigstein from London.
FIFA World Cup Draw on ESPN2 and WatchESPN, Friday, Dec. 6, at 11:30 a.m.
In addition to commentary, news highlights and analysis, ESPN2’s live presentation of the Draw will include the following segments:
An in-depth explanation of the FIFA World Cup Final Draw – how it works and the introduction of soccer legends, generally FIFA World Cup champions and stars such as ESPN Deportes’ Mario Kempes (1978 Argentina World Cup champion), who act as draw assistants;
Before the start of the Draw, leading statistician and analyst Nate Silver, the founder of award-winning FiveThirtyEight.com, will preview the best and worst case scenarios for the U.S. Men’s National Team. Silver will also offer his post-Draw reactions;
Schaap (Draw and U.S. Men’s National Team), Sutcliffe (Mexican National Team) and Ponzi (Brazil), reports and interviews from site;
U.S. Men’s National Team defender DeMarcus Beasley;
Post-Draw interview with U.S. National Men’s Soccer Team manager Jurgen Klinsmann from Costa do Sauipe;
Sutcliffe reports on the Mexican National Team’s draw;
ESPN Brasil reporter Pozzi will react to the host nation’s draw; and
ESPN’s lead soccer commentator Ian Darke joins the program live from London.
ESPN FC Across Global Digital Platforms
Global coverage of the Final Draw for the 2014 FIFA World Cup across ESPN FC digital platforms will be closely integrated with on-air telecasts and will follow every moment of the 2014 FIFA World Cup Draw before, during and after the ceremony. Soccer fans from around the world will have access to up-to-the-minute news, highlights and analysis breaking down the results and final schedule, including:
Pre-Ceremony Coverage – This week, ESPN FC will deliver complete coverage leading up to the draw on Friday, including an in-depth look at the state of Brazil by ESPN The Magazine and ESPN.com senior writer Wright Thompson. Other stories include a look back at the 1994 draw in Las Vegas from ESPN FC’s Roger Bennett, a recap of previous “Group of Death” showdowns, and preview stories from ESPN FC’s Gabriele Marcotti, among others. Fans will also be able to vote on the best position-by-position players and view possible scenarios with ESPN FC’s World Cup Draw simulator.
Live Draw Experience featuring WatchESPN and ESPN Sync – During the draw, fans will be able to access live coverage on ESPN2 and the live world feed on ESPN3 through WatchESPN in the US or follow the event live in Spanish with ESPN Sync in the US, Mexico and select regions of Latin America. The interactive draw experience will also feature an ESPN FC reaction show from 11:50 a.m. – 1:30 p.m. ET live on ESPN’s international English language networks as well as globally online. ESPN FC’s Dan Thomas hosts featuring Nicol, Paul Mariner, Hislop, Honigstein and Moreno among the guests. Additionally, live chats with ESPN FC writers and analysts, conversations on social platforms with @ESPNFC and #FCBootroom, Facebook and more, will also be available.
Rapid Reaction – Instant news and analysis will be reported on-site by ESPN FC’s Marcotti and Fernando Duarte, ESPN Deportes’ Jorge Ramos and Damián Didonato as well as group-by-group analysis and predictions by global contributors from around the world. Perspectives from the US, Mexico, Argentina and others will also be featured.
World Cup Bracket Predictor – At the conclusion of the draw, fans will be able to immediately get in the game by signing up for ESPN FC’s bracket style challenge. Players are tasked with predicting the two winners emerging from each of the eight groups as well as filling out the knockout bracket itself. Over $3,000 in prizes will be won by the most skilled predictors that construct the best brackets.
Highlights of the game include:
Real-time scoring and deep integration with ESPN Gamecast for the latest scores and news
The ability to seamlessly make picks on the Web and mobile Web and share champion picks on social platforms
Hundreds of “Fans of Country” groups and celebrity groups for fans to compete against
Six Months Out – Beginning December 12th, ESPN FC will kick off a six month countdown to the World Cup with the debut of Power Rankings. The site will also share its predictions and what to watch in addition to stories from renowned journalist Simon Kuper, ESPN FC’s Duarte, Firdose Moonda and others.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
Great write up QG!
Don't forget England in the pot above. They are tough to place, probably should fall in the Meh (relative group).
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
We are running out of ways to analyze the US draw
How about this one:
Of the teams that should beat us by 2 goals or more (Argie, Brazil, Italy, Holland, Germany, France etc), which one would have the greatest likelihood of assuming the US suck and pull a Portugal in 2002?
I am thinking maybe France would have no fear combined with hopefully enough arrogance to overlook us. Unfortunately, their embarrassing performance in 2010 works against us here.
How about this one:
Of the teams that should beat us by 2 goals or more (Argie, Brazil, Italy, Holland, Germany, France etc), which one would have the greatest likelihood of assuming the US suck and pull a Portugal in 2002?
I am thinking maybe France would have no fear combined with hopefully enough arrogance to overlook us. Unfortunately, their embarrassing performance in 2010 works against us here.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I don't think there's any team that would, on average, be favored over the US by two goals.We are running out of ways to analyze the US draw
How about this one:
Of the teams that should beat us by 2 goals or more (Argie, Brazil, Italy, Holland, Germany, France etc), which one would have the greatest likelihood of assuming the US suck and pull a Portugal in 2002?
I am thinking maybe France would have no fear combined with hopefully enough arrogance to overlook us. Unfortunately, their embarrassing performance in 2010 works against us here.
And I think the days when teams took the US for granted are done too. We've been a decent side for a long time and have won a lot of games against top teams.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
Interesting. I don't follow betting lines but Brazil, for example, favored at home by 2 over the US does not appear to be much of a stretch to me.I don't think there's any team that would, on average, be favored over the US by two goals.We are running out of ways to analyze the US draw
How about this one:
Of the teams that should beat us by 2 goals or more (Argie, Brazil, Italy, Holland, Germany, France etc), which one would have the greatest likelihood of assuming the US suck and pull a Portugal in 2002?
I am thinking maybe France would have no fear combined with hopefully enough arrogance to overlook us. Unfortunately, their embarrassing performance in 2010 works against us here.
.
One of the problems of being in Concacaf is so rarely getting a real game against top competition that is not a friendly with 6 subs. I am not sure countries give these as much weight as we do. We beat plenty of good countries prior to 2002 as well but that did not stop Portugal from overlooking the US.
Last edited by a moderator:
The Gator
Footballguy
France or Italy maybeWe are running out of ways to analyze the US draw
How about this one:
Of the teams that should beat us by 2 goals or more (Argie, Brazil, Italy, Holland, Germany, France etc), which one would have the greatest likelihood of assuming the US suck and pull a Portugal in 2002?
I am thinking maybe France would have no fear combined with hopefully enough arrogance to overlook us. Unfortunately, their embarrassing performance in 2010 works against us here.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
Good thing about Italy is that they rarely blow anyone out in group stage so you always have a fluke chance.France or Italy maybeWe are running out of ways to analyze the US draw
How about this one:
Of the teams that should beat us by 2 goals or more (Argie, Brazil, Italy, Holland, Germany, France etc), which one would have the greatest likelihood of assuming the US suck and pull a Portugal in 2002?
I am thinking maybe France would have no fear combined with hopefully enough arrogance to overlook us. Unfortunately, their embarrassing performance in 2010 works against us here.
Out of 15 first round games since 1994, they have only won by 2 or more goals 4 times. Where as Brazil has seen more than half of their first round games wins by 2 or more.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
Until some friendlies start and we have some rosters to chew on, its all we got to really discuss.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Prediction: Germany, Cameroon, USA, Russia.
USA snatches a draw with Germany, 0-0, only to lose the final game vs Russia 3-1 after going down to 10 men on a dicey second yellow against Germaine Jones in the 57th minute.
USA snatches a draw with Germany, 0-0, only to lose the final game vs Russia 3-1 after going down to 10 men on a dicey second yellow against Germaine Jones in the 57th minute.
Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
Funny, I feel like we're going to get Germany and Russia too.
From Pot 2, I'll say we get Ecuador. Not ready yet to predict results.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Who do we consider stars by casual fan standards? Messi/Ronaldo/Rooney? Then maybe the USMNT guys?
I'd pick Suarez right now. SA team, could put up a ton of goals, and gives one something to talk about.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
For US sports but not soccer fans, I think it is probably 5 people are well known: Messi, Ronaldo, Donovan, Dempsey and Howard
After this it is a crap shoot based on what the casual fan watches. If they watch some US qualifiers they probably know some more US players and some Mexican names.
You have to figure Neymar is going to have the best chance to explode in name recognition in the US. Everything has aligned pretty nicely for him including the ratings likely to be the highest soccer ratings in the US ever (and likely the highest until at least 2026). Hopefully he is not remembered as the diving #####.
Your choice of Suarez is interesting because he brings a double barrel of incredible skill and the off chance that he does something crazy. Sadly, most US sports fans first and only thought when it comes to Zidane is the head butt.
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
I was at a local soccer shop last week looking for a gift for my son's birthday and it was all Neymar. It helps that Addidas does Brazil kits and they already released the 2014 design (together with France, Germany, Mexico, Russia and a few others). Perhaps not well known to the casual US fan, but the young soccer players are all about Neymar atm.
charvik
Footballguy
I follow betting lines (a lot), and can see multiple teams being -2 against the US (from a pure sporting perspective). When the tournament rolls along, the US team will most likely see lines between -1 1/4 to -1 3/4, with an odd -2 sprinkled in, depending on the draw of course.wdcrob said:I don't think there's any team that would, on average, be favored over the US by two goals.NewlyRetired said:We are running out of ways to analyze the US draw
How about this one:
Of the teams that should beat us by 2 goals or more (Argie, Brazil, Italy, Holland, Germany, France etc), which one would have the greatest likelihood of assuming the US suck and pull a Portugal in 2002?
I am thinking maybe France would have no fear combined with hopefully enough arrogance to overlook us. Unfortunately, their embarrassing performance in 2010 works against us here.
And I think the days when teams took the US for granted are done too. We've been a decent side for a long time and have won a lot of games against top teams.
Similar threads
