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RB Doug Martin, Free Agent (1 Viewer)

Faust

MVP
Tedford, Frazier share visions for Bucs schemes

By Roy Cummings | Tribune Staff

Excerpt:

TAMPA — Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive coordinator Jeff Tedford has barely had a chance to adjust the seat behind his desk to the proper setting, so still isn’t sure what his plans are for quarterback Mike Glennon.

Tedford’s plans for Pro Bowl running back Doug Martin are already starting to take shape, though, and that could be where the biggest change in the Bucs offensive attack is taking place.

Unlike former head coach Greg Schiano, who preferred to give the bulk of the carries to a single back such as Martin, Tedford plans to use a two- and maybe even three-back scheme that constantly forces defenses to adjust to his personnel.

“When I was at (the University of California) we were always very fortunate to have two very good backs, whether it was J.J. Arrington and Marshawn Lynch or Lynch and Justin Forsett, or Lynch and Jahvid Best or Jahvid Best and Shane Vereen,’’ Tedford said Wednesday.

“We really had a good one-two punch in the backfield there and I think that’s what you need. For one guy to carry the load the whole time, especially as physical as this level is, is a lot. So (we’re looking) to have two and probably three backs that can provide different things for you.’’

Tedford and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier held news conferences Wednesday at One Buc Place, taking questions for the first time since joining new head coach Lovie Smith’s staff. While Frazier suggested his defense could look familiar to longtime Bucs fans, Tedford indicated his offense might include some new wrinkles.

Whether the Bucs have the backs in place to add those wrinkles is hard to tell, Tedford said. He’s only been breaking down film of his new players for a few days and the limited work that backs such as Mike James and Bobby Rainey received last year has made it hard to gauge their true abilities.

Tedford does believe, however, there is “talent and potential’’ in those and other runners on the roster.
 
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I already own Doug Martin in a couple of leagues so hopefully this isn't too biased. I feel that Martin has too much talent to be pushed to the bench by these two guys. Several team issues clearly led to Martin's lower first half stats. Freeman was no prize and there was so much pressure about him failing. It wasn't until Glennon stepped in and showed some poise that everything started to gel. I think it was Nicks who was out at first with flesh eating disease or some such. It took a while to get past that. all in all I think the tenor of the posts I'm reading has me convinced that Martin will be a great buy low target this year.

 
I already own Doug Martin in a couple of leagues so hopefully this isn't too biased. I feel that Martin has too much talent to be pushed to the bench by these two guys. Several team issues clearly led to Martin's lower first half stats. Freeman was no prize and there was so much pressure about him failing. It wasn't until Glennon stepped in and showed some poise that everything started to gel. I think it was Nicks who was out at first with flesh eating disease or some such. It took a while to get past that. all in all I think the tenor of the posts I'm reading has me convinced that Martin will be a great buy low target this year.
He doesn't have to be "pushed to the bench" to lose value. But if the OC follows through on this plan (and you think Martin will return to his rookie year form), losing touches will drop him from a stud RB1 to a middle-tier RB1.

If you believe the new OC will do what he says and incorporate 1 or 2 other backs, that diminishes Martin's value, even if his struggles last year were solely due to the early season dysfunctionality of the Bucs. Martin got 84% of the RB touches in TB in 2012. That's a higher percentage than ADP had in 2012, even though he was running for almost 2100 yards.

The Bucs have averaged 448 touches (rushes+receptions) out of their RBs over the last 10 years. (I know the OC is new, but that gives a starting point) Give Martin 84% of those touches, and he comes up with 376 touches. In his monster rookie year, he had 368, and he was on pace for 370 before got hurt last year.

If you take the OC at this word, and give Martin only 70% of the RB touches, while still getting the other 2 RBs involved, Martin would get 314 touches.

About 87% of Martin's touches have come by rush, and 13% by reception, so break it down by those percentages, and you get:

Martin with 84% of the workload-327 rushes, 49 receptions.

Martin with 70% of the workload-273 rushes, 41 receptions.

Give Martin his 4.6 YPC average and his 9.6 YPR average from his rookie year, and you get:

Martin with 84% of the workload-327 rushes, 1504 rush yards, 470 receiving yards

Martin with 70% of the workload-273 rushes, 1256 rush yards, 394 receiving yards

Give Martin the same TD/rush ratio & TD/reception ration from his rookie year, and you get:

Martin with 84% of the workload-12 total TDs

Martin with 70% of the workload-10 total TDs

From a FF perspective, that means:

Martin with 84% of the workload-269.4 FF points

Martin with 70% of the workload-225 FF points

That's the difference between Martin being FF RB3 this year to RB7.

 
Give Martin his 4.6 YPC average and his 9.6 YPR average from his rookie year
I'll take the under on both of those next year.

He'll be a steady RB2 most likely. No shame in that. It's just a disappointment to people who got caught up the excitement after his 2 big games in his rookie year.

 
Give Martin his 4.6 YPC average and his 9.6 YPR average from his rookie year
I'll take the under on both of those next year.

He'll be a steady RB2 most likely. No shame in that. It's just a disappointment to people who got caught up the excitement after his 2 big games in his rookie year.
I agree with you that I'd take the under on 4.6 and 9.6 next season, but that doesn't mean he's automatically consigned to being a mid-tier RB2.

I've said this before but, in this pass-happy / RBBC era we find ourselves in, the bar to being a fantasy RB2 is set remarkably low. Three separate guys (Joique Bell, Gio Bernard, Andre Ellington) finished as fantasy RB2s in both standard and PPR formats in 2013 without even leading their own teams in rushing*. Basically, if you can stay healthy, get half or more of the carries, and be something more than a complete afterthought in the short passing game, you're most of the way toward being a starting FF RB.

The Bucs were last in total offense in '13 by an embarrassingly large margin. I'd say reversion to the mean alone would offer hope of a significant boost in '14, even without considering Glennon's continued maturation or Schiano's good riddance. No reason not to think a rising tide won't lift Martin's ship along with everyone else's.

Even if he only gets two-thirds of the carries, I'd say Martin still has a very good chance of putting up low-end RB1 numbers in '14 and I'd have no qualms about drafting him as such.

* - And that doesn't even count F-Jax, who managed to finish RB10 without leading his own team in rushing - a fact that might astonish only me.

 
I already own Doug Martin in a couple of leagues so hopefully this isn't too biased. I feel that Martin has too much talent to be pushed to the bench by these two guys. Several team issues clearly led to Martin's lower first half stats. Freeman was no prize and there was so much pressure about him failing. It wasn't until Glennon stepped in and showed some poise that everything started to gel. I think it was Nicks who was out at first with flesh eating disease or some such. It took a while to get past that. all in all I think the tenor of the posts I'm reading has me convinced that Martin will be a great buy low target this year.
He doesn't have to be "pushed to the bench" to lose value. But if the OC follows through on this plan (and you think Martin will return to his rookie year form), losing touches will drop him from a stud RB1 to a middle-tier RB1.

If you believe the new OC will do what he says and incorporate 1 or 2 other backs, that diminishes Martin's value, even if his struggles last year were solely due to the early season dysfunctionality of the Bucs. Martin got 84% of the RB touches in TB in 2012. That's a higher percentage than ADP had in 2012, even though he was running for almost 2100 yards.

The Bucs have averaged 448 touches (rushes+receptions) out of their RBs over the last 10 years. (I know the OC is new, but that gives a starting point) Give Martin 84% of those touches, and he comes up with 376 touches. In his monster rookie year, he had 368, and he was on pace for 370 before got hurt last year.

If you take the OC at this word, and give Martin only 70% of the RB touches, while still getting the other 2 RBs involved, Martin would get 314 touches.

About 87% of Martin's touches have come by rush, and 13% by reception, so break it down by those percentages, and you get:

Martin with 84% of the workload-327 rushes, 49 receptions.

Martin with 70% of the workload-273 rushes, 41 receptions.

Give Martin his 4.6 YPC average and his 9.6 YPR average from his rookie year, and you get:

Martin with 84% of the workload-327 rushes, 1504 rush yards, 470 receiving yards

Martin with 70% of the workload-273 rushes, 1256 rush yards, 394 receiving yards

Give Martin the same TD/rush ratio & TD/reception ration from his rookie year, and you get:

Martin with 84% of the workload-12 total TDs

Martin with 70% of the workload-10 total TDs

From a FF perspective, that means:

Martin with 84% of the workload-269.4 FF points

Martin with 70% of the workload-225 FF points

That's the difference between Martin being FF RB3 this year to RB7.
The reason Martin got so many carries the first year is because Schiano didn't like Blount. I doubt he ever sees that much of the work load again.

 
FF Ninja said:
Bayhawks said:
Give Martin his 4.6 YPC average and his 9.6 YPR average from his rookie year
I'll take the under on both of those next year.

He'll be a steady RB2 most likely. No shame in that. It's just a disappointment to people who got caught up the excitement after his 2 big games in his rookie year.
Agree. The only reason I used his rookie averages is because they were much better than his 2nd year numbers. I was trying to suggest that even if he returned to that level of performance, if the OC does use multiple backs, Martin's value will diminish.

Quez said:
The reason Martin got so many carries the first year is because Schiano didn't like Blount. I doubt he ever sees that much of the work load again.
Again, I agree. Especially if the new OC means it when he says he wants to utilize multiple backs.

Agree with both of you. The only reason I used his rookie averages is becaus

 
Do we think Rainey and James are talented enough in any skill set vs Martin to reduce Martin's role significantly?

 
Do we think Rainey and James are talented enough in any skill set vs Martin to reduce Martin's role significantly?
Perhaps. I think they both showed well enough to get some action. It's going to depend on a few things including new coaching philosophy and Martin's health.

 
Do we think Rainey and James are talented enough in any skill set vs Martin to reduce Martin's role significantly?
Perhaps. I think they both showed well enough to get some action. It's going to depend on a few things including new coaching philosophy and Martin's health.
Both had a few good games. The new OC has said he wants to use multiple backs. We won't really know until we see them all healthy at the same time, but all signs point towards Martin's touches being decreased.

 
Doug Martin: 'I'll be ready for April workouts'

I don't think that he will be as highly valued as a dynasty asset or as a redraft asset going into this season as he was last year, but it is a question of value. If he drops significantly in leagues this year in terms of his draft round or in trade value, I still think that he is young enough that I would bet on an eventual career rebound, just perhaps not right away with the crowded backfield in Tampa Bay and with a possible QB change within the next few years.

 
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I don't think that he will be as highly valued as a dynasty asset or as a redraft asset going into this season as he was last year, but it is a question of value. If he drops significantly in leagues this year in terms of his draft round or in trade value, I still think that he is young enough that I would bet on an eventual career rebound, just perhaps not right away with the crowded backfield in Tampa Bay and with a possible QB change within the next few years.
He went 21st on average in the WSLs, 10th RB off the board. I'd start sniffing at him there in redraft, but there are a handful of guys behind him (Bernard in any format, Bush in PPR) who I would be just as happy with.

I expected the earlier news to knock him down a few more pegs to high-end RB2 territory, and at those levels I'd be a buyer all day.

DLF has him at RB6 in dynasty, which again is tough to argue represents either great or horrible value. If he starts sinking toward Morris levels I'd grab him with both hands.

 
I liked what I saw from Mike James. I think if he can stay healthy, can have a decent career as backup RB. Seems to do everything well.

Still Doug's show but James proved more than capable in the event of Doug injury/doesn't bounce back.

 
Rotoworld:

Bucs re-signed RB Bobby Rainey to a two-year contract through the 2015 season.
Rainey was scheduled to be an exclusive rights free agent this offseason, so the Bucs are basically buying out that year and his restricted free agent season. He'll be an unrestricted free agent in 2016. Rainey likely isn't getting much more than the three- and four-year veteran's base salary minimums. After rushing for 566 yards and five scores last season, he'll compete for No. 2 duties.
The Bucs are essentially saying that they liked enough of what they saw from Rainey last year to keep him around as part of the RBBC puzzle in Tampa Bay. Doug Martin will be the starter and will see the largest share of the touches; however, his dynasty value isn't quite as high as it was a year ago.

 
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While Martin's value is clearly down from last summer, he should still produce as a mid to lower end RB1. Maybe not the stud envisioned, but RB2 talk is crazy- I'm buying all day at those prices

 
Martin is in the mix for the top 5-10 RBs. One good rebound season this year and he elevates into the top 3-5. If he were to have a down year then the consensus will start to value him as a RB2, in my opinion.

 
Rotoworld:

Coach Lovie Smith confirmed he sees Mike James as a tailback, not a fullback.
Lovie added that he sees James as a "very good" tailback at a stocky 5'10/223. The 2013 sixth-rounder handled himself reasonably well following Doug Martin's season-ending shoulder injury, rushing 57 times for 283 yards (4.96 YPC) in four starts. As long as James' rehab from a broken ankle goes smoothly, he'll enter the season as Martin's handcuff once again.

Source: Scott Smith on Twitter
 
Doug Martin is currently ranked as dynasty RB # 3 at DLF and as Dynasty/Keeper RB # 5 at Fantasy Pros.

I think with the rumblings of Martin as the lead back in more of a RBBC in Tampa Bay and with what transpired last year that these rankings could prove to be a touch high.

Theses dynasty rankings don't include any of the rookie RB players as they haven't been drafted into the NFL yet; however, it is unlikely that a rookie RB will crack a dynasty top 3 list in their first year.

What are the thoughts from the Shark Pool?

 
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Rotoworld:

New coach Lovie Smith endorsed Doug Martin as the Buccaneers' "bellcow" at the league meetings Wednesday.
Smith described new OC Jeff Tedford's offense as "a running attack that can pass the football." Martin will be the lead dog, but "will have backup help." This is clearly going to be a run-first attack, Lovie's preferred approach complemented by a stout defense. Martin should be a shoo-in bounce-back fantasy RB1.

Source: Rick Stroud on Twitter
 
Buccaneers offseason preview: running backs

By Sander Philipse

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a solid group of running backs, but failed to get quality production out of them last year. Doug Martin is returning from a shoulder injury, but should be ready for offseason

Currently on the roster: Doug Martin, Mike James, Jeff Demps, Michael Smith, Lonnie Pryor

Free agents: Brian Leonard, Bobby Rainey (Exclusive Rights), Erik Lorig, Spencer Larsen

What happened last yearThe Buccaneers entered the season being very optimistic at running back. Having traded Legarrette Blount for peanuts, Doug Martin was expected to carry the load while sixth-round pick Mike James and Brian Leonard were supposed to act as change-of-pace and third-down backs respectively.

Things didn't work out that way. Nothing really worked out the way we thought before the season, really. Doug Martin managed six largely unproductive games, bothered by an under-performing, injury-racked offensive line and what appeared to be some sophomore struggles of his own. He dropped far too many passes on easy catches, and missed a few too many open running lanes.

And then he tore up his shoulder, which kept him out for the rest of the season.

That was not as disastrous as it first seemed. Martin managed just 3.6 yards per carry, but replacement Mike James came in and produced nearly 300 yards in just three games and 60 carries. He didn't look like he was better than Doug Martin, really, but he looked like a very solid all-around running back who had more abilities than expected.

And then he broke his ankle.

Next up: Bobby Rainey off the waiver wire. One great game against the Atlanta Falcons was followed by mostly mediocrity the rest of the way. Meanwhile, Brian Leonard got to play blocker and catch-checkdown-get-hit-hard machine on third downs. It was not really a pretty sight. Oh, and Jeff Demps came in for a couple of plays before ending up on injured reserve, too.

Finally, there were the fullbacks. Erik Lorig was the starter, but missed nearly half the season in snaps to injuries. And then the Bucs somehow brought in another fullback in Spencer Larsen, using him as an in-line tight end while trying Luke Stocker and Tom Crabtree as fullbacks on a few snaps. It was ugly. It did not work. No one was surprised it did not work. Oh, and to finish things off, Erik Lorig continued to look like the same guy: physically a quality blocker, but struggling to adjust to the defense on the move, leading to too many whiffs or poor choices in blocking.

Overall, it was a struggle. The Bucs had the 25th-worst yards per carry average in the NFL last year. And they really couldn't punch it into the endzone: only one team managed fewer rushing touchdowns. The Bucs are going to have to fix this next season.

2014 OutlookDoug Martin should be healthy, which is very important. The Buccaneers have indicated that he will still be the team's main running back, but you won't see the suicidal workload Greg Schiano gave him. Lovie Smith's a big believer in a need for a squad of running backs, as is Jeff Tedford. Doug Martin may still be the foundation of the running game, but everyone else will get to contribute, too.

Everyone else, in this case, will be a pretty talented group of runners. Mike James' ankle injury means we don't know whether he'll be ready to play this year, but he looked like a quality starter in limited time last season. Bobby Rainey struggled more, but he looked competent -- which is really all you can ask for. The team may look for some competition in camp here, but I wouldn't expect a free agent signing or draft pick at the position.

Martin and company will be used in a variety of ways. Jeff Tedford does a lot of different things with his running backs, with his blocking schemes and with his formations. They'll get opportunities to get down the field as receivers, and the Bucs will try to get them outside, to the edge on running plays. You'll see more variety than the up-the-gut mentality Greg Schiano approached the running game with.

The Bucs also have two interesting speedsters in Michael Hill Smith and Jeff Demps. I wouldn't expect both to make the roster, but one of them will probably turn into Tedford's "speed in space" weapons.

The team's biggest question mark will be at fullback, oddly enough. Second-year player Lonnie Pryor got no playing time last year, but he's a versatile fullback who can run the ball and act as a receiver as well. Tedford's offense isn't heavy on fullback use, but Pryor might be a useful weapon. The question is whether they also want a more traditional blocking fullback.

Likely depth chart: Doug Martin, Mike James, Bobby Rainey, Jeff Demps.
 
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Rotoworld:

Doug Martin (shoulder) expects to be medically cleared next week.
Martin is on track to be cleared for OTAs and should be fully healthy by mini-camp on April 22. He missed the final eight games of 2013 due to shoulder surgery, but hasn't had any setbacks. Martin doesn't have any real threat for carries in backups Bobby Rainey and Mike James and is a strong candidate for a bounce back season in Jeff Tedford's run-first offense.

Source: Tom Krasniqi on Twitter
 
I liked what I saw from Mike James. I think if he can stay healthy, can have a decent career as backup RB. Seems to do everything well.

Still Doug's show but James proved more than capable in the event of Doug injury/doesn't bounce back.
I agree. James got cut after his injury last season. He's still a FA and will be available in our rookie draft. I have about a mid third round grade on him.

 
Rotoworld:

Coach Lovie Smith said the Bucs are going to "lean" on Doug Martin.
Smith believes in taking his starting running back off the field when a breather is needed, not implementing a true committee. "I think you have to have a bell cow. [Martin] is ours. ... Two will play, but it's not a rotation that where every series we're going to have a different guy in there." With his shoulder healed and the new regime implementing a run-first scheme, Martin has major bounce-back appeal. Mike James and Bobby Rainey are his current backups.

Related: Mike James, Bobby Rainey

Source: Tampa Bay Times
 
I'm not too high on any of our RBs for fantasy this season. The o-line is a complete unknown, and some of the guys they got rid of were good run blockers. I obviously have to see what they do in the draft, but right now there isn't much to be optimistic about. All this talk of spread offense and zone blocking is pretty drastic. I think I am going to take a wait & see approach, and let someone else reach on Martin.

If anything I think the value is in James & Rainey.

 
Doug Martin is currently ranked as dynasty RB # 3 at DLF and as Dynasty/Keeper RB # 5 at Fantasy Pros.

I think with the rumblings of Martin as a the lead back in more of a RBBC in Tampa Bay and with what transpired last year that these rankings could prove to be a touch high.

Theses dynasty rankings don't include any of the rookie RB players as they haven't been drafted into the NFL yet; however, it is unlikely that a rookie RB will crack a dynasty top 3 list in their first year.

What are the thoughts from the Shark Pool?
I agree he's too high. I posted about it in the other Martin thread so I won't blabber too much, but to sum up my thoughts:

-He put up 4.1 ypc in his career if you remove his best game and worst game

-One should not ignore an outlier altogether, but when a single game so significantly skews a guy's averages, it has to be taken into consideration

-He's only as good as his number of touches (he's not going to be a guy who ranks 15th in touches and 5th in points)

-He'll likely never sniff the workload he got under the stubborn/loyal Schiano

With a new non-Schiano staff, I doubt he ranks in the top 10 in touches. Consequently, I don't think he'll rank top 10 in points. As the likely 3rd down back, PPR is obviously going to be his strength, so if you're into that, he'll have slightly more value, but again, he won't be a points per game monster - even in PPR - unless all the other RBs get injured or benched.

 
NFC Team-by-Team Notes

Evan Silva

Excerpt:

I'm not worried about Doug Martin bouncing back from last year's shoulder injury. I'm not too worried about "other backs" Bobby Rainey and Mike James. I'm not overly concerned with Tampa Bay's rebuilt offensive line, either. I am a bit cautious about the history of backfield usage and fantasy performance under Tampa Bay's new coaching staff. The No. 3 overall running back scorer in his first year under Marc Trestman, Matt Forte only finished inside the top-ten fantasy backs once in five previous seasons under Lovie Smith. Rookie OC Jeff Tedford spent a decade as the head coach at Cal. He had three excellent receiving backs in Jahvid Best, Shane Vereen, and Justin Forsett, yet none of those three ever exceeded 27 receptions in a college season. I do believe Martin has a chance to flirt with 300 carries. I consider Martin's pass-catching skills a strength, however. And I'm not sure Lovie and Tedford are the right guys to maximize it.
 
Rotoworld:

Doug Martin (shoulder surgery) confirmed he's been medically cleared.
He recovered right on schedule from the Week 7 injury. A consensus top-five fantasy pick in 2013, Martin disappointed on a dysfunctional, Josh Freeman-led team before suffering the year-ending labrum tear. New coach Lovie Smith and Jeff Tedford's offensive track records are somewhat discouraging as it pertains to Martin's 2014 pass-game usage and upside, but he's locked back into the top three rounds of standard fantasy drafts.

Source: Doug Martin on Twitter
 
Faust said:
NFC Team-by-Team Notes

Evan Silva

Excerpt:

I'm not worried about Doug Martin bouncing back from last year's shoulder injury. I'm not too worried about "other backs" Bobby Rainey and Mike James. I'm not overly concerned with Tampa Bay's rebuilt offensive line, either. I am a bit cautious about the history of backfield usage and fantasy performance under Tampa Bay's new coaching staff. The No. 3 overall running back scorer in his first year under Marc Trestman, Matt Forte only finished inside the top-ten fantasy backs once in five previous seasons under Lovie Smith. Rookie OC Jeff Tedford spent a decade as the head coach at Cal. He had three excellent receiving backs in Jahvid Best, Shane Vereen, and Justin Forsett, yet none of those three ever exceeded 27 receptions in a college season. I do believe Martin has a chance to flirt with 300 carries. I consider Martin's pass-catching skills a strength, however. And I'm not sure Lovie and Tedford are the right guys to maximize it.
That's interesting. I guess I was wrong about PPR being a strength for Martin next year.

 
Rotation won't slow Doug Martin

By Pat Yasinskas | ESPN.com

Even though coach Lovie Smith has said he plans to use a rotation in his backfield, don't go dropping Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Doug Martin from your fantasy team.

Martin still is going to be the main ball carrier and that means he still will be a fantasy force. Smith and his staff will work Mike James and Bobby Rainey into the rotation, but that’s not going to diminish Martin’s impact.

If anything, not having to handle virtually all the carries, the way he did under former coach Greg Schiano, should help keep Martin fresh. James and Rainey showed they’re capable runners last year when Martin was out with a shoulder injury.

But James and Rainey aren’t quite in Martin's class and that means the rotation isn't going to split up the carries too much. Martin still will get the bulk of the carries and he’s shown he can produce in fantasy and real life.

The Bucs are going to run the ball a lot, maybe even more than they did with Schiano. James and Rainey will help keep Martin fresh. That little bit of rest could help Martin, who carried 319 times and caught 49 passes as a rookie in 2012, be even more productive.
 
NFC Team-by-Team Notes

Evan Silva

Excerpt:

I'm not worried about Doug Martin bouncing back from last year's shoulder injury. I'm not too worried about "other backs" Bobby Rainey and Mike James. I'm not overly concerned with Tampa Bay's rebuilt offensive line, either. I am a bit cautious about the history of backfield usage and fantasy performance under Tampa Bay's new coaching staff. The No. 3 overall running back scorer in his first year under Marc Trestman, Matt Forte only finished inside the top-ten fantasy backs once in five previous seasons under Lovie Smith. Rookie OC Jeff Tedford spent a decade as the head coach at Cal. He had three excellent receiving backs in Jahvid Best, Shane Vereen, and Justin Forsett, yet none of those three ever exceeded 27 receptions in a college season. I do believe Martin has a chance to flirt with 300 carries. I consider Martin's pass-catching skills a strength, however. And I'm not sure Lovie and Tedford are the right guys to maximize it.
That's interesting. I guess I was wrong about PPR being a strength for Martin next year.
College is also a completely different animal in terms of the coverages that WRs see. There are definitely concerns with his usage, but I think he has more PPR upside than some of these indicators.

Also with respect to Lovie, I think it was a FBG podcast (maybe OTC?) where they were talking about how the year off from coaching may have made him re-evaluate his approach to the game. So Lovie has some uncertainty as to his preferences as well.

ETA: RBs catching passes is also highly dependent on the QB. Forte's receiving lines in games where McCown had 20+ attempts:

Median: 5/41/0

Average: 4.7/43/0.3

Those seem pretty respectable. Not saying this is right estimate given different scheme, but McCown has shown ability to check down enough to make for some nice PPR stats.

 
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Rotoworld:

Coach Lovie Smith issued a vote of confidence to Doug Martin last week.
Smith says the surprising selection of West Virgina RB Charles Sims in the third round was about adding a passing-down back, not about Martin's 3.59 YPC last season. "He's an All-Pro running back. There is nothing to dislike about Doug Martin. At the same time, we want Doug around here for many years. You need to have some other guys. He can't carry it every second," Smith said. Martin's role as a two-down workhorse and goal-line back is intact.

Source: Tampa Bay Times
 
Rotoworld:

Doug Martin - RB

The Buccaneers' website anticipates rookie Charles Sims "taking a handful of carries" per game from Doug Martin, "and perhaps also serving as the third-down back."

Bucs.com's Scott Smith makes it clear he expects Sims to be a "complementary" player -- not a threat to Martin's starting job -- but this isn't the first indication Sims could steal passing-game work from Tampa Bay's feature runner. Smith does not expect Martin to return to his 2012 form of 1,926 all-purpose yards and 12 touchdowns. Sims will be a solid handcuff, especially in PPR leagues.

Related: Charles Sims

Source: buccaneers.com

May 30 - 12:08 AM
 
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I posted about Martin in a ton of length last season. I felt his rookie season was a fluke and that he would see a significant drop off from 2013 onward. Last season, that happened... quite honestly, more than I thought it would of happened. He won't come close to his 2012 averages of 4.6ypc & 9.6ypr. He simply won't get near it, he had a very streaky season and we saw him regress to his normal self in 2013. And sure, he'd probably have had another massive game or two at some point last season if he played out the final 10 games. But what we saw was "normal Doug Martin" which is his typical performances. Again take away those massive weeks 7 & 8 from 2012 and his averages look significantly more human...

265 carries, 1068 yards, 4.03ypc & 6 TDs in his other 14 games... meaning "typical Doug" would've ended the season with 302 carries, 1217 yards & 7 TDs

42 receptions, 372 yards, 8.85ypr & 0 TDs in his other 14 games.. meaning "typical Doug" would've ended the season with 48 carries, 425 yards & 0 TDs

I went into last year saying these averages were probably more indicative as to what the 'real' Doug Martin would look like although I believe I felt his reception totals and ypr would drop a little bit more than this showed. Last season, through 6 games... he proved that to me.

If you look in this thread from last year you can see a lot of my arguments for Charles over Martin by a mile in drafts last season. I'm not certain if it's that thread or one of the others about Martin from last season where I stated I felt like Martin would likely never surpass his rookie season again. I still stand by that statement. I simply don't feel he is that special a talent that he will become a consensus elite-RB1 year to year. He'll be a low-end RB1 if his ppr numbers keep up. But if he slips there at all? He'll be a RB2 and only because of sheer volume will he obtain these numbers. Last season he was on pace for almost 20 less receptions (17 to be exact). That's a pretty large deal, especially considering he was also averaging only 5.5 ypr instead of his 9.6 from his rookie season. Meaning he was on pace for 32 receptions and 176 yards. That alone would've dropped him far far down, not even taking into account his 1.0ypa drop off in rushing.

 
I posted about Martin in a ton of length last season. I felt his rookie season was a fluke and that he would see a significant drop off from 2013 onward. Last season, that happened... quite honestly, more than I thought it would of happened. He won't come close to his 2012 averages of 4.6ypc & 9.6ypr. He simply won't get near it, he had a very streaky season and we saw him regress to his normal self in 2013. And sure, he'd probably have had another massive game or two at some point last season if he played out the final 10 games. But what we saw was "normal Doug Martin" which is his typical performances. Again take away those massive weeks 7 & 8 from 2012 and his averages look significantly more human...

265 carries, 1068 yards, 4.03ypc & 6 TDs in his other 14 games... meaning "typical Doug" would've ended the season with 302 carries, 1217 yards & 7 TDs

42 receptions, 372 yards, 8.85ypr & 0 TDs in his other 14 games.. meaning "typical Doug" would've ended the season with 48 carries, 425 yards & 0 TDs

I went into last year saying these averages were probably more indicative as to what the 'real' Doug Martin would look like although I believe I felt his reception totals and ypr would drop a little bit more than this showed. Last season, through 6 games... he proved that to me.

If you look in this thread from last year you can see a lot of my arguments for Charles over Martin by a mile in drafts last season. I'm not certain if it's that thread or one of the others about Martin from last season where I stated I felt like Martin would likely never surpass his rookie season again. I still stand by that statement. I simply don't feel he is that special a talent that he will become a consensus elite-RB1 year to year. He'll be a low-end RB1 if his ppr numbers keep up. But if he slips there at all? He'll be a RB2 and only because of sheer volume will he obtain these numbers. Last season he was on pace for almost 20 less receptions (17 to be exact). That's a pretty large deal, especially considering he was also averaging only 5.5 ypr instead of his 9.6 from his rookie season. Meaning he was on pace for 32 receptions and 176 yards. That alone would've dropped him far far down, not even taking into account his 1.0ypa drop off in rushing.
good post..I've been thinking the same thing..used to be a Martin-backer, I thought he was a to ptalent at the position..

he has enough name cache/recognition/value, that he's worth something right now..

his trade value is still relatively high,as he'll be listed as a top 10 RB in most fantasy mags/websites this summer..

time to move him is now, before his value drops any more than it already has..

 
Grahamburn said:
Khy said:
I posted about Martin in a ton of length last season.
So you pat yourself on the back for being "right" on Martin, but refuse to admit being wrong on Wilson because he was injured. Interesting take.
I didn't refuse to be wrong on Wilson? I admitted I was wrong and that I didn't think he'd fumble away another season. And I wasn't right about Martin because he was injured... I was right about Martin because he was like RB28 before his injury too. Even if he doesn't go down he likely finishes the season as a RB3 maybe if he turned it on the last few weeks he'd have finished as a RB2. Also yeah, I do want to pat myself on the back for predicting Martin's downfall last season. I was one of like 2 people on these entire boards that I recall saying "Eh, he's going to have a bad season". Everyone else told me I was completely high but to me there was TONS of evidence showing that he was completely way over valued.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Anyway.

Martin's numbers from his first two seasons aren't likely to be relevant in 2014. He'll be working in a completely different offense with completely different players surrounding him. He's not going to be a 300 carry workhorse like he was in 2012. He'll be much closer to 200 carries, his receptions will increase, and his per carry and per reception averages will likely increase as well as he'll be working in space more often.

 
Grahamburn said:
Khy said:
I posted about Martin in a ton of length last season.
So you pat yourself on the back for being "right" on Martin, but refuse to admit being wrong on Wilson because he was injured. Interesting take.
I didn't refuse to be wrong on Wilson? I admitted I was wrong and that I didn't think he'd fumble away another season. And I wasn't right about Martin because he was injured... I was right about Martin because he was like RB28 before his injury too. Even if he doesn't go down he likely finishes the season as a RB3 maybe if he turned it on the last few weeks he'd have finished as a RB2. Also yeah, I do want to pat myself on the back for predicting Martin's downfall last season. I was one of like 2 people on these entire boards that I recall saying "Eh, he's going to have a bad season". Everyone else told me I was completely high but to me there was TONS of evidence showing that he was completely way over valued.
That's a lot of assumptions to make on 5 and half games. Bobby Rainey and Mike James were both viable fantasy players during 2013 when Tampa's offense starting playing better football later in the season.

 
Martins value has really taken a hit i have noticed. One of my dynasty leagues i am RB heavy and tried to trade him straight up for the 1.1 or 1.2 pick and was flat out rejected. Both those teams needed a RB too.

 
Grahamburn said:
Khy said:
I posted about Martin in a ton of length last season.
So you pat yourself on the back for being "right" on Martin, but refuse to admit being wrong on Wilson because he was injured. Interesting take.
I didn't refuse to be wrong on Wilson? I admitted I was wrong and that I didn't think he'd fumble away another season. And I wasn't right about Martin because he was injured... I was right about Martin because he was like RB28 before his injury too. Even if he doesn't go down he likely finishes the season as a RB3 maybe if he turned it on the last few weeks he'd have finished as a RB2. Also yeah, I do want to pat myself on the back for predicting Martin's downfall last season. I was one of like 2 people on these entire boards that I recall saying "Eh, he's going to have a bad season". Everyone else told me I was completely high but to me there was TONS of evidence showing that he was completely way over valued.
That's a lot of assumptions to make on 5 and half games. Bobby Rainey and Mike James were both viable fantasy players during 2013 when Tampa's offense starting playing better football later in the season.
Don't you be bringing any of that kinda talk into the thread now.
 
I'm curious as to what his value is currently in dynasty non ppr leagues... I traded him recently for the 1.6 essentially

Wondering if others are seeing similar value

 
I'm curious as to what his value is currently in dynasty non ppr leagues... I traded him recently for the 1.6 essentially

Wondering if others are seeing similar value
I traded my 1.2 rookie pick for Doug Martin in a start 2QB non-PPR league. He wasn't my first choice but came at a much cheaper price than what owners were asking for Bell, Lacy, others in the "Tier 2" for dynasty rankings.

 
I read something about James potentially being the odd man out. Someone was speculating because nobody has really said much about him. They Licht/Lovie/Tedford have said positive things about the other guys including Demps.

All just coach speak here obviously, but that's part of the puzzle.

 
I'm curious as to what his value is currently in dynasty non ppr leagues... I traded him recently for the 1.6 essentially

Wondering if others are seeing similar value
I traded my 1.2 rookie pick for Doug Martin in a start 2QB non-PPR league. He wasn't my first choice but came at a much cheaper price than what owners were asking for Bell, Lacy, others in the "Tier 2" for dynasty rankings.
Lacy seems like a tier 1 RB in Dynasty rankings without a question.

 
I posted about Martin in a ton of length last season.
So you pat yourself on the back for being "right" on Martin, but refuse to admit being wrong on Wilson because he was injured. Interesting take.
I didn't refuse to be wrong on Wilson? I admitted I was wrong and that I didn't think he'd fumble away another season. And I wasn't right about Martin because he was injured... I was right about Martin because he was like RB28 before his injury too. Even if he doesn't go down he likely finishes the season as a RB3 maybe if he turned it on the last few weeks he'd have finished as a RB2. Also yeah, I do want to pat myself on the back for predicting Martin's downfall last season. I was one of like 2 people on these entire boards that I recall saying "Eh, he's going to have a bad season". Everyone else told me I was completely high but to me there was TONS of evidence showing that he was completely way over valued.
That's a lot of assumptions to make on 5 and half games. Bobby Rainey and Mike James were both viable fantasy players during 2013 when Tampa's offense starting playing better football later in the season.
Don't you be bringing any of that kinda talk into the thread now.
Can't let the flaws in his logic go. Had Martin stayed healthy all season and only replicated James' and Rainey's numbers he would have been on the borderline of the top 10. He likely would have outproduced them in all statistical categories, however. Also, before Martin was injured he had scored more points than Eddie Lacy, Chris Johnson, and Ryan Mathews. All of whom finished at or in the top 10 in most leagues by season's end.

 
I posted about Martin in a ton of length last season.
So you pat yourself on the back for being "right" on Martin, but refuse to admit being wrong on Wilson because he was injured. Interesting take.
I didn't refuse to be wrong on Wilson? I admitted I was wrong and that I didn't think he'd fumble away another season. And I wasn't right about Martin because he was injured... I was right about Martin because he was like RB28 before his injury too. Even if he doesn't go down he likely finishes the season as a RB3 maybe if he turned it on the last few weeks he'd have finished as a RB2. Also yeah, I do want to pat myself on the back for predicting Martin's downfall last season. I was one of like 2 people on these entire boards that I recall saying "Eh, he's going to have a bad season". Everyone else told me I was completely high but to me there was TONS of evidence showing that he was completely way over valued.
That's a lot of assumptions to make on 5 and half games. Bobby Rainey and Mike James were both viable fantasy players during 2013 when Tampa's offense starting playing better football later in the season.
Don't you be bringing any of that kinda talk into the thread now.
Can't let the flaws in his logic go. Had Martin stayed healthy all season and only replicated James' and Rainey's numbers he would have been on the borderline of the top 10. He likely would have outproduced them in all statistical categories, however. Also, before Martin was injured he had scored more points than Eddie Lacy, Chris Johnson, and Ryan Mathews. All of whom finished at or in the top 10 in most leagues by season's end.
Oh, c'mon. He had 116 carries and 21 targets through his first five games (pace of 371/67), so of course he had more points than those guys. Mathews had 67 carries and 7 targets through his first 5 games (there was one stretch of 5 games where Mathews got 121 carries and 19 targets and he put up 534/3+14/95 compared to Martin's 465/1+11/59). Lacy got injured on his first carry in week 2 and missed the next game, so he was at 61 rushes and 4 targets through his team's 5th game. Chris Johnson was closer with 94 carries and 10 targets, but his finish was due to scoring 1 TD through 5 games and 9 TDs through his last 11.

As for James and Rainey, it's a reach to assume a guy who had been plodding away for 5.5 games would step it up just because another player did, but even so, Rainey and James only combined for 3 games with over 75 YFS in the last 10 games of the season. Together they scored 5 rushing TDs and 1 receiving in those 11 games, one from 43 yards and one from 80. I'm hesitant to just hand those over to Dougie, hypothetically.

All signs point to Martin being overhyped and mediocre. He reminds me a lot of Zac Stacy, except Stacy has shown the ability to produce even when the rest of his offense isn't. Martin's current ADP of 16th overall (RB8) seems like quite a reach given his likely reduced workload and poor per play metrics. I think a 4th round redraft price would be fair, amongst the likes of Ben Tate, but behind Mathews (39/RB18).

 
I posted about Martin in a ton of length last season.
So you pat yourself on the back for being "right" on Martin, but refuse to admit being wrong on Wilson because he was injured. Interesting take.
I didn't refuse to be wrong on Wilson? I admitted I was wrong and that I didn't think he'd fumble away another season. And I wasn't right about Martin because he was injured... I was right about Martin because he was like RB28 before his injury too. Even if he doesn't go down he likely finishes the season as a RB3 maybe if he turned it on the last few weeks he'd have finished as a RB2. Also yeah, I do want to pat myself on the back for predicting Martin's downfall last season. I was one of like 2 people on these entire boards that I recall saying "Eh, he's going to have a bad season". Everyone else told me I was completely high but to me there was TONS of evidence showing that he was completely way over valued.
That's a lot of assumptions to make on 5 and half games. Bobby Rainey and Mike James were both viable fantasy players during 2013 when Tampa's offense starting playing better football later in the season.
Don't you be bringing any of that kinda talk into the thread now.
Can't let the flaws in his logic go. Had Martin stayed healthy all season and only replicated James' and Rainey's numbers he would have been on the borderline of the top 10. He likely would have outproduced them in all statistical categories, however. Also, before Martin was injured he had scored more points than Eddie Lacy, Chris Johnson, and Ryan Mathews. All of whom finished at or in the top 10 in most leagues by season's end.
Oh, c'mon. He had 116 carries and 21 targets through his first five games (pace of 371/67), so of course he had more points than those guys. Mathews had 67 carries and 7 targets through his first 5 games (there was one stretch of 5 games where Mathews got 121 carries and 19 targets and he put up 534/3+14/95 compared to Martin's 465/1+11/59). Lacy got injured on his first carry in week 2 and missed the next game, so he was at 61 rushes and 4 targets through his team's 5th game. Chris Johnson was closer with 94 carries and 10 targets, but his finish was due to scoring 1 TD through 5 games and 9 TDs through his last 11.
I think his point was that the season was far from over when Martin went down, and drawing any conclusion as to whether he had a good or bad season is a little misguided.

 

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