Concept Coop
Footballguy
Posted it in the dyansty thread, but figured it's worth it's own conversation:
Is Gordon being overrated a bit, if treated as a top 5 overall player? Or even a top 5 WR? He had a monster year, is a physical freak and is, potentially, a special player. But I think we're overlooking some questions if we expect his 2013 production to continue.
The change in staff is a very concerning variable for Gordon. He played with poor QBs, but his situation was a big plus for him, despite that. Cleveland led the league in passing attempts, and the passes thrown Gordon's way were actually quite catchable. He was put in a situation to play to his strengths, and wasn't pushed to do much outside of them.
A lot of his yardage was racked up in bunches after missed tackles or poor angles, and while he had plenty to do with that and will continue to run away from defenders in the future--see:Cruz, Victor--those plays vary from year to year. Gordon didn't show the ability to dominate in the redzone or beat double coverage. Not to say he can't, but they're two important questions when talking about a top 5 startup pick. Dez Bryant got more redzone attention than anyone outside of Calvin and still finished with 13 TDs - many in the redzone. Could Gordon do the same? In a diffferent offense, and in a season where a couple of his 50+ yard TDs are tipped or otherwise go the other way, he might have to.
I don't think Gordon belongs in the top tier, consisting of Calvin, Dez, Green, Thomas, and Julio. He'd have a valid argument without the off-the-field issues, but not considering them. In fact, I think Alshon Jeffery is a better dynasty own right now. His numbers weren't far behind Gordon's and they came in a more repeatable fashion; he showed that he can beat double teams, dominate in traffic, in the redzone, and his situation is much more stable. We know what to expect. And, most importantly, he's not one strike away from missing a season and putting his career in jeopardy.
Gordon has put his ability to earn money at risk many times in the past, including last season. He got kicked out of two schools and failed multiple tests at Baylor, at least, if not Utah, too. Despite his GM not being a fan of his going into the season, Gordon still got popped for a banned substance. Having a lot to lose hasn't been enough motivation in the past, and past behavior is the best idicator we have for future behavior.
There's plenty of upside with this kid, but I don't see the margin for error needed for a player like him, when spending a first round startup pick. I wouldn't feel comfortable paying that price for Gordon when there are 5 or 6 like prospects with significantly less risk and equal price tags. I think his baseline will prove to be closer to 90/1300/8--very nice numbers. But is that production worth the price paid, considering the risk?
Is Gordon being overrated a bit, if treated as a top 5 overall player? Or even a top 5 WR? He had a monster year, is a physical freak and is, potentially, a special player. But I think we're overlooking some questions if we expect his 2013 production to continue.
The change in staff is a very concerning variable for Gordon. He played with poor QBs, but his situation was a big plus for him, despite that. Cleveland led the league in passing attempts, and the passes thrown Gordon's way were actually quite catchable. He was put in a situation to play to his strengths, and wasn't pushed to do much outside of them.
A lot of his yardage was racked up in bunches after missed tackles or poor angles, and while he had plenty to do with that and will continue to run away from defenders in the future--see:Cruz, Victor--those plays vary from year to year. Gordon didn't show the ability to dominate in the redzone or beat double coverage. Not to say he can't, but they're two important questions when talking about a top 5 startup pick. Dez Bryant got more redzone attention than anyone outside of Calvin and still finished with 13 TDs - many in the redzone. Could Gordon do the same? In a diffferent offense, and in a season where a couple of his 50+ yard TDs are tipped or otherwise go the other way, he might have to.
I don't think Gordon belongs in the top tier, consisting of Calvin, Dez, Green, Thomas, and Julio. He'd have a valid argument without the off-the-field issues, but not considering them. In fact, I think Alshon Jeffery is a better dynasty own right now. His numbers weren't far behind Gordon's and they came in a more repeatable fashion; he showed that he can beat double teams, dominate in traffic, in the redzone, and his situation is much more stable. We know what to expect. And, most importantly, he's not one strike away from missing a season and putting his career in jeopardy.
Gordon has put his ability to earn money at risk many times in the past, including last season. He got kicked out of two schools and failed multiple tests at Baylor, at least, if not Utah, too. Despite his GM not being a fan of his going into the season, Gordon still got popped for a banned substance. Having a lot to lose hasn't been enough motivation in the past, and past behavior is the best idicator we have for future behavior.
There's plenty of upside with this kid, but I don't see the margin for error needed for a player like him, when spending a first round startup pick. I wouldn't feel comfortable paying that price for Gordon when there are 5 or 6 like prospects with significantly less risk and equal price tags. I think his baseline will prove to be closer to 90/1300/8--very nice numbers. But is that production worth the price paid, considering the risk?
