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Indefinite New England Patriots Thread (10 Viewers)
- Thread starter captain_amazing
- Start date
Dynasty
Footballguy
I've been thinking they could get a great deal from Tampa Bay. It's a unique situation where Tampa is the one team which might grossly overpay but it has to happen this offseason.
Edelman will be 34 next season but he actually had a career best 1,117 yards receiving and second-best 100 receptions in 2019.
Boston
Footballguy
You can look at dealing Edelman two ways...one, time to cash in on him as he is 34 and has a ton of mileage...two, he is exactly the type of guy you want around right now...the most important thing for 2020 (as they are currently constructed) is Stidham's development and there is no doubt that Edelman helps in that area...you don't want to stunt his development by having no weapons...also, Edelman is a heart and soul guy and is the type of guy along with Slater and McCourty that you want to be around for the beginning of this next era...losing Brady takes away a huge piece of that locker-room so you need to be careful about losing too many foundation pieces at once.
Jacksonke1
Footballguy
Because of the bromance, I worry Jules will be depressed all season over the loss of Tom.
One of the toughest guys in the league, but that may be too much to overcome.
One of the toughest guys in the league, but that may be too much to overcome.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Boston
Footballguy
Yes...but when that QB is Tom Brady who outside of one ACL 12 years ago has been beyond durable that is a gamble you could take...I will be real disappointed if they don't bring in a rookie...doesn't have to be a first round pick but maybe someone like Fromm...the hope is Stidham is the real deal but if not I would like another dice roll...if they can figure out their QB situation next season they have an amazing salary cap situation next year so they could really transition to the post-Brady era very quickly.
Faust
MVP
With Tom Brady on the Patriots roster for the last 10+ years - how many times would they have needed to roster more than two quarterbacks?
The reality is that we are in uncharted territory with how the Patriots will approach their quarterback depth chart and quarterback development.
Boston
Footballguy
I don't think a lot of the non-local guys take Stidham starting seriously which I do think is their plan...they have had the kid for a full year and it appears they are comfortable giving him a shot...if it works out it just makes everything else going forward that much easier...no doubt what they do in the draft will be the ultimate indicator of what they really feel about the kid because as Anarchy has kept pointing out a veteran QB is a real stretch when you look at their cap situation.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Still waiting for an article that discusses Stidham being the starter and what the offense would look like with him under center, what pieces they may bring in around him, etc.. I did see an article or two with a headline that Stidham was the starter, but that was mostly by default and those articles immediately shifted to who NE will bring in . . . either by FA signing, trade, or the draft. I really am getting curious as to what the media thinks they know that we don't . . . or do they not understand how the salary cap works (in terms of FA signings or trade)? Many mock drafts I have seen have the Pats either trading way up to grab a QB or standing put to get a QB in the first round. I don't see them making a huge move to move up in the draft or taking a QB at 23, but they will probably see who is still around in the third round or later as a developmental guy as Stidham insurance.
Forgot to mention that the main reason Stidham is getting classified as "not being ready" is because he threw a pick six against the Jets and they put Brady back in to finish the game. That's what some folks are sticking with. If Stidham came in and threw 3 picks or 3 TDs, I would say neither one of those would be a precursor for how his career would be likely to go.
Forgot to mention that the main reason Stidham is getting classified as "not being ready" is because he threw a pick six against the Jets and they put Brady back in to finish the game. That's what some folks are sticking with. If Stidham came in and threw 3 picks or 3 TDs, I would say neither one of those would be a precursor for how his career would be likely to go.
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elguapo07
Footballguy
How is he ready is the question. An underwhelming last year at Aub and just a one yr apprenticeship now inherits an offense with only JE and JW as the only playmakers with an OL that should improve but has question marks. Doesn't look like he's set up to succeed this year.
I'd be happy with a big step back this year if it allows them to make a package for Lawrence/Fields in '21
I'd be happy with a big step back this year if it allows them to make a package for Lawrence/Fields in '21
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I've outlined here and in the Stidham thread multiple reasons why Stidham is not a bad option . . . mostly because the Pats are choosing to go with him. As more has come out, NE had to know Brady really wasn't interested in returning to the Patriots and his departure feel in the "more likely than not" category. Yet here we are and Stidham is the one at the top of the depth chart. Maybe that will change, but they would need to move heaven and earth to get an established starter in under the cap. Who knows if they will make a splash in the draft . . . but that should be the last hurdle for Stidham to clear (unless someone like Winston, Newton, or Dalton wants to play for the league minimum),
I know people will say NE is going from the GOAT to an unproven second year player, but after looking back at Brady's stats from last season, he really wasn't all that impressive. People will point to his lack of weapons, weak OL, and lack of separation . . . but the analytics have shown that all of those were gross exaggerations. Brady started the season strong the first few weeks, but after that he had:
- 9 games with an interception
- 9 games with either 0 or 1 TD.
- 7 games with less than 225 yards passing
- 7 games with a YPA of under 6
- 5 games with 3 or more sacks
- 5 games with a passer rating of less than 70
- A passer rating of 80.5
After 3 games, Brady had a TD to INT ration of 8-0. From that point on, he threw 16 TD and 9 INT. True, they did not have a real red zone threat. And maybe some of the INT's were due to confusion among the receivers. But he also had several passes that should have been picked and weren't.
The point being, the numbers Brady put up were not the numbers he had several years ago, meaning that Stidham would not be trying to come in and replace Patrick Mahomes. His 80.5 passer rating over those last 14 games ranked him only above Kyle Allen, Baker Mayfield, and Andy Dalton (of qualifying QBs).
We don't know who will be on the roster once the season opens up, but we do know that the offense had a ton of injuries last year. We also know Stidham had a ton of practice last year working with the first team offense (all of OTA's, a lot in training game, the first day of practice all season (a load management day for Brady), and many second days of practice (Brady hurt). Defensively players in the secondary have come out praising how well he did in practice . . . and NE had the #1 ranked secondary in the league last year.
Bottom line, even with just better health on offense, I don't think it would be out of line to suggest that Stidham could do better than Brady did LAST YEAR. I am not suggesting he will be better in Year 1 than Brady in his peak years. Will he make mistakes and throw some dumb interceptions? Yep. Will the offense probably still look watered down and there may not be a ton of Grade A weapons? Yep. Do they still have BB as the coach? Yep. If the defense is solid again (the secondary will be . . . the verdict is still out on the DL and LB corps), then they should be competitive in most games.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
That they need clicks and there is almost nothing to write about this time of year. Not even 40-yard dash times at Pro-Days.
Boston
Footballguy
Two things...one, we are in the ultimate in Bill we trust situation with Sitdham...two, I just don't see them being bad enough to sniff those guys...I do see them taking a step backwards (and if injuries hit it could be pretty big) this year because they have a lot of holes to fill but you are gonna have to be a 2-4 win team to get one of those guys, I don't see that happening...the two biggest things that can happen this year is Stidham or a draft pick proving they are the QB of the future and they have a solid draft this year as well as a few of the guys that were drafted in the past two years who have battled injuries produce...if that happens you have a nice foundation to an off-season where they will have a ridiculous amount of cap space...if they finish 8-8 but those things happen I will be very happy.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I agree . . . so wouldn't someone get MORE clicks by going against the grain? The articles out there are all pretty similar. Which free agent will NE pick up? Which college QB will they draft? ESPN released their team rankings based on talent evaluation for each NFL roster. NE was 27th. You can find those types of articles and opinions everywhere. Not many (any) opinions that Stidham is the likely guy to start . . . and how things might shape up from there. Unless there are more clicks available in a collective herd mentality that people will click on a negative Pats article (which certainly is possible).
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Between this draft and next draft, they have a projected 25 draft picks. Plus they have guys from the last couple of drafts that haven't seen the field or were put on IR. By next year, that could be an infusion of 30+ players to work with (in addition to the $100+ million in cap space they currently have to play with). That number will start dropping once they start filling out the roster, but they should be in a lot better place than they are now and won't have to eat the ton of dead cap money they are stuck with for this year.
Boston
Footballguy
It is all about hitting draft picks right now...BB has had his runs of very good and not so good drafts...no room for error right now...will be interesting to see what we are saying about Harry, Wynn, Bentley, Joejuan Williams, Cajuste, Frohldt and Damien Harris this time next year...this group is full of question marks...if they can make an impact it will be like having two draft classes this year.
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elguapo07
Footballguy
6-10 gets them close to a top 10 pick next year. I think they could create a package that could get them in top 5 for '21. I don't think they will be drafting late 1st round next year.
NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
You know I agree with you on Stidham completely but i don't agree with times like these where I feel you go a little overboard with the criticism of Brady.
I disagree with the highlighted above, analytics has not shown that.
PFF had him 10th overall in passing grade last year and wrote a pretty good article describing why.
Im rooting for Stidham and with better team health and weapons I think he might be pretty good this yr. But imho the bar isn't as low as you are portraying and the chances of him being better than PFFs 10th rated passer are probably not that great.
Having said all that if the your main point is Stidham doesn't have to be an all pro for NE to be successful and just needs to be decent then I tend to agree.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Like I posted earlier, if Stidham threw a TD in garbage time against the Jets, would that mean he is any more ready to start this year? Whatever he did in a handful of snaps last year is not a reflection of whether he is ready to start or not. I am pretty confident BB knows what he is doing for his team. Whether Stidham ends up being Bill’s choice or how Stidham does remains to be seen.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
elguapo07
Footballguy
Starting to wonder if Bill B. is a member of the WHO and had insight into the current pandemic. Probably said to himself, "the hell with Brady. The 2020 NFL season may be completely disrupted so why waste $'s on what could be the final year he has in the league."
Also, if 2020 is completely disrupted, why not just stick with Stidham for now, completely bail on the 2020 draft (and trade into the 2021; or maybe take one to three decent shots) draft, and then have a ton of cap to play with as well in 2021.
Tank in 2020 since this year could be a disaster anyway.
Also, if 2020 is completely disrupted, why not just stick with Stidham for now, completely bail on the 2020 draft (and trade into the 2021; or maybe take one to three decent shots) draft, and then have a ton of cap to play with as well in 2021.
Tank in 2020 since this year could be a disaster anyway.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
At the risk of being repetitive, BB is not going to tank. There is no reason to tank. They are still returning the core of a defense that was very strong and the best secondary in the league. And they are getting a fresh start with a bunch of healthier bodies on offense. Despite the perception to the contrary, they had a highly rated offensive line last year and it should be better this year with Wynn healthier, Andrews returning, and guys they drafted last year that went on IR.
And why would they bail on the 2020 draft? They have a dozen picks? There aren't any good players in this draft? I don't get this part at all.
Boston
Footballguy
The D concerns me (at least compared to last year)...Van Noys, Collins, Roberts, Shelton and Harmon are all gone and all had significant to decent roles last year (and I have zero issues with them moving on but it still may hurt this year)...while last year's D was really good it was not one built on superior talent outside of a few guys but more playing very well as a unit...an injury to Hightower could be a killer as the LB corps is a huge question mark...Chung is beginning to break down and the McCourty boys are not getting any younger...I definitely could see this unit taking a step backwards, especially the first half of the year as they integrate some new players...overall I see this pretty much as a transition year...as I said above, if they end up at .500 but Stidham is legit and the youngsters are developing I will be very happy.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
Certainly the Patriots are a work in progress and there are a lot of question marks. But I also think the more the league is up in the air, the more that helps NE (if nothing else, BB will have his team better prepared). They have 9 games against coaches with 3 or fewer years of head coaching experience and could have another 9 games against teams with QB's with limited starting experience depending upon which direction opponents go at QB (which is who they have beaten up on for many years). Again, way too soon to guess what happens for lots of situations with both the league as a whole, the team, and opponents to really know much of anything at this point.
Unlike the offense, the defense had more healthy guys than they could play. Joejuan Williams barely got to play (who knows if he will be suspended). Winovich looked good in a limited role. I believe they still have DL Byron Cowart, who they drafted last year. At one point Bentley looked like he could play a role at ILB . . . not sure if there is an opportunity for him to do more.
In the main, I do agree with prior assessment that the NE drafts in recent years haven't been all that spectacular. Maybe we will get to see what Harry can do if healthy and if Harris actually is a participating member of the team this year.
I'm not all that familiar with some of the new faces, and I certainly won't have heard of many of the guys they will end up drafting. Bill has been able to bring guys in and get them to work out (Van Noy, Flowers, Trent Brown, Butler, Jonathan Jones, etc.). Which begs the question, are they less likely to keep hitting on shots in the dark? Or are they more likely to hit on shots in the dark because they have done it a number of times?
NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
Rex Ryan: Brady made Patriots great, give Belichick Geno Smith and see if he wins
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/04/08/rex-ryan-brady-made-patriots-great-give-belichick-geno-smith-and-see-if-he-wins/
I happen to feel it was mutually beneficial but there are those who feel otherwise.....
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/04/08/rex-ryan-brady-made-patriots-great-give-belichick-geno-smith-and-see-if-he-wins/
I happen to feel it was mutually beneficial but there are those who feel otherwise.....
rockaction
Footballguy
Damn. I just poked around for five minutes looking and found "Why the Pats won't sign Cam Newton."
Anarchy99
Footballguy
For the people that have been asking me who has been saying NE will be terrible, I believe Michael Holly threw out a 4-12 prediction for NE this year, netting them a Top 5 pick in 2021. That’s with Stidham starting and them trying all season and not tanking. Basically, he expects both the offense and defense to be terrible.
elguapo07
Footballguy
Because they'd lose year 1 of low rookie salaries if the year is a complete bust.
I'm not saying ditch the entire draft, but possibly focus on quality vs. quantity this year and punt some picks into 2021.
And this wouldn't be a "tank" it would be a "transition" into 2021 where they'll have a ton of cap room.
Boston
Footballguy
This guy has a good handle on the Pats going into the draft:
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/how-patriots-can-have-perfect-2020-nfl-draft-in-five-steps-staring-with-adding-another-qb-to-the-mix/
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/how-patriots-can-have-perfect-2020-nfl-draft-in-five-steps-staring-with-adding-another-qb-to-the-mix/
Anarchy99
Footballguy
BB literally has NEVER done what the consensus had NE doing. I think they go DE / LB / Edge at 23 and trade Thuney for a 2nd and could use that pick to replace him. Will probably take a WR on Day 2 somewhere and the TE from Dayton in the 3rd. QB later on . . . someone like the QBs from FIU or James Madison. Probably a safety and DL as well. Definitely don’t see them burning multiple picks to move up to take a QB. Pretty sure they rate Stidham on the same level after the Big 3 rookie QBs.
Boston
Footballguy
With three #3's if they trade down in the first that will probably set off a bunch of other trades as they try to move up and down with all these picks...while I think they would love Tua I just don't see them having the ammo (only #23 in the first and no second) to make an offer that probably can't be beat pretty easily by another team...and as you said they are starting to spring a lot of leaks and they are not in a position to make an overwhelming offer that only lands one player even if it is a QB.
Boston
Footballguy
If they deal Thuney (and that would not surprise anyone) the O line becomes a major issue...looking at the potential starters as of now, Wynn is still a work in progress and cannot stay healthy, Thuney could be gone, Andrews is a major question mark (and Karras is gone), Mason is solid and Cannon will be 32 in a few weeks and did not have a good year last year...and let's not forget Dante is gone so the days of turning college wrestlers and undrafted free agents into good players make not be a regular thing anymore...this unit has a ton of room for error and could totally hinder a young QBs development.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
I guess it depends how you look at it. If Thuney ISN'T traded, they return Wynn-Thuney-Andrews-Mason-Cannon, which should be solid if healthy. The OL after Wynn came back last year was one of the strengths of the team over the second half of the season and got praise and high rankings from PFF. They also have the two offensive lineman they drafted last year that were put in mothballs. The range of outcomes and how good the line is ranges from very high to very low with all parts in between. I would at least guess Dante would be available like he was last time he retired. They had him as a consultant and while he wasn't there everyday, he was there a lot in training camp and they brought him in other times to work with younger linemen. It remains to be seen how "gone" he really is.
With Thuney and Andrews coming back, I don't see how OL v.2020 would be worse than OL v.2019, and last year's OL play was very good once they got healthier and unified by the end of the season. Running the ball would also go smoother with a healthy FB, and you have to think that they will get a TE in from somewhere.
But overall this should serve to amplify my point, which was they have bigger fish to fry and other holes / needs to fill than QB. IMO, it doesn't make good business sense to move probably 3 coveted draft picks to jump up in the draft to take a QB that may not be any better than Stidham (at least in their evaluation). Which is why I don't think they would do that.
Boston
Footballguy
If Wynn can stay healthy, if Andrews comes back from a serious issue, if Thuney comes back and if Cannon does not continue to regress they should be good...the issue is if a few of these ifs don't pan out they could be dramatically worse then 2019...those two kids that they drafted last year panning out would go a long way towards settling this situation down and they appear to have hope for the kid they got from Baltimore...if they don't get this area settled down it's gonna be real difficult to develop a younq QB regardless of who it is.
Boston
Footballguy
Tough to get more then that...this was probably the only place he would unretire for and if he doesn’t go you get nothing...he was never gonna play for the Pats again so The Pats did not have any leverage (he also had all the leverage due to their cap situation)...fully expect the Pats to make about 10 draft pick trades this weekend and this is another asset to work with.Only a 4th for Gronk
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Casting Couch
Footballguy
I would have asked for Cameron Brate along with the 4th. He's a decent, underrated TE. Instant plug in starter for Belichick.