Brady can expect to see a lot of blitzing from the Packers defense, which has sent extra men on 178 opposing quarterback dropbacks (fifth-most in the NFL). But that’s of little concern to him. Brady’s QBR against the blitz is 93.1, best in the league.
Rodgers ranks fourth-best against the blitz, but he probably won’t see it often. The Patriots have blitzed 97 times, 28th-most in the NFL.
And the matchup you might not (but that you should watch closely)
The Green Bay Packers rank first in the NFL in Expected Points Added (EPA) on offense. The New England Patriots rank third. In other words, their offenses have performed with the highest level of success in the NFL
The Packers rank 11th in Defensive EPA. The Patriots rank 13th.
The two teams are fairly even within those two aspects of the game.
But where do they differ?
The biggest differential is in special teams’ performance. The Patriots have the edge there by a good margin.
The Patriots rank second in the NFL in special teams EPA. The Packers rank 26th.
The Patriots’ special team excellence comes in a couple of areas.
Their kicker, Stephen Gostowski, leads the NFL with 26 field goals and has missed only once all season. He ranks eighth in kicking accuracy over the last three seasons (90 percent). Packers kicker
Mason Crosby ranks 35th in that same span (79.5 percent), though he’s a steady 16 for 18 on tries this season.
The Patriots are also helped by a pair of blocked kicks against opponents field goals. Opposing kickers are 19 for 24 against them this season. Opponents are 15 for 16 against the Packers.
The Patriots have a solid kick return game on both ends, ranking sixth in yards per kick return and fifth in yards per kick return allowed. The Packers are 27th and 24th.