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Indefinite New England Patriots Thread (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter captain_amazing
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Insoxicated
It really says something about how spoiled we are as a fanbase when folks are calling "season down the tubes" when we are 5-2 (Despite playing a top 10 schedule), on a 4 game win streak, and are still Vegas favorites to win the SuperBowl.
This is a 12-4 or 11-5 team that is still finding its groove. The loss of Hightower cannot be overstated, but this D is playing much improved ball over the last few weeks. I think a trip to the AFC Championship game is a very reasonable thing to hope for, at this point. From there, all bets are off. If we can keep everyone healthy from here, I think this team is very much still in the hunt.
This is a 12-4 or 11-5 team that is still finding its groove. The loss of Hightower cannot be overstated, but this D is playing much improved ball over the last few weeks. I think a trip to the AFC Championship game is a very reasonable thing to hope for, at this point. From there, all bets are off. If we can keep everyone healthy from here, I think this team is very much still in the hunt.
My bad, it was Anarchy that said it was getting harder to believe In Bill We Trust, I responded to him and you responded to me responding to him and I just assumed you were the same person. Regardless, their defense has been much better over the last four weeks in regards to giving up points.
wilked
Footballguy
No, defense has been terrible, they just got lucky four games in a row like hump says
Very specifically here are a couple who have gotten better:
Van Noy - has really impressed and continues to improve. I think with High out he is one that will step up as a leader on that D
Bademosi - Plays great man coverage, physical, he has impressed a lot in the last few games
--
Big picture, what I have seen is Scar stabilize the line and thus keep Brady upright, and the defense seems to 'communicate' / organize better, and execute better. A number of the big plays given up early in the season were clearly miscommunication / confusion plays - you don't see those now. Secondary has played great vs pass. LBs are improving vs the run. At this point in the season I want to see the offense improve. Their offense should be putting up 30+ per game and it's been stuck at 20 a game right now. Thankfully it coincided with the D stepping up, but to make a run the offense needs to be counted on for 30 vs most teams.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
The issue many people have had with BB this season is not trying harder to keep guys that aren’t there now (which I am not as concerned with) and not really hitting on guys they added in the offseason (which I have more of an issue with).
Allen still hasnt caught a pass. Gillislee hasn’t done much since Week 1. Ealy didn’t even make the team. Neither did the TE they traded for from KC. Brissett is starting in IND and Dorsett has been mostly invisible. Burkhead hasn’t done much (granted he got hurt). Cooks has had some big games but some not so big games. No matter how you slice it, Gilmore has been a bust so far.
That was what I meant when referring to you can’t always trust BB. The team is still winning, but oddly enough the defense currently looks better than the offense does. They are really struggling to get in the end zone.
Yeah, that's what I said.wilked said:No, defense has been terrible, they just got lucky four games in a row like hump says
Very specifically here are a couple who have gotten better:
Van Noy - has really impressed and continues to improve. I think with High out he is one that will step up as a leader on that D
Bademosi - Plays great man coverage, physical, he has impressed a lot in the last few games
--
Big picture, what I have seen is Scar stabilize the line and thus keep Brady upright, and the defense seems to 'communicate' / organize better, and execute better. A number of the big plays given up early in the season were clearly miscommunication / confusion plays - you don't see those now. Secondary has played great vs pass. LBs are improving vs the run. At this point in the season I want to see the offense improve. Their offense should be putting up 30+ per game and it's been stuck at 20 a game right now. Thankfully it coincided with the D stepping up, but to make a run the offense needs to be counted on for 30 vs most teams.
They've been better (hard for them to not have been considering how bad they were), but they certainly haven't been great. They gave up over 400 yards to both Tampa and the Jets, they had a very questionable call go their way against ASJ, and this week they had two huge plays called back, one because he barely stepped out of bounds first and another TD on a questionable offensive PI call, another ball slipped out of Rivers hand which gave them their only sack of the day and knocked them out of FG position, another missed FG attempt, etc. Another factor has been the time of possession, their defense has only been on the field 49 minutes in the last two games combined.
Forgive me if I don't think they've been lights out.
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AngryPatriot
Footballguy
I thought Bademosi sucked yesterday. Whatever "zone" coverage it was was just crap. LAC suck or it would've been a loss. They win games lately but you just sit there and feel kinda crappy about it because you know how they're really playing. A few break there and there, get the W. At least the D has been better the last 2 games. I think some of the play calling has been crap and McDaniels is to blame- lack of creativity, vanilla predictable stuff. There's a lot of 3rd and long, over and over. Cooks has been disappointing or underused, idk, but he's killing me fantasy wise! Where's this great separating speed? Brady forces it into triple coverage... he's lucky he doesn't have about 4 more picks. Amendola needs to get healthy. No news yet on Hogan but I thought his arm was broken by the looks of the hit.... fingers crossed! Trade for TY Hilton!!!!!
wilked
Footballguy
The thing is though Bill has always let the other team have yards. That's why the Pats have the reputation of bend but don't break... 2014 they were 20th in the league in yards allowed. 2015 they were 24th. Last year much better (8th). The game is won by points, not yards. I will have to find it, but there was a chart of the last 5 or 10 seasons, scatter plot with yards allowed on one axis and points allowed on the other. Very linear with a few points that fell off the line of best fit - most of those points were the Patriots teams.Yeah, that's what I said.
They've been better (hard for them to not have been considering how bad they were), but they certainly haven't been great. They gave up over 400 yards to both Tampa and the Jets, they had a very questionable call go their way against ASJ, and this week they had two huge plays called back, one because he barely stepped out of bounds first and another TD on a questionable offensive PI call, another ball slipped out of Rivers hand which gave them their only sack of the day and knocked them out of FG position, another missed FG attempt, etc. Another factor has been the time of possession, their defense has only been on the field 49 minutes in the last two games combined.
Forgive me if I don't think they've been lights out.
The issue the first 4 games is they were giving up yards AND points. They seemed to have made adjustments, and now are giving up yards without points. You can point to a few missed plays from the other team, but I am sure you can find just as many on the Pats side of the ball too. That's called football.
I think you've got your numbers mixed up- I'm showing them being 9th in yards in 2015, not 24th, so they were top 10 the last 2 years.
In any event, when you jumped into the conversation I was just saying that context matters. They may have only given up an average of 14 points per game or so over their last 4, but that doesn't tell the whole story. The plays I gave aren't just normal everyday plays in football, they were pretty fluky things/blown calls that saved their D from giving up quite a few more points. Like I said, they've played better than they started, but I still don't think they're very good.
wilked
Footballguy
Still got your numbers mixed up?
To answer your question, no, I still don't think their defense is very good, but their schedule is cake so they should put up decent numbers at least.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
After an awful start, the defense has been very good. They have allowed 12.5 points per game in the last six games. Sounds very good to me.
wilked
Footballguy
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
ours one out for Terry Glenn:RIP GB.
Boston
Footballguy
SengerCJ
Footballguy
this Steelers/Patriots match up in a few weeks may be quite a game.
Steelers remaining opponents records:
5-6, 5-6, 4-6, 0-11.
Patriots remaining opponents records:
6-5, 4-7, 6-5, 4-7
even if the patriots and/or Steelers lose one of those games, the head to head match up still decides the #1 seed. Any chance that game gets flexed to SNF or does the NFL only do that for the final two weeks?
Steelers remaining opponents records:
5-6, 5-6, 4-6, 0-11.
Patriots remaining opponents records:
6-5, 4-7, 6-5, 4-7
even if the patriots and/or Steelers lose one of those games, the head to head match up still decides the #1 seed. Any chance that game gets flexed to SNF or does the NFL only do that for the final two weeks?
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davewwright
Footballguy
Bossman
Footballguy
Anyone think the Steelers wouldn't have lost by 3 TD's last night if Rogers was QB?
I'm not impressed with PIT and I think thier defense is still pretty weak.
Unfortunately the league is as weak as ever and there aren't many good tests on the schedule for these teams.
NE has looked much better on D.
They actually brought a couple of well timed blitzes yesterday. Very effective. ... maybe the coaching staff is feeling more confident in their CB's at this point.
I'm not impressed with PIT and I think thier defense is still pretty weak.
Unfortunately the league is as weak as ever and there aren't many good tests on the schedule for these teams.
NE has looked much better on D.
They actually brought a couple of well timed blitzes yesterday. Very effective. ... maybe the coaching staff is feeling more confident in their CB's at this point.
SengerCJ
Footballguy
SengerCJ
Footballguy
Steelers seem to be playing down to competition this season. While it would've probably still been competitive, I do see the Packers winning with Rodgers.
Ill be at Paul Brown next Monday rooting on the Bengals. Though, as I pointed out, even with a loss, Pitt/NE is still likely to decide the #1 seed.
Wonder how these two bills match ups will go, haven't watched much of Buffalo this season.
devouredbychaos
Footballguy
Couldn't agree more about the Steelers defense. The stats on paper are a bit misleading I feel, and their secondary doesn't seem much better than when they got lit up by the Patriots last January. Haden looked serviceable until he got hurt, but he's still not the same player he was 5 years ago. Hilton and Davis have been decent, Burns is still getting burned on a regular basis, and Mitchell isn't anything special. I don't see anyone in that group slowing down Cooks, Gronk, Hogan, Burkhead, etc. I mean Brett Hundley just put up 245yds and 3 TDs against them, so I don't see Brady having much of an issue.Bossman said:
One interesting nugget I came across after yesterday's win: That's the 7th straight game in which the Patriots have limited opponents to 17 points or fewer. Only the fourth team to do it in the past decade. Granted the defense hasn't been going against Rodgers or Wilson every week, but they have gone up against Ryan, Rivers, Carr, and Winston during the current span.
As always though, health will be the main issue with this team. Bennett and Ebner to IR. Van Noy, Waddle, Flowers, all hurt yesterday. Getting this team healthy for a playoff run is a much bigger task than getting the #1 seed in my opinion, considering the way they've played on the road over the past year or so.
Also did anyone catch Tomlin's interview with Dungy on SNF last night? He's already looking ahead to their matchup in a few weeks..and to the rematch in the AFC Championship. Crazy how much the Patriots get in these guys heads. Can you imagine if Belichick already started talking about playing another team in the playoffs when it's still only November?
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wilked
Footballguy
Weeks 5-current (5-12).
Pats have given up the fewest points, just a shade ahead of Jax
Pats given up 13.1 points/gm, Jax given up 13.4/gm
Meanwhile Denver has given up 29.4/gm, second worst only to Buffalo
They are not an "elite defense", and not as good as Jax, but they are a top 10 defense and that should be good enough given their offense
Big Blue Wrecking Crew
downsized
Any updates on Hogan's possible return?
BroncoFreak_2K3
sucker for Orange
wilked
Footballguy
Reporter trying to ask about Guerrero. This is amazing
http://patriotswire.usatoday.com/2017/12/20/bill-belichick-has-truly-awkward-exchange-with-reporter-after-questions-about-alex-guerrero/
http://patriotswire.usatoday.com/2017/12/20/bill-belichick-has-truly-awkward-exchange-with-reporter-after-questions-about-alex-guerrero/
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Insoxicated
So, how do we think we stack up?
Assuming we can get it done Sunday (no sure thing), does this team have what it takes to repeat.. or at least make the SB? The line woes concern me.
Realistically we would be looking at a resurgent KC, then IF we can get that monkey off our back, a strong PIT/JAX in the AFC title game. HFA is huge and certainly bumps our odds up a touch... but I’m not buying the “pats as huge favorites to win it all again” line vegas is feeding me.
Assuming we can get it done Sunday (no sure thing), does this team have what it takes to repeat.. or at least make the SB? The line woes concern me.
Realistically we would be looking at a resurgent KC, then IF we can get that monkey off our back, a strong PIT/JAX in the AFC title game. HFA is huge and certainly bumps our odds up a touch... but I’m not buying the “pats as huge favorites to win it all again” line vegas is feeding me.
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wilked
Footballguy
They’ve been one of the highest injured teams this year, so I don’t think we’ve seen what they are capable. First priority is healing up and getting healthy.
Defense is suspect, meaning they will need to beat teams generally by punching harder than them. Brady has seemed off the last 4 games...rumors of an Achilles injury. A resurgent gronk is the best medicine for that though.
i don’t see a better team. Yes they are not as dominant as in the past, but give them the bye and HFA and you’ll have them favored in both AFC playofff games. What more could you ask?
Defense is suspect, meaning they will need to beat teams generally by punching harder than them. Brady has seemed off the last 4 games...rumors of an Achilles injury. A resurgent gronk is the best medicine for that though.
i don’t see a better team. Yes they are not as dominant as in the past, but give them the bye and HFA and you’ll have them favored in both AFC playofff games. What more could you ask?
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I guess it depends which NE players are back in the mix come playoff time.[icon] said:
Burkhead? Hogan? Does Mitchell finally make an appearance? White might not go this week.
Waddle? Van Noy? Flowers? Branch? Brown?
I think part of the reason the Pats are favored is the lack of confidence in the other options. The Steelers haven't fared well in NE (0-5 on the road vs. Brady). The Jags haven't beaten Brady (0-7). Smith hasn't advanced very far in the post season (2-4 career post season record). Admittedly, history doesn't count for any future games or outcomes.
As far as the wildcard options, BAL always gives the Pats a game but has struggled offensively. I don't remember the Titans putting up much of a fight in recent games with NE. Can the Bills come in and win a playoff game in Foxboro? The Chargers might match up well with the Pats, but even if they win out they still need a lot of help to even make the playoffs.
So the first game options are likely going to be one of KC, BAL, TEN, BUF, or SD. The AFCCG would likely be the winner of JAX / PIT. They should win the first game, and you play to get home field advantage to have a leg up on the second game. They still have BB, Brady, and Gronk, and that was enough to squeak by in Pittsburgh.
Bossman
Footballguy
I think they (not we) could be beat by any of the playoff contenders.[icon] said:
Their offense can't convert 3rd downs and the defense has looked as bad as it's been in a long time these past couple of weeks.
Maybe they've been holding back for the big playoff push but by look on Matt Patricias face last week, they just don't have an answer right now.
Should they happen to make the SB, I would expect whichever team makes it from the NFC to be the favorite ... and rightfully so.
That being said, I like the fact that victory is in doubt. Makes it that much more satisfying when they win.
Think we get by Steelers without AB. Assume NE gets healthier as well by playoff time.[icon] said:
Can't picture a N. Foles, J. Goff, C. Keenum beating NE. Nope.
Two teams that would concern me -- JAX and CAR. Two tough overall Ds. Both have defensive fronts that could get after Brady.
Bossman
Footballguy
What have you seen about the NE defense that makes you think any of these QB's would struggle?
Weak pass rush, DB's are playing poorly, LB corps are arguably the worst in the league.
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Bossman
Footballguy
They were saved by AB getting hurt last week (and a dumb pass catch rule) ... otherwise they'd be in jeopardy of losing their 3rd in a row this week and likely having to play week 1 of the playoffs.
This is about as weak of a NE team we've seen in a long time ... on both sides of the ball. (injuries are to blame)
3rd and 2 used to be almost automatic for these guys ... now it's a 50/50. Last week was Gronkowski or bust. They need other options on 3rd down.
Not sure when he'll be back but maybe the return of Hogan will help.
Today will be a good test to see if they can fix some of the issues vs a feisty BUF team.
This is about as weak of a NE team we've seen in a long time ... on both sides of the ball. (injuries are to blame)
3rd and 2 used to be almost automatic for these guys ... now it's a 50/50. Last week was Gronkowski or bust. They need other options on 3rd down.
Not sure when he'll be back but maybe the return of Hogan will help.
Today will be a good test to see if they can fix some of the issues vs a feisty BUF team.
Bossman
Footballguy
Patriots really need some help on defense.
Not sure Harrison can provide any but he certainly has plenty of experience.
I don't believe this was solely for "information" gathering. I think NE genuinely needs LB depth.
Will PIT live to regret cutting him .... ala Legarrette Blunt?
Not sure Harrison can provide any but he certainly has plenty of experience.
I don't believe this was solely for "information" gathering. I think NE genuinely needs LB depth.
Will PIT live to regret cutting him .... ala Legarrette Blunt?