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Bob Magaw

Official Odell Beckham, Jr.

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The draft's #2 WR

Vic Tafur ‏@VicTafur

@Edwerderespn: Nobody in the NFL will be surprised if LSU WR Odell Beckham Jr picked before Texas A&M’s Mike Evans.” >> should be

Is he saying Beckham should be picked ahead of Evans, or that people should be surprised if he is? Could read either way.

I took it as no one in the NFL should be surprised if OBJ is picked before Evans. That statement could be read about 4 different ways. Vic was smart, since being right is the most important thing and he's covering his bases with that tweet.

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The draft's #2 WR

Vic Tafur @VicTafur

@Edwerderespn: Nobody in the NFL will be surprised if LSU WR Odell Beckham Jr picked before Texas A&M’s Mike Evans.” >> should be

Is he saying Beckham should be picked ahead of Evans, or that people should be surprised if he is? Could read either way.

The original comment was:

Ed Werder @Edwerderespn

Nobody in the NFL will be surprised if LSU WR Odell Beckham Jr picked before Texas A&M's Mike Evans.

Vic Tafur added the ">> should be" comment at the end of the original posting on Twitter.

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Rotoworld take:

According to ESPN's Ed Werder, "nobody in the NFL will be surprised" if Odell Beckham is drafted ahead of Mike Evans on Thursday.

NFL teams seem smitten with Beckham despite his limited size (5'11/198), as he's been linked to clubs drafting as early as Tampa at No. 7 overall, Buffalo at No. 9, Detroit at No. 10, and the Giants at No. 12. We consider 9-16 to be the "sweet spot" for Beckham's draft slot. Our main takeaway from this Werder report is that perhaps Evans will not be drafted as early as people expect.

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They are very different players. Evans is well behind Beckham in terms of speed, quickness, and elusiveness.

I will say that players of Beckham's sort rarely go in the top 10, so it would be a big surprise to see him that high. In recent years I feel like the undersized-but-explosive types like Lee Evans, Santana Moss, Percy Harvin, and Kendall Wright have usually topped out in the 15-20 range.

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They are very different players. Evans is well behind Beckham in terms of speed, quickness, and elusiveness.

I will say that players of Beckham's sort rarely go in the top 10, so it would be a big surprise to see him that high. In recent years I feel like the undersized-but-explosive types like Lee Evans, Santana Moss, Percy Harvin, and Kendall Wright have usually topped out in the 15-20 range.

Austin and Ginn were both top 10.

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Both of those guys also had unreal game speed. Two of the fastest I've ever seen. Beckham is not a true track star type of burner.

Ginn pick was horrible anyway and Austin pick may be headed in that direction.

I like Beckham, but him as a top 10 pick seems like a moderate reach.

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Yeah, years ago I liked Ginn and was dead wrong. I never really liked Austin, not at 8 anyway. He should have been back of round 1 guy IMO. I think OBJ is a better football player than either of them. The draft is deep so he probably has not shot going top 10. In other years he might have though.

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Rotoworld:

ESPN's Rich Cimini reports that an NFL personnel director told him that, even though the Jets like LSU WR Odell Beckham Jr., he's not sure if they will trade into the top 10 for him.

"One personnel director told me Odell Beckham a better prospect than Evans. Jets really like OBJ, but not sure he'd be worth trade into top 10," Cimini tweeted. According to NFL.com's Ian Rapoport, it's been rumored that the Jets were "very hot" on Beckham Jr, but trading up in the top ten could be too much to give up, with such a deep wide receiver class full of talent. If Odell Beckham Jr. does drop in striking range, the Jets could potentially pull the trigger if he is their target.

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If he goes to the Jets does he drop in your rankings?

He'll be their #1 receiver... Vick will be throwing him the ball. Absolutely not.

#2 WR in this class regardless of where he ends up in my book.

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If he goes to the Jets does he drop in your rankings?

He'll be their #1 receiver... Vick will be throwing him the ball. Absolutely not.

#2 WR in this class regardless of where he ends up in my book.

Geno is the proclaimed starter in NYJ, not Vick. It shouldn't matter much but thought I'd say it.

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If he goes to the Jets does he drop in your rankings?

He'll be their #1 receiver... Vick will be throwing him the ball. Absolutely not.

#2 WR in this class regardless of where he ends up in my book.

Geno is the proclaimed starter in NYJ, not Vick. It shouldn't matter much but thought I'd say it.

Proclaimed doesn't mean much in New York. Ask Sanchise.

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Rotoworld:

Draft Insider Tony Pauline believes that the 49ers plan to be "aggressive" to move up to land LSU WR Odell Beckham Jr.

"The San Francisco 49ers have let it be known they plan to be aggressive on draft day and use their arsenal of top 100 picks to move up. Sources tell me right now they believe the target is receiver Odell Beckham," Pauline wrote. While the price for Mike Evans may be too rich, ODB could be in reach with the number of picks that the 49ers possess. Pauline mentions that sources say "the Niners may not want to meet Michael Crabtree’s price tag in free agency next March," and signing Beckham would offer the 49ers with a back up plan.

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Yeah, years ago I liked Ginn and was dead wrong. I never really liked Austin, not at 8 anyway. He should have been back of round 1 guy IMO. I think OBJ is a better football player than either of them. The draft is deep so he probably has not shot going top 10. In other years he might have though.

These players have additional value because of what they offer as kick returners. This give additional value to players like Beckham, Watkins, Cooks, Dri Archer for NFL teams but depending on your scoring rules that may or may not add value for these players in fantasy. It is part of my consideration for Beckham, Watkins and Cooks though. I do not see Archer as being close to them as WR but does have value because of his return potential. I think he is a closer prospect to Ginn (worst case) or Austin (best case).

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Yeah, years ago I liked Ginn and was dead wrong. I never really liked Austin, not at 8 anyway. He should have been back of round 1 guy IMO. I think OBJ is a better football player than either of them. The draft is deep so he probably has not shot going top 10. In other years he might have though.

These players have additional value because of what they offer as kick returners. This give additional value to players like Beckham, Watkins, Cooks, Dri Archer for NFL teams but depending on your scoring rules that may or may not add value for these players in fantasy. It is part of my consideration for Beckham, Watkins and Cooks though. I do not see Archer as being close to them as WR but does have value because of his return potential. I think he is a closer prospect to Ginn (worst case) or Austin (best case).

As a Dez Bryant owner, I really hate the idea to let him return kick!

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I'm honestly surprised to see Beckham rising this high in the draft, even if only in terms of speculation. I thought it made sense when he was being talked about in the bottom part of round 1 especially because he offers a lot of all-around potential. But top 10 to me assumes you think you can build a passing game around a guy and I don't think Beckham necessarily offers that. It's not a size issue to me so much as his consistency in doing all the unspectacular bread and butter stuff consistently (making easy catches, ball security).

I think he's a really safe bet to be a productive player and if someone is willing to give him a Harvin-like role then he could be more. But I think his evaluation needs to be more scheme-specific, at least for FF purposes, than Watkins and Evans.

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Yeah, years ago I liked Ginn and was dead wrong. I never really liked Austin, not at 8 anyway. He should have been back of round 1 guy IMO. I think OBJ is a better football player than either of them. The draft is deep so he probably has not shot going top 10. In other years he might have though.

These players have additional value because of what they offer as kick returners. This give additional value to players like Beckham, Watkins, Cooks, Dri Archer for NFL teams but depending on your scoring rules that may or may not add value for these players in fantasy. It is part of my consideration for Beckham, Watkins and Cooks though. I do not see Archer as being close to them as WR but does have value because of his return potential. I think he is a closer prospect to Ginn (worst case) or Austin (best case).

As a Dez Bryant owner, I really hate the idea to let him return kick!

Yeah I suppose in some leagues you might prefer your top WR to not be involved on kicking plays.

The NFL teams do value it however so I think that gives some of these WR additional value.

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If he goes to the Jets does he drop in your rankings?

He'll be their #1 receiver... Vick will be throwing him the ball. Absolutely not.

#2 WR in this class regardless of where he ends up in my book.

Geno is the proclaimed starter in NYJ, not Vick. It shouldn't matter much but thought I'd say it.

Proclaimed doesn't mean much in New York. Ask Sanchise.

What does this even mean? Sanchez was the starter until he got hurt, then he wasn't the starter anymore.

Did the Jets WANT to start Geno last year? Absolutely. The well was poisoned with Sanchez. But I still don't see how that has any effect on this year's situation.

Probably a moot point, as I think a lot of the Beckham talk is teams sending out smokescreens in hopes that the WR they really like (mostly Cooks IMO) falls.

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If he goes to the Jets does he drop in your rankings?

He'll be their #1 receiver... Vick will be throwing him the ball. Absolutely not.

#2 WR in this class regardless of where he ends up in my book.

Geno is the proclaimed starter in NYJ, not Vick. It shouldn't matter much but thought I'd say it.

Proclaimed doesn't mean much in New York. Ask Sanchise.

What does this even mean? Sanchez was the starter until he got hurt, then he wasn't the starter anymore.

Did the Jets WANT to start Geno last year? Absolutely. The well was poisoned with Sanchez. But I still don't see how that has any effect on this year's situation.

Probably a moot point, as I think a lot of the Beckham talk is teams sending out smokescreens in hopes that the WR they really like (mostly Cooks IMO) falls.

I'm saying Sanchise wasn't proclaimed the starter from the end of the '12 season, after Geno was drafted, and up until the preseason game where he was hurt. He was playing better (see: less worse) than Geno all preseason, but he wasn't hard to beat. Sanchise was certainly going to start the season as the starter, but IIRC he was never named the starting QB.

That same situation is happening in New York now... In the most recent article out of the post regarding Smith and Vick (here) Mornhinweg never said Geno is going to be the starter, he just said he would open with the first team when the Jets begin their on-field spring practices in a few weeks as he tries to beat out Michael Vick for the starting job. I think the title of that article is misleading and I believe I saw Rotoworld run with that too...

It's the same thing they were saying last year. Thus... proclaiming ≠ much of anything.

Sorry to derail, but it seems to me there's no certainty about Geno starting... if he does so be it, I'd just keep an open mind about it for now.

Edited by werdnoynek

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If he goes to the Jets does he drop in your rankings?

He'll be their #1 receiver... Vick will be throwing him the ball. Absolutely not.

#2 WR in this class regardless of where he ends up in my book.

Geno is the proclaimed starter in NYJ, not Vick. It shouldn't matter much but thought I'd say it.

I'm a homer that doesn't even particularly like Geno Smith (or at least I'm not willing to think the team is set at QB), but I'm not sure why people want to assume that a young QB couldn't get better. I know I'm replying to your post, and that you didn't actually say that, but making a general statement towards the line of thinking that a WR automatically loses value if he goes to the Jets. The same can be said about Buffalo - some people think way too short term about their rookie picks. Things change quickly in the NFL - for all we know Geno Smith or EJ Manuel will be talked about as top 5 dynasty QBs by the end of next season.

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Beckham seems to be shooting right back up to where he started. I bet he's gone by 20. Maybe 15.

Or 9 to the Bills.

League sources tell WGR 550 in Buffalo's Joe Buscaglia that the Bills are "very serious" about potentially drafting Odell Beckham at No. 9 overall.

Barring several surprise moves in the top eight, Buscaglia believes the Bills will end up deciding between Beckham and North Carolina TE Eric Ebron. In the event Buffalo traded down, it could target Notre Dame G/T Zack Martin, per Buscaglia. As for Beckham, Buscaglia suggests there is "some thought" ODB is the Bills' No. 2-rated receiver, behind only Sammy Watkins and ahead of Mike Evans. If the Bills drafted Beckham, Stevie Johnson could be shown the door.

http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/nfl/287151/Report-Bills-

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Rotoworld:

ESPN's Chris Mortensen stated Thursday that Odell Beckham is "the name I hear the most" concerning teams trying to trade up.

Either Beckham has a really good agent, or teams are genuinely infatuated with him. Mort said some clubs even have Beckham rated higher than Mike Evans on their draft board, which was previously rumored to be the case with the Bills, who draft at No. 9. Mort indicated he expects Beckham to be a top-ten pick.

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Rotoworld:

Giants selected LSU WR Odell Beckham with the No. 12 overall pick in the 2014 NFL draft.

The Giants have been hinting they aren't sold on Rueben Randle as their Hakeem Nicks replacement. Now it's confirmed. Beckham (5-foot-11 1/4, 198) reminds of a bigger, faster Antonio Brown on college film. He's also drawn Greg Jennings comparisons. Displaying pro-ready route-running chops and separation skills, Beckham caught 143 passes in three seasons in Baton Rouge, gaining 2,340 yards (16.4 YPR) with 12 touchdowns. He added two punt-return scores. Confirming his explosive athleticism in Indy, Beckham ran 4.43 with a 38 1/2-inch vertical. NFL Films' Greg Cosell ranked Beckham as this year's No. 2 receiver prospect behind only Sammy Watkins. Beckham is a good bet to make noise in year one, both as an outside receiver and home-run threat on returns.
Related: Rueben Randle

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New York Giants draft Odell Beckham with No. 12 pick

By Marc Sessler

Around the League Writer

NEW YORK -- The New York Giants have pulled another fast one on their inner city foils, the Jets.

Big Blue swooped in with the No. 12 pick in the 2014 NFL Draft to grab wide receiver Odell Beckham out of LSU. It marks the seventh time in nine years that the Giants tapped the draft for wideout help, and the decision fills an immediate need for New York's offense.

Giants pass-catcher Victor Cruz told NFL Network last month that a big-play receiver "is something we need in this offense to be successful."

The 5-foot-11 Beckham brings field-stretching ability and comparisons from some to Antonio Brown of the Steelers. It was whispered that the Jets wanted him badly, but he'll make for a tantalizing addition alongside Cruz and help fill the void left by Hakeem Nicks.

After general manager Jerry Reese acknowledged at the combine that the "jury is still out" on Reuben Randle, we wouldn't be surprised to see Beckham slide in as a Week 1 starter in Gotham.

New York was active in free agency, but the play of Eli Manning last season was concerning, and that's being kind. Getting their quarterback another playmaker makes plenty of sense.

The "Around The League Podcast" is now available on iTunes! Click here to listen and subscribe.

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It was an interesting landing spot for OBJ, I don't quite know what to make of it. It's like they went out and redrafted Victor Cruz. I would have thought they'd go after a bigger body. I don't think it's a bad spot for him but I'm curious to see how they use him. I could see him being the return guy year 1 with some receptions/rushes/td's sprinkled in offensively too... similar to C-Patt in MN last year.

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It's tricky because I like him more on tape than Cooks, but Cooks has a more freaky trait (his elite speed) and went to what looks like a more exciting destination on paper. I would feel pretty good about getting Beckham for a mid-late 1st in a rookie draft, but I'm not sure I want to spend a top 3-4 pick on him.

If I had to take a stab at guessing a generic rookie ADP after one round, he'd probably be in the 4 slot behind Watkins/Evans/Cooks. If Hyde and/or one of those other RBs goes in the 2nd-3rd to Tennessee/Atlanta/New England then maybe he slips down to around the 6-7 spot, which is where he "should" go IMO.

Edited by EBF
  • Like 1

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It's tricky because I like him more on tape than Cooks, but Cooks has a more freaky trait (his elite speed) and went to what looks like a more exciting destination on paper. I would feel pretty good about getting Beckham for a mid-late 1st in a rookie draft, but I'm not sure I want to spend a top 3-4 pick on him.

If I had to take a stab at guessing a generic rookie ADP after one round, he'd probably be in the 4 slot behind Watkins/Evans/Cooks. If Hyde and/or one of those other RBs goes in the 2nd-3rd to Tennessee/Atlanta/New England then maybe he slips down to around the 6-7 spot, which is where he "should" go IMO.

I agree totally with your first sentence and have said so myself in another thread a few weeks back. I want to love Cooks but his tape is "meh" to me. His production and combine metrics scream future stud WR but he just doesn't seem very fluid and I don't see exceptional field vision or moves. He seems like purely a straight liner which concerns me. This is probably one of those players who I will miss out on and regret but my eyes are right most of the time and my eyes don't see "special"on the field.

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I thought all of the wideouts went to :yawn: teams to be honest. I don't see Beckham doing a ton as a rookie that's for sure.

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I thought all of the wideouts went to :yawn: teams to be honest. I don't see Beckham doing a ton as a rookie that's for sure.

That's pretty much how I feel. I really like Beckham but I just don't know what to make of the Giants landing spot. I think Eli will continue to digress and he is the epitome of "great talent, meh situation" to me.

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I thought all of the wideouts went to :yawn: teams to be honest.

I know this is a Beckham thread, but what makes you :yawn: about Cooks to New Orleans?

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I thought all of the wideouts went to :yawn: teams to be honest. I don't see Beckham doing a ton as a rookie that's for sure.

That's pretty much how I feel. I really like Beckham but I just don't know what to make of the Giants landing spot. I think Eli will continue to digress and he is the epitome of "great talent, meh situation" to me.

If Beckham is being brought in to replace Nicks................I like where he's going but we'll see how the other players and positions turn out.

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Background article on Beckham.

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/giants/giants-top-pick-game-changer-beginning-article-1.1787430

This isn't the first time Manning and OBJ have met.

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/giants/eli-beckham-reunited-article-1.1789815

* He will play on the outside, the GM said they want to keep Cruz in the slot. Former OC Gilbride was fired, new OC Ben McAdoo spent the last decade in GB, and may run a lot of three WR formations.

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He's the Nicks replacement. Hopefully he can do what Nicks started to do early in his career until injuries ruined him. I'm not sure I'd expect much year 1, a lot depends on how Randle progresses. Randle has been improving, just not as quickly as hoped. Maybe this new, simpler system will help him progress more or maybe OBJ overtakes him early?

I think all it takes is 1 or 2 poor games by Randle to throw OBJ in there and give him a legit shot.

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Yeah, years ago I liked Ginn and was dead wrong. I never really liked Austin, not at 8 anyway. He should have been back of round 1 guy IMO. I think OBJ is a better football player than either of them. The draft is deep so he probably has not shot going top 10. In other years he might have though.

that's the problem when judging receivers on speed alone. esp a track guy like ginn that probably didn't even know what a Receiver was because he could never quite grasp the concept. That's like butter with no peanut butter, he's a great example of speed and football skill... Speed helps but it sure isn't the end all be all.. As for Tavon he is a far better wr then Ginn, I would liken him more towards Desean/harvin then Ginn. He was also a rook last year so way to early to start saying the Tavon pick was garbage.

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Yeah, years ago I liked Ginn and was dead wrong. I never really liked Austin, not at 8 anyway. He should have been back of round 1 guy IMO. I think OBJ is a better football player than either of them. The draft is deep so he probably has not shot going top 10. In other years he might have though.

that's the problem when judging receivers on speed alone. esp a track guy like ginn that probably didn't even know what a Receiver was because he could never quite grasp the concept. That's like butter with no peanut butter, he's a great example of speed and football skill... Speed helps but it sure isn't the end all be all.. As for Tavon he is a far better wr then Ginn, I would liken him more towards Desean/harvin then Ginn. He was also a rook last year so way to early to start saying the Tavon pick was garbage.

215 catches his last two years in college for Tavon vs. 110 for Ginn.

Tavon also had more rushing yards in one game than Ginn did his entire career.

I don't think Tavon is as good as Harvin but he's a similar type of player.

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It was an interesting landing spot for OBJ, I don't quite know what to make of it. It's like they went out and redrafted Victor Cruz. I would have thought they'd go after a bigger body. I don't think it's a bad spot for him but I'm curious to see how they use him. I could see him being the return guy year 1 with some receptions/rushes/td's sprinkled in offensively too... similar to C-Patt in MN last year.

He's the Nicks replacement. Hopefully he can do what Nicks started to do early in his career until injuries ruined him. I'm not sure I'd expect much year 1, a lot depends on how Randle progresses. Randle has been improving, just not as quickly as hoped. Maybe this new, simpler system will help him progress more or maybe OBJ overtakes him early?

I think all it takes is 1 or 2 poor games by Randle to throw OBJ in there and give him a legit shot.

Doubtful, if I had to bet I think OBJ is going to come in and start directly opposite of Cruz. I'm not actually sure it takes 1-2 poor games from Randle to be overtaken by OBJ. I think all it will take is a really good camp by OBJ.

Realize, all these WRs are coming in and learning a brand new offensive system. A big issue with Randle (and why the Giants weren't 100% brought into him) was that he isn't really that good of a route runner. Everyone on the team has hinted at Randle simply not being their answer to an outside WR. Gilbride hinted at it before being let go, Couglin and Reese have hinted at it with odd comments and simply by drafting OBJ and Cruz has also hinted at it by being very vocal about the Giants need to draft an outside WR.

The next thing to realize, McAdoo is going to be running a West Coast scheme with a base 3 wide set. Which means for probably about 60+% of the plays you'll see Randle and OBJ on the outsides with Cruz in the slot. So they'll both be 'starters'. But my gut tells me when they shift to two wide sets that OBJ and not Randle stays on the field.

The real question for me here isn't whether or not OBJ gets starts over Randle... it's does Eli put enough trust in OBJ to throw up some jump balls for him to go get. Or will be favor Randle more simply because he's comfortable with him. Or... on the flip side, does Eli favor OBJ more in the early running because of the roughly 5 INTs that Randle caused last year because he never had a clue on where to run.

And the last tidbit of this is that with the West Coast offense, Randle no longer has to run a bunch of hot-reads like he did in Gilbride's offense, which was a big issue for him last season. So he might be a little bit better in this offense as it plays more to his strengths.

Either way, I don't think the Giants drafted OBJ to ride the bench and return kicks. A lot of people keep using David Wilson for this example that rookies don't get playing time in Tom Coughlin offenses. But they seem to forget, Coughlin never wanted to draft Wilson. So he was being a stubborn ### about him the entire time.

Look at a more compareable offensive pick by the Giants in the first round (there's only really 1 of them but here we go).

Hakeem Nicks - Started 6 games in 2009 and went 47 rec, 790 yards and 6 TDs. He really was on the field early and often though. Steve Smith led the team with 107 receptions that year and Nicks was only behind Manningham by 10 receptions.

In my opinion, I think that's a solid midground for ODB this season. Not his floor and not his ceiling. But a really solid projection for him would be something around 50 receptions, 750 yards and 5 TDs.

Not world breaking, but a really solid rookie WR season by comparisons.

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Doubtful, if I had to bet I think OBJ is going to come in and start directly opposite of Cruz. I'm not actually sure it takes 1-2 poor games from Randle to be overtaken by OBJ. I think all it will take is a really good camp by OBJ.

I agree completely. Everything they are saying and doing this off-season suggests they are not happy with Randle. OBJ will start week one.

I noticed something after the draft you don't see often and that was GM's from two different teams that did not select OBJ having something positive to say about him. Again that's a little unusual at a time when most teams are focused on praising their own.

Everyone knows Baalke admitted the 49'ers were interested in trading up for him which he confirmed but said price to move up into top 10 or so was to much. Can't recall where I read it but also heard him say once Beckham was gone they had no interest in moving up. That's a pretty strong endorsement.

Then Gettlemen took time to praise OBJ when talking about Benjamin:

One of the reasons the New York Giants selected wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. 12th overall in the 2014 NFL Draft on Thursday night is that Beckham, in the words of general manager Jerry Reese, is that the Giants think Beckham "is pro-ready now."

Reese got a somewhat surprising nod of agreement from Carolina Panthers general manager Dave Gettleman. Picking 28th, the Panthers drafted Florida State wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin. Discussing the pick, Gettleman told Carolina media that "The only receiver in this draft whose route running you can't question is Odell Beckham."

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@7RoundsInApril · Jun 10

Remember...comps use pre-draft info for all players - current prospects are compared only to past *prospects*. NFL careers not considered.

@7RoundsInApril · Jun 10

Ranked first by tier, and then within tier. Assumes all positions have equal value.

@7RoundsInApril · Jun 10

#6 Odell Beckham Jr.: Steve Smith, Percy Harvin, Santonio Holmes, Eddie Royal and Santana Moss (in decreasing order of similarity)

@7RoundsInApril · Jun 10

Forgot to mention... #6 to #12 are Elite Prospects with Added Risk or Good Prospects with Clean Profiles

Edited by Faust

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Rotoworld:

NJ.com's Jordan Raanan believes the Giants "would likely sign for that right now" if Odell Beckham topped 50 catches and 800 yards with 4-5 touchdowns during his rookie season.

The average stat line of a first-round rookie wideout over the last decade is 41 catches, 565 yards, and four touchdowns. Say Beckham posted a 55-850-5 line, probably his rookie-year ceiling. That production would've placed him 34th among fantasy wideouts a year ago, in the Eddie Royal-Rod Streater range. Beckham should help the Giants in 2014, but probably not fantasy owners.

Source: Newark Star-Ledger

Jun 26 - 1:04 PM

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Rotoworld:

NJ.com's Jordan Raanan believes the Giants "would likely sign for that right now" if Odell Beckham topped 50 catches and 800 yards with 4-5 touchdowns during his rookie season.

The average stat line of a first-round rookie wideout over the last decade is 41 catches, 565 yards, and four touchdowns. Say Beckham posted a 55-850-5 line, probably his rookie-year ceiling. That production would've placed him 34th among fantasy wideouts a year ago, in the Eddie Royal-Rod Streater range. Beckham should help the Giants in 2014, but probably not fantasy owners.

Source: Newark Star-Ledger

Jun 26 - 1:04 PM

It's lack of context comments like this from the press that tells me they still don't get FF.

It's not about the end of year stat line. Not for most of us.

If he comes on and ends up as a starter on a team that throws a lot and does not have a great defense, then come weeks 10-16 he could be of good to great value depending how things fall into place, week by week. If, god forbid, Cruz goes down, he's polished enough to be a starter it appears. These are the calls you make in FF. Not just looking at the yearly line.

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It's lack of context comments like this from the press that tells me they still don't get FF.

It's not about the end of year stat line. Not for most of us.

If he comes on and ends up as a starter on a team that throws a lot and does not have a great defense, then come weeks 10-16 he could be of good to great value depending how things fall into place, week by week. If, god forbid, Cruz goes down, he's polished enough to be a starter it appears. These are the calls you make in FF. Not just looking at the yearly line.

A rookie wide receiver doesn't often produce enough to serve as a reliable start in fantasy, according to history. They often have very up and down seasons posing a great risk of getting you tons of points on your bench but few when you actually start them. Cordarrelle Patteson and Tavon Austin may have helped you last year if you had known exactly when to put them in - but most fantasy players probably didn't.

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It's lack of context comments like this from the press that tells me they still don't get FF.

It's not about the end of year stat line. Not for most of us.

If he comes on and ends up as a starter on a team that throws a lot and does not have a great defense, then come weeks 10-16 he could be of good to great value depending how things fall into place, week by week. If, god forbid, Cruz goes down, he's polished enough to be a starter it appears. These are the calls you make in FF. Not just looking at the yearly line.

A rookie wide receiver doesn't often produce enough to serve as a reliable start in fantasy, according to history. They often have very up and down seasons posing a great risk of getting you tons of points on your bench but few when you actually start them. Cordarrelle Patteson and Tavon Austin may have helped you last year if you had known exactly when to put them in - but most fantasy players probably didn't.

Go read some of the posts in the rookie WR thread right below this one. History may tell us rookies don't produce consistently, but the last 5 years show us most of the rookies taken in the 1st round produce at a low end WR3 to WR2 values.

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Go read some of the posts in the rookie WR thread right below this one. History may tell us rookies don't produce consistently, but the last 5 years show us most of the rookies taken in the 1st round produce at a low end WR3 to WR2 values.

So I looked at the thread, noticing mediocrity outside of AJ Green and Julio Jones. For all of those receivers in your post #10, compare the first year to the second year. Almost all of them improved significantly. Case in point, last season you were better off with second year guys Michael Floyd and and Kendall Wright than with any of the rookies.

I could see your argument if rookie receivers had a discount tag. Unfortunately, they have a show room price. First year pass catchers cost only slightly less (sometimes more) than their second year counterparts; yet the latter has a much higher likelihood of out-producing their fantasy draft position.

To bring this discussion back to the topic at hand, OBJ actually has a pretty reasonable 10th round ADP at MFL - around the same as Dobson and Wheaton. Considering NFL draft pedigree, that's not a bad price. I still think I'd rather have the second round guys, though.

Edited by cloppbeast

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I'm doing a PPR startup right now and he was only the 14th rookie drafted with some really stunning picks going ahead of him (Hill and Benjamin). Very surprising. I was one of the guilty parties, passing on him at 7.08 for Allen Robinson. I would not have guesses that I'd make that pick going into the draft, but then again I didn't expect Beckham to be available and funny things happen when you're on the clock. Seems like a pretty huge fail based on how the NFL rated their respective values. I ultimately couldn't sell myself on Odell as anything other than a complementary player in FF and while Robinson may end up being the same thing, a bigger target with better possession and RAC skills seemed more appealing.

I don't see the Steve Smith comparison with Beckham. Smith is a little guy on paper, but on the field he's insanely strong and competitive. Probably more deserving of the "honey badger" nickname than Tyrann Mathieu. When you look at the elite NFL WRs, you quickly notice that physicality is perhaps even more important than sheer explosiveness or speed. Guys like Fitz and Demaryius are not sprinter fast, but when you combine their good overall speed and quickness with their size and toughness, that's what makes them very difficult to handle. That could be a problem for Beckham. Despite being a tough player with a willingness to compete for the ball, I felt he was often battered in contested ball situations.

While it's not a huge deal to me by any means, I'm also mildly concerned that he was only okay when facing good competition. The phenom index doesn't love him either. I definitely don't see him as an NFL bust. He's way too athletic and skilled. However, he strikes me as a guy who might have more value in the NFL than in FF. A part of me thinks he was a reach by about 15-25 picks where NYG took him. I see him as closer to a rich man's Andre Roberts than the next Steve Smith. I think he has a very solid chance to become a 1000+ yard guy in the NFL at some point, but I'd expect it to be as mediium catches/high yards per catch/low TDs type of guy. Not as a 90 reception target machine, which would be my preference.

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