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Politics and War in Ukraine (2 Viewers)

A glimpse of hope has appeared for peace in Ukraine after a 13-point memorandum was signed Thursday in Minsk.

The deal was brokered by the leaders of France, Germany and Russia, who joined their Ukrainian counterpart on Wednesday for marathon overnight negotiations.

The deal was signed by the so-called “contact group,” which includes the leaders of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, a representative of the OSCE, Ukraine’s former President Viktor Kuchma and the Russian ambassador to Ukraine.

Here is the breakdown of the deal:

[SIZE=12pt]1. A comprehensive ceasefire in eastern Ukraine. Comes into force at 00.00 (Kiev time) on February 15[/SIZE].

[SIZE=12pt]2. A pullout of heavy weapons. The parties agreed to a compromise disengagement line. Kiev is to pull artillery and other hardware from the current frontline while the rebels would do it from the frontline as it was in September, before they gained ground in a January counter-offensive. The OSCE-monitored safety zone would be 50 km to 150 km wide for weapons, depending on their range. The pullout is to be completed by March 1[/SIZE].

[SIZE=12pt]3. The OSCE will use its drone fleet and monitors on the ground, as well as satellite images and radar data to ensure that both parties stick to the deal.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=12pt]4. Kiev and the rebels will negotiate the terms for future local elections in the rebel-held areas, which would bring them back into Ukraine’s legal framework. Kiev would adopt legislation on self-governance that would be acceptable for the self-proclaimed republics.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=12pt]5. Kiev will declare a general amnesty for the rebels.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=12pt]6. An exchange of all prisoners must be completed by the fifth day after full disengagement. That’s in 19 days, if the weapons pullback takes the full time provided for by the deal.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=12pt]7. Humanitarian aid convoys will be allowed full access to the needy in the war-affected areas. An international monitoring mechanism will be provided.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=12pt]8. Kiev will restore economic ties, social payments and banking services in the dissenting areas, which it cut earlier in response to the elections held by the self-proclaimed republics. Their respective governments will resume taxation and payment for utilities. This provision is subject for further negotiation.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=12pt]9. After the local elections are held in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, Kiev is to restore control over their borders with Russia. The transition may take time, which would be needed for a comprehensive constitutional reform in Ukraine.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=12pt]10. All foreign troops, heavy weapons and mercenaries are to be withdrawn from Ukraine. Illegal armed groups would be disarmed, but local authorities in Donetsk and Lugansk would be allowed to have legal militia units.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=12pt]11. Keiv will implement comprehensive constitutional reform by the end of the year, which would decentralize the Ukrainian political system and give privileges to Donetsk and Lugansk. The privileges include language self-determination, the freedom to appoint prosecutors and judges, and to establish economic ties with Russia.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=12pt]12. The OSCE’s election monitors are to see that local elections in the self-proclaimed republics are up to international standards. The exact procedure for the elections is subject to further negotiations.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=12pt]13. Talks between the “contact group” will be intensified in various ways.[/SIZE]

Reprinted from Russia Today.

 
Updated map of Russian takeover of Ukrainian Donbas region.

Kiev Reports 87 Attacks Yesterday As Russian-Backed Fighters Mount 'Exercise'

The Ukrainian military reports 87 attacks by Russian-backed fighters yesterday, wounding three Ukrainian servicemen.

Colonel Andriy Lysenko, military spokesman for the Presidential Administration, announced that another five had been wounded when an infantry fighting vehicle (BMP) struck a landmine.

All the casualties were incurred in the Donetsk area, he said.

According to this morning's ATO Press Center report, Russian-backed fighters used mortars in 22 attacks yesterday, firing 114 shells.

The worst fighting was again seen near Avdeyevka, north of separatist-held Donetsk, which saw 9 mortar attacks.

...
http://www.interpretermag.com/day-786/#13310?pressId=13310

 


Gregor Peter@L0gg0l


PUTIN CALLS URGENT RUSSIAN SECURITY COUNCIL MEETING ON "THREATS TO KALININGRAD", RIA SAYS (via @akihheikkinen )


Gregor Peter@L0gg0l


Putin calling security council meeting on Kaliningrad pretty significant against the backdrop of NATO exercise in the region
- Purpose is to counter threats to the Kaliningrad region.
 
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Perfect.  Seems like everyone understands each other just fine!

If he starts a fight over NATO troops in Poland, he wants a fight.  And if he wants a fight we'll have one sooner or later no matter what we do.

 
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Russian proxies attack Ukraine 61 times in last day amid escalation

[SIZE=12pt]Russian proxies attack Ukraine 61 times in last day amid escalation The combined Russian-separatist forces attacked Ukrainian army positions in eastern Ukraine 61 times in the past 24 hours, using banned heavy artillery systems, according to the press center of the Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) Headquarters.[/SIZE]
 

[SIZE=12pt]Most of enemy attacks – 32 instances – were recorded in the Mariupol sector, the ATO HQ's press service wrote on Facebook in an update as of 08:00 Kyiv time on Monday, August 8. Militants launched 45 shells from 122mm artillery systems on the Ukrainian positions in the town of Maryinka, as well as mortars and grenade launchers on the town of Krasnohorivka, and the villages of Pavlopil, Lopaskyne, Vodiane, and Novotroyitske. The occupiers fired from heavy machine-guns on the villages of Shyrokyne and Starohnativka. Their armored vehicles were engaged in Shyrokyne, Starohnativka, and Maryinka. In addition, enemy snipers opened fire thrice near Maryinka and the village of Hnutove. Ukrainian troops successfully repelled an attack by an enemy sabotage and reconnaissance group that stormed the fortified positions of the defenders of Starohnativka on Sunday after midnight. There were no casualties among Ukrainian soldiers. Read also Three Ukrainian soldiers killed, four wounded on Saturday In the Donetsk sector, the Russian-backed mercenaries launched two dozen shells from 122mm heavy artillery systems on the villages of Luhanske and Maiorsk. The situation was most tense in the area of Krasnohorivka-Avdiyivka. The enemy repeatedly opened fire from mortars of various calibers on Ukrainian positions there, about 50 mines were recorded. The situation was also hot in the town of Svitlodarsk, and the villages of Luhanske and Troyitske, where the enemy used grenade launchers. The enemy fired from infantry fighting vehicles' guns near Krasnohorivka and Luhanske. In Luhansk region, the militants opened fire from rocket-propelled grenades on the ATO positions in the village of Lopaskyne. They also conducted random fire on the Ukrainian fortified positions near the town of Popasna and the village of Zhovte. The number of flights of unmanned aerial vehicles significantly increased along the front line. The Ukrainian army spotted six enemy UAVs in the last day.[/SIZE]

 
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Ukrainian Intelligence: Separatists in Luhansk are at full combat readiness


In response to the assassination attempt against the head of the self-proclaimed Luhansk People`s Republic (LPR), Igor Plotnitsky, the separatists are at the highest degree of combat readiness, according to reports by the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

"In connection with an assassination attempt against Igor Plotnitsky, the separatists held counter-subversive activities and the 2AK units in Lugansk of the Center of the Territorial Army (Novocherkassk) of the Southern Military District (Rostov-on-don) of the Russian Armed Forces  are in the highest state of combat readiness," the message notes.

In addition, according to intelligence, rotations of the advanced units and the replenishment of ammunition continues.  The exploration of the front line in the Donbas towards the Sloviansk and Donetsk directions is being carried out.

In Sloviansk near the settlement of Dolomytne there was one rotation of personnel of the 1st Infantry Battalion of the 3rd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade 1AK of the Russian Armed Forces.

To hide from the OSCE Mission, they have moved military equipment banned by the Minsk Agreements to the forefront overnight.

In Donetsk, 11 separate motorized rifle regiments 1 AK of the Russian Armed Forces has been replenished with ammunition from advanced units.  Two unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) from 1 AK of the Russian Armed Forces were involved in the air intelligence.

The Ukrainian Army provided information to the representatives of the Special Monitoring Mission of the OSCE about the presence of tanks, self-propelled artillery and artillery systems with a caliber of more than 100 mm and 122 mm, and Grad rocket systems in the areas of Buhaivka, Makiivka, Pervomaysk, Horlivka, Donetsk and Bezimenne.

It was also reported that the preparation for a "tank biathlon" competition is going on in Russia, which will be held on the 15th of August, 2016.  "Currently, the selection of the tank crews are in process.  At the same time, while preparing for the event the enemy encountered problems associated with the unsatisfactory technical condition of the military equipment and the shortage of fuel," the message stated.

As a result, the commanders of the army corps filed an application with the Center of the Territorial Army (Novocherkassk) of the Southern Military District (Rostov-on-don) of the Russian Armed Forces for an additional supply of arms, materials and fuel.
http://uawire.org/news/ukrainian-intelligence-separatists-in-luhansk-are-at-full-combat-readiness

- This represents a possible expansion of the war towards Mariupol and Luhansk.

 
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Another example of horrific foreign policy by Obama/Clinton.  Hell, Bush I/II and Clinton were also awful...ugh.

 
Yep air defense missiles have been moved into Crimea.

Russia claims that Ukrainian guerillas have performed some sort of rear guard action, Ukraine denies this.

Russia has also established a massive buildup of equipment and men in Donbass. Russia appears to be setting up a pretext to move further west. Hopefully not but that's the look.

Also supposedly the Russians have moved some sort of base on the border of the Baltics. I will post that when I get a chance. 

 
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Russia deploys Bastion-P coastal defense missile system near border with the Baltics


 
The new Bastion-P mobile coastal defense missile systems were spotted during transport near the borders with the Baltic countries in northern Europe, that reported on vk.com/milinfolive page.

The missile systems were spotted on the road to St. Petersburg in Novgorod region. The design of Bastion-P allows it to float force to destroy enemy ships in all weather conditions, even in noisy environments enhanced electron.

The Bastion-P launcher carries two P-800 Oniks/Yakhont (SS-N-26 Strobile) anti-ship cruise missiles. These have a range of 300 km with hi-low flight trajectory and 120 km with low-low flight trajectory.

The missiles can be deployed at two different trajectories. The combined trajectory (high-altitude cruise followed by low-level flight as the target approaches), provides a longer range and low-altitude trajectory reduces the effective range but significantly increases its stealth capabilities and decreases the probability of the rocket being hit by the opponent’s missile defences. The missile’s survival is ensured by its ability to carry out effective evasive manoeuvres to avoid enemy air defences.

One Bastion-P system able to provide protection for at least 600 km of the coastline, and guarantees destruction of opposition targets above-water. The system can also hit land-based radio-contrast targets. All this can be done under intense fire and electronic counter-measures used by the attackers.

In the two years since Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula, the tiny Baltic nations of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have taken an oversize role in facing down Russia’s challenge to the West. The Kremlin has been building up its military along its border with the former Soviet satellites. Western allies of the Baltics, worried that the region is vulnerable, have responded by pouring tanks, warplanes and soldiers into an area slightly larger than Florida.

Earlier Russia deploys more Bastion-P mobile coastal defence missile system in Crimea.
http://defence-blog.com/news/russia-deploys-bastion-p-coastal-defence-missile-system-near-border-with-the-baltics.html

 
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Moldova Protests Russian Military Exercise In Transdniester


The Moldovan Foreign Ministry has complained to Russian diplomats over a recent military exercise involving Russian troops on the territory of Transdniester, a region of Moldova de facto controlled by Russia-backed separatists.

The ministry issued a statement on August 18 saying that the exercise was illegal, "provocative, and inadmissible." It aimed to "undermine the sovereignty and territorial integrity" of Moldova, the statement added.

The ministry repeated Chisinau's demand that Russia withdraw its forces and heavy weaponry from the country and that the peacekeeping operation be handed over to international organizations.

It was the second time that exercises involving separatists and Russian forces have been held in Transdniester this month.

Russia has maintained a force of some 1,000 troops in Moldova since a cease-fire was brokered in 1992 after a brief, bloody conflict between the separatists and the Moldovan state.

Some 1,500 people died in that conflict.

In 1999, Moscow agreed to a complete withdrawal of its forces by 2002, but has failed to implement that agreement despite repeated appeals by the Moldovan government for it to do so.
http://www.rferl.mobi/a/moldova-protests-russian-exercises-transdniester/27931559.html

- I think there isn't anyone (almost) in the US who is aware that Russia is in yet another country - Moldova.

 
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Maskirovka — Russian masked mobilization



 



Russia wont fly flags if a snap drill turns to an invasion
Russian President Vladimir Putin used extremely harsh rhetoric and accused Ukrainian government of staging a terror operation against the Russian occupied Crimea. Russia claimed that Ukrainian Special Forces had attempted to breach the border between Ukrainian territory and occupied Crimea with the use of “Heavy firing”. Claim is absurd as the border is open and any subversive group could simply pass into the peninsula, invaded by Russia, in plain clothes.

What make the Russian claims even more unbelievable are the recent Russian actions. Russian armed forces have been conducting “snap exercises”, that are effectively masked mobilizations of combat units, for the past few years. In the past two weeks Russian armed forces have mobilized at least six armies. These formations contain at least 2 tank divisions, 2 mechanized infantry divisions, 1 airborne division, 16 motorized infantry brigades, 7 artillery brigades, 4 missile brigades. Additionally at least 3 spetznatz brigades and 1 airborne division are at 24h readiness at all times.

These formations do total to nearly 100 000 soldiers in well equipped, trained and mobile formations. These numbers do not include the troops that are immediately next to Ukrainian border or in the occupied Crimea.

During the cold war, this kind of mobilization would have led to a full scale mobilization of the NATO forces in Europe. But after several years of “Snap drills” and “strategic relocation exercises” the west no longer reacts to this muscle flexing. Western military analysts are well aware that Russian “snap drills” have the capability to turn into full scale invasion in a few hours. Before our political machines have reached a decision the Russian army could be in Kiev… or in Riga, Tallinn, Vilnius, Warsaw or Helsinki.

West needs to wake up and start preparing. NATO southern flank is crumbling as Turkey is aligning with Russia. The European nations must step up and show that they can field significant forces fast enough to counter Russia. Even nations with sizable forces, like Finland, need to speed up their mobilization and make sure that the necessary infrastructure and social cohesion are robust enough to withstand the Russian hybrid measures that are happening every day.
https://medium.com/define-the-new-europe/maskirovka-russian-masked-mobilization-753216b13418

 
The Pentagon has identified eight staging areas in Russia where large numbers of military forces appear to be preparing for incursions into Ukraine, according to U.S. defense officials.

As many as 40,000 Russian troops, including tanks, armored vehicles, and air force units, are now arrayed along Ukraine’s eastern border with Russia.

Additionally, large numbers of Russian military forces will conduct exercises in the coming days that Pentagon officials say could be used as cover for an attack on Ukraine.

“Russian units will likely practice reinforcing the [Crimean] peninsula through such activities as amphibious landings and air defense exercises, and this may involve the change out of equipment and long convoys of military vehicles,” one defense official said.

The military exercises are an ominous sign. Similar large-scale Russian exercises were conducted near Ukraine a month before Moscow carried out the covert military operation to take over the strategic Black Sea peninsula in March 2014.

Navy Capt. Danny Hernandez, a spokesman for the U.S. European Command, told the Washington Free Beacon that the upcoming Russian exercises are being closely monitored.

...

Wire service reports and online blogs have revealed satellite photos of the Russian military buildup at the eight locations.

Reuters reported in June on the deployment of troops to Klintsy, and the website InformNapalm reported July 30 that armored units of the 28th Motorized Rifle Brigade were moved to a base near Valuyki, and at Rostov.

A Russian military training camp reportedly was set up at Persianovskiy, located about 28 miles north of Rostov, according to a report by the online news outlet Bellingcat. Troops and aircraft at Millerovo also have been identified in satellite photos since 2015.

Reuters reported in September that a Russian military base was being set up near Boguchar, and the blog Russian Military Analysis reported that a motorized rifle brigade was deployed last year to Yelnya.

Mark Schneider, a former Pentagon official, said the troop movements are worrying signs that Moscow may be preparing for war with Ukraine.

“There is lot of press in the last week about a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine including massing of troops,” said Schneider, now with the National Institute for Public Policy.

...
http://freebeacon.com/national-security/russian-military-forces-staging-near-ukraine/

 
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[SIZE=12pt]Russia builds barbed wire fence on border with Poland – media [/SIZE]

[SIZE=12pt]The Polish border service has reported about felled trees, sections of a fence and barbed wire on the border with Russia, according to Radio Poland's Russian-language service. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=12pt]"We do not know why these abatises [a field fortification consisting of an obstacle formed of branches of trees laid in a row] are needed. Work has been underway for some time, but we do not know what this fence is being built for and what its function will be," warrant officer of the Warmia Mazury Border Service Anna Lusnya said, Radio Poland reported.[/SIZE]

 

[SIZE=12pt]Work to build the fortification facility on the Russian side lasts for more than a month. Earlier, Poland suspended simplified border-crossing procedures with Russia's Kaliningrad region during the NATO Summit in Warsaw early in July 2016, referring to security reasons. The procedures have not been resumed yet.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]http://www.unian.info/world/1475291-russia-builds-barbed-wire-fence-on-border-with-poland-media.html[/SIZE]

 
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Then just Poland. That way no troops are on the border of Russia proper (except for that weird Kaliningrad thing).



 


Russia transporting Iskander missile system to Kaliningrad


According to a government source known to ERR’s Estonian news portal, the Russian Baltic Fleet is moving an Iskander-M missile system from Ust-Luga to Kaliningrad on a civilian vessel.
The ship, called the Ambal, is currently at sea moving towards Kaliningrad, where it is expected to arrive today Friday.

The possibility exists that the violation of Estonian airspace by a Russian military plane on Thursday is connected to the move.

Asked by ERR’s Estonian news portal if he could confirm, Minister of Defence Hannes Hanso (SDE) said that they had their own channels to answer such questions. “But it’s certainly true that we have reason to keep our eyes open in the air, on the water, and everywhere else,” Hanso said.

Asked if the airspace violations that occurred in Finland and Estonia on Thursday and Friday could be connected to Russia’s move, Hanso said that this possibility couldn’t be excluded.

Iskander-M is a ballistic rocket system designed to destroy strategic targets in a distance of 500 to 700 kilometers.

In 2010 and 2011 the Russian 26. missile brigade around Lake Peipus was equipped with rockets of this type (12 positions in total). According to magazine Diplomaatia, it is likely that the Iskander system was introduced to the 152. missile brigade stationed in Kaliningrad in 2012 and 2013.

The Iskander system is intended for the destruction of strategically important objects, such as airfields, ports, railroad junctions, military headquarters, and so on. From Kaliningrad, the range of the system reaches from southern Poland to central Finland.
Airspace violations in Finland and Estonia on Thursday and Friday

A Russian Su-27 fighter jet violated Finnish airspace at 4:43 p.m. on Thursday, and again at 9:33 p.m., the Finnish defense ministry reported.

A plane of the same type violated Estonian airspace close to the island of Vaindloo in the Gulf of Finland at 2:38 a.m. on Friday. The jet was on Estonian territory for less than a minute, the Estonian Defence Forces reported. A flight plan had not been filed, and the plane’s transponder was not active.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the Russian ambassador on Friday to hand over a protest note.
http://news.err.ee/v/news/2bed3823-08be-4918-be4c-4e427422981e/breaking-russia-transporting-iskander-rocket-system-to-kaliningrad#.V_eL_7rTBf8.twitter

- So Russia is moving a strategic missile system into western Europe.

 
Not only that, the St. Petersburg governor (Georgy Poltavchenko) has approved bread rations in case of war. 

But the Russians say not to worry:lmao:

Yeah, sure, Vladdy, modern day Cuban Missile Crisis is nothing to worry about....

This article seems interesting and informative: http://observer.com/2016/10/putins-activation-of-iskander-m-ballistic-missile-is-a-message-to-obama/

 
I had no idea Kaliningrad existed (in that Russia has territory next to Poland and basically in Western Europe). When I read saints link up too I'm like 'how is Russia bordering Poland?'

 
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It's sort of nuts, this is a huge, aggressive move.
Yep. This is the real deal. Putin is on the offensive big time. The bigger question is, what's next?

I found this interesting: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-usa-missiles-confirm-idUSKCN1280IV

Russia has moved nuclear-capable Iskander-M missiles into the Kaliningrad enclave bordering Poland and Lithuania, the Defence Ministry said on Saturday, adding it was part of routine drills.

"These missile units have been deployed more than once (in the Kaliningrad region) ... and will be deployed as part of military training of the Russian armed forces," ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said in a statement.

A U.S. intelligence official said on Friday that Russia had started moving the Iskander-Ms into the enclave on the Baltic in what he said could be a gesture to express displeasure with NATO.

Konashenkov said one of the missiles had been deliberately exposed to a U.S. spy satellite. "We did not have to wait for too long - our American partners confirmed it themselves in their revelatory endeavor," he said.
Incredible. They're not hiding anything. They're being as overt as they possibly can. And they don't care one bit. 

Some quotes from NATO and European officials here: http://observer.com/2016/10/obama-blows-off-putin-encouraging-kremlin-aggression-against-nato/

Even for the honeybadger in the Kremlin, this is a brazen act, although officially Russia has portrayed its Iskander deployment to Kaliningrad as no big deal. Frants Klintsevich, one of the Kremlin’s top security officials (he was the person who publicly admitted in June that Edward Snowden is an agent of Russian intelligence),downplayed the whole thing. Neighboring states like Poland and Lithuania “should not fear” the move because it is “part of a drill” for the Russian military which, Klintsevich added, are “not at war” with anyone.

Warsaw and Vilnius, who know their eastern neighbor very well, are not reassured by such Russian pleasantries about their aggressive move on NATO’s doorstep. “The deployment not only increases tensions in the region, but also possibly violates international treaties which limit deployment of ballistic missiles,” explained Linas Linkevičius, Lithuania’s foreign minister. “We will use all channels available to not only raise this question, but to demand that international agreements are adhered to,” he added.

Poland’s defense minister, Antoni Macierewicz, was equally forthright in his statement regarding the Iskander deployment on his country’s border: “The Russian Federation’s recent actions give cause for utmost concern.” In private, Polish defense officials have expressed real worries, rejecting Kremlin excuses that this move is “just a drill.”

“Putin’s playing for real now,” explained a senior defense official in Warsaw, who indicated that his country’s military and intelligence moves in response to Putin’s Iskander gambit are “appropriate to the new situation.” The problem in Warsaw isn’t just Putin, whose bad behavior Poles now see as part of NATO’s “new normal” on the Alliance’s eastern flank—but President Obama, who is a no-show in this hour of crisis.

Indeed, four days into Putin’s Cuban Missile Crisis on the Baltic Sea, our president remains invisible. There has been no public statement on the Iskander deployment from either the White House or the Pentagon. The U.S. military has made some quiet moves in response to the Russian move, including flights by our spy planes over the Baltic to monitor Kremlin moves. However, the lack of any public support or demonstrations of NATO solidarity by Washington right now is deeply troubling to our allies in Eastern Europe, most of whom had minimal confidence in Obama’s courage even before his latest no-show.

Vladimir Putin is no madman, rather an opportunist. He will get away with what NATO and especially the United States—who in military terms are vastly more powerful than Russia—allow him to. Barack Obama seems to think that letting the Kremlin do whatever it wishes will bring peace and stability. Ukraine and Syria tragically demonstrate that Obama’s laissez-faire attitude towards Putin beings anything but peace, yet it seems highly unlikely that our president will grow a backbone with just three months left in office.

We are in a dangerous period between now and January 20, when the Russian bear feels—not unreasonably—that he can get away with whatever he wants, without consequence. That’s not true, of course. Privately, President Obama has expressed to our NATO allies facing Russia exactly where his “redlines” are vis-à-vis the Kremlin.

Our allies, however, scarcely believe Obama, and who can blame them? “We saw what happened with his ‘redline’ in Syria,” quipped a NATO senior official: “Putin won.” We can only hope that the Kremlin believes in Obama’s Eastern European “redlines” more than defense professionals in Poland and the Baltics do. Deterrence works, but only when it’s credible—on all sides. President Obama needs to get off the golf course—where he is today—and publicly reassure our NATO allies if we expect to prevent more of Putin’s dangerous antics.

 
Yep. This is the real deal. Putin is on the offensive big time. The bigger question is, what's next?

I found this interesting: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-usa-missiles-confirm-idUSKCN1280IV

Incredible. They're not hiding anything. They're being as overt as they possibly can. And they don't care one bit. 

Some quotes from NATO and European officials here: http://observer.com/2016/10/obama-blows-off-putin-encouraging-kremlin-aggression-against-nato/
Thanks, good info.

Putin truly has a free hand to maneuver, I think he will do whatever he can to push a military advantage before the end of the year.

 
So what should the US and NATO do?  I hate to invoke Hitler, but Crimea and Ukraine are right out of his early playbook.   What is Putin's endgame?  How should we be stopping it?

 
But but but reset....
This is actually worse than the Cold War. We're not engaged and Russia has been more aggressive than any time since Prague 1968. Military action in Syria, Ukraine, Moldova, Baltic border, and Kaliningrad (Eastern Prussia/Koenigsberg). Plus they just scrapped START.

 
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So what should the US and NATO do?  I hate to invoke Hitler, but Crimea and Ukraine are right out of his early playbook.   What is Putin's endgame?  How should we be stopping it?
This is not something you do in 5 minutes. The strategy had to begin years ago, maybe when they moved into Georgia, like that long ago. The book may already be written.

 
 


Russia's top propagandist says US behaviour could have 'nuclear' implications


Dmitry Kiselyov said there has been a 'radical change' in relations between Russia and the US
A Russian news presenter, dubbed the “Kremlin’s chief propagandist”, has warned the United States any “impudent behaviour” towards Moscow could have “nuclear” implications.


 


Dmitry Kiselyov, who was appointed by Vladimir Putin to head the country’s government-owned news agency, made the warning on Monday night’s edition of his flagship current affairs programme Vesti Nedeli (News of the Week).

Relations between the two countries hit a new low on Friday after Washington accused Moscow of war crimes following a sustained bombardment of the besieged Syrian city Aleppo, where at least 250,000 people are still living in the rebel-held east of the city.


 


On Saturday, Russia vetoed a motion put to the UN Security Council demanding an immediate end to the bombing campaign in Aleppo. A rival motion proposed by Russia was also rejected at the meeting calling for a fresh ceasefire but did not explicitly mention the bombing.

... During Monday’s programme a Russian defence ministry spokesman also warned US bombers not to target the Syrian army. “We’ll shoot them down,” commented Mr Kiselyov.

...
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-us-nuclear-war-vladimir-putin-barack-obama-ukraine-dmitry-kiselyov-warning-a7355226.html

 
So what should the US and NATO do?  I hate to invoke Hitler, but Crimea and Ukraine are right out of his early playbook.   What is Putin's endgame?  How should we be stopping it?
If they want to invade the rest of Ukraine, there is little we can do at this point to stop them. We have several trade deals with Russia, and we could threaten to end some or all of those. But again, we can't really stop any seizure of Ukraine.

As for the rest of eastern Europe that is protected by NATO agreements, we need to reaffirm that any aggression against NATO will be responded to by the United States with force.

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
So draw a red line.

What's our record on that?
With regard to NATO? 100%.

Yes, Obama made a mistake drawing that line in Syria, because everybody knew that in the end we were not willing to put more troops on the ground in the middle east. NATO is a very different animal. This is our nation's most sacred foreign policy agreement, the key to international stability since 1945. We don't #### around with NATO. In hindsight, IMO, it was unwise of us to allow certain eastern European nations to join NATO, because inevitably this tension with Russia was going to arise. But we did, and we can't go back on that now. We need to let Russia know that there are no conditions under which we would not defend a NATO country to our utmost.

Part of that is preventing Donald Trump from being elected. That in itself will send a clear message to Putin that he had better watch his step.

 
With regard to NATO? 100%.

Yes, Obama made a mistake drawing that line in Syria, because everybody knew that in the end we were not willing to put more troops on the ground in the middle east. NATO is a very different animal. This is our nation's most sacred foreign policy agreement, the key to international stability since 1945. We don't #### around with NATO. In hindsight, IMO, it was unwise of us to allow certain eastern European nations to join NATO, because inevitably this tension with Russia was going to arise. But we did, and we can't go back on that now. We need to let Russia know that there are no conditions under which we would not defend a NATO country to our utmost.

Part of that is preventing Donald Trump from being elected. That in itself will send a clear message to Putin that he had better watch his step.
Would say supporting the coup in Ukraine and regime change in Syria were mistakes too?

 
Would say supporting the coup in Ukraine and regime change in Syria were mistakes too?
Not sure about the Ukraine coup. Our policy in Syria was NOT a mistake, though you can question strategy and tactics. 
Ukraine was not a "coup." We did the right thing there and that was a democratic movement. That is what happens in democracies.

Syria has been a complete and utter disaster from all diplomatic, military and humanitarian perspectives.

 
Check this out: https://twitter.com/NoahSneider/status/785849032069550080

And this: https://twitter.com/XSovietNews/status/785830580856377345

Don't forget this: https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/785598056351883264

http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-us-confrontation-2016-10

Retired Russian Lt. Gen. Evgeny Buzhinsky told the BBC that for its part, Russia sees the West as the belligerent party, citing sanctions against Russia as well as barring the Russian Paralympic team from the Rio Olympics for well-documented and state-sponsored doping as Western aggression against Russia.

"Of course there is a reaction. As far as Russia sees it, as Putin sees it, it is full-scale confrontation on all fronts. If you want a confrontation, you'll get one," Buzhinsky told the BBC. "But it won't be a confrontation that doesn't harm the interests of the United States. You want a confrontation, you'll get one everywhere."
Go home Vlad. You're drunk. 

Part of me is more alarmist and says **** is going down. Another part says Putin is sticking out his chest as far as possible because he can and that announcing all of this stuff (ex. Gov't officials calling their kids home that are studying abroad) is for show. 

I've also found it interesting of the closer relations between Russia and Turkey recently. 

This isn't anything new. Russia's been subverting and trying to re-ignite a Cold War 2.0 for probably a decade now. We've just turned a blind eye to it. I think the difference now is that Russia is more aggressive and overt than ever. 

And yes, our Syria policy has been a disaster. No questions there. There have been longer and more extensive pieces written on Syria, but this from 3 years ago is an interesting read: http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/americas-middle-east-policy-collapses-9073

 
With regard to NATO? 100%.

Yes, Obama made a mistake drawing that line in Syria, because everybody knew that in the end we were not willing to put more troops on the ground in the middle east. NATO is a very different animal. This is our nation's most sacred foreign policy agreement, the key to international stability since 1945. We don't #### around with NATO. In hindsight, IMO, it was unwise of us to allow certain eastern European nations to join NATO, because inevitably this tension with Russia was going to arise. But we did, and we can't go back on that now. We need to let Russia know that there are no conditions under which we would not defend a NATO country to our utmost.

Part of that is preventing Donald Trump from being elected. That in itself will send a clear message to Putin that he had better watch his step.
This really blows my mind.  After how Obama has allowed Putin to flourish and become even more popular in a country with little to nothing in their economy,  somehow Trump gets brought into the discussion by the far Left.  Obama has failed big time with the Putin situation, but voting in Hilary,  who is essentially Obama,  will teach Putin a lesson.  That's out of this world crazy.

 

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