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Politics and War in Ukraine (2 Viewers)

What is the 'Steinmeier Formula' and will it lead to peace in eastern Ukraine?
 

The "Steinmeier Formula" is little spoken about yet it has been touted by some as a possible route to armistice in eastern Ukraine, where pro-Russian separatists have fought with Ukrainian forces.

It is a peace plan of sorts, proposed by German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier back in 2016 when he was foreign minister. But what does it consist of and where do Russia and Ukraine stand on its implementation?

What exactly is the 'Steinmeier Formula'?

The conflict in eastern Ukraine has left around 13,000 people dead, a quarter of them civilians, according to the UN, and wounded up to 30,000.

In September 2014 — and again in February 2015 — Ukraine and Russia, along with France and Germany, signed off on the so-called Minsk agreement, a plan to establish peace.

Painting the two key actions the agreement encompasses with a broad brush, they amount to holding local elections and returning pro-Russian separatist regions to Ukraine's control.

However, there was no clear indication of the order in which steps should be taken.

The "Steinmeier Formula" is a sequencing of the agreement, Peter Dickinson, publisher of Business Ukraine magazine and fellow at the Atlantic Council told Euronews.

What is Russia's position?

"In it's most Moscow-friendly interpretation, the formula holds elections would take place (in eastern Ukraine) with the current security environment still in place," Dickinson said. "Essentially with the separatist/Russian forces still in charge."

This could legitimise Russian proxies or appointees by seeing them elected, he added.

Moscow would like to see the status quo confirmed in this way, to ensure it has influence in the area to stop Western integration and it could then stage a "theatrical retreat", Dickinson explained. ...

 
Former Ukraine Liaison Calls for Rejection of Peace Plan
 

Roman Bezsmertny, former Ukraine’s representative in the working subgroup on political issues of the Trilateral Contact Group (TCG) for resolving the situation in the east of the country, has posted a text of the document on the elections in Donbas (under the Steinmeier formula), which was drafted on behalf of the TCG for the heads of Normandy Four countries. He said it was unacceptable to sign it.

“This paper is being prepared on behalf of the TCG in Minsk for the heads of state of the Normandy Four and served as the so-called ‘Steinmeier formula.’ I draw the attention of all those involved in the process to the inadmissibility of adopting such a document, moreover of signing it,” Bezsmertny writes on Facebook on Oct. 1 morning.

He published a document entitled “Implementation of ‘Steinmeier formula’ into Ukrainian legislation.”

“This law shall enter into force at 8.00 p.m. local time on the day of voting in special local elections in certain regions of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which are scheduling and held in accordance with the Constitution of Ukraine and a special law of Ukraine governing special local elections in the above-mentioned areas. It will operate on a temporary basis until the day the final report by the OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation Mission is published, in accordance with established OSCE/ODIHR practice, on the general compliance of snap elections with OSCE standards and international standards for democratic elections, as well as Ukrainian law, in which it answers the question agreed in the Normandy format, approved by the TCG and sent by Ukraine in its invitation letter and the OSCE Chairmanship to the ODIHR director,” reads the document.

“This law continues to operate on an ongoing basis if the OSCE/ODIHR final report concludes, in accordance with established OSCE/ODIHR practice, that extraordinary local elections in certain areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions were held in general in accordance with OSCE standards and Ukrainian legislation, when answering a question agreed in the Normandy format, approved by the Tripartite Contact Group and forwarded by Ukraine in its invitation letter and chairmanship of the OSCE to ODIHR director,” said in the text of this document.

At the same time, on his other Facebook page, where Bezsmertny also published this document, the politician explained why he categorically urged representatives of Ukraine not to sign it.

“Danger! In any case, the Ukrainian side cannot sign it in Minsk! It cannot be viewed in the Normandy format either. This is an election according to the Kremlin scenario. This is an election to legitimize the ‘power’ in the occupied territory! This piece of paper will not ensure peace, it won’t decide socially humanitarian problems!” he wrote.

 
Lutsenko under investigation for alleged abuse of power
 

The National Anticorruption Bureau of Ukraine opened a criminal investigation against former Prosecutor General Yuriy Lutsenko at the request of Kyiv’s Solomyansky District Court.

NABU’s press office confirmed news reports that the court sent an Aug. 5 order to enter a case against Lutsenko into the Unified Registry of Pre-Trial Investigations, which NABU did. Lutsenko still served as General Prosecutor at the time, having signed a letter of resignation on Aug. 29.

Lutsenko is under investigation for criminal abuse of office. NABU did not confirm any other details.



 
In Ukraine, the promise of transformative change falls apart

**********

Through three rounds of elections in Ukraine last spring and summer, the people of Ukraine used the power of the ballot box to overwhelmingly support the candidacy of Volodymyr Zelensky, a TV personality who coincidentally rose to fame playing the role of a fictional president.

What was clear from the results in what was generally a fair election is that a broad cross-section of Ukrainians were hoping that Mr. Zelensky would begin reform of an oligarchic, corrupt system of governance and end Russia’s occupation of the Crimea and Donbas region.

The opportunity for transformative change was at hand. There was optimism that with the support of key players in the international community, the reinforcement of independence of a strong, united Ukraine would be a counterpoint to the efforts of Vladimir Putin to control the strategic region of Eastern Europe and would offer an example of a functioning democracy, in contrast to the authoritarianism in Russia.

Alas, that promise is beginning to go astray. The corrupt political agenda of Donald Trump has embroiled Mr. Zelensky in Washington’s political furor. Mr. Zelensky’s reputation has been besmirched by showing him trapped as an accomplice in Mr. Trump’s efforts to investigate Joe Biden and his son.

One can sympathize with the Ukrainian President feeling vulnerable to extortion by a hold-back of needed military support. It doesn’t excuse him from his efforts to whitewash the clear intent of Mr. Trump to betray the constitutional standards on non-interference in the domestic elections of the United States.

This Trumpian imbroglio has been compounded by Mr. Zelensky’s acquiescence to pressures from France and Germany to adopt what’s known as the Steinmeier formula, granting autonomy to Donbas. Many in Ukraine see this as clear capitulation. Russian politicians described the signing of the deal in principle as a victory for Russian diplomacy.

So rather than a co-ordinated, constructive, combined approach from countries favourable to Ukraine that secures the principles set forth in the 2014 revolution, the Zelensky government must contend with the grubby, self-serving calculations of its so-called friends.

To further complicate matters, in Ukraine (a country largely missing an appropriate system of accountability), the Zelensky-dominated Parliament has adopted a judicial-reform law that essentially places the judiciary under the control of the executive.

This resulted in an appeal by the ambassadors of Canada, Britain, Germany and the EU to the Speaker of Ukraine’s Parliament, Dmytro Razumkov, expressing concerns about the suppressive elements of amendments in judicial reform. The American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine and the European Business Association have called on Mr. Zelensky to veto the law passed by his own party’s majority.

The actions of Mr. Zelensky’s government appear aimed at establishing a regime in Ukraine where the checks and balances necessary for a working democracy do not exist. An attempt to build a state in which the President and his administration control all branches of government, media, business and society is a worrisome development.

And where is Canada in these low-grade manipulations? Ukraine, since its independence, has been a key priority for both Liberal and Conservative governments. Canada made a major investment, including a large contingent of dedicated Canadians who gave of their time to support the integrity of the election process. The importance of Ukraine is clearly recognized.

Discussion of the future relationship between Canada and Ukraine was largely absent during the federal election campaign, however. But bipartisan agreement on active engagement with Ukraine could be a unifying cause in the new House of Commons.

In a recent speech, Prime Minister Mark Rutte of the Netherlands called for a more concerted and creative action by middle powers to fill the gap left by the stalemate of the big powers and the breakdown of multi-lateral co-operation. He said, “We have to respond to the shifting global balance of power. As middle powers, we must act in concert if we want to make sure our voices are heard.”

Mr. Zelensky must hear these voices challenging the meddling of the Americans and some Europeans. Ukraine needs to receive resources and aid that reinforce anti-corruption efforts, economic renewal and the preservation of its independence. Most crucially, Mr. Zelensky must return to the path of democratic reform and defence of Ukraine’s national interest against Russia’s invasion.

Further backsliding will quickly lead to loss of domestic support. Ukraine needs to know that they are important to others – not as a pawn, but as a partner.

**********

 
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Apparently things are getting worse in Ukraine.  And apparently Joe Biden learned NOTHING from Afghanistan:

State Dept: “We've authorised the departure of some US government employees, but we have ordered the departure of all family members of US government employees at our Embassy in Kiev. The State Department has also elevated our travel advisory for Ukraine to level four.”

From State Dept call: “Given that the President has said military action by Russia could come at any time. The US government will not be in a position to evacuate US citizens. So US citizens, currently present in Ukraine should plan accordingly.” Arrange commercial flights.


https://twitter.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/1485415912706613249?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1485415912706613249|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fredstate.com%2Fbonchie%2F2022%2F01%2F23%2Fjoe-biden-just-told-americans-in-ukraine-to-go-jump-in-a-lake-n511568

Abandoning American citizens AGAIN.  :(

 
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Putin isn't going to start a war over the Ukraine. He is not stupid. It's a bluff to get NATO and the US to back off in Eastern Europe and increase his popularity in Russia. If he was  going to invade the Ukraine he would have done it already, he wouldn't have lined up his troops and waited for the US and NATO to react.

Note: I am no expert, this is just my uninformed opinion.

 
That sucks man.  Just sucks.  I don’t know #### but I’ve got a bad feeling about all of this.  
I hear ya.  I honestly don't have a good sense of which way this thing is swaying at the moment.  The groundwork is being set, but we're definitely not hard spinning up yet.  

Historically once we start building out contingency plans we go all in and plan for worst case scenario.  We get teams prepped to be anywhere in the world in a moment's notice.  We've moved people to be in the right place as a precaution before and it has turned out to be nothing. Better safe than sorry thinking.

Right now we're on edge, but not doing some of the typical things we'd normally do.  Pure hunch is that we don't have any real indications of an event or the plan is to stay out of it.  

 
Putin isn't going to start a war over the Ukraine. He is not stupid. It's a bluff to get NATO and the US to back off in Eastern Europe and increase his popularity in Russia. If he was  going to invade the Ukraine he would have done it already, he wouldn't have lined up his troops and waited for the US and NATO to react.

Note: I am no expert, this is just my uninformed opinion.
If Putin goes forward with any of this, it likely causes countries like Finland, Sweden and Switzerland to join NATO.  He definitely doesn't want that.

I agree this is likely all for show.  He controls all the media in Russia so he can say whatever he wants and the people will have no real way to verify it.  There's nothing here for him to gain by going into Ukraine and everything to lose.  He knows this.

 
what would you like to see? 

what I will try NOT to do, is judge Biden differently than I judged Trump which of course, was of course my point

Biden looks very very weak right now 
I really don't have any opinion of how Trump was treated versus Biden on this and don't really care TBH. This thread was like 40 pages of Obama in any case.

In my view here there is nothing we can really do except the threat of sanctions, align with our allies in the region, provide aid to Ukraine. 

Again, what would you like to see done?

 
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I hear ya.  I honestly don't have a good sense of which way this thing is swaying at the moment.  The groundwork is being set, but we're definitely not hard spinning up yet.  

Historically once we start building out contingency plans we go all in and plan for worst case scenario.  We get teams prepped to be anywhere in the world in a moment's notice.  We've moved people to be in the right place as a precaution before and it has turned out to be nothing. Better safe than sorry thinking.

Right now we're on edge, but not doing some of the typical things we'd normally do.  Pure hunch is that we don't have any real indications of an event or the plan is to stay out of it.  
As always, thanks for your service and thanks for the insight.  It’s truly appreciated.  

 
I really don't have any opinion of how Trump was treated versus Biden on this and don't really care TBH. This thread was like 40 pages of Obama in any case.

In my view there here is nothing we can really do except the threat of sanctions, align with our allies in the region, provide aid to Ukraine. 

Again, what would you like to see done?


me ?

I would stay the hell out of it to be honest .... if Russia is strong enough to conquer Ukraine and the UN is weak enough to allow it and Ukraine doesn't have any bordering countries/allies to help them ... I don't know, what I DONT want is US troops on the ground, billions in taxdollars being sent to Ukraine, or to a an airport ala Obama/Iran deal or anything like that

let the UN handle it - its their job right ?  https://www.un.org/en/our-work/maintain-international-peace-and-security

lets take a seat - just for once - and let the UN do it ... oh, sanctions or trade embargo or something sure but overall ? let the UN deal with it, financially, physically, diplomatically ... however they decide

 
me ?

I would stay the hell out of it to be honest .... if Russia is strong enough to conquer Ukraine and the UN is weak enough to allow it and Ukraine doesn't have any bordering countries/allies to help them ... I don't know, what I DONT want is US troops on the ground, billions in taxdollars being sent to Ukraine, or to a an airport ala Obama/Iran deal or anything like that

let the UN handle it - its their job right ?  https://www.un.org/en/our-work/maintain-international-peace-and-security

lets take a seat - just for once - and let the UN do it ... oh, sanctions or trade embargo or something sure but overall ? let the UN deal with it, financially, physically, diplomatically ... however they decide
I think most agree regarding our involvement.

How is our response looking weak? 

 
I think most agree regarding our involvement.

How is our response looking weak? 


Biden is weak- the leaving of Afghanistan like he did, he's physical appearances/weakness, his general inability to be a strong president IMO

Biden IS the face of response ..... and so far, it appears Putin is laughing and holding a lets go Brandon sign

 
Biden is weak- the leaving of Afghanistan like he did, he's physical appearances/weakness, his general inability to be a strong president IMO

Biden IS the face of response ..... and so far, it appears Putin is laughing and holding a lets go Brandon sign
So nothing to do with actions or inactions concerning the Ukraine.

 
Biden is weak- the leaving of Afghanistan like he did, he's physical appearances/weakness, his general inability to be a strong president IMO

Biden IS the face of response ..... and so far, it appears Putin is laughing and holding a lets go Brandon sign
But you want the UN to handle this? 

 
Biden is weak- the leaving of Afghanistan like he did, he's physical appearances/weakness, his general inability to be a strong president IMO

Biden IS the face of response ..... and so far, it appears Putin is laughing and holding a lets go Brandon sign
Haha.  Biden is weak based on his appearance?  His leaving Afghanistan?  Trump started the Afghanistan withdrawal, remember?  And Biden is showing the opposite of weakness, he's showing strength by talking to Putin directly and not just capitulating to him at every turn like Trump.  Biden has rallied our allies and is showing strength.

Weakness?  You have got to be kidding me.

 
So nothing to do with actions or inactions concerning the Ukraine.


part of how a President is gauged is foreign relations, right ?

Biden has said some very strong words towards Russia / Ukraine ..... has he not ? he toed some lines in the sand and IMO Putin will walk over those lines and kick sand in Biden's face in the process and what will Joe do ?

But you want the UN to handle this? 


I'd rather have seen Joe simply step back from it all but instead he's fluffing his old worn out tail feathers IMO

 
Haha.  Biden is weak based on his appearance?  His leaving Afghanistan?  Trump started the Afghanistan withdrawal, remember?  And Biden is showing the opposite of weakness, he's showing strength by talking to Putin directly and not just capitulating to him at every turn like Trump.  Biden has rallied our allies and is showing strength.

Weakness?  You have got to be kidding me.


has Putin / Russia / Afghanistan / any country really done anything other than what they wanted to do in the last year ?

serious question  

 
has Putin / Russia / Afghanistan / any country really done anything other than what they wanted to do in the last year ?

serious question  
Putin wants NATO to abandon Ukraine, so he can install another puppet government. That has not happened. So yes, Putin hasn't done what he wanted to do in the last year.

 
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