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WR Sammy Watkins, BAL (3 Viewers)

B..b..b..b.b..ut if he was Eric Decker he would command more targets. Sammy needs to get the hell out of Buffalo. Once again the haters are silenced and waiting for another 1 target game to pounce on Sammy's "lack of ability". LMAO at some of the clowns in here.
You guys keep referring to haters.. nobody is hating on Sammy.
Well depends what you consider hating because there are a lot in here that walk that fine line. Watkins was one of the best WR prospects to come out in the last number of years and although he is only in his second year in the league he gets trashed every time he has an off game.

A lot of the detractors in here laugh at the thought of comparing Watkins to the elite WR's in the league, but his college career, draft hype/spot, his play thus far in his short NFL career have him trending into becoming elite.

At 22 years of age and what I am seeing on the filed I see Watkins continuing to develop and become a force for a long time.

 
Crazy how great his stats are on only 74 targets.

827 yards and 9 td's on 74 fricken targets. Can you imagine if they actually utilized him properly each week.
But will he reach 1000 yards? That is the only measure of success that matters.
I was just about to say that. Right now, Ted Ginn Jr. Is the better receiver.
How many other receivers do we declare elite, and compare with Hall of Famers before they can achieve this moderate bar (1000 yards)?
He was always considered as an elite prospect who will develop into an elite WR (this is from a lot of very important and highly paid NFL talent who evaluate). It is clear that he is trending into becoming elite. I don't know how anyone can say otherwise at this stage from what we are seeing on the field.

You can declare this 1000 yard statistic which he only missed by 18 yards in his rookie year by the way, as your measureable, however I will watch and see he is on the verge of growing into an elite force.

 
Detractors, pessimists, naysayers, doubters, haters, fence walkers, all the same. He is not elite and beneath Decker when he goes for 11 yards on one target and then quick to praise and thank him when he goes on a fat tear. Yeah...its as clear as day. Lol. How convenient.

 
Matuski, you realize Watkins was out for 3 games this year and was injured before half time in another game meaning he has not played in 3.5 game this year. You also realize in week 1 he had 3 targets that went for 0 yards and 0 catches. Essentially deeming that game as worthless. That is 4.5 games this year with nothing.

So although he has played in 10.5 games this year (9.5 if you exclude week 1) he has manage to have 827 yards and 9'td's in those other games.

I take it you don't watch a ton of Bills games if you are using 1000 yards in this instance as a measuring stick. If you see what is transpiring over the back half of this year you may start to see he is trending into becoming elite.

 
Matuski, you realize Watkins was out for 3 games this year and was injured before half time in another game meaning he has not played in 3.5 game this year. You also realize in week 1 he had 3 targets that went for 0 yards and 0 catches. Essentially deeming that game as worthless. That is 4.5 games this year with nothing.

So although he has played in 10.5 games this year (9.5 if you exclude week 1) he has manage to have 827 yards and 9'td's in those other games.

I take it you don't watch a ton of Bills games if you are using 1000 yards in this instance as a measuring stick. If you see what is transpiring over the back half of this year you may start to see he is trending into becoming elite.
Dont bother! Matuski has been a Watkins fan all along and is now reaping the benefits of his fantastic run! You sure fooled us Matuski!!! We thought you were a detractor when you said he wasnt on Mike Evans level or even Jordan Matthews (his peers) and was comparable to Eric Decker. But now we see you were tricking us and motivating Sammy. Joke was on us!
 
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Matuski, you realize Watkins was out for 3 games this year and was injured before half time in another game meaning he has not played in 3.5 game this year. You also realize in week 1 he had 3 targets that went for 0 yards and 0 catches. Essentially deeming that game as worthless. That is 4.5 games this year with nothing.

So although he has played in 10.5 games this year (9.5 if you exclude week 1) he has manage to have 827 yards and 9'td's in those other games.

I take it you don't watch a ton of Bills games if you are using 1000 yards in this instance as a measuring stick. If you see what is transpiring over the back half of this year you may start to see he is trending into becoming elite.
Lots of players are hurt every year. It doesn't change our standards of production. I could understand using these excuses if he had done it before.. but he hasn't. He has been on a tear for weeks now... to get into top 25-30 range.

Just say it - he doesn't belong in comparisons to Hall of Famers or elite current WRs... yet.

Not because what he coulda woulda shoulda if this or if that happened.

I do watch the games, I own and have started him through the playoffs... he has looked very good. Not all time great, or elite... very good.

 
Matuski, you realize Watkins was out for 3 games this year and was injured before half time in another game meaning he has not played in 3.5 game this year. You also realize in week 1 he had 3 targets that went for 0 yards and 0 catches. Essentially deeming that game as worthless. That is 4.5 games this year with nothing.

So although he has played in 10.5 games this year (9.5 if you exclude week 1) he has manage to have 827 yards and 9'td's in those other games.

I take it you don't watch a ton of Bills games if you are using 1000 yards in this instance as a measuring stick. If you see what is transpiring over the back half of this year you may start to see he is trending into becoming elite.
Dont bother! Matuski has been a Watkins fan all along and is now reaping the benefits of his fantastic run! You sure fooled us Matuski!!! We thought you were a detractor when you said he wasnt on Mike Evans level or even Jordan Matthews (his peers) and was comparable to Eric Decker. But now we see you were tricking us and motivating Sammy. Joke was on us!
Your attempts to misconstrue my position on Watkins only conveys you have nothing to counter it with legitimately.

My arguing against him being compared to the greats in the game is not hate... it is a dose of reality.

Another dose - A hot streak over a few weeks does not put him on Decker or Evans production level... he isn't there yet. He could get back to Deckers level with continued streak and help from Decker.

 
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See this is where you are talking in circles matuski.

You are basing your level of elite on isolated things to detract from who Watkins will be.

You say Watkins is not there yet, which is fine seeing as how he has been in the league for 1.75 years. Why don't you go back and look at how the likes of Brown and Decker were doing after 1.75 years in the league or will that not strengthen your argument?

If fantasy owners were taking a short sighted approach to Watkins and not looking at what he may be (which most believe he will be elite) than you end up waiting till his price is far too inflated after he blows up. If you are in a league that has owners detracting who Watkins is going to be and have an owner itchy to move him, then you should jump all over that.

As a Watkins owner if I saw a trade offer in my inbox for Decker I could not hit decline fast enough. By the way you are talking in here you would accept that trade, which would be a big mistake.

 
So what is Watkin's dynasty value now? It's like a tale of two seasons. Is this for real??? Because if it is, then I think he is a top 5 WR next season.

 
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fred_1_15301 said:
shader said:
Decker=Watkins. LOL
While I think Watkins will end up better than Decker when all is said and done, you seem to be frivolously dismissing how good Decker actually is. :shrug:
Dont forget to bake in the fact that one has Brandon Marshall lined up across from him plus he is turning 30 soon. Its like a 23 year old graduating from college and a 16 year old graduating from college. The 23 year old is expected to graduate. The 16 year old stands out on some Doogie Howser type ish. That is Watkins
 
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Sammy is 8 pts behind Evans with 56 less targets. He's 27 pts behind Cooper on 50 less targets. He's 8th overall in ppg. This guy is doing all this w a 1st year starter. The concentration required on some of these catches is incredible. If Sammy can continue to grow, and develop more chemistry with a qb, he's gonna be joining tier 1 sooner rather than later. I was expecting the development to take another 16-24 months. Christmas has arrived early Sammy owners! :headbang:

 
Next Gen Stats: Norman didn't shut down Beckham

Excerpt:

2. Sammy Watkins isn't quite at Brown's level, but he's trending in that direction. Watkins is fourth in receiving yards and third in receiving touchdowns over the past five weeks. Emerging as one of the NFL's most dangerous deep threats, Watkins reached 22.13 mph on his 48-yard bomb -- the second-fastest speed on a touchdown catch this season. The previous week against Philadelphia, Watkins had the fourth-highest speed (21.15 mph) on his first-quarter touchdown. As well as he's playing, it's understandable that he would be calling out underperforming teammates for not putting forth the same effort level.
 
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....can we start really looking at Sammy? Take the stats out of it, he could be the the next best if the team comes along for the ride. I see Brown, I see Fitz and Cooper might be right behind them. But so much matters on the team makeup. Trade him for Brown and tell me Watkins wouldn't be awesome. He looks like the best player on the field.

 
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....can we start really looking at Sammy? Take the stats out of it, he could be the the next best if the team comes along for the ride. I see Brown, I see Fitz and Cooper might be right behind them. But so much matters on the team makeup. Trade him for Brown and tell me Watkins wouldn't be awesome. He looks like the best player on the field.
All hypothetical. The reality is Watkins hasn't even put up a season as good as Eric Decker or, hell, even Ted Ginn. Nothing to see here yet, move along.
 
Remember back in the dark ages when the standard narrative was that WRs took three years to develop? I get that the timetable is accelerated, but to call "bust" on a player who has been his team's leading receiver for his first two seasons and flirted with 1000 yards seems premature.

 
Remember back in the dark ages when the standard narrative was that WRs took three years to develop? I get that the timetable is accelerated, but to call "bust" on a player who has been his team's leading receiver for his first two seasons and flirted with 1000 yards seems premature.
Some owners around here suffer from a condition called "premature devaluation".
 
Remember back in the dark ages when the standard narrative was that WRs took three years to develop? I get that the timetable is accelerated, but to call "bust" on a player who has been his team's leading receiver for his first two seasons and flirted with 1000 yards seems premature.
But he doesn't actually HAVE 1,000 yards yet. And that is the primary benchmark around here.
 
....can we start really looking at Sammy? Take the stats out of it, he could be the the next best if the team comes along for the ride. I see Brown, I see Fitz and Cooper might be right behind them. But so much matters on the team makeup. Trade him for Brown and tell me Watkins wouldn't be awesome. He looks like the best player on the field.
All hypothetical. The reality is Watkins hasn't even put up a season as good as Eric Decker or, hell, even Ted Ginn. Nothing to see here yet, move along.
Remember back in the dark ages when the standard narrative was that WRs took three years to develop? I get that the timetable is accelerated, but to call "bust" on a player who has been his team's leading receiver for his first two seasons and flirted with 1000 yards seems premature.
But he doesn't actually HAVE 1,000 yards yet. And that is the primary benchmark around here.
You are among the worst trolls on the site. You act like 1,005 yards is an entirely different season than 995. If you truly can't distinguish between Sammie's injured and earlier learning games and this last half season, you need another hobby. If you are just fishing ... again ... please take it somewhere else.

 
....can we start really looking at Sammy? Take the stats out of it, he could be the the next best if the team comes along for the ride. I see Brown, I see Fitz and Cooper might be right behind them. But so much matters on the team makeup. Trade him for Brown and tell me Watkins wouldn't be awesome. He looks like the best player on the field.
All hypothetical. The reality is Watkins hasn't even put up a season as good as Eric Decker or, hell, even Ted Ginn. Nothing to see here yet, move along.
Remember back in the dark ages when the standard narrative was that WRs took three years to develop? I get that the timetable is accelerated, but to call "bust" on a player who has been his team's leading receiver for his first two seasons and flirted with 1000 yards seems premature.
But he doesn't actually HAVE 1,000 yards yet. And that is the primary benchmark around here.
You are among the worst trolls on the site. You act like 1,005 yards is an entirely different season than 995. If you truly can't distinguish between Sammie's injured and earlier learning games and this last half season, you need another hobby. If you are just fishing ... again ... please take it somewhere else.
Dude. Go back and read the thread. It's sarcasm. I'm a huge Sammy fan. Just mocking the small handful of trolls who have permeated this thread.Jesus. Relax.

 
....can we start really looking at Sammy? Take the stats out of it, he could be the the next best if the team comes along for the ride. I see Brown, I see Fitz and Cooper might be right behind them. But so much matters on the team makeup. Trade him for Brown and tell me Watkins wouldn't be awesome. He looks like the best player on the field.
All hypothetical. The reality is Watkins hasn't even put up a season as good as Eric Decker or, hell, even Ted Ginn. Nothing to see here yet, move along.
Remember back in the dark ages when the standard narrative was that WRs took three years to develop? I get that the timetable is accelerated, but to call "bust" on a player who has been his team's leading receiver for his first two seasons and flirted with 1000 yards seems premature.
But he doesn't actually HAVE 1,000 yards yet. And that is the primary benchmark around here.
You are among the worst trolls on the site. You act like 1,005 yards is an entirely different season than 995. If you truly can't distinguish between Sammie's injured and earlier learning games and this last half season, you need another hobby. If you are just fishing ... again ... please take it somewhere else.
Dude. Go back and read the thread. It's sarcasm. I'm a huge Sammy fan. Just mocking the small handful of trolls who have permeated this thread.Jesus. Relax.
All you did was add the troll level of this thread. You just countered my point to aid your troll battle not to aid in the discussion.

 
....can we start really looking at Sammy? Take the stats out of it, he could be the the next best if the team comes along for the ride. I see Brown, I see Fitz and Cooper might be right behind them. But so much matters on the team makeup. Trade him for Brown and tell me Watkins wouldn't be awesome. He looks like the best player on the field.
All hypothetical. The reality is Watkins hasn't even put up a season as good as Eric Decker or, hell, even Ted Ginn. Nothing to see here yet, move along.
Remember back in the dark ages when the standard narrative was that WRs took three years to develop? I get that the timetable is accelerated, but to call "bust" on a player who has been his team's leading receiver for his first two seasons and flirted with 1000 yards seems premature.
But he doesn't actually HAVE 1,000 yards yet. And that is the primary benchmark around here.
You are among the worst trolls on the site. You act like 1,005 yards is an entirely different season than 995. If you truly can't distinguish between Sammie's injured and earlier learning games and this last half season, you need another hobby. If you are just fishing ... again ... please take it somewhere else.
Dude. Go back and read the thread. It's sarcasm. I'm a huge Sammy fan. Just mocking the small handful of trolls who have permeated this thread.Jesus. Relax.
All you did was add the troll level of this thread. You just countered my point to aid your troll battle not to aid in the discussion.
Merry Christmas
 
How can you not be impressed watching these last several weeks? Guy seems open at will. If I was tyrod, I would chuck it up to him deep on any 3rd and long situation.

 
Those who actually follow Sammy and not end of the year statistics know that he has been making DBs look silly since training camp. He was virtually uncoverable. Whatever stick Tyrod Taylor has stuck up his ### needs to be promptly removed. They are sitting on a well of riches and dont even realize it.

 
Those who actually follow Sammy and not end of the year statistics know that he has been making DBs look silly since training camp. He was virtually uncoverable. Whatever stick Tyrod Taylor has stuck up his ### needs to be promptly removed. They are sitting on a well of riches and dont even realize it.
Yep - I would try to trade for Watkins now before everyone realizes how good he is

 
Decker=Watkins. LOL
2014

65 982 6

74 962 5

2015

44 827 9

72 930 10

The comp was on production, anyone trying to misrepresent this would be trolling. The production speaks for itself, and I would challenge you to find a better comp on this basis. I'm thinking I nailed it.

Of course the whole purpose of bringing up his production was to point out the lack of players you are comparing to all time greats with Decker (now fighting to catch Decker) level stats. All I am saying, all I have been saying.

 
Decker=Watkins. LOL
2014

65 982 6

74 962 5

2015

44 827 9

72 930 10

The comp was on production, anyone trying to misrepresent this would be trolling. The production speaks for itself, and I would challenge you to find a better comp on this basis. I'm thinking I nailed it.

Of course the whole purpose of bringing up his production was to point out the lack of players you are comparing to all time greats with Decker (now fighting to catch Decker) level stats. All I am saying, all I have been saying.
You've been deliberately obtuse the whole thread.Merry Christmas

 
Decker=Watkins. LOL
2014

65 982 6

74 962 5

2015

44 827 9

72 930 10

The comp was on production, anyone trying to misrepresent this would be trolling. The production speaks for itself, and I would challenge you to find a better comp on this basis. I'm thinking I nailed it.

Of course the whole purpose of bringing up his production was to point out the lack of players you are comparing to all time greats with Decker (now fighting to catch Decker) level stats. All I am saying, all I have been saying.
Interesting on how you cherry picked the last 2 years of stats, when Decker has been in the league for 6 years. Since this is Sammy's SECOND year, let's look at Decker's first 2 years compared to Sammy's:

Decker:

2010 (16 games) - 6 106 1

2011 (16 games) - 44 612 8

Sammy:

2014 (16 games) - 65 982 6

2015 (10 games) - 44 827 9 (and counting)

See what i did there?

 
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Decker=Watkins. LOL
2014

65 982 6

74 962 5

2015

44 827 9

72 930 10

The comp was on production, anyone trying to misrepresent this would be trolling. The production speaks for itself, and I would challenge you to find a better comp on this basis. I'm thinking I nailed it.

Of course the whole purpose of bringing up his production was to point out the lack of players you are comparing to all time greats with Decker (now fighting to catch Decker) level stats. All I am saying, all I have been saying.
Interesting on how you cherry picked the last 2 years of stats, when Decker has been in the league for 6 years. Since this is Sammy's SECOND year, let's look at Decker's first 2 years compared to Sammy's:

Decker:

2010 - 6 106 1

2011 - 44 612 8

Sammy:

2014 - 65 982 6

2015 - 44 827 9 (and counting)

See what i did there?
Sammy and Decker overlapping career stats. If anything, this is a slight to Decker by ignoring his better seasons prior.

Without the cherry picking, Sammy has a LOT of work to do to catch Decker's career production in the NFL.

eta - If you want to cherry pick as you did, go for it. Obviously his first two years are better than Deckers... but that wasn't the comp I used.

eta again - of course arguing back and forth on cherry picking is again missing the overriding point. No matter your cherry picking, Sammy hasn't done anything to earn comps to Hall of Famers.

 
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Decker=Watkins. LOL
2014

65 982 6

74 962 5

2015

44 827 9

72 930 10

The comp was on production, anyone trying to misrepresent this would be trolling. The production speaks for itself, and I would challenge you to find a better comp on this basis. I'm thinking I nailed it.

Of course the whole purpose of bringing up his production was to point out the lack of players you are comparing to all time greats with Decker (now fighting to catch Decker) level stats. All I am saying, all I have been saying.
Interesting on how you cherry picked the last 2 years of stats, when Decker has been in the league for 6 years. Since this is Sammy's SECOND year, let's look at Decker's first 2 years compared to Sammy's:

Decker:

2010 - 6 106 1

2011 - 44 612 8

Sammy:

2014 - 65 982 6

2015 - 44 827 9 (and counting)

See what i did there?
Sammy and Decker overlapping career stats. If anything, this is a slight to Decker by ignoring his better seasons prior.

Without the cherry picking, Sammy has a LOT of work to do to catch Decker's career production in the NFL.

eta - If you want to cherry pick as you did, go for it. Obviously his first two years are better than Deckers... but that wasn't the comp I used.

eta again - of course arguing back and forth on cherry picking is again missing the overriding point. No matter your cherry picking, Sammy hasn't done anything to earn comps to Hall of Famers.
I mean the title of the thread is "Sammy Watkins the next Andre Johnson"

Andrer:

2003 (16 games) - 66 976 4

2004 (16 games) - 79 1142 6

Sammy:

2014 (16 games) - 65 982 6

2015 (10 games) - 44 827 9 (and counting)

First year is eery.

On a per game basis 2nd year is

4.1/61.0/0.25 vs 4.4/82.7/0.9

 
Decker=Watkins. LOL
2014

65 982 6

74 962 5

2015

44 827 9

72 930 10

The comp was on production, anyone trying to misrepresent this would be trolling. The production speaks for itself, and I would challenge you to find a better comp on this basis. I'm thinking I nailed it.

Of course the whole purpose of bringing up his production was to point out the lack of players you are comparing to all time greats with Decker (now fighting to catch Decker) level stats. All I am saying, all I have been saying.
You've been deliberately obtuse the whole thread.Merry Christmas
This.

You have been talking in circles when the word elite is mentioned next to Watkins. You squirm and claim Watkins is not elite by cherry picking stats to try and prove a point which comes across as faulty logic. You claim Watkins is not as good as Decker due to production. When the question comes back your way with comparing Watkins first 1.75 years in the league to that of Decker's you ignore this or saying we are ignoring Decker's best stats which is we are saying cherry picking.

Also, when the question of analyzing Watkins early career stats in comparison to some other elite Wr's in the league right now you again ignore this point. Heck I mentioned it earlier but ldizzle just posted it again how the thread title compares Watkins to Andre Johnson and the start of their career starts are almost identical. But I am sure you will find a way to discredit these factual production numbers that are right in front of you by some how bringing Decker into the equation.

You have continuously called it silly to call Watkins elite due to not having any production that matches elite. Well if you would not be so obtuse you would be able to realize like the majority of us that not only is Watkins trending into becoming elite, he is already ahead of the curve in terms of what young WR's have done before him who have then gone onto become elite. But hey if want to keep ignoring logical production, his draft status, his very good early career stats, his passing the eye test, his ability to beat DB's all over the field etc. then I don't think anyone will ever be able to get through to you.

I can only imagine what you were saying when Peyton Manning came into the league and looked the part and had some pretty good stats but not as good as the likes of Kitna and Kerry Collins and company. Would you have only looked and compared those year 1 stats to those guys best career numbers. Don't be so obtuse man.

 
Decker=Watkins. LOL
2014

65 982 6

74 962 5

2015

44 827 9

72 930 10

The comp was on production, anyone trying to misrepresent this would be trolling. The production speaks for itself, and I would challenge you to find a better comp on this basis. I'm thinking I nailed it.

Of course the whole purpose of bringing up his production was to point out the lack of players you are comparing to all time greats with Decker (now fighting to catch Decker) level stats. All I am saying, all I have been saying.
I am not sure I really understand the argument anymore?

Watkins is a more skilled receiver. If I could draft today knowing their stats would play out exactly as they had so far, I would draft Watkins higher in a heartbeat. Decker has 151 points compared to Watkins 136.

In PPR I assume most people would still actually draft Watkins higher because of the finishing numbers for playoff runs and the fact that when a guy doesn't play you can start somebody else and still get points, but not as clear cut.

Decker has more career numbers.

In a draft next year of any format Watkins will go much higher.

Is any of the above untrue?

 
Decker=Watkins. LOL
2014

65 982 6

74 962 5

2015

44 827 9

72 930 10

The comp was on production, anyone trying to misrepresent this would be trolling. The production speaks for itself, and I would challenge you to find a better comp on this basis. I'm thinking I nailed it.

Of course the whole purpose of bringing up his production was to point out the lack of players you are comparing to all time greats with Decker (now fighting to catch Decker) level stats. All I am saying, all I have been saying.
I am not sure I really understand the argument anymore?Watkins is a more skilled receiver. If I could draft today knowing their stats would play out exactly as they had so far, I would draft Watkins higher in a heartbeat. Decker has 151 points compared to Watkins 136.

In PPR I assume most people would still actually draft Watkins higher because of the finishing numbers for playoff runs and the fact that when a guy doesn't play you can start somebody else and still get points, but not as clear cut.

Decker has more career numbers.

In a draft next year of any format Watkins will go much higher.

Is any of the above untrue?
Anyone who says they would prefer Decker to Watkins is full of hot steaming shyt. You hear that Matuski?

 
Decker=Watkins. LOL
2014

65 982 6

74 962 5

2015

44 827 9

72 930 10

The comp was on production, anyone trying to misrepresent this would be trolling. The production speaks for itself, and I would challenge you to find a better comp on this basis. I'm thinking I nailed it.

Of course the whole purpose of bringing up his production was to point out the lack of players you are comparing to all time greats with Decker (now fighting to catch Decker) level stats. All I am saying, all I have been saying.
I am not sure I really understand the argument anymore?Watkins is a more skilled receiver. If I could draft today knowing their stats would play out exactly as they had so far, I would draft Watkins higher in a heartbeat. Decker has 151 points compared to Watkins 136.

In PPR I assume most people would still actually draft Watkins higher because of the finishing numbers for playoff runs and the fact that when a guy doesn't play you can start somebody else and still get points, but not as clear cut.

Decker has more career numbers.

In a draft next year of any format Watkins will go much higher.

Is any of the above untrue?
Anyone who says they would prefer Decker to Watkins is full of hot steaming shyt. You hear that Matuski?
:thumbup: :thumbup: :thumbup:

 
Watkins has all of the elements of elite. Matuski has clearly dug his heels in and this is a useless argument.

There's no valid argument against Sammy being a star beyond injury and play calling, which are both fluid situations. Players can be knicked up for a year or two and then have a career with few injury worries. Regarding play calling, recent weeks are showing a positive trend that Sammy is getting more passes thrown his way. I'm not sure they can put that genie back in the bottle at this point.

 
Watkins has all of the elements of elite. Matuski has clearly dug his heels in and this is a useless argument.

There's no valid argument against Sammy being a star beyond injury and play calling, which are both fluid situations. Players can be knicked up for a year or two and then have a career with few injury worries. Regarding play calling, recent weeks are showing a positive trend that Sammy is getting more passes thrown his way. I'm not sure they can put that genie back in the bottle at this point.
I think by now we all know what Matuski is doing here. Its like when a kid tells his parent I hate you. We know they dont mean it, they just want the attention that comes with it. No one is really taking that guy serious. We just like to debate. Thats what these threads are for.
 
Comparative examination: Sammy Watkins vs. The elite

Sammy Watkins v. Julio Jones v. Antonio Brown

Seeing that all things are NOT equal with regard to target volume, I will convert the data into per target units. Enjoy.

Sammy Watkins: .60 receptions per target, 11.24 yards per target, .11 touchdowns per target. (Total targets on the year: 81)

Julio Jones: .66 receptions per target, 8.96 yards per target, .04 touchdowns per target. (Total targets on the year: 192)

Antonio Brown: .69 receptions per target, 9.35 yards per target, .05 touchdowns per target. (Total targets on the year: 176)

Years in the league: Sammy (2), Julio (5), Antonio (6)

Right up there with the game's elite in only his second year.

For shyts and giggles:

Mike Evans: .50 receptions per target, 7.96 yards per target, .02 touchdowns per target. (Total targets on the year: 139)

Hmmmmm....

Seems Sammy might not be the problem. If he received a healthy amount of targets, maybe he puts up better numbers. Just a theory... Lol.

Sammy in Atlanta: 115 receptions, 2,158 yards, 21 touchdowns.

Sammy in Pittsburgh: 105 receptions, 1978 yards, 19 touchdowns.

Sammy in Tampa Bay: 83 receptions, 1562 yards, 15 touchdowns.

Pretty extreme, but even after shaving some yards and touchdowns off, these projected numbers would place him in the top tier of receiving. Not bad for an "average" second year receiver who has never gained 1000 yards receiving. I do not believe 2000 yards and 15 touchdowns are the norm, but 10 touchdowns and 1500 yards are not out of the question. As a Watkins owner, you have to feel pretty good about owning him. He has nowhere to go but UP!

 
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Per-target numbers are junk. The target is not the proper unit of opportunity for a WR, the route run is. Also: YPA has a known bias towards deep passes, and that bias also applies to per-target stats, but exacerbated since it's a smaller sample size.

Don't believe me? Here's every season by a WR with 50+ targets and 11+ yards per target since 1992 (as far back as PFR has target data):

2015 Sammy Watkins

2015 Torry Holt

2014 Desean Jackson

2014 Kenny Stills

2013 Kenny Stills

2011 Victor Cruz

2011 Malcom Floyd

2011 James Jones

2011 Jordy Nelson

2010 Desean Jackson

2010 Mike Wallace

2009 Robert Meachem

2008 Devery Henderson

2008 Steve Smith

2007 Anthony Gonzalez

2007 Santonio Holmes

2006 Devery Henderson

2006 Joe Horn

2005 Santana Moss

2004 Plaxico Burress

2004 Lee Evans

2002 Dennis Northcutt

2000 Torry Holt

2000 Randy Moss

1999 Tim Dwight

1999 Az-Zahir Hakim

1995 Qadry Ismail

1993 John Taylor

That's... not a very good list of WRs. There are a couple of great ones on it, though usually only once, and usually early in their careers when they were still a complementary piece rather than the main guy, (or, in Joe Horn's case, late in his career when he was just a complementary piece instead of the main guy). But about 90% of those seasons have something very obvious in common- the player was just a one-note deep threat.

Now, Sammy's total targets is towards the top of that pack (13th in total targets, 7th in targets per game, one of 12 players with over 6 targets per game). I'm not saying he's Robert Meachem. I'm saying receivers average more yards per target on deep routes than they do on shallow routes, so Sammy Watkins' YPT averages aren't comparable to Antonio Brown's or Julio Jones' because Sammy doesn't run any shallow routes and those guys do. Watkins huge per-target stats have much more to do with his role than with his talent.

If Buffalo kept Sammy's 6.75 targets per game as a pure deep threat, and they added another 4 targets per game on short-to-intermediate routes, Sammy Watkins' per-target stats would drop by a pretty substantial amount. But Sammy would wind up with more targets, more catches, more yards, and be a bigger part of the offense. It would be an unambiguously good thing for him. And honestly, Buffalo should do that- we saw him roast Revis, (who isn't REVIS anymore, but who is still a quality cornerback), on those quick out routes. Watkins was a YAC monster in college and would be a beast on screens in the NFL.

I think Watkins is a star. I've already gone on record that he's probably going to be my "Litmus Test WR" in 2016- the guy I bring up to see who is actually watching the games and who is just reading the press clippings. (Past "Litmus Test WRs" include Jordy, Antonio, and DeAndre.) But I don't think his per-target stats are the way to demonstrate it. All they show is that Buffalo has stupidly been using their super-expensive, super-talented weapon as a one-trick deep threat.

 
Per-target numbers are junk. The target is not the proper unit of opportunity for a WR, the route run is. Also: YPA has a known bias towards deep passes, and that bias also applies to per-target stats, but exacerbated since it's a smaller sample size.

Don't believe me? Here's every season by a WR with 50+ targets and 11+ yards per target since 1992 (as far back as PFR has target data):

2015 Sammy Watkins

2015 Torry Holt

2014 Desean Jackson

2014 Kenny Stills

2013 Kenny Stills

2011 Victor Cruz

2011 Malcom Floyd

2011 James Jones

2011 Jordy Nelson

2010 Desean Jackson

2010 Mike Wallace

2009 Robert Meachem

2008 Devery Henderson

2008 Steve Smith

2007 Anthony Gonzalez

2007 Santonio Holmes

2006 Devery Henderson

2006 Joe Horn

2005 Santana Moss

2004 Plaxico Burress

2004 Lee Evans

2002 Dennis Northcutt

2000 Torry Holt

2000 Randy Moss

1999 Tim Dwight

1999 Az-Zahir Hakim

1995 Qadry Ismail

1993 John Taylor

That's... not a very good list of WRs. There are a couple of great ones on it, though usually only once, and usually early in their careers when they were still a complementary piece rather than the main guy, (or, in Joe Horn's case, late in his career when he was just a complementary piece instead of the main guy). But about 90% of those seasons have something very obvious in common- the player was just a one-note deep threat.

Now, Sammy's total targets is towards the top of that pack (13th in total targets, 7th in targets per game, one of 12 players with over 6 targets per game). I'm not saying he's Robert Meachem. I'm saying receivers average more yards per target on deep routes than they do on shallow routes, so Sammy Watkins' YPT averages aren't comparable to Antonio Brown's or Julio Jones' because Sammy doesn't run any shallow routes and those guys do. Watkins huge per-target stats have much more to do with his role than with his talent.

If Buffalo kept Sammy's 6.75 targets per game as a pure deep threat, and they added another 4 targets per game on short-to-intermediate routes, Sammy Watkins' per-target stats would drop by a pretty substantial amount. But Sammy would wind up with more targets, more catches, more yards, and be a bigger part of the offense. It would be an unambiguously good thing for him. And honestly, Buffalo should do that- we saw him roast Revis, (who isn't REVIS anymore, but who is still a quality cornerback), on those quick out routes. Watkins was a YAC monster in college and would be a beast on screens in the NFL.

I think Watkins is a star. I've already gone on record that he's probably going to be my "Litmus Test WR" in 2016- the guy I bring up to see who is actually watching the games and who is just reading the press clippings. (Past "Litmus Test WRs" include Jordy, Antonio, and DeAndre.) But I don't think his per-target stats are the way to demonstrate it. All they show is that Buffalo has stupidly been using their super-expensive, super-talented weapon as a one-trick deep threat.
I don't know where you plan on drafting Watkins as your litmus test but I think he is a WR1 right now. If I can get him as my WR2 then I think that's huge and that's what I'm hoping for next year... Pay WR2 prices and get WR1 value

 
Got to love how Sammy has been used so far in the first quarter. Where was this all season? Twenty eight more yards and Watkins will be a relevant receiver!!! Yay!!!!

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Per-target numbers are junk. The target is not the proper unit of opportunity for a WR, the route run is. Also: YPA has a known bias towards deep passes, and that bias also applies to per-target stats, but exacerbated since it's a smaller sample size.

Don't believe me? Here's every season by a WR with 50+ targets and 11+ yards per target since 1992 (as far back as PFR has target data):

2015 Sammy Watkins

2015 Torry Holt

2014 Desean Jackson

2014 Kenny Stills

2013 Kenny Stills

2011 Victor Cruz

2011 Malcom Floyd

2011 James Jones

2011 Jordy Nelson

2010 Desean Jackson

2010 Mike Wallace

2009 Robert Meachem

2008 Devery Henderson

2008 Steve Smith

2007 Anthony Gonzalez

2007 Santonio Holmes

2006 Devery Henderson

2006 Joe Horn

2005 Santana Moss

2004 Plaxico Burress

2004 Lee Evans

2002 Dennis Northcutt

2000 Torry Holt

2000 Randy Moss

1999 Tim Dwight

1999 Az-Zahir Hakim

1995 Qadry Ismail

1993 John Taylor
Great to see Torry Holt dust of the jersey and crush it this year.

 

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