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2016 Fantasy Sleepers and Busts: Spring a new! (1 Viewer)

S

Smack Tripper

Footballguy
Didn't see a thread... haven't done much research yet myself on this...

as a yankee fan, I'll say Pineda is worth a flyer as a 4th starter or worse... chances are he'll have an innings cap but he's seemingly healthy with good bite on the slider. Velocity topping out at 92 so far..

Also, I think Kelly Johnson hits 25 homers between 2nd and 3rd in that park.

And obviously not sleepers but Ellsbury and McCann should see increased homers from that park...

Also at a quick glance (haven't read ADP or a draft board yet, so maybe not all preciesely sleepers but guys I assume value in and Im intrigued by)....

C, Mesorasco, Gomes, Gattis or Ramos... Montero while he still has eligibility

1b Pujols (probably goes too high for good value but should bounce back a bit, you'd think)

2b Rendon, Profar

3b Arenado? Middlebrooks

ss Jeter(see Pujols), Franklin

of Revere, Khris Davis, Yelich (not quite a sleeper but maybe an afterthought), Buxton (not a sleeper but a stash guy on draft day)

SP Cingrani

 
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I'm using ADP numbers from here

C: I like M. Montero (P15), d'Arnaud (P17), Mesoraco (P22) and Zunino (P27).

1B: DH types like Ortiz (P13) and Butler (P20) always seem to go later than they should. Napoli (P24) and Belt (P25) would be decent CI punts.

2B: Kelly Johnson (P24). I like Ackley (P35) for the price of a song

3B: Panda (P14) is in the best shape of his life. Maybe Arenado (P21) could progress.

SS: The ADP shows Bogaerts at P15 for some reason which seems really late. There's somebody in every league who will take a flyer before that. I hate Dee Gordon (P32) but I love cheap steals

OF: Nori Aoki is undervalued. Will Venable is coming off one of the quietest 20/20 seasons ever. Eaton and Fowler in OBP leagues. Avisail Garcia has upside. BJ Upton either improves or loses his job. These guys are all in the ABP 50 range.

SP: Kluber, Peavy, Kazmir, Alex Wood

 
Man there are a lot of adp prices I do not like. Need to do some homework before my draft next week. Started writing out a do not like list and it was turning into a novel.

 
Not sure these guys are going to bust, but I don't think that they live up to the ADP.

Carlos Santana - Don't like him moving to 3B. Being drafted as #3 C behind Posey / Mauer. Could see him dropping out of top 5 with Catcher being somewhat deeper this year.

Votto - Always great in OBP leagues, but are you really in this for walks?

Kinsler - Last 3 year splits show he's horse#### away from Arlington. Can't see 81 in Comerica helping his numbers

Segura - I think people are drafting off of his total 2013 numbers and he's going too high. OPS was .583 in the 2nd half? oof. Could see him falling out of top 10 SS.

 
Using the list above, I like...

C - Ramos (11), Gattis (10)

1B - Teixieria (28) Moreland (46)

2B - Bonifacio (34), Ackley (26)

3B - Headley (17), Moustakas (23)

SS - Asdrubal (12), Gordon (25)

OF - Heyward (24), J Hamilton (25)

SP - Cole (22), Cashner (39), Estrada (55)

 
I'm not a fan of Tulowitzki this year. That means he's good for 150 games and 35 bombers. So draft accordingly.

 
Better than ADP list

Matt Adams - His Sept is a sign of things to come. Top 10 1B this year

Corey Dickerson - Probably won't get full playing time with Stubbs taking v LHP ABs, but he's not going to be the 110th rated OF

Rafeal Furcal - He still has game.

Henderson Alvarez - Not a K guy and not going to net you a lot of wins pitching for the Fish, but ERA and WHIP should be solid.

 
Tyson Ross at SP71 is probably my favorite value. Was really good in 94 IP as a starter last season... 97 K, 3.06 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 2.92 FIP. He's got a nasty slider and he pitches in Petco.

I doubt he'll repeat those numbers over a full season but if he gets anywhere close he'll outperform his ADP by far.

 
I really think wacha can finish top 10 THIS year.

I think nova turned a corner last year and will be a horse for the yanks.

I love ramos as my late round catcher

 
SP: T. Ross, Estrada, and Kluber. I really liked Parker this year also, now he's deads0r. People are worried about Hamels, he is going for less than he should right now and I'm taking the risk because I'm paying #2 money for him.

C Sal Perez to move to top 5, Evan Gattis will hit a boatload of homers

1B: Belt in any league and Adam LaRoche in OBP

2B: I think 2B is pretty deep, which I think puts me in the minority. Alexander Guerrero is scaring everyone off, but he can hit which means he'll play.

SS: Jed Lowrie is good value IMO

3B: Chris Johnson, todd Frazier, and David Freese can be had very cheap as great fill guys at a shallow position

OF: Junior Lake, Pagan, Aoki, Ruf

Guys I don't care for: Hanley, Phiilips, Andrus, Kinsler and Trumbo. I'm still iffy on rookie pitchers, I think people are spending too much to find the next Fernandez and Harvey when that guy might not exist this year.

 
E-Z Glider said:
Using the list above, I like...

C - Ramos (11), Gattis (10)

1B - Teixieria (28) Moreland (46)

2B - Bonifacio (34), Ackley (26)

3B - Headley (17), Moustakas (23)

SS - Asdrubal (12), Gordon (25)

OF - Heyward (24), J Hamilton (25)

SP - Cole (22), Cashner (39), Estrada (55)
Click to expand...
Yeah, am I missing something on Headley? Guy was uber-productive in 2012. In 2013, he had the lowest BABIP of career (though not a crazy drop-off from the year before) and he had the highest LD% of his career. I guess he doesn't have a track record before 2012, but seems like a decent chance at bouncing back.

 
Long Ball Larry said:
E-Z Glider said:
Using the list above, I like...

C - Ramos (11), Gattis (10)

1B - Teixieria (28) Moreland (46)

2B - Bonifacio (34), Ackley (26)

3B - Headley (17), Moustakas (23)

SS - Asdrubal (12), Gordon (25)

OF - Heyward (24), J Hamilton (25)

SP - Cole (22), Cashner (39), Estrada (55)
Click to expand...
Yeah, am I missing something on Headley? Guy was uber-productive in 2012. In 2013, he had the lowest BABIP of career (though not a crazy drop-off from the year before) and he had the highest LD% of his career. I guess he doesn't have a track record before 2012, but seems like a decent chance at bouncing back.
Click to expand...
Contract year too

 
Jonathan Villar, especially in a points league. The BA might be hard to swallow in Roto, but his steals and walks make him a good value in points.

 
Long Ball Larry said:
E-Z Glider said:
Using the list above, I like...

C - Ramos (11), Gattis (10)

1B - Teixieria (28) Moreland (46)

2B - Bonifacio (34), Ackley (26)

3B - Headley (17), Moustakas (23)

SS - Asdrubal (12), Gordon (25)

OF - Heyward (24), J Hamilton (25)

SP - Cole (22), Cashner (39), Estrada (55)
Click to expand...
Yeah, am I missing something on Headley? Guy was uber-productive in 2012. In 2013, he had the lowest BABIP of career (though not a crazy drop-off from the year before) and he had the highest LD% of his career. I guess he doesn't have a track record before 2012, but seems like a decent chance at bouncing back.
Click to expand...
Headley's a great bounce-back candidate and can definitely be had for cheap. Ramos and Gordon are the only guys on this list who didnt go cheap in either of my leagues.

 
Doctor Detroit said:
SP: T. Ross, Estrada, and Kluber. I really liked Parker this year also, now he's deads0r. People are worried about Hamels, he is going for less than he should right now and I'm taking the risk because I'm paying #2 money for him.

C Sal Perez to move to top 5, Evan Gattis will hit a boatload of homers

1B: Belt in any league and Adam LaRoche in OBP

2B: I think 2B is pretty deep, which I think puts me in the minority. Alexander Guerrero is scaring everyone off, but he can hit which means he'll play.

SS: Jed Lowrie is good value IMO

3B: Chris Johnson, todd Frazier, and David Freese can be had very cheap as great fill guys at a shallow position

OF: Junior Lake, Pagan, Aoki, Ruf

Guys I don't care for: Hanley, Phiilips, Andrus, Kinsler and Trumbo. I'm still iffy on rookie pitchers, I think people are spending too much to find the next Fernandez and Harvey when that guy might not exist this year.
Click to expand...
Almost all of this. :hifive:

 
Doctor Detroit said:
Long Ball Larry said:
E-Z Glider said:
Using the list above, I like...

C - Ramos (11), Gattis (10)

1B - Teixieria (28) Moreland (46)

2B - Bonifacio (34), Ackley (26)

3B - Headley (17), Moustakas (23)

SS - Asdrubal (12), Gordon (25)

OF - Heyward (24), J Hamilton (25)

SP - Cole (22), Cashner (39), Estrada (55)
Click to expand...
Yeah, am I missing something on Headley? Guy was uber-productive in 2012. In 2013, he had the lowest BABIP of career (though not a crazy drop-off from the year before) and he had the highest LD% of his career. I guess he doesn't have a track record before 2012, but seems like a decent chance at bouncing back.
Click to expand...
Contract year too
Click to expand...
This isn't working out at all. :thumbdown:

Matt Holliday on the bust list so far, can't say I saw that coming. Guy hits and hits and hits, and now he doesn't.

 
Doctor Detroit said:
Doctor Detroit said:
Long Ball Larry said:
E-Z Glider said:
Using the list above, I like...

C - Ramos (11), Gattis (10)

1B - Teixieria (28) Moreland (46)

2B - Bonifacio (34), Ackley (26)

3B - Headley (17), Moustakas (23)

SS - Asdrubal (12), Gordon (25)

OF - Heyward (24), J Hamilton (25)

SP - Cole (22), Cashner (39), Estrada (55)
Click to expand...
Yeah, am I missing something on Headley? Guy was uber-productive in 2012. In 2013, he had the lowest BABIP of career (though not a crazy drop-off from the year before) and he had the highest LD% of his career. I guess he doesn't have a track record before 2012, but seems like a decent chance at bouncing back.
Click to expand...
Contract year too
Click to expand...
This isn't working out at all. :thumbdown: Matt Holliday on the bust list so far, can't say I saw that coming. Guy hits and hits and hits, and now he doesn't.
Click to expand...
I just traded for him.

Looking at his batted ball profile, the only thing that is really different is his HR/FB % is way down. BABIP is a little lower than usual, but not bad, but gb % is normal, o swing % normal, walk rate normal, k rate normal.

With his career avg hr/fb rate, he would have 12 homers now. In sure that he is declining, but I see him improving.

Headley - :shudder:

 
Doctor Detroit said:
Doctor Detroit said:
Long Ball Larry said:
E-Z Glider said:
Using the list above, I like...

C - Ramos (11), Gattis (10)

1B - Teixieria (28) Moreland (46)

2B - Bonifacio (34), Ackley (26)

3B - Headley (17), Moustakas (23)

SS - Asdrubal (12), Gordon (25)

OF - Heyward (24), J Hamilton (25)

SP - Cole (22), Cashner (39), Estrada (55)
Click to expand...
Yeah, am I missing something on Headley? Guy was uber-productive in 2012. In 2013, he had the lowest BABIP of career (though not a crazy drop-off from the year before) and he had the highest LD% of his career. I guess he doesn't have a track record before 2012, but seems like a decent chance at bouncing back.
Click to expand...
Contract year too
Click to expand...
This isn't working out at all. :thumbdown:

Matt Holliday on the bust list so far, can't say I saw that coming. Guy hits and hits and hits, and now he doesn't.
Click to expand...
:no: Seems like Headley's never really been healthy this year. I cut bait with him on his 1st DL stint.

 
E-Z Glider said:
Doctor Detroit said:
Doctor Detroit said:
Long Ball Larry said:
E-Z Glider said:
Using the list above, I like...

C - Ramos (11), Gattis (10)

1B - Teixieria (28) Moreland (46)

2B - Bonifacio (34), Ackley (26)

3B - Headley (17), Moustakas (23)

SS - Asdrubal (12), Gordon (25)

OF - Heyward (24), J Hamilton (25)

SP - Cole (22), Cashner (39), Estrada (55)
Click to expand...
Yeah, am I missing something on Headley? Guy was uber-productive in 2012. In 2013, he had the lowest BABIP of career (though not a crazy drop-off from the year before) and he had the highest LD% of his career. I guess he doesn't have a track record before 2012, but seems like a decent chance at bouncing back.
Click to expand...
Contract year too
Click to expand...
This isn't working out at all. :thumbdown:

Matt Holliday on the bust list so far, can't say I saw that coming. Guy hits and hits and hits, and now he doesn't.
Click to expand...
:no: Seems like Headley's never really been healthy this year. I cut bait with him on his 1st DL stint.
Click to expand...
Headley's peripherals all look pretty good. LD/GB/FB splits look good. Walk rate down a little bit, but overall plate discipline numbers look good.

BABIP is low at .241. Batted Ball distance is relatively normal for him at 287 feet. 2011 and 2013 were about the same (slightly lower) and 2012 was 304.

Maybe 2012 was a more of an outlier, though he did have good ISOs in the minors. Tough to get too optimistic about the total potential stats of any guy who plays in Petco, though.

 
Matt Holliday ever going to do anything? I drafted him for his great consistency, but he's just been consistently bad this year. Todd Frazier on the other hand....

 
Doctor Detroit said:
Matt Holliday ever going to do anything? I drafted him for his great consistency, but he's just been consistently bad this year. Todd Frazier on the other hand....
Click to expand...
I traded for him a few weeks ago because his LD% was still close to career, his BB/K numbers were the same, his batted ball distance was close to last year (though that was down from the prior 2 years), and his HR/FB rate was super low. I figured that would normalize and he would rebound and hit his projections

Since then, his LD% has dropped a point and his batted ball distance has dropped almost 5 feet.

He's still been an upgrade for me in my UTIL spot, but I'm starting to think that the homers may never come. Hoping that whole lineup will get it going soon.

 
Limp Ditka said:
Not sure these guys are going to bust, but I don't think that they live up to the ADP.

Carlos Santana - Don't like him moving to 3B. Being drafted as #3 C behind Posey / Mauer. Could see him dropping out of top 5 with Catcher being somewhat deeper this year.

Sure looked like this was going to be right for a couple of months and I'm certain he killed a lot of people that drafted him by getting outright dropped or sold low. Heck of a rebound.

Votto - Always great in OBP leagues, but are you really in this for walks?

Even without the injuries, he appeared set for a down year.

Kinsler - Last 3 year splits show he's horse#### away from Arlington. Can't see 81 in Comerica helping his numbers

Still surprised he's been as good as he's been. Hitting in front of Miggy can do wonders for a guy.

Segura - I think people are drafting off of his total 2013 numbers and he's going too high. OPS was .583 in the 2nd half? oof. Could see him falling out of top 10 SS.

This one was a no-brainer. Could have said top 20 and been right
Click to expand...
 
Limp Ditka said:
Better than ADP list

Matt Adams - His Sept is a sign of things to come. Top 10 1B this year

ugh. Dumbfounded that he's sitting at 12 HR at the 3/4 mark. PS - Learn to take a walk, big man.

Corey Dickerson - Probably won't get full playing time with Stubbs taking v LHP ABs, but he's not going to be the 110th rated OF

Been real good when he's gotten playing time. Outperformed his ADP, which was the exercise

Rafeal Furcal - He still has game.

And he still has a body made of glass.

Henderson Alvarez - Not a K guy and not going to net you a lot of wins pitching for the Fish, but ERA and WHIP should be solid.

This one was a no-brainer too, IMO. Solid depth 4/5th starter guy in any fantasy rotation
Click to expand...
 
These Long Ball Larry posts. Sheesh. His gn% dipped, but his BABIP is higher. His CPX.2 is showing signs of progress, but his LB/ROWF is trending downwards but in comparison to his VORP things are looking okay. But then you need to consider the ball park factor at night compared to the FIP of who he is facing on weeknights and then offset that with his FIWT in day games played on the road. His RBI+ has levelled off a tad but not as severely as his GORZ-PIK.

 
Fariq said:
These Long Ball Larry posts. Sheesh. His gn% dipped, but his BABIP is higher. His CPX.2 is showing signs of progress, but his LB/ROWF is trending downwards but in comparison to his VORP things are looking okay. But then you need to consider the ball park factor at night compared to the FIP of who he is facing on weeknights and then offset that with his FIWT in day games played on the road. His RBI+ has levelled off a tad but not as severely as his GORZ-PIK.
Click to expand...
Makes more sense than just picking the guys with the biggest dong, amirite?

 
"Good said:
Fariq said:
These Long Ball Larry posts. Sheesh. His gn% dipped, but his BABIP is higher. His CPX.2 is showing signs of progress, but his LB/ROWF is trending downwards but in comparison to his VORP things are looking okay. But then you need to consider the ball park factor at night compared to the FIP of who he is facing on weeknights and then offset that with his FIWT in day games played on the road. His RBI+ has levelled off a tad but not as severely as his GORZ-PIK.
Click to expand...
Makes more sense than just picking the guys with the biggest dong, amirite?
Click to expand...
You would first have to see all the guys naked and you'd only want to do that if you are attracted to guys. If I had the choice to do either, I'd go the Long Ball Larry route and get out my calculator and make way more out of fantasy baseball than is necessary.
 
Fariq said:
"Good said:
Fariq said:
These Long Ball Larry posts. Sheesh. His gn% dipped, but his BABIP is higher. His CPX.2 is showing signs of progress, but his LB/ROWF is trending downwards but in comparison to his VORP things are looking okay. But then you need to consider the ball park factor at night compared to the FIP of who he is facing on weeknights and then offset that with his FIWT in day games played on the road. His RBI+ has levelled off a tad but not as severely as his GORZ-PIK.
Click to expand...
Makes more sense than just picking the guys with the biggest dong, amirite?
Click to expand...
You would first have to see all the guys naked and you'd only want to do that if you are attracted to guys. If I had the choice to do either, I'd go the Long Ball Larry route and get out my calculator and make way more out of fantasy baseball than is necessary.
Click to expand...
I actually had those Verlander pics before the season, so I knew not to pick him.

 
Chase Headley - Post-hype sleeper?

Other general fantasy draft chatter? Thinking of limiting the players I draft to only those 28 and younger. I think that I am too conservative overall and need to get more upside. Thoughts?

 
Long Ball Larry said:
Thinking of limiting the players I draft to only those 28 and younger. I think that I am too conservative overall and need to get more upside. Thoughts?
Click to expand...
Not seeing it either.

You win redrafts with value, not upside, and certainly not some ageist BS doctrine. I'm not saying pick Beltran and Swisher but if there are some veterans like Ortiz or LaRoche sitting there late for you, draft them instead of reaching for some never wuzzer. If you're in a draft where the familiar names go early, then zag and wait for the young guys.

And get off of my lawn.

 
Doctor Detroit said:
I actually think Beltran is a great sleeper this year if you are basing his performance with about 450 PAs. :shrug:
Click to expand...
His ADP is in the 260-270 range which is really low. I think the problem will be trying to predict his days off. If Girardi starts him consistently against RHP, Beltran could have nice year as a fantasy platoon option. But you'll have to watch out for day games after night games or too many consecutive days in the lineup.

 
Long Ball Larry said:
Thinking of limiting the players I draft to only those 28 and younger. I think that I am too conservative overall and need to get more upside. Thoughts?
Click to expand...
Arbitrarily throwing out a huge chunk of the draft pool is only going to hurt you.

Veterans can have upside, too. A lot of my best picks over the years have been guys in their early-to-mid 30s coming off terrible years who bounce back to their career norms.

 
probably true that I am overreaching (though I wouldn't necessarily call it arbitrary). Really need to figure out a way to guard against being too conservative, though, because one of these years I will be stuck with Ben Zobrist when it falls apart.

Guy who won regular season in my league last year drafted Jose Abreu and Rendon way late, and got Calhoun, Dickerson, Springer and Polanco off waivers. All key guys that I was fully aware of and pondering, but just would not pull the trigger.

My counter was picking up Oscar Taveras twice ( :sadbanana: ).

Looking at the leaders on Fangraphs with their ages, though, it is definitely true that a lot of people would be left out.

But is it not better to try to bet on the guy who can go higher than the guy who has already reached his ceiling?

Maybe I'll just keep talking aloud to myself here.

 
I can see a general rule such as "the tiebreaker is always upside/ceiling". That pushes you a little bit in the direction you want to go without ruling out half the player pool.

I do think everyone should be playing for 1st, which is a factor here. It's just a matter of what type of risks you want to get you there. Personally, I like hitters who have done it multiple seasons and I'm fine with pitchers who haven't broken through yet. As a result, I'm pushing my risk away from hitters like Harper and Altuve and towards pitchers like Hahn, Gausman, Graveman, Hutchinson, etc. In return, I think my teams end up with more overall upside with safeish hitters early and risky pitchers late, than any team with just a pile of young players.

 
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