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Jeremy Hill, RB (LVR) (1 Viewer)

but I'm glad to beat this drum if it stops just one guy from taking him with an early first round pick.
At least it's nice to know you don't have an agenda.

The problem is, when earlier given the opportunity to offer WRs you would take in the late second (YOUR valuation) instead, all of them were gone by the late second, it is an incoherent argument.

Don't bang the drum so hard you break it.

 
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He was just drafted 20th offensive player in my 16 teamer. Contract is worth just under 5% of the cap (4 years). Mid second.

Running backs in order: Hyde (3rd O), Sankey (4th O), Freeman (7th O), Mason (10th O), West (13th O), Hill (20th O)

For those who struggle with math there were 3 LBs picked in the 1st rnd
That owner might as well quit now, no chance to win with that roster poison.
Rookies only obviously

 
He was just drafted 20th offensive player in my 16 teamer. Contract is worth just under 5% of the cap (4 years). Mid second.

Running backs in order: Hyde (3rd O), Sankey (4th O), Freeman (7th O), Mason (10th O), West (13th O), Hill (20th O)

For those who struggle with math there were 3 LBs picked in the 1st rnd
That owner might as well quit now, no chance to win with that roster poison.
Rookies only obviously
I know, but it really doesn't matter- he's poison!

 
He was just drafted 20th offensive player in my 16 teamer. Contract is worth just under 5% of the cap (4 years). Mid second.

Running backs in order: Hyde (3rd O), Sankey (4th O), Freeman (7th O), Mason (10th O), West (13th O), Hill (20th O)

For those who struggle with math there were 3 LBs picked in the 1st rnd
That owner might as well quit now, no chance to win with that roster poison.
Rookies only obviously
I know, but it really doesn't matter- he's poison!
Are you saying this because most of his value will be after his 4 year contract expires?

 
He was just drafted 20th offensive player in my 16 teamer. Contract is worth just under 5% of the cap (4 years). Mid second.

Running backs in order: Hyde (3rd O), Sankey (4th O), Freeman (7th O), Mason (10th O), West (13th O), Hill (20th O)

For those who struggle with math there were 3 LBs picked in the 1st rnd
That owner might as well quit now, no chance to win with that roster poison.
Rookies only obviously
I know, but it really doesn't matter- he's poison!
Are you saying this because most of his value will be after his 4 year contract expires?
Nah, I'm just poking fun at bostonfred for repeatedly saying that. He seems to think he knows exactly what his game log is going to look like and how fantasy owners are going to react to it.

 
. In an arbitrary, real world example above I showed that lots of fantasy owners would have gotten 1/10 the points from him in 1/4 of his starts.
So we shouldn't draft him based on some random game logs you created?

I think your focus on this player is far too narrow. I admit to a somewhat limited ceiling for Hill based on a timeshare, but I think the average dynasty player looks to draft guys that they think have talent and opportunity. The disagreement you are having here with most is the level of "opportunity" available for Hill.

The second hang up you seem to have centers on "upside" due to a perceived lack of opportunity. While I understand the point you are trying to make about upside and how it relates to your competitors, I think what you fail to consider is that in most leagues no roster is going to be perfect. If some one has two top 10 RBs, they likely are weaker at another position. There is a risk for any player that you take in a rookie draft. Drafting a lock for RB2 production (I realize Hill isn't a lock, but for the sake of argument let's assume he is) isn't necessarily a loss.

 
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He was just drafted 20th offensive player in my 16 teamer. Contract is worth just under 5% of the cap (4 years). Mid second.

Running backs in order: Hyde (3rd O), Sankey (4th O), Freeman (7th O), Mason (10th O), West (13th O), Hill (20th O)

For those who struggle with math there were 3 LBs picked in the 1st rnd
That owner might as well quit now, no chance to win with that roster poison.
Rookies only obviously
I know, but it really doesn't matter- he's poison!
Are you saying this because most of his value will be after his 4 year contract expires?
Nah, I'm just poking fun at bostonfred for repeatedly saying that. He seems to think he knows exactly what his game log is going to look like and how fantasy owners are going to react to it.
Come on, get with the program, clearly because Joique Bell only had more than 8 carries once in the first half of the season, and 1 TD in just two of the next seven games after his opening game outburst, Hill is fated to put up the exact same numbers in lock step fashion.

Instead, it would be better to trade the pick for Frank Gore, who turns 32 before the 2015 season, after SF traded up in the second for maybe the best RB in the 2014 draft, Carlos Hyde - that is going to be reaping dynasty dividends for a half decade or more. Championships!

Jeremy Hill, 21 year old, low mileage and another candidate for best RB from the class of '14?

ROSTER POISON

DRAFTING HIM WILL DESTROY YOUR ROSTER AND SEND IT INTO AN INEXORABLE DEATH SPIRAL!!!

 
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He was just drafted 20th offensive player in my 16 teamer. Contract is worth just under 5% of the cap (4 years). Mid second.

Running backs in order: Hyde (3rd O), Sankey (4th O), Freeman (7th O), Mason (10th O), West (13th O), Hill (20th O)

For those who struggle with math there were 3 LBs picked in the 1st rnd
That owner might as well quit now, no chance to win with that roster poison.
Rookies only obviously
I know, but it really doesn't matter- he's poison!
Are you saying this because most of his value will be after his 4 year contract expires?
Normally this is the juncture at which I would recommend you go back and read thru the last 2 pages of the thread. However, I like you too much for that torture and it would more than likely only result in massive confusion anyway. The gist. It's a barb at bostonfred for repeatedly claiming, in various fashions, that there is basically no room on a fantasy roster for RB2 types. Only stacked teams are acceptable and therefor all teams must have multiple RB1s or the roster is poisoned.

 
It's a barb at bostonfred for repeatedly claiming, in various fashions, that there is basically no room on a fantasy roster for RB2 types. Only stacked teams are acceptable and therefor all teams must have multiple RB1s or the roster is poisoned.
That's not how I interpreted his message. He's saying inconsistent RB2's are toxic, not RB2's in general... That's how I took it, and I actually agree with him in a general sense.

In this specific case, I'm not convinced that this won't morph into a 50/50 touch timeshare, with Gio getting more catches, but Hill getting more carries and the goal line love. I suspect Hill will prove to be the more capable inside runner.

 
Rotoworld:

The Cincinnati Enquirer's Paul Dehner expects Bengals second-round RB Jeremy Hill to see 10-15 carries per game.

Dehner also believes there's "no chance" BenJarvus Green-Ellis wins the short-yardage job over Hill behind Giovani Bernard. If Hill is to see 10-15 totes a week, he'd finish the season in the 160-240 carries range. While anything over 200 might be asking too much, the writing is on the wall for Hill to be a major contributor as OC Hue Jackson implements his run-heavy tendencies. We've been hammering Hill as a real value pick at his current late-9th-round ADP.

Source: Paul Dehner on Twitter

Aug 6 - 6:54 PM
 
Rotoworld:

Jeremy Hill - RB - Bengals

Rookie RB Jeremy Hill is practicing at Bengals camp after suffering a shoulder injury in Saturday night's preseason game.

Hill tweeted after the game that his shoulder is "fine," and he's practicing without limitations. Bengals beat writer Paul Dehner has projected Hill for 10-15 carries per game this season, but to this point Giovani Bernard has handled every single first-team exhibition game rep. We'll keep a close eye on Hill's usage in the Bengals' regular season dress rehearsal. The rookie power back has 52 yards on nine carries (5.78 YPC) and two receptions for 13 yards through two preseason games. Bernard has 10-32, with two catches for 15 yards.

Source: Cincinnati Enquirer

Aug 19 - 8:20 PM
 
Rotoworld:

Jeremy Hill - RB - Bengals

Bengals OC Hue Jackson said rookie RB Jeremy Hill is "worthy of playing" with the starting offense and will likely get some work with the ones in Sunday's third preseason game.

Hill has worked with the second- and third-team offenses through the first two weeks of the preseason, though Jackson said he actually thought Hill had already gotten some run with the ones. Jackson isn't concerned about Hill's ability to sync with the starters, saying he thinks "that's a little overrated -- runners run." While BenJarvus Green-Ellis has been the second back through the rotation the first two games, Hill's clearly the more talented runner. He's over his shoulder "injury." We feel comfortable projecting Hill as the 1B to Gio Bernard's 1A.

Source: Cincinnati Enquirer

Aug 22 - 10:06 AM
 
Loving all the Hill news. I think he's going to be an upper echelon committee back when he settles in. I could see him being Joique Bell +

 
It's probably been covered, but how is he in the passing game, both as a receiver and a blocker? What would the Bengals do if Bernard was injured?

 
It's probably been covered, but how is he in the passing game, both as a receiver and a blocker? What would the Bengals do if Bernard was injured?
He's not going to be confused with Gio but is a capable and I'd say good receiver. LSU didn't use him much that way but he's got pretty good hands from the action I saw and looked natural catching passes at the combine. Pass protection is always a bit dicey for rookies. I would expect Hill to be ahead of the learning curve thanks to his offense at LSU which used a pro-style passing attack.

 
Loving all the Hill news. I think he's going to be an upper echelon committee back when he settles in. I could see him being Joique Bell +
So we're buying Hill as a borderline RB2 out of the gate? Is that the correct read of the thread here?

 
Loving all the Hill news. I think he's going to be an upper echelon committee back when he settles in. I could see him being Joique Bell +
So we're buying Hill as a borderline RB2 out of the gate? Is that the correct read of the thread here?
Maybe not right out of the gate. But I think he gets there soon. I like his talent. I like his situation.
I'm littered throughout this thread as liking the situation, and I like Hill quite a bit. Curious how much others are willing to trust him from the get go... Bengals have kept his usage rather under wraps in preseason action, though he's performed. BJGE still running ahead of him in games is confusing to me, but Hue's statement seems to indicte they're about ready to take the training wheels off.

 
I think this guy is going to frustrate us Bernard owners quite a bit this year. I bought into the hype last pre-season when Gio got all those goal line looks, and BJGE assumed the pounding role. Hill seems like he's going to assume many of those grind-it-out carries, and now there are not just one, but two, guys that may vulture Gio at the stripe.

 
I think this guy is going to frustrate us Bernard owners quite a bit this year. I bought into the hype last pre-season when Gio got all those goal line looks, and BJGE assumed the pounding role. Hill seems like he's going to assume many of those grind-it-out carries, and now there are not just one, but two, guys that may vulture Gio at the stripe.
Agreed Zam but I didnt draft Gio for the touchdowns, I took him for the PPR performances. Sort of like the poor mans Forte. I agree with the ones here saying he is going a bit to high but in a PPR if you can get him no earlier than the 3rd in a 12 team ppr, its good value.

 
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Anyone else worried this could end up to be a Williams / Stewart situation like Carolina's had for a number of years now?

Where you've got two very talented running backs and for fantasy purposes, they end up hurting the other's value?

 
Anyone else worried this could end up to be a Williams / Stewart situation like Carolina's had for a number of years now?

Where you've got two very talented running backs and for fantasy purposes, they end up hurting the other's value?
Not really. In Hugh's system, like in OAK, I believe OAK was top 3-4 in Rushing plays so if it stays the course in CIN, I would be very comfortable having one or the other depending on your league requirments. Like I said earlier, in a PPR you want Gio no doubt but I would grab Hill not just as a backup but as a flex as well for some weeks.

 
Anyone else worried this could end up to be a Williams / Stewart situation like Carolina's had for a number of years now?

Where you've got two very talented running backs and for fantasy purposes, they end up hurting the other's value?
No. The main reason is that there is no Cam Newton to syphon off roughly 700 yds and 7 TDs on the ground per season.
 
Anyone else worried this could end up to be a Williams / Stewart situation like Carolina's had for a number of years now?

Where you've got two very talented running backs and for fantasy purposes, they end up hurting the other's value?
Not really. In Hugh's system, like in OAK, I believe OAK was top 3-4 in Rushing plays so if it stays the course in CIN, I would be very comfortable having one or the other depending on your league requirments. Like I said earlier, in a PPR you want Gio no doubt but I would grab Hill not just as a backup but as a flex as well for some weeks.
The Bengals had 481 attempts in 2013.

In 2010 the Raiders under Hue as OC had 504 attempts, in 2011 as the HC they had 477. The Panthers had 505 and 428 in 2009/2010 (Williams and Stewarts best statistical years).

I think what the poster below describes would alleviate the worry more:

Anyone else worried this could end up to be a Williams / Stewart situation like Carolina's had for a number of years now?

Where you've got two very talented running backs and for fantasy purposes, they end up hurting the other's value?
No. The main reason is that there is no Cam Newton to syphon off roughly 700 yds and 7 TDs on the ground per season.
True, looking at Williams/Stewart's best statistical seasons together was 2009/2010. Everything's statistically rushing wise has gone downhill since 2011, the year Cam was drafted.

It looks like Cam coming in just completely sapped their fantasy relevance. Nice catch jurb.

 
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Per rotoworld.com

Updating a previous item, BenJarvus Green-Ellis is sidelined by a hip injury at Bengals camp.

The Cincinnati Enquirer previously called the injury "unknown." Law Firm has "worked minimally" since the Bengals' second preseason game, and was not on the practice field Friday. He won't play in Sunday's exhibition contest.

 
Again, why do Bernard and Hill both have to be top 10 RBs every year to justify a higher than late second pick for Hill. Most teams don't have two of Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy and Adrian Peterson as their starting RBs. Most teams, on average, will have one top 12-14-16 RB (not all teams win with two great RBs, some strategies emphasize having top WRs or TEs, for example). If Hill is even a high RB2 for more than just one season, he is a player that teams could start, and offer a relative lineup advantage compared to other the RB2s from other rosters in different leagues.
They don't have to be top ten running backs every year. The problem is that Hill has a very low chance to be a top ten running back this year. He has a very low chance of being a top ten running back in 2015. He has a very low chance of being a top ten running back in 2016.

1) Because in EVERY LEAGUE, somebody will have McCoy, and somebody will have Charles, and somebody will have Peterson. In EVERY SINGLE LEAGUE, somebody last year had THE breakout player at their position, whether it was Foles, Moreno, Antonio Brown, Julius Thomas or the Kansas City defense. Just because you need to outscore the team with the 24th best running back, doesn't mean that drafting the 23rd best running back is a good option.

2) I don't want to be better than the five teams that are starting the worst RB2s in the league, either. That's not an advantage. If I want an advantage, I need to be better than more than half of the teams at the position. So in a league that starts two RBs, the least useful guy that is actually helpful to your team each week isn't RB24, it's RB18. Drafting a guy whose upside - even from the more optimistic posters in here - is RB12 doesn't give you much of an advantage. Having a high degree of confidence in him being "top 30", as has been posited in here, doesn't do anything at all for me.

3) Most of us play in leagues where you submit a lineup each week. I'm not a big believer in "consistency scores" or whatever people are calling them these days, but if they exist, then a touchdown dependent committee back is first on my list of inconsistent guys. They can absolutely crush your team if you miss out on their big weeks, then chase those points on the bad weeks. If Hill's not the primary receiving back, and he's unlikely to receive huge carry numbers in any given week, then he's highly dependent on touchdowns or on breaking a big run.

4) The distribution of his big games matters. It's possible that Hill looks like a weak RB3 the first half of the season, and by the time he turns it on, you don't trust him. It's equally possible that he looks like a stud the first half of the season, then tails off. Then at the end of the year, when you're excited about his RB2 season ending totals, he was actually completely worthless to you. Or maybe he has good weeks and bad, totally at random. That's a tough guy to start in the Superbowl. Building your team around guys like this is like screwing yourself in advance.

5) A boom/bust pick like Freeman, West, or Mason won't hurt you like that. If they're not the starter, they're not the starter. It's not hard to leave a RB on the bench if their NFL head coach is doing the same thing. Of course, if you take one of them, you might get a zero from your pick - but you won't get a zero at the RB2 position. Unless you have some kind of unusual roster restrictions in place, most leagues allow you to have multiple running backs. A boom/bust guy has a better chance of distancing himself from the pack in your fantasy teams' stable, while a committee back may not.

But perhaps the most important reason is this: You SHOULD project more than 10 guys to put up top ten running back numbers. Because there are a lot more than ten guys who could do it this year. The top ten backs picks in redrafts all have a good shot, sure, but last year's top twelve included guys like Chris Johnson, Fred Jackson and Ryan Mathews. And LeVeon Bell and Reggie Bush were both top ten in PPG. Doug Martin and CJ Spiller arguably would have been top ten if they hadn't gotten hurt. Knowshon falls out of the top ten, but Montee Ball is right back in there in the projections. All of those guys should be projected to do better than Hill with a healthy Gio on the team. Every single one of them.

Danny Woodhead was RB19 in non PPR leagues last year, but he was basically garbage (in PPR leagues, it's a different story). He was RB27 in PPG, and he finished ahead of several guys who would have easily outscored him if they hadn't gotten hurt. I don't want a guy with RB19 ceiling. I don't even want a guy with RB12 ceiling. There are a LOT of guys with top ten RB ceiling. Hill isn't one of them.

That doesn't make him worthless, but it gives him a very specific kind of value - safe, consistent scoring for a team that is weak at running back but strong everywhere else, or a team that has several boom/bust options but needs a plan B, for example. Just understand what you're getting when you draft him.
this is a pretty bad way to approach and analyze. it is actually totally arbitrary to make these cutoffs for desirable rb. rb 12 is great to have when you are loaded at other positions and/or also have rb13. rb12 is great to draft when no other options would have finished close to that. likewise with rb 24 or rb27 or whatever. its about picking the best players available. its about building the best team possible. if you load up on wr and then draft rb12 in the 5th round, then that is a huge coup. if i project a guy to finish as rb 12, and he is going very late, then he is a player you should target.

 
It's hardly unusual in this thread for someone to disagree with my point by saying that mediocre running backs can be valuable. I made my case and i stand by it. Not interested in rehashing it again but I appreciate the response.

 
Per Bengals.com

Hill changed the tenor of Sunday’s game, didn’t he? His power running is going to be a boon against Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Bernard didn’t have a whole lot of help and still made something out of nothing when he could. It looks like Bernard and Hill could both get about 200 attempts. Green-Ellis (hip) has been chewed up the last few games, and it makes you wonder if Thursday is his last game as a Bengal. The injury situation will have a lot to say about that. You have to figure it’s why they kept this many backs in the first place. Burkhead (knee) is walking without a brace or limp and it sounds like Peerman (hip) is going to be OK.
 
Music to my ears. After drafting upside down and grabbing Hill late, this is exactly the kind of news I and other Hill owners want to be reading.

 
Given how much the team wants to pound the ball, if Gio doesn't step up his game he may be the one on the wrong side of the RBBC.

 
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I think this guy is going to frustrate us Bernard owners quite a bit this year. I bought into the hype last pre-season when Gio got all those goal line looks, and BJGE assumed the pounding role. Hill seems like he's going to assume many of those grind-it-out carries, and now there are not just one, but two, guys that may vulture Gio at the stripe.
I don't agree that anyone vultured Gio's touchdowns last year.

 
I think this guy is going to frustrate us Bernard owners quite a bit this year. I bought into the hype last pre-season when Gio got all those goal line looks, and BJGE assumed the pounding role. Hill seems like he's going to assume many of those grind-it-out carries, and now there are not just one, but two, guys that may vulture Gio at the stripe.
I don't agree that anyone vultured Gio's touchdowns last year.
Could be wrong, but I think BJGE got the bulk of the short yardage TDs as the season progressed.

 
As a Gio owner this is starting to worry me. Granted, the"200 vs. 200" carries is pure speculation by a beat writer, but it is a little concerning for those of us that drafted him in the late 2nd round.

 
Didn't Gio play every series with the ones in the third (and most significant) preseason game? I don't know why you'd be worried about him now as opposed to in May, June, or July. It's not like Hill has seized the starting job and looked like a monster.

I think Cincy's plan for Hill is probably pretty straightforward. They gave BJGE 220 carries last season and he rewarded them with some of the worst performance of any heavily-utilized RB in the league. That being the case, I'm sure they were eager to upgrade that position. Obviously they think Hill can do exactly that for them. If he can handle 180-230 carries at 3.8-4.2 YPC then he'll be a nice little boost over what they got from BJGE last season. I don't think he's likely to relegate Gio to a bit player role, at least not any more than Gio was relegated to such a role last season when BJGE had a big slice of the pie.

 
Gio looked terrible in 3rd game.
No he didn't. The oline looked terrible. Let's wait until the season starts before we throw dirt on Gio.

If anything, the 3rd preseason game showed that Gio is going to be on the field a lot.

I don't think Gio is going to get 300 carries, but he's going to be on the field for a lot more snaps than last year, which should allow for him to get more receptions than last year.

 
There has already been talk about GL use for Gio in a positive way and no BJGE did not get the goal line carries. He got some but Gio got many as well.

 
Didn't Gio play every series with the ones in the third (and most significant) preseason game? I don't know why you'd be worried about him now as opposed to in May, June, or July. It's not like Hill has seized the starting job and looked like a monster.

I think Cincy's plan for Hill is probably pretty straightforward. They gave BJGE 220 carries last season and he rewarded them with some of the worst performance of any heavily-utilized RB in the league. That being the case, I'm sure they were eager to upgrade that position. Obviously they think Hill can do exactly that for them. If he can handle 180-230 carries at 3.8-4.2 YPC then he'll be a nice little boost over what they got from BJGE last season. I don't think he's likely to relegate Gio to a bit player role, at least not any more than Gio was relegated to such a role last season when BJGE had a big slice of the pie.
Sure, but people have been valuing him as if his role is going to get a lot bigger not stay the same.

 
Didn't Gio play every series with the ones in the third (and most significant) preseason game? I don't know why you'd be worried about him now as opposed to in May, June, or July. It's not like Hill has seized the starting job and looked like a monster.

I think Cincy's plan for Hill is probably pretty straightforward. They gave BJGE 220 carries last season and he rewarded them with some of the worst performance of any heavily-utilized RB in the league. That being the case, I'm sure they were eager to upgrade that position. Obviously they think Hill can do exactly that for them. If he can handle 180-230 carries at 3.8-4.2 YPC then he'll be a nice little boost over what they got from BJGE last season. I don't think he's likely to relegate Gio to a bit player role, at least not any more than Gio was relegated to such a role last season when BJGE had a big slice of the pie.
Hill got carries with the ones and outplayed Gio while doing so. And Cincy didn't take their top rated RB in the class to give him 180 carries, and they sure as hell aren't expecting, nor will he be providing them with, anything near 3.8 YPC.

 
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Gio looked terrible in 3rd game.
What are you talking about? I'm watching the game right now on DVR, and Gio looks fine. Does he look electric? No, but he's hitting the hole hard, catching the ball, making a good first cut, and picking up his pass blocking assignments. The OL isn't exactly helping him out.

You know who looked very good? Dalton, and for the second week in a row.

 

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