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Jeremy Hill, RB (NEP)

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Gio owner is currently offering up Riley Cooper and Kadeem Carey for him. I told him he's going to have to do better than that.

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Rookie season 2014

Week one: nobody started him.

I'm starting him at flex this week in a couple leagues where I need to swing for the fences.

+1

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Hill's work on the ground vs Bernard's is the key to Hill getting on the field, as he's obviously not going to outproduce Bernard in the passing game.

So far, so good for Hill.

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Hill looked great yesterday. Both running the ball and catching it. Gio is clearly the main cog in the offense and is the better receiver. Hill seems like the better runner, though. With Green sidelined for a few weeks this may become an ultra RB focused team.

As a note, Cinci (like they said this offseason) did use both guys on the field at the same time. They did it exactly like Hue did in Oak. Gio was lined up wide with Hill in the backfield.

If this usage continues both backs can be RB2 or better IMO.

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I love what I am seeing out of Hill, but remember that he only got 4 touches in Week 1, and they have some tough match-ups after their week 4 bye, so while I am pleased about his potential, I am not getting too excited just yet.

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Rookie season 2014

Week one: nobody started him.

Care to update this for week 2?

Count me among those that started him...in 6 of the 7 leagues that he's on my roster.

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Rookie season 2014Week one: nobody started him.

Care to update this for week 2?Count me among those that started him...in 6 of the 7 leagues that he's on my roster.

I started him this week as well.

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Rookie season 2014

Week one: nobody started him.

Care to update this for week 2?

Count me among those that started him...in 6 of the 7 leagues that he's on my roster.

Yes, I do care to update this. My point isn't to prove myself right, but to use this as a case study for RBBC backs on good teams. I'm fine with using the consensus start/sit decision but I'm surprised that the consensus this week was to start him, because that's not what i was hearing elsewhere.

I'm legitimately interested in these things if you want to take part. It doesn't really work if you guys tell me after the fact that you started him, though, for exactly this reason. If you could post before game time we can keep track.

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Week 1: nobody started him. 4 rushes, 19 yards.

Week 2: apparently everybody started him. Coincidentally he has 96 yards and a touchdown.

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Is this the Bold Predictions thread?

Cincinnati goes deep into the playoffs, led by the two-pronged ground attack of Bernard and Hill who have nearly 4,000 yards combined rushing/receiving between them.

:o

OK, so I exaggerated a bit. :)

Well, if they have 14 more games with stats like Week 2 then they will surpass my 4,000 yards prediction.

:excited:

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Rookie season 2014

Week one: nobody started him.

I'm starting him at flex this week in a couple leagues where I need to swing for the fences.

Doesn't see this, it was the last post on the previous page. Exactly what I'm looking for.
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Week 1: nobody started him. 4 rushes, 19 yards.

Week 2: apparently everybody started him. Coincidentally he has 96 yards and a touchdown.

I don't think everyone started him. I started him in 1 league but not another. Probably depends a lot on what your team looks like.

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Rookie season 2014

Week one: nobody started him.

Care to update this for week 2?

Count me among those that started him...in 6 of the 7 leagues that he's on my roster.

Yes, I do care to update this. My point isn't to prove myself right, but to use this as a case study for RBBC backs on good teams. I'm fine with using the consensus start/sit decision but I'm surprised that the consensus this week was to start him, because that's not what i was hearing elsewhere.

I'm legitimately interested in these things if you want to take part. It doesn't really work if you guys tell me after the fact that you started him, though, for exactly this reason. If you could post before game time we can keep track.

I told you that I was playing him last week, even though you didn't ask.

Rookie season 2014

Week one: nobody started him.

I'm starting him at flex this week in a couple leagues where I need to swing for the fences.

If you are genuinely interested in who is starting/sitting him, you probably should actually ask that question.

*EDIT - I see you noticed it in a later post.

If you really do want to know/keep track, give us a time you'd like to know by. I'll try to be consistent with it and own up on the weeks I start him and it doesn't work out.

Edited by Jrodicus

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Bernard (27-90-1 rushing, 5-79 receiving)

Hill (15-74-1 rushing, 2-22 receiving)

Hill had 17 touches (96 combined yards and 1 TD). Bernard had a career high 27 rushes and 32 touches. Seriously doubt they want to make a habit of that.

CIN was already out Marvin Jones and Eifert, than lost A.J. Green, so weird run heavy game script (Sanu did have the long TD), probably prompted by all the WR/TE injuries. Though that could continue for a while.

Hill does look very good. As was noted upthread, I think, he has a 4.9 yard per carry average.

Bernard has a 3.4 yard per carry average.

Through two games, Bernard is 41-138-1 rushing and 11-141 receiving, which looks unsustainable (may want to work Hill in more as the season progresses so they don't burn out Bernard before the playoffs, that was thought to be the rationale before the season). Prorated, that would be 328-1,104-8 rushing and 88-1,128 receiving. This would project to 410 touches and 2,232 yards (also join Roger Craig and Marshall Faulk in the rare 1,000/1,000 club). He could also raise the yard per carry average with some more explosive plays on the ground, which he is already doing in the passing game. Hill has been more explosive on the ground. Getting them both on the field at the same time even more could be viable, if Hill is the strongest runner, and Bernard already looks like one of the best receiving backs in the league, can be deployed as a slot WR and help cover/compensate for the injury depleted, thinned CIN receiving weapons.

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Week 1: nobody started him. 4 rushes, 19 yards.

Week 2: apparently everybody started him. Coincidentally he has 96 yards and a touchdown.

This certainly seems like an unbiased case study.

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I've got him on my bench and am not willing to pull the trigger quite yet. I know the coordinates are aligning for a good amount of carries ( AJ injury, good running game, Gio low YPC etc ), but I'd like to see how this week pans out as two weeks in a row of a decent level of work is a far far better base to trust a player on than the current single solitary week. If he does that then it looks like he is getting a nice level of work going forward and I'd be far more bullish. I'm more confident with the likes of Donald Brown and Bradshaw, who are seasoned guys and have good situations or match ups this week.

For the record, I've got a ragged list of RBs cobbled together with good WW pickups and deep drafting ( Spiller, Matthews, Bradshaw, West, Hill and Brown ), so its not like I'm sitting him behind studs even.

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Contemplating starting Hill over Lacy and Joique Bell. If Green does sit this week, I may just pull the trigger.

bell is a great play this week.

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Gio is cruising so far... 45 points and ranked number 4 in my PPR, well ahead of my early 3rd round draft pick. Any game the Bengals fall behind I anticipate Hill turns into a pumpkin on your fantasy stat sheet.

So far Gio averaging 26 touches a game to Hill's 10.5. I expect over the course of the season, these would be fair numbers to expect (prob slightly less touches for Gio), with Gio maybe picking up 15-18 carries a game and 4-7 catches. Any game where Hill doesn't get into the endzone, which should prob be 1 out of 2, he becomes a very risky start.

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Gio is cruising so far... 45 points and ranked number 4 in my PPR, well ahead of my early 3rd round draft pick. Any game the Bengals fall behind I anticipate Hill turns into a pumpkin on your fantasy stat sheet.

So far Gio averaging 26 touches a game to Hill's 10.5. I expect over the course of the season, these would be fair numbers to expect (prob slightly less touches for Gio), with Gio maybe picking up 15-18 carries a game and 4-7 catches. Any game where Hill doesn't get into the endzone, which should prob be 1 out of 2, he becomes a very risky start.

If AJ Green doesnt get hurt Hill doesnt see the field this many times and Gio doesnt get this many touches. Last week will not be the norm IMO

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Gio is cruising so far... 45 points and ranked number 4 in my PPR, well ahead of my early 3rd round draft pick. Any game the Bengals fall behind I anticipate Hill turns into a pumpkin on your fantasy stat sheet.

So far Gio averaging 26 touches a game to Hill's 10.5. I expect over the course of the season, these would be fair numbers to expect (prob slightly less touches for Gio), with Gio maybe picking up 15-18 carries a game and 4-7 catches. Any game where Hill doesn't get into the endzone, which should prob be 1 out of 2, he becomes a very risky start.

If AJ Green doesnt get hurt Hill doesnt see the field this many times and Gio doesnt get this many touches. Last week will not be the norm IMO

Gio with 20 touches week 1, as a Gio owner I'm happy with this and I think this is well within reason.

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Rotoworld:

Jeremy Hill - RB - Bengals

Bengals OC Hue Jackson says he "doesn't have a number" in terms of how many carries he'll distribute to Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard on a game-by-game basis.

This Bengals' backfield is trending toward a full-blown RBBC. "It’s how the game is flowing and how the guys are flowing in the game," said Jackson, who admitted he was mistaken to give Hill only four carries in Week 1. Hill handled 17 touches in Week 2, totaling 96 yards and a touchdown. "Last week I think I improved in that area, making sure (Hill) was out there and he made some plays," said Jackson. "... That’s why we drafted him ... whatever their name is, whatever it is they want to (call) themselves after, they’re just a tandem." Jackson did make it clear Bernard "is the starting tailback on this football team ... until he proves that he can’t or the other guy proves that he’s better."
Source: bengals.com

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Week 1: nobody started him. 4 rushes, 19 yards.

Week 2: apparently everybody started him. Coincidentally he has 96 yards and a touchdown.

I came very close to starting him in one of the three dynasties I own him in. After seeing the Falcons/Saints game, it was pretty apparent that ATL's front seven against the run is not good. Cincinnati has a very good OL. Made for a solid combo and could very well have seen him being started in quite a few leagues.

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To let you know where another Hill owner's head is at, my final roster spot in a non-ppr this week is coming down to:

Steven Jackson home vs. Tampa Bay

Danny Woodhead @ Buffalo

Jeremy Hill home vs. Tennessee

Brian Quick home vs. Dallas

My gut tells me Jackson as he's playing better than people are giving him credit for (4.3 ypc) and I expect Atlanta to be up on TB so this could be the first week ATL actually makes a commitment to the run game after being pass dominant in the New Orleans shootout of week 1, and playing from behind while being thrashed by Cincy week 2.

It's a close call, but again, these are the types of guys that at least this fellow owner is trying to decide if he should start over or not. Hope this helps give some perspective.

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I just got Hill in my 12 team ppr dynasty straight up for Trent Richardson ( already own Gio ). I don't know what makes me more happier...owning Hill or not owning TRich anymore.

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The Bengals ran the ball 45 times Sunday. Not sustainable at all. Hill looks great, but he's a clear #2 here and I think his volume in wk2 was just a product of how the game went. On the plus side, he took advantage and the AJG injury helps him.

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The Bengals ran the ball 45 times Sunday. Not sustainable at all. Hill looks great, but he's a clear #2 here and I think his volume in wk2 was just a product of how the game went. On the plus side, he took advantage and the AJG injury helps him.

The eifert and Marvin Jones injuries helped him, too. This is a perfect storm for him right now, makes some sense to ride it out while the going is good.

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The Bengals ran the ball 45 times Sunday. Not sustainable at all. Hill looks great, but he's a clear #2 here and I think his volume in wk2 was just a product of how the game went. On the plus side, he took advantage and the AJG injury helps him.

45 carries per game for a team is certainly not sustainable. I think that number comes down as well. With Green out/limited I'm not sure how much it comes down. For the short term at least. I think it's also not sustainable that Gio continues to get carries at a 2/1 ratio over Hill. Not if they continue to play at the same levels anyway. Hill simply looks like the better runner. I think we could see a near 50/50 split down the road. Gio will retain the better value because he will still see more passes.

Currently Gio leads Cinci in both rushing and receiving.

I'm starting Hill this week in at least 2 leagues. The 3rd I have him in I'm not sure, my RBs are pretty loaded there. Actually I'm starting both Gio and Hill in 1 of my leagues where we can start up to 3 RBs.

Edited by jurb26

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The Bengals ran the ball 45 times Sunday. Not sustainable at all. Hill looks great, but he's a clear #2 here and I think his volume in wk2 was just a product of how the game went. On the plus side, he took advantage and the AJG injury helps him.

The eifert and Marvin Jones injuries helped him, too. This is a perfect storm for him right now, makes some sense to ride it out while the going is good.

Keep pounding that drum.

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You know who's really good? Jeremey hill, thats who. Hes a stud. I mean, so is Aj green. Oh, and eifert. He's a tier one talent. And so is gresham. And that marvin jones kid. What a beast he's turned out to be. And sanu, too. But man just look at that giovanni bernard.

But forget those other guys, because if hill has an awesome year he could be a legit low end rb1. I mean, he would need to perform well enough to keep gio from being the lead back, but that's possible. He might not do it his rookie year, but hue jackson isn't going anywhere. Hue's a proven winner who will never lose his job. And forget the character concerns. I mean, its possible that there's an incident, but when is the last time a bengals player had an off field incident?

What I want to do is invest my first round rookie pick in a guy who, in his best year, might be a low end rb1, and who just has to fight for playing time against a highly touted running back, be a focal point on a team that's loaded with receiving weapons, and has character concerns, because their offensive coordinator, like every offensive coordinator ever to speak during summer said that this year, they want to run the ball more, and they like all their new players and also all of their veterans.

I don't know if that sounds reasonable to everyone else, but im going to bank my dynasty team on it.

Any lingering concerns about Gresham cutting deeply into Hill's touches?

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You know who's really good? Jeremey hill, thats who. Hes a stud. I mean, so is Aj green. Oh, and eifert. He's a tier one talent. And so is gresham. And that marvin jones kid. What a beast he's turned out to be. And sanu, too. But man just look at that giovanni bernard.

But forget those other guys, because if hill has an awesome year he could be a legit low end rb1. I mean, he would need to perform well enough to keep gio from being the lead back, but that's possible. He might not do it his rookie year, but hue jackson isn't going anywhere. Hue's a proven winner who will never lose his job. And forget the character concerns. I mean, its possible that there's an incident, but when is the last time a bengals player had an off field incident?

What I want to do is invest my first round rookie pick in a guy who, in his best year, might be a low end rb1, and who just has to fight for playing time against a highly touted running back, be a focal point on a team that's loaded with receiving weapons, and has character concerns, because their offensive coordinator, like every offensive coordinator ever to speak during summer said that this year, they want to run the ball more, and they like all their new players and also all of their veterans.

I don't know if that sounds reasonable to everyone else, but im going to bank my dynasty team on it.

Any lingering concerns about Gresham cutting deeply into Hill's touches?

Yes, on a fully stocked Cinci team he's just one more mouth getting fed. That's been my whole point all along. And that there might be sort stints where things worked well for him, like a stretch without aj green, Marvin Jones, and eifert.

I've been consistent in this thread and have bumped it repeatedly. I think this is a good week to start hill, if you have him, although i have lower expectations for him than what he did last week due to the abnormally high volume of team carries they had last week.

But as i said throughout the thread, he's going to have rare good stretches and occasional good games. Barring injury to gio - or in this case the top three receivers on the team - he's going to be highly inconsistent. And high scoring backups that tease you with occasional big scores en route to a mediocre season are roster poison. I do very much believe that, and I'm interested in testing it out.

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Sorry, my question must have been confusingly phrased, you responded as if I had asked if you are concerned about the entire offense, and if you think Hill is roster poison.

Just to be clear, you are concerned about GRESHAM cutting deeply into Hill's touches? Not the rest of the team, just Gresham.

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You know who's really good? Jeremey hill, thats who. Hes a stud. I mean, so is Aj green. Oh, and eifert. He's a tier one talent. And so is gresham. And that marvin jones kid. What a beast he's turned out to be. And sanu, too. But man just look at that giovanni bernard.

Any lingering concerns about Gresham cutting deeply into Hill's touches?

Yes, on a fully stocked Cinci team he's just one more mouth getting fed. That's been my whole point all along.
And I answered it.

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Since you brought it up (roster poison), just as a refresher, you are in a total of one league? And in that one league, all teams are stacked. On this basis, you have concluded that it is a typical state of affairs for all dynasty teams to be stacked in most leagues, and that a potential low-end RB1 is roster poison?

Kind of a silly question, but why would you assume it is typical for all teams to be stacked, with no breadth of experience beyond one league? Multiple people in the thread have attempted to convey this. As far as I can tell, you have completely ignored this input from others, and continue to operate under the assumption that most leagues have all stacked rosters. In the five dynasty leagues I'm in, not one resembles this fundamental presupposition.

To me, that is the fatal flaw with your method. Clearly if you are mistaken in this assumption, just because he may be roster poison in your league, that may not be relevant if most dynasty leagues don't have all stacked rosters. That is the main reason your take comes off as a hatchet job, imo. You reel off multiple roster poison posts stating, roster poison, roster poison, roster poison, are periodically reminded other leagues may not be exactly like yours, reply, of course, I know that, than resume steam rolling over what could be a more nuanced discussion, and jamming the point down the thread's throat, roster poison, roster poison, roster poison.

You said you aren't gathering the data to say I told you so. But you re-entered the thread after week one saying nobody started him. Since there is no way you could possibly know this, it comes off like I told you so.

Let's cut to the chase (because I've already read this novel, everybody dies in the end). What does Hill need to do to not be roster poison? Are you jumbling data from 10-12-14-16 team leagues, some with start 2 RB, some with start 3 RB formats?

I'm going to do a parallel study of the RB you championed so vigorously, Devonta "Three Down Skill Set" Freeman, by RBBC situational analysis and points scored. He is in a RBBC, too, but a four headed one, instead of the CIN two way split. How did he do last week, 1-2 points? Sounds like Freeman is a better example of your roster poison concept.

* A relevant point neglected in this "study" cough/hatchet job/cough is where Hill was drafted in each league. But failure to appreciate that context (despite repeated attempts to explain that many didn't draft him in the first round, or before Freeman and Mason, but continuing to pound and pound and pound and pound and pound and pound and pound and pound and pound and pound that he isn't worth a first - sometimes in the same post :) ) is par for the course in this thread.

Banging the drum works both ways. I'm going to keep banging the drum, so nobody decides to not draft Hill based on a hatchet job with a fatally flawed "all rosters are stacked" presupposition formed from participation in one league. The roster poison shtick is chopped off at the knees by the extreme narrowness of its perspective.

** Another glaring inconsistency was when you broke down what "every team is stacked" actually meant. You said maybe three teams would actually be stacked at RB. By your definition, that leaves 11 teams that are stacked at other positions (in a 14 team league, such as I think you said you play in). Elsewhere, you said, several times in the thread, if teams were stacked at other positions, Hill wouldn't necessarily be a bad RB to have on a roster in that context. It sounds like BY YOUR OWN DEFINITION INFORMED BY THE ONE LEAGUE YOU PLAY IN, that leaves a majority of teams, being stacked at positions other than RB, for which he wouldn't necessarily be roster poison. In that context, what sense does it make to keep banging the roster poison drum, when it is inapplicable to the majority of teams, even by your definition? Seemingly more evidence of a hatchet job.

I'm not clear on what the "study" is intended to reveal. If teams start Hill and he scores like a RB2, is that "bad"? What is the composition of their rosters? What if he scored more than other options, and the team wins by the margin of victory provided by Hill's increased production over their next best startable option, does it still count as "bad"? What if he scores like a RB1, but isn't started that week, is that "bad"? But what if the other two options that were started did better? Is that still "bad"? On a lot of teams, Hill probably isn't one of the top two RBs on the roster, he might be third, fourth or even fifth. What exactly is the no start data telling you in that case? Even so called "stacked" teams at RB probably aren't going to have 4-5 elite RB1s. Unless a team does have 4-5 RB1s, why would a potential RB2 be roster poison for virtually ANY team. It isn't possible for 14 teams to all have 4-5 RB1s (that would be 56-70 RB1s). If a team already has 2-3-4 options at RB that are better ON PAPER, Hill could still be great depth early in his career, and be used in cases of unexpected underperformance by other RBs, injury, bye weeks, for favorable matchup purposes. Any one reason by itself maybe not that compelling, but in aggregate, having a potential RB2 that is 3-4-5 RBs deep in your stable, to plug in on any given week or longer stretches of the season for any of these needs, could be the difference between winning a championship or not for some teams (in other words, pretty far from roster poison). Not only do teams not typically have 4-5 elite #1s, but most leagues don't have a majority of teams with RB stables in which 2-3-4 RBs beyond the starters are all some combination of as young, and talented as Hill, or have a clear path to being a workhorse, feature RB in the future (you have arbitrarily assumed Freeman does, and imo have potentially sold a lot of false hope for your pet RB, when there isn't any reason to think he won't also be mired in some kind of RBBC at best, only you are than stuck with a less talented 4th round RBBC member - that could just as easily be an example of overly optimistic opportunity poison). Simply do the math. What is 5-6 (RBs) per team X 14? That is 70-84 RBs. How many workhorse, feature RB with elite #1 production gigs are there in the entire league? Its been pointed out multiple times by several people throughout the thread, that you seem incredibly unrealistic with your expectations of a RB many got in the second round (some in the third), that he is basically undraftable if he doesn't have a clear path to elite RB1 status. How many RBs do in this draft? In a lot of leagues, Sankey, Hyde, Freeman and Mason went before him and he was the fifth RB taken. In a 14 team league, that leaves 9 other teams scrambling. Who is guaranteed to be a better pick than Hill after the top ones are off the board? Maybe West, or Crowell? Not both. Andre Williams isn't guaranteed to not be in a RBBC. Sims? Carey? Are they guaranteed to not be in RBBCs?

You mentioned you would rather trade a pick for Frank Gore. What do you think he is going to do this year, elite RB1? Hopefully RB2? So if Hill, who is a decade younger, is a RB2, that is roster poison, just so we have this straight for the thread? But if circa twilight of his career Gore is a RB2 and finishes in the same ball park as Hill, he isn't roster poison? And if Gore is nearing the end of even RB2 production, you are left with zippo for what should be most of the length of Hill's career. So weighing that out, you can have potential RB2 production for a year or so than nothing with Gore, or you could have potentially similar production (to Gore NOW) for many years with Hill. Do you generally prefer RBs in their 30s that probably aren't going to do appreciably better (RB2, in this case?) anyways, and retiring a lot sooner, than ones a decade younger? Or is this just an isolated case, chalked up to the pervasively negative, Hill is roster poison bias?



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What's lost in all of this is that by definition all teams can not be stacked. It's impossible. Only a few teams can be stacked in any league.

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Hill looked great yesterday. Both running the ball and catching it. Gio is clearly the main cog in the offense and is the better receiver. Hill seems like the better runner, though. With Green sidelined for a few weeks this may become an ultra RB focused team.

As a note, Cinci (like they said this offseason) did use both guys on the field at the same time. They did it exactly like Hue did in Oak. Gio was lined up wide with Hill in the backfield.

If this usage continues both backs can be RB2 or better IMO.

Can Gio work his way up to rb2.... <_< Looks to me that he is already a solid rb 1.

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Hill looked great yesterday. Both running the ball and catching it. Gio is clearly the main cog in the offense and is the better receiver. Hill seems like the better runner, though. With Green sidelined for a few weeks this may become an ultra RB focused team.

As a note, Cinci (like they said this offseason) did use both guys on the field at the same time. They did it exactly like Hue did in Oak. Gio was lined up wide with Hill in the backfield.

If this usage continues both backs can be RB2 or better IMO.

Can Gio work his way up to rb2.... <_< Looks to me that he is already a solid rb 1.

Why would he have to work his way up to RB2?

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