Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
zed2283

Jeremy Hill, RB (NEP)

Recommended Posts

Curious as to how that conversation with Bernard went down.

This is pretty big for Hill.

Hopefully bigger than Hill was when they played the Browns last time and Gio didn't even play.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone taking a stab on projections for Hill this weekend?

I'm afraid to assume anything about his touches, even w/ the news that he's going to be the "starter." I still feel like we'll need a TD out of him for a decent day. My trust is minimal.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone taking a stab on projections for Hill this weekend?

19/61/1 2/15

YPC seem low. I guess we're all interested in the total number of touches Hill will get. Close to 20 carries and 3-4 targets in the pass game would be really nice.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I like Jeremy Hill as a running back. Thought he was the best of this draft class but he did make some comments after the Browns won in Cincinnati that might come back to haunt him.

Add that the game is in Cleveland, the Browns defense has been playing really well lately, and Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis made a regrettable comment about Johnny Manziel.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/11835083/jeremy-hill-cincinnati-bengals-says-browns-worse-thought-being-routed-Cleveland

Jeremy Hill: Browns 'not that good'
Updated: November 7, 2014, 6:37 PM ET
... Asked whether the Browns were better than he previously thought, Hill said, "Oh no, not at all. They're probably worse than I thought, to be honest with you."

He didn't stop there.

"They didn't do anything special to me," Hill continued. "I mean, respect to them, they won the game. But that's all I'll give them."

Also, one of the leading Pro Bowl inside linebacker vote getters is Browns LB Karlos Dansby and he is expected back from injury for the game.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I like Jeremy Hill as a running back. Thought he was the best of this draft class but he did make some comments after the Browns won in Cincinnati that might come back to haunt him.

Add that the game is in Cleveland, the Browns defense has been playing really well lately, and Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis made a regrettable comment about Johnny Manziel.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/11835083/jeremy-hill-cincinnati-bengals-says-browns-worse-thought-being-routed-Cleveland

Jeremy Hill: Browns 'not that good'
Updated: November 7, 2014, 6:37 PM ET
... Asked whether the Browns were better than he previously thought, Hill said, "Oh no, not at all. They're probably worse than I thought, to be honest with you."

He didn't stop there.

"They didn't do anything special to me," Hill continued. "I mean, respect to them, they won the game. But that's all I'll give them."

Also, one of the leading Pro Bowl inside linebacker vote getters is Browns LB Karlos Dansby and he is expected back from injury for the game.

I don't think Hill is scared.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Now that Hill has the gig, he needs to learn to keep his mouth shut and just play.

I think he learned his lesson not to criticize the game plan to the press.

Ironically, the coaches seem to agree with him that he should get more carries, as he reportedly has the starting gig little more than one week after the incident.

One reason I liked Hill from the beginning is the hope that Jackson would run more than Gruden (not having much success in WAS). Dalton struggles at times in big games, and it made sense to take the ball out of his hands in those situations, imo. Maybe that will start to happen. CIN has an organizational history of being incredibly tolerant of HCs, so I'm not sure Lewis is on any kind of hot seat, but if Dalton continues to spectacularly implode in crunch time, at some point that could lead to blowback on Lewis and Jackson (especially after extending him). Dalton can be a good game manager, he isn't the kind of QB that can put the team on his shoulders and carry them to victory.

Another interesting dynamic this week is Manziel getting his first start. Maybe he will end up being a good QB, but at least in terms of experience, that is a disadvantage relative to Hoyer.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone taking a stab on projections for Hill this weekend?

19/61/1 2/15

Take away the TD and I think you nailed it. This feels a lot like fool's gold to me.

Not sure I would base my decision on a feeling. Cleveland ranks 25th in rushing defense and Hill will get at least 20 carries more than likely. There aren't too many plays better than that. Conventional wisdom says play Hill unless you really do have better options.

Edited by JohnnyU

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone taking a stab on projections for Hill this weekend?

19/61/1 2/15

Take away the TD and I think you nailed it. This feels a lot like fool's gold to me.

Not sure I would base my decision on a feeling. Cleveland ranks 25th in rushing defense and Hill will get at least 20 carries more than likely. There aren't too many plays better than that. Conventional wisdom says play Hill unless you really do have better options.

Making my point for me. The Cleveland D is no joke. Last time Cincy played Cleveland, Hill had 12 rushes for 55 yards. Gio wasn't even in the game.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone taking a stab on projections for Hill this weekend?

19/61/1 2/15

Take away the TD and I think you nailed it. This feels a lot like fool's gold to me.

Not sure I would base my decision on a feeling. Cleveland ranks 25th in rushing defense and Hill will get at least 20 carries more than likely. There aren't too many plays better than that. Conventional wisdom says play Hill unless you really do have better options.

Making my point for me. The Cleveland D is no joke. Last time Cincy played Cleveland, Hill had 12 rushes for 55 yards. Gio wasn't even in the game.

I wouldn't base this Sunday's results on that first game. Cleveland's run defense is still bad and Hill has played well this year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone taking a stab on projections for Hill this weekend?

19/61/1 2/15

Take away the TD and I think you nailed it. This feels a lot like fool's gold to me.

Not sure I would base my decision on a feeling. Cleveland ranks 25th in rushing defense and Hill will get at least 20 carries more than likely. There aren't too many plays better than that. Conventional wisdom says play Hill unless you really do have better options.

Too much at stake for guesswork. I gotta see it to believe it. Personally, I'm putting the Crow in instead.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone taking a stab on projections for Hill this weekend?

19/61/1 2/15

Take away the TD and I think you nailed it. This feels a lot like fool's gold to me.

Not sure I would base my decision on a feeling. Cleveland ranks 25th in rushing defense and Hill will get at least 20 carries more than likely. There aren't too many plays better than that. Conventional wisdom says play Hill unless you really do have better options.

Making my point for me. The Cleveland D is no joke. Last time Cincy played Cleveland, Hill had 12 rushes for 55 yards. Gio wasn't even in the game.

I wouldn't base this Sunday's results on that first game. Cleveland's run defense is still bad and Hill has played well this year.

Cleveland's run D is great. I don't know what you're talking about. They only allowed 6 rushing TDs all year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone taking a stab on projections for Hill this weekend?

19/61/1 2/15

Take away the TD and I think you nailed it. This feels a lot like fool's gold to me.

Not sure I would base my decision on a feeling. Cleveland ranks 25th in rushing defense and Hill will get at least 20 carries more than likely. There aren't too many plays better than that. Conventional wisdom says play Hill unless you really do have better options.

Too much at stake for guesswork. I gotta see it to believe it. Personally, I'm putting the Crow in instead.

I wouldn't call that a bad play, but you're sitting Hill for the wrong reasons.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You still haven't made a valid point.

Sure I have. If you have a talented RB that has proven to be effective this season and he's going up against the 25th ranked rushing defense and most feel he will get 20 to 25 rushing attempts + whatever receptions, in most cases you should start him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone taking a stab on projections for Hill this weekend?

19/61/1 2/15

Take away the TD and I think you nailed it. This feels a lot like fool's gold to me.

Not sure I would base my decision on a feeling. Cleveland ranks 25th in rushing defense and Hill will get at least 20 carries more than likely. There aren't too many plays better than that. Conventional wisdom says play Hill unless you really do have better options.

Making my point for me. The Cleveland D is no joke. Last time Cincy played Cleveland, Hill had 12 rushes for 55 yards. Gio wasn't even in the game.

I wouldn't base this Sunday's results on that first game. Cleveland's run defense is still bad and Hill has played well this year.

Cleveland's run D is great. I don't know what you're talking about. They only allowed 6 rushing TDs all year.

They've allowed 9 rushing TDs this year, to go along with 129.5 ypg and a 4.4 ypc. They're far from great.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ok, this is my last reply to you. I hate when threads get hijacked between two people, so I won't do it.

1. Cleveland is the 21st (not 25th) ranked rushing defense. The closer to 32, the tougher the D. Not sure you are getting this concept.

2. We have already seen Hill get full duties against the Browns. They crushed him. This is an indisputable fact.

3. Based on the above two tidbits, I am hesitant to drink the Kool Aid again, at least for this game.

4. I respectfully disagree with your above opinions. Hill isn't a lock for a great game. Could I be wrong? Sure.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone taking a stab on projections for Hill this weekend?

19/61/1 2/15

Take away the TD and I think you nailed it. This feels a lot like fool's gold to me.

Not sure I would base my decision on a feeling. Cleveland ranks 25th in rushing defense and Hill will get at least 20 carries more than likely. There aren't too many plays better than that. Conventional wisdom says play Hill unless you really do have better options.

I think the Browns defense matches up well with Cincy. With Haden on Green, Dalton's inability to throw downfield with any accuracy, and Karlos Dansby back at linebacker, this is a tough matchup. Cleveland's run defense took a significant hit when Phil Taylor went to IR after week 10 and Dansby was out several weeks. They aren't at full strength, but I think the 25th ranking is not how they are currently playing. I have no dog in the fight, but I would place my bet for Hill at 16/65 3/15.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Only six teams have given up more than their 129.5 yards rushing allowed per game.

That seems like a valid point by Johnny. Also, it looks like they have allowed 9 rushing TDs (not 6).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ok, this is my last reply to you. I hate when threads get hijacked between two people, so I won't do it.

1. Cleveland is the 21st (not 25th) ranked rushing defense. The closer to 32, the tougher the D. Not sure you are getting this concept.

2. We have already seen Hill get full duties against the Browns. They crushed him. This is an indisputable fact.

3. Based on the above two tidbits, I am hesitant to drink the Kool Aid again, at least for this game.

4. I respectfully disagree with your above opinions. Hill isn't a lock for a great game. Could I be wrong? Sure.

wat

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ok, this is my last reply to you. I hate when threads get hijacked between two people, so I won't do it.

1. Cleveland is the 21st (not 25th) ranked rushing defense. The closer to 32, the tougher the D. Not sure you are getting this concept.

2. We have already seen Hill get full duties against the Browns. They crushed him. This is an indisputable fact.

3. Based on the above two tidbits, I am hesitant to drink the Kool Aid again, at least for this game.

4. I respectfully disagree with your above opinions. Hill isn't a lock for a great game. Could I be wrong? Sure.

Have you gone through your entire FF career believing the bolded?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ok, this is my last reply to you. I hate when threads get hijacked between two people, so I won't do it.

1. Cleveland is the 21st (not 25th) ranked rushing defense. The closer to 32, the tougher the D. Not sure you are getting this concept.

2. We have already seen Hill get full duties against the Browns. They crushed him. This is an indisputable fact.

3. Based on the above two tidbits, I am hesitant to drink the Kool Aid again, at least for this game.

4. I respectfully disagree with your above opinions. Hill isn't a lock for a great game. Could I be wrong? Sure.

Wrong on that one I have highlighted red. Also, nice hedging with the "Could I be wrong? Sure" comment.

Edited by JohnnyU

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ok, this is my last reply to you. I hate when threads get hijacked between two people, so I won't do it.

1. Cleveland is the 21st (not 25th) ranked rushing defense. The closer to 32, the tougher the D. Not sure you are getting this concept.

2. We have already seen Hill get full duties against the Browns. They crushed him. This is an indisputable fact.

3. Based on the above two tidbits, I am hesitant to drink the Kool Aid again, at least for this game.

4. I respectfully disagree with your above opinions. Hill isn't a lock for a great game. Could I be wrong? Sure.

Have you gone through your entire FF career believing the bolded?

Dude.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here is a list of NFL rushing defense stats sorted by rushing yards allowed. CLE is seventh worst. Check out the column and you will find #1 DET has allowed the least (about 62?) and #32 TEN the most (about 140?).

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/stats/byteam?group=Defense&cat=Rushing

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Everyone keeps bringing up the Cleveland vs Cin game earlier this year...but it was a Thursday night game.

Most of the Thursday night games have been a mess.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here is a list of NFL rushing defense stats sorted by rushing yards allowed. CLE is seventh worst. Check out the column and you will find #1 DET has allowed the least (about 62?) and #32 TEN the most (about 140?).

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/stats/byteam?group=Defense&cat=Rushing

Thanks for the info. I guess everybody has their own resources they go by.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ok, this is my last reply to you. I hate when threads get hijacked between two people, so I won't do it.

1. Cleveland is the 21st (not 25th) ranked rushing defense. The closer to 32, the tougher the D. Not sure you are getting this concept.

2. We have already seen Hill get full duties against the Browns. They crushed him. This is an indisputable fact.

3. Based on the above two tidbits, I am hesitant to drink the Kool Aid again, at least for this game.

4. I respectfully disagree with your above opinions. Hill isn't a lock for a great game. Could I be wrong? Sure.

Have you gone through your entire FF career believing the bolded?

Dude.

Did you really not know that you were talking about something different than everyone else? When people talk about how good a rushing D is, the default is to discuss it in "real life" terms.

In any event, Cleveland is still not "great" in terms of fantasy points given up to RBs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The first stat has CLE at 21st best, and PPG, not really the point in question.

The second stat has them 19th best, is blended and includes RB receiving numbers.

By rushing yards allowed, they are seventh worst in the league.

Nobody is disagreeing Hill didn't have a great game last time. Another difference and possible factor is Manziel is starting this week.

* BTW, Crowell had about 40 yards and 1 TD last game against CIN, no receiving stats. I could see some people preferring him, just wanted to make clear that 32 means 32 and 1 means 1, 32 doesn't mean 1 and 1 doesn't mean 32. This is the case, even in the alternate stats you have furnished.

** Also worth pointing out, in the other two games Hill has started and played without Bernard, he had 150+ yards each time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here is a list of NFL rushing defense stats sorted by rushing yards allowed. CLE is seventh worst. Check out the column and you will find #1 DET has allowed the least (about 62?) and #32 TEN the most (about 140?).

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/stats/byteam?group=Defense&cat=Rushing

Thanks for the info. I guess everybody has their own resources they go by.

Not really, if they just say "defense is ranked 1st" without any other qualifying words, it always means 1st is the toughest defense.

Your FFToolbox link specifically said "ranked X in POINTS ALLOWED", which is self-explanitory.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, no, CLE has a pretty bad run defense. Without being ultra scientific you can pretty much tell by looking at total rush yds allowed and yds per carry. But more than anything there is a big gap between how good their pass coverage is and how good their run defense is. PFF have them as the clear #1 in pass coverage, ranked #17 in run defense. As you might know the PFF grades measure each individual player on each individual play so it says more about individual performance than team performance, but Football Outsiders have them ranked as #2 in pass defense and #29 in run defense by their DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which measures efficiency adjusted for situation and opponent).

That being said CLE might stack the box and force Dalton to beat them through the air, as defensive coordinators generally likes to do, and with Haden on Green and CLE being great at covering RBs in the passing game that would push targets in the direction of Sanu and Gresham. If I were Pettine I'd be pretty comfortable with that game plan.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone taking a stab on projections for Hill this weekend?

19/61/1 2/15

Take away the TD and I think you nailed it. This feels a lot like fool's gold to me.

I think the other parts of Cincy O will have success so I see them giving him some chances in the red zone and trying to run him with the lead. I'm a little skeptical it will work that well between Andre out, Browns geared up to stop him, and probably running with the lead. Lots of carries, worried about the YPC, good chance for TD. That's how I see it at least.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, no, CLE has a pretty bad run defense. Without being ultra scientific you can pretty much tell by looking at total rush yds allowed and yds per carry. But more than anything there is a big gap between how good their pass coverage is and how good their run defense is. PFF have them as the clear #1 in pass coverage, ranked #17 in run defense. As you might know the PFF grades measure each individual player on each individual play so it says more about individual performance than team performance, but Football Outsiders have them ranked as #2 in pass defense and #29 in run defense by their DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average which measures efficiency adjusted for situation and opponent).

That being said CLE might stack the box and force Dalton to beat them through the air, as defensive coordinators generally likes to do, and with Haden on Green and CLE being great at covering RBs in the passing game that would push targets in the direction of Sanu and Gresham. If I were Pettine I'd be pretty comfortable with that game plan.

Really good points.

It kind of begs the question (I don't know the answer), if they were already stacking the box in some cases, with poor results.

* Certainly ILB Dansby returning, if he is any semblance of his usual Pro Bowl form, is not on the plus side of the ledger for Hill in this game. I believe as of today, SS Whitner was listed as questionable (if he was earlier, now listed probable)?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone taking a stab on projections for Hill this weekend?

19/61/1 2/15

Take away the TD and I think you nailed it. This feels a lot like fool's gold to me.

Not sure I would base my decision on a feeling. Cleveland ranks 25th in rushing defense and Hill will get at least 20 carries more than likely. There aren't too many plays better than that. Conventional wisdom says play Hill unless you really do have better options.

Making my point for me. The Cleveland D is no joke. Last time Cincy played Cleveland, Hill had 12 rushes for 55 yards. Gio wasn't even in the game.

That's 4.6 ypc, which is quite good. The reason he wasn't able to do more damage was that Dalton completed only 30% of his passes for 86 yards with 3 interceptions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm thinking in terms of possible game flow here... Cincy isn't exactly stout against the run themselves. I can see the JFF/Crowell/West group hold the ball for chunks of time. Hue will panic, and allow Dalton to throw more than desired..maybe. And it's not like Gio will lurk on the bench all game, regardless what the intent is to have one guy get bulk of touches.

I see Hill w/ 17 touches, 85 total yds, 3 recep, 50% shot at a TD. I'll stick w/ what I said earlier: we need a Hill TD to be satisfied with an "o.k." game.

I have a gut feeling Gio takes a long one (40+ yarder) to the house this week.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm thinking in terms of possible game flow here... Cincy isn't exactly stout against the run themselves. I can see the JFF/Crowell/West group hold the ball for chunks of time. Hue will panic, and allow Dalton to throw more than desired..maybe. And it's not like Gio will lurk on the bench all game, regardless what the intent is to have one guy get bulk of touches.

I see Hill w/ 17 touches, 85 total yds, 3 recep, 50% shot at a TD. I'll stick w/ what I said earlier: we need a Hill TD to be satisfied with an "o.k." game.

I have a gut feeling Gio takes a long one (40+ yarder) to the house this week.

Spoken like true loyal Gio owner.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm thinking in terms of possible game flow here... Cincy isn't exactly stout against the run themselves. I can see the JFF/Crowell/West group hold the ball for chunks of time. Hue will panic, and allow Dalton to throw more than desired..maybe. And it's not like Gio will lurk on the bench all game, regardless what the intent is to have one guy get bulk of touches.

I see Hill w/ 17 touches, 85 total yds, 3 recep, 50% shot at a TD. I'll stick w/ what I said earlier: we need a Hill TD to be satisfied with an "o.k." game.

I have a gut feeling Gio takes a long one (40+ yarder) to the house this week.

Spoken like true loyal Gio owner.

:shrug: I own both Gio and Hill. I just can't see Hue abandoning Gio, no matter the game scenario.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ok, this is my last reply to you. I hate when threads get hijacked between two people, so I won't do it.

1. Cleveland is the 21st (not 25th) ranked rushing defense. The closer to 32, the tougher the D. Not sure you are getting this concept.

2. We have already seen Hill get full duties against the Browns. They crushed him. This is an indisputable fact.

3. Based on the above two tidbits, I am hesitant to drink the Kool Aid again, at least for this game.

4. I respectfully disagree with your above opinions. Hill isn't a lock for a great game. Could I be wrong? Sure.

You may not be drinking Kool Aid but you're definitely drinking something. Lol at citing Cleveland as the 21st ranked rushing defense and then calling them a great defense. Yeah you have it backwards. They're not a very good rushing defense.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was having a rough day until I read the guy who said the 32nd ranked rush defense is the best. That laugh will put me in a good mood for at least an hour.

Gio - of course he will get some touches, but they will come when Hill needs a rest, or the occasional third down.

Hill - People forget he had 55 yards on only 12 carries in the first meeting. That's 4.5 ypc. Cincy abandoned the run and Dalton had a historically bad game.

This time will be different: 18 - 20 carries, 80 - 100 yards; 4 receptions for 20 yards. That's 14-16 PPR points right there. If he scores, it's a 20-point game.

Start him with confidence.

Edited by Jack White

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He gets the start this week over Tre la Soul. Better matchup.

Starting Mason over Hill. Although Mason has the tougher matchup, I feel he is guaranteed more touches, which IMO tips the scales in his favor. Home versus road helps too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.